Asking sensitive questions in conservation using Randomised Response Techniques

Aiding the well celebrated Kuk's randomized response technique through auxiliary and prior information

Asking direct questions in face to face surveys about sensitive traits is an intricate issue. One of the solutions to this issue is the randomized response technique (RRT). Being the most widely used indirect questioning technique to obtain truthful data on sensitive traits in survey sampling RRT has been applied in a variety of fields including behavioral science, socio-economic, psychological, epidemiology, biomedical, criminology, data masking, public health engineering, conservation studies, ecological studies and many others. This paper aims at exploring the methods to subsidize the randomized response technique through additional information relevant to the parameter of interest. Specifically, we plan to contribute by proposing more efficient hybrid estimators compared to existing estimator based on (Kuk, 1990) [31] family of randomized response models. The proposed estimators are based on the methodology of incorporating the pertinent information, available on the basis of either historical records or expert opinion. Specifically, in case of availability of auxiliary information, the regression-cum-ratio estimator is found to be the best to further enhance the estimation through (Kuk, 1990) [31] model while the (Thompson, 1968) [49] shrinkage estimation is observed to be yielding more precise and accurate estimator of sensitive proportion. The findings in this study signify the importance of the proposed methodology. Additionally, to support the mathematical findings, a detailed numerical investigation to evaluate the comparative performances is also conducted. Based on performance analysis, overwhelming evidences are witnessed in the favor of proposed strategies.

John FAV. Topic sensitivity still affects honest responding, even when specialized questioning techniques are used

To develop more effective interventions, conservationists require robust information about the proportion of people who break conservation rules (such as those relating to protected species, or protected area legislation). Developed to obtain more accurate estimates of sensitive behaviors, including rule-breaking, specialized questioning techniques such as Randomized Response Techniques (RRTs) are increasingly applied in conservation, but with mixed evidence of their effectiveness. We use a forced-response RRT to estimate the prevalence of five rule-breaking behaviors in communities living around the Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystem in Tanzania. Prevalence estimates obtained for all behaviors were negative or did not differ significantly from zero, suggesting the RRT did not work as expected and that respondents felt inadequately protected. To investigate, we carried out a second study to explore how topic sensitivity influenced respondents' propensity to follow RRT instructions. Results from this experimental study revealed respondents understood instructions well (~88% of responses were correct) but that propensity to follow RRT instructions was significantly influenced by the behavior asked about, and the type of answer they were required to provide. Our two studies highlight that even if RRTs are well understood by respondents, where topics are sensitive and respondents are wary of researchers, their use does not necessarily encourage more honest responding.

Acoustic Monitoring Confirms Significant Poaching Pressure of European Turtle Doves (Streptopelia turtur) during Spring Migration across the Ionian Islands, Greece

The European turtle dove (Streptopelia turtur) is an Afro-Palearctic migrant whose populations have declined by 79% from 1980 to 2014. In 2018, the International Single Species Action Plan for the Turtle Dove (ISSAP) was developed with the goal of enabling, by 2028, an increase in turtle dove numbers along each of the three migration flyways (western, central, eastern). To achieve this, the illegal killing of turtle doves, a critical threat to the species, has to be eradicated. The Ionian Islands off the west coast of Greece lie on the eastern flyway and are considered a major turtle dove poaching hot-spot during spring migration. Quantifying wildlife crime, however, is challenging. In the absence of a reliable protocol for monitoring spring poaching levels, the agencies tasked with tackling the problem have no means of assessing the effectiveness of the anti-poaching measures and adapting them if required. Using passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) methods, we recorded gun hunting intensity at known turtle dove poaching sites during the 2019-2022 spring migrations (2-10 sites/season) with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. Based on published gunshot to killed/injured bird ratio for similar species (corroborated with discussions with local hunters) and an estimate of the proportion of hunting sites monitored by our PAM grid (using gunshot detection range estimates from control gunshots), we estimated that in 2021, up to 57,095 turtle doves were killed or injured across five Ionian Islands (Zakynthos, Paxi, Antipaxi, Othoni, and Mathraki). The 2022 estimate was almost half, but it is unclear as to whether the change is due to a decline in poachers or turtle doves. We propose ways of improving confidence in future estimates, and call for a temporary moratorium of autumn turtle dove hunting in Greece-as per ISSAP recommendation-until spring poaching is eradicated and the eastern flyway population shows signs of a full recovery. Finally, we hope our findings will pave the way for the development of PAM grids at turtle dove poaching hot-spots across all migration flyways, contributing to the global conservation of the species.

