Risk of operative delivery for intrapartum fetal compromise in small-for-gestational-age fetuses at term: an internally validated prediction model

Prediction of adverse neonatal adaptation in fetuses with severe fetal growth restriction after 34 weeks of gestation

OBJECTIVE

To establish a predictive model for adverse immediate neonatal adaptation (INA) in fetuses with suspected severe fetal growth restriction (FGR) after 34 gestational weeks (GW).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study at the University Hospitals of Strasbourg between 2000 and 2020, including 1,220 women with a singleton pregnancy and suspicion of severe FGR who delivered from 34 GW. The primary outcome (composite) was INA defined as Apgar 5-minute score <7, arterial pH <7.10, immediate transfer to pediatrics, or the need for resuscitation at birth. We developed and tested a logistic regression predictive model.

RESULTS

Adverse INA occurred in 316 deliveries. The model included six features available before labor: parity, gestational age, diabetes, middle cerebral artery Doppler, cerebral-placental inversion, onset of labor. The model could predict individual risk of adverse INA with confidence interval at 95 %. Taking an optimal cutoff threshold of 32 %, performances were: sensitivity 66 %; specificity 83 %; positive and negative predictive values 60 % and 87 % respectively, and area under the curve 78 %.

DISCUSSION

The predictive model showed good performances and a proof of concept that INA could be predicted with pre-labor characteristics, and needs to be investigated further.

The association between a low 50-gram, 1-hour glucose challenge test value and neonatal morbidity

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between a low 50-gram, 1-hour glucose challenge test (GCT) value and adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes among patients receiving care at a single center tertiary care academic hospital.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of pregnant patients with a documented result of a 50-gram, 1-hour GCT performed ≥24 weeks 0 days gestation at a single tertiary care academic hospital from 2013-2021. Patients with a low GCT value, defined as cohort specific ≤10th percentile (<82 mg/dL), were compared to patients with a GCT value ≥82 mg/dL who were not diagnosed with gestational diabetes (GDM) to examine adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Additionally, these comparisons were repeated across patients with low GCT (<82 mg/dL), those with a GCT ≥82 mg/dL without diagnosis of GDM (heretofore referred to as normal glycemic screening) and patients diagnosed with GDM. Our primary outcome was a composite neonatal morbidity variable, inclusive of stillbirth, neonatal death, neonatal hypoglycemia with neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, neonatal hyperbilirubinemia with NICU admission, respiratory distress with NICU admission, and/or small for gestational age (SGA). Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to examine the association of low GCT value and the composite neonatal morbidity outcome, compared to those with the normal glycemic screening.

RESULTS

Of 36,342 eligible patients, 3,789 (10.4%) had a low GCT value of <82 mg/dL, 30,729 (84.6%) had a GCT value ≥82 mg/dL and were not diagnosed with GDM, and 1,824 (5.0%) had a diagnosis of GDM. Patients with a low GCT value were significantly less likely to be diagnosed with hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) (12.4% vs 16.3%, p < .01), undergo cesarean delivery (22.8% vs 29.9%, p < .01), or experience postpartum hemorrhage (7.8% vs 9.4%, p < .01) as compared to patients with normal glycemic screening. Compared to newborns whose mothers had normal glycemic screening, newborns of mothers with a low GCT value were significantly more likely to experience the composite morbidity outcome (OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08-1.27); this persisted after adjusting for potential confounders (aOR 1.18; 95% CI 1.09-1.29).

CONCLUSION

A low maternal GCT value after 24 weeks gestation is significantly associated with an increased risk of morbidity in the newborn, driven by higher rates of SGA. Patients with a low GCT value may have underlying maternal hypoglycemia or other glycemic dysregulation affecting fetal development and may benefit from enhanced antenatal surveillance.

Cerebroplacental versus Umbilicocerebral Ratio-Analyzing the Predictive Value Regarding Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in Low- and High-Risk Fetuses at Term

Background and Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes using the cerebroplacental (CPR) and umbilicocerebral (UCR) ratios in different cohorts of singleton pregnancies. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we established our own Multiple of Median (MoM) for CPR and UCR. The predictive value for both ratios was studied in the following outcome parameters: emergency cesarean delivery, operative intervention (OI), OI due to fetal distress, 5-min Apgar < 7, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, and composite adverse perinatal outcome. The performance of the ratios was assessed in the following cohorts: total cohort (delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks gestation, all birth weight centiles), low-risk cohort (delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks gestation, birth weight ≥ 10. centile), prolonged pregnancy cohort (delivery ≥ 41 + 0 weeks gestation, birth weight ≥ 10. centile) and small-for-gestational-age fetuses (delivery ≥ 37 + 0 weeks gestation, birth weight < 10. centile). The underlying reference values for MoM were estimated using quantile regression depending on gestational age. Prediction performance was evaluated using logistic regression models assessing the corresponding Brier score, combining discriminatory power and calibration. Results: Overall, 3326 cases were included. Across all cohorts, in the case of a significant association between a studied outcome parameter and CPR, there was an association with UCR, respectively. The Brier score showed only minimal differences for both ratios. Conclusions: Our study provides further evidence regarding predictive values of CPR and UCR. The results of our study suggest that reversal of CPR to UCR does not improve the prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes.

Comparison of ductus venosus Doppler and cerebroplacental ratio for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in high-risk pregnancies before and after 34 weeks

INTRODUCTION

The objective of the study was to compare the accuracy of the ductus venosus pulsatility index (DV PI) with that of the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome at two gestational ages: <34 and ≥34 weeks' gestation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 169 high-risk pregnancies (72 < 34 and 97 ≥ 34 weeks) that underwent an ultrasound examination of CPR, DV Doppler and estimated fetal weight at 22-40 weeks. The CPR and DV PI were converted into multiples of the median, and the estimated fetal weight into centiles according to local references. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as a composite of abnormal cardiotocogram, intrapartum pH requiring cesarean delivery, 5' Apgar score <7, neonatal pH <7.10 and admission to neonatal intensive care unit. Values were plotted according to the interval to labor to evaluate progression of abnormal Doppler values, and their accuracy was evaluated at both gestational periods, alone and combined with clinical data, by means of univariable and multivariable models, using the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Prior to 34 weeks' gestation, DV PI was the latest parameter to become abnormal. However, it was a poor predictor of adverse perinatal outcome (AUC 0.56, 95% CI: 0.40-0.71, AIC 76.2, p > 0.05), and did not improve the predictive accuracy of CPR for adverse perinatal outcome (AUC 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79-0.97, AIC 52.9, p < 0.0001). After 34 weeks' gestation, the chronology of the DV PI and CPR anomalies overlapped, but again DV PI was a poor predictor for adverse perinatal outcome (AUC 0.62, 95% CI: 0.49-0.74, AIC 120.6, p > 0.05), that did not improve the CPR ability to predict adverse perinatal outcome (AUC 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67-0.92, AIC 106.8, p < 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of CPR prior to 34 weeks persisted when the gestational age at delivery was included in the model (AUC 0.91, 95% CI: 0.81-1.00, AIC 46.3, p < 0.0001, versus AUC 0.86, 95% CI: 0.72-1, AIC 56.1, p < 0.0001), and therefore was not determined by prematurity.

CONCLUSIONS

CPR predicts adverse perinatal outcome better than DV PI, regardless of gestational age. Larger prospective studies are needed to delineate the role of ultrasound tools of fetal wellbeing assessment in predicting and preventing adverse perinatal outcome.

Prognostic Value of Cerebroplacental Ratio in Appropriate-for-Gestational-Age Fetuses Before Induction of Labor in Late-Term Pregnancies

PURPOSE

 To evaluate the relationship between cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and the need for operative delivery due to intrapartum fetal compromise (IFC) and adverse perinatal outcome (APO) in appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) late-term pregnancies undergoing induction of labor. The predictive performance of CPR was also assessed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 Retrospective study including singleton AGA pregnancies that underwent elective induction of labor between 41 + 0 and 41 + 6 weeks and were delivered before 42 + 0 weeks. IFC was defined as persistent pathological CTG or pathological CTG and fetal scalp pH < 7.20. Operative delivery included instrumental vaginal delivery (IVD) and cesarean section (CS). APO was defined as a composite of umbilical artery pH < 7.20, Apgar score < 7 at 5 minutes, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit for > 24 hours.

RESULTS

 The study included 314 women with 32 (10 %) IVDs and 49 (16 %) CSs due to IFC and 85 (27 %) APO cases. Fetuses with CPR < 10^th percentile showed a significantly higher rate of operative delivery for IFC (40 % (21/52) vs. 23 % (60/262); p = 0.008) yet not a significantly higher rate of APO (31 % (16/52) vs. 26 % (69/262); p = 0.511). The predictive values of CPR for operative delivery due to IFC and APO showed sensitivities of 26 % and 19 %, specificities of 87 % and 84 %, positive LRs of 2.0 and 1.2, and negative LRs of 0.85 and 0.96, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 Low CPR in AGA late-term pregnancies undergoing elective induction of labor was associated with a higher risk of operative delivery for IFC without increasing the APO rate. However, the predictive value of CPR was poor.

Prelabor and intrapartum Doppler ultrasound to predict fetal compromise

According to current estimates, over 20% of the 4 million neonatal deaths occurring globally every year are related to intrapartum hypoxic complications that happen as a result of uterine contractions against a background of inadequate placental function. Most of such intrapartum complications occur among apparently uncomplicated term pregnancies. Available evidence suggests that current risk-assessment strategies do not adequately identify many of the fetuses vulnerable to periods of intermittent hypoxia that characterize human labor. In this review, we discuss the data available on Doppler ultrasound for the evaluation of placental function before and during labor in appropriately grown fetuses; we also discuss the current strategies for ultrasound-based risk stratification, the physiology of intrapartum compromise, and the potential future treatments to prevent fetal distress in labor and reduce perinatal complications related to birth asphyxia.

Trial of Labor After Cesarean of Small for Gestational Age Neonates Among Women with No Prior Vaginal Delivery - a Retrospective Study

To evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of women who had never delivered vaginally and underwent a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) of small for gestational age (SGA) neonates, and to identify risk factors for unplanned repeat cesarean delivery. A retrospective cohort study from two tertiary medical centers. All women undergoing a TOLAC with no prior vaginal delivery, delivering a singleton SGA neonate at term between 2005 and 2020 were included. Factors associated with successful vaginal delivery were examined by a multivariable analysis. Of the 255 women who met the inclusion criteria and underwent TOLAC, 72.2% delivered vaginally. In a multivariable analysis, maternal height [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% CI): 1.10 (1.02-1.19), p = 0.012] and epidural administration [aOR (95% CI): 2.78 (1.0-7.73), p = 0.050] were positively independently associated with TOLAC success, and hypertensive disorders were negatively independently associated with TOLAC success [aOR (95% CI): 0.52 (0.004-0.74), p = 0.029]. The success rate of TOLAC among women with no prior vaginal delivery, delivering a SGA neonate is relatively high. Maternal height, hypertensive disorders, and epidural administration are independent factors associated with TOLAC success. Epidural administration is a modifiable factor and should be taken in consideration during TOLAC management.

Preventing term stillbirth: benefits and limitations of using fetal growth reference charts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review examines the variation in clinical practice with regards to ultrasound estimation of fetal weight, as well as calculation of fetal weight centiles.

RECENT FINDINGS

Placental dysfunction is associated with fetal smallness from intrauterine malnutrition as well as fetal disability and even stillbirth from hypoxemia. Although estimating fetal weight can be done accurately, the issue of which fetal weight centile chart should be used continues to be a contentious topic. The arguments against local fetal growth charts based on national borders and customization for variables known to be associated with disease are substantial. As for other human diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, there is a rationale for the use of an international fetal growth reference standard. Irrespective of the choice of fetal growth reference standard, a significant limitation of small for gestational age (SGA) detection programs to prevent stillbirth is that the majority of stillborn infants at term were not SGA at the time of demise.

SUMMARY

Placental dysfunction can present with SGA from malnutrition and/or stillbirth from hypoxemia depending on the gestational age of onset. Emerging data show that at term, fetal Doppler arterial redistribution is associated more strongly with perinatal death than fetal size. Properly conducted trials of the role for maternal characteristics, fetal size, placental biomarkers, and Doppler assessing fetal well-being are required urgently.

Maternal cardiovascular function and risk of intrapartum fetal compromise in women undergoing induction of labor: pilot study

OBJECTIVE

Identification of the fetus at risk of intrapartum compromise has many benefits. Impaired maternal cardiovascular function is associated with placental hypoperfusion predisposing to intrapartum fetal distress. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive accuracy of maternal hemodynamics for the risk of operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise in women undergoing induction of labor (IOL).

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, patients were recruited between November 2018 and January 2019. Women undergoing IOL were invited to participate in the study. A non-invasive ultrasonic cardiac output monitor (USCOM-1A®) was used for cardiovascular assessment. The study outcome was operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise, which included Cesarean or instrumental delivery for abnormal fetal heart monitoring. Regression analysis was used to test the association between cardiovascular markers, as well as the maternal characteristics, and the risk of operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise. Receiver-operating-characteristics-curve analysis was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the cardiovascular markers for the risk of operative delivery for presumed fetal compromise.

RESULTS

A total of 99 women were recruited, however four women were later excluded from the analysis due to semi-elective Cesarean section (n = 2) and failed IOL (n = 2). The rate of operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise was 28.4% (27/95). Women who delivered without suspected fetal compromise (controls) were more likely to be parous, compared to those who had operative delivery due to fetal compromise (52.9% vs 18.5%; P = 0.002). Women who underwent operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise had a significantly lower cardiac index (median, 2.50 vs 2.60 L/min/m² ; P = 0.039) and a higher systemic vascular resistance (SVR) (median, 1480 vs 1325 dynes × s/cm⁵ , P = 0.044) compared to controls. The baseline model (being parous only) showed poor predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.58-0.77). The addition of stroke volume index (SVI) < 36 mL/m² , SVR > 7.2 logs or SVR index (SVRI) > 7.7 logs improved significantly the predictive accuracy of the baseline model (P = 0.012, P = 0.026 and P = 0.012, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In this pilot study, we demonstrated that prelabor maternal cardiovascular assessment in women undergoing IOL could be useful for assessing the risk of intrapartum fetal compromise necessitating operative delivery. The addition of SVI, SVR or SVRI improved significantly the predictive accuracy of the baseline antenatal model. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stillbirth at term: Does size really matter?

Placental dysfunction has a deleterious influence on fetal size and is associated with higher rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. This association underpins the strategy of fetal size evaluation as a mechanism to identify placental dysfunction and prevent stillbirth. The optimal method of routine detection of small for gestational age (SGA) remains to be clarified with choices between estimation of symphyseal-fundal height versus routine third-trimester ultrasound, various formulae for fetal weight estimation by ultrasound, and the variable use of national, customized, or international fetal growth references. In addition to these controversies, the strategy for detecting SGA is further undermined by data demonstrating that the relationship between fetal size and adverse outcome weakens significantly with advancing gestation such that near term, the majority of stillbirths and adverse perinatal outcomes occur in normally sized fetuses. The use of maternal serum biochemical and Doppler parameters near term appears to be superior to fetal size in the identification of fetuses compromised by placental dysfunction and at increased risk of damage or demise. Multiparameter models and predictive algorithms using maternal risk factors, and biochemical and Doppler parameters have been developed, but need to be prospectively validated to demonstrate their effectiveness.

Risk factors for Cesarean delivery in pregnancy with small-for-gestational-age fetus undergoing induction of labor

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk factors for Cesarean delivery and non-reassuring fetal heart tracing (NRFHT) in pregnancies with a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetus undergoing induction of labor and to design and validate a prediction model, combining antenatal and intrapartum variables known at the time of labor induction, to identify pregnancies at increased risk of Cesarean delivery.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of non-anomalous, singleton gestations with a SGA fetus that underwent induction of labor, delivered in a single tertiary referral center between January 2011 and December 2016. SGA was defined as estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10^th percentile. The primary outcome was to identify risk factors associated with Cesarean delivery. The secondary outcome was to identify risk factors associated with NRFHT. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine which clinical characteristics, available at the time of admission, had the strongest association with Cesarean delivery and NRFHT during labor induction. The predictive value of the final models was assessed by the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC). Sensitivity and specificity of the models were also assessed. Internal validation of the models was performed using 10 000 bootstrap replicates of the original cohort. The adequacy of the models was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

A total of 594 pregnancies were included. Cesarean delivery was performed in 243 (40.9%) pregnancies. Significant risk factors associated with Cesarean delivery, and included in the final model, were maternal age, gestational age at delivery and initial method of labor induction. The bootstrap estimate of the AUC of the final prediction model for Cesarean delivery was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86). The model had sensitivity of 64.2%, specificity of 86.9%, positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 4.9 and negative LR of 0.41. The model had good fit (P = 0.617). NRFHT complicated 117 (19.7%) pregnancies. Significant risk factors for NRFHT included EFW < 5^th percentile, abnormal umbilical artery Doppler studies (pulsatility index > 95^th percentile or absent/reversed end-diastolic flow) and gestational age at delivery. The final prediction model for NRFHT had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) and specificity of 97.0%.

CONCLUSION

We identified several significant risk factors for Cesarean delivery and NRFHT among SGA pregnancies undergoing induction of labor. Clinicians may use these risk factors to guide patient counseling and to help anticipate the potential need for operative delivery. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Safety and efficacy of sildenafil citrate to reduce operative birth for intrapartum fetal compromise at term: a phase 2 randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Sildenafil citrate is a vasodilator used in erectile dysfunction and pulmonary hypertension. We tested whether it reduces emergency operative births for fetal compromise and improves fetal or uteroplacental perfusion in labor in a phase 2 double-blind randomized controlled trial.

STUDY DESIGN

Women at term in early labor or undergoing scheduled induction of labor at Mater Mother's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were randomly allocated 50 mg of sildenafil citrate orally 8 hourly up to 150 mg or placebo. Intrapartum fetal monitoring followed Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists guidelines. Primary outcomes were (1) emergency operative birth (by cesarean delivery or instrumental vaginal birth) for intrapartum fetal compromise and (2) mean indices of fetal and uteroplacental perfusion using Doppler ultrasound. Analysis was by intention-to-treat.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ANZCTRN12615000319572 RESULTS: Between September 2015 and January 2019, 300 women were randomized equally to sildenafil citrate or placebo. Sildenafil citrate reduced the risk of emergency operative birth by 51% (18% vs 36.7%; relative risk, 0.49, 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.73, P=.0004, number needed to treat = 5 [3-11]). There was no difference in indices of fetal and uteroplacental perfusion, but these were ascertained in only 71 women. Sildenafil citrate reduced the risk of meconium-stained liquor or pathologic fetal heart rate patterns by 43% (25.3% vs 44.7%; relative risk, 0.57, 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.79, P=.0005), but its effects on fetal scalp sampling rates (2.0% vs 6.7%; relative risk, 0.30, 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.07, P=.06) and adverse neonatal outcome (20.7% vs 21.3%; relative risk, 0.97, 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.50, P=.89) were inconclusive. Only 3.6% of maternal levels of sildenafil citrate or its metabolite were detected in cord blood. No differences in maternal adverse events were seen.

CONCLUSION

Sildenafil citrate reduced operative birth for intrapartum fetal compromise, but much larger phase 3 trials of its effects on mother and child are needed before it can be routinely recommended.

Ultrasound in labor admission to predict need for emergency cesarean section: a prospective, blinded cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether assessment with ultrasound could improve the detection of emergency cesarean section (ECS) in laboring women.

METHODS

Women who presented with symptoms of active labor or women in need of labor induction were invited to participate in the study. Women included in the study were evaluated with ultrasonography for fetal biometry and vaginal examinations for Bishop score assessment. The main aim in this study was determining factors associated with ECS due to fetal distress and obstructed labor.

RESULTS

No fetal biometry variable was associated with ECS due to any indication (fetal distress and obstructed labor combined) in the univariate analysis. In multivariate analyses, biometry variables were adjusted for Bishop score at admission and only abdominal circumference percentile showed a significant association with the odds of ECS due to any indication (OR:1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). Biparietal diameter and abdominal circumference variables were associated with the odds of ECS due to obstructed labor in both univariate and multivariate analyses (p < .05 for all). However, the predictive accuracy of biparietal diameter percentile (area under the curve (AUC): 0.55, 95% CI: 0.46-0.63) and abdominal circumference percentile (AUC: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.48-0.64) without adjunct variables were poor. Moreover, the addition of fetal biometry parameters to Bishop score did not improve the predictive accuracy of Bishop score.

