Cardiovascular Disease Management With Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Cardiology Primer

Patients with type 2 diabetes face an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. This review centers on sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, a class of drugs that, according to a growing body of evidence, may have major potential for managing cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. This review presents findings from multiple clinical trials suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors can not only serve as preventive therapeutic agents but also play a role in the active management of heart failure. The discussion includes the mechanism of action of SGLT2 inhibitors, emphasizing that they enhance urinary glucose excretion, which could lead to improved glycemic control and contribute to metabolic shifts beneficial to cardiac function. Alongside these cardiometabolic effects, safety concerns and practical considerations for prescribing these agents are addressed, taking into account potential adverse effects such as genitourinary infections and diabetic ketoacidosis as well as the financial implications for patients. Despite these drawbacks, therapeutic indications for SGLT2 inhibitors continue to expand, including for kidney protection, although further research is necessary to fully understand the mechanisms driving the cardioprotective and kidney-protective effects of SGLT2 inhibitors. By synthesizing current knowledge, this review intends to inform and guide clinical decision-making, thereby enhancing cardiovascular disease outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Epidemiology and Prognostic Implications of Coronary Artery Calcium in Asymptomatic Individuals With Prediabetes: A Multicohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology and prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in individuals with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We pooled participants free of clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) from four prospective cohorts: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, Framingham Heart Study, and Jackson Heart Study. Two definitions were used for prediabetes: inclusive (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ≥100 to <126 mg/dL and hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, and no glucose-lowering medications) and restrictive (FPG ≥110 to <126 mg/dL and HbA1c ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, among participants not taking glucose-lowering medications).

RESULTS

The study included 13,376 participants (mean age 58 years; 54% women; 57% White; 27% Black). The proportions with CAC ≥100 were 17%, 22%, and 37% in those with euglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes, respectively. Over a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up time of 14.6 (interquartile range 7.8-16.4) years, individuals with prediabetes and CAC ≥100 had a higher unadjusted 10-year incidence of ASCVD (13.4%) than the overall group of those with diabetes (10.6%). In adjusted analyses, using the inclusive definition of prediabetes, compared with euglycemia, the hazard ratios (HRs) for ASCVD were 0.79 (95% CI 0.62, 1.01) for prediabetes and CAC 0, 0.70 (0.54, 0.89) for prediabetes and CAC 1-99, 1.54 (1.27, 1.88) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100, and 1.64 (1.39, 1.93) for diabetes. Using the restrictive definition, the HR for ASCVD was 1.63 (1.29, 2.06) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC ≥100 is frequent among individuals with prediabetes and identifies a high ASCVD risk subgroup in which the adjusted ASCVD risk is similar to that in individuals with diabetes.

Effect of liraglutide on thigh muscle fat and muscle composition in adults with overweight or obesity: Results from a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Excess muscle fat is observed in obesity and associated with greater burden of cardiovascular risk factors and higher risk of mortality. Liraglutide reduces total body weight and visceral fat but its effect on muscle fat and adverse muscle composition is unknown.

METHODS

This is a pre-specified secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that examined the effects of liraglutide plus a lifestyle intervention on visceral adipose tissue and ectopic fat among adults without diabetes with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 or ≥27 kg/m2 and metabolic syndrome. Participants were randomly assigned to a once-daily subcutaneous injection of liraglutide (target dose 3.0 mg) or matching placebo for 40 weeks. Body fat distribution and muscle composition was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 40-week follow-up. Muscle composition was described by the combination of thigh muscle fat and muscle volume. Treatment difference (95% confidence intervals [CI]) was calculated by least-square means adjusted for baseline thigh muscle fat. The association between changes in thigh muscle fat and changes in body weight were assessed using Spearman correlation coefficients. The effect of liraglutide versus placebo on adverse muscle composition, denoted by high thigh muscle fat and low thigh muscle volume, was explored.

RESULTS

Among the 128 participants with follow-up imaging (92.2% women, 36.7% Black), median muscle fat at baseline was 7.8%. The mean percent change in thigh muscle fat over median follow-up of 36 weeks was -2.87% among participants randomized to liraglutide (n = 73) and 0.05% in the placebo group (absolute change: -0.23% vs. 0.01%). The estimated treatment difference adjusted for baseline thigh muscle fat was -0.24% (95% CI, -0.41 to -0.06, P-value 0.009). Longitudinal change in thigh muscle fat was significantly associated with change in body weight in the placebo group but not the liraglutide group. The proportion of participants with adverse muscle composition decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% over follow-up with liraglutide, but there was no change with placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of predominantly women with overweight or obesity in the absence of diabetes, once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide was associated with a reduction in thigh muscle fat and adverse muscle composition compared with placebo. The contribution of muscle fat improvement to the cardiometabolic benefits of liraglutide requires further study.

A Phenomapping Tool and Clinical Score to Identify Low Diuretic Efficiency in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Individuals with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) have a varying response to diuretic therapy. Strategies for the early identification of low diuretic efficiency to inform decongestion therapies are lacking.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to develop and externally validate a machine learning-based phenomapping approach and integer-based diuresis score to identify patients with low diuretic efficiency.

METHODS

Participants with ADHF from ROSE-AHF, CARRESS-HF, and ATHENA-HF were pooled in the derivation cohort (n = 794). Multivariable finite-mixture model-based phenomapping was performed to identify phenogroups based on diuretic efficiency (urine output over the first 72 hours per total intravenous furosemide equivalent loop diuretic dose). Phenogroups were externally validated in other pooled ADHF trials (DOSE/ESCAPE). An integer-based diuresis score (BAN-ADHF score: blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, natriuretic peptide levels, atrial fibrillation, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension and home diuretic, and heart failure hospitalization) was developed and validated based on predictors of the diuretic efficiency phenogroups to estimate the probability of low diuretic efficiency using the pooled ADHF trials described earlier. The associations of the BAN-ADHF score with markers and symptoms of congestion, length of stay, in-hospital mortality, and global well-being were assessed using adjusted regression models.

RESULTS

Clustering identified 3 phenogroups based on diuretic efficiency: phenogroup 1 (n = 370; 47%) had lower diuretic efficiency (median: 13.1 mL/mg; Q1-Q3: 7.7-19.4 mL/mg) than phenogroups 2 (n = 290; 37%) and 3 (n = 134; 17%) (median: 17.8 mL/mg; Q1-Q3: 10.8-26.1 mL/mg and median: 35.3 mL/mg; Q1-Q3: 17.5-49.0 mL/mg, respectively) (P < 0.001). The median urine output difference in response to 80 mg intravenous twice-daily furosemide between the lowest and highest diuretic efficiency group (phenogroup 1 vs 3) was 3,520 mL/d. The BAN-ADHF score demonstrated good model performance for predicting the lowest diuretic efficiency phenogroup membership (C-index: 0.92 in DOSE/ESCAPE validation cohort) that was superior to measures of kidney function (creatinine or blood urea nitrogen), natriuretic peptide levels, or home diuretic dose (DeLong P < 0.001 for all). Net urine output in response to 80 mg intravenous twice-daily furosemide among patients with a low vs high (5 vs 20) BAN-ADHF score was 2,650 vs 660 mL per 24 hours, respectively. Participants with higher BAN-ADHF scores had significantly lower global well-being, higher natriuretic peptide levels on discharge, a longer in-hospital stay, and a higher risk of in-hospital mortality in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors developed and validated a phenomapping strategy and diuresis score for individuals with ADHF and differential response to diuretic therapy, which was associated with length of stay and mortality.

Trends and Outcomes Associated With Bariatric Surgery and Pharmacotherapies With Weight Loss Effects Among Patients With Heart Failure and Obesity

BACKGROUND

Utilization patterns of bariatric surgery among older patients with heart failure (HF), and the associations with cardiovascular outcomes, are not well known.

METHODS

Medicare beneficiaries with HF and at least class II obesity from 2013 to 2020 were identified with Medicare Provider Analysis and Review 100% inpatient files and Medicare 5% outpatient files. Patients who underwent bariatric surgery were matched to controls in a 1:2 ratio (matched on exact age, sex, race, body mass index, HF encounter year, and HF hospitalization rate pre-surgery/matched period). In an exploratory analysis, patients prescribed pharmacotherapies with weight loss effects (semaglutide, liraglutide, naltrexone-bupropion, or orlistat) were identified and matched to controls with a similar strategy in addition to HF medical therapy data. Cox models evaluated associations between weight loss therapies (as a time-varying covariate) and mortality risk and HF hospitalization rate (calculated as the rate of HF hospitalizations following index HF encounter per 100 person-months) during follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 298 101 patients with HF and body mass index ≥35 kg/m2, 2594 (0.9%) underwent bariatric surgery (45% men; mean age, 56.2 years; mean body mass index, 51.5 kg/m2). In propensity-matched analyses over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, bariatric surgery was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.49-0.63]; P<0.001), greater reduction in HF hospitalization rate (rate ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.67-0.77]; P<0.001), and lower atrial fibrillation risk (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.65-0.93]; P=0.006). Use of pharmacotherapies with weight loss effects was low (4.8%), with 96.3% prescribed GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) agonists (semaglutide, 23.6%; liraglutide, 72.7%). In propensity-matched analysis over a median follow-up of 2.8 years, patients receiving pharmacotherapies with weight loss effects (versus matched controls) had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.71-0.95]; P=0.007) and HF hospitalization rate (rate ratio, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.77-0.99]; P=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Bariatric surgery and pharmacotherapies with weight loss effects are associated with a lower risk of adverse outcomes among older patients with HF and obesity; however, overall utilization remains low.

Optimal Screening for Predicting and Preventing the Risk of Heart Failure Among Adults With Diabetes Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Pooled Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal approach to identify individuals with diabetes who are at a high risk for developing heart failure (HF) to inform implementation of preventive therapies is unknown, especially in those without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS

Adults with diabetes and no HF at baseline from 7 community-based cohorts were included. Participants without ASCVD who were at high risk for developing HF were identified using 1-step screening strategies: risk score (WATCH-DM [Weight, Age, Hypertension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes Control, QRS Duration, MI, and CABG] ≥12), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ≥125 pg/mL), hs-cTn (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥14 ng/L; hs-cTnI ≥31 ng/L), and echocardiography-based diabetic cardiomyopathy (echo-DbCM; left atrial enlargement, left ventricular hypertrophy, or diastolic dysfunction). High-risk participants were also identified using 2-step screening strategies with a second test to identify residual risk among those deemed low risk by the first test: WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP/hs-cTn, NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM. Across screening strategies, the proportion of HF events identified, 5-year number needed to treat and number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor) among high-risk participants, and cost of screening were estimated.

