When increasing vegetable production may worsen food availability gaps: A simulation model in India

Translating agricultural productivity into food availability depends on food supply chains. Agricultural policy and research efforts promote increased horticultural crop production and yields, but the ability of low-resource food supply chains to handle increased volumes of perishable crops is not well understood. This study developed and used a discrete event simulation model to assess the impact of increased production of potato, onion, tomato, brinjal (eggplant), and cabbage on vegetable supply chains in Odisha, India. Odisha serves as an exemplar of vegetable supply chain challenges in many low-resource settings. Model results demonstrated that in response to increasing vegetable production 1.25-5x baseline amounts, demand fulfillment at the retail level fluctuated by + 3% to -4% from baseline; in other words, any improvements in vegetable availability for consumers were disproportionately low compared to the magnitude of increased production, and in some cases increased production worsened demand fulfillment. Increasing vegetable production led to disproportionately high rates of postharvest loss: for brinjal, for example, doubling agricultural production led to a 3% increase in demand fulfillment and a 19% increase in supply chain losses. The majority of postharvest losses occurred as vegetables accumulated and expired during wholesale-to-wholesale trade. In order to avoid inadvertently exacerbating postharvest losses, efforts to address food security through agriculture need to ensure that low-resource supply chains can handle increased productivity. Supply chain improvements should consider the constraints of different types of perishable vegetables, and they may need to go beyond structural improvements to include networks of communication and trade.

POS1497-PARE POST-TRIAL SURVEY OF PARTICIPANTS OF A PHASE 3 CLINICAL TRIAL IN SSC-ILD

Background:

The SENSCIS® trial (2015–18) was a large clinical trial (n=576) investigating the efficacy and safety of nintedanib in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease.1 The clinical research sponsors (CRS) collaborated with the scleroderma patient community advisory board (CAB) regarding the design, implementation and conduct of the trial.2 As part of this collaboration, the CRS and CAB developed a post-trial survey for SENSCIS® participants. The use of the developed patient-centric materials was optional for the sites.

Objectives:

The objectives of the SENSCIS® post-trial survey were to gain experience in collecting real-world information and trial satisfaction data from patients to inform and improve future patient centric clinical research.

Methods:

SENSCIS® trial participants who were involved in the extension trial SENSCIS®-ON completed a post-trial survey covering nine multiple-choice questions about three main topics:

[1]Recruitment – Where do patients usually search for clinical trials and how did they become aware of SENSCIS®?

[2]Motivation & Retention – What motivated patients to start and continue participation in SENSCIS®?

[3]Challenges & Wishes – What were the challenges during trial participation and how can future clinical trials be improved regarding patient centricity?

Results:

A total of 125 participants completed all survey questions. Participants could select more than one option. A total of 51 patients reported that they are usually not actively looking for trials. For those actively searching, the most common sources to learn about trials were specialists/general practitioners (GPs) (46 patients) and internet search engines (20 patients), followed by patient organisations (12 patients). Of note, 78 patients would pay attention to printed materials, such as a card/flyer/poster in a doctor’s office and get in touch with a trial/study site.

Back in 2015–2017, during recruitment for the SENSCIS® trial, the majority of the patients who answered the survey were made aware via their specialist/GP (116 patients), whereas 5 were made aware via patient organisations and 4 via the internet.

The most frequent motivations to join the trial were ‘hope to receive an improved therapy’ (98 patients), to help other patients (64 patients), and on the recommendation of their specialist/GP (81 patients). Similarly, the most liked aspects of the trial were the ‘opportunity to receive an improved therapy’ (92 patients) and ‘to support the development of an improved therapy for my illness’ (90 patients). More than half of patients reported ‘continuous observation of general health’ (72 patients) and ‘advice from GPs/specialists’ (71 patients) as motivation to stay in the trial (Figure 1).

‘Concerns about side effects’ (72 patients) and ‘not knowing whether the trial medication will work for me’ (63 patients) were reported as the least liked aspects of the trial. Travel to the site was reported as a challenge by 21 patients.