CONCLUSION

Ultrasound assessment at admission, in addition to Bishop score assessment, did not significantly improve the prediction of ECS. Also, the fetal biometry alone had poor predictive capability for ECS. Routine ultrasound assessment at labor admission appears to be ineffective for predicting ECS.PrecisFetal biparietal diameter and abdominal circumference showed an association with emergency cesarean due to obstructed labor but the predictive accuracy of fetal biometry was low. Routine ultrasound examination at admission, in addition to Bishop score assessment, may not useful for assessing the risk of emergency section in unselected populations.

Development of a cross-validated model for predicting emergency cesarean for intrapartum fetal compromise at term

OBJECTIVES

To develop a model for predicting emergency cesarean for fetal distress (ECFD) at term using a combination of maternal and late pregnancy ultrasound parameters measured at more than 36 gestational weeks.

METHODS

A study of prospectively collected data, including ultrasound scans at 36-38 weeks, for singleton non-anomalous deliveries at Mater Mother's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, between January 2010 and April 2017. Univariable and multivariable mixed-effects generalized linear models were generated. The final model was validated by the K-fold cross validation technique.

RESULTS

Overall, 5439 women met the inclusion criteria; of these, 230 (4.2%) underwent ECFD. There were more nulliparous women and women with induction of labor (IOL) in the ECFD cohort (both P < 0.001). ECFD neonates had lower z-scores for estimated fetal weight (EFW), cerebroplacental ratio (CPR), and middle cerebral artery pulsatility index; and higher scores for umbilical artery pulsatility index. Ethnicity, nulliparity, IOL, EFW z-score, and CPR z-score were included in the final prediction model, which showed high accuracy with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.77.

CONCLUSION

The study shows that a prediction model combining the continuous standardized measures of CPR and EFW and several maternal factors was able to identify ECFD with improved accuracy.

Longitudinal change in cerebroplacental ratio in small-for-gestational-age fetuses and risk of stillbirth

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether assessment of longitudinal change in Doppler variables in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses improves the prediction of those at risk of stillbirth.

METHODS

This was a longitudinal study of two cohorts of singleton pregnancies, which included SGA and appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) fetuses, respectively. The inclusion criteria for the SGA cohort were singleton pregnancy at ≥ 20 weeks' gestation, classified as SGA (estimated fetal weight < 10^th centile). The AGA cohort consisted of singleton pregnancies deemed at high risk of being SGA, which were followed up longitudinally but remained AGA. Fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) pulsatility index (PI) and umbilical artery (UA)-PI were measured longitudinally and cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) was calculated, and values were converted to multiples of the median. The last two measurements prior to delivery were included in the analysis. Longitudinal models for Doppler variables were developed using linear-mixed models and their accuracy in the prediction of stillbirth was tested using generalized linear models. A Bayesian framework was employed to compare the accuracy of longitudinal and standard (last-scan measurement) models.

RESULTS

In total, 1549 AGA and 941 SGA pregnancies were included in the analysis. There were 30 (3.2%) and no stillbirth cases in the SGA and AGA groups, respectively. Change in MCA-PI, UA-PI and CPR with advancing gestation was significantly different between liveborn AGA and SGA fetuses, with a less pronounced difference with advancing gestation. Using the last measurement, the best models for the prediction of stillbirth in SGA pregnancies were those based on CPR (accuracy, 75.0%; 95% CI, 72.6-77.2%) and UA-PI (accuracy, 71.0%; 95% CI, 68.6-73.4%). The posterior probability of the standard CPR model having a higher accuracy compared with the UA-PI model was 97.2% (magnitude of change (MC), 3.9%; 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.5-7.3%). The accuracies of the standard, compared with the longitudinal, models for UA-PI (71.0% vs 72.8%), MCA-PI (64.6% vs 63.8%) and CPR (75.0% vs 74.9%) in the prediction of stillbirth were not significantly different. The posterior probabilities for improvement in accuracy using longitudinal, compared with standard, assessment were 50.1% (MC, < 0.1%; 95% CrI, -3.3 to 3.3%), 35.2% (MC, -0.1%; 95% CrI, -4.5 to 2.8%) and 82.2% (MC, 1.9%; 95% CrI, -1.5 to 5.3%) for CPR, MCA-PI and UA-PI models, respectively. Therefore, change in Doppler parameters did not improve the accuracy of the prediction of stillbirth, compared with that of the last-scan measurement.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal assessment of Doppler parameters was not useful in improving the detection of stillbirth in SGA pregnancies, as compared with a single-point assessment. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical significance of cerebroplacental ratio

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Two-thirds of the pregnancies complicated by stillbirth demonstrate growth restriction. Identification of the foetus at risk of growth restriction is essential to reduce the risk of stillbirth. The aim of this review is to critically appraise the current evidence regarding clinical utility of cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) in antenatal surveillance.

RECENT FINDINGS

The CPR has emerged as an assessment tool for foetuses at increased risk of growth disorders. CPR is a better predictor of adverse events compared with middle-cerebral artery or umbilical artery Doppler alone. The predictive value of CPR for adverse perinatal outcomes is better for suspected small-for-gestational age foetuses compared with appropriate-for-gestational age (AGA) foetuses. CPR could be useful for the risk stratification of small-for-gestational age foetuses to determine the timing of delivery and also to calculate the risk of intrapartum compromise or prolonged admission to the neonatal care unit. Although there are many proposed cut-offs for an abnormal CPR value, evidence is currently lacking to suggest the use of one cut-off over another. CPR appears to be associated with increased risk of intrapartum foetal compromise, abnormal growth velocity, and lower birthweight in AGA foetuses as well. Moreover, birthweight differences are better explained with CPR compared to other factors such as ethnicity. However, the role of CPR in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes such as acidosis or low Apgar scores in AGA foetuses is yet to be determined.

SUMMARY

CPR appears to be a useful surrogate of suboptimal foetal growth and intrauterine hypoxia and it is associated with a variety of perinatal adverse events.

Does Uterine Doppler Add Information to the Cerebroplacental Ratio for the Prediction of Adverse Perinatal Outcome at the End of Pregnancy?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether the addition of the mean uterine arteries pulsatility index (mUtA PI) to the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) improves its ability to predict adverse perinatal outcome (APO) at the end of pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 891 fetuses that underwent an ultrasound examination at 34-41 weeks. The CPR and the mUtA PI were converted into multiples of the median (MoM) and the estimated fetal weight (EFW) into centiles according to local references. APO was defined as a composite of abnormal cardiotocogram, intrapartum pH requiring cesarean section, 5' Apgar score <7, neonatal pH <7.10 and admission to pediatric care units. The accuracies of the different parameters were evaluated alone and in combination with gestational characteristics using univariate and multivariate analyses by means of the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and the area under the curve (AUC). Finally, a comparison was similarly performed between the CPR and the cerebro-placental-uterine ratio (CPUR; CPR/mUtA PI) for the prediction of APO.

RESULTS

The univariate analysis showed that CPR MoM was the best parameter predicting APO (AIC 615.71, AUC 0.675). The multivariate analysis including clinical data showed that the best prediction was also achieved with the CPR MoM (AIC 599.39, AUC 0.718). Moreover, when EFW centiles were considered, the addition of UtA PI MoM did not improve the prediction already obtained with CPR MoM (AIC 591.36, AUC 0.729 vs. AIC 589.86, AUC 0.731). Finally, the prediction by means of CPUR did not improve that of CPR alone (AIC 623.38, AUC 0.674 vs. AIC 623.27, AUC 0.66).

CONCLUSION

The best prediction of APO at the end of pregnancy is obtained with CPR whatever is the combination of parameters. The addition of uterine Doppler to the information yielded by CPR does not result in any prediction improvement.

Prostaglandins and cesarean delivery for nonreassuring fetal status in patients delivering small-for-gestational age neonates at term

Objective: Growth-restricted fetuses have been excluded from many randomized trials of prostaglandins for labor induction. As prostaglandins, particularly misoprostol, are associated with increased rates of cesarean delivery for nonreassuring fetal heart tracing, it is important to assess their safety in pregnancies at higher risk of this complication. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between use of prostaglandins for labor induction in term singleton pregnancies complicated by delivery of small-for-gestational age (SGA) neonates and the risk of cesarean delivery for nonreassuring fetal status (NRFS).Materials and methods: Retrospective cohort study of singleton deliveries ≥37 weeks following induction of labor in patients with SGA (birthweight <10% percentile for gestational age). Patients with prior cesarean delivery or neonates with major congenital anomalies were excluded. Patients were categorized by exposure to prostaglandins. The primary outcome was cesarean delivery for NRFS. Secondary outcomes were any cesarean delivery, a composite of a 5-min Apgar score <7, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, or neonatal death, and a composite of maternal morbidity (transfusion, postpartum hemorrhage, wound infection, endometritis, fever). Propensity scores for exposure were estimated using a logistic regression model, including parity, comorbidities, and Bishop score. Stabilized weights from inverse probability of treatment weighting were used. Outcomes were compared with relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: There were 1097 patients: 587 (53.5%) exposed to prostaglandins and 510 (46.5%) unexposed. Covariates were balanced in the stabilized sample. Overall, 166 (15.1%) patients had cesarean deliveries for NRFS. In unadjusted analysis, prostaglandin use was associated with an increased RR of cesarean for NRFS (18.3 versus 11.0%, RR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.27-2.30). In propensity-score-weighted analysis, the RR for cesarean for NRFS was 1.22 (95% CI: 0.93-1.59). There was no significant association between prostaglandin exposure and all-cause cesarean delivery, maternal morbidity, or neonatal morbidity.Conclusion: In propensity score analysis, there was no association between the use of prostaglandins for labor induction at term and cesarean for NRFS in pregnancies complicated by SGA. However, given the retrospective nature of the study, these results should be interpreted with caution.

Comparison of Cerebroplacental Ratio, Intergrowth-21st Standards, Customized Growth, and Local Population References for the Prediction of Fetal Compromise: Which Is the Best Approach?

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work was to compare the accuracy of the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR), Intergrowth 21st standards (IG21), customized growth (CG), and local population references (LPR) in the prediction of intrapartum fetal compromise (IFC).

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 714 fetuses that underwent an ultrasound examination at 34-41 weeks and were delivered within a 2-week interval. The CPR was converted into multiples of the median and the estimated fetal weight (EFW) transformed into CG, IG21, and LPR centiles. IFC was defined as a composite of abnormal cardiotocogram, intrapartum pH requiring cesarean section, 5-min Apgar score, and admission to pediatric care units. The accuracies of the CPR and the EFW centiles for the prediction of IFC were evaluated alone and in combination with other gestational characteristics using univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Individually, the CPR was the parameter that best predicted the existence of IFC (AUC = 0.66). The multivariate analysis showed that the best prediction was again achieved with the CPR, alone or in combination with any of the EFW centiles (AUC = 0.74). No significant differences were seen between the different centile methods.

CONCLUSION

The best prediction of IFC is obtained with CPR. Evaluation of CPR should be encouraged in term and late-preterm fetuses.

Cerebroplacental ratio assessment in early labor in uncomplicated term pregnancy and prediction of adverse perinatal outcome: prospective multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

It has been suggested that the use of Doppler ultrasound in term pregnancies with normal-sized fetuses is able to identify those at high risk of subclinical placental function impairment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) measured in early labor and perinatal and delivery outcomes in a cohort of uncomplicated singleton term pregnancies.

METHODS

This was a prospective multicenter observational study conducted at three tertiary centers between January 2016 and July 2017. Low-risk term pregnancies, defined by the absence of maternal morbidity or pregnancy complication, accompanied by normal ultrasound and clinical screening of fetal growth in the third trimester, with spontaneous onset of labor were included. Umbilical artery (UA) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) Doppler was assessed on admission for early labor. All measurements were performed in between uterine contractions and according to international standards. CPR was computed by dividing MCA pulsatility index by UA pulsatility index and converted into multiples of the median (MoM) in order to adjust for gestational age. Doctors and midwives involved in the clinical management of the women were blinded to the results of the Doppler evaluation. Mode of delivery and perinatal outcome were compared between pregnancies with reduced CPR MoM, defined as CPR MoM within the lowest decile of the study population, and those with normal CPR MoM. Receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis was used to assess the predictive performance of CPR for obstetric intervention due to fetal distress and composite adverse perinatal outcome.

RESULTS

Overall, 562 women were included. The rate of obstetric intervention for suspected fetal distress in labor was more than three times higher among cases with reduced CPR MoM compared to those with normal CPR MoM (9/54 (16.7%) vs 28/508 (5.5%); P = 0.004). Furthermore, a significantly higher rate of composite adverse perinatal outcome was found in fetuses with CPR MoM < 10^th percentile compared to those with CPR MoM ≥ 10^th percentile (6/54 (11.1%) vs 19/508 (3.7%); P = 0.012). CPR had low sensitivity and low positive predictive value for prediction of obstetric intervention due to fetal distress (24.3% and 18.0%, respectively) and composite adverse perinatal outcome (24.0% and 11.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Data on a wide cohort of low-risk term pregnancies in early labor showed that, while reduced CPR is associated with a higher risk of obstetric intervention due to fetal distress and composite adverse perinatal outcome, it is a poor predictor of adverse perinatal outcome. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of operative delivery for intrapartum fetal compromise in small-for-gestational-age fetuses at term: external validation of the IRIS algorithm

Objectives: Small-for-gestational-age fetuses (SGA) are at high risk of intrapartum fetal compromise requiring operative delivery. In a recent study, we developed a model using a combination of three antenatal (gestational age at delivery, parity, cerebroplacental ratio) and three intrapartum (epidural use, labor induction and augmentation using oxytocin) variables for the prediction of operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise in SGA fetuses - the Individual RIsk aSsessment (IRIS) prediction model. The aim of this study was to test the predictive accuracy of the IRIS prediction model in an external cohort of singleton pregnancies complicated by SGA.Methods: This was an external validation study using a cohort of pregnancies from two tertiary referral centers in Spain and England. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies diagnosed with an SGA fetus, defined as estimated fetal weight (EFW) below the 10th centile for gestational age at 36 weeks or beyond, which had fetal Doppler assessment and available data on their intrapartum care and pregnancy outcomes. The main outcome in this study was the operative delivery for presumed fetal compromise. External validation was performed using the coefficients obtained in the original development cohort. The predictive accuracies of models were investigated with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to test the goodness-of-fit of models and calibration plots were also obtained for visual assessment. A mobile application using the combined model algorithm was developed to facilitate clinical use.Results: Four hundred twelve singleton pregnancies with an antenatal diagnosis of SGA were included in the study. The operative delivery rate was 22.8% (n = 94). The group which required operative delivery for presumed fetal compromise had significantly fewer multiparous women (19.1 versus 47.8%, p < .001 in the total study population; 19.0 versus 43.5 and 19.2 versus 49.6%, UK and Spain cohort, respectively), lower cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) multiples of median (MoM) (median: 0.77 versus 0.92, p < .001 in the total study population; 0.77 versus 0.92 and 0.77 versus 0.92, UK and Spain cohort, respectively), more inductions of labor (74.5 versus 60.1%, p = .010 in the total study population; 85.7 versus 77.2 and 71.2% and 53.1, UK and Spain cohort, respectively) and more use of oxytocin augmentation (57.4 versus 39.3%, p = .002 in the total study population; 19.0 versus 12.0 and 68.5 and 50.4%, UK and Spain cohort, respectively) compared to those who did not require operative delivery due to presumed fetal compromise. When the original antenatal model was applied to the present cohort, we observed moderate predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.64-0.76), and no signs of poor fit (p = .464). The original combined model, when applied to the external cohort, had moderate predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.67-0.77) and also no signs of poor fit (p = .268) without the need for refitting. A statistically significant increase in the predictive accuracy was not achieved via refitting of the combined model (AUC 0.76 versus 0.72, p = .060).Conclusions: Using our recently published model, the predictive accuracy for fetal compromise requiring operative delivery in term fetuses thought to be SGA was modest and showed no signs of poor fit in an external cohort. The IRIS tool for mobile devices has been developed to facilitate wide clinical use of this prediction model.Brief rationaleObjective: To determine the external validity of an intrapartum risk prediction model for suspected small-for-gestational age fetuses.What is already known: Small-for-gestational age fetuses are at increased risk of intrapartum compromise. Fetal weight alone is a poor marker for adverse outcomes and a comprehensive prediction model has been previously suggested.What this study adds: Multivariable prediction model showed good accuracy and calibration in this external validation study. The significance of some variables was different between the original and external validation cohort and there was a small margin for improvement with model refitting. A mobile application has been developed to facilitate clinical use.