RESULTS

The initial study cohort included 6293 participants (48.2% women), of whom 77.7% without prevalent ASCVD were evaluated with different HF screening strategies. At 5-year follow-up, 6.2% of participants without ASCVD developed incident HF. The 5-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i among participants without ASCVD was 43 (95% CI, 29-72). In the cohort without ASCVD, high-risk participants identified using 1-step screening strategies had a low 5-year number needed to treat (22 for NT-proBNP to 37 for echo-DbCM). However, a substantial proportion of HF events occurred among participants identified as low risk using 1-step screening approaches (29% for echo-DbCM to 47% for hs-cTn). Two-step screening strategies captured most HF events (75-89%) in the high-risk subgroup with a comparable 5-year number needed to treat as the 1-step screening approaches (30-32). The 5-year number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event was similar across 2-step screening strategies (45-61). However, the number of tests and associated costs were lowest for WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP ($1061) compared with other 2-step screening strategies (NT-proBNP/hs-cTn: $2894; NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM: $16 358).

CONCLUSIONS

Selective NT-proBNP testing based on the WATCH-DM score efficiently identified a high-risk primary prevention population with diabetes expected to derive marked absolute benefits from SGLT2i to prevent HF.

Prevalence and Predictors of Subclinical Cardiomyopathy in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in a Health System

INTRODUCTION

Diabetic cardiomyopathy (DbCM) is characterized by subclinical abnormalities in cardiac structure/function and is associated with a higher risk of overt heart failure (HF). However, there are limited data on optimal strategies to identify individuals with DbCM in contemporary health systems. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of DbCM in a health system using existing data from the electronic health record (EHR).

METHODS

Adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with available data on HF risk in a single-center EHR were included. The presence of DbCM was defined using different definitions: (1) least restrictive: ≥1 echocardiographic abnormality (left atrial enlargement, left ventricle hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction); (2) intermediate restrictive: ≥2 echocardiographic abnormalities; (3) most restrictive: 3 echocardiographic abnormalities. DbCM prevalence was compared across age, sex, race, and ethnicity-based subgroups, with differences assessed using the chi-squared test. Adjusted logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate significant predictors of DbCM.

RESULTS

Among 1921 individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the prevalence of DbCM in the overall cohort was 8.7% and 64.4% in the most and least restrictive definitions, respectively. Across all definitions, older age and Hispanic ethnicity were associated with a higher proportion of DbCM. Females had a higher prevalence than males only in the most restrictive definition. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, higher systolic blood pressure, higher creatinine, and longer QRS duration were associated with a higher risk of DbCM across all definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this single-center, EHR cohort, the prevalence of DbCM varies from 9% to 64%, with a higher prevalence with older age and Hispanic ethnicity.

Coronary Atherosclerosis Across the Glycemic Spectrum Among Asymptomatic Adults: The Miami Heart Study at Baptist Health South Florida

BACKGROUND

The contemporary burden and characteristics of coronary atherosclerosis, assessed using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), is unknown among asymptomatic adults with diabetes and prediabetes in the United States. The pooled cohort equations and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score stratify atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, but their association with CCTA findings across glycemic categories is not well established.

METHODS

Asymptomatic adults without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease enrolled in the Miami Heart Study were included. Participants underwent CAC and CCTA testing and were classified into glycemic categories. Prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis (any plaque, noncalcified plaque, plaque with ≥1 high-risk feature, maximal stenosis ≥50%) assessed by CCTA was described across glycemic categories and further stratified by pooled cohort equations-estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk and CAC score. Adjusted logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between glycemic categories and coronary outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 2352 participants (49.5% women), the prevalence of euglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes was 63%, 30%, and 7%, respectively. Coronary plaque was more commonly present across worsening glycemic categories (euglycemia, 43%; prediabetes, 58%; diabetes, 69%), and similar pattern was observed for other coronary outcomes. In adjusted analyses, compared with euglycemia, prediabetes and diabetes were each associated with higher odds of any coronary plaque (OR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.05-1.60] and 1.75 [1.17-2.61], respectively), noncalcified plaque (OR, 1.47 [1.19-1.81] and 1.99 [1.38-2.87], respectively), and plaque with ≥1 high-risk feature (OR, 1.65 [1.14-2.39] and 2.53 [1.48-4.33], respectively). Diabetes was associated with stenosis ≥50% (OR, 3.01 [1.79-5.08]; reference=euglycemia). Among participants with diabetes and estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk <5%, 46% had coronary plaque and 10% had stenosis ≥50%. Among participants with diabetes and CAC=0, 30% had coronary plaque and 3% had stenosis ≥50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Among asymptomatic adults, worse glycemic status is associated with higher prevalence and extent of coronary atherosclerosis, high-risk plaque, and stenosis. In diabetes, CAC was more closely associated with CCTA findings and informative in a larger population than the pooled cohort equations.

Ultrasound simulation training to meet the 2021 Royal College of Radiologists' curriculum for radiology trainees: South East London experience

AIM

To enhance ultrasound teaching delivery to radiology trainees using a simulation course matched to the 2021 Royal College of Radiologists (RCR) curriculum.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

An ultrasound simulation training course was designed for specialty trainees (ST) 1 in radiology, which was based on the 2021 RCR curriculum and covered the top ultrasound training priorities. The course was piloted initially on two occasions in a 1-day format to the August 2021 and the March 2022 ST1 intake trainees. Based on the feedback, a comprehensive 4-day course was developed and delivered between October and December 2022 for the August 2022 ST1 intake, funded by Health Education England. The outcomes measured were subjective trainee feedback using numerical scores and free text.

RESULTS

All King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust radiology ST1 trainees from the August 2021 to the August 2022 intake participated in ultrasound simulation training. The training matched the RCR curriculum and increased the trainees' confidence and competency in medical ultrasound.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasound simulation training can be successfully delivered to ST1 trainees to match the 2021 RCR curriculum and enhance training in medical ultrasound for radiologists.

Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Heart Failure in People with Diabetes: A Consensus Report from Diabetes Technology Society

Diabetes Technology Society assembled a panel of clinician experts in diabetology, cardiology, clinical chemistry, nephrology, and primary care to review the current evidence on biomarker screening of people with diabetes (PWD) for heart failure (HF), who are, by definition, at risk for HF (Stage A HF). This consensus report reviews features of HF in PWD from the perspectives of 1) epidemiology, 2) classification of stages, 3) pathophysiology, 4) biomarkers for diagnosing, 5) biomarker assays, 6) diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers, 7) benefits of biomarker screening, 8) consensus recommendations for biomarker screening, 9) stratification of Stage B HF, 10) echocardiographic screening, 11) management of Stage A and Stage B HF, and 12) future directions. The Diabetes Technology Society panel recommends 1) biomarker screening with one of two circulating natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide or N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide), 2) beginning screening five years following diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and at the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D), 3) beginning routine screening no earlier than at age 30 years for T1D (irrespective of age of diagnosis) and at any age for T2D, 4) screening annually, and 5) testing any time of day. The panel also recommends that an abnormal biomarker test defines asymptomatic preclinical HF (Stage B HF). This diagnosis requires follow-up using transthoracic echocardiography for classification into one of four subcategories of Stage B HF, corresponding to risk of progression to symptomatic clinical HF (Stage C HF). These recommendations will allow identification and management of Stage A and Stage B HF in PWD to prevent progression to Stage C HF or advanced HF (Stage D HF).

Predicting and preventing heart failure in type 2 diabetes

The burden of heart failure among people with type 2 diabetes is increasing globally. People with comorbid type 2 diabetes and heart failure often have worse outcomes than those with only one of these conditions-eg, higher hospitalisation and mortality rates. Therefore, it is essential to implement optimal heart failure prevention strategies for people with type 2 diabetes. A detailed understanding of the pathophysiology underlying the occurrence of heart failure in type 2 diabetes can aid clinicians in identifying relevant risk factors and lead to early interventions that can help prevent heart failure. In this Review, we discuss the pathophysiology and risk factors of heart failure in type 2 diabetes. We also review the risk assessment tools for predicting heart failure incidence in people with type 2 diabetes as well as the data from clinical trials that have assessed the efficacy of lifestyle and pharmacological interventions. Finally, we discuss the potential challenges in implementing new management approaches and offer pragmatic recommendations to help overcome these challenges.

Effect of Canagliflozin on Heart Failure Hospitalization in Diabetes According to Baseline Heart Failure Risk

BACKGROUND

In the CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) program, canagliflozin reduced the risk of heart failure (HF) hospitalization among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate heterogeneity in absolute and relative treatment effects of canagliflozin on HF hospitalization according to baseline HF risk as assessed by diabetes-specific HF risk scores (WATCH-DM [Weight (body mass index), Age, hyperTension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes control (fasting plasma glucose) and QRS Duration, MI and CABG] and TRS-HF_DM [TIMI Risk Score for HF in Diabetes]).

METHODS

Participants in the CANVAS trial were categorized into low, medium, and high risk for HF using the WATCH-DM score (for participants without prevalent HF) and the TRS-HF_DM score (for all participants). The outcome of interest was time to first HF hospitalization. The treatment effect of canagliflozin vs placebo for HF hospitalization was compared across risk strata.

RESULTS

Among 10,137 participants with available HF data, 1,446 (14.3%) had HF at baseline. Among participants without baseline HF, WATCH-DM risk category did not modify the treatment effect of canagliflozin (vs placebo) on HF hospitalization (P interaction = 0.56). However, the absolute and relative risk reduction with canagliflozin was numerically greater in the high-risk group (cumulative incidence, canagliflozin vs placebo: 8.1% vs 12.7%; HR: 0.62 [95% CI: 0.37-0.93]; P = 0.03; number needed to treat: 22) than in the low- and intermediate-risk groups. When overall study participants were categorized according to the TRS-HF_DM score, a statistically significant difference in the treatment effect of canagliflozin across risk strata was observed (P interaction = 0.04). Canagliflozin significantly reduced the risk of HF hospitalization by 39% in the high-risk group (HR: 0.61 [95% CI: 0.48-0.78]; P < 0.001; number needed to treat: 20) but not in the intermediate- or low-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among participants with T2DM, the WATCH-DM and TRS-HF_DM can reliably identify those at high risk for HF hospitalization and most likely to benefit from canagliflozin.

Longitudinal Changes in Cardiac Troponin and Risk of Heart Failure Among Black Adults

BACKGROUND

Among Black adults, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) is associated with heart failure (HF) risk. The association of longitudinal changes in hs-cTnI with risk of incident HF, HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF, respectively), among Black adults is not well-established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included Black participants from the Jackson Heart Study with available hs-cTnI data at visits 1 (2000-2004) and 2 (2005-2008) and no history of cardiovascular disease. Cox models were used to evaluate associations of categories of longitudinal change in hs-cTnI with incident HF risk. Among 2423 participants, 11.6% had incident elevation in hs-cTnI at visit 2, and 16.9% had stable or improved elevation (≤50% increase in hs-cTnI), and 4.0% had worsened hs-cTnI elevation (>50% increase). Over a median follow-up of 12.0 years, there were 139 incident HF hospitalizations (64 HFrEF, 58 HFpEF). Compared with participants without an elevated hs-cTnI, those with incident, stable or improved, or worsened hs-cTnI elevation had higher HF risk (adjusted hazard ratio 3.20 [95% confidence interval, 1.92-5.33]; adjusted hazard ratio 2.40, [95% confidence interval, 1.47-3.92]; and adjusted hazard ratio 8.10, [95% confidence interval, 4.74-13.83], respectively). Similar patterns of association were observed for risk of HFrEF and HFpEF.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Black adults, an increase in hs-cTnI levels on follow-up was associated with a higher HF risk.

LAY SUMMARY

The present study included 2423 Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study with available biomarkers of cardiac injury and no history of cardiovascular disease at visits 1 and 2. The majority of participants did not have evidence of cardiac injury at both visits (67.5%), 11.6% had evidence of cardiac injury only on follow-up, 14.5% had stable elevations, 4.0% had worsened elevations, and 2.4% had improved elevations of cardiac injury biomarkers during follow-up. Compared with participants without evidence of cardiac injury, those with new, stable, and worsened levels of cardiac injury had a higher risk of developing heart failure.

TWEET

Among Black adults, persistent or worsening subclinical myocardial injury is associated with an elevated risk of HF.

Association of Baseline and Longitudinal Changes in Frailty Burden and Risk of Heart Failure in Type 2 Diabetes-Findings from the Look AHEAD Trial

BACKGROUND

Individuals with diabetes have a high frailty burden and increased risk of heart failure (HF). In this study, we evaluated the association of baseline and longitudinal changes in frailty with risk of HF and its subtypes: HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS

Participants (age: 45-76 years) of the Look AHEAD trial without prevalent HF were included. The frailty index (FI) was used to assess frailty burden using a 35-variable deficit model. The association between baseline and longitudinal changes (1- and 4-year follow-up) in FI with risk of overall HF, HFpEF (ejection fraction [EF] ≥ 50%), and HFrEF (EF < 50%) independent of other risk factors and cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using adjusted Cox models.

RESULTS

The study included 5 100 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus, of which 257 developed HF. In adjusted analysis, higher frailty burden was significantly associated with a greater risk of overall HF. Among HF subtypes, higher baseline FI was significantly associated with risk of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] per 1-SD higher FI: 1.37 [1.15-1.63]) but not HFrEF (HR [95% CI]: 1.19 [0.96-1.46]) after adjustment for potential confounders, including traditional HF risk factors. Among participants with repeat measures of FI at 1- and 4-year follow-up, an increase in frailty burden was associated with a higher risk of HFpEF (HR [95% CI] per 1-SD increase in FI at 4 years: 1.78 [1.35-2.34]) but not HFrEF after adjustment for other confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, higher baseline frailty and worsening frailty burden over time were independently associated with higher risk of HF, particularly HFpEF after adjustment for other confounders.

Optimal cardiometabolic health and risk of heart failure in type 2 diabetes: an analysis from the Look AHEAD trial

AIMS

To evaluate the contribution of baseline and longitudinal changes in cardiometabolic health (CMH) towards heart failure (HF) risk among adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants of the Look AHEAD trial with T2D and without prevalent HF were included. Adjusted Cox models were used to create a CMH score incorporating target levels of parameters weighted based on relative risk for HF. The associations of baseline and changes in the CMH score with risk of overall HF, HF with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were assessed using Cox models. Among the 5080 participants, 257 incident HF events occurred over 12.4 years of follow-up. The CMH score included 2 points each for target levels of waist circumference, glomerular filtration rate, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and 1 point each for blood pressure and glycated haemoglobin at target. High baseline CMH score (6-8) was significantly associated with lower overall HF risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], ref = low score (0-3): 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.47) with similar associations observed for HFpEF and HFrEF. Improvement in CMH was significantly associated with lower risk of overall HF (adjusted HR per 1-unit increase in score at 4 years: 0.80, 95% CI 0.70-0.91). In the ACCORD validation cohort, the baseline CMH score performed well for predicting HF risk with adequate discrimination (C-index 0.70), calibration (chi-square 5.53, p = 0.70), and risk stratification (adjusted HR [high (6-8) vs. low score (0-3)]: 0.35, 95% CI 0.26-0.46). In the Look AHEAD subgroup with available biomarker data, incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide to the baseline CMH score improved model discrimination (C-index 0.79) and risk stratification (adjusted HR [high (8-10) vs. low score (0-4)]: 0.18, 95% CI 0.09-0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving target levels of more CMH parameters at baseline and sustained improvements were associated with lower HF risk in T2D.

Sex, lean body mass, and cardiac performance

Lower lean body mass associated with reduced cardiovascular reserve at rest and peak exercise in women but not men may underlie sex differences in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (Diaz-Canestro et al.).

Inequalities in accessing quality healthcare, does insurance play a role? retrospective analysis of aortic emergencies from national inpatient sample 2019

Background

Aortic emergencies, dissection and rupture, are rare but catastrophic entities, with the cornerstone to survival being prompt diagnosis and treatment. Insurance status often limits access to healthcare, and our study aims to determine if it plays a role in the outcomes of aortic emergencies.

Method

A retrospective analysis of the 2019 Nationwide Inpatient Sample was conducted to identify hospitalization (Age ≥18 & non-elective) with aortic dissection and ruptured aortic aneurysms using ICD-10 codes. Discharge-level weight analysis was used to produce a national estimate. Variables were screened with univariate regression, and intermediate and co-linear variables were screened-out before a multivariable regression analysis model was built and performed to calculate the odds ratio.

Results

A total of 19,685 (0.06%) hospitalizations are identified for aortic emergencies (14965 dissections & 4720 ruptured aneurysms). The mean age was 58.56, 62.7% were males, and ethnic distribution was 65.1% white, 19.5% blacks, 7.6% Hispanics, and others.

11.4% of the hospitalizations underwent diagnostic imaging with either CTA/MRA/TEE/Aortography within 24 hours. Hypotension/shock was present in 32% of these hospitalizations and was a risk factor for mortality OR 3.21 (p&lt;0.00), increasing LOS by an average of 5.1 days and resource utilization by 156,000$. Another risk factor for mortality was stroke/TIA (OR-1.76, p&lt;0.00), increasing LOS and resource utilization by 3.1 days and 80,662$, respectively.

3220 hospitalizations (16.4%) did not survive the course, and the mortality rate in uninsured, Medicare, and Medicaid was 17%, 20%,9% compared with 12% in privately insured. On crude analysis, uninsured and medicare patients appeared to have higher odds of mortality [OR 1.50, p&lt;0.04, and OR 1.83 p-value &lt;0.002 respectively], however upon adjusting for confounders, only uninsured patients showed statistically significant difference (OR 2.13, p&lt;0.002). Similar results were corroborated on analyzing hospitalizations for aortic dissection; however, insurance status did not influence mortality in a ruptured aneurysm.

When comparing hospitalization of median household income of ≥79,000$ with household of median income of 59,000–78,999 $, 46,000–58,999 $ and &lt;46,000$ had higher odds of mortality (OR-1.38, p&lt;0.04), (OR-1.44, p&lt;0.02) and (OR-1.44, p&lt;0.03) respectively. Of all the insurance types, a statistically significant difference compared with private insurance, Medicaid on average, had 2.8 more days and incurred an additional 62,912$ in resource utilization (p&lt;0.00).

Conclusion

Inequalities in accessing healthcare, median household income, and insurance status are risk factors for mortality in aortic emergencies. Efforts are needed to bridge the gap in this particular facet of social determinants of health to find a sustainable and equitable solution for quality healthcare for aall regardless of their insurance status.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Validation of the WATCH-DM and TRS-HFDM Risk Scores to Predict the Risk of Incident Hospitalization for Heart Failure Among Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Multicohort Analysis

Background The WATCH-DM (weight [body mass index], age, hypertension, creatinine, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes control [fasting plasma glucose], ECG QRS duration, myocardial infarction, and coronary artery bypass grafting) and TRS-HF_DM (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] risk score for heart failure in diabetes) risk scores were developed to predict risk of heart failure (HF) among individuals with type 2 diabetes. WATCH-DM was developed to predict incident HF, whereas TRS-HF_DM predicts HF hospitalization among patients with and without a prior HF history. We evaluated the model performance of both scores to predict incident HF events among patients with type 2 diabetes and no history of HF hospitalization across different cohorts and clinical settings with varying baseline risk. Methods and Results Incident HF risk was estimated by the integer-based WATCH-DM and TRS-HF_DM scores in participants with type 2 diabetes free of baseline HF from 2 randomized clinical trials (TECOS [Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes With Sitagliptin], N=12 028; and Look AHEAD [Look Action for Health in Diabetes] trial, N=4867). The integer-based WATCH-DM score was also validated in electronic health record data from a single large health care system (N=7475). Model discrimination was assessed by the Harrell concordance index and calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino statistic. HF incidence rate was 7.5, 3.9, and 4.1 per 1000 person-years in the TECOS, Look AHEAD trial, and electronic health record cohorts, respectively. Integer-based WATCH-DM and TRS-HF_DM scores had similar discrimination and calibration for predicting 5-year HF risk in the Look AHEAD trial cohort (concordance indexes=0.70; Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P>0.30 for both). Both scores had lower discrimination and underpredicted HF risk in the TECOS cohort (concordance indexes=0.65 and 0.66, respectively; Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P<0.001 for both). In the electronic health record cohort, the integer-based WATCH-DM score demonstrated a concordance index of 0.73 with adequate calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino P=0.96). TRS-HF_DM score could not be validated in the electronic health record because of unavailability of data on urine albumin/creatinine ratio in most patients in the contemporary clinical practice. Conclusions The WATCH-DM and TRS-HF_DM risk scores can discriminate risk of HF among intermediate-risk populations with type 2 diabetes.

Implementation of Cardiometabolic Centers and Training Programs

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Type 2 diabetes is frequently accompanied by obesity, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease, which collectively contribute to the high burden of cardiometabolic disease. This review discusses cardiometabolic disease management, strategies to implement cardiometabolic centers to deliver care, and dedicated programs to train the next generation of cardiometabolic experts.

RECENT FINDINGS

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and a nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist have demonstrated beneficial effects across cardiometabolic conditions. However, utilization of effective pharmacotherapies is low in clinical practice, in part due to clinical inertia and traditional sharp delineation in clinical responsibilities of specialists. Multidisciplinary clinics and population-health models can provide comprehensive care but require investment in physical and information technology infrastructure as well as in training and accreditation. Post-internal medicine residency cardiometabolic health training programs have been proposed. Implementing cardiometabolic centers in health systems involves reshaping current practices. Training programs focused on cardiometabolic health are needed to address the growing burden of disease and specific training needs in this ever-expanding area.

Association of readmission penalty amount with subsequent 30-day risk standardized readmission and mortality rates among patients hospitalized with heart failure: An analysis of get with the guidelines - heart failure participating centers

BACKGROUND

The Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program penalizes hospitals with excess 30-day risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRR) for heart failure (HF). The association of financial penalty amount with subsequent short-term clinical outcomes is unknown.

METHODS

Patients admitted to American Heart Association Get With The Guidelines-HF registry participating centers from October 1, 2012 through December 1, 2015 who had Medicare-linked data were included. October 2012 hospital-specific penalty amounts were calculated based on diagnosis-related group payments and excess readmission ratios. Adjusted Cox models were created to evaluate the association of penalty amount categories (non-penalized: 0%; low-penalized: >0%-<0.50%; mid-penalized ≥0.50%-<0.99%; high-penalized ≥0.99%) with subsequent 30-day RSRR and risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMR). Trends in post-discharge 30-day RSRR and RSMR from 2012 to 2015 were analyzed across hospitals stratified by penalty amount categories.

RESULTS

The present study included 61,329 patients who were admitted across 262 hospitals. Compared with patients admitted to non-penalized hospitals (36.3%), those admitted to increasingly penalized hospitals were more likely to have higher 30-day RSRR (low-penalized [43.9%]: HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04-1.16]; mid-penalized [12.0%]: HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.99-1.16]; high-penalized [7.9%]: HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.12-1.35]) but not 30-day RSMR. Over time, 30-day RSRR and RSMR did not meaningfully change across penalized versus non-penalized hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Financial penalties based on 30-day RSRR are not associated with declines in 30-day RSRR or RSMR from 2012 to 2015 among patients hospitalized with HF. Financially penalizing hospitals based on current Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program metrics may not incentivize improvements in short-term clinical outcomes for HF.

Cost-Related Medication Nonadherence in Adults With Diabetes in the United States: The National Health Interview Survey 2013-2018

OBJECTIVE

Health-related expenditures resulting from diabetes are rising in the U.S. Medication nonadherence is associated with worse health outcomes among adults with diabetes. We sought to examine the extent of reported cost-related medication nonadherence (CRN) in individuals with diabetes in the U.S.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied adults age ≥18 years with self-reported diabetes from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) (2013-2018), a U.S. nationally representative survey. Adults reporting skipping doses, taking less medication, or delaying filling a prescription to save money in the past year were considered to have experienced CRN. The weighted prevalence of CRN was estimated overall and by age subgroups (<65 and ≥65 years). Logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic characteristics independently associated with CRN.

RESULTS

Of the 20,326 NHIS participants with diabetes, 17.6% (weighted 2.3 million) of those age <65 years reported CRN, compared with 6.9% (weighted 0.7 million) among those age ≥65 years. Financial hardship from medical bills, lack of insurance, low income, high comorbidity burden, and female sex were independently associated with CRN across age groups. Lack of insurance, duration of diabetes, current smoking, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were associated with higher odds of reporting CRN among the nonelderly but not among the elderly. Among the elderly, insulin use significantly increased the odds of reporting CRN (odds ratio 1.51; 95% CI 1.18, 1.92).

CONCLUSIONS

In the U.S., one in six nonelderly and one in 14 elderly adults with diabetes reported CRN. Removing financial barriers to accessing medications may improve medication adherence among these patients, with the potential to improve their outcomes.

Social determinants of health and obesity: Findings from a national study of US adults

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the association between social determinants of health (SDOH) burden and overweight/obesity in a nationally representative sample of adults in the United States.

METHODS

Data for 161,795 adults aged ≥18 years from the 2013 to 2017 National Health Interview Survey were used. A total of 38 SDOH were aggregated to create a cumulative SDOH score, which was divided into quartiles (Q1-Q4) to denote levels of SDOH burden. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was examined across SDOH quartiles in the total population and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between SDOH quartiles and overweight/obesity, adjusting for relevant covariates.

RESULTS

There was a graded increase in obesity prevalence with increasing SDOH burden. At nearly each quartile, overweight and obesity rates were higher for middle-aged and non-Hispanic Black adults compared with their counterparts; additional differences were observed by sex. In fully adjusted models, SDOH-Q4 was associated with 15%, 50%, and 70% higher relative prevalence of overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and obesity class 3, respectively, relative to SDOH-Q1.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative social disadvantage, denoted by higher SDOH burden, was associated with increased odds of obesity, independent of clinical and demographic factors.

Diabetes Status Modifies the Association Between Different Measures of Obesity and Heart Failure Risk Among Older Adults: A Pooled Analysis of Community-Based NHLBI Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Obesity and diabetes are associated with a higher risk of heart failure (HF). The interrelationships between different measures of adiposity-overall obesity, central obesity, fat mass (FM)-and diabetes status for HF risk are not well-established.

METHODS

Participant-level data from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; visit 5) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study; visit 1) cohorts were obtained from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center, harmonized, and pooled for the present analysis, excluding individuals with prevalent HF. FM was estimated in all participants using established anthropometric prediction equations additionally validated using the bioelectrical impedance-based FM in the ARIC subgroup. Incident HF events on follow-up were captured across both cohorts using similar adjudication methods. Multivariable-adjusted Fine-Gray models were created to evaluate the associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and FM with risk of HF in the overall cohort as well as among those with versus without diabetes at baseline. The population attributable risk of overall obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m²), abdominal obesity (WC>88 and 102 cm in women and men, respectively), and high FM (above sex-specific median) for incident HF was evaluated among participants with and without diabetes.

RESULTS

The study included 10 387 participants (52.9% ARIC; 25.1% diabetes; median age, 74 years). The correlation between predicted and bioelectrical impedance-based FM was high (R²=0.90; n=5038). During a 5-year follow-up, 447 participants developed HF (4.3%). Higher levels of each adiposity measure were significantly associated with higher HF risk (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 SD higher BMI=1.15 [1.05, 1.27], WC=1.22 [1.10, 1.36]; FM=1.13 [1.02, 1.25]). A significant interaction was noted between diabetes status and measures of BMI (P interaction=0.04) and WC (P interaction=0.004) for the risk of HF. In stratified analysis, higher measures of each adiposity parameter were significantly associated with higher HF risk in individuals with diabetes (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 SD higher BMI=1.29 [1.14-1.47]; WC=1.48 [1.29-1.70]; FM=1.25 [1.09-1.43]) but not those without diabetes, including participants with prediabetes and euglycemia. The population attributable risk percentage of overall obesity, abdominal obesity, and high FM for incident HF was higher among participants with diabetes (12.8%, 29.9%, and 13.7%, respectively) versus those without diabetes (≤1% for each).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI, WC, and FM are strongly associated with greater risk of HF among older adults, particularly among those with prevalent diabetes.

Incorporation of natriuretic peptides with clinical risk scores to predict heart failure among individuals with dysglycaemia

AIMS

To evaluate the performance of the WATCH-DM risk score, a clinical risk score for heart failure (HF), in patients with dysglycaemia and in combination with natriuretic peptides (NPs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Adults with diabetes/pre-diabetes free of HF at baseline from four cohort studies (ARIC, CHS, FHS, and MESA) were included. The machine learning- [WATCH-DM(ml)] and integer-based [WATCH-DM(i)] scores were used to estimate the 5-year risk of incident HF. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration by the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) statistic. Improvement in model performance with the addition of NP levels was assessed by C-index and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). Of the 8938 participants included, 3554 (39.8%) had diabetes and 432 (4.8%) developed HF within 5 years. The WATCH-DM(ml) and WATCH-DM(i) scores demonstrated high discrimination for predicting HF risk among individuals with dysglycaemia (C-indices = 0.80 and 0.71, respectively), with no evidence of miscalibration (GND P ≥0.10). The C-index of elevated NP levels alone for predicting incident HF among individuals with dysglycaemia was significantly higher among participants with low/intermediate (<13) vs. high (≥13) WATCH-DM(i) scores [0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.68-0.74) vs. 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.66)]. When NP levels were combined with the WATCH-DM(i) score, HF risk discrimination improvement and NRI varied across the spectrum of risk with greater improvement observed at low/intermediate risk [WATCH-DM(i) <13] vs. high risk [WATCH-DM(i) ≥13] (C-index = 0.73 vs. 0.71; NRI = 0.45 vs. 0.17).

CONCLUSION

The WATCH-DM risk score can accurately predict incident HF risk in community-based individuals with dysglycaemia. The addition of NP levels is associated with greater improvement in the HF risk prediction performance among individuals with low/intermediate risk than those with high risk.

Prognostic Value of Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The FIT (Henry Ford Exercise Testing) Project

PURPOSE

We conducted this study to investigate the association of cardiorespiratory fitness and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease.

METHODS

We studied a retrospective cohort of patients from the Henry Ford Health System who underwent clinically indicated exercise stress testing with baseline cardiorespiratory fitness and estimated glomerular filtration rate measurement. Cardiorespiratory fitness was expressed as metabolic equivalents of task, and kidney function was categorized into stages according to estimated glomerular filtration rate. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between metabolic equivalents of task and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-5. Discrimination of mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, while reclassification was evaluated using net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

Among 50,121 participants, the mean age was 55 ± 12.6 years; 47.5% were women, 64.5% were white, and 6877 (13.7%) participants had chronic kidney disease stage 3-5. Over a median follow-up of 6.7 years, 6308 participants died (12.6%). Each 1-unit higher metabolic equivalents of task was associated with a significant 15% reduction in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.87). Metabolic equivalents of task improved discriminