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Bartsch SM, O'Shea KJ, Weatherwax C, Strych U, Velmurugan K, John DC, Bottazzi ME, Hussein M, Martinez MF, Chin KL, Ciciriello A, Heneghan J, Dibbs A, Scannell SA, Hotez PJ, Lee BY. What is the economic benefit of annual COVID-19 vaccination from the adult individual perspective? J Infect Dis 2024:jiae179. [PMID: 38581432 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiae179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With COVID-19 vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward. METHODS We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine. RESULTS For an 18-49-year-old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64-year-old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1,278 and $119-$1,706, for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% pre-existing protection against infection (e.g., vaccinated 9 months earlier). CONCLUSION There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah M Bartsch
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Kelly J O'Shea
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Colleen Weatherwax
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Ulrich Strych
- National School of Tropical Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Kavya Velmurugan
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Danielle C John
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Maria Elena Bottazzi
- National School of Tropical Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Mustafa Hussein
- CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Marie F Martinez
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Kevin L Chin
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Allan Ciciriello
- National School of Tropical Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Jessie Heneghan
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Alexis Dibbs
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Sheryl A Scannell
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Peter J Hotez
- National School of Tropical Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Bruce Y Lee
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
- Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
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Bartsch SM, Weatherwax C, Wasserman MR, Chin KL, Martinez MF, Velmurugan K, Singh RD, John DC, Heneghan JL, Gussin GM, Scannell SA, Tsintsifas AC, O'Shea KJ, Dibbs AM, Leff B, Huang SS, Lee BY. How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2024; 25:639-646.e5. [PMID: 38432644 PMCID: PMC10990766 DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2024.02.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts. DESIGN Agent-based model representing a typical NH. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS NH residents and staff. METHODS We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns. RESULTS Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah M Bartsch
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Colleen Weatherwax
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | | | - Kevin L Chin
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Marie F Martinez
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Kavya Velmurugan
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Raveena D Singh
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California Irvine School of Medicine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Danielle C John
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Jessie L Heneghan
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Gabrielle M Gussin
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California Irvine School of Medicine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Sheryl A Scannell
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Alexandra C Tsintsifas
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Kelly J O'Shea
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Alexis M Dibbs
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Bruce Leff
- Division of Geriatric Medicine, Center for Transformative Geriatric Research, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Susan S Huang
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California Irvine School of Medicine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Bruce Y Lee
- Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH), CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Artificial Intelligence, Modeling, and Informatics, for Nutrition Guidance and Systems (AIMINGS) Center, CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, NY, USA; Pandemic Response Institute, New York City, NY, USA.
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