Is an increase in Japan's suicides caused by COVID-19 alone?

Temporal Fluctuations of Suicide Mortality in Japan from 2009 to 2023 Using Government Databases

In Japan, suicide mortalities consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2009 to 2019) but, conversely, increased after the pandemic outbreak from 2020 to 2022. To provide up-to-date suicide statistics in Japan, this study determined the temporal fluctuations of standardized suicide mortalities (SMRs), disaggregated by sex and age, by joinpoint regression analysis using the government suicide database, named the "Basic Data on Suicide in Region". From January 2009 to December 2023, three temporal fluctuation patterns of SMRs pertaining to working age and older adults were detected, such as attenuations of decreasing trends before the COVID-19 pandemic (from around the mid-2010s), a sharply increasing trend that coincided with the pandemic outbreak, and gradually decreased during the pandemic, but no changes at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the SMRs of working-age females sharply increased concurrently with the pandemic outbreak, whereas those of males did not change. However, before the pandemic, decreasing trends of the SMRs of working-age males diminished in the mid-2010s, but those of females consistently decreased. The SMRs of working-age males indicated non-significant but sharply increasing trends in early 2022, a trend that was not observed for females. In contrast to working-age adults, the SMRs of adolescents already began to increase in the mid-2010s and also indicated consistently increasing trends between the periods during and after the pandemic. These results suggest, contrary to our expectations, that the impacts of both the outbreak and end of the COVID-19 pandemic were limited regarding the increase in SMRs from 2020. Therefore, when revising suicide prevention programs in the post-COVID-19 era, it should be noted that focusing on pandemic-associated factors alone is not sufficient.

Impacts of Working Hours, Wages, and Regular Employment Opportunity on Suicide Mortalities of Employed and Unemployed Individuals before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population (SMRs) in Japan consistently decreased from 2009-2019, but these decreasing trends were reversed to increase in 2020. To clarify the mechanisms of recent increasing suicide in Japan, temporal fluctuations of SMRs disaggregated by sex and employment status (employed and unemployed individuals) and labor indices such as working hours, wages, and regular employment opportunity index (REO) from January 2012 to June 2023 were analyzed using interrupted time-series analysis. Additionally, temporal causalities from labor indices to SMRs were analyzed using vector autoregressive and non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag analyses. Decreasing trends among employed SMRs of both sexes were attenuated after the enactment of the "Work Style Reform Program" in 2018, but male SMRs were unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, female employed SMRs sharply increased, synchronized with the "Work Style Reform Act" and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak (the COVID-19 impact was greater than the "Work Style Reform Act"). Additionally, unemployed SMRs of both sexes sharply increased with the revision and scale-down of countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19 ("revision of economic supportive countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19"). Unexpectedly, after enacting the "Work Style Reform Act", wages decreased due to possibly decreasing working hours. Increasing REO, which consistently increased, was a protective factor for male suicides, but unemployed SMRs were not affected by any labor indices. It has been established that controlling a heavy workload plays an important role in suppressing the deterioration of physical and mental conditions, including suicide; however, this study suggested that, at least within appropriate ranges of working hours, decreasing working hours due to excessive management probably contributes to increasing suicides of some vulnerable individuals via de-creasing their wages. Although governmental welfare and economic support measures had to be revised according to rapidly changing situations during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study also suggested that temporal gaps among a part of revisions of several welfare and economic support measures were unexpectedly involved in drastically/sharply increasing suicides of unemployed individuals in 2022.

Impact of the Japanese Government's 'General Principles of Suicide Prevention Policy' on youth suicide from 2007 to 2022

BACKGROUND

The Japanese Government programme 'General Principles of Suicide Prevention Policy' (GPSPP) contributed to decreasing suicide mortality rates (SMRs) before the COVID-19 pandemic, but they increased after the pandemic.

AIMS

To identify risk factors for youth suicide and the impact of GPSPP on youth suicide.

METHOD

Annual suicide numbers during 2007-2022 were obtained from government databases. SMRs of student and non-student youths were analysed with a linear mixed-effects model. Interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to investigate temporal relations between three GPSPP periods and SMRs with 52 suicide motives among high school, special vocational school and university students. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of grade repetition on university student SMRs.

RESULTS

Non-student youth SMRs were higher than student SMRs. School-related (worrying about the future/underachievement), health-related (mainly mental illness) and family-related (conflict with parent and severe verbal reprimands) motives were major motives for student SMRs. During the first GPSPP period (2007-2012), no student SMRs decreased. During the second period (2012-2017), university and special vocational school student SMRs increased, but high school student SMRs were unchanged. In contrast, during the third period (2017-2022), with the exception of male special vocational school students, all SMRs increased. Unexpectedly, long-term grade repetition was negatively associated with health-related SMRs.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that GPSPP-supported programmes in schools partially contributed to student suicide prevention. To suppress increasing student SMRs, social/life support specialists should participate in in-school support services to bolster the social standing and lives of students who repeat grades or experience setbacks.

Trends in Suicidal Mortality and Motives among Working-Ages Individuals in Japan during 2007-2022

Suicides in Japan consistently decreased from 2009-2019, but increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. To identify causes of increasing suicides, age-dependent and temporal fluctuations of suicide mortality rate per 100,000 (SMRP) in working-age generations (20-59 years) disaggregated by suicidal motives (7-categories; 52-subcategories) and sex from 2007 to 2022, were analyzed by analysis of variance and joinpoint regression, respectively, using the government suicide database "Suicide Statistics". The SMRP of 20-29 year-old males and 20-49 year-old females began to increase in the late 2010s. SMRPs of these high-risk groups for suicides caused by depression (the leading suicidal motive for all groups) began increasing in the late 2010s. Economic-related, employment-related, and romance-related problems contributed to the increasing SMRPs in 20-29 males in the late 2010s. Romance-related and family-related problems contributed to the increasing SMRPs of 20-29 females in the late 2010s. Increasing SMRPs caused by child-raising stress in 20-39 year-old females from the late 2010s was a remarkable finding. In contrast, SMRPs of 30-59 year-old males consistently decreased until 2021; however, in these groups, SMRPs for suicides caused by various motives sharply increased in 2022. The consistent increase in SMRPs of high-risk groups from the late 2010s to the pandemic suggest recent socioeconomic and psychosocial problems in Japan possibly contributed to the increasing SMRPs in these high-risk groups independently of pandemic-associated factors, whereas the SMRPs of males of 30-59 years were probably associated with the ending of the pandemic rather than pandemic-associated factors.

Impacts of Complete Unemployment Rates Disaggregated by Reason and Duration on Suicide Mortality from 2009-2022 in Japan

In Japan, suicides had consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2009-2019), but conversely increased after the pandemic outbreak (from 2020-2022). To identify the features of fluctuations of suicides in Japan, the standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population (SMRP) disaggregated by gender (males/females) and age (10-year cohorts) from 2009-2022 were analyzed using interrupted time-series and joinpoint regression analyses. Temporal causalities from unemployment rate (CUR) disaggregated by unemployment duration and reasons for seeking work to SMRP were analyzed using vector autoregressive modelling with Granger causality analysis. SMRP fluctuations from 2009-2022 were composed of three patterns, such as positive discontinuity (increasing) synchronized with the pandemic outbreak, attenuations of decreasing trends before the pandemic, turning from decreasing before the pandemic to increasing/unchanging after the pandemic outbreak. Dismissal CUR positively related to SMRP of working-age generations, whereas voluntary CUR negatively related to SMRP of younger population (<30 years), which turned to persistently increasing before the pandemic (approximately 2016-2017). CUR shorter than 3 months positively related to SMRP of working-age females, which displayed promptly increasing synchronization with the pandemic outbreak. CUR longer than 12 months positively related to SMRP of working-age males, which contributed to persistently increasing SMRPs during the pandemic. These results suggest that increasing SMRP during 2020-2022 in Japan has been probably at-tributed to interactions among the pandemic-related factors, continuous vulnerabilities from before the pandemic and newly developing risk factors for suicides during the pandemic. Unexpectedly, increasing SMRPs of working-age males in 2022 suggest that either prolongation of the pandemic or the ending of the pandemic might positively affect suicides in Japan.

National trends in depression and suicide attempts and COVID-19 pandemic-related factors, 1998-2021: A nationwide study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant psychiatric effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, there's limited data on the prevalence and risk factors of depression and suicide attempts among South Korean adults.

METHODS

A nationwide cross-sectional study using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data from 1998 to 2021 was conducted. Changes in prevalence and risk factors for depression and suicide attempts were assessed using weighted odds ratios or weighted beta coefficients.

RESULTS

During the observation period (1998-2021), the prevalence of depression increased in the overall population; however, no significant surge was found regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, from 2.78% (95% CI, 2.41-3.15) in 1998-2005-4.96% (4.32-5.61) in 2020 and 5.06% (4.43-5.69) in 2021. However, immediately after the onset of the pandemic, younger ages, male sex, urban residence, higher education, and high economic status became significant vulnerable factors compared to pre-pandemic periods. The prevalence of suicide attempts remained stable, and there was no notable surge specifically related to the COVID-19 pandemic, from 0.23% (95% CI, 0.18-0.28) in 1998-2005-0.45% (0.25-0.66) in 2020 and 0.42% (0.24-0.60) in 2021. Furthermore, no distinct vulnerable factors associated with suicide attempts have been identified.

CONCLUSION

Through this nationwide serial cross-sectional survey study, we emphasized the need for understanding the differential impacts of global crises, such as COVID-19, across varied population subgroups, thereby highlighting the importance of specific and targeted mental health support strategies.

Suicidal Mortality and Motives Among Middle-School, High-School, and University Students

IMPORTANCE

The suicide mortality rate per 100 000 population (SMRP) consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Japan and then unexpectedly increased during the pandemic. However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To identify trends in and factors associated with suicidal mortality and motives among students in Japan from 2007 to 2022.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, data on SMRPs among Japanese middle-school, high-school, and university students were obtained from the government suicide database Suicide Statistics of the National Police Agency.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age-dependent and temporal fluctuations in annual SMRPs, disaggregated by suicidal motive (7 categories and 52 subcategories), sex, and school, were analyzed using linear mixed-effect and joinpoint regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

Total suicide numbers from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 760 male middle-school students, 635 female middle-school students, 2376 male high-school students, 1566 female high-school students, 5179 male university students, and 1880 female university students. The mean (SD) student populations from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 1 752 737 (81 334) male middle-school students, 1 675 572 (78 824) female middle-school students, 1 648 274 (67 520) male high-school students, 1 614 828 (60 032) female high-school students, 1 652 689 (32 724) male university students, and 1 229 142 (57 484) female university students. Among male students, the leading motives were school-related factors (underachievement and worrying about the future), followed by family-related and health-related motives. Among female students, school-related and family-related motives decreased, but health-related motives showed an age-dependent increase. The SMRPs of middle-school male students and female students were almost equal (mean [SD], 2.7 [1.0] vs 2.4 [1.4]), but the age-dependent increase in SMRPs among male students was pronounced (mean [SD], high-school vs university male students, 9.1 [2.4] vs 19.6 [3.0]; high-school vs university female students, 6.1 [2.4] vs 9.6 [1.8]). However, the incidence of suicide among high-school students associated with health-related motives was greater in female students. The majority of suicides associated with major impactable suicidal motives (school-related, health-related, and family-related motives) began increasing before the pandemic. Changes in SMRP associated with interpersonal relationships, such as conflict with classmates or parents, were not significant, but the rates increased greatly during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

School-related, health-related, and family-related problems were major motives, whereas the impacts of health-related and family-related motives increased and decreased with age, respectively. Notably, most SMRPs associated with major impactable motives (underachievement, conflict with a parent or classmate, and mental illnesses) had already begun increasing in the late 2010s, indicating that recent increasing SMRPs among school-aged individuals were associated with pandemic-related factors and other factors affecting this generation before the pandemic. It may be inappropriate to uniformly apply research findings based on school-aged individuals to school-based suicide prevention programs for students in middle school, high school, and university.