To improve clinical trials, patients requested more patient-friendly information (50 patients) and multiple formats of information material (46 patients). Finally, 48 patients expressed the desire to communicate with other trial participants.

Conclusion:

The SENSCIS® post-trial survey is a unique approach to receive real-world feedback from trial participants, and these pilot data will help improve future clinical trials and communication. The results highlight the importance of reaching patients who may not be actively looking for clinical trials.

Figure 1.

Motivation to stay in the SENSCIS® trial1,2

1More than one option could be selected.

2Data collected on 9th January 2021

References:

[1]Distler O et al. N Engl J Med. 2019 Jun 27;380(26):2518-2528. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1903076.

[2]Roennow A et al. BMJ Open. 2020 Dec 16;10(12):e039473. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039473.

Acknowledgements:

Sue Farrington (Federation of European Scleroderma Associations [FESCA] Belgium), Luke Evnin (Scleroderma Research Foundation, United States), Beatriz Garcia (Asociacion Espanola de Esclerodermia, Spain), Catarina Leite (Associacao Portuguesa de Doentes com Esclerodermia, Portugal), Alison Zheng (Chinese Organisation for Scleroderma), Matea Perković Popović (Hrvatska udruga oboljelih od sklerodermije, Croatia), Tina Ampudia (Asociacion Mexicana de Orientacion Apoyo y Lucha Contra la Esclerodermia, AC, Mexico), Stephanie Munoz (Norsk Revmatikerforbund, Diagnosegruppen for Systemisk Sklerose, Norway), Monica Holmner (Reumatikerförbundet Riksföreningen för systemisk skleros, Sweden).

Disclosure of Interests:

Ilaria Galetti: None declared, EDITH BROWN: None declared, Ann Kennedy Consultant of: I have been a member of the CAB (Community Patient Advisory Board) described in the accompanying abstract under discussion. My patient organisation has been paid for its participation in the CAB., Grant/research support from: It is not myself personally, but FESCA (Federation of European Scleroderma Associations) aisbl., that has received project grants for awareness raising and education. I was President of this Federation., Robert J Riggs: None declared, Annelise Roennow: None declared, Maureen Sauvé: None declared, Joep Welling Speakers bureau: BI MIDI and BI International, Sanofi, Henrik Finnern Employee of: I am employee of Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Annie Gilbert Consultant of: I am a paid consultant for Bohringer Ingelheim since 2016, Martina Gahlemann Employee of: I am employed by Boehringer Ingelheim (Schweiz) GmbH, Basel, Switzerland, Wiebke Sauter Employee of: I am employer of Boehringer-Ingelheim

How to Choose Target Facilities in a Region to Implement Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Control Measures

BACKGROUND

When trying to control regional spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), decision makers must choose the highest-yield facilities to target for interventions. The question is, with limited resources, how best to choose these facilities.

METHODS

Using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst-generated agent-based model of all Chicago metropolitan area inpatient facilities, we simulated the spread of CRE and different ways of choosing facilities to apply a prevention bundle (screening, chlorhexidine gluconate bathing, hand hygiene, geographic separation, and patient registry) to a resource-limited 1686 inpatient beds.

RESULTS

Randomly selecting facilities did not impact prevalence, but averted 620 new carriers and 175 infections, saving $6.3 million in total costs compared to no intervention. Selecting facilities by type (eg, long-term acute care hospitals) yielded a 16.1% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1960 cases and 558 infections, saving $62.4 million more than random selection. Choosing the largest facilities was better than random selection, but not better than by type. Selecting by considering connections to other facilities (ie, highest volume of discharge patients) yielded a 9.5% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1580 cases and 470 infections, and saving $51.6 million more than random selection. Selecting facilities using a combination of these metrics yielded the greatest reduction (19.0% relative prevalence decrease, preventing 1840 cases and 554 infections, saving $59.6 million compared with random selection).