Cross-validated prediction model for severe adverse neonatal outcomes in a term, non-anomalous, singleton cohort

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model using maternal, intrapartum and ultrasound variables for a composite of severe adverse neonatal outcomes (SANO) in term infants.

DESIGN

Prospectively collected observational study. Mixed effects generalised linear models were used for modelling. Internal validation was performed using the K-fold cross-validation technique.

SETTING

This was a study of women that birthed at the Mater Mother's Hospital in Brisbane, Australia between January 2010 and April 2017.

PATIENTS

We included all term, non-anomalous singleton pregnancies that had an ultrasound performed between 36 and 38 weeks gestation and had recordings for the umbilical artery pulsatility index, middle cerebral artery pulsatility index and the estimated fetal weight (EFW).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The components of the SANO were: severe acidosis arterial, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, Apgar score of ≤3 at 5 min or perinatal death.

RESULTS

There were 5439 women identified during the study period that met the inclusion criteria, with 11.7% of this cohort having SANO. The final generalised linear mixed model consisted of the following variables: maternal ethnicity, socioeconomic score, nulliparity, induction of labour, method of birth and z-scores for EFW and cerebroplacental ratio. The final model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrate it is possible to predict infants that are at risk of SANO at term with moderate accuracy using a combination of maternal, intrapartum and ultrasound variables. Cross-validation analysis suggests a high calibration of the model.

A new customized fetal growth standard for African American women: the PRB/NICHD Detroit study

BACKGROUND

The assessment of fetal growth disorders requires a standard. Current nomograms for the assessment of fetal growth in African American women have been derived either from neonatal (rather than fetal) biometry data or have not been customized for maternal ethnicity, weight, height, and parity and fetal sex.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to (1) develop a new customized fetal growth standard for African American mothers; and (2) compare such a standard to 3 existing standards for the classification of fetuses as small (SGA) or large (LGA) for gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study included 4183 women (4001 African American and 182 Caucasian) from the Detroit metropolitan area who underwent ultrasound examinations between 14-40 weeks of gestation (the median number of scans per pregnancy was 5, interquartile range 3-7) and for whom relevant covariate data were available. Longitudinal quantile regression was used to build models defining the "normal" estimated fetal weight (EFW) centiles for gestational age in African American women, adjusted for maternal height, weight, and parity and fetal sex, and excluding pathologic factors with a significant effect on fetal weight. The resulting Perinatology Research Branch/Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (hereinafter, PRB/NICHD) growth standard was compared to 3 other existing standards--the customized gestation-related optimal weight (GROW) standard; the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (hereinafter, NICHD) African American standard; and the multinational World Health Organization (WHO) standard--utilized to screen fetuses for SGA (<10th centile) or LGA (>90th centile) based on the last available ultrasound examination for each pregnancy.

RESULTS

First, the mean birthweight at 40 weeks was 133 g higher for neonates born to Caucasian than to African American mothers and 150 g higher for male than female neonates; maternal weight, height, and parity had a positive effect on birthweight. Second, analysis of longitudinal EFW revealed the following features of fetal growth: (1) all weight centiles were about 2% higher for male than for female fetuses; (2) maternal height had a positive effect on EFW, with larger fetuses being affected more (2% increase in the 95th centile of weight for each 10-cm increase in height); and (3) maternal weight and parity had a positive effect on EFW that increased with gestation and varied among the weight centiles. Third, the screen-positive rate for SGA was 7.2% for the NICHD African American standard, 12.3% for the GROW standard, 13% for the WHO standard customized by fetal sex, and 14.4% for the PRB/NICHD customized standard. For all standards, the screen-positive rate for SGA was at least 2-fold higher among fetuses delivered preterm than at term. Fourth, the screen-positive rate for LGA was 8.7% for the GROW standard, 9.2% for the PRB/NICHD customized standard, 10.8% for the WHO standard customized by fetal sex, and 12.3% for the NICHD African American standard. Finally, the highest overall agreement among standards was between the GROW and PRB/NICHD customized standards (Cohen's interrater agreement, kappa = 0.85).

CONCLUSION

We developed a novel customized PRB/NICHD fetal growth standard from fetal data in an African American population without assuming proportionality of the effects of covariates, and without assuming that these effects are equal on all centiles of weight; we also provide an easy-to-use centile calculator. This standard classified more fetuses as being at risk for SGA compared to existing standards, especially among fetuses delivered preterm, but classified about the same number of LGA. The comparison among the 4 growth standards also revealed that the most important factor determining agreement among standards is whether they account for the same factors known to affect fetal growth.