A longitudinal cohort study of childhood MMR vaccination and seizure disorder among American children

Tree-temporal scan statistics for safety signal detection in vaccine clinical trials

The evaluation of safety is critical in all clinical trials. However, the quantitative analysis of safety data in clinical trials poses statistical difficulties because of multiple potentially overlapping endpoints. Tree-temporal scan statistic approaches address this issue and have been widely employed in other data sources, but not to date in clinical trials. We evaluated the performance of three complementary scan statistical methods for routine quantitative safety signal detection: the self-controlled tree-temporal scan (SCTTS), a tree-temporal scan based on group comparison (BGTTS), and a log-rank based tree-temporal scan (LgRTTS). Each method was evaluated using data from two phase III clinical trials, and simulated data (simulation study). In the case study, the reference set was adverse events (AEs) in the Reference Safety Information of the evaluated vaccine. The SCTTS method had higher sensitivity than other methods, and after dose 1 detected 80 true positives (TP) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 60%. The LgRTTS detected 49 TPs with 69% PPV. The BGTTS had 90% of PPV with 38 TPs. In the simulation study, with simulated reference sets of AEs, the SCTTS method had good sensitivity to detect transient effects. The LgRTTS method showed the best performance for the detection of persistent effects, with high sensitivity and expected probability of type I error. These three methods provide complementary approaches to safety signal detection in clinical trials or across clinical development programmes. All three methods formally adjust for multiple testing of large numbers of overlapping endpoints without being excessively conservative.

Current Approaches in Postapproval Vaccine Safety Studies Using Real-World Data: A Systematic Review of Published Literature

PURPOSE

Well-designed observational postmarketing studies using real-world data (RWD) are critical in supporting an evidence base and bolstering public confidence in vaccine safety. This systematic review presents current research methodologies in vaccine safety research in postapproval settings, technological advancements contributing to research resources and capabilities, and their major strengths and limitations.

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted using PubMed to identify relevant articles published from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022. Eligible studies were summarized overall by study design and other study characteristics (eg, country, vaccine studied, types of data source, and study population). An in-depth review of select studies representative of conventional or new designs, analytical approaches, or data collection methods was conducted to summarize current methods in vaccine safety research.

FINDINGS

Out of 977 articles screened for inclusion, 135 were reviewed. The review shows that recent advancements in scientific methods, digital technology, and analytic approaches have significantly contributed to postapproval vaccine safety studies using RWD. "Near real-time surveillance" using large datasets (via collaborative or distributed databases) has been used to facilitate rapid signal detection that complements passive surveillance. There was increasing appreciation for self-controlled case-only designs (self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk interval) to assess acute-onset safety outcomes, artificial intelligence, and natural language processing to improve outcome accuracy and study timeliness and emerging artificial intelligence-based analysis to capture adverse events from social media platforms.

IMPLICATIONS

Continued development in the area of vaccine safety research methodologies using RWD is warranted. The future of successful vaccine safety research, especially evaluation of rare safety events, is likely to comprise digital technologies including linking RWD networks, machine learning, and advanced analytic methods to generate rapid and robust real-world safety information.

Constitutional chromosomal anomalies in children, fetal alcohol syndrome, and maternal toxicant exposures: A longitudinal cohort study

DNA alterations in gametes, which may occur either spontaneously or as a result of exposure to genotoxicants, can lead to constitutional chromosomal anomalies in the offspring. Alcohol is an established genotoxicant. The goal of this hypothesis-testing longitudinal cohort study was to evaluate the effect of significant/sustained maternal alcohol exposure on clinically diagnosed constitutional chromosomal anomalies among children diagnosed with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). De-identified eligibility and claim healthcare records, prospectively generated from the 1990-2012 Florida Medicaid system within the Independent Healthcare Research Database (IHRD), were analyzed. Children examined were continuously eligible with ≥ 8 outpatient office visits during the 96-month period following birth. Among these children, 377 were diagnosed with FAS and 137,135 were not. The incidence rate of chromosomal anomalies involving segregation (trisomy 13, 18, or 21, n = 625), microdeletions (microdeletion syndromes, n = 39), and point mutations (sickle-cell anemia/cystic fibrosis, n = 2570) were examined using frequency risk ratio (RR) and logistic regression (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for sex, race, residence, socioeconomic/environmental exposure status, and birth date) models. The incidence rates of chromosomal anomalies involving segregation (RR=5.92, aOR=5.85) and microdeletions (RR=41.6, aOR=34.1) were significantly increased in the FAS cohort as compared to the non-diagnosed cohort, but there was no difference in the incidence rate of point mutations (RR=1.14, aOR=1.29). Maternal toxicant exposure should be considered in the etiology of constitutional chromosomal anomaly in offspring.

Colon Cancer Risk Following Intestinal Clostridioides difficile Infection: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background

The gut microbiome may play an important role in the etiology and progression of colon cancer. The present hypothesis-testing study compared the colon cancer incidence rate among adults diagnosed with intestinal Clostridioides (formerly Clostridium) difficile (Cdiff) (the Cdiff cohort) to adults not diagnosed with intestinal Cdiff infection (the non-Cdiff cohort).

Methods

De-identified eligibility and claim healthcare records within the Independent Healthcare Research Database (IHRD) from a longitudinal cohort of adults (the overall cohort) enrolled in the Florida Medicaid system between 1990 through 2012 were examined. Adults with ≥ 8 outpatient office visits over 8 years of continuous eligibility were examined. There were 964 adults in the Cdiff cohort and 292,136 adults in the non-Cdiff cohort. Frequency and Cox proportional hazards models were utilized.

Results

Colon cancer incidence rate in the non-Cdiff cohort remained relatively uniform over the entire study period, whereas a marked increase was observed in the Cdiff cohort within the first 4 years of a Cdiff diagnosis. Colon cancer incidence was significantly increased (about 2.7-fold) in the Cdiff cohort (3.11 per 1,000 person-years) compared to the non-Cdiff cohort (1.16 per 1,000 person-years). Adjustments for gender, age, residency, birthdate, colonoscopy screening, family history of cancer, and personal history of tobacco abuse, alcohol abuse/dependence, drug abuse/dependence, and overweight/obesity, as well as consideration of diagnostic status for ulcerative and infection colitis, immunodeficiency, and personal history of cancer did not significantly change the observed results.

Conclusions

This is the first epidemiological study associating Cdiff with an increased risk for colon cancer. Future studies should further evaluate this relationship.

Fetal alcohol syndrome and the risk of neurodevelopmental disorders: A longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

This hypothesis-testing study evaluated the relationship between fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) and neurodevelopmental disorder (ND) diagnoses within the Independent Healthcare Research Database (IHRD).

METHODS

De-identified eligibility and claim healthcare records prospectively generated from the 1990-2012 Florida Medicaid system were analyzed using SAS software. There were 89,766 children continuously eligible with ≥10 outpatient office visits during the 120 month period following birth in the cohort examined. A total of 321 children were diagnosed with FAS. Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (n = 922), tics (n = 551), attention deficit disorder/attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADD/ADHD) (n = 20,260), mental retardation (MR) (n = 915), and specific delays in development (SDD) (n = 24,630) incidence rates were examined using frequency risk ratio (RR) and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of tics (RR = 5.68), ADD/ADHD (RR = 2.30), MR (RR = 7.83), SDD (RR = 2.88), and ASD (RR = 6.74) were significantly increased among FAS diagnosed children as compared to undiagnosed children. Adjusted (for gender, race, residency, and date of birth) odds ratios (ORs) were significantly increased for tics (OR = 4.87), ADD/ADHD (OR = 3.40), MR (OR = 7.91), SDD (OR = 9.56), and ASD (OR = 6.87) when comparing the FAS diagnosed children to undiagnosed children.

CONCLUSION

Tens of thousands of American children with lifetime costs in the billions of US dollars were estimated to be impacted by FAS-associated NDs. These impacts are particularly tragic because FAS is dependent upon lifestyle.

Childhood MMR Vaccination Effectiveness Against Rubella: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

The vaccine effectiveness (VE) of childhood measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine to reduce childhood rubella infections in the US during the 1990s/2000s was undertaken in a retrospective longitudinal cohort study. SAS and StatsDirect software were utilized to examine non-identifiable linked eligibility and claim healthcare records prospectively generated from the Florida Medicaid system in the Independent Healthcare Research Database (IHRD). A total of 33 839 children received a single MMR vaccination (vaccinated) and 44 154 children never received a rubella-containing vaccine (unvaccinated) were continuously eligible from 1990 to 2009 for Florida Medicaid within the first 10 years following birth. Cox proportional hazards models determined VE against diagnosed rubella (ICD-9 code: 056.xx). Children receiving MMR were at significantly reduced risk of rubella in unadjusted (VE = 80.7%, 95% confidence interval = 73.7%-85.8%) and adjusted (VE = 78.6%, 95% confidence interval = 70.8%-84.3%) models as compared to unvaccinated children. Between 1991 and 2009, in the combined vaccinated-unvaccinated cohort examined on a yearly basis, a significant inverse correlation between increasing MMR vaccine population coverage and a decreasing incidence rate of diagnosed rubella was observed. This first large-scale population epidemiological study supports the routine use childhood MMR vaccination to significantly reduce childhood rubella infections and also supports its ability to induce “herd immunity.” This study, coupled with a recently published epidemiological study showing childhood MMR vaccination significantly reduced measles infections, provide powerful epidemiological evidence strongly supporting MMR vaccination as an effective tool to improve public health.