Conditional Survival After Surgical Intervention in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Conditional Survival of Patients with Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer After Surgery: A National Real-World Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) after surgery usually is estimated at diagnosis, but how the prognosis actually evolves over time for patients who survived for a predefined time is unknown.

METHODS

Data on patients with a diagnosis of LS-SCLC after surgery between 2004 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCSS) and conditional overall survival (COS) were calculated.

RESULTS

This study analyzed 997 patients (555 women, 55.7%) with a median age, of 67 years (interquartile range [IQR], 60-73 years). The 5-year CCSS and COS increased from 44.7% and 38.3%, respectively, at diagnosis to 83.7% and 67.9% at 5 years after diagnosis. Although there were large differences with different stages (stages I, II, and III) at diagnosis (respectively 59.5%, 28.4%; 28.1% for CCSS and 50.6%, 24.8%, and 23.6% for COS), the gap decreased with time, and the rates were similar after 5 years (respectively 85.0%, 80.3%, and 79.4% for CCSS; 65.6%, 56.9%, and 61.3% for COS). The 5-year conditional survival for the patients who received lobectomy was better than for those who received sublobectomy or pneumonectomy. Multivariable analyses showed that only age and resection type were independent predictors for CCSS and COS, respectively, throughout the period.

CONCLUSION

Conditional survival estimates for LS-SCLC generally increased over time, with the most significant improvement in patients with advanced stage of disease. Resection type and old age represented extremely important determinants of prognosis after a lengthy event-free follow-up period.

Conditional survival analysis of patients with resected non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Conditional survival (CS) analyses provide an estimate of survival accounting for years already survived after treatment. We aim to evaluate the difference between actuarial and conditional survival in patients following lung resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In addition, CS analyses are used to examine whether prognosticators of survival change over time following surgery.

Methods

Patients who underwent anatomic lung resection at a single institution for pathologic stage I-IIIA NSCLC between 2010 and 2021 were identified; those who underwent wedge resection for node-negative tumors ≤2 cm were also included. CS estimates were calculated as the probability of remaining disease-free after x years of nonrecurrence (CSx). Kaplan-Meier, log-rank, and Cox proportional hazard methods for examining CS were used for subgroup comparisons and assessing associations with baseline covariates.

Results

Overall, 863 patients met the study inclusion criteria, with a median follow-up of 44.1 months. Conditional overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were greater than actuarial rates at all time points after surgery. At the time of resection, male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.72; P = .032), tumor size >3 cm (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.23; P < .001), node positivity (HR, 3.31; 95% CI, 2.52-4.33; P < .001), and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001) were associated with DFS. However, if a patient lived 3 years without recurrence (CS3), these factors were no longer prognostic of DFS.

Conclusions

Conditional survival analyses provide dynamic assessments of OS and DFS after NSCLC resection. After 3 years without recurrence, certain characteristics associated with DFS at the time of surgery no longer prognosticate recurrence.

Surgeon Quality and Patient Survival After Resection for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

PURPOSE

The quality and outcomes of curative-intent lung cancer surgery vary in populations. Surgeons are key drivers of surgical quality. We examined the association between surgeon-level intermediate outcomes differences, patient survival differences, and potential mitigation by processes of care.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using a baseline population-based surgical resection cohort, we derived surgeon-level cut points for rates of positive margins, nonexamination of lymph nodes, nonexamination of mediastinal lymph nodes, and wedge resections. Applying the baseline cut points to a subsequent cohort from the same population-based data set, we assign surgeons into three performance categories in reference to each metric: 1 (<25th percentile), 2 (25th-75th percentile), and 3 (>75th percentile). The sum of performance scores created three surgeon quality tiers: 1 (4-6, low), 2 (7-9, intermediate), and 3 (10-12, high). We used chi-squared, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney, and Kruskal-Wallis tests to compare patient characteristics between the baseline and subsequent cohorts and across surgeon tiers. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between patient survival and surgeon performance tier, sequentially adjusting for clinical stage, patient characteristics, and four specific processes.

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2021, 39 surgeons performed 4,082 resections across the baseline and subsequent cohorts. Among 31 subsequent cohort surgeons, five were tier 1, five were tier 2, and 21 were tier 3. Tier 1 and 2 surgeons had significantly worse outcomes than tier 3 surgeons (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.72 and 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.43, respectively). Adjustment for specific processes mitigated the surgeon-tiered survival differences, with adjusted HRs of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.8 to 1.3) and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.25), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Readily accessible intermediate outcomes metrics can be used to stratify surgeon performance for targeted process improvement, potentially reducing patient survival disparities.