Hidden figures: Revisiting doping prevalence estimates previously reported for two major international sport events in the context of further empirical evidence and the extant literature

Background

High levels of admitted doping use (43.6% and 57.1%) were reported for two international sport events in 2011. Because these are frequently referenced in evaluating aspects of anti-doping, having high level of confidence in these estimates is paramount.

Objectives

In this study, we present new prevalence estimates from a concurrently administered method, the Single Sample Count (SSC), and critically review the two sets of estimates in the context of other doping prevalence estimates.

Methods

The survey featuring the SSC model was completed by 1,203 athletes at the 2011 World Championships in Athletics (WCA) (65.3% of all participating athletes) and 954 athletes at the 2011 Pan-Arab Games (PAG) (28.2% of all participating athletes). At WCA, athletes completed both UQM and SSC surveys in randomised order. At PAG, athletes were randomly allocated to one of the two surveys. Doping was defined as "having knowingly violated anti-doping regulations by using a prohibited substance or method."

Results

Estimates with the SSC model for 12-month doping prevalence were 21.2% (95% CI: 9.69-32.7) at WCA and 10.6% (95% CI: 1.76-19.4) at PAG. Estimated herbal, mineral, and/or vitamin supplements use was 8.57% (95% CI: 1.3-16.11) at PAG. Reliability of the estimates were confirmed with re-sampling method (n = 1,000, 80% of the sample). Survey non-compliance (31.90%, 95%CI: 26.28-37.52; p < 0.0001) was detected in the WCA data but occurred to a lesser degree at PAG (9.85%, 95% CI: 4.01-15.69, p = 0.0144 and 11.43%, 95% CI: 5.31-11.55, p = 0.0196, for doping and nutritional supplement use, respectively). A large discrepancy between those previously reported from the UQM and the prevalence rate estimated by the SSC model for the same population is evident.

Conclusion

Caution in interpreting these estimates as bona fide prevalence rates is warranted. Critical appraisal of the obtained prevalence rates and triangulation with other sources are recommended over "the higher rate must be closer to the truth" heuristics. Non-compliance appears to be the Achilles heel of the indirect estimation models thus it should be routinely tested for and minimised. Further research into cognitive and behaviour aspects, including motivation for honesty, is needed to improve the ecological validity of the estimated prevalence rates.

Experimental validation of specialized questioning techniques in conservation

Conservation increasingly relies on social science tools to understand human behavior. Specialized questioning techniques (SQTs) are a suite of methods designed to reduce bias in social surveys and are widely used to collect data on sensitive topics, including compliance with conservation rules. Most SQTs have been developed in Western, industrialized, educated, rich, and democratic countries, meaning their suitability in other contexts may be limited. Whether these techniques perform better than conventional direct questioning is important for those considering their use. We designed an experiment to validate the performance of four SQTs (unmatched count technique, randomized response technique, crosswise model, and bean method) against direct questions when asking about a commonly researched sensitive behavior in conservation, wildlife hunting. We developed fictional characters, and for each method asked respondents to report the answers that each fictional character should give when asked if they hunt wildlife. We collected data from 609 individuals living close to protected areas in two different cultural and socioeconomic contexts (Indonesia and Tanzania) to quantify the extent to which respondents understood and followed SQT instructions and to explore the sociodemographic factors that influenced a correct response. Data were modeled using binomial general linear mixed models. Participants were more likely to refuse to answer questions asked using SQTs compared with direct questions. Model results suggested that SQTs were harder for participants to understand. Demographic factors (e.g., age and education level) significantly influenced response accuracy. When sensitive responses to sensitive questions were required, all SQTs (excluding the bean method) outperformed direct questions, demonstrating that SQTs can successfully reduce sensitivity bias. However, when reviewing each method, most respondents (59-89%) reported they would feel uncomfortable using them to provide information on their own hunting behavior, highlighting the considerable challenge of encouraging truthful reporting on sensitive topics. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the suitability of social science methods prior to their implementation in conservation contexts.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Human–Carnivore Encounters in a Seasonally Changing Landscape: A Case Study of the Fishing Cat in Hakaluki Haor, Bangladesh

