US population qualifying for aspirin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

Objective

Aspirin has been used for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) for decades, but this indication has become controversial with recent trial data. The 2022 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) provided a recommendation to consider aspirin use for primary prevention in adults 40-59 years with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10 % and not at increased risk of bleeding, yet population estimates for the impact of this recommendation are unknown. The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence and demographics of the US population who meet eligibility criteria for aspirin under the new 2022 USPSTF guidelines.

Methods

This is a serial cross-sectional study using data from the 2011-March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. Individuals aged 40-59 years without a self-reported history of ASCVD were included. 10-year estimated ASCVD risk ≥10 % as calculated by the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and increased bleeding risk determined using variables adapted from USPSTF guidelines were further applied as inclusion and exclusion criteria, respectively. The weighted frequencies of US adults aged 40-59 years qualifying for primary prevention aspirin, subgrouped by gender, age, and race/ethnicity, were calculated.

Results

Among 72,840,734 US individuals aged 40-59 years, 7.2 million (10 %) are eligible for consideration of primary prevention aspirin by PCE criteria. Of these, approximately 30 % would be potentially excluded based on increased bleeding risks, resulting in a net eligible cohort of 5 million. This represents 7 % of US adults aged 40-59 years and only 2.6 % of adults ≥18 years. Men, age 50-59 years, and Black race have higher proportions meeting aspirin use eligibility.

Conclusions

The overall prevalence of US individuals who qualify for aspirin for primary prevention under the 2022 USPSTF guidelines is modest, with larger proportional eligibility among men, older age, and Black individuals.

Trimethylamine-N-Oxide and Related Metabolites: Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in the Dallas Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and related metabolites with adverse cardiovascular events in a multiethnic urban primary prevention population.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study of 361 participants of the Dallas Heart Study, including 88 participants with an incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event and 273 controls matched for age, sex, and body mass index without an ASCVD event during 12 years of follow-up (January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2015). Plasma levels of TMAO, choline, carnitine, betaine, and butyrobetaine were measured by mass spectrometry. The differential odds for incident ASCVD by metabolite levels between cases and controls were compared by a conditional logistic regression model adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

Participants with incident ASCVD had higher levels of TMAO and related metabolites compared with those without ASCVD (P<.05 for all). Those with plasma TMAO concentrations in quartile 4 had a more than 2-fold higher odds of ASCVD compared with those in quartile 1 (odds ratio, 2.77 [95% CI, 1.05 to 7.7; P=.04] for hard ASCVD and 2.41 [95% CI, 1.049 to 5.709; P=.04]). Similar trends were seen with the related metabolites choline, betaine, carnitine, and butyrobetaine.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that TMAO and related metabolites are independently associated with ASCVD events. Although further studies are needed, measurement of TMAO and related metabolites may have a role in ASCVD risk stratification for primary prevention.

Effect of liraglutide on thigh muscle fat and muscle composition in adults with overweight or obesity: Results from a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Excess muscle fat is observed in obesity and associated with greater burden of cardiovascular risk factors and higher risk of mortality. Liraglutide reduces total body weight and visceral fat but its effect on muscle fat and adverse muscle composition is unknown.

METHODS

This is a pre-specified secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that examined the effects of liraglutide plus a lifestyle intervention on visceral adipose tissue and ectopic fat among adults without diabetes with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 or ≥27 kg/m2 and metabolic syndrome. Participants were randomly assigned to a once-daily subcutaneous injection of liraglutide (target dose 3.0 mg) or matching placebo for 40 weeks. Body fat distribution and muscle composition was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 40-week follow-up. Muscle composition was described by the combination of thigh muscle fat and muscle volume. Treatment difference (95% confidence intervals [CI]) was calculated by least-square means adjusted for baseline thigh muscle fat. The association between changes in thigh muscle fat and changes in body weight were assessed using Spearman correlation coefficients. The effect of liraglutide versus placebo on adverse muscle composition, denoted by high thigh muscle fat and low thigh muscle volume, was explored.

RESULTS

Among the 128 participants with follow-up imaging (92.2% women, 36.7% Black), median muscle fat at baseline was 7.8%. The mean percent change in thigh muscle fat over median follow-up of 36 weeks was -2.87% among participants randomized to liraglutide (n = 73) and 0.05% in the placebo group (absolute change: -0.23% vs. 0.01%). The estimated treatment difference adjusted for baseline thigh muscle fat was -0.24% (95% CI, -0.41 to -0.06, P-value 0.009). Longitudinal change in thigh muscle fat was significantly associated with change in body weight in the placebo group but not the liraglutide group. The proportion of participants with adverse muscle composition decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% over follow-up with liraglutide, but there was no change with placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of predominantly women with overweight or obesity in the absence of diabetes, once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide was associated with a reduction in thigh muscle fat and adverse muscle composition compared with placebo. The contribution of muscle fat improvement to the cardiometabolic benefits of liraglutide requires further study.

Health and Economic Value of Eliminating Socioeconomic Disparities in US Youth Physical Activity

Importance

There are considerable socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in youth physical activity (PA) levels. For example, studies show that lower-SES youth are less active, have lower participation in organized sports and physical education classes, and have more limited access to PA equipment.

Objective

To determine the potential public health and economic effects of eliminating disparities in PA levels among US youth SES groups.

Design and Setting

An agent-based model representing all 6- to 17-year-old children in the US was used to simulate the epidemiological, clinical, and economic effects of disparities in PA levels among different SES groups and the effect of reducing these disparities.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Anthropometric measures (eg, body mass index) and the presence and severity of risk factors associated with weight (stroke, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, or cancer), as well as direct and indirect cost savings.

Results

This model, representing all 50 million US children and adolescents 6 to 17 years old, found that if the US eliminates the disparity in youth PA levels across SES groups, absolute overweight and obesity prevalence would decrease by 0.826% (95% CI, 0.821%-0.832%), resulting in approximately 383 000 (95% CI, 368 000-399 000) fewer cases of overweight and obesity and 101 000 (95% CI, 98 000-105 000) fewer cases of weight-related diseases (stroke and coronary heart disease events, type 2 diabetes, or cancer). This would result in more than $15.60 (95% CI, $15.01-$16.10) billion in cost savings over the youth cohort's lifetime. There are meaningful benefits even when reducing the disparity by just 25%, which would result in $1.85 (95% CI, $1.70-$2.00) billion in direct medical costs averted and $2.48 (95% CI, $2.04-$2.92) billion in productivity losses averted. For every 1% in disparity reduction, total productivity losses would decrease by about $83.8 million, and total direct medical costs would decrease by about $68.7 million.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study quantified the potential savings from eliminating or reducing PA disparities, which can help policymakers, health care systems, schools, funders, sports organizations, and other businesses better prioritize investments toward addressing these disparities.

Novel plasma biomarkers of coronary artery calcium incidence or progression: Insights from the prospective multi-ethnic Dallas Heart Study cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Identifying the association of novel plasma biomarkers with coronary artery calcium (CAC) incidence or progression may provide insights into the pathophysiology of atherogenesis and plaque formation.

METHODS

Participants of the Dallas Heart Study (DHS), a multi-ethnic cohort of ambulatory individuals at low-intermediate risk for future atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), who had their blood tested for 31 biomarkers reflecting multiple pathophysiological pathways, underwent 2 serial non-contrast computed tomography assessments for CAC a median ∼7 years apart. The collected biomarkers were explored for association with CAC incidence or progression using univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1424 participants were included; mean age 43 years, 39 % male, and nearly half African-American. Over a 7-year interval between the two CAC measurements, 340 participants (23.9 %) had CAC incidence or progression, 105 (7.4 %) with incident CAC, and 309 (21.7 %) with CAC progression. Although several plasma biomarkers were associated with CAC incidence or progression in a univariate model, only soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), related to atherosclerosis by the inflammatory pathway, remained independently associated in a multivariate model adjusted for traditional risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies are needed to characterize the role of sICAM-1 in CAC evolvement to establish whether it has a pivotal mechanistic contribution or is rather an innocent bystander. Alternate measures of coronary atherosclerosis may be needed to elucidate contributors to atherosclerosis incidence or progression.

Novel Size-Based High-Density Lipoprotein Subspecies and Incident Vascular Events

Background High-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle concentration likely outperforms HDL cholesterol in predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular events. Whether size-based HDL subspecies explain the atheroprotective associations of HDL particle concentration remains unknown. Our objective was to assess whether levels of specific size-based HDL subspecies associate with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a multiethnic pooled cohort and improve risk prediction beyond traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors. Methods and Results Seven HDL size-based subspecies were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance (LP4 algorithm; H1=smallest; H7=largest) among participants without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease), and DHS (Dallas Heart Study) cohorts (n=15 371 people). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between HDL subspecies and incident myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke at follow-up (average 8-10 years) adjusting for HDL cholesterol and risk factors. Improvement in risk prediction was assessed via discrimination and reclassification analysis. Within the pooled cohort (median age 57 years; female 54%; Black 22%) higher H1 (small) and H4 (medium) concentrations were inversely associated with incident MI (hazard ratio [HR]/SD, H1 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94]; H4 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.97]). H4 but not H1 improved risk prediction indices for incident MI. Increasing H2 and H4 were inversely associated with improved risk prediction indices for composite end point of stroke, MI, and cardiovascular death (HR/SD, H2 0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; H4 0.91 [95% CI, 0.85-0.98]). Levels of the large subspecies (H6 and H7) were not associated with any vascular end point. Conclusions Two of 7 HDL size-based subspecies modestly improved risk prediction for MI and composite vascular end points in a large multiethnic pooled cohort. These findings support assessment of precise HDL subspecies for future studies regarding clinical utility.

Accuracy of incidental visual coronary artery calcium assessment compared with dedicated coronary artery calcium scoring

INTRODUCTION

CAC can be detected on routine chest computed tomography (CT) scans and may contribute to CVD risk estimation, but the accuracy of visual CAC scoring may be affected by the specialty of the interpreting radiologist and/or the use of contrast.

METHODS

The accuracy of visual CAC estimation on non-gated CT scans was evaluated at UT Southwestern Medical Center (UTSW) and Parkland Health and Hospital System (PHHS). All adults who underwent CAC scanning and a non-gated CT scan within 6 months were identified and the scores from the two CTs were compared overall and stratified by type of reader and whether contrast was used. Visual CAC categories of none, small, moderate, and large were compared to CAC ​= ​0, 1-99, 100-399, and ≥400, respectively.

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2021, 934 patients (mean age 60 ​± ​12 ​y, 43% male, 61% White, 34% Black, 24% Hispanic, 54% from PHHS) had both CT scans. Of these, 441 (47%) had no CAC, 278 (30%) small, 147 (16%) moderate, and 66 (7%) large CAC on non-gated CT. Visual CAC estimates were highly correlated with CAC scores (Kendalls tau-b ​= ​0.76, p ​< ​0.0001). Among those with no visual CAC, 76% had CAC ​= ​0 (72% of contrast-enhanced vs 85% of non-contrast scans, 88% of scans interpreted by CT radiologist vs 78% of those interpreted by other radiologist). In those with moderate-to-large visual CAC, 99% had CAC >0 and 88% had CAC ≥100, including 89% of those with contrast, 90% of those without contrast, 80% of those read by a CT radiologist, and 88% of those read by a non-CT radiologist.

DISCUSSION

Visual CAC estimates on non-gated CT scans are concordant with Agatston score categories from cardiac CT scans. A lack of visual CAC on non-gated CT scans may not be sufficient to "de-risk" patients, particularly for contrast-enhanced scans and those read by non-CT radiologists. However, the presence of moderate-to-large CAC, including on contrasted scans and regardless of radiologist type, is highly predictive of CAC and may be used to identify high-risk patients for prevention interventions.

Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope and Prognosis in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

The prognostic utility of the oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES) in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction is uncertain. In this post hoc analysis of the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training) trial (n = 2,074), we tested for associations of OUES and peak oxygen uptake (VO2) with heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death in multivariable Cox regression models, adjusting for minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) slope and other important confounders. Harrell's C-statistics assessed the discriminatory performance of OUES and peak VO2. Lower OUES was associated with increased risk of the outcome (quartile 1 vs 4: hazard ratio 2.1 [1.5 to 2.9, p <0.001]). Peak VO2 had greater discrimination than OUES in comparable models (e.g., C-statistic = 0.73 vs 0.70, p <0.001, respectively). In the subgroup with respiratory exchange ratio <1 (n = 358), peak VO2 was associated with the outcome (p <0.001) but OUES was not (p = 0.96). In conclusion, whereas OUES was associated with clinical outcomes independently of VE/VCO2 slope, its prognostic utility was inferior to that of peak VO2, even when measured at submaximal effort.

Associations of Cumulative Perceived Stress with Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Outcomes: Findings from The Dallas Heart Study

Background

Data remain sparse regarding the impact of chronic stress on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and outcomes. Prior work has been limited by incomplete assessments of perceived stress and focus on single stress domains. We evaluated the association between a composite measure of perceived stress and CVD risk factors and outcomes.

Methods

Participants from the Dallas Heart Study phase 2 (2007-2009) without prevalent CVD who completed questionnaire assessments of perceived stress were included (n=2685). Individual perceived stress subcomponents (generalized stress, psychosocial, financial, and neighborhood stress) were standardized and integrated into a single cumulative stress score (CSS) with equal weighting for each component. Associations between CSS and demographics, psychosocial variables and cardiac risk factors were assessed in univariable and multivariable analyses. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations of the CSS with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and Global CVD (ASCVD, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation) after adjustment for demographics and traditional risk factors.

Results

Median age of the study population was 48 years, 55% were female, 49% Black and 15% Hispanic/Latinx. CSS was higher among participants who were younger, female, Black or Hispanic, and those with lower income and educational attainment (p<.0001 for each). Higher CSS was associated with self-report of racial/ethnic discrimination, lack of health insurance and last medical contact > one year previously (p<.0001 for each). In multivariable regression models adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income and education, higher CSS associated with hypertension, smoking, and higher body mass index, waist circumference Hemoglobin A1C, hs-CRP and sedentary time (p< 0.01 for each). Over a median follow-up of 12.4 years, higher CSS associated with ASCVD (adjusted HR 1.22 per SD, 95% CI 1.01-1.47) and Global CVD (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.03-1.40). No interactions were seen between CSS, demographic factors, and outcomes.

Conclusion

Composite multidimensional assessments of perceived stress may help to identify individuals at risk for CVD who may be targeted for stress mitigation or enhanced prevention strategies. These approaches may be best focused on vulnerable populations, given the higher burden of stress in women, Black and Hispanic individuals, and those with lower income and education.

WHAT IS NEW?

A novel measure of cumulative stress was created that integrates generalized, psychosocial, financial, and neighborhood perceived stress.Cumulative stress was higher among women, Black and Hispanic participants, younger individuals and persons with lower income and educational attainment and was associated with adverse health behaviors and increased burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.In a diverse cohort, higher cumulative stress associated with incident CVD after adjustment for demographics and traditional risk factors. No interactions were seen based on demographic factors.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Although associations of chronic stress with CVD were similar across demographic subgroups, the higher burden of stress among younger individuals, women, Black and Hispanic participants, and those with lower SES suggests that CVD risk associated with higher stress affects marginalized groups disproportionately.Cumulative Stress is associated with modifiable risk factors and health behaviors. Future studies should explore targeting behavioral modification and risk factor reduction programs, as well as stress reduction strategies, to individuals with high cumulative stress.Additional research is needed to uncover mechanisms that underly the association between chronic stress and cardiovascular disease.

