Thriving at the limit: Differential reproductive performance in range-edge populations of a Mediterranean sclerophyll (Olea europaea)

Does Phenological Plasticity Help or Hinder Range Shifts Under Climate Change?

Climate warming is predicted to shift species’ ranges as previously uninhabitable environments just beyond the leading range edges become suitable habitat and trailing range edges become increasingly unsuitable. Understanding which aspects of the environment and species traits mediate these range shifts is critical for understanding species’ possible redistributions under global change, yet we have a limited understanding of the ecological and evolutionary responses underlying population spread or extinction at species’ range edges. Within plant populations, shifts in flowering phenology have been one of the strongest and most consistent responses to climate change, and are likely to play an important role in mediating population dynamics within and beyond species’ ranges. However, the role of phenological shifts, and particularly phenological plasticity, in species’ range shifts remains relatively unstudied. Here, we synthesize literature on phenology, plasticity, and adaptation to suggest ways in which phenological responses to climate may vary across species’ ranges and review the empirical evidence for and against these hypotheses. We then outline how phenological plasticity could facilitate or hinder persistence and potential consequences of phenological plasticity in range expansions, including phenological cues, shifts in correlated traits, altered species interactions, and effects on gene flow. Finally, we suggest future avenues for research, such as characterizing reaction norms for phenology across a species’ range and in beyond-the-range transplant experiments. Given the prevalence and magnitude of phenological shifts, future work should carefully dissect its costs and benefits for population persistence, and incorporate phenological plasticity into models predicting species’ persistence and geographic range shifts under climate change.

Do differences in developmental mode shape the potential for local adaptation?

Future climate change is leading to the redistribution of life on Earth as species struggle to cope with rising temperatures. Local adaptation allows species to become locally optimized and persist despite environmental selection, but the extent to which this occurs in nature may be limited by dispersal and gene flow. Congeneric marine gastropod species (Littorina littorea and L. saxatilis) with markedly different developmental modes were collected from across a latitudinal thermal gradient to explore the prevalence of local adaptation to temperature. The acute response of metabolic rate (using oxygen consumption as a proxy) to up-ramping and down-ramping temperature regimes between 6°C and 36°C was quantified for five populations of each species. The highly dispersive L. littorea exhibited minimal evidence of local adaptation to the thermal gradient, with no change in thermal optimum (T_opt ) or thermal breadth (T_br ) and a decline in maximal performance (_max ) with increasing latitude. In contrast, the direct developing L. saxatilis displayed evidence of local optimization, although these varied idiosyncratically with latitude, suggesting a suite of selective pressures may be involved in shaping thermal physiology in this relatively sedentary species. Our results show that the biogeography of thermal traits can differ significantly between related species, and show that interpopulation differences in thermal performance do not necessarily follow simple patterns that may be predicted based on latitudinal changes in environmental temperatures. Further research is clearly required to understand the mechanisms that can lead to the emergence of local adaptation in marine systems better and allow improved predictions of species redistribution in response to climate change.

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.