Identifying spatial and temporal patterns of human–carnivore encounters is crucial for predicting conflict hotspots. However, the degree of overlap between human and carnivore movements is likely to differ between stable environments and seasonally changing landscapes. We aimed to clarify key drivers of spatial and temporal overlap of humans and carnivores in a seasonally changing landscape using the case of human–fishing cat encounters in an inland wetland in north-eastern Bangladesh. To obtain encounter information, interview surveys were conducted with 210 respondents in 21 villages in 2020. Monthly rainfall and waterbody size were negatively correlated with the numbers of encounters in the wetland area, while there was no apparent temporal pattern in encounters reported in adjacent villages. Temporal patterns of encounters may be partially explained by human presence (in turn associated with local livelihoods). Except for fishing, intense livelihood activities take place in wetland areas mainly during the dry season. On the other hand, areas peripheral to the wetlands are used for various livelihood activities throughout the year. In a seasonally changing landscape, understanding people’s movements could help elucidate spatiotemporal patterns of human–fishing cat encounters at a micro-scale.

John FAV, Davies ZG. Drivers of Predator Killing by Rural Residents and Recommendations for Fostering Coexistence in Agricultural Landscapes

Predators inhabiting human-dominated landscapes are vulnerable to various anthropogenic actions, including people killing them. We assess potential drivers of predator killing in an agricultural landscape in southern Chile, and discuss the implications for policies and interventions to promote coexistence. We evaluate five different types of motivation: (i) sociodemographics and household economy; (ii) livestock loss; (iii) predator encounter rates; (iv) knowledge of legal protection (all native predators are currently protected); and, (v) tolerance to livestock predation. As the killing of native predators is illegal, the prevalence of this behavior by rural residents was estimated using a symmetrical forced-response randomized response technique (RRT), a method designed to ask sensitive questions. A total of 233 rural residents from randomly assigned sample units (4 km2) across the study region completed our questionnaire. More conspicuous species, such as hawks (Falconiformes sp), foxes (Lycalopex sp) and free-roaming domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris), were killed by a higher proportion of farmers than more cryptic species, like the felid güiña (Leopardus guigna), skunk (Conepatus chinga) and pumas (Puma concolor). The proportion of respondents admitting to killing predators was highest for hawks (mean = 0.46, SE = 0.08), foxes (mean = 0.29, SE = 0.08) and dogs (mean = 0.30, SE = 0.08) and lowest for güiña (mean = 0.10, SE = 0.09), which is the only species of conservation concern we examine (considered Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List). From our five motivation categories, past killing of predators was associated with higher reported predator encounter rates (guina, hawks), lower tolerance to livestock predation (hawks, dogs), higher reported livestock loss (dogs) and sociodemographics and household economy (foxes). Our results demonstrate that a one-size-fits-all approach to predator persecution is unlikely to reduce or eliminate illegal killings for the suite of species we examined. We identify and describe two main types of intervention that could foster coexistence, improvement of livestock management and domestic dog management in rural areas, as well as discussing the potential for social marketing.