Evaluation of motor vehicle crash rates during and after the COVID-19-associated stay-at-home order in Connecticut

Ecological validity of common behavioral decision making tasks: evidence across two samples

BACKGROUND

Clinicians and scholars routinely use behavioral decision tasks to assess real-world decision making capabilities. However, many common behavioral decision making tasks lack data on the extent to which they predict real-world risky behaviors. Across two pre-registered studies, and two timepoints, we assessed decision making abilities using common behavioral tasks and predicted participants' real-world risky decision making from task performance.

METHOD

In Study 1, 918 Mechanical Turk (MTurk) workers completed three decision making tasks in addition to assessments of real-world risk behavior: preventive health behaviors, COVID-19 vaccination status, and virtual social distancing task performance. In Study 2, 221 college student participants completed the Study 1 tasks plus additional assessments of decision making and real world risk and protective behaviors.

RESULTS

Across both studies, the selected behavioral decision tasks rarely predicted real world behavior and, when they did, the relationship was weak at best.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that these behavioral decision making tasks may not be good predictors of real world risky behavior at present, with some evidence that the specificity of the behavior being assessed matters (i.e. the closer the task was to the specific behavior being predicted), calling for additional ecological validity research, with a greater variety of tasks in the future.

Alcohol-related non-fatal motor vehicle crash injury in the US from 2019 to 2022

Background: Information on recent alcohol-related non-fatal motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries is limited.Objectives: To analyze alcohol-related non-fatal MVC injuries, 2019-2022, considering COVID-19 and Stay-at-Home policies.Methods: State-level counts of alcohol-related non-fatal MVC injuries (involving individuals age 15+) from Emergency Medical Services data in 18 US states, chosen for comprehensive coverage, were analyzed for the annual rate. The total non-fatal MVC injury count in each state served as the denominator. We used analysis of variance to evaluate annual rate changes from 2019 to 2022 and used robust Poisson regression to compare annual mean rates to the 2019 baseline, pre-pandemic, excluding Quarter 1 due to COVID-19's onset in Quarter 2. Additional Poisson models compared rate changes by 2020 Stay-at-Home policies.Results: Data from 18 states were utilized (N = 1,487,626, 49.5% male). When evaluating rate changes of alcohol-related non-fatal MVC injuries from period 1 (Q2-4 2019) through period 4 (Q2-4 2022), the rate significantly increased from period 1 (2019) to period 2 (2020) by 0.024 (p = .003), then decreased from period 2 to period 4 (2022) by 0.016 (p = .04). Compared to the baseline (period 1), the rate in period 2 was 1.27 times higher. States with a 2020 Stay-at-Home policy, compared to those without, had a 30% lower rate (p = .05) of alcohol-related non-fatal MVC injuries. States with partial and mandatory Stay-at-Home policies had a 5.2% (p = .01) and 10.5% (p < .001) annual rate decrease, respectively.Conclusion: Alcohol-related non-fatal MVC injury rates increased initially (2019-2020) but decreased thereafter (2020-2022). Stay-at-home policies effectively reduced these rates.

Linking crash and breathalyzer data in Connecticut

OBJECTIVES

To document the process of linking breathalyzer and motor vehicle crash (MVC) data for the State of Connecticut using a unique identifier in the place of personal and private information.

METHODS

Deterministic linkage methodologies were utilized in Microsoft SQL Server to join 5,634 (of 6,650) breathalyzer records to corresponding MVC driver records for the period of January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2022. Differences between the linked and original datasets were documented by comparing the consistency of frequency and proportion distributions of key variables.

RESULTS

Proportions of annual records, alcohol breath tests, and refusals were nearly unchanged when comparing linked and original breathalyzer data. When examining variables in the original MVC driver records, there were differences in the within-group proportions for sex and age, with an overrepresentation of males and drivers aged 26-to-40 years old. For crash and injury severity, the linked dataset had lower proportions of more severe injury records when compared to the original MVC data. Additionally, 1,007 breathalyzer records were not matched with an associated MVC record.

CONCLUSIONS

Linkage methodology is sound and produced quality matches. The use of a unique identifier provided a strong match qualifier in the absence of personal and private data. Changes in proportions for age, sex, crash and injury severity align with previous research. Potential missed matches may be attributed to several factors outside of the linkage process, including data discrepancies and varied reporting practices. Future studies will further explore these differences and incorporate additional toxicology data as part of a continued effort to fuze crash, citation, toxicology, and public health data. The end result will be a holistic, comprehensive, and multifaceted database for transportation research and education.

Racial and ethnic disparities in motor vehicle crash-related outcomes in North Carolina surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic

Long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on racial and ethnic disparities in motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries and death are poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize trends and investigate the heterogeneity of MVC-related disparities in North Carolina across several data sources. Crash reports, emergency department visit records, and death certificates from 2018 to 2021 were used to calculate monthly population-rates of MVC-related public health outcomes. We estimated trendlines using joinpoint regression and compared outcomes across racial and ethnic classifications. MVC and MVC-related injury rates declined in conjunction with NC's stay-at-home order, while rates of severe outcomes remained unimpacted. By December 2021 rates of MVC-related outcomes met or exceeded pre-pandemic levels, with the highest rates observed among non-Hispanic Black individuals. Racial and ethnic disparities in MVC-related outcomes remained prevalent throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. These results highlight the importance of a holistic approach to traffic injury surveillance when assessing the impact of MVCs.

Crash harm before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence for spatial heterogeneity in Tennessee

Major concerns have been raised about road safety during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, as the crash fatalities have increased, despite the substantial reduction in traffic. However, a comprehensive analysis of safety-critical events on roadways based on a broader set of traffic safety metrics and their correlates is needed. In addition to fatalities, this study uses changes in total crashes and total monetary harm as additional measures of safety. A comprehensive and unique time-series database of crashes and socio-economic variables is created at the county level in Tennessee. Statistics show that while fatal crashes increase by 8.2%, total crashes decrease by 15.3%, and the total harm cost is lower by about $1.76 billion during COVID-19 (2020) compared with pre-COVID-19 conditions (2019). Several models, including generalized least squares linear, Poisson, and geographically weighted regression models using the differences between 2020 and 2019 values, are estimated to rigorously quantify the correlates of fatalities, crashes, and crash harm. The results indicate that compared to the pre-pandemic periods, fatal crashes that occurred during the pandemic are associated with more speeding & reckless behaviors and varied across jurisdictions. Fatal crashes are more likely to happen on interstates and dark-not-lighted roads and involve commercial trucks. These same factors largely contribute to crash harm. In addition, a greater number of long trips per person not staying home during COVID-19 is found to be associated with more crashes and crash harm. These results can inform policymaking to strengthen traffic law enforcement through appropriate countermeasures, such as the placement of warning signs and the reduction of the speed limit in hotspots.

Urban Traumatic Moving Injuries Before and During SARS-CoV-2: A Multilinear Regression Analysis

Background The onset of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) saw an overall decline in traffic. Fundamental shifts in the pattern of traffic-related traumas were observed across the United States and beyond.  Objectives This study aims to predict changes in the length of stay (LOS) for patients sustaining traumatic moving injuries before and during the coronavirus pandemic.  Methods All moving injuries (bicycle accidents, pedestrians struck, motor vehicle/motorcycle accidents) before and during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave in the US were extracted from our hospital's trauma registry. The study period was from March 1st to October 31st of 2019 and 2020, respectively. Ordinary least squares (OLS) multilinear regression models were estimated with a significance level of 0.05.  Results In both periods, the Glasgow coma scores (GCS), ICU LOS, injury severity scores (ISS), and admitting service had significant impacts on hospital duration. Higher GCS scores increased the hospital LOS by 0.811 days in 2019 and 0.587 days in 2020. A higher ISS resulted in an increase in LOS by 0.207 days in 2019 and 0.124 days in 2020. The ICU admissions increased LOS by 0.82 days in 2019 and 1.25 days in 2020. Admissions to trauma services increased in duration by 2.111 days in 2019 and 1.379 days in 2020. Average LOS dropped from 3.09 to 2.50 days between both periods.  Conclusion Our trauma center saw significant changes in the admission patterns of moving injuries during COVID-19. We must therefore be better prepared to handle increased volume during public health emergencies and potential reductions in trauma utilization. Local injury prevention efforts may help reduce the burden on trauma centers during such emergencies as they did during COVID-19, allowing for greater focus on non-trauma patients.

Ironic effects of political ideology and increased risk-taking in Ohio drivers during COVID-19 shutdown

In March 2020, Ohio, along with many other states, enacted a stay-at-home order (i.e., "shutdown") to limit the spread of COVID-19. As a result of lower traffic, crashes should also have declined. We investigated whether crash rates declined in Ohio during the stay-at-home order and explore possible predictors for the decrease, such as reduced travel in compliance with the order, along with speeding, alcohol, and drug use. In addition, we examined whether support for President Trump would relate to greater travel and greater crashes (particularly during the stay-at-home order, when greater travel indicated lower compliance). The overall rate of crashes fell as people stayed home, mainly due to a decline in minor crashes. In contrast, the rate of serious crashes did not fall. Instead, percentage of alcohol-related crashes increased during the stay-at-home order, and the reduction in travel was associated with greater speeding-related crashes. Because alcohol and speeding tend to increase crash severity, these two factors may explain why severe crash rates were not reduced by lower traffic. Instead, it appears that those drivers remaining on the roads during the shutdown may have been more prone to risky behaviors, evidenced by a greater percentage of alcohol-related crashes across the state during the shutdown and greater speed-related crashes in counties with less traffic. In addition, county-level support for President Trump indirectly predicted greater rates of crashes (of all types) via increased travel (i.e., lower compliance with the shutdown), even while controlling for county-level income, rurality, and Appalachian region. Importantly, this mediated effect was stronger during the weeks of the shutdown, when greater travel indicated lower compliance. Thus, lower compliance with the stay-at-home order and increased risky driving behaviors by remaining drivers may explain why lower traffic did not lead to lower serious crashes.

Stability of Risk Perception Across Pandemic and Non-pandemic Situations Among Young Adults: Evaluating the Impact of Individual Differences

Previous research suggests a higher perceived risk associated with a risky behavior predicts a lower likelihood of involvement in that behavior; however, this relationship can vary based on personality characteristics such as impulsivity and behavioral activation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals began to re-evaluate the level of risk associated with everyday behaviors. But what about risks associated with “typical” risk-taking behaviors? In the present study, 248 undergraduate student participants completed measures of impulsivity, behavioral activation and inhibition, propensity to take risks, numeracy, and perceptions of and involvement in both risk-taking behavior and health promoting behavior (e.g., blood donation, registering as an organ donor, vaccination). Our study revealed that higher behavioral inhibition and greater propensity to take risks predicted greater likelihood of involvement in COVID-19-related risk behaviors, even after accounting for perceived risks and benefits of the behavior. Greater likelihood of involvement in social risk behaviors was predicted by greater numeracy and risk-taking propensity. Identifying as male, a greater propensity to take risks, and greater impulsivity predicted increased health/safety risk behaviors. Younger age, lower risk-taking propensity, and lower impulsivity were associated with a greater likelihood of donating blood. For the likelihood of registering to become an organ donor, increasing risk perception, both before and during the pandemic, was associated with greater likelihood of registering, but greater risk-taking propensity was associated with a decreased likelihood of organ donation registration. For flu vaccination, a greater propensity to take risks was associated with a greater likelihood of flu vaccination during the 2020–2021 flu season. Both cognitive and personality factors can predict involvement in risk-taking and health-promotion behaviors, warranting their continued examination.

A Descriptive Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Road Traffic Incidents in Sydney, Australia

COVID-19 has had tremendous effects worldwide, resulting in large-scale death and upheaval. An abundance of studies have shown that traffic patterns have changed worldwide as working from home has become dominant, with many facilities, restaurants and retail services being closed due to the lockdown orders. With regards to road safety, there have been several studies on the reduction in fatalities and crash frequencies and increase in crash severity during the lockdown period. However, no scientific evidence has been reported on the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on traffic incident duration, a key metric for crash management. It is also unclear from the existing literature whether the impacts on traffic incidents are consistent across multiple lockdowns. This paper analyses the impact of two different COVID-19 lockdowns in Sydney, Australia, on traffic incident duration and frequency. During the first (31 March-28 April 2020) and second (26 June-31 August 2021) lockdowns, the number of incidents fell by 50% and 60%, respectively, in comparison to the same periods in 2018 and 2019. The proportion of incidents involving towing increased significantly during both lockdowns. The mean duration of crashes increased by 16% during the first lockdown, but the change was less significant during the subsequent lockdown. Crashes involving diversions, emergency services and towing saw an increase in the mean duration by 67%, 16%, and 47%, respectively, during the first lockdown. However, this was not reflected in the 2021 data, with only major crashes seeing a significant increase, i.e., by 58%. There was also a noticeable shift in the location of incidents, with more incidents recorded in suburban areas, away from the central business area. Our findings suggest drastic changes in incident characteristics, and these changes should be considered by policymakers in promoting a safer and more sustainable transportation network in the future.