Lifetime healthcare expenses across demographic and cardiovascular risk groups: The application of a novel modeling strategy in a large multiethnic cohort study

Objective

To understand the burden of healthcare expenses over the lifetime of individuals and evaluate differences among those with cardiovascular risk factors and among disadvantaged groups based on race/ethnicity and sex.

Methods

We linked data from the longitudinal multiethnic Dallas Heart Study, which recruited participants between 2000 and 2002, with inpatient and outpatient claims from all hospitals in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex through December 2018, capturing encounter expenses. Race/ethnicity and sex, as well as five risk factors, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and overweight/obesity, were defined at cohort enrollment. For each individual, expenses were indexed to age and cumulated between 40 and 80 years of age. Lifetime expenses across exposures were evaluated as interactions in generalized additive models.

Results

A total of 2184 individuals (mean age, 45±10 years; 61% women, 53% Black) were followed between 2000 and 2018. The mean modeled lifetime cumulative healthcare expenses were $442,629 (IQR, $423,850 to $461,408). In models that included 5 risk factors, Black individuals had $21,306 higher lifetime healthcare spending compared with non-Black individuals (P < .001), and men had modestly higher expenses than women ($5987, P < .001). Across demographic groups, the presence of risk factors was associated with progressively higher lifetime expenses, with significant independent association of diabetes ($28,075, P < .001), overweight/obesity ($8816, P < .001), smoking ($3980, P = .009), and hypertension ($528, P = .02) with excess spending.

Conclusion

Our study suggests Black individuals have higher lifetime healthcare expenses, exaggerated by the substantially higher prevalence of risk factors, with differences emerging in older age.

Longitudinal Changes in Cardiac Troponin and Risk of Heart Failure Among Black Adults

BACKGROUND

Among Black adults, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) is associated with heart failure (HF) risk. The association of longitudinal changes in hs-cTnI with risk of incident HF, HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF, respectively), among Black adults is not well-established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included Black participants from the Jackson Heart Study with available hs-cTnI data at visits 1 (2000-2004) and 2 (2005-2008) and no history of cardiovascular disease. Cox models were used to evaluate associations of categories of longitudinal change in hs-cTnI with incident HF risk. Among 2423 participants, 11.6% had incident elevation in hs-cTnI at visit 2, and 16.9% had stable or improved elevation (≤50% increase in hs-cTnI), and 4.0% had worsened hs-cTnI elevation (>50% increase). Over a median follow-up of 12.0 years, there were 139 incident HF hospitalizations (64 HFrEF, 58 HFpEF). Compared with participants without an elevated hs-cTnI, those with incident, stable or improved, or worsened hs-cTnI elevation had higher HF risk (adjusted hazard ratio 3.20 [95% confidence interval, 1.92-5.33]; adjusted hazard ratio 2.40, [95% confidence interval, 1.47-3.92]; and adjusted hazard ratio 8.10, [95% confidence interval, 4.74-13.83], respectively). Similar patterns of association were observed for risk of HFrEF and HFpEF.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Black adults, an increase in hs-cTnI levels on follow-up was associated with a higher HF risk.

LAY SUMMARY

The present study included 2423 Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study with available biomarkers of cardiac injury and no history of cardiovascular disease at visits 1 and 2. The majority of participants did not have evidence of cardiac injury at both visits (67.5%), 11.6% had evidence of cardiac injury only on follow-up, 14.5% had stable elevations, 4.0% had worsened elevations, and 2.4% had improved elevations of cardiac injury biomarkers during follow-up. Compared with participants without evidence of cardiac injury, those with new, stable, and worsened levels of cardiac injury had a higher risk of developing heart failure.

TWEET

Among Black adults, persistent or worsening subclinical myocardial injury is associated with an elevated risk of HF.

2360. Serum Cholesterol Variability and Mortality in PLWH On Lipid-Lowering Therapy

Background

In people living with HIV (PLWH), consistent use of lipid lowering therapy (LLT) is associated with lower all-cause mortality and use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) with reduced serum cholesterol (C). In the general population, high cholesterol variability (CV) is independently associated with all-cause mortality. We explored the relationship between consistency of LLT/TDF exposure, cholesterol variability, and mortality in PLWH.

Methods

In a cohort of 15,860 PLWH who achieved undetectable viremia on ART between 2001 and 2011 we used multivariable Cox modeling, stratified by prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify predictors of mortality and built multi-level marginal structural models for different LLT/TDF exposure levels based on percentage of days covered (PDC) over the past year, categorizing exposures into low (PDC &lt; 50%), high (50–93%), and consistent (≥94%). The latter two were further subdivided into single and dual exposures for a composite LLT model where we explored effect sizes before and after inclusion of time-updated absolute C values and its 1-year coefficient of variation (CoV). We also examined the relationship between consistency of LLT/TDF use and C variability in a mixed linear model.

Results

During a median follow-up (f/u) of 4.3 years, there were 2,269 deaths. For 43% of f/u time patients were exposed to TDF, for 13% to non-statin LLT, and for 17% to statins. The hazard ratio (HR) of death for consistent use was 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32–0.45 for TDF, 0.40 (CI:0.28–0.58) for non-statin LLT, and 0.50 (CI:0.40–0.63) for statins (Fig 1). In the composite model, increasing LLT intensity was inversely associated with mortality risk but low C and high CV remained strong independent predictors of death. High HDL C values were protective (Table). The effect sizes for high LLT intensity and high HDL-CV moderately decreased when they were modeled jointly. Compared to unexposed patients, HDL CoV was significantly lower during consistent LLT exposures but higher for patients with low LLT exposure (Fig 2).

Conclusion

In PLWHA, intensity of LLT exposure is inversely related with all-cause mortality. The highest LLT intensity levels were associated with the lowest HDL-CV. This could serve as a partial explanation for the lower mortality.

Disclosures

Roger Bedimo, MD, Gilead Sciences: Advisor/Consultant|Janssen: Advisor/Consultant|Merck & Co.: Advisor/Consultant|Merck & Co.: Grant/Research Support|ViiV Healthcare: Advisor/Consultant.

Coronary Artery Calcium Score to Refine the Use of PCSK9i in Asymptomatic Individuals: A Multicohort Study

Background

The value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in the allocation of PCSK9i (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors) among individuals without clinically evident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is unknown for indications that do not require confirmed familial hypercholesterolemia. We aimed to assess the ability of CAC to stratify ASCVD risk under 3 non–familial hypercholesterolemia PCSK9i allocation paradigms.

Methods and Results

We included participants without clinically evident ASCVD from MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study, DHS (Dallas Heart Study), and HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) study. Three PCSK9i eligibility scenarios were defined: a broad scenario informed only by high low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (N=567), a restrictive one combining higher low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and presence of ≥2 additional risk factors (N=127), and a high‐risk scenario where individuals with subclinical organ damage or high estimated risk would be treated to achieve low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol <55 mg/dL (N=471). The high‐risk scenario had the highest ASCVD event rates (27.8% at 10 years). CAC=0 was observed in 35% participants in the broad scenario, 25% in the restrictive scenario, and 16% in the high‐risk scenario. In all, CAC=0 was associated with the lowest incident ASCVD rates at 5 and 10 years, and CAC burden was independently associated with ASCVD events adjusting for traditional risk factors.

Conclusions

CAC may be used to refine the allocation of PCSK9i, potentially leading to a more conservative use if CAC=0. The value of CAC testing is greater in scenarios that use low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and/or traditional risk factors to define PCSK9i eligibility (CAC=0 present in 1 of 3–4 patients), whereas its prevalence is lower when allocation is informed by presence of noncoronary subclinical organ damage.

Supranormal Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction, Stroke Volume, and Cardiovascular Risk: Findings From Population-Based Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Supranormal ejection fraction by echocardiography in clinically referred patient populations has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic implication of supranormal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)-assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)-in healthy, community-dwelling individuals is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic implication of supranormal LVEF as assessed by CMR and its inter-relationship with stroke volume among community-dwelling adults without CVD.

METHODS

Participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and DHS (Dallas Heart Study) cohorts free of CVD who underwent CMR with LVEF above the normal CMR cutoff (≥57%) were included. The association between cohort-specific LVEF categories and risk of clinically adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was assessed using adjusted Cox models. Subgroup analysis was also performed to evaluate the association of LVEF and risk of MACE among individuals stratified by left ventricular stroke volume index.

RESULTS

The study included 4,703 participants from MESA and 2,287 from DHS with 727 and 151 MACE events, respectively. In adjusted Cox models, the risk of MACE was highest among individuals in LVEF Q4 (vs Q1) in both cohorts after accounting for potential confounders (MESA: HR = 1.27 [95% CI: 1.01-1.60], P = 0.04; DHS: HR = 1.72 [95% CI: 1.05-2.79], P = 0.03). A significant interaction was found between the continuous measures of LVEF and left ventricular stroke volume index (P interaction = 0.02) such that higher LVEF was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE among individuals with low but not high stroke volume.

CONCLUSIONS

Among community-dwelling adults without CVD, LVEF in the supranormal range is associated with a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, particularly in those with lower stroke volume.

Association Between Thigh Muscle Fat Infiltration and Incident Heart Failure: The Health ABC Study

BACKGROUND

Excess adiposity is a well-known risk factor for heart failure (HF). Fat accumulation in and around the peripheral skeletal muscle may further inform risk for HF.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between intramuscular and intermuscular fat deposition and incident HF in a longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

The associations of intramuscular and intermuscular fat with incident HF were assessed using Cox models among 2,399 participants from the Health ABC (Health, Aging and Body Composition) study (70-79 years of age, 48% male, 40.2% Black) without baseline HF. Intramuscular fat was determined by bilateral thigh muscle density on computed tomography and intermuscular fat area was determined with computed tomography.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 12.2 years, there were 485 incident HF events. Higher sex-specific tertiles of intramuscular and intermuscular fat were each associated with HF risk. After multivariable adjustment for age, sex, race, education, blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, current smoking, prevalent coronary disease, and creatinine, higher intramuscular fat, but not intermuscular fat, was associated with higher risk for HF (HR: 1.34 [95% CI: 1.06-1.69]; P = 0.012, tertile 3 vs tertile 1). This association remained significant after additional adjustment for body mass index (HR: 1.32 [95% CI: 1.03-1.69]), total percent fat (HR: 1.33 [95% CI: 1.03-1.72]), visceral fat (HR: 1.30 [95% CI: 1.01-1.65]), and indexed thigh muscle strength (HR: 1.30 [95% CI: 1.03-1.64]). The association between higher intramuscular fat and HF appeared specific to higher risk of incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.53 [95% CI: 1.03-2.29]), but not with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.28 [95% CI: 0.82-1.98]).

CONCLUSIONS

Intramuscular, but not intermuscular, thigh muscle fat is independently associated with HF after adjustment for cardiometabolic risk factors and other measurements of adiposity.

Relations Between Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Derived Left Ventricular Mass, Early Repolarization, and Cardiovascular Events (from the Dallas Heart Study)

Early repolarization pattern (ERP) is associated with increased mortality in case-control studies, but the mechanism and role of left ventricular mass (LVM) remain unclear. Our objectives were to understand (1) whether ERP associates with adverse outcomes in a multiethnic population and (2) to explore the role of LVM in these associations. Participants from the Dallas Heart Study with an electrocardiogram interpretable for ERP, defined as J point elevation ≥1 mm in 2 contiguous leads, were included. Combined all-cause mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and individual components were assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling after adjustment for demographics, traditional CVD risk factors, electrocardiogram intervals, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging-derived factors. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging-defined LVM was then added to the most fully adjusted model. Of the 2,686 participants, 240 (8.9%) demonstrated ERP. Participants with ERP were more likely to be male and Black, with lower body mass index, greater left ventricular end-diastolic volumes, and LVM. Over a median follow-up of 11 years, the combined end point occurred in 326 patients. Multivariable modeling demonstrated ERP was associated with the combined end point (HR [95% CI] 1.61 [1.14 to 2.26]), all-cause mortality (1.67 [1.00 to 2.80]). However, further adjusting for LVM attenuated the associations of ERP with the primary end point (HR [95% CI] 1.22 [0.85 to 1.77]) and secondary end points of mortality (1.39 [0.80 to 2.41]) and nonfatal CVD (1.05 [0.68 to 1.64]). ERP was associated with increased mortality and nonfatal CVD events, which was attenuated after adjusting for LVM, a previously under-recognized clinical phenotype. Previous associations of ERP with adverse cardiovascular outcomes may be partially explained by greater LVM in those with ERP.

CAC for Risk Stratification Among Individuals With Hypertriglyceridemia Free of Clinical Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we sought to evaluate whether the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score can enhance current paradigms for risk stratification among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia in primary prevention. The eligibility criteria for icosapent ethyl (IPE) were used as case example.

BACKGROUND

Recent trials of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk-reduction therapies for individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD restricted enrollment to participants with diabetes or various other risk factors. These criteria were mirrored in the Food and Drug Administration product label for IPE.

METHODS

We pooled 2,345 participants with triglycerides 150 to <500 mg/dL (or >178-<500 mg/dL if not on a statin) and without clinical ASCVD from MESA, CARDIA, the Dallas Heart Study, and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. We evaluated the incidence of ASCVD events overall, by IPE eligibility (as defined in the product label), and further stratified by CAC scores (0, >0-100, >100). The number needed to treat for 5 years (NNT₅) to prevent 1 event was estimated among IPE-eligible participants, assuming a 21.8% relative risk reduction with IPE. In exploratory analyses, the NNT₅ was also estimated among noneligible participants.

RESULTS

There was marked heterogeneity in CAC burden overall (45% CAC 0; 24% CAC >100) and across IPE eligibility strata. Overall, 17% of participants were eligible for IPE and 11.9% had ASCVD events within 5 years. Among participants eligible for IPE, 38% had CAC >100, and their event rates were markedly higher (15.9% vs 7.2%) and the NNT₅ 2.2-fold lower (29 vs 64) than those of the 25% eligible participants with CAC 0. Among the 83% participants not eligible for IPE, 20% had CAC >100, and their 5-year incidence of ASCVD (13.9%) was higher than the overall incidence among IPE-eligible participants.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC can improve current risk stratification and therapy allocation paradigms among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD. Future trials of risk-reduction therapies in hypertriglyceridemia could use CAC >100 to enroll a high-risk study sample, with implications for a larger target population.

525. Atovaquone for Treatment of COVID-19 (Ataq COVID-19) Trial

Background

Our group performed an in-silico screen to identify FDA approved drugs that inhibit SARS-C0V-2 main protease (Mpro), followed by in vitro viral replication assays, and in vivo pharmacokinetic studies in mice. These studies identified atovaquone as a promising candidate for inhibiting viral replication.

Methods

Enrolled patients were randomized in a 2:1 fashion to atovaquone 1500 mg twice daily versus matched placebo. Patients received standard of care treatment including remdesivir, dexamethasone, or convalescent plasma as deemed necessary by the treating team. Patients agreed to allow collection of saliva at baseline and twice a day while hospitalized or up to 10 days. Saliva was collected and RNA extracted for viral load (VL) measurement by Real-time PCR. Our primary outcome was to examine the between group differences in log transformed VL(copies/mL) using generalized linear mixed-effect models of repeated measures from all samples. Additional analysis of Atovquone plasma concentrations were examined and correlated with viral load and body mass index (BMI).

Results

Of the 61 patients enrolled; 41 were received atovaquone and 19 placebo. Overall the population was predominately male Hispanic with a mean age of 51 years. The two groups were balanced (Table 1) with regard to age, gender, race, co-morbidities, days from onset of symptoms, baseline oxygen requirements, and receipt of COVID-19 specific standard of care treatment. A higher proportion with diabetes was noted in the Atovaquone arm. The log₁₀ VL was 5.25 copies/mL vs. 4.79 copies/mL at baseline in the atovaquone vs. placebo group. Although there was a decrease in VL over time, there was no differences between the atovaquone plus standard of care arm versus the standard of care arm (Figure 1). Additional analysis of atovaquone plasma concentration demonstrated a wide variation in atovaquone levels, inverse association between atovaquone levels and BMI (rho -0.44, p=0.03), and Day 5 concentrations and VL (rho -0.54, p=0.005).

Figure 1. Mean viral load of COVID-19 over time of atovaquone (blue) vs. placebo (red).

Table 1. Baseline characteristics

Conclusion

Although atovaquone showed promising in vitro antiviral properties for COVID-19, in this pilot study we did not detect a change in VL in patients who received atovaquone compared to placebo, possibly due to failure of patients achieve adequate drug levels.

Disclosures

Mamta K. Jain, MD, MPH, Gilead Sciences Inc. (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Research Grant or Support, Scientific Research Study Investigator; GlaxoSmithKline (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Scientific Research Study Investigator; Merck (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Scientific Research Study Investigator; Vasgene (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Scientific Research Study Investigator

Longitudinal Trajectories and Factors Associated With US County-Level Cardiovascular Mortality, 1980 to 2014

IMPORTANCE

Cardiovascular (CV) mortality has declined for more than 3 decades in the US. However, differences in declines among residents at a US county level are not well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

To identify unique county-level trajectories of CV mortality in the US during a 35-year study period and explore county-level factors that are associated with CV mortality trajectories.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This longitudinal cross-sectional analysis of CV mortality trends used data from 3133 US counties from 1980 to 2014. County-level demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and health-related risk factors were compiled. Data were analyzed from December 2019 to September 2021.

EXPOSURES

County-level characteristics, collected from 5 county-level data sets.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cardiovascular mortality data were obtained for 3133 US counties from 1980 to 2014 using age-standardized county-level mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease study. The longitudinal K-means approach was used to identify 3 distinct clusters based on underlying mortality trajectory. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate associations between county characteristics and cluster membership.

RESULTS

Among 3133 US counties (median, 49.5% [IQR, 48.9%-50.5%] men; 30.7% [IQR, 27.1%-34.4%] older than 55 years; 9.9% [IQR, 4.5%-22.7%] racial minority group [individuals self-identifying as Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, other, or multiple races/ethnicities]), CV mortality declined by 45.5% overall and by 38.4% in high-mortality strata (694 counties), by 45.0% in intermediate-mortality strata (1382 counties), and by 48.3% in low-mortality strata (1057 counties). Counties with the highest mortality in 1980 continued to demonstrate the highest mortality in 2014. Trajectory groups were regionally distributed, with high-mortality trajectory counties focused in the South and in portions of Appalachia. Low- vs high-mortality groups varied significantly in demographic (racial minority group proportion, 7.6% [IQR, 4.1%-14.5%]) vs 23.9% [IQR, 6.5%-40.8%]) and socioeconomic characteristics such as high-school education (9.4% [IQR, 7.3%-12.6%] vs 20.1% [IQR, 16.1%-23.2%]), poverty rates (11.4% [IQR, 8.8%-14.6%] vs 20.6% [IQR, 17.1%-24.4%]), and violent crime rates (161.5 [IQR, 89.0-262.4] vs 272.8 [IQR, 155.3-431.3] per 100 000 population). In multinomial logistic regression, a model incorporating demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and health characteristics accounted for 60% of the variance in the CV mortality trajectory (R2 = 0.60). Sociodemographic factors such as racial minority group proportion (odds ratio [OR], 1.70 [95% CI, 1.35-2.14]) and educational attainment (OR, 6.17 [95% CI, 4.55-8.36]) and health behaviors such as smoking (OR for high vs low, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.58-2.64]) and physical inactivity (OR, 3.74 [95% CI, 2.83-4.93]) were associated with the high-mortality trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Cardiovascular mortality declined in all subgroups during the 35-year study period; however, disparities remained unchanged during that time. Disparate trajectories were associated with social and behavioral risks. Health policy efforts across multiple domains, including structural and public health targets, may be needed to reduce existing county-level cardiovascular mortality disparities.

A Video-Enhanced, Electronic Modality for Preparticipation Examination of Young Athletes

ABSTRACT

We developed a video-enhanced preparticipation evaluation symptom questionnaire (the V-PPE), intended to help screen athletes for heart disease. We now report results of a pilot quality improvement study evaluating V-PPE's performance. In a prospective before-and-after study, approximately 5700 high-school athletes were prompted to voluntarily fill out the V-PPE questionnaire. We compared symptom frequencies on standard PPE to those on V-PPE. Of 5700 athletes, 46 (0.8%), 117 (2.0%), 33 (0.6%), and 101 (1.8%) reported syncope, angina, palpitations, and dyspnea, respectively on routine screening. Four hundred and ninety-two (8.6%) voluntarily filled out the V-PPE. Athletes were more likely to report palpitations on V-PPE than PPE, but not angina, dyspnea, syncope, or at least one symptom. Symptom frequencies on electronic PPE questionnaires are lower than recent reports suggest. Embedded videos can alter screening yield. More research is necessary to evaluate the predictive value of the V-PPE for clinically relevant cardiac pathology.

Physical Activity, Subclinical Myocardial Injury, and Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes in Black Adults

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the independent associations and interactions between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and physical activity (PA) with risk of heart failure (HF) subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

BACKGROUND

Black adults are at high risk for developing HF. Physical inactivity and subclinical myocardial injury, as assessed by hs-cTnI concentration, are independent risk factors for HF.

METHODS

Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study without prevalent HF who had hs-cTnI concentration and self-reported PA assessed at baseline were included. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the independent and joint associations and interaction between hs-cTnI concentrations and PA with risk of HFpEF and HFrEF.

RESULTS

Among 3,959 participants, 25.1% had subclinical myocardial injury (hs-cTnI ≥4 and ≥6 ng/l in women and men, respectively), and 48.2% were inactive (moderate-to-vigorous PA = 0 min/week). Over 12.0 years of follow-up, 163 and 150 participants had an incident HFpEF and HFrEF event, respectively. In adjusted analysis, higher hs-cTnI concentration (per 1-U log increase) was associated with higher risk of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.72]) and HFrEF (HR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.83]). In contrast, higher PA (per 1-U log increase) was associated with a lower risk of HFpEF (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.99]) but not HFrEF. There was a significant interaction between hs-cTnI and PA for risk of HFpEF (p interaction = 0.04) such that inactive participants with subclinical myocardial injury were at higher risk of HFpEF but active participants were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Black adults with subclinical myocardial injury, higher levels of PA were associated with attenuated risk of HFpEF.

Development and Validation of Machine Learning-Based Race-Specific Models to Predict 10-Year Risk of Heart Failure: A Multicohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) risk and the underlying risk factors vary by race. Traditional models for HF risk prediction treat race as a covariate in risk prediction and do not account for significant parameters such as cardiac biomarkers. Machine learning (ML) may offer advantages over traditional modeling techniques to develop race-specific HF risk prediction models and to elucidate important contributors of HF development across races.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 4 large, community cohort studies (ARIC [Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities], DHS [Dallas Heart Study], JHS [Jackson Heart Study], and MESA [Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis]) with adjudicated HF events. The study included participants who were >40 years of age and free of HF at baseline. Race-specific ML models for HF risk prediction were developed in the JHS cohort (for Black race-specific model) and White adults from ARIC (for White race-specific model). The models included 39 candidate variables across demographic, anthropometric, medical history, laboratory, and electrocardiographic domains. The ML models were externally validated and compared with prior established traditional and non-race-specific ML models in race-specific subgroups of the pooled MESA/DHS cohort and Black participants of ARIC. The Harrell C-index and Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino χ² tests were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively.

RESULTS

The ML models had excellent discrimination in the derivation cohorts for Black (n=4141 in JHS, C-index=0.88) and White (n=7858 in ARIC, C-index=0.89) participants. In the external validation cohorts, the race-specific ML model demonstrated adequate calibration and superior discrimination (Black individuals, C-index=0.80-0.83; White individuals, C-index=0.82) compared with established HF risk models or with non-race-specific ML models derived with race included as a covariate. Among the risk factors, natriuretic peptide levels were the most important predictor of HF risk across both races, followed by troponin levels in Black and ECG-based Cornell voltage in White individuals. Other key predictors of HF risk among Black individuals were glycemic parameters and socioeconomic factors. In contrast, prevalent cardiovascular disease and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were stronger predictors of HF risk in White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Race-specific and ML-based HF risk models that integrate clinical, laboratory, and biomarker data demonstrated superior performance compared with traditional HF risk and non-race-specific ML models. This approach identifies distinct race-specific contributors of HF.

Regional adiposity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and left ventricular strain: an analysis from the Dallas Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), high body mass index, and excess visceral adiposity are each associated with impairment in left ventricular (LV) peak circumferential strain (Ecc), an intermediate phenotype that precedes the development of clinical heart failure (HF). However, the association of regional fat distribution and CRF with Ecc independent of each other and other potential confounders is not known.

METHODS

Participants from the Dallas Heart Study Phase 2 who underwent dual energy X-ray absorptiometry assessment of regional fat distribution, CRF assessment by submaximal treadmill test, and Ecc quantification by tissue-tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance were included in the analysis. The cross-sectional associations of measures of regional adiposity, namely visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and lower-body fat (LBF) with Ecc after adjustment for CRF and other potential confounders (independent variables) were assessed using multivariable linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 1089 participants (55% female, 39% black). In the unadjusted analysis, higher VAT was associated with greater impairment in Ecc. After adjustment for baseline risk factors, CRF, parameters of LV structure and function, and other fat depots such as SAT and LBF, higher VAT remained associated with greater impairment in Ecc (β: 0.19, P = 0.002). SAT and LBF were not significantly associated with Ecc, however, CRF remained associated with Ecc in the fully adjusted model including all fat depots (β: - 0.15, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

VAT and CRF are each independently associated with impairment in Ecc, suggesting that higher VAT burden and low CRF mediate pathological cardiac remodeling through distinct mechanisms.

Association of Kidney Disease With Outcomes in COVID-19: Results From the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry

Background

Emerging evidence links acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with COVID‐19 with higher mortality and respiratory morbidity, but the relationship of AKI with cardiovascular disease outcomes has not been reported in this population. We sought to evaluate associations between chronic kidney disease (CKD), AKI, and mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID‐19.

Methods and Results

In a large multicenter registry including 8574 patients with COVID‐19 from 88 US hospitals, data were collected on baseline characteristics and serial laboratory data during index hospitalization. Primary exposure variables were CKD (categorized as no CKD, CKD, and end‐stage kidney disease) and AKI (classified into no AKI or stages 1, 2, or 3 using a modification of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guideline definition). The primary outcome was all‐cause mortality. The key secondary outcome was major adverse cardiac events, defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, new‐onset nonfatal heart failure, and nonfatal cardiogenic shock. CKD and end‐stage kidney disease were not associated with mortality or major adverse cardiac events after multivariate adjustment. In contrast, AKI was significantly associated with mortality (stage 1 hazard ratio [HR], 1.72 [95% CI, 1.46–2.03]; stage 2 HR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.52–2.20]; stage 3 HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.44–1.98]; versus no AKI) and major adverse cardiac events (stage 1 HR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.74–2.71]; stage 2 HR, 2.70 [95% CI, 2.07–3.51]; stage 3 HR, 3.06 [95% CI, 2.52–3.72]; versus no AKI).

Conclusions

This large study demonstrates a significant association between AKI and all‐cause mortality and, for the first time, major adverse cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized with COVID‐19.

Association of Circulating Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Levels With Cardiovascular Mortality: A Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies

Importance

Human genetics and studies in experimental models support a key role of monocyte-chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) in atherosclerosis. Yet, the associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular death in the general population remain largely unexplored.

Objective

To explore whether circulating levels of MCP-1 are associated with risk of incident coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.

Data Sources and Selection

Population-based cohort studies, identified through a systematic review, that have examined associations of circulating MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular end points.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Using a prespecified harmonized analysis plan, study-specific summary data were obtained from Cox regression models after excluding individuals with overt cardiovascular disease at baseline. Derived hazard ratios (HRs) were synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and unstable angina), nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death (from cardiac or cerebrovascular causes).

Results

The meta-analysis included 7 cohort studies involving 21 401 individuals (mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years; 10 012 men [46.8%]). Mean (SD) follow-up was 15.3 (4.5) years (326 392 person-years at risk). In models adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, higher MCP-1 levels at baseline were associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (HR per 1-SD increment in MCP-1 levels: 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]; P = .01), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.13]; P = .02), and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.05-1.20]; P < .001). In analyses comparing MCP-1 quartiles, these associations followed dose-response patterns. After additionally adjusting for vascular risk factors, the risk estimates were attenuated, but the associations of MCP-1 levels with cardiovascular death remained statistically significant, as did the association of MCP-1 levels in the upper quartile with coronary heart disease. There was no significant heterogeneity; the results did not change in sensitivity analyses excluding events occurring in the first 5 years after MCP-1 measurement, and the risk estimates were stable after additional adjustments for circulating levels of interleukin-6 and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

Conclusions and Relevance

Higher circulating MCP-1 levels are associated with higher long-term cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling individuals free of overt cardiovascular disease. These findings provide further support for a key role of MCP-1-signaling in cardiovascular disease.

Longitudinal Associations of Fitness and Obesity in Young Adulthood With Right Ventricular Function and Pulmonary Artery Systolic Pressure in Middle Age: The CARDIA Study

Background Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and obesity are risk factors for heart failure but their associations with right ventricular (RV) systolic function and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) are not well understood. Methods and Results Participants in the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study who underwent maximal treadmill testing at baseline and had a follow-up echocardiographic examination at year 25 were included. A subset of participants had repeat CRF and body mass index (BMI) assessment at year 20. The associations of baseline and changes in CRF and BMI on follow-up (baseline to year 20) with RV systolic function parameters (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, RV Doppler systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus), and PASP were assessed using multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. The study included 3433 participants. In adjusted analysis, higher baseline BMI but not CRF was significantly associated with higher PASP. Among RV systolic function parameters, higher baseline CRF and BMI were significantly associated with higher tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion and RV systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus. In the subgroup of participants with follow-up assessment of CRF or BMI at year 20, less decline in CRF was associated with higher RV systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus and lower PASP, while greater increase in BMI was significantly associated with higher PASP in middle age. Conclusions Higher CRF in young adulthood and less decline in CRF over time are each significantly associated with better RV systolic function. Higher baseline BMI and greater age-related increases in BMI are each significantly associated with higher PASP in middle age. These findings provide insights into possible mechanisms through which low fitness and obesity may contribute toward risk of heart failure.

