Modelling of healthcare-associated infections: a study on the dynamics of pathogen transmission by using an individual-based approach

A systematic review of the effectiveness of cohorting to reduce transmission of healthcare-associated C. difficile and multidrug-resistant organisms

BACKGROUND

Cohorting of patients and staff is a control strategy often used to prevent the spread of infection in healthcare institutions. However, a comprehensive evaluation of cohorting as a prevention approach is lacking.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of studies that used cohorting as part of an infection control strategy to reduce hospital-acquired infections. We included studies published between 1966 and November 30, 2019, on adult populations hospitalized in acute-care hospitals.

RESULTS

In total, 87 studies met inclusion criteria. Study types were quasi-experimental "before and after" (n = 35), retrospective (n = 49), and prospective (n = 3). Case-control analysis was performed in 7 studies. Cohorting was performed with other infection control strategies in the setting of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, n = 22), Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI, n = 6), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE, n = 17), carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections (CRE, n = 22), A. baumannii (n = 15), and other gram-negative infections (n = 5). Cohorting was performed either simultaneously (56 of 87, 64.4%) or in phases (31 of 87, 35.6%) to help contain transmission. In 60 studies, both patients and staff were cohorted. Most studies (77 of 87, 88.5%) showed a decline in infection or colonization rates after a multifaceted approach that included cohorting as part of the intervention bundle. Hand hygiene compliance improved in approximately half of the studies (8 of 15) during the respective intervention.

CONCLUSION

Cohorting of staff, patients, or both is a frequently used and reasonable component of an enhanced infection control strategy. However, determining the effectiveness of cohorting as a strategy to reduce transmission of MDRO and C. difficile infections is difficult, particularly in endemic situations.

An agent-based model to simulate the transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci according different prevention and control measures

OBJECTIVE

Despite the existence of various levels of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures aimed at limiting the transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) in hospitals, these measures are sometimes difficult to implement. Using an agent-based model (ABM), we simulated the transmission of VRE within and between 3 care units according to different IPC measures.

METHODS

The ABM was modelled on short-stay medical wards, represented by 2 conventional care units and 1 intensive care unit. The scenarios consisted of the simulation of various compliance rates of caregivers with regard to hand hygiene (HH) in different contexts of IPC measures: (1) standard precautions for all patients, (2) additional contact precautions for VRE-carrier patients, (3) geographical cohorting of carrier patients, and (4) creation of an isolation unit with dedicated staff.

RESULTS

With <50% HH compliance, the dissemination of VRE was not adequately controlled. With 80% compliance for all patients (ie, standard precautions scenario), there were no secondary VRE cases in 50% of the simulations, which represented the best scenario. A more realistic rate, 60% HH compliance for all patients, revealed interesting results. Implementing an isolation unit was effective only if the level of HH compliance was low. Patient cohorting was less effective.

CONCLUSIONS

The present ABM showed that while contact precautions, geographic cohorting, and an isolation unit may represent good complements to standard precautions, they may theoretically not be necessary if HH is followed at a high level of compliance.

Simulation models for transmission of health care-associated infection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are a global health burden because of their significant impact on patient health and health care systems. Mechanistic simulation modeling that captures the dynamics between patients, pathogens, and the environment is increasingly being used to improve understanding of epidemiological patterns of HAIs and to facilitate decisions on infection prevention and control (IPC). The purpose of this review is to present a systematic review to establish (1) how simulation models have been used to investigate HAIs and their mitigation and (2) how these models have evolved over time, as well as identify (3) gaps in their adoption and (4) useful directions for their future development.

METHODS

The review involved a systematic search and identification of studies using system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based model to study HAIs.

RESULTS

The complexity of simulation models developed for HAIs significantly increased but heavily concentrated on transmission dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the hospitals of high-income countries. Neither HAIs in other health care settings, the influence of contact networks within a health care facility, nor patient sharing and referring networks across health care settings were sufficiently understood.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides a broader overview of existing simulation models in HAIs to identify the gaps and to direct and facilitate further development of appropriate models in this emerging field.

Systems Modeling Approach for Reducing the Risk of Healthcare-Associated Infections

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a major cause of concern because of the high levels of associated morbidity, mortality, and cost. In addition, children and intensive care unit (ICU) patients are more vulnerable to these infections due to low levels of immunity. Various medical interventions and statistical process control techniques have been suggested to counter the spread of these infections and aid early detection of an infection outbreak. Methods such as hand hygiene help in the prevention of HAIs and are well-documented in the literature. This chapter demonstrates the utilization of a systems methodology to model and validate factors that contribute to the risk of HAIs in a pediatric ICU. It proposes an approach that has three unique aspects: it studies the problem of HAIs as a whole by focusing on several HAIs instead of a single type, it projects the effects of interventions onto the general patient population using the system-level model, and it studies both medical and behavioral interventions and compares their effectiveness. This methodology uses a systems modeling framework that includes simulation, risk analysis, and statistical techniques for studying interventions to reduce the transmission likelihood of HAIs.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Mathematical models of infection transmission in healthcare settings: recent advances from the use of network structured data

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Mathematical modeling approaches have brought important contributions to the study of pathogen spread in healthcare settings over the last 20 years. Here, we conduct a comprehensive systematic review of mathematical models of disease transmission in healthcare settings and assess the application of contact and patient transfer network data over time and their impact on our understanding of transmission dynamics of infections.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently, with the increasing availability of data on the structure of interindividual and interinstitution networks, models incorporating this type of information have been proposed, with the aim of providing more realistic predictions of disease transmission in healthcare settings. Models incorporating realistic data on individual or facility networks often remain limited to a few settings and a few pathogens (mostly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus).

SUMMARY

To respond to the objectives of creating improved infection prevention and control measures and better understanding of healthcare-associated infections transmission dynamics, further innovations in data collection and parameter estimation in modeling is required.

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

Background

Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings.

Results

In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries.

The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data.

Conclusions

Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models.

The Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA): a simulation modeling tool to assist infectious disease control in a health system

OBJECTIVE

As healthcare systems continue to expand and interconnect with each other through patient sharing, administrators, policy makers, infection control specialists, and other decision makers may have to take account of the entire healthcare 'ecosystem' in infection control.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a software tool, the Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst (RHEA), that can accept user-inputted data to rapidly create a detailed agent-based simulation model (ABM) of the healthcare ecosystem (ie, all healthcare facilities, their adjoining community, and patient flow among the facilities) of any region to better understand the spread and control of infectious diseases.

RESULTS

To demonstrate RHEA's capabilities, we fed extensive data from Orange County, California, USA, into RHEA to create an ABM of a healthcare ecosystem and simulate the spread and control of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Various experiments explored the effects of changing different parameters (eg, degree of transmission, length of stay, and bed capacity).

DISCUSSION

Our model emphasizes how individual healthcare facilities are components of integrated and dynamic networks connected via patient movement and how occurrences in one healthcare facility may affect many other healthcare facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

A decision maker can utilize RHEA to generate a detailed ABM of any healthcare system of interest, which in turn can serve as a virtual laboratory to test different policies and interventions.

Impact of antibiotic exposure patterns on selection of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in hospital settings

Community-associated methicillin-resistant S. aureus (CA-MRSA) is increasingly common in hospitals, with potentially serious consequences. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of antibiotic prescription patterns on the selection of CA-MRSA within hospitals, in a context of competition with other circulating staphylococcal strains, including methicillin-sensitive (MSSA) and hospital-associated methicillin-resistant (HA-MRSA) strains. We developed a computerized agent-based model of S. aureus transmission in a hospital ward in which CA-MRSA, MSSA, and HA-MRSA strains may cocirculate. We investigated a wide range of antibiotic prescription patterns in both intensive care units (ICUs) and general wards, and we studied how differences in antibiotic exposure may explain observed variations in the success of CA-MRSA invasion in the hospitals of several European countries and of the United States. Model predictions underlined the influence of antibiotic prescription patterns on CA-MRSA spread in hospitals, especially in the ICU, where the endemic prevalence of CA-MRSA carriage can range from 3% to 20%, depending on the simulated prescription pattern. Large antibiotic exposure with drugs effective against MSSA but not MRSA was found to promote invasion by CA-MRSA. We also found that, should CA-MRSA acquire fluoroquinolone resistance, a major increase in CA-MRSA prevalence could ensue in hospitals worldwide. Controlling the spread of highly community-prevalent CA-MRSA within hospitals is a challenge. This study demonstrates that antibiotic exposure strategies could participate in this control. This is all the more important in wards such as ICUs, which may play the role of incubators, promoting CA-MRSA selection in hospitals.