Benefits of Meeting the Healthy People 2030 Youth Sports Participation Target

INTRODUCTION

Healthy People 2030, a U.S. government health initiative, has indicated that increasing youth sports participation to 63.3% is a priority in the U.S. This study quantified the health and economic value of achieving this target.

METHODS

An agent-based model developed in 2023 represents each person aged 6-17 years in the U.S. On each simulated day, agents can participate in sports that affect their metabolic and mental health in the model. Each agent can develop different physical and mental health outcomes, associated with direct and indirect costs.

RESULTS

Increasing the proportion of youth participating in sports from the most recent participation levels (50.7%) to the Healthy People 2030 target (63.3%) could reduce overweight/obesity prevalence by 3.37% (95% CI=3.35%, 3.39%), resulting in 1.71 million fewer cases of overweight/obesity (95% CI=1.64, 1.77 million). This could avert 352,000 (95% CI=336,200, 367,500) cases of weight-related diseases and gain 1.86 million (95% CI=1.86, 1.87 million) quality-adjusted life years, saving $22.55 billion (95% CI=$22.46, $22.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $25.43 billion (95% CI= $25.25, $25.61 billion) in productivity losses. This would also reduce depression/anxiety symptoms, saving $3.61 billion (95% CI=$3.58, $3.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $28.38 billion (95% CI=$28.20, $28.56 billion) in productivity losses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that achieving the Healthy People 2030 objective could save third-party payers, businesses, and society billions of dollars for each cohort of persons aged 6-17 years, savings that would continue to repeat with each new cohort. This suggests that even if a substantial amount is invested toward this objective, such investments could pay for themselves.

What is the economic benefit of annual COVID-19 vaccination from the adult individual perspective?

BACKGROUND

With COVID-19 vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine.

RESULTS

For an 18-49-year-old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64-year-old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1,278 and $119-$1,706, for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% pre-existing protection against infection (e.g., vaccinated 9 months earlier).

CONCLUSION

There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts.

DESIGN

Agent-based model representing a typical NH.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

NH residents and staff.

METHODS

We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns.

RESULTS

Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.

Health and Economic Value of Eliminating Socioeconomic Disparities in US Youth Physical Activity

Importance

There are considerable socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in youth physical activity (PA) levels. For example, studies show that lower-SES youth are less active, have lower participation in organized sports and physical education classes, and have more limited access to PA equipment.

Objective

To determine the potential public health and economic effects of eliminating disparities in PA levels among US youth SES groups.

Design and Setting

An agent-based model representing all 6- to 17-year-old children in the US was used to simulate the epidemiological, clinical, and economic effects of disparities in PA levels among different SES groups and the effect of reducing these disparities.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Anthropometric measures (eg, body mass index) and the presence and severity of risk factors associated with weight (stroke, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, or cancer), as well as direct and indirect cost savings.

Results

This model, representing all 50 million US children and adolescents 6 to 17 years old, found that if the US eliminates the disparity in youth PA levels across SES groups, absolute overweight and obesity prevalence would decrease by 0.826% (95% CI, 0.821%-0.832%), resulting in approximately 383 000 (95% CI, 368 000-399 000) fewer cases of overweight and obesity and 101 000 (95% CI, 98 000-105 000) fewer cases of weight-related diseases (stroke and coronary heart disease events, type 2 diabetes, or cancer). This would result in more than $15.60 (95% CI, $15.01-$16.10) billion in cost savings over the youth cohort's lifetime. There are meaningful benefits even when reducing the disparity by just 25%, which would result in $1.85 (95% CI, $1.70-$2.00) billion in direct medical costs averted and $2.48 (95% CI, $2.04-$2.92) billion in productivity losses averted. For every 1% in disparity reduction, total productivity losses would decrease by about $83.8 million, and total direct medical costs would decrease by about $68.7 million.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study quantified the potential savings from eliminating or reducing PA disparities, which can help policymakers, health care systems, schools, funders, sports organizations, and other businesses better prioritize investments toward addressing these disparities.

Cost-effectiveness of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and isolation strategies in nursing homes

OBJECTIVE

Nursing home residents may be particularly vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, a question is when and how often nursing homes should test staff for COVID-19 and how this may change as severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolves.

DESIGN

We developed an agent-based model representing a typical nursing home, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to determine the clinical and economic value of various screening and isolation strategies and how it may change under various circumstances.

RESULTS

Under winter 2023-2024 SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant conditions, symptom-based antigen testing averted 4.5 COVID-19 cases compared to no testing, saving $191 in direct medical costs. Testing implementation costs far outweighed these savings, resulting in net costs of $990 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services perspective, $1,545 from the third-party payer perspective, and $57,155 from the societal perspective. Testing did not return sufficient positive health effects to make it cost-effective [$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold], but it exceeded this threshold in ≥59% of simulation trials. Testing remained cost-ineffective when routinely testing staff and varying face mask compliance, vaccine efficacy, and booster coverage. However, all antigen testing strategies became cost-effective (≤$31,906 per QALY) or cost saving (saving ≤$18,372) when the severe outcome risk was ≥3 times higher than that of current omicron variants.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 testing costs outweighed benefits under winter 2023-2024 conditions; however, testing became cost-effective with increasingly severe clinical outcomes. Cost-effectiveness can change as the epidemic evolves because it depends on clinical severity and other intervention use. Thus, nursing home administrators and policy makers should monitor and evaluate viral virulence and other interventions over time.

The Need for Systems Approaches for Precision Communications in Public Health

A major challenge in communicating health-related information is the involvement of multiple complex systems from the creation of the information to the sources and channels of dispersion to the information users themselves. To date, public health communications approaches have often not adequately accounted for the complexities of these systems to the degree necessary to have maximum impact. The virality of COVID-19 misinformation and disinformation has brought to light the need to consider these system complexities more extensively. Unaided, it is difficult for humans to see and fully understand complex systems. Luckily, there are a range of systems approaches and methods, such as systems mapping and systems modeling, that can help better elucidate complex systems. Using these methods to better characterize the various systems involved in communicating public health-related information can lead to the development of more tailored, precise, and proactive communications. Proceeding in an iterative manner to help design, implement, and adjust such communications strategies can increase impact and leave less opportunity for misinformation and disinformation to spread.

The Impact of a Place-Tailored Digital Health App Promoting Exercise Classes on African American Women's Physical Activity and Obesity: Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

The increasing prevalence of smartphone apps to help people find different services raises the question of whether apps to help people find physical activity (PA) locations would help better prevent and control having overweight or obesity.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper is to determine and quantify the potential impact of a digital health intervention for African American women prior to allocating financial resources toward implementation.

METHODS

We developed our Virtual Population Obesity Prevention, agent-based model of Washington, DC, to simulate the impact of a place-tailored digital health app that provides information about free recreation center classes on PA, BMI, and overweight and obesity prevalence among African American women.

RESULTS

When the app is introduced at the beginning of the simulation, with app engagement at 25% (eg, 25% [41,839/167,356] of women aware of the app; 25% [10,460/41,839] of those aware downloading the app; and 25% [2615/10,460] of those who download it receiving regular push notifications), and a 25% (25/100) baseline probability to exercise (eg, without the app), there are no statistically significant increases in PA levels or decreases in BMI or obesity prevalence over 5 years across the population. When 50% (83,678/167,356) of women are aware of the app; 58.23% (48,725/83,678) of those who are aware download it; and 55% (26,799/48,725) of those who download it receive regular push notifications, in line with existing studies on app usage, introducing the app on average increases PA and decreases weight or obesity prevalence, though the changes are not statistically significant. When app engagement increased to 75% (125,517/167,356) of women who were aware, 75% (94,138/125,517) of those who were aware downloading it, and 75% (70,603/94,138) of those who downloaded it opting into the app's push notifications, there were statistically significant changes in PA participation, minutes of PA and obesity prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that a digital health app that helps identify recreation center classes does not result in substantive population-wide health effects at lower levels of app engagement. For the app to result in statistically significant increases in PA and reductions in obesity prevalence over 5 years, there needs to be at least 75% (125,517/167,356) of women aware of the app, 75% (94,138/125,517) of those aware of the app download it, and 75% (70,603/94,138) of those who download it opt into push notifications. Nevertheless, the app cannot fully overcome lack of access to recreation centers; therefore, public health administrators as well as parks and recreation agencies might consider incorporating this type of technology into multilevel interventions that also target the built environment and other social determinants of health.

Cancer systems epidemiology: Overcoming misconceptions and integrating systems approaches into cancer research

Patricia Mabry and coauthors discuss application of systems approaches in cancer research.

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination

BACKGROUND

With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important.

METHODS

We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020-December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage.

RESULTS

When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000-2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.

Modeling Interventions to Reduce the Spread of Multidrug-Resistant Organisms Between Health Care Facilities in a Region

IMPORTANCE

Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) can spread across health care facilities in a region. Because of limited resources, certain interventions can be implemented in only some facilities; thus, decision-makers need to evaluate which interventions may be best to implement.

OBJECTIVE

To identify a group of target facilities and assess which MDRO intervention would be best to implement in the Shared Healthcare Intervention to Eliminate Life-threatening Dissemination of MDROs in Orange County, a large regional public health collaborative in Orange County, California.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An agent-based model of health care facilities was developed in 2016 to simulate the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) for 10 years starting in 2010 and to simulate the use of various MDRO interventions for 3 years starting in 2017. All health care facilities (23 hospitals, 5 long-term acute care hospitals, and 74 nursing homes) serving adult inpatients in Orange County, California, were included, and 42 target facilities were identified via network analyses.

EXPOSURES

Increasing contact precaution effectiveness, increasing interfacility communication about patients' MDRO status, and performing decolonization using antiseptic bathing soap and a nasal product in a specific group of target facilities.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

MRSA and CRE prevalence and number of new carriers (ie, transmission events).

RESULTS

Compared with continuing infection control measures used in Orange County as of 2017, increasing contact precaution effectiveness from 40% to 64% in 42 target facilities yielded relative reductions of 0.8% (range, 0.5%-1.1%) in MRSA prevalence and 2.4% (range, 0.8%-4.6%) in CRE prevalence in health care facilities countywide after 3 years, averting 761 new MRSA transmission events (95% CI, 756-765 events) and 166 new CRE transmission events (95% CI, 158-174 events). Increasing interfacility communication of patients' MDRO status to 80% in these target facilities produced no changes in the prevalence or transmission of MRDOs. Implementing decolonization procedures (clearance probability: 39% in hospitals, 27% in long-term acute care facilities, and 3% in nursing homes) yielded a relative reduction of 23.7% (range, 23.5%-23.9%) in MRSA prevalence, averting 3515 new transmission events (95% CI, 3509-3521 events). Increasing the effectiveness of antiseptic bathing soap to 48% yielded a relative reduction of 39.9% (range, 38.5%-41.5%) in CRE prevalence, averting 1435 new transmission events (95% CI, 1427-1442 events).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study highlight the ways in which modeling can inform design of regional interventions and suggested that decolonization would be the best strategy for the Shared Healthcare Intervention to Eliminate Life-threatening Dissemination of MDROs in Orange County.

Systematic review of the costs for vaccinators to reach vaccination sites: Incremental costs of reaching hard-to-reach populations

INTRODUCTION

Economic evidence on how much it may cost for vaccinators to reach populations is important to plan vaccination programs. Moreover, knowing the incremental costs to reach populations that have traditionally been undervaccinated, especially those hard-to-reach who are facing supply-side barriers to vaccination, is essential to expanding immunization coverage to these populations.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to identify estimates of costs associated with getting vaccinators to all vaccination sites. We searched PubMed and the Immunization Delivery Cost Catalogue (IDCC) in 2019 for the following costs to vaccinators: (1) training costs; (2) labor costs, per diems, and incentives; (3) identification of vaccine beneficiary location; and (4) travel costs. We assessed if any of these costs were specific to populations that are hard-to-reach for vaccination, based on a framework for examining supply-side barriers to vaccination.

RESULTS

We found 19 studies describing average vaccinator training costs at $0.67/person vaccinated or targeted (SD $0.94) and $0.10/dose delivered (SD $0.07). The average cost for vaccinator labor and incentive costs across 29 studies was $2.15/dose (SD $2.08). We identified 13 studies describing intervention costs for a vaccinator to know the location of a beneficiary, with an average cost of $19.69/person (SD $26.65), and six studies describing vaccinator travel costs, with an average cost of $0.07/dose (SD $0.03). Only eight of these studies described hard-to-reach populations for vaccination; two studies examined incremental costs per dose to reach hard-to-reach populations, which were 1.3-2 times higher than the regular costs. The incremental cost to train vaccinators was $0.02/dose, and incremental labor costs for targeting hard-to-reach populations were $0.16-$1.17/dose.

CONCLUSION

Additional comparative costing studies are needed to understand the potential differential costs for vaccinators reaching the vaccination sites that serve hard-to-reach populations. This will help immunization program planners and decision-makers better allocate resources to extend vaccination programs.

Promoting, seeking, and reaching vaccination services: A systematic review of costs to immunization programs, beneficiaries, and caregivers

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the costs to increase vaccination demand among under-vaccinated populations, as well as costs incurred by beneficiaries and caregivers for reaching vaccination sites, is essential to improving vaccination coverage. However, there have not been systematic analyses documenting such costs for beneficiaries and caregivers seeking vaccination.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and the Immunization Delivery Cost Catalogue (IDCC) in 2019 for the costs for beneficiaries and caregivers to 1) seek and know how to access vaccination (i.e., costs to immunization programs for social mobilization and interventions to increase vaccination demand), 2) take time off from work, chores, or school for vaccination (i.e., productivity costs), and 3) travel to vaccination sites. We assessed if these costs were specific to populations that faced other non-cost barriers, based on a framework for defining hard-to-reach and hard-to-vaccinate populations for vaccination.

RESULTS

We found 57 studies describing information, education, and communication (IEC) costs, social mobilization costs, and the costs of interventions to increase vaccination demand, with mean costs per dose at $0.41 (standard deviation (SD) $0.83), $18.86 (SD $50.65) and $28.23 (SD $76.09) in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, respectively. Five studies described productivity losses incurred by beneficiaries and caregivers seeking vaccination ($38.33 per person; SD $14.72; n = 3). We identified six studies on travel costs incurred by beneficiaries and caregivers attending vaccination sites ($11.25 per person; SD $9.54; n = 4). Two studies reported social mobilization costs per dose specific to hard-to-reach populations, which were 2-3.5 times higher than costs for the general population. Eight studies described barriers to vaccination among hard-to-reach populations.

CONCLUSION

Social mobilization/IEC costs are well-characterized, but evidence is limited on costs incurred by beneficiaries and caregivers getting to vaccination sites. Understanding the potential incremental costs for populations facing barriers to reach vaccination sites is essential to improving vaccine program financing and planning.

The Potential Clinical and Economic Value of a Human Papillomavirus Primary Screening Test That Additionally Identifies Genotypes 31, 45, 51, and 52 Individually

BACKGROUND

Although current human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype screening tests identify genotypes 16 and 18 and do not specifically identify other high-risk types, a new extended genotyping test identifies additional individual (31, 45, 51, and 52) and groups (33/58, 35/39/68, and 56/59/66) of high-risk genotypes.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model of the HPV disease course and evaluated the clinical and economic value of HPV primary screening with Onclarity (BD Diagnostics, Franklin Lakes, NJ) capable of extended genotyping in a cohort of women 30 years or older. Women with certain genotypes were later rescreened instead of undergoing immediate colposcopy and varied which genotypes were rescreened, disease progression rate, and test cost.

RESULTS

Assuming 100% compliance with screening, HPV primary screening using current tests resulted in 25,194 invasive procedures and 48 invasive cervical cancer (ICC) cases per 100,000 women. Screening with extended genotyping (100% compliance) and later rescreening women with certain genotypes averted 903 to 3163 invasive procedures and resulted in 0 to 3 more ICC cases compared with current HPV primary screening tests. Extended genotyping was cost-effective ($2298-$7236/quality-adjusted life year) when costing $75 and cost saving (median, $0.3-$1.0 million) when costing $43. When the probabilities of disease progression increased (2-4 times), extended genotyping was not cost-effective because it resulted in more ICC cases and accrued fewer quality-adjusted life years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified the conditions under which extended genotyping was cost-effective and even cost saving compared with current tests. A key driver of cost-effectiveness is the risk of disease progression, which emphasizes the need to better understand such risks in different populations.

