Selecting the minimum prediction base of historical data to perform 5-year predictions of the cancer burden: The GoF-optimal method

Projections in Breast and Lung Cancer Mortality among Women: A Bayesian Analysis of 52 Countries Worldwide

Among women, lung cancer mortality rates have surpassed those for breast cancer in several countries. This reflects the breast cancer mortality declines due to access to screening and effective treatment alongside the entrance of certain countries in stages of the tobacco epidemic in which smoking becomes more prevalent in women. In this study, we project lung and breast cancer mortality until 2030 in 52 countries. Cancer mortality data were obtained from the WHO Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), per 100,000, were calculated (direct method) for 2008 to 2014 and projected for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model. In 52 countries studied around the world, between 2015 and 2030, the median ASMR are projected to increase for lung cancer, from 11.2 to 16.0, whereas declines are expected for breast cancer, from 16.1 to 14.7. In the same period, the ASMR will decrease in 36 countries for breast cancer and in 15 countries for lung cancer. In half of the countries analyzed, and in nearly three quarters of those classified as high-income countries, the ASMR for lung cancer has already surpassed or will surpass the breast cancer ASMR before 2030. The mortality for lung and breast cancer is higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries; lung cancer mortality is lower in the latter because the tobacco epidemic is not yet widespread. Due to these observed characteristics of lung cancer, primary prevention should still be a key factor to decrease lung cancer mortality.Significance: The mortality for lung and breast cancer is projected to be higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries, where lung cancer mortality is expected to surpass breast cancer mortality before 2030. Cancer Res; 78(15); 4436-42. ©2018 AACR.

Effects of Connexin43 Overexpression on U251 Cell Growth, Migration, and Apoptosis

Background

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a highly aggressive malignant brain tumor with a high incidence in adults. Connexin43 (Cx43) has general roles in tumorigenesis and is expressed in U251 glioma cells. Accordingly, the effects of Cx43 on the growth, migration, and apoptosis and the underlying mechanisms mediating Cx43-dependent migration and apoptosis were examined in U251 cells.

Material/Methods

A Cx43-overexpressing U251 cell line was generated to analyze the effects of Cx43 overexpression on cell growth, wound healing, and apoptosis-related protein expression after treatment with temozolomide.

Results

The growth rate of U251 cells overexpressing Cx43 was significantly lower than that of parental wild-type cells, and cell morphology was considerably altered. The expression level of Bcl-2 was higher and the expression levels of Bax and caspase-3 were lower in cells overexpressing Cx43 than in wild-type cells. Additionally, the Bax/Bcl-2 ratio decreased.

Conclusions

Cx43 inhibited the growth of U251 cells, promoted morphological changes and migration, and inhibited apoptosis via a mitochondria-associated pathway.

Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020)

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality.

METHODS

The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model.

RESULTS

All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7).

CONCLUSIONS

By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention.