Lessons Learned from Bugs in Models of Human History

Characterizing features affecting local ancestry inference performance in admixed populations

In recent years, significant efforts have been made to improve methods for genomic studies of admixed populations using Local Ancestry Inference (LAI). Accurate LAI is crucial to ensure downstream analyses reflect the genetic ancestry of research participants accurately. Here, we test analytic strategies for LAI to provide guidelines for optimal accuracy, focusing on admixed populations reflective of Latin America's primary continental ancestries - African (AFR), Amerindigenous (AMR), and European (EUR). Simulating LD-informed admixed haplotypes under a variety of 2 and 3-way admixture models, we implemented a standard LAI pipeline, testing three reference panel compositions to quantify their overall and ancestry-specific accuracy. We examined LAI miscall frequencies and true positive rates (TPR) across simulation models and continental ancestries. AMR tracts have notably reduced LAI accuracy as compared to EUR and AFR tracts in all comparisons, with TPR means for AMR ranging from 88-94%, EUR from 96-99% and AFR 98-99%. When LAI miscalls occurred, they most frequently erroneously called European ancestry in true Amerindigenous sites. Using a reference panel well-matched to the target population, even with a lower sample size, LAI produced true-positive estimates that were not statistically different from a high sample size but mismatched reference, while being more computationally efficient. While directly responsive to admixed Latin American cohort compositions, these trends are broadly useful for informing best practices for LAI across other admixed populations. Our findings reinforce the need for inclusion of more underrepresented populations in sequencing efforts to improve reference panels.

Three Open Questions in Polygenic Score Portability

A major obstacle hindering the broad adoption of polygenic scores (PGS) is their lack of "portability" to people that differ-in genetic ancestry or other characteristics-from the GWAS samples in which genetic effects were estimated. Here, we use the UK Biobank to measure the change in PGS prediction accuracy as a continuous function of individuals' genome-wide genetic dissimilarity to the GWAS sample ("genetic distance"). Our results highlight three gaps in our understanding of PGS portability. First, prediction accuracy is extremely noisy at the individual level and not well predicted by genetic distance. In fact, variance in prediction accuracy is explained comparably well by socioeconomic measures. Second, trends of portability vary across traits. For several immunity-related traits, prediction accuracy drops near zero quickly even at intermediate levels of genetic distance. This quick drop may reflect GWAS associations being more ancestry-specific in immunity-related traits than in other traits. Third, we show that even qualitative trends of portability can depend on the measure of prediction accuracy used. For instance, for white blood cell count, a measure of prediction accuracy at the individual level (reduction in mean squared error) increases with genetic distance. Together, our results show that portability cannot be understood through global ancestry groupings alone. There are other, understudied factors influencing portability, such as the specifics of the evolution of the trait and its genetic architecture, social context, and the construction of the polygenic score. Addressing these gaps can aid in the development and application of PGS and inform more equitable genomic research.

tstrait: a quantitative trait simulator for ancestral recombination graphs

SUMMARY

Ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) encode the ensemble of correlated genealogical trees arising from recombination in a compact and efficient structure and are of fundamental importance in population and statistical genetics. Recent breakthroughs have made it possible to simulate and infer ARGs at biobank scale, and there is now intense interest in using ARG-based methods across a broad range of applications, particularly in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Sophisticated methods exist to simulate ARGs using population genetics models, but there is currently no software to simulate quantitative traits directly from these ARGs. To apply existing quantitative trait simulators users must export genotype data, losing important information about ancestral processes and producing prohibitively large files when applied to the biobank-scale datasets currently of interest in GWAS. We present tstrait, an open-source Python library to simulate quantitative traits on ARGs, and show how this user-friendly software can quickly simulate phenotypes for biobank-scale datasets on a laptop computer.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

tstrait is available for download on the Python Package Index. Full documentation with examples and workflow templates is available on https://tskit.dev/tstrait/docs/, and the development version is maintained on GitHub (https://github.com/tskit-dev/tstrait).