The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine

INTRODUCTION

During a pandemic, there are many situations in which the first available vaccines may not have as high effectiveness as vaccines that are still under development or vaccines that are not yet ready for distribution, raising the question of whether it is better to go with what is available now or wait.

METHODS

In 2020, the team developed a computational model that represents the U.S. population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread, and vaccines with different possible efficacies (to prevent infection or to reduce severe disease) and vaccination timings to estimate the clinical and economic value of vaccination.

RESULTS

Except for a limited number of situations, mainly early on in a pandemic and for a vaccine that prevents infection, when an initial vaccine is available, waiting for a vaccine with a higher efficacy results in additional hospitalizations and costs over the course of the pandemic. For example, if a vaccine with a 50% efficacy in preventing infection becomes available when 10% of the population has already been infected, waiting until 40% of the population are infected for a vaccine with 80% efficacy in preventing infection results in 15.6 million additional cases and 1.5 million additional hospitalizations, costing $20.6 billion more in direct medical costs and $12.4 billion more in productivity losses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that there are relatively few situations in which it is worth foregoing the first COVID-19 vaccine available in favor of a vaccine that becomes available later on in the pandemic even if the latter vaccine has a substantially higher efficacy.

How to Choose Target Facilities in a Region to Implement Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Control Measures

BACKGROUND

When trying to control regional spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), decision makers must choose the highest-yield facilities to target for interventions. The question is, with limited resources, how best to choose these facilities.

METHODS

Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst-generated agent-based model of all Chicago metropolitan area inpatient facilities, we simulated the spread of CRE and different ways of choosing facilities to apply a prevention bundle (screening, chlorhexidine gluconate bathing, hand hygiene, geographic separation, and patient registry) to a resource-limited 1686 inpatient beds.

RESULTS

Randomly selecting facilities did not impact prevalence, but averted 620 new carriers and 175 infections, saving $6.3 million in total costs compared to no intervention. Selecting facilities by type (eg, long-term acute care hospitals) yielded a 16.1% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1960 cases and 558 infections, saving $62.4 million more than random selection. Choosing the largest facilities was better than random selection, but not better than by type. Selecting by considering connections to other facilities (ie, highest volume of discharge patients) yielded a 9.5% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1580 cases and 470 infections, and saving $51.6 million more than random selection. Selecting facilities using a combination of these metrics yielded the greatest reduction (19.0% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1840 cases and 554 infections, saving $59.6 million compared with random selection).

CONCLUSIONS

While choosing target facilities based on single metrics (eg, most inpatient beds, most connections to other facilities) achieved better control than randomly choosing facilities, more effective targeting occurred when considering how these and other factors (eg, patient length of stay, care for higher-risk patients) interacted as a system.

The Clinical and Economic Burden of Norovirus Gastroenteritis in the United States

BACKGROUND

Although norovirus outbreaks periodically make headlines, it is unclear how much attention norovirus may receive otherwise. A better understanding of the burden could help determine how to prioritize norovirus prevention and control.

METHODS

We developed a computational simulation model to quantify the clinical and economic burden of norovirus in the United States.

RESULTS

A symptomatic case generated $48 in direct medical costs, $416 in productivity losses ($464 total). The median yearly cost of outbreaks was $7.6 million (range across years, $7.5-$8.2 million) in direct medical costs, and $165.3 million ($161.1-$176.4 million) in productivity losses ($173.5 million total). Sporadic illnesses in the community (incidence, 10-150/1000 population) resulted in 14 118-211 705 hospitalizations, 8.2-122.9 million missed school/work days, $0.2-$2.3 billion in direct medical costs, and $1.4-$20.7 billion in productivity losses ($1.5-$23.1 billion total). The total cost was $10.6 billion based on the current incidence estimate (68.9/1000).

CONCLUSION

Our study quantified norovirus' burden. Of the total burden, sporadic cases constituted >90% (thus, annual burden may vary depending on incidence) and productivity losses represented 89%. More than half the economic burden is in adults ≥45, more than half occurs in winter months, and >90% of outbreak costs are due to person-to-person transmission, offering insights into where and when prevention/control efforts may yield returns.

Potential Clinical and Economic Value of Norovirus Vaccination in the Community Setting

INTRODUCTION

With norovirus vaccine candidates currently under development, now is the time to identify the vaccine characteristics and implementation thresholds at which vaccination becomes cost effective and cost saving in a community setting.

METHODS

In 2020, a norovirus transmission, clinical, and economics computational simulation model representing different U.S. population segments was developed to simulate the spread of norovirus and the potential impact of vaccinating children aged <5 years and older adults (aged ≥65 years).

RESULTS

Compared with no vaccination, vaccinating preschool-aged children averted 8%-72% of symptomatic norovirus cases in a community, whereas vaccinating older adults averted 2%-29% of symptomatic cases (varying with vaccine efficacy [25%-75%] and vaccination coverage [10%-80%]). Vaccination with a 25% vaccine efficacy was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio ≤$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year) when vaccination cost ≤$445 and cost saving at ≤$370 when vaccinating preschool-aged children and ≤$42 and ≤$30, respectively, when vaccinating older adults. With a 50% vaccine efficacy, vaccination was cost effective when it cost ≤$1,190 and cost saving at ≤$930 when vaccinating preschool-aged children and ≤$110 and ≤$64, respectively, when vaccinating older adults. These cost thresholds (cost effective and cost saving, respectively) further increased with a 75% vaccine efficacy to ≤$1,600 and ≤$1,300 for preschool-aged children and ≤$165 and ≤$100 for older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

This study outlines thresholds at which a norovirus vaccine would be cost effective and cost saving in the community when vaccinating children aged <5 years and older adults. Establishing these thresholds can help provide decision makers with targets to consider when developing and implementing a norovirus vaccine.

How Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals Can Play an Important Role in Controlling Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in a Region: A Simulation Modeling Study

Typically, long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) have less experience in and incentives to implementing aggressive infection control for drug-resistant organisms such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) than acute care hospitals. Decision makers need to understand how implementing control measures in LTACHs can impact CRE spread regionwide. Using our Chicago metropolitan region agent-based model to simulate CRE spread and control, we estimated that a prevention bundle in only LTACHs decreased prevalence by a relative 4.6%-17.1%, averted 1,090-2,795 new carriers, 273-722 infections and 37-87 deaths over 3 years and saved $30.5-$69.1 million, compared with no CRE control measures. When LTACHs and intensive care units intervened, prevalence decreased by a relative 21.2%. Adding LTACHs averted an additional 1,995 carriers, 513 infections, and 62 deaths, and saved $47.6 million beyond implementation in intensive care units alone. Thus, LTACHs may be more important than other acute care settings for controlling CRE, and regional efforts to control drug-resistant organisms should start with LTACHs as a centerpiece.

The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R₀) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R₀ 2.0). With R₀ 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Our simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases, varying the proportion of cases treated, average duration of the infectious period, and the reproductive rate. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective, R₀ 2.5). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study suggests that finding ways to reduce the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 could help decrease its spread and impact.

Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention

INTRODUCTION

Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.

METHODS

In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.

RESULTS

Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).

The SHIELD Orange County Project: Multidrug-resistant Organism Prevalence in 21 Nursing Homes and Long-term Acute Care Facilities in Southern California

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) spread between hospitals, nursing homes (NHs), and long-term acute care facilities (LTACs) via patient transfers. The Shared Healthcare Intervention to Eliminate Life-threatening Dissemination of MDROs in Orange County is a regional public health collaborative involving decolonization at 38 healthcare facilities selected based on their high degree of patient sharing. We report baseline MDRO prevalence in 21 NHs/LTACs.

METHODS

A random sample of 50 adults for 21 NHs/LTACs (18 NHs, 3 LTACs) were screened for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus spp. (VRE), extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing organisms (ESBL), and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) using nares, skin (axilla/groin), and peri-rectal swabs. Facility and resident characteristics associated with MDRO carriage were assessed using multivariable models clustering by person and facility.

