Tree-temporal scan statistics for safety signal detection in vaccine clinical trials

The evaluation of safety is critical in all clinical trials. However, the quantitative analysis of safety data in clinical trials poses statistical difficulties because of multiple potentially overlapping endpoints. Tree-temporal scan statistic approaches address this issue and have been widely employed in other data sources, but not to date in clinical trials. We evaluated the performance of three complementary scan statistical methods for routine quantitative safety signal detection: the self-controlled tree-temporal scan (SCTTS), a tree-temporal scan based on group comparison (BGTTS), and a log-rank based tree-temporal scan (LgRTTS). Each method was evaluated using data from two phase III clinical trials, and simulated data (simulation study). In the case study, the reference set was adverse events (AEs) in the Reference Safety Information of the evaluated vaccine. The SCTTS method had higher sensitivity than other methods, and after dose 1 detected 80 true positives (TP) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 60%. The LgRTTS detected 49 TPs with 69% PPV. The BGTTS had 90% of PPV with 38 TPs. In the simulation study, with simulated reference sets of AEs, the SCTTS method had good sensitivity to detect transient effects. The LgRTTS method showed the best performance for the detection of persistent effects, with high sensitivity and expected probability of type I error. These three methods provide complementary approaches to safety signal detection in clinical trials or across clinical development programmes. All three methods formally adjust for multiple testing of large numbers of overlapping endpoints without being excessively conservative.

Assurance in vaccine efficacy clinical trial design based on immunological responses

The assurance of a future clinical trial is a key quantitative tool for decision-making in drug development. It is derived from prior knowledge (Bayesian approach) about the clinical endpoint of interest, typically from previous clinical trials. In this paper, we examine assurance in the specific context of vaccine development, where early development (Phase 2) is often based on immunological endpoints (e.g., antibody levels), while the confirmatory trial (Phase 3) is based on the clinical endpoint (very large sample sizes and long follow-up). Our proposal is to use the Phase 2 vaccine efficacy predicted by the immunological endpoint (using a model estimated from epidemiological studies) as prior information for the calculation of the assurance.

Assessing correlates of protection in vaccine trials: statistical solutions in the context of high vaccine efficacy

Background

The use of correlates of protection (CoPs) in vaccination trials offers significant advantages as useful clinical endpoint substitutes. Vaccines with very high vaccine efficacy (VE) are documented in the literature (VE ≥95%). The rare events (number of infections) observed in the vaccinated groups of these trials posed challenges when applying conventionally-used statistical methods for CoP assessment. In this paper, we describe the nature of these challenges, and propose easy-to-implement and uniquely-tailored statistical solutions for the assessment of CoPs in the specific context of high VE.

Methods

The Prentice criteria and meta-analytic frameworks are standard statistical methods for assessing vaccine CoPs, but can be problematic in high VE cases due to the rare events data available. As a result, lack of fit and the problem of infinite estimates may arise, in the former and latter methods respectively. The use of flexible models within the Prentice framework, and penalized-likelihood methods to solve the issue of infinite estimates can improve the performance of both methods in high VE settings.

Results

We have 1) devised flexible non-linear models to counteract the Prentice framework lack of fit, providing sufficient statistical power to the method, and 2) proposed the use of penalised likelihood approaches to make the meta-analytic framework applicable on randomized subgroups, such as regions. The performance of the proposed methods for high VE cases was evaluated by running simulations.

Conclusions

As vaccines with high efficacy are documented in the literature, there is a need to identify effective statistical solutions to assess CoPs. Our proposed adaptations are straight-forward and improve the performance of conventional statistical methods for high VE data, leading to more reliable CoP assessments in the context of high VE settings.

Hemagglutination Inhibition Antibody Titers as a Correlate of Protection Against Seasonal A/H3N2 Influenza Disease

Background. To investigate the relationship between hemagglutinin-inhibition (HI) antibody levels to the risk of influenza disease, we conducted a correlate of protection analysis using pooled data from previously published randomized trials.

Methods. Data on the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed influenza and HI levels pre- and postvaccination were analyzed from 4 datasets: 3 datasets included subjects aged <65 years who received inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) or placebo, and 1 dataset included subjects aged ≥65 years who received AS03-adjuvanted TIV (AS03-TIV) or TIV. A logistic model was used to evaluate the relationship between the postvaccination titer of A/H3N2 HI antibodies and occurrence of A/H3N2 disease. We then built a receiver-operating characteristic curve to identify a potential cutoff titer between protection and no protection.

Results. The baseline odds ratio of A/H3N2 disease was higher for subjects aged ≥65 years than <65 years and higher in seasons of strong epidemic intensity than moderate or low intensity. Including age and epidemic intensity as covariates, a 4-fold increase in titer was associated with a 2-fold decrease in the risk of A/H3N2 disease.

Conclusions. The modeling exercise confirmed a relationship between A/H3N2 disease and HI responses, but it did not allow an evaluation of the predictive power of the HI response.

Effects of varying antigens and adjuvant systems on the immunogenicity and safety of investigational tetravalent human oncogenic papillomavirus vaccines: results from two randomized trials

BACKGROUND

A prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine targeting oncogenic HPV types in addition to HPV-16 and -18 may broaden protection against cervical cancer. Two Phase I/II, randomized, controlled studies were conducted to compare the immunogenicity and safety of investigational tetravalent HPV L1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, containing VLPs from two additional oncogenic genotypes, with the licensed HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine (control) in healthy 18-25 year-old women.

METHODS

In one trial (NCT00231413), subjects received control or one of 6 tetravalent HPV-16/18/31/45 AS04 vaccine formulations at months (M) 0,1,6. In a second trial (NCT00478621), subjects received control or one of 5 tetravalent HPV-16/18/33/58 vaccines formulated with different adjuvant systems (AS04, AS01 or AS02), administered on different schedules (M0,1,6 or M0,3 or M0,6).

RESULTS

One month after the third injection (Month 7), there was a consistent trend for lower anti-HPV-16 and -18 geometric mean antibody titers (GMTs) for tetravalent AS04-adjuvanted vaccines compared with control. GMTs were statistically significantly lower for an HPV-16/18/31/45 AS04 vaccine containing 20/20/10/10 μg VLPs for both anti-HPV-16 and anti-HPV-18 antibodies, and for an HPV-16/18/33/58 AS04 vaccine containing 20/20/20/20 μg VLPs for anti-HPV-16 antibodies. There was also a trend for lower HPV-16 and -18-specific memory B-cell responses for tetravalent AS04 vaccines versus control. No such trends were observed for CD4(+) T-cell responses. Immune interference could not always be overcome by increasing the dose of HPV-16/18 L1 VLPs or by using a different adjuvant system. All formulations had acceptable reactogenicity and safety profiles. Reactogenicity in the 7-day post-vaccination period tended to increase with the introduction of additional VLPs, especially for formulations containing AS01.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV-16 and -18 antibody responses were lower when additional HPV L1 VLPs were added to the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine. Immune interference is a complex phenomenon that cannot always be overcome by changing the antigen dose or adjuvant system.

LY2189265, a long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue, showed a dose-dependent effect on insulin secretion in healthy subjects

AIM

To assess the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and potential immunogenicity of single, escalating subcutaneous injections of a once-weekly glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue in healthy subjects.

METHODS

This phase 1, three-period, crossover, double-blind, placebo-controlled study investigated single, escalating subcutaneous doses of LY2189265 (LY) ranging from 0.1 to 12 mg; approximately six subjects were randomized to each dose. Parameters of safety, including adverse events, were assessed. The pharmacokinetic profile was assessed over 14 days. Pharmacodynamic parameters (glucose and insulin concentrations) were measured following a step-glucose infusion (day 3) and as part of an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (day 5).

RESULTS

LY was generally well tolerated with some increase in gastrointestinal symptoms with escalating doses. There were small dose-dependent increases in pulse rate with doses ≥1.0 mg and diastolic blood pressure with doses ≥3.0 mg. The half-life of LY was approximately 90 h, with C(max) occurring between 24 and 48 h in most subjects. Evidence of increase in glucose-dependent insulin secretion and suppression of serum glucose excursions were observed during an OGTT at all doses compared to placebo; no episodes of hypoglycaemia occurred. No subjects developed antibodies to LY2189265.

CONCLUSIONS

LY showed an acceptable safety profile and exhibited the expected glucagon-like peptide-1 pharmacological effects on glucose suppression and insulin secretion with a half-life that supports once-weekly dosing.

A 5-week study of the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of LY2189265, a novel, long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue, in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIM

To investigate the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of LY2189265 (LY), a novel, long-acting glucagen-like peptide-1 analogue, administered once weekly to subjects with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This was a placebo-controlled, parallel-group, subject- and investigator-blind study of LY in subjects (N = 43) with type 2 diabetes mellitus controlled with diet and exercise alone or with a single oral antidiabetic medication. Subjects taking metformin or thiazolidinediones continued on their therapy. Subjects receiving sulfonylurea, acarbose, repaglinide or nateglinide were switched to metformin prior to enrollment. Subjects received five once-weekly doses of 0.05, 0.3, 1, 3, 5 or 8 mg. Effects on glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations were determined during fasting and following standard test meals. The pharmacokinetics of LY and its effects on HBA1c, glucagon, body weight, gastric emptying and safety parameters were assessed.

RESULTS

Once-weekly administration of LY significantly reduced (p < 0.01) fasting plasma glucose, 2-h post-test meal postprandial glucose and area under the curve (AUC) of glucose after test meals at doses ≥1 mg. These effects were seen after the first dose and were sustained through the weekly dosing cycle. Most doses produced statistically significant increases in insulin and C-peptide AUC when normalized for glucose AUC. Statistically significant reductions in HBA1c were observed for all dose groups except 0.3 mg. The most commonly reported adverse effects (AEs) were nausea (35 events), headache (20 events), vomiting (18 events) and diarrhoea (8 events).

CONCLUSIONS

LY showed improvement in fasting and postprandial glycaemic parameters when administered once weekly in subjects with type 2 diabetes. The pharmacokinetics and safety profiles also support further investigation of this novel agent.

Long-term persistence of anti-HPV-16 and -18 antibodies induced by vaccination with the AS04-adjuvanted cervical cancer vaccine: modeling of sustained antibody responses

OBJECTIVES

Strong and sustained HPV-16 and -18 antibody responses have been observed in previously unexposed women aged 15-25 years vaccinated with the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 L1 virus-like particle vaccine. While awaiting the extended results of ongoing trials, our objective was to predict the long-term persistence of anti-HPV-16/18 antibodies in vaccinees by applying three statistical models using immunogenicity data from vaccinated women with serum samples collected up to 6.4 years after first vaccination. Two different data lock-points (up to 5.5 years and up to 6.4 years) were used to assess the robustness of the models.

METHODS

Three statistical models were applied to estimate the long-term persistence of anti-HPV-16/18 antibodies in 393 women vaccinated with the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine. Individual antibody levels for each study participant at each timepoint up to 6.4 years were input to previously published power-law and modified power-law models. The power-law model estimates antibody decay over time. The modified power-law model takes into account both antibody persistence over time and immune memory. A third model, the piece-wise model, fits the data based on three different non-overlapping intervals (between Months 7 and 12, Months 12 and 21, and over 21 months), corresponding to the observed decay of vaccine-induced antibodies.

RESULTS

HPV-16 and -18 antibodies peaked at Month 7 and gradually plateaued at Months 18-24 and remained stable through 6.4 years. Mean antibody levels at the last timepoint were several fold higher than those associated with natural infection. All three models predict that HPV-16 and -18 mean antibody levels will remain well above those associated with natural infection for at least 20 years, when using data from 5.5 as well as 6.4 years' follow-up. Predictions are similar for the modified power-law model and improve with longer follow-up for both the power-law and the piece-wise models.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination with the AS04-adjuvanted HPV-16/18 vaccine is predicted to provide long-term persistence for both HPV-16 and -18 antibodies, independent of the statistical model applied. Model predictions are based on conservative mathematical assumptions. Since the input of longer term data of up to 6.4 years showed an improved profile compared with that for data up to 5.5 years, the predictions of antibody persistence based on population means are conservative when predicting that antibody levels will remain well above levels induced by natural infection for 20 years.

Joint detection of important biomarkers and optimal dose-response model using penalties

We propose a method to jointly detect influential biomarkers and estimate how they change with dose. The assessment is made in dose-ranging trials collecting multiple outcomes for efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics. We regress all these outcomes versus a non-parametric transformation of the dose. The regression coefficients and the parameters from the dose-response model are simultaneously estimated using a penalized alternating least-squares method. We illustrate the technique with a phase I clinical trial and a metabonomic experiment in rats.

Effect of upper respiratory tract infection on AIR inhaled insulin pharmacokinetics and glucodynamics in healthy subjects

The suitability of employing AIR Inhaled Insulin (AIR Insulin; AIR is a registered trademark of Alkermes) during acute upper respiratory tract infection (URI) has not been determined. Twenty-one healthy, non-diabetic subjects were enrolled in a single-sequence, two-period, euglycemic clamp study. Subjects received a single 12 U-equivalent dose of AIR Insulin before rhinovirus (RV16) inoculation and during symptomatic infection. Spirometry was used to evaluate pulmonary safety. AIR Insulin exposure (the area under the immunoreactive insulin (IRI) concentration vs time curve from time zero until the IRI concentrations returned to the predose baseline value (AUC(0-t'))) and glucodynamic response (total amount of glucose infused (G(tot))) were comparable before and during RV infection (AUC(0-t') 46,300 vs 52,600 pmol min/l, P=0.21; G(tot) 61,800 vs 68,700 mg, P=0.42, respectively). Variability of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters did not change during URI; either did the number or intensity of adverse events. No significant change in forced expiratory volume or forced vital capacity was observed following AIR Insulin administration or during URI. The AIR Insulin system provides similar pharmacokinetic and glucodynamic responses under conditions of an experimentally induced RV infection and is regarded as suitable for use in diabetic patients during URIs.

Height velocity in Argentinean girls with Turner's syndrome

Height velocities from birth to maturity derived from 1,049 height increments measured over intervals 0.85-1.15 years were studied from a sample of 187 patients with Turner's syndrome (TS) diagnosed on the basis of karyotype. Length of follow up in each girl varied from 1.0 to 11.0 years. Cross-sectional analysis showed a relatively stable growth velocity during pubertal ages. However, longitudinal analysis of individual growth curves showed the existence of a small growth spurt in 37 out of 47 girls with available data during pubertal years. Mean peak height velocity (PHV) of this spurt was 5.7 cm/year, SD 1.34; mean age at PHV was 12.66 years, SD 1.70. Selected percentiles were calculated using the least mean squares (LMS) method. Results show that a small growth spurt in girls with TS may be more frequent than previously thought.

Lymphocyte subsets and cytokines in adenoviral infection in children

To determine the distribution of major blood lymphocyte subsets we evaluated blood lymphocytes by flow cytometry in adenovirus-infected infants aged 30-730 d. In addition, interleukin-1-receptor antagonist, interleukin-10 and transforming growth factor-beta1 were measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. According to clinical parameters, mechanical ventilation and outcome, infections were classified as moderate (n = 15), severe (n = 11) and fatal (n = 12). Controls were 13 healthy children. In severe and fatal infection, T cells (CD5+/CD19-), NK effectors (CD16+), CD4+ T subset and B1 subset of B lymphocytes (CD5+/CD19+) were all significantly decreased. CD8+ cells were decreased in severe but not fatal cases. There was no difference in serum values of interleukin-10; however, fatal cases had high interleukin 1-receptor antagonist values. Interestingly, patients with moderate infection showed significantly increased values of transforming growth factor-beta1. These results demonstrate that life-threatening adenoviral infection is associated with marked abnormalities in blood lymphocyte and cytokine profile.

The organisation of a national survey for evaluating child psychomotor development in Argentina

A total of 211 selected paediatricians were invited to participate in a national survey designed to evaluate the age of attainment of developmental milestones in children aged 0-5 years. Following a pilot study and a cascade training design, 61.1% of the paediatricians successfully completed the data collection on 139 developmental items. In the pilot study, there were more missing (not performed) items in children over one year of age, thus confirming the impression that paediatricians are more familiar with evaluating development in infants. However, in the age range 1-5 years, there were significantly fewer missing items in the gross motor area than in the other areas. Following a training programme and data editing and cleaning, a final sample of 3573 healthy, normal children was obtained. The impact of the training process was significant, in the sense that 3.5% of the items in children older than one year were not performed by the paediatricians before training, but this percentage was reduced to 1.9% after training (P < 0.01). The sample formed 0.11% of the national population less than 6 years of age and included a sex ratio of 1.01 compared with a national ratio of 1.02. There were no significant differences in the geographical distribution of the sample in comparison with that of the national population. The social composition, assessed by maternal education level, was biased towards a better education level than the national population. Mean Z-scores for height and weight were not significantly different from zero, when calculated on the basis of the national growth standards. In addition to successfully obtaining a representative sample for the analysis of the age of attainment of developmental milestones in Argentinian children, the survey also accomplished an educational objective in the training of paediatricians in developmental paediatrics.

Indication for thresholds of chromosome non-disjunction versus chromosome lagging induced by spindle inhibitors in vitro in human lymphocytes

Risk assessment from exposure to spindle inhibitors should take into account the possibility of threshold concentration-response curves for aneuploidy induction. We analysed concentration-dependent induction of chromosome non-disjunction by well known spindle poisons (colchicine, carbendazim, mebendazole and nocodazole) and a reference clastogen, methyl methanesulphonate (MMS) in vitro in human lymphocytes; and integrated these findings with earlier results of chromosome loss in micronuclei. Chromosome non-disjunction was estimated on cytokinesis-blocked lymphocytes after simultaneous fluorescent in situ hybridization labelling with two chromosome-specific centromeric probes (chromosomes 1 and 17). The frequencies of spontaneous non-disjunction showed important inter-individual variations and were surprisingly high (7.04-15.39%). Lower concentrations of aneugens did not induce a statistically significant increase of non-disjunction frequencies over the respective control levels, whereas higher concentrations clearly induced a concentration-dependent increase in the non-disjunction frequencies with the four aneugens tested. On the contrary, even at high concentrations, MMS induced a slight increase in the frequency of non-disjunction but without being statistically significant when compared with the control frequencies. We estimated the inflection points, the first statistically significant concentrations, the last non-statistically significant concentrations and the number of events from concentration-response curves of chromosome non-disjunction and chromosome loss. A threshold-type of concentration-response for non-disjunction is highly probable for colchicine and nocodazole. For carbendazim and mebendazole the inflection point fell above the first statistically significant concentrations. But since it is obvious from dose-response curves where the inflection point/threshold lies, it appears that the model might be picking up some irregularities (possibly due to experimental variability in the dose-response curve at concentrations greater than the threshold). For accurate estimation of the threshold, analysis of more concentrations or more cells might be needed. Our data strongly indicate that in cultured human lymphocytes chromosome non-disjunction is a major mechanism of aneuploidy induction by spindle inhibitors and since non-disjunction occurs at lower concentration than chromosome loss, the aneuploidy threshold should be estimated on the basis of non-disjunction rather than on micronuclei frequencies (chromosome loss).