Causes of death and conditional survival estimates of long-term lung cancer survivors

Introduction

Lung cancer ranks the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. This retrospective cohort study was designed to determine time-dependent death hazards of diverse causes and conditional survival of lung cancer.

Methods

We collected 816,436 lung cancer cases during 2000-2015 in the SEER database, after exclusion, 612,100 cases were enrolled for data analyses. Cancer-specific survival, overall survival and dynamic death hazard were assessed in this study. Additionally, based on the FDA approval time of Nivolumab in 2015, we evaluated the effect of immunotherapy on metastatic patients’ survival by comparing cases in 2016-2018 (immunotherapy era, n=7135) and those in 2013-2016 (non-immunotherapy era, n=42061).

Results

Of the 612,100 patients, 285,705 were women, the mean (SD) age was 68.3 (11.0) years old. 252,558 patients were characterized as lung adenocarcinoma, 133,302 cases were lung squamous cell carcinoma, and only 78,700 cases were small cell lung carcinomas. TNM stage was I in 140,518 cases, II in 38,225 cases, III in 159,095 cases, and IV in 274,262 patients. 164,394 cases underwent surgical intervention. The 5-y overall survival and cancer-specific survival were 54.2% and 73.8%, respectively. The 5-y conditional survival rate of cancer-specific survival is improved in a time-dependent pattern, while conditional overall survival tends to be steady after 5-y follow-up. Except from age, hazard disparities of other risk factors (such as stage and surgery) diminished over time according to the conditional survival curves. After 8 years since diagnosis, mortality hazard from other causes became higher than that from lung cancer. This critical time point was earlier in elder patients while was postponed in patients with advanced stages. Moreover, both cancer-specific survival and overall survival of metastatic patients in immunotherapy era were significantly better than those in non-immunotherapy era (P<0.001), indicating that immunotherapeutic intervention indeed bring remarkable benefits to advanced lung cancer patients.

Conclusions

Our findings expand on previous studies by demonstrating that non-lung-cancer related death risk becomes more and more predominant over the course of follow-up, and we establish a personalized web-based calculator to determine this critical time point for long-term survivors. We also confirmed the survival benefit of advanced lung cancer patients in immunotherapy era.

Diffusion kurtosis imaging: correlation analysis of quantitative model parameters with molecular features in advanced lung adenocarcinoma

Background:

Due to development of magnetic resonance-based functional imaging, it is easier to detect micro-structural alterations of tumor tissues. The aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the correlation of non-Gaussian diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) parameters with expression of molecular markers (epidermal growth factor receptor [EGFR]; anaplastic lymphoma kinase [ALK]; Ki-67 protein) in patients with advanced lung adenocarcinoma, using routine diffusion-weighted imaging as the reference standard.

Methods:

Data from patients with primary lung adenocarcinoma diagnosed at Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CHCAMS) from 2016 to 2019 were collected for retrospective analysis. The pathologic and magnetic resonance imaging data of 96 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in this study. Specifically, the K_app and D_app parameters measured from the DKI model; apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value from the diffusion-weighted imaging model; and the EGFR, ALK, and Ki-67 biomarkers detected by immunohistochemistry and/or molecular biology techniques after biopsy or surgery were evaluated. The relations between quantitative parameters (ADC, K_app, D_app) and pathologic outcomes (EGFR, ALK, and Ki-67 expression) were analyzed by Spearman correlation test.

Results:

Of the 96 lung adenocarcinoma lesions (from 96 patients), the number of EGFR- and ALK-positive and high Ki-67 expressing lesions were 53, 12, and 83, respectively. The K_app values were significantly higher among patients with EGFR-positive mutations (0.81 ± 0.12 vs. 0.66 ± 0.10, t = 6.41, P < 0.001), ALK rearrangement-negative (0.76 ± 0.12 vs. 0.60 ± 0.15, t = 4.09, P < 0.001), and high Ki-67 proliferative index (PI) (0.76 ± 0.12 vs. 0.58 ± 0.13, t = 4.88, P < 0.001). The D_app values were significantly lower among patients with high Ki-67 PI (3.19 ± 0.69 μm²/ms vs. 4.20 ± 0.83 μm²/ms, t = 4.80, P < 0.001) and EGFR-positive mutations (3.11 ± 0.73 μm²/ms vs. 3.59 ± 0.77 μm²/ms, t = 3.12, P = 0.002). The differences in mean D_app (3.73 ± 1.26 μm²/ms vs. 3.26 ± 0.68 μm²/ms, t = 1.96, P = 0.053) or ADC values ([1.34 ± 0.81] × 10⁻³ mm²/s vs. [1.33 ± 0.41] × 10⁻³ mm²/s, t = 0.07, P = 0.941) between the groups with or without ALK rearrangements were not statistically significant. The ADC values were significantly lower among patients with EGFR-positive mutation ([1.19 ± 0.37] × 10⁻³ mm²/s vs. [1.50 ± 0.53] × 10⁻³ mm²/s, t = 3.38, P = 0.001) and high Ki-67 PI ([1.28 ± 0.39] × 10⁻³ mm²/s vs. [1.67 ± 0.77] × 10⁻³ mm²/s, t = 2.88, P = 0.005). K_app was strongly positively correlated with EGFR mutations (r = 0.844, P = 0.008), strongly positively correlated with Ki-67 PI (r = 0.882, P = 0.001), and strongly negatively correlated with ALK rearrangements (r = −0.772, P = 0.001). D_app was moderately correlated with EGFR mutations (r = −0.650, P = 0.024) or Ki-67 PI (r = −0.734, P = 0.012). ADC was moderately correlated with Ki-67 PI (r = −0.679, P = 0.033).

Conclusions:

The K_app value of DKI parameters was strongly correlated with different expression of EGFR, ALK, and Ki-67 in advanced lung adenocarcinoma. The results potentially indicate a surrogate measure of the status of different molecular markers assessed by non-invasive imaging tools.

Conditional Survival of Surgically Treated Patients with Lung Cancer: A Comprehensive Analyses of Overall, Recurrence-free, and Relative Survival

Purpose

Survival probability changes over time in cancer survivors. This study examined conditional survival in patients undergoing curative resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Materials and Methods

Five-year conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS), conditional overall survival (COS), and conditional relative survival (CRS) up to 10 years after surgery were calculated in patients who underwent NSCLC resection from 1994 to 2016. These rates were stratified according to age, sex, year of diagnosis, pathological stage, tumor histology, smoking status, comorbidity, and lung function.

Results

Five-year CRFS increased from 65.6% at baseline to 90.9% at 10 years after surgery. Early differences in 5-year CRFS according to stratified patient characteristics disappeared, except for age: older patients exhibited persistently lower 5-year CRFS. Five-year COS increased from 72.7% to 78.3% at 8 years and then decreased to 75.4% at 10 years. Five-year CRS increased from 79.0% at baseline to 86.8% at 10 years. Older age and higher pathologic stage were associated with lower 5-year COS and CRS up to 10 years after surgery. Female patients, those with adenocarcinoma histology, non-smokers, patient without comorbidities and had good lung function showed higher COS and CRS.

Conclusion

CRFS improved over time, but significant risk remained after 5 years. CRS slightly improved over time but did not reach 90%, suggesting significant excess mortality compared to the general population. Age and stage remained significant predictors of conditional survival several years after surgery. Our conditional survival estimates should help clinicians and patients make informed treatment and personal life decisions based on survivorship status.

Conditional relative survival and competing mortality in patients who underwent surgery for lung cancer: A nationwide cohort study

We aimed to investigate the conditional relative survival (CRS) and competing mortality in patients who underwent surgery for newly diagnosed lung cancer. Using a nationwide population-based database, we calculated 5-year CRS on 1 to 5 years survival after surgery. These rates were reported according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbidities and treatment received. We also estimated cause-specific mortality with the consideration of competing risk. We identified 34 349 patients newly diagnosed with primary lung cancer from 2007 to 2013. The 5-year CRS after surgery was 71.7% at baseline improving steadily to 85.4% by 5 years, suggesting evidence of persistent excess mortality risk. Throughout the period, lung cancer was the most common cause of death, contributing to 83.6% mortality 1 year after surgery and 66.3% 5 years after surgery. Other causes of death included cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease, which increased continuously with time after surgery. CRS rates for patients with lung cancer improved over time but did not reach the level of the general population even 5 years after surgery. Although the main cause of death continues to be lung cancer, death from noncancer causes increased with time after surgery. Evidence-based decisions could be made on the dynamic risk profiles of the patients.