RESULTS

Prevalence of MDROs was 65% in NHs and 80% in LTACs. The most common MDROs in NHs were MRSA (42%) and ESBL (34%); in LTACs they were VRE (55%) and ESBL (38%). CRE prevalence was higher in facilities that manage ventilated LTAC patients and NH residents (8% vs <1%, P < .001). MDRO status was known for 18% of NH residents and 49% of LTAC patients. MDRO-colonized adults commonly harbored additional MDROs (54% MDRO+ NH residents and 62% MDRO+ LTACs patients). History of MRSA (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7; confidence interval [CI]: 1.2, 2.4; P = .004), VRE (OR = 2.1; CI: 1.2, 3.8; P = .01), ESBL (OR = 1.6; CI: 1.1, 2.3; P = .03), and diabetes (OR = 1.3; CI: 1.0, 1.7; P = .03) were associated with any MDRO carriage.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of NH residents and LTAC patients harbor MDROs. MDRO status is frequently unknown to the facility. The high MDRO prevalence highlights the need for prevention efforts in NHs/LTACs as part of regional efforts to control MDRO spread.

What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?

BACKGROUND

The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals.

METHODS

We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population.

RESULTS

Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0-30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0-31.2 million cases, $1.9-$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1-$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0-50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7-38.6 million cases, $3.3-$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8-$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0-70% to 70% averted 33.6-54.1 million cases, $4.0-$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8-$64.7 billion in productivity losses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors).

The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.

How Efficacious Must a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine be to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic by Itself

BACKGROUND

Given the continuing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing due to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.

METHODS

In 2020, we developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.

RESULTS

Simulation experiments revealed that when vaccine efficacy exceeded 70%, coverage exceeded 60%, and vaccination occurred on day 1, the attack rate dropped to 22% with daily cases not exceeding 3.2 million (reproductive rate, R0, 2.5). When R0 was 3.5, the attack rate dropped to 41% with daily cases not exceeding 14.4 million. Increasing coverage to 75% when vaccination occurred by day 90 resulted in 5% attack rate and daily cases not exceeding 258,029when R0 was 2.5 and a 26% attack rate and maximum daily cases of 22.6 million when R0 was 3.5. When vaccination did not occur until day 180, coverage (i.e., those vaccinated plus those otherwise immune) had to reach 100%. A vaccine with an efficacy between 40% and 70% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that to either prevent or largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing), the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70%.

Knowing More of the Iceberg: How Detecting a Greater Proportion of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Carriers Influences Transmission

BACKGROUND

Clinical testing detects a fraction of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) carriers. Detecting a greater proportion could lead to increased use of infection prevention and control measures but requires resources. Therefore, it is important to understand the impact of detecting increasing proportions of CRE carriers.

METHODS

We used our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst-generated agent-based model of adult inpatient healthcare facilities in Orange County, California, to explore the impact that detecting greater proportions of carriers has on the spread of CRE.

RESULTS

Detecting and placing 1 in 9 carriers on contact precautions increased the prevalence of CRE from 0% to 8.0% countywide over 10 years. Increasing the proportion of detected carriers from 1 in 9 up to 1 in 5 yielded linear reductions in transmission; at proportions >1 in 5, reductions were greater than linear. Transmission reductions did not occur for 1, 4, or 5 years, varying by facility type. With a contact precautions effectiveness of ≤70%, the detection level yielding nonlinear reductions remained unchanged; with an effectiveness of >80%, detecting only 1 in 5 carriers garnered large reductions in the number of new CRE carriers. Trends held when CRE was already present in the region.

CONCLUSION

Although detection of all carriers provided the most benefits for preventing new CRE carriers, if this is not feasible, it may be worthwhile to aim for detecting >1 in 5 carriers.

The potential economic value of a therapeutic Chagas disease vaccine for pregnant women to prevent congenital transmission

BACKGROUND

Currently, there are no solutions to prevent congenital transmission of Chagas disease during pregnancy, which affects 1-40% of pregnant women in Latin America and is associated with a 5% transmission risk. With therapeutic vaccines under development, now is the right time to determine the economic value of such a vaccine to prevent congenital transmission.

METHODS

We developed a computational decision model that represented the clinical outcomes and diagnostic testing strategies for an infant born to a Chagas-positive woman in Mexico and evaluated the impact of vaccination.

RESULTS

Compared to no vaccination, a 25% efficacious vaccine averted 125 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 122-128] congenital cases, 1.9 (95% UI: 1.6-2.2) infant deaths, and 78 (95% UI: 66-91) DALYs per 10,000 infected pregnant women; a 50% efficacious vaccine averted 251 (95% UI: 248-254) cases, 3.8 (95% UI: 3.6-4.2) deaths, and 160 (95% UI: 148-171) DALYs; and a 75% efficacious vaccine averted 376 (95% UI: 374-378) cases, 5.8 (95% UI: 5.5-6.1) deaths, and 238 (95% UI: 227-249) DALYs. A 25% efficacious vaccine was cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <3× Mexico's gross domestic product per capita, <$29,698/DALY averted) when the vaccine cost ≤$240 and ≤$310 and cost-saving when ≤$10 and ≤$80 from the third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. A 50% efficacious vaccine was cost-effective when costing ≤$490 and ≤$615 and cost-saving when ≤$25 and ≤$160, from the third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. A 75% efficacious vaccine was cost-effective when ≤$720 and ≤$930 and cost-saving when ≤$40 and ≤$250 from the third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. Additionally, 13-42 fewer infants progressed to chronic disease, saving $0.41-$1.21 million to society.

CONCLUSION

We delineated the thresholds at which therapeutic vaccination of Chagas-positive pregnant women would be cost-effective and cost-saving, providing economic guidance for decision-makers to consider when developing and bringing such a vaccine to market.

The Potential Economic Value of a Zika Vaccine for a Woman of Childbearing Age

INTRODUCTION

With Zika vaccine candidates under development and women of childbearing age being the primary target population, now is the time to map the vaccine (e.g., efficacy and duration of protection) and vaccination (e.g., cost) characteristic thresholds at which vaccination becomes cost effective, highly cost effective, and cost saving.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed (to represent 2019 circumstances, US$ and INT$, Region of the Americas) to simulate a woman of childbearing age and the potential risk and clinical course of a Zika infection.

RESULTS

Compared with no vaccination, vaccination was cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: US$1,254-$82,900/disability-adjusted life years averted) when the risk of infection was ≥0.05%-0.08% (varying with country income), vaccine efficacy was ≥25%, and vaccination cost was US$1-$7,500 (INT$5-$10,000 depending on country income level). Vaccination was dominant (i.e., saved costs and provided beneficial health effects) when the infection risk was ≥0.1% for a vaccine efficacy ≥75% and when the infection risk was ≥0.5% for a vaccine efficacy ≥25%, for scenarios where vaccination conferred a 1-year duration of protection and cost ≤$200. In some cases, the vaccine was cost effective when the risk was as low as 0.015%, the cost was as high as $7,500 (INT$10,000), the efficacy was as low as 25%, and the duration of protection was 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

The thresholds at which vaccination becomes cost effective and cost saving can provide targets for Zika vaccine development and implementation.

How Introducing a Registry With Automated Alerts for Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) May Help Control CRE Spread in a Region

BACKGROUND

Regions are considering the use of electronic registries to track patients who carry antibiotic-resistant bacteria, including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Implementing such a registry can be challenging and requires time, effort, and resources; therefore, there is a need to better understand the potential impact.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model of all inpatient healthcare facilities (90 acute care hospitals, 9 long-term acute care hospitals, 351 skilled nursing facilities, and 12 ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities) in the Chicago metropolitan area, surrounding communities, and patient flow using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst software platform. Scenarios explored the impact of a registry that tracked patients carrying CRE to help guide infection prevention and control.

RESULTS

When all Illinois facilities participated (n = 402), the registry reduced the number of new carriers by 11.7% and CRE prevalence by 7.6% over a 3-year period. When 75% of the largest Illinois facilities participated (n = 304), registry use resulted in a 11.6% relative reduction in new carriers (16.9% and 1.2% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 5.0% relative reduction in prevalence. When 50% participated (n = 201), there were 10.7% and 5.6% relative reductions in incident carriers and prevalence, respectively. When 25% participated (n = 101), there was a 9.1% relative reduction in incident carriers (20.4% and 1.6% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 2.8% relative reduction in prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing an extensively drug-resistant organism registry reduced CRE spread, even when only 25% of the largest Illinois facilities participated due to patient sharing. Nonparticipating facilities garnered benefits, with reductions in new carriers.