CONCLUSIONS

While choosing target facilities based on single metrics (eg, most inpatient beds, most connections to other facilities) achieved better control than randomly choosing facilities, more effective targeting occurred when considering how these and other factors (eg, patient length of stay, care for higher-risk patients) interacted as a system.

How Long-Term Acute Care Hospitals Can Play an Important Role in Controlling Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae in a Region: A Simulation Modeling Study

Typically, long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) have less experience in and incentives to implementing aggressive infection control for drug-resistant organisms such as carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) than acute care hospitals. Decision makers need to understand how implementing control measures in LTACHs can impact CRE spread regionwide. Using our Chicago metropolitan region agent-based model to simulate CRE spread and control, we estimated that a prevention bundle in only LTACHs decreased prevalence by a relative 4.6%-17.1%, averted 1,090-2,795 new carriers, 273-722 infections and 37-87 deaths over 3 years and saved $30.5-$69.1 million, compared with no CRE control measures. When LTACHs and intensive care units intervened, prevalence decreased by a relative 21.2%. Adding LTACHs averted an additional 1,995 carriers, 513 infections, and 62 deaths, and saved $47.6 million beyond implementation in intensive care units alone. Thus, LTACHs may be more important than other acute care settings for controlling CRE, and regional efforts to control drug-resistant organisms should start with LTACHs as a centerpiece.

Machine Learning Classifiers for Twitter Surveillance of Vaping: Comparative Machine Learning Study

BACKGROUND

Twitter presents a valuable and relevant social media platform to study the prevalence of information and sentiment on vaping that may be useful for public health surveillance. Machine learning classifiers that identify vaping-relevant tweets and characterize sentiments in them can underpin a Twitter-based vaping surveillance system. Compared with traditional machine learning classifiers that are reliant on annotations that are expensive to obtain, deep learning classifiers offer the advantage of requiring fewer annotated tweets by leveraging the large numbers of readily available unannotated tweets.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to derive and evaluate traditional and deep learning classifiers that can identify tweets relevant to vaping, tweets of a commercial nature, and tweets with provape sentiments.

METHODS

We continuously collected tweets that matched vaping-related keywords over 2 months from August 2018 to October 2018. From this data set of tweets, a set of 4000 tweets was selected, and each tweet was manually annotated for relevance (vape relevant or not), commercial nature (commercial or not), and sentiment (provape or not). Using the annotated data, we derived traditional classifiers that included logistic regression, random forest, linear support vector machine, and multinomial naive Bayes. In addition, using the annotated data set and a larger unannotated data set of tweets, we derived deep learning classifiers that included a convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) network, LSTM-CNN network, and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) network. The unannotated tweet data were used to derive word vectors that deep learning classifiers can leverage to improve performance.

RESULTS

LSTM-CNN performed the best with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.98) for relevance, all deep learning classifiers including LSTM-CNN performed better than the traditional classifiers with an AUC of 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99) for distinguishing commercial from noncommercial tweets, and BiLSTM performed the best with an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.89) for provape sentiment. Overall, LSTM-CNN performed the best across all 3 classification tasks.

CONCLUSIONS

We derived and evaluated traditional machine learning and deep learning classifiers to identify vaping-related relevant, commercial, and provape tweets. Overall, deep learning classifiers such as LSTM-CNN had superior performance and had the added advantage of requiring no preprocessing. The performance of these classifiers supports the development of a vaping surveillance system.

PARE0009 COMMUNITY ADVISORY BOARD INPUT CAN MAKE LAY SUMMARIES OF CLINICAL TRIAL RESULTS MORE UNDERSTANDABLE

Background:

Under European Union (EU) Clinical Trial regulations,1clinical research sponsors (CRSs) must ensure all studies performed in the EU are accompanied by a trial summary for laypersons, published within 1 year of study completion. These lay summaries should disseminate clinical trial results in an easy-to-understand way for trial participants, patient and caregiver communities, and the general public. The European Patients Forum (EPF)2and European Patients’ Academy on Therapeutic Innovation (EUPATI)3encourage CRSs to engage with patient organisations (POs) in the development of lay summaries. This recognises the patients’ contribution to clinical research and supports the development of patient-focused material.