Chronic Stress-Related Neural Activity Associates With Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease in a Community-Based Cohort: Data From the Washington, D.C. Cardiovascular Health and Needs Assessment

Background: Psychosocial stress correlates with cardiovascular (CV) events; however, associations between physiologic measures of stressors and CVD remain incompletely understood, especially in racial/ethnic minority populations in resource-limited neighborhoods. We examined associations between chronic stress-related neural activity, measured by amygdalar ¹⁸Fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸FDG) uptake, and aortic vascular FDG uptake (arterial inflammation measure) in a community-based cohort.

Methods: Forty participants from the Washington, DC CV Health and Needs Assessment (DC-CHNA), a study of a predominantly African-American population in resource-limited urban areas and 25 healthy volunteers underwent detailed phenotyping, including ¹⁸FDG PET/CT for assessing amygdalar activity (AmygA), vascular FDG uptake, and hematopoietic (leukopoietic) tissue activity. Mediation analysis was used to test whether the link between AmygA and vascular FDG uptake was mediated by hematopoietic activity.

Results: AmygA (1.11 ± 0.09 vs. 1.05 ± 0.09, p = 0.004) and vascular FDG uptake (1.63 ± 0.22 vs. 1.55 ± 0.17, p = 0.05) were greater in the DC-CHNA cohort compared to volunteers. Within the DC-CHNA cohort, AmygA associated with vascular FDG uptake after adjustment for Framingham score and body mass index (β = 0.41, p = 0.015). The AmygA and aortic vascular FDG uptake relationship was in part mediated by splenic (20.2%) and bone marrow (11.8%) activity.

Conclusions: AmygA, or chronic stress-related neural activity, associates with subclinical CVD risk in a community-based cohort. This may in part be mediated by the hematopoietic system. Our findings of this hypothesis-generating study are suggestive of a potential relationship between chronic stress-related neural activity and subclinical CVD in an African American community-based population. Taken together, these findings suggest a potential mechanism by which chronic psychosocial stress, such as stressors that can be experienced in adverse social conditions, promotes greater cardiovascular risk amongst resource-limited, community-based populations most impacted by cardiovascular health disparities. However, larger prospective studies examining these findings in other racially and ethnically diverse populations are necessary to confirm and extend these findings.

Cross-Sectional Associations of Objectively Measured Sedentary Time, Physical Activity, and Fitness With Cardiac Structure and Function: Findings From the Dallas Heart Study

Background

Physical inactivity and low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) are associated with higher risk of heart failure. However, the independent contributions of objectively measured sedentary time, physical activity, and CRF toward left ventricular (LV) structure and function are not well established.

Methods and Results

We included 1368 participants from the DHS (Dallas Heart Study) (age, 49 years; 40% men) free of cardiovascular disease who had physical activity and sedentary time measured by accelerometer, CRF estimated from submaximal treadmill test, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging performed using 3‐T magnetic resonance imaging. A series of linear regression models were constructed to evaluate the associations of sedentary time, moderate physical activity, vigorous physical activity, and CRF with LV parameters after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. We observed a modest correlation between CRF levels and objectively measured moderate (correlation coefficient, 0.17; P<0.001) and vigorous physical activity (correlation coefficient, 0.25; P<0.001) levels. In contrast, sedentary time was not associated with CRF. In adjusted analysis, both vigorous physical activity and higher CRF were significantly associated with greater stroke volume, LV mass, LV end‐diastolic volume, and lower arterial elastance, independent of other confounders. Sedentary time and moderate physical activity levels were not associated with LV parameters.

Conclusions

Vigorous physical activity and CRF are significantly associated with cardiac structure and function parameters. Future studies are needed to determine if interventions aimed at improving CRF levels may favorably modify cardiac structure and function.

Association of liver fibrosis risk scores with clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: findings from TOPCAT

Aims

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease leads to progressive liver fibrosis and appears to be a frequent co‐morbid disease in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). It is well known that liver fibrosis severity predicts future liver‐related morbidity and mortality, but its impact on outcomes in patients with HFpEF remains unknown. This analysis aimed to describe the prevalence of liver fibrosis, as assessed using surrogate biomarkers, in patients with HFpEF and the association of such biomarkers in predicting clinical outcomes in these patients.

Methods and results

Patients with HFpEF from TOPCAT Americas were included in the analysis. The non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) and fibrosis‐4 (FIB‐4) scores were calculated using a combination of clinical characteristics and laboratory parameters. Risk of advanced fibrosis was classified as low, intermediate, and high. For the 1423 with sufficient data, we used Cox regression analysis to test the association between the risk of fibrosis severity and the combined primary endpoint of all cardiovascular death, aborted cardiac arrest, and hospitalization for heart failure. Advanced fibrosis, as determined by high fibrosis scores, was present in 37.57% by the NFS and 8.02% by the FIB‐4. Higher risk of advanced hepatic fibrosis was associated with older age. In unadjusted models, the risk of advanced fibrosis was associated with the primary cardiovascular outcome [NFS high vs. low, hazard ratio (HR) 1.709 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.238–2.358, P = 0.0011) and FIB‐4 high vs. low, HR 1.561 (95% CI 1.139–2.140, P = 0.0056)]. After multivariable adjustment, this association was diminished [NFS high vs. low, HR 1.349 (95% CI 0.938–1.939, P = 0.1064) and FIB‐4 high vs. low, HR 1.415 (95% CI 0.995–2.010, P = 0.0531)].

Conclusions

Our study suggests that advanced liver fibrosis, as estimated by fibrosis risk scores, may not be uncommon in patients with HFpEF, and there appears to be a limited independent association between liver fibrosis risk scores and clinical outcomes related to heart failure events.

Consistent use of lipid lowering therapy in HIV infection is associated with low mortality

BACKGROUND

In people living with HIV (PLWH), statins may be disproportionately effective but remain underutilized. A large prospective trial in patients with low to moderate cardiovascular (ASCVD) risk will reveal whether they should be considered in all PLWH. But its effect size may not apply to real-world PLWH with higher ASCVD and mortality risk. Also, the clinical role of non-statin lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) and LLT adherence in this population is unknown.

METHODS

Comparative multi-level marginal structural model for all-cause mortality examining four time-updated exposure levels to LLT, antihypertensives, and aspirin in a virtual cohort of older PLWH. Incident coronary, cerebrovascular, and overall ASCVD events, serious infections, and new cancer diagnoses served as explanatory outcomes.

RESULTS

In 23,276 HIV-infected US-veterans who were followed for a median of 5.2 years after virologic suppression overall mortality was 33/1000 patient years: > 3 times higher than in the US population. Use of antihypertensives or aspirin was associated with increased mortality. Past LLT use (> 1 year ago) had no effect on mortality. LLT exposure in the past year was associated with a reduced hazard ratio (HR) of death: 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.69, p < 0.0001 for statin containing LLT and 0.71 (CI: 0.54-0.93), p = 0.03 for statin-free LLT. For consistent LLT use (> 11/12 past months) the HR of death was 0.48 (CI: 0.35-0.66) for statin-only LLT, 0.34 (CI: 0.23-0.52) for combination LLT, and 0.27 (CI: 0.15-0.48) for statin-free LLT (p < 0.0001 for all). The ASCVD risk in these patients was reduced in similar fashion. Use of statin containing LLT was also associated with reduced infection and cancer risk. Multiple contrasting subgroup analyses yielded comparable results. Confounding is unlikely to be a major contributor to our findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In PLWH, ongoing LLT use may lead to substantially lower mortality, but consistent long-term adherence may be required to reduce ASCVD risk. Consistent non-statin LLT may be highly effective and should be studied prospectively.