Conditional Survival of female patients with operable invasive Breast Cancer in US: A population-based study

Background: Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe the dynamic possibility of survival, considering the changes of death risk with time lapsing. This study aimed to estimate the conditional disease-specific survival (CDS) for the female with operable invasive breast cancer.

Methods: The data was obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program of the National Cancer Institute. The hazard rate was calculated using kernel density smoothing method. The disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were estimated and compared using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The Cox regression model was used to adjust confounding factors. The CDS was calculated by CDS(y|x)=DSS(x + y)/DSS(x), where DSS(x) representatives the DSS at x year.

Results: The 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year DSS was 88.7%, 82.0%, and 78.3%, respectively. The hazard rate after surgery increased initially and peaked at about 1.5 years, then decreased gradually. Meanwhile, the CDS decreased just after surgery then increased continuously, which showed a contrary trend with hazard rate. Patients with high risk factors had greater survival gap between cumulative DSS and CDS. The changing trend of CDS in patients with high risk factors was more significant, and the CDS gap between low-risk patients and high-risk patients gradually decreased over time.

Conclusion: CS could provide a more precise long-term prognostic evaluation compared to traditional cumulative survival, especially for long-time survivors with high risk.

Conditional survival analysis of four treatment strategies for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer

Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe dynamic survival possibility, taking account of the change in the survival risk that occurs with longevity. The present study aimed to explore the CS of four treatment strategies for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), staged according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control NSCLC staging system. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program cohort obtained between 2004-2014, the current study first extracted data for 27,116 patients with stage I NSCLC. The actuarial cancer-specific survival rates (ACSs) and conditional cancer-specific survival rates of four treatment strategies were then compared. ACS was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test. The 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCS3) of patients who had already survived for n years was calculated as CCS3=ACS(n+3)/ACS(n). Cox regression and propensity-score matching (PSM) was applied to adjust confounding factors. The 5-year ACS of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 80.3, 72.0, 40.8 and 19.6%, respectively. The 5-year CCS3 of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 91.7, 86.4, 77.0 and 58.2%, respectively. CCS3 increased with an increase in survival time and patients who underwent lobectomy had the highest CCS3 estimates and flattest growth, with the smallest survival gap between CCS3 and ACS. The results were similar in the PSM analysis. In conclusion, CS estimates may provide a more accurate survival prediction for patients with stage I NSCLC, and may assist with treatment decisions and surveillance strategies. In addition, the current study provided evidence that suggests lobectomy may be the optimal treatment strategy for stage I NSCLC compared with sublobar resection.

Dynamic prognostication using conditional survival analysis for patients with operable lung adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate conditional survival among patients with surgically resected stage I-IIIa lung adenocarcinoma and identify changes in prognostic contributions for various prognostic factors over time.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed conditional survival analysis at each t0 (=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years) for 723 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for lung adenocarcinoma, stratified by various clinico-demographic features, as well as pathologic and imaging (tumor-shadow disappearance ratio [TDR] on CT and maximum standardized uptake value [SUVmax] on PET) characteristics. Uni- and multivariableCox regression analyses were performed to evaluate relationships between those variables and conditional survival.

RESULTS

Three-year conditional overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were 92.12% and 75.51% at baseline, but improved steadily up to 98.33% and 95.95% at 5 years after surgery. In contrast to demographic factors, pathologic (stage, subtype, pathologic grade and differentiation) and radiologic factors (TDR and SUVmax) maintained a statistically significant association with subseqeunt 3-year OS until 3 years after surgery. According to the multivariableanalysis, high SUVmax and low TDR value were independent predictors of subsequent 3-year OS and DFS at baseline, 1 and 2 years after surgery, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings based on CS provide theoretical background for clinicians to plan longer period of surveillance following lung adenocarcinoma resection in survivors with preoperatively high SUVmax and low TDR on PET-CT and chest CT, respectively.

A National Study of Survival Trends and Conditional Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Analysis of the National Population-Based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Registry

Purpose

Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry.

Materials and Methods

Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method.

Results

registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method.

Results

For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990-1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time.

Conclusion

Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.