Objectives:

We share learnings from a collaboration between scleroderma POs and a CRS to create the SENSCIS® trial (NCT02597933) written and video lay summaries.

Methods:

A community advisory board (CAB), comprising representatives from 11 scleroderma POs covering a range of countries/regions, was formed based on the EURORDIS charter for collaboration in clinical research.4Through three structured meetings, over a seven-month period, the CAB provided advice on lay summary materials (written and video) drafted by the CRS’ Lay Summary Group (Fig. 1). At each review cycle, the CAB advice was addressed to make content more understandable and more relevant for patients and the general public.

Results:

The CAB advised that the existence of lay summaries is not well known in the patient community and also recommended the development of trial-specific lay summary videos to further improve understandability of the clinical trial results for the general public. Videos are a key channel of communication, enabling access to information for people with specific health needs and lower literacy levels. Following CAB advice, the CRS developed a stand-alone video entitled“What are lay summaries?”and a trial-specific lay summary video. Revisions to lay summary content (written and video) included colour schemes, iconography and language changes to make content more understandable. For videos, adjustments to animation speed, script and voiceover were implemented to improve clarity and flow of information (Fig. 2). Approved final versions of lay summary materials are publicly available on the CRS website. Translation into languages representing trial-site countries is in progress to widen access to non-English speakers and, where possible, local versions are being reviewed by the patient community.

Conclusion:

Structured collection and implementation of CAB advice can make lay summary materials more understandable for the patient community and wider general public.

References:

[1]EU. Summaries of clinical trial results for laypersons. 2018

[2]EPF. EPF position: clinical trial results – communication of the lay summary. 2015

[3]EUPATI. Guidance for patient involvement in ethical review of clinical trials. 2018

[4]EURORDIS. Charter for Collaboration in Clinical Research in Rare Diseases. 2009

Disclosure of Interests:

Joep Welling Speakers bureau: Four times as a patient advocate for employees of BII and BI MIDI with a fixed amount of € 150,00 per occasion., Annelise Roennow: None declared, Maureen Sauvé Grant/research support from: Educational grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and Janssen., EDITH BROWN: None declared, Ilaria Galetti: None declared, Alex Gonzalez Consultant of: Payment made to the patient organisation (Scleroderma Research Foundation) for participation in advisory boards, Alexandra Paula Portales Guiraud: None declared, Ann Kennedy Grant/research support from: AS FESCA aisbl, Catarina Leite: None declared, Robert J. Riggs: None declared, Alison Zheng Grant/research support from: We get grants from Lorem Vascular; BI China,; Jianke Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; Kangjing Biological Co., Ltd.; COFCO Coca-Cola to organize national scleroderma meetings, offer patients service, holding academic meetings and other public activities, there is also a small part of the grants used to pay the workers in our organization., Consultant of: I worked as a paid consultant for BI. Pay-per-job., Speakers bureau: I was invited once to be a speaker at BI China’s internal meeting and they paid me., Matea Perkovic Popovic: None declared, Annie Gilbert Consultant of: I have worked as a paid consultant with BI International for over 3 years, since Sept 2016., Lizette Moros Employee of: Lizette Moros is an employee of Boehringer Ingelheim, Kamila Sroka-Saidi Employee of: Paid employee of Boehringer Ingelheim., Thomas Schindler Employee of: Employee of Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma, Henrik Finnern Employee of: Paid employee of Boehringer Ingelheim.

How Introducing a Registry With Automated Alerts for Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) May Help Control CRE Spread in a Region

BACKGROUND

Regions are considering the use of electronic registries to track patients who carry antibiotic-resistant bacteria, including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Implementing such a registry can be challenging and requires time, effort, and resources; therefore, there is a need to better understand the potential impact.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model of all inpatient healthcare facilities (90 acute care hospitals, 9 long-term acute care hospitals, 351 skilled nursing facilities, and 12 ventilator-capable skilled nursing facilities) in the Chicago metropolitan area, surrounding communities, and patient flow using our Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst software platform. Scenarios explored the impact of a registry that tracked patients carrying CRE to help guide infection prevention and control.