Effect of Anacetrapib on Cholesterol Efflux Capacity: A Substudy of the DEFINE Trial

Background

Anacetrapib is the only cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor proven to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effects on reverse cholesterol transport have not been fully elucidated. Macrophage cholesterol efflux (CEC), the initial step of reverse cholesterol transport, is inversely associated with CHD and may be affected by sex as well as haptoglobin copy number variants among patients with diabetes mellitus. We investigated the effect of anacetrapib on CEC and whether this effect is modified by sex, diabetes mellitus, and haptoglobin polymorphism.

Methods and Results

A total of 574 participants with CHD were included from the DEFINE (Determining the Efficacy and Tolerability of CETP Inhibition With Anacetrapib) trial. CEC was measured at baseline and 24‐week follow‐up using J774 macrophages, boron dipyrromethene difluoride–labeled cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B–depleted plasma. Haptoglobin copy number variant was determined using an ELISA assay. Anacetrapib increased CEC, adjusted for baseline CEC, risk factors, and changes in lipids/apolipoproteins (standard β, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.05–0.41). This CEC‐raising effect was seen only in men (P interaction=0.002); no effect modification was seen by diabetes mellitus status. Among patients with diabetes mellitus, anacetrapib increased CEC in those with the normal 1‐1 haptoglobin genotype (standard β, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.16–0.69) but not the dysfunctional 2‐1/2‐2 genotypes (P interaction=0.02).

Conclusions

Among patients with CHD, anacetrapib at a dose linked to improved CHD outcomes significantly increased CEC independent of changes in high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol or other lipids, with effect modification by sex and a novel pharmacogenomic interaction by haptoglobin genotype, suggesting a putative mechanism for reduced risk requiring validation.

Association of Body Mass Index and Age With Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: Results From the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry

BACKGROUND

Obesity may contribute to adverse outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, studies of large, broadly generalizable patient populations are lacking, and the effect of body mass index (BMI) on COVID-19 outcomes- particularly in younger adults-remains uncertain.

METHODS

We analyzed data from patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at 88 US hospitals enrolled in the American Heart Association's COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry with data collection through July 22, 2020. BMI was stratified by World Health Organization obesity class, with normal weight prespecified as the reference group.

RESULTS

Obesity, and, in particular, class III obesity, was overrepresented in the registry in comparison with the US population, with the largest differences among adults ≤50 years. Among 7606 patients, in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation occurred in 2109 (27.7%), in-hospital death in 1302 (17.1%), and mechanical ventilation in 1602 (21.1%). After multivariable adjustment, classes I to III obesity were associated with higher risks of in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.09-1.51], 1.57 [1.29-1.91], 1.80 [1.47-2.20], respectively), and class III obesity was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death (hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.00-1.58]). Overweight and class I to III obese individuals were at higher risk for mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.09-1.51], 1.54 [1.29-1.84], 1.88 [1.52-2.32], and 2.08 [1.68-2.58], respectively). Significant BMI by age interactions were seen for all primary end points (P-interaction<0.05 for each), such that the association of BMI with death or mechanical ventilation was strongest in adults ≤50 years, intermediate in adults 51 to 70 years, and weakest in adults >70 years. Severe obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m²) was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death only in those ≤50 years (hazard ratio, 1.36 [1.01-1.84]). In adjusted analyses, higher BMI was associated with dialysis initiation and with venous thromboembolism but not with major adverse cardiac events.

CONCLUSIONS

Obese patients are more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, and are at higher risk of in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation, in particular, if young (age ≤50 years). Obese patients are also at higher risk for venous thromboembolism and dialysis. These observations support clear public health messaging and rigorous adherence to COVID-19 prevention strategies in all obese individuals regardless of age.

The association of lymphotoxin-beta receptor with the subsequent diagnosis of incident gastrointestinal cancer: results from the Dallas Heart Study

Background

Lymphotoxin-beta receptor (LTβR) is an immunological protein associated with inflammation, and from preclinical studies is implicated in tumorigenesis. The epidemiological relationships with cancer are unknown, hence this study investigated their associations.

Methods

From a multiethnic population-based cohort, 3,032 participants without a prevalent cancer (a diagnosis prior to or within one year of enrollment) at baseline underwent measurement of plasma LTβR. These participants were followed for incident cancer using the Texas Cancer Registry (TCR).

Results

Over a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 178 participants developed incident cancer, of which 30 participants developed incident gastrointestinal (GI) cancer. Median plasma LTβR (1.10 vs. 1.00 ng/mL, P<0.02) levels were higher in individuals with overall incident cancer compared to those without cancer. After adjustments for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, these relationships were no longer significant. When analyses were stratified by cancer type, LTβR was positively associated with GI cancer after adjustments: HR, 95% CI per 1-standard deviation increase in concentration 2.64 (1.23-5.68), P=0.013. LTβR stratified by quartiles was significantly associated temporally with the risk of incident GI cancer, log-rank: P=0.011. The median interval to incident GI cancer diagnosis was 5.9 years.

Conclusions

Increased plasma levels of LTβR are associated with the development of GI cancer. The antecedent findings years prior to a subsequent diagnosis of incident GI cancer suggest a role for LTβR in the pathogenesis of GI cancer. Further studies are needed to determine if LTβR can serve as an immune biomarker for GI cancer, in particular hepatocellular and colorectal cancers.

Unfavorable perceived neighborhood environment associates with less routine healthcare utilization: Data from the Dallas Heart Study

Neighborhood environment perception (NEP) has been associated with health outcomes. However, little is known about how NEP relates to routine healthcare utilization. This study investigated the relationship between NEP and independent subfactors with healthcare utilization behavior, as measured by self-reported (1) usual source of healthcare and (2) time since last routine healthcare check-up. We used cross-sectional data from the Dallas Heart Study, which features a diverse, probability-based sample of Dallas County residents ages 18 to 65. We used logistic regression modeling to examine the association of self-reported NEP and routine healthcare utilization. NEP was assessed via a questionnaire exploring residents' neighborhood perceptions, including violence, the physical environment, and social cohesion. Routine healthcare utilization was assessed via self-reported responses regarding usual source of care and time since last routine healthcare check-up. The analytic sample (N = 1706) was 58% black, 27% white, 15% Hispanic, 42% male, and had a mean age of 51 (SD = 10.3). Analysis of NEP by tertile demonstrated that younger age, lower income, and lower education were associated with unfavorable overall NEP (p trend <0.05 for each). After adjustment for potential confounders, including neighborhood deprivation, health insurance, disease burden and psychosocial factors, we found that individuals with more unfavorable perception of their physical environment were more likely to report lack of a usual source of care (p = 0.013). Individuals with more unfavorable perception of the neighborhood physical environment or greater neighborhood violence reported longer time periods since last routine visit (p = 0.001, p = 0.034 respectively). There was no relationship between perceived social cohesion and healthcare utilization. Using a multi-ethnic cohort, we found that NEP significantly associates with report of a usual source of care and time since last routine check-up. Our findings suggest that public health professionals should prioritize improving NEP since it may act as barrier to routine preventive healthcare and ideal health outcomes.