Complementary Paths to Chagas Disease Elimination: The Impact of Combining Vector Control With Etiological Treatment

Background

The World Health Organization’s 2020 goals for Chagas disease are (1) interrupting vector-borne intradomiciliary transmission and (2) having all infected people under care in endemic countries. Insecticide spraying has proved efficacious for reaching the first goal, but active transmission remains in several regions. For the second, treatment has mostly been restricted to recently infected patients, who comprise only a small proportion of all infected individuals.

Methods

We extended our previous dynamic transmission model to simulate a domestic Chagas disease transmission cycle and examined the effects of both vector control and etiological treatment on achieving the operational criterion proposed by the Pan American Health Organization for intradomiciliary, vectorial transmission interruption (ie, <2% seroprevalence in children <5 years of age).

Results

Depending on endemicity, an antivectorial intervention that decreases vector density by 90% annually would achieve the transmission interruption criterion in 2–3 years (low endemicity) to >30 years (high endemicity). When this strategy is combined with annual etiological treatment in 10% of the infected human population, the seroprevalence criterion would be achieved, respectively, in 1 and 11 years.

Conclusions

Combining highly effective vector control with etiological (trypanocidal) treatment in humans would substantially reduce time to transmission interruption as well as infection incidence and prevalence. However, the success of vector control may depend on prevailing vector species. It will be crucial to improve the coverage of screening programs, the performance of diagnostic tests, the proportion of people treated, and the efficacy of trypanocidal drugs. While screening and access can be incremented as part of strengthening the health systems response, improving diagnostics performance and drug efficacy will require further research.

893. The SHIELD Orange County Project: A Decolonization Strategy in 35 Hospitals and Nursing Homes Reduces Multi-Drug-Resistant Organism (MDRO) Prevalence in a Southern California Region

Background

Patient movement between hospitals, nursing homes (NH), and long-term acute care facilities (LTACs) contributes to MDRO spread. SHIELD OC is a regional decolonization collaborative among adult facilities with high patient sharing designed to reduce countywide MDRO prevalence. We report pre- and post-intervention MDRO colonization prevalence.

Methods

Decolonization included chlorhexidine bath (CHG) (4% liquid or 2% cloth) and twice-daily nasal swab 10% povidone–iodine (PI). LTAC and NH used CHG for all baths and PI 5 days on admission and Monday–Friday every other week. Patients in contact precautions (CP) at hospitals had daily CHG and 5-days PI on admission. Point-prevalence screening for MRSA, VRE, ESBL, and CRE using nares, axilla/groin, and peri-rectal swabs was conducted pre-intervention (September 2016–March 2017) and post-intervention (August 2018–April 2019); 50 random LTAC and 50 CP hospitalized patients were sampled; for NH up to 50 were sampled at baseline and all residents post-intervention. Raw impact of the intervention was assessed by the average change in colonization prevalence, with each facility carrying equal weight. Generalized linear mixed models (GLM) stratified by facility type were used to assess the impact on MDRO colonization when clustering by facility.

Results

Across 35 facilities (16 hospitals, 16 NHs, 3 LTACs), the overall MDRO prevalence was reduced 22% in NHs (OR 0.58, P < 0.001), 34% LTACs (OR = 0.27, P < 0.001), and 11% CP patients (OR = 0.67, P < 0.001, Table 1). For MRSA, raw reductions were 31% NHs (OR = 0.58, P < 0.001), 39% LTACs (OR = 0.51, P = 0.01), and 3% CP patients (OR = 0.88, P = NS). For VRE, raw reductions were 40% NHs (OR = 0.62, P = 0.001), 55% LTACs (OR = 0.26, P < 0.001), and 15% CP patients (OR = 0.67, P = 0.004). For ESBLs, raw reductions were 24% NHs (OR = 0.65, P < 0.001), 34% LTACs (OR = 0.53, P = 0.01), and 26% CP patients (OR = 0.64, P < 0.001). For CRE, raw reductions were 24% NHs (OR = 0.70, P = NS), and 23% LTACs (OR = 0.75, P = NS). CRE increased by 26% in CP averaged across hospitals, although patient -level CRE declined 2.4% to 1.8% (OR = 0.74, P = NS).

Conclusion

MDRO carriage was common in highly inter-connected NHs, LTACs and hospitals. A regional collaborative of universal decolonization in long-term care and targeted decolonization of CP patients in hospitals led to sizeable reductions in MDRO carriage.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

What Is the Value of Different Zika Vaccination Strategies to Prevent and Mitigate Zika Outbreaks?

BACKGROUND

While the 2015-2016 Zika epidemics prompted accelerated vaccine development, decision makers need to know the potential economic value of vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We developed models of Honduras, Brazil, and Puerto Rico, simulated targeting different populations for Zika vaccination (women of childbearing age, school-aged children, young adults, and everyone) and then introduced various Zika outbreaks. Sensitivity analyses varied vaccine characteristics.

RESULTS

With a 2% attack rate ($5 vaccination), compared to no vaccination, vaccinating women of childbearing age cost $314-$1664 per case averted ($790-$4221/disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] averted) in Honduras, and saved $847-$1644/case averted in Brazil, and $3648-$4177/case averted in Puerto Rico, varying with vaccination coverage and efficacy (societal perspective). Vaccinating school-aged children cost $718-$1849/case averted (≤$5002/DALY averted) in Honduras, saved $819-$1609/case averted in Brazil, and saved $3823-$4360/case averted in Puerto Rico. Vaccinating young adults cost $310-$1666/case averted ($731-$4017/DALY averted) in Honduras, saved $953-$1703/case averted in Brazil, and saved $3857-$4372/case averted in Puerto Rico. Vaccinating everyone averted more cases but cost more, decreasing cost savings per case averted. Vaccination resulted in more cost savings and better outcomes at higher attack rates.

CONCLUSIONS

When considering transmission, while vaccinating everyone naturally averted the most cases, specifically targeting women of childbearing age or young adults was the most cost-effective.

Economic value of a therapeutic Chagas vaccine for indeterminate and Chagasic cardiomyopathy patients

BACKGROUND

Therapeutic vaccines to prevent Chagas disease progression to cardiomyopathy are under development because the only available medications (benznidazole and nifurtimox) are limited by their efficacy, long treatment course, and side effects. Better understanding the potential clinical and economic value of such vaccines can help guide development and implementation.

METHODS

We developed a computational Chagas Markov model to evaluate the clinical and economic value of a therapeutic vaccine given in conjunction with benznidazole in indeterminate and chronic Chagas patients. Scenarios explored the vaccine's impact on reducing drug treatment dosage, duration, and adverse events, and risk of disease progression.

RESULTS

When administering standard-of-care benznidazole to 1000 indeterminate patients, 148 discontinued treatment and 219 progressed to chronic disease, resulting in 119 Chagas-related deaths and 2293 DALYs, costing $18.9 million in lifetime societal costs. Compared to benznidazole-only, therapeutic vaccination administered with benznidazole (25-75% reduction in standard dose and duration), resulted in 37-111 more patients (of 1000) completing treatment, preventing 11-219 patients from progressing, 6-120 deaths, and 108-2229 DALYs (5-100% progression risk reduction), saving ≤$16,171 per patient. When vaccinating determinate Kuschnir class 1 Chagas patients, 10-197 fewer patients further progressed compared to benznidazole-only, averting 11-228 deaths and 144-3037 DALYs (5-100% progression risk reduction), saving ≤$34,059 per person. When vaccinating Kuschnir class 2 patients, 13-279 fewer progressed (279 with benznidazole-only), averting 13-692 deaths and 283-10,785 DALYs (5-100% progression risk reduction), saving ≤$89,759. Therapeutic vaccination was dominant (saved costs and provided health benefits) with ≥ 5% progression risk reduction, except when only reducing drug treatment regimen and adverse events, but remained cost-effective when costing <$200.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study helps outline the thresholds at which a therapeutic Chagas vaccine may be cost-effective (e.g., <5% reduction in preventing cardiac progression, 25% reduction in benznidazole treatment doses and duration) and cost-saving (e.g., ≥5% and 25%, respectively).

Economic value of vaccinating geographically hard-to-reach populations with measles vaccine: A modeling application in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Since special efforts are necessary to vaccinate people living far from fixed vaccination posts, decision makers are interested in knowing the economic value of such efforts.

METHODS

Using our immunization geospatial information system platform and a measles compartment model, we quantified the health and economic value of a 2-dose measles immunization outreach strategy for children <24 months of age in Kenya who are geographically hard-to-reach (i.e., those living outside a specified catchment radius from fixed vaccination posts, which served as a proxy for access to services).

FINDINGS

When geographically hard-to-reach children were not vaccinated, there were 1427 total measles cases from 2016 to 2020, resulting in $9.5 million ($3.1-$18.1 million) in direct medical costs and productivity losses and 7504 (3338-12,903) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The outreach strategy cost $76 ($23-$142)/DALY averted (compared to no outreach) when 25% of geographically hard-to-reach children received MCV1, $122 ($40-$226)/DALY averted when 50% received MCV1, and $274 ($123-$478)/DALY averted when 100% received MCV1.

CONCLUSION

Outreach vaccination among geographically hard-to-reach populations was highly cost-effective in a wide variety of scenarios, offering support for investment in an effective outreach vaccination strategy.

The economic value of identifying and treating Chagas disease patients earlier and the impact on Trypanosoma cruzi transmission

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization's 2020 Goals for Chagas disease include access to antiparasitic treatment and care of all infected/ill patients. Policy makers need to know the economic value of identifying and treating patients earlier. However, the economic value of earlier treatment to cure and prevent the Chagas' spread remains unknown.

METHODS

We expanded our existing Chagas disease transmission model to include identification and treatment of Chagas disease patients. We linked this to a clinical and economic model that translated chronic Chagas disease cases into health and economic outcomes. We evaluated the impact and economic outcomes (costs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit) of identifying and treating different percentages of patients in the acute and indeterminate disease states in a 2,000-person village in Yucatan, Mexico.

RESULTS

In the absence of early treatment, 50 acute and 22 new chronic cases occurred over 50 years. Identifying and treating patients in the acute stage averted 0.5-5.4 acute cases, 0.6-5.5 chronic cases, and 0.6-10.8 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), saving $694-$7,419 and $6,976-$79,950 from the third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. Treating in the indeterminate stage averted 2.2-4.9 acute cases, 6.1-12.8 chronic cases, and 11.7-31.1 DALYs, saving $7,666-$21,938 from the third-party payer perspective and $90,530-$243,068 from the societal perspective. Treating patients in both stages averted ≤9 acute cases and ≤15 chronic cases. Identifying and treating patients early was always economically dominant compared to no treatment. Identifying and treating patients earlier resulted in a cumulative cost-benefit of $7,273-$224,981 at the current cost of identification and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Even when identifying and treating as little as 5% of cases annually, treating Chagas cases in the acute and indeterminate stages reduces transmission and provides economic and health benefits. This supports the need for improved diagnostics and access to safe and effective treatment.

Epidemiologic and economic impact of pharmacies as vaccination locations during an influenza epidemic

Introduction:

During an influenza epidemic, where early vaccination is crucial, pharmacies may be a resource to increase vaccine distribution reach and capacity.

Methods:

We utilized an agent-based model of the US and a clinical and economics outcomes model to simulate the impact of different influenza epidemics and the impact of utilizing pharmacies in addition to traditional (hospitals, clinic/physician offices, and urgent care centers) locations for vaccination for the year 2017.

Results:

For an epidemic with a reproductive rate (R0) of 1.30, adding pharmacies with typical business hours averted 11.9 million symptomatic influenza cases, 23,577 to 94,307 deaths, $1.0 billion in direct (vaccine administration and healthcare) costs, $4.2–44.4 billion in productivity losses, and $5.2–45.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Increasing the epidemic severity (R0 of 1.63), averted 16.0 million symptomatic influenza cases, 35,407 to 141,625 deaths, $1.9 billion in direct costs, $6.0–65.5 billion in productivity losses, and $7.8–67.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Extending pharmacy hours averted up to 16.5 million symptomatic influenza cases, 145,278 deaths, $1.9 billion direct costs, $4.1 billion in productivity loss, and $69.5 billion in overall costs. Adding pharmacies resulted in a cost-benefit of $4.1 to $11.5 billion, varying epidemic severity, mortality rate, pharmacy hours, location vaccination rate, and delay in the availability of the vaccine.

Conclusions:

Administering vaccines through pharmacies in addition to traditional locations in the event of an epidemic can increase vaccination coverage, mitigating up to 23.7 million symptomatic influenza cases, providing cost-savings up to $2.8 billion to third-party payers and $99.8 billion to society. Pharmacies should be considered as points of dispensing epidemic vaccines in addition to traditional settings as soon as vaccines become available.

Comparison and validation of two computational models of Chagas disease: A thirty year perspective from Venezuela

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models can help aid public health responses to Chagas disease. Models are typically developed to fulfill a particular need, and comparing outputs from different models addressing the same question can help identify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in answering particular questions, such as those for achieving the 2020 goals for Chagas disease.

METHODS

Using two separately developed models (PHICOR/CIDMA model and Princeton model), we simulated dynamics for domestic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi). We compared how well the models targeted the last 9 years and last 19 years of the 1968-1998 historical seroprevalence data from Venezuela.

RESULTS

Both models were able to generate the T. cruzi seroprevalence for the next time period within reason to the historical data. The PHICOR/CIDMA model estimates of the total population seroprevalence more closely followed the trends seen in the historic data, while the Princeton model estimates of the age-specific seroprevalence more closely followed historic trends when simulating over 9 years. Additionally, results from both models overestimated T. cruzi seroprevalence among younger age groups, while underestimating the seroprevalence of T. cruzi in older age groups.

CONCLUSION

The PHICOR/CIDMA and Princeton models differ in level of detail and included features, yet both were able to generate the historical changes in T. cruzi seroprevalence in Venezuela over 9 and 19-year time periods. Our model comparison has demonstrated that different model structures can be useful in evaluating disease transmission dynamics and intervention strategies.

Modeling The Economic And Health Impact Of Increasing Children's Physical Activity In The United States

Increasing physical activity among children is a potentially important public health intervention. Quantifying the economic and health effects of the intervention would help decision makers understand its impact and priority. Using a computational simulation model that we developed to represent all US children ages 8-11 years, we estimated that maintaining the current physical activity levels (only 31.9 percent of children get twenty-five minutes of high-calorie-burning physical activity three times a week) would result each year in a net present value of $1.1 trillion in direct medical costs and $1.7 trillion in lost productivity over the course of their lifetimes. If 50 percent of children would exercise, the number of obese and overweight youth would decrease by 4.18 percent, averting $8.1 billion in direct medical costs and $13.8 billion in lost productivity. Increasing the proportion of children who exercised to 75 percent would avert $16.6 billion and $23.6 billion, respectively.

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak

OBJECTIVES

Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances.

METHODS

We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases.

RESULTS

We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Are the London Declaration's 2020 goals sufficient to control Chagas disease?: Modeling scenarios for the Yucatan Peninsula

BACKGROUND

The 2020 Sustainable Development goals call for 100% certified interruption or control of the three main forms of Chagas disease transmission in Latin America. However, how much will achieving these goals to varying degrees control Chagas disease; what is the potential impact of missing these goals and if they are achieved, what may be left?

METHODS

We developed a compartmental simulation model that represents the triatomine, human host, and non-human host populations and vector-borne, congenital, and transfusional T. cruzi transmission between them in the domestic and peridomestic settings to evaluate the impact of limiting transmission in a 2,000 person virtual village in Yucatan, Mexico.

RESULTS

Interruption of domestic vectorial transmission had the largest impact on T. cruzi transmission and prevalence in all populations. Most of the gains were achieved within the first few years. Controlling vectorial transmission resulted in a 46.1-83.0% relative reduction in the number of new acute Chagas cases for a 50-100% interruption in domestic vector-host contact. Only controlling congenital transmission led to a 2.4-8.1% (30-100% interruption) relative reduction in the total number of new acute cases and reducing only transfusional transmission led to a 0.1-0.3% (30-100% reduction). Stopping all three forms of transmission resulted in 0.5 total transmission events over five years (compared to 5.0 with no interruption); interrupting all forms by 30% resulted in 3.4 events over five years per 2,000 persons.