RESULTS

When all Illinois facilities participated (n = 402), the registry reduced the number of new carriers by 11.7% and CRE prevalence by 7.6% over a 3-year period. When 75% of the largest Illinois facilities participated (n = 304), registry use resulted in a 11.6% relative reduction in new carriers (16.9% and 1.2% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 5.0% relative reduction in prevalence. When 50% participated (n = 201), there were 10.7% and 5.6% relative reductions in incident carriers and prevalence, respectively. When 25% participated (n = 101), there was a 9.1% relative reduction in incident carriers (20.4% and 1.6% in participating and nonparticipating facilities, respectively) and 2.8% relative reduction in prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing an extensively drug-resistant organism registry reduced CRE spread, even when only 25% of the largest Illinois facilities participated due to patient sharing. Nonparticipating facilities garnered benefits, with reductions in new carriers.

The value of tailoring vial sizes to populations and locations

BACKGROUND

Frequently, a country will procure a single vaccine vial size, but the question remains whether tailoring the use of different size vaccine vial presentations based on populations or location characteristics within a single country could provide additional benefits, such as reducing open vial wastage (OVW) or reducing missed vaccination opportunities.

METHODS

Using the Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains (HERMES) software, we built a simulation model of the Zambia routine vaccine supply chain. At baseline, we distributed 10-dose Measles-Rubella (MR) vials to all locations, and then distributed 5-dose and 1-dose MR vials to (1) all locations, (2) rural districts, (3) rural health facilities, (4) outreach sites, and (5) locations with average MR session sizes <5 and <10 children. We ran sensitivity on each scenario using MR vial opening thresholds of 0% and 50%, i.e. a healthcare worker opens an MR vaccine for any number of children (0%) or if at least half will be used (50%).

RESULTS

Replacing 10-dose MR with 5-dose MR vials everywhere led to the largest reduction in MR OVW, saving 573,892 doses (103,161 doses with the 50% vial opening threshold) and improving MR availability by 1% (9%). This scenario, however, increased cold chain utilization and led to a 1% decrease in availability of other vaccines. Tailoring 5-dose MR vials to rural health facilities or based on average session size reduced cold transport constraints, increased total vaccine availability (+1%) and reduced total cost per dose administered (-$0.01) compared to baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

In Zambia, tailoring 5-dose MR vials to rural health facilities or by average session size results in the highest total vaccine availability compared to all other scenarios (regardless of OVT policy) by reducing open vial wastage without increasing cold chain utilization.

Dual-chamber injection device for measles-rubella vaccine: The potential impact of introducing varying sizes of the devices in 3 countries

Introduction

By pairing diluent with vaccines, dual-chamber vaccine injection devices simplify the process of reconstituting vaccines before administration and thus decrease associated open vial wastage and adverse events. However, since these devices are larger than current vaccine vials for lyophilized vaccines, manufacturers need guidance as to how the size of these devices may affect vaccine distribution and delivery.

Methods

Using HERMES-generated immunization supply chain models of Benin, Bihar (India), and Mozambique, we replace the routine 10-dose measles-rubella (MR) lyophilized vaccine with single-dose MR dual-chamber injection devices, ranging the volume-per-dose (5.2–26 cm³) and price-per-dose ($0.70, $1.40).

Results

At a volume-per-dose of 5.2 cm³, a dual-chamber injection device results in similar vaccine availability, decreased open vial wastage (OVW), and similar total cost per dose administered as compared to baseline in moderately constrained supply chains. Between volumes of 7.5 cm³ and 26 cm³, these devices lead to a reduction in vaccine availability between 1% and 14% due to increases in cold chain storage utilization between 1% and 7% and increases in average peak transport utilization between 2% and 44%. At the highest volume-per-dose, 26 cm³, vaccine availability decreases between 9% and 14%. The total costs per dose administered varied between each scenario, as decreases in vaccine procurement costs were coupled with decreases in doses administered. However, introduction of a dual-chamber injection device only resulted in improved total cost per dose administered for Benin and Mozambique (at 5.2 cm³ and $0.70-per-dose) when the total number of doses administered changed <1% from baseline.