Characterizing substructure via mixture modeling in large-scale genetic summary statistics

Genetic summary data are broadly accessible and highly useful including for risk prediction, causal inference, fine mapping, and incorporation of external controls. However, collapsing individual-level data into groups masks intra- and inter-sample heterogeneity, leading to confounding, reduced power, and bias. Ultimately, unaccounted substructure limits summary data usability, especially for understudied or admixed populations. Here, we present Summix2, a comprehensive set of methods and software based on a computationally efficient mixture model to estimate and adjust for substructure in genetic summary data. In extensive simulations and application to public data, Summix2 characterizes finer-scale population structure, identifies ascertainment bias, and identifies potential regions of selection due to local substructure deviation. Summix2 increases the robust use of diverse publicly available summary data resulting in improved and more equitable research.

tstrait: a quantitative trait simulator for ancestral recombination graphs

Summary

Ancestral recombination graphs (ARGs) encode the ensemble of correlated genealogical trees arising from recombination in a compact and efficient structure, and are of fundamental importance in population and statistical genetics. Recent breakthroughs have made it possible to simulate and infer ARGs at biobank scale, and there is now intense interest in using ARG-based methods across a broad range of applications, particularly in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Sophisticated methods exist to simulate ARGs using population genetics models, but there is currently no software to simulate quantitative traits directly from these ARGs. To apply existing quantitative trait simulators users must export genotype data, losing important information about ancestral processes and producing prohibitively large files when applied to the biobank-scale datasets currently of interest in GWAS. We present tstrait, an open-source Python library to simulate quantitative traits on ARGs, and show how this user-friendly software can quickly simulate phenotypes for biobank-scale datasets on a laptop computer.

Availability and Implementation

tstrait is available for download on the Python Package Index. Full documentation with examples and workflow templates is available on https://tskit.dev/tstrait/docs/, and the development version is maintained on GitHub (https://github.com/tskit-dev/tstrait).

Contact

daiki.tagami@hertford.ox.ac.uk.

Sources of gene expression variation in a globally diverse human cohort

Genetic variation influencing gene expression and splicing is a key source of phenotypic diversity. Though invaluable, studies investigating these links in humans have been strongly biased toward participants of European ancestries, diminishing generalizability and hindering evolutionary research. To address these limitations, we developed MAGE, an open-access RNA-seq data set of lymphoblastoid cell lines from 731 individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project spread across 5 continental groups and 26 populations. Most variation in gene expression (92%) and splicing (95%) was distributed within versus between populations, mirroring variation in DNA sequence. We mapped associations between genetic variants and expression and splicing of nearby genes (cis-eQTLs and cis-sQTLs, respective), identifying >15,000 putatively causal eQTLs and >16,000 putatively causal sQTLs that are enriched for relevant epigenomic signatures. These include 1310 eQTLs and 1657 sQTLs that are largely private to previously underrepresented populations. Our data further indicate that the magnitude and direction of causal eQTL effects are highly consistent across populations and that apparent "population-specific" effects observed in previous studies were largely driven by low resolution or additional independent eQTLs of the same genes that were not detected. Together, our study expands understanding of gene expression diversity across human populations and provides an inclusive resource for studying the evolution and function of human genomes.

Calibrated prediction intervals for polygenic scores across diverse contexts

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as the tool of choice for genomic prediction in a wide range of fields from agriculture to personalized medicine. We analyze data from two large biobanks in the US (All of Us) and the UK (UK Biobank) to find widespread variability in PGS performance across contexts. Many contexts, including age, sex, and income, impact PGS accuracies with similar magnitudes as genetic ancestry. PGSs trained in single versus multi-ancestry cohorts show similar context-specificity in their accuracies. We introduce trait prediction intervals that are allowed to vary across contexts as a principled approach to account for context-specific PGS accuracy in genomic prediction. We model the impact of all contexts in a joint framework to enable PGS-based trait predictions that are well-calibrated (contain the trait value with 90% probability in all contexts), whereas methods that ignore context are mis-calibrated. We show that prediction intervals need to be adjusted for all considered traits ranging from 10% for diastolic blood pressure to 80% for waist circumference. Adjustment of prediction intervals depends on the dataset; for example, prediction intervals for education years need to be adjusted by 90% in All of Us versus 8% in UK Biobank. Our results provide a path forward towards utilization of PGS as a prediction tool across all individuals regardless of their contexts while highlighting the importance of comprehensive profile of context information in study design and data collection.

Expanding the stdpopsim species catalog, and lessons learned for realistic genome simulations

Simulation is a key tool in population genetics for both methods development and empirical research, but producing simulations that recapitulate the main features of genomic datasets remains a major obstacle. Today, more realistic simulations are possible thanks to large increases in the quantity and quality of available genetic data, and the sophistication of inference and simulation software. However, implementing these simulations still requires substantial time and specialized knowledge. These challenges are especially pronounced for simulating genomes for species that are not well-studied, since it is not always clear what information is required to produce simulations with a level of realism sufficient to confidently answer a given question. The community-developed framework stdpopsim seeks to lower this barrier by facilitating the simulation of complex population genetic models using up-to-date information. The initial version of stdpopsim focused on establishing this framework using six well-characterized model species (Adrion et al., 2020). Here, we report on major improvements made in the new release of stdpopsim (version 0.2), which includes a significant expansion of the species catalog and substantial additions to simulation capabilities. Features added to improve the realism of the simulated genomes include non-crossover recombination and provision of species-specific genomic annotations. Through community-driven efforts, we expanded the number of species in the catalog more than threefold and broadened coverage across the tree of life. During the process of expanding the catalog, we have identified common sticking points and developed the best practices for setting up genome-scale simulations. We describe the input data required for generating a realistic simulation, suggest good practices for obtaining the relevant information from the literature, and discuss common pitfalls and major considerations. These improvements to stdpopsim aim to further promote the use of realistic whole-genome population genetic simulations, especially in non-model organisms, making them available, transparent, and accessible to everyone.

Latin American Trans-ancestry INitiative for OCD genomics (LATINO): Study Protocol

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a debilitating psychiatric disorder. Worldwide, its prevalence is ~2% and its etiology is mostly unknown. Identifying biological factors contributing to OCD will elucidate underlying mechanisms and might contribute to improved treatment outcomes. Genomic studies of OCD are beginning to reveal long-sought risk loci, but >95% of the cases currently in analysis are of homogenous European ancestry. If not addressed, this Eurocentric bias will result in OCD genomic findings being more accurate for individuals of European ancestry than other ancestries, thereby contributing to health disparities in potential future applications of genomics. In this study protocol paper, we describe the Latin American Trans-ancestry INitiative for OCD genomics (LATINO, www.latinostudy.org). LATINO is a new network of investigators from across Latin America, the United States, and Canada who have begun to collect DNA and clinical data from 5,000 richly-phenotyped OCD cases of Latin American ancestry in a culturally sensitive and ethical manner. In this project, we will utilize trans-ancestry genomic analyses to accelerate the identification of OCD risk loci, fine-map putative causal variants, and improve the performance of polygenic risk scores in diverse populations. We will also capitalize on rich clinical data to examine the genetics of treatment response, biologically plausible OCD subtypes, and symptom dimensions. Additionally, LATINO will help elucidate the diversity of the clinical presentations of OCD across cultures through various trainings developed and offered in collaboration with Latin American investigators. We believe this study will advance the important goal of global mental health discovery and equity.

Demes: a standard format for demographic models

Understanding the demographic history of populations is a key goal in population genetics, and with improving methods and data, ever more complex models are being proposed and tested. Demographic models of current interest typically consist of a set of discrete populations, their sizes and growth rates, and continuous and pulse migrations between those populations over a number of epochs, which can require dozens of parameters to fully describe. There is currently no standard format to define such models, significantly hampering progress in the field. In particular, the important task of translating the model descriptions in published work into input suitable for population genetic simulators is labor intensive and error prone. We propose the Demes data model and file format, built on widely used technologies, to alleviate these issues. Demes provide a well-defined and unambiguous model of populations and their properties that is straightforward to implement in software, and a text file format that is designed for simplicity and clarity. We provide thoroughly tested implementations of Demes parsers in multiple languages including Python and C, and showcase initial support in several simulators and inference methods. An introduction to the file format and a detailed specification are available at https://popsim-consortium.github.io/demes-spec-docs/.

Polygenic score accuracy in ancient samples: Quantifying the effects of allelic turnover

Polygenic scores link the genotypes of ancient individuals to their phenotypes, which are often unobservable, offering a tantalizing opportunity to reconstruct complex trait evolution. In practice, however, interpretation of ancient polygenic scores is subject to numerous assumptions. For one, the genome-wide association (GWA) studies from which polygenic scores are derived, can only estimate effect sizes for loci segregating in contemporary populations. Therefore, a GWA study may not correctly identify all loci relevant to trait variation in the ancient population. In addition, the frequencies of trait-associated loci may have changed in the intervening years. Here, we devise a theoretical framework to quantify the effect of this allelic turnover on the statistical properties of polygenic scores as functions of population genetic dynamics, trait architecture, power to detect significant loci, and the age of the ancient sample. We model the allele frequencies of loci underlying trait variation using the Wright-Fisher diffusion, and employ the spectral representation of its transition density to find analytical expressions for several error metrics, including the expected sample correlation between the polygenic scores of ancient individuals and their true phenotypes, referred to as polygenic score accuracy. Our theory also applies to a two-population scenario and demonstrates that allelic turnover alone may explain a substantial percentage of the reduced accuracy observed in cross-population predictions, akin to those performed in human genetics. Finally, we use simulations to explore the effects of recent directional selection, a bias-inducing process, on the statistics of interest. We find that even in the presence of bias, weak selection induces minimal deviations from our neutral expectations for the decay of polygenic score accuracy. By quantifying the limitations of polygenic scores in an explicit evolutionary context, our work lays the foundation for the development of more sophisticated statistical procedures to analyze both temporally and geographically resolved polygenic scores.

Efficient ancestry and mutation simulation with msprime 1.0

Stochastic simulation is a key tool in population genetics, since the models involved are often analytically intractable and simulation is usually the only way of obtaining ground-truth data to evaluate inferences. Because of this, a large number of specialized simulation programs have been developed, each filling a particular niche, but with largely overlapping functionality and a substantial duplication of effort. Here, we introduce msprime version 1.0, which efficiently implements ancestry and mutation simulations based on the succinct tree sequence data structure and the tskit library. We summarize msprime's many features, and show that its performance is excellent, often many times faster and more memory efficient than specialized alternatives. These high-performance features have been thoroughly tested and validated, and built using a collaborative, open source development model, which reduces duplication of effort and promotes software quality via community engagement.

Populations, Traits, and Their Spatial Structure in Humans

The spatial distribution of genetic variants is jointly determined by geography, past demographic processes, natural selection, and its interplay with environmental variation. A fraction of these genetic variants are "causal alleles" that affect the manifestation of a complex trait. The effect exerted by these causal alleles on complex traits can be independent or dependent on the environment. Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the spatial structure of causal alleles is key to comprehend the spatial distribution of complex traits. Natural selection, past population size changes, range expansions, consanguinity, assortative mating, archaic introgression, admixture, and the environment can alter the frequencies, effect sizes, and heterozygosities of causal alleles. This provides a genetic axis along which complex traits can vary. However, complex traits also vary along biogeographical and sociocultural axes which are often correlated with genetic axes in complex ways. The purpose of this review is to consider these genetic and environmental axes in concert and examine the ways they can help us decipher the variation in complex traits that is visible in humans today. This initiative necessarily implies a discussion of populations, traits, the ability to infer and interpret "genetic" components of complex traits, and how these have been impacted by adaptive events. In this review, we provide a history-aware discussion on these topics using both the recent and more distant past of our academic discipline and its relevant contexts.

Negative selection on complex traits limits phenotype prediction accuracy between populations

Phenotype prediction is a key goal for medical genetics. Unfortunately, most genome-wide association studies are done in European populations, which reduces the accuracy of predictions via polygenic scores in non-European populations. Here, we use population genetic models to show that human demographic history and negative selection on complex traits can result in population-specific genetic architectures. For traits where alleles with the largest effect on the trait are under the strongest negative selection, approximately half of the heritability can be accounted for by variants in Europe that are absent from Africa, leading to poor performance in phenotype prediction across these populations. Further, under such a model, individuals in the tails of the genetic risk distribution may not be identified via polygenic scores generated in another population. We empirically test these predictions by building a model to stratify heritability between European-specific and shared variants and applied it to 37 traits and diseases in the UK Biobank. Across these phenotypes, ∼30% of the heritability comes from European-specific variants. We conclude that genetic association studies need to include more diverse populations to enable the utility of phenotype prediction in all populations.