CONCLUSIONS

While reducing domestic vectorial, congenital, and transfusional transmission can successfully reduce transmission to humans (up to 82% in one year), achieving the 2020 goals would still result in 0.5 new acute cases per 2,000 over five years. Even if the goals are missed, major gains can be achieved within the first few years. Interrupting transmission should be combined with other efforts such as a vaccine or improved access to care, especially for the population of already infected individuals.

The Additional Costs and Health Effects of a Patient Having Overweight or Obesity: A Computational Model

OBJECTIVE

This paper estimates specific additional disease outcomes and costs that could be prevented by helping a patient go from an obesity or overweight category to a normal weight category at different ages. This information could help physicians, other health care workers, patients, and third-party payers determine how to prioritize weight reduction.

METHODS

A computational Markov model was developed that represented the BMI status, chronic health states, health outcomes, and associated costs (from various perspectives) for an adult at different age points throughout his or her lifetime.

RESULTS

Incremental costs were calculated for adult patients with obesity or overweight (vs. normal weight) at different starting ages. For example, for a metabolically healthy 20-year-old, having obesity (vs. normal weight) added lifetime third-party payer costs averaging $14,059 (95% range: $13,956-$14,163), productivity losses of $14,141 ($13,969-$14,312), and total societal costs of $28,020 ($27,751-$28,289); having overweight vs. normal weight added $5,055 ($4,967-$5,144), $5,358 ($5,199-$5,518), and $10,365 ($10,140-$10,590). For a metabolically healthy 50-year-old, having obesity added $15,925 ($15,831-$16,020), $20,120 ($19,887-$20,352), and $36,278 ($35,977-$36,579); having overweight added $5,866 ($5,779-$5,953), $10,205 ($9,980-$10,429), and $16,169 ($15,899-$16,438).

CONCLUSIONS

Incremental lifetime costs of a patient with obesity or overweight (vs. normal weight) increased with the patient's age, peaked at age 50, and decreased with older ages. However, weight reduction even in older adults still yielded incremental cost savings.

The CDC SHIELD Orange County Project – Baseline Multi Drug-Resistant Organism (MDRO) Prevalence in a Southern California Region

Background

MDROs can spread between hospitals, nursing homes (NH), and long-term acute care facilities (LTACs) via shared patients. SHIELD OC is a regional decolonization collaborative involving 38 of 104 countywide adult facilities identified by their high degree of direct and indirect patient sharing with one another. We report baseline MDRO prevalence in these facilities.

Methods

Adult patients in 38 facilities (17 hospitals, 18 NHs, 3 LTACs) underwent point-prevalence screening between September 2016–April 2017 for MRSA, VRE, ESBL, and CRE using nares, skin (axilla/groin), and peri-rectal swabs. In NHs and LTACs, residents were randomly selected until 50 sets of swabs were obtained. Swabbing in hospitals involved all patients in contact precautions. An additional set of swabs were also performed for all LTAC admissions from November 2016–February 2017.

Results

The overall prevalence of any MDRO among patients was 64% (44%–88%) in NHs, 80% (range 72%–86%) in LTACs, and 64% (54–84%) in hospitals (contact precaution patients) (Table 1). Only 25%, 64%, and 81% of patients were already known to harbor an MDRO in NHs, LTACs, and hospitals, respectively. Known MDRO patients also harbored another MDRO 49%, 63%, and 34% of the time for NHs, LTACs, and hospitals, respectively. In LTACs, MDRO point prevalence was 38% higher than the usual admission prevalence (65% higher for MRSA, 34% higher for VRE, 95% higher for ESBL, and 50% higher for CRE).

Conclusion

MDRO carriage in highly inter-connected NHs and LTACs was widespread, rivaling that found in hospitalized patients on contact precautions. MRSA, VRE, and ESBL carriage far outnumbered CRE carriage. A history of MDRO was insensitive for identifying MDRO carriers, and many patients carried multiple MDROs. The extensive MDRO burden and transmission in long-term care settings suggests that regional MDRO prevention efforts must include MDRO control in long-term care facilities.

Disclosures

R. D. Singh, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; J. A. McKinnell, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; L. G. Miller, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; K. Kleinman, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; L. Heim, Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; T. D. Dutciuc, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; M. Estevez, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; G. Gussin, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; L’Oreal: Consultant, Consulting fee; J. Chang, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; E. M. Peterson, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; B. Y. Lee, GSK: Consultant, Consulting fee; R. A. Weinstein, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; OpGen Company: Study support, Provided services at no charge; M. K. Hayden, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Sage is contributing product to healthcare facilities participating in a regional collaborative on which I am a co-investigator. Neither I nor my hospital receive product.; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Research support; CDC: Grant Investigator and Receipt of contributed product, Research grant; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; OpGen Company: Study support, Provided services at no charge for studies; S. K. Gohil, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; S. Park, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; S. Tam, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; R. Saavedra, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; S. Yamaguchi, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; H. Custodio, Xttrium Laboratories: Study coordination, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Sage Products: Study coordination, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Study coordination, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; J. Nguyen, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; T. Tjoa, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; J. He, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; M. H. Coady, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; R. Platt, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting clinical studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting clinical studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting clinical studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product; receive research funds from Clorox, but Clorox has no role in the design; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in healthcare facilities that are receiving contributed product; S. S. Huang, Sage Products: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product (no contribution in submitted abstract), Participating healthcare facilities in my studies received contributed product; Xttrium Laboratories: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product (no contribution in submitted abstract), Participating healthcare facilities in my studies received contributed product; Clorox: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product (no contribution in submitted abstract), Participating healthcare facilities in my studies received contributed product; 3M: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product (no contribution in submitted abstract), Participating healthcare facilities in my studies received contributed product; Molnlycke: Receipt of contributed product, Conducting studies in which participating healthcare facilities are receiving contributed product (no contribution in submitted abstract), Participating healthcare facilities in my studies received contributed product

A systems approach to obesity

Obesity has become a truly global epidemic, affecting all age groups, all populations, and countries of all income levels. To date, existing policies and interventions have not reversed these trends, suggesting that innovative approaches are needed to transform obesity prevention and control. There are a number of indications that the obesity epidemic is a systems problem, as opposed to a simple problem with a linear cause-and-effect relationship. What may be needed to successfully address obesity is an approach that considers the entire system when making any important decision, observation, or change. A systems approach to obesity prevention and control has many benefits, including the potential to further understand indirect effects or to test policies virtually before implementing them in the real world. Discussed here are 5 key efforts to implement a systems approach for obesity prevention: 1) utilize more global approaches; 2) bring new experts from disciplines that do not traditionally work with obesity to share experiences and ideas with obesity experts; 3) utilize systems methods, such as systems mapping and modeling; 4) modify and combine traditional approaches to achieve a stronger systems orientation; and 5) bridge existing gaps between research, education, policy, and action. This article also provides an example of how a systems approach has been used to convene a multidisciplinary team and conduct systems mapping and modeling as part of an obesity prevention program in Baltimore, Maryland.

The Economic Value of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying Implementation in Mozambique

Malaria-endemic countries have to decide how much of their limited resources for vector control to allocate toward implementing long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) versus indoor residual spraying (IRS). To help the Mozambique Ministry of Health use an evidence-based approach to determine funding allocation toward various malaria control strategies, the Global Fund convened the Mozambique Modeling Working Group which then used JANUS, a software platform that includes integrated computational economic, operational, and clinical outcome models that can link with different transmission models (in this case, OpenMalaria) to determine the economic value of vector control strategies. Any increase in LLINs (from 80% baseline coverage) or IRS (from 80% baseline coverage) would be cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ≤ $114/disability-adjusted life year averted). However, LLIN coverage increases tend to be more cost-effective than similar IRS coverage increases, except where both pyrethroid resistance is high and LLIN usage is low. In high-transmission northern regions, increasing LLIN coverage would be more cost-effective than increasing IRS coverage. In medium-transmission central regions, changing from LLINs to IRS would be more costly and less effective. In low-transmission southern regions, LLINs were more costly and less effective than IRS, due to low LLIN usage. In regions where LLINs are more cost-effective than IRS, it is worth considering prioritizing LLIN coverage and use. However, IRS may have an important role in insecticide resistance management and epidemic control. Malaria intervention campaigns are not a one-size-fits-all solution, and tailored approaches are necessary to account for the heterogeneity of malaria epidemiology.

How to determine if a model is right for neglected tropical disease decision making

Mathematical and computational modeling can transform decision making for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) if the right model is used for the right question. Modeling can help better understand and address the complex systems involved in making decisions for NTD prevention and control. However, all models, modelers, and modeling are not the same. Thus, decision makers need to better understand if a particular model actually fits their needs. Here are a series of questions that a decision maker can ask when determining whether a model is right for him or her.

Potential economic burden of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) in the United States

OBJECTIVES

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) an urgent public health threat; however, its economic burden is unknown.

METHODS

We developed a CRE clinical and economics outcomes model to determine the cost of CRE infection from the hospital, third-party payer, and societal, perspectives and to evaluate the health and economic burden of CRE to the USA.

RESULTS

Depending on the infection type, the median cost of a single CRE infection can range from $22 484 to $66 031 for hospitals, $10 440 to $31 621 for third-party payers, and $37 778 to $83 512 for society. An infection incidence of 2.93 per 100 000 population in the USA (9418 infections) would cost hospitals $275 million (95% CR $217-334 million), third-party payers $147 million (95% CR $129-172 million), and society $553 million (95% CR $303-1593 million) with a 25% attributable mortality, and would result in the loss of 8841 (95% CR 5805-12 420) quality-adjusted life years. An incidence of 15 per 100 000 (48 213 infections) would cost hospitals $1.4 billion (95% CR $1.1-1.7 billion), third-party payers $0.8 billion (95% CR $0.6-0.8 billion), and society $2.8 billion (95% CR $1.6-8.2 billion), and result in the loss of 45 261 quality-adjusted life years.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of CRE is higher than the annual cost of many chronic diseases and of many acute diseases. Costs rise proportionally with the incidence of CRE, increasing by 2.0 times, 3.4 times, and 5.1 times for incidence rates of 6, 10, and 15 per 100 000 persons.

The Global Economic and Health Burden of Human Hookworm Infection

BACKGROUND

Even though human hookworm infection is highly endemic in many countries throughout the world, its global economic and health impact is not well known. Without a better understanding of hookworm's economic burden worldwide, it is difficult for decision makers such as funders, policy makers, disease control officials, and intervention manufacturers to determine how much time, energy, and resources to invest in hookworm control.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic and health burden of hookworm infection in every country, WHO region, and globally, in 2016 from the societal perspective. Globally, hookworm infection resulted in a total 2,126,280 DALYs using 2004 disability weight estimates and 4,087,803 DALYs using 2010 disability weight estimates (excluding cognitive impairment outcomes). Including cognitive impairment did not significantly increase DALYs worldwide. Total productivity losses varied with the probability of anemia and calculation method used, ranging from $7.5 billion to $138.9 billion annually using gross national income per capita as a proxy for annual wages and ranging from $2.5 billion to $43.9 billion using minimum wage as a proxy for annual wages.

CONCLUSION

Even though hookworm is classified as a neglected tropical disease, its economic and health burden exceeded published estimates for a number of diseases that have received comparatively more attention than hookworm such as rotavirus. Additionally, certain large countries that are transitioning to higher income countries such as Brazil and China, still face considerable hookworm burden.

An Economic Model: Value of Antimicrobial-Coated Sutures to Society, Hospitals, and Third-Party Payers in Preventing Abdominal Surgical Site Infections

Background

While the persistence of high surgical site infection (SSI) rates has prompted the advent of more expensive sutures that are coated with antimicrobial agents to prevent SSIs, the economic value of such sutures has yet to be determined.

Methods

Using TreeAge Pro, we developed a decision analytic model to determine the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial sutures in abdominal incisions from the hospital, third-party payer, and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses systematically varied the risk of developing an SSI (range, 5%–20%), the cost of triclosan-coated sutures (range, $5–$25/inch), and triclosan-coated suture efficacy in preventing infection (range, 5%–50%) to highlight the range of costs associated with using such sutures.

Results

Triclosan-coated sutures saved $4,109–$13,975 (hospital perspective), $4,133–$14,297 (third-party payer perspective), and $40,127–$53,244 (societal perspective) per SSI prevented, when a surgery had a 15% SSI risk, depending on their efficacy. If the SSI risk was no more than 5% and the efficacy in preventing SSIs was no more than 10%, triclosan-coated sutures resulted in extra expenditure for hospitals and third-party payers (resulting in extra costs of $1,626 and $1,071 per SSI prevented for hospitals and third-party payers, respectively; SSI risk, 5%; efficacy, 10%).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that switching to triclosan-coated sutures from the uncoated sutures can both prevent SSIs and save substantial costs for hospitals, third-party payers, and society, as long as efficacy in preventing SSIs is at least 10% and SSI risk is at least 10%.

Global Economic Burden of Norovirus Gastroenteritis

Background

Despite accounting for approximately one fifth of all acute gastroenteritis illnesses, norovirus has received comparatively less attention than other infectious pathogens. With several candidate vaccines under development, characterizing the global economic burden of norovirus could help funders, policy makers, public health officials, and product developers determine how much attention and resources to allocate to advancing these technologies to prevent and control norovirus.

Methods

We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic burden of norovirus in every country/area (233 total) stratified by WHO region and globally, from the health system and societal perspectives. We considered direct costs of illness (e.g., clinic visits and hospitalization) and productivity losses.

Results

Globally, norovirus resulted in a total of $4.2 billion (95% UI: $3.2–5.7 billion) in direct health system costs and $60.3 billion (95% UI: $44.4–83.4 billion) in societal costs per year. Disease amongst children <5 years cost society $39.8 billion, compared to $20.4 billion for all other age groups combined. Costs per norovirus illness varied by both region and age and was highest among adults ≥55 years. Productivity losses represented 84–99% of total costs varying by region. While low and middle income countries and high income countries had similar disease incidence (10,148 vs. 9,935 illness per 100,000 persons), high income countries generated 62% of global health system costs. In sensitivity analysis, the probability of hospitalization had the largest impact on health system cost estimates ($2.8 billion globally, assuming no hospitalization costs), while the probability of missing productive days had the largest impact on societal cost estimates ($35.9 billion globally, with a 25% probability of missing productive days).

Conclusions

The total economic burden is greatest in young children but the highest cost per illness is among older age groups in some regions. These large costs overwhelmingly are from productivity losses resulting from acute illness. Low, middle, and high income countries all have a considerable economic burden, suggesting that norovirus gastroenteritis is a truly global economic problem. Our findings can help identify which age group(s) and/or geographic regions may benefit the most from interventions.

Modeling the economic and epidemiologic impact of hookworm vaccine and mass drug administration (MDA) in Brazil, a high transmission setting

BACKGROUND

Although mass drug administration (MDA) has helped reduce morbidity attributed to soil-transmitted helminth infections in children, its limitations for hookworm infection have motivated the development of a human hookworm vaccine to both improve morbidity control and ultimately help block hookworm transmission leading to elimination. However, the potential economic and epidemiologic impact of a preventive vaccine has not been fully evaluated.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic compartment model coupled to a clinical and economics outcomes model representing both the human and hookworm populations in a high transmission region of Brazil. Experiments simulated different implementation scenarios of MDA and vaccination under varying circumstances.

RESULTS

Considering only intervention costs, both annual MDA and vaccination were highly cost-effective (ICERs ≤ $790/DALY averted) compared to no intervention, with vaccination resulting in lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs ≤ $444/DALY averted). From the societal perspective, vaccination was economically dominant (i.e., less costly and more effective) versus annual MDA in all tested scenarios, except when vaccination was less efficacious (20% efficacy, 5 year duration) and MDA coverage was 75%. Increasing the vaccine's duration of protection and efficacy, and including a booster injection in adulthood all increased the benefits of vaccination (i.e., resulted in lower hookworm prevalence, averted more disability-adjusted life years, and saved more costs). Assuming its target product profile, a pediatric hookworm vaccine drastically decreased hookworm prevalence in children to 14.6% after 20 years, compared to 57.2% with no intervention and 54.1% with MDA. The addition of a booster in adulthood further reduced the overall prevalence from 68.0% to 36.0% and nearly eliminated hookworm infection in children.

CONCLUSION

Using a human hookworm vaccine would be cost-effective and in many cases economically dominant, providing both health benefits and cost-savings. It could become a key technology in effecting control and elimination efforts for hookworm globally.