Conclusion

In 3 different country supply chains, a single-dose MR dual-chamber injection device would need to be no larger than 5.2 cm³ to not significantly impair the flow of other vaccines.

Toward Real-Time Infoveillance of Twitter Health Messages

There is growing interest in conducting public health research using data from social media. In particular, Twitter "infoveillance" has demonstrated utility across health contexts. However, rigorous and reproducible methodologies for using Twitter data in public health are not yet well articulated, particularly those related to content analysis, which is a highly popular approach. In 2014, we gathered an interdisciplinary team of health science researchers, computer scientists, and methodologists to begin implementing an open-source framework for real-time infoveillance of Twitter health messages (RITHM). Through this process, we documented common challenges and novel solutions to inform future work in real-time Twitter data collection and subsequent human coding. The RITHM framework allows researchers and practitioners to use well-planned and reproducible processes in retrieving, storing, filtering, subsampling, and formatting data for health topics of interest. Further considerations for human coding of Twitter data include coder selection and training, data representation, codebook development and refinement, and monitoring coding accuracy and productivity. We illustrate methodological considerations through practical examples from formative work related to hookah tobacco smoking, and we reference essential methods literature related to understanding and using Twitter data.

Excitotoxicity as a Common Mechanism for Fetal Neuronal Injury with Hypoxia and Intrauterine Inflammation

Excitotoxicity is a mechanism of neuronal injury, implicated in the pathogenesis of many acute and chronic neurologic disorders, including perinatal brain injury associated with hypoxia-ischemia and exposure to intrauterine inflammation. Glutamate, the primary excitatory neurotransmitter, signals through N-methyl-d-aspartic acid (NMDA)/α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionate (AMPA) receptors. Proper functioning of both of these receptors, in conjunction with glutamate signaling, is crucial for normal development. However, even a small imbalance can result in perinatal neuronal injury. Therefore, a mechanistic understanding of the role of excitotoxicity and the NMDA/AMPA receptor functions is critical to establishing the pathogenesis of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) and perinatal brain injury due to exposure to intrauterine inflammation. Evidence from experimental animal models and clinical studies indicates that both oxygen and glucose deficiencies play a major role in fetal neuronal injury. However, the connection between these deficiencies, excitotoxicity, and HIE is not well established. The excitotoxic mechanisms in animal models and humans have many parallels, suggesting that detailed animal studies can elicit clinically relevant discoveries. While current therapies for HIE include hypothermia and other neuroprotective measures, emphasizing prevention of acute injuries, increase of therapeutic time window, and increased neural repair, there are no effective widely used treatment modalities for fetuses and neonates exposed to intrauterine inflammation. Further studies of HIE and intrauterine inflammation (as in cases of preterm birth and chorioamnionitis) will provide a better insight into development of effective therapeutic interventions for these conditions.

The impact of making vaccines thermostable in Niger's vaccine supply chain

OBJECTIVE

Determine the effects on the vaccine cold chain of making different types of World Health Organization (WHO) Expanded Program on Immunizations (EPI) vaccines thermostable.

METHODS

Utilizing a detailed computational, discrete-event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain, we simulated the impact of making different combinations of the six current EPI vaccines thermostable.

FINDINGS

Making any EPI vaccine thermostable relieved existing supply chain bottlenecks (especially at the lowest levels), increased vaccine availability of all EPI vaccines, and decreased cold storage and transport capacity utilization. By far, the most substantial impact came from making the pentavalent vaccine thermostable, increasing its own vaccine availability from 87% to 97% and the vaccine availabilities of all other remaining non-thermostable EPI vaccines to over 93%. By contrast, making each of the other vaccines thermostable had considerably less effect on the remaining vaccines, failing to increase the vaccine availabilities of other vaccines to more than 89%. Making tetanus toxoid vaccine along with the pentavalent thermostable further increased the vaccine availability of all EPI vaccines by at least 1-2%.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows the potential benefits of making any of Niger's EPI vaccines thermostable and therefore supports further development of thermostable vaccines. Eliminating the need for refrigerators and freezers should not necessarily be the only benefit and goal of vaccine thermostability. Rather, making even a single vaccine (or some subset of the vaccines) thermostable could free up significant cold storage space for other vaccines, and thereby help alleviate supply chain bottlenecks that occur throughout the world.

Maintaining vaccine delivery following the introduction of the rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in Thailand

Although the substantial burdens of rotavirus and pneumococcal disease have motivated many countries to consider introducing the rotavirus vaccine (RV) and heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) to their National Immunization Programs (EPIs), these new vaccines could affect the countries' vaccine supply chains (i.e., the series of steps required to get a vaccine from their manufacturers to patients). We developed detailed computational models of the Trang Province, Thailand, vaccine supply chain to simulate introducing various RV and PCV-7 vaccine presentations and their combinations. Our results showed that the volumes of these new vaccines in addition to current routine vaccines could meet and even exceed (1) the refrigerator space at the provincial district and sub-district levels and (2) the transport cold space at district and sub-district levels preventing other vaccines from being available to patients who arrive to be immunized. Besides the smallest RV presentation (17.1 cm³/dose), all other vaccine introduction scenarios required added storage capacity at the provincial level (range: 20 L–1151 L per month) for the three largest formulations, and district level (range: 1 L–124 L per month) across all introduction scenarios. Similarly, with the exception of the two smallest RV presentation (17.1 cm³/dose), added transport capacity was required at both district and sub-district levels. Added transport capacity required across introduction scenarios from the provincial to district levels ranged from 1 L–187 L, and district to sub-district levels ranged from 1 L–13 L per shipment. Finally, only the smallest RV vaccine presentation (17.1 cm³/dose) had no appreciable effect on vaccine availability at sub-districts. All other RV and PCV-7 vaccines were too large for the current supply chain to handle without modifications such as increasing storage or transport capacity. Introducing these new vaccines to Thailand could have dynamic effects on the availability of all vaccines that may not be initially apparent to decision-makers.

FUNCTIONAL BRAIN ABNORMALITIES ARE RELATED TO CLINICAL RECOVERY AND TIME TO RETURN-TO-PLAY IN ATHLETES

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between athlete reports of symptoms, neurophysiological activation, and neuropsychological functioning is investigated in a sample of high school athletes.

METHODS

All athletes were evaluated using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), a computer-based battery of neurocognitive tests, and a subjective symptom scale. Athletes were evaluated within approximately 1 week of injury and again after clinical recovery using all assessment modalities.

RESULTS

This study found that abnormal fMRI results during the first week of recovery predicted clinical recovery. As a group, athletes who demonstrated hyperactivation on fMRI scans at the time of their first fMRI scan demonstrated a more prolonged clinical recovery than athletes who did not demonstrate hyperactivation at the time of their first fMRI scan.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate the relationship between neurophysiological, neuropsychological, and subjective symptom data in a relatively large sample composed primarily of concussed high school athletes. fMRI represents an important evolving technology for the understanding of brain recovery after concussion and may help shape return-to-play guidelines in the future.

Three-dimensional reconstruction of the human renal glomerulus

The capillary bed of the human renal glomerulus is one of the more complex capillary structures in the human body. This paper illustrates three-dimensional reconstruction of the capillary bed from serial sections. It shows that, although traditional methods of three-dimensional rendering by computer fail to handle the complexities of the capillary structure, new methods based on filtering using three-dimensional mathematical morphology are capable of revealing previously unseen details. This is done at the expense of eliminating fine structure (small capillaries). An error analysis allows the degree to which fine details are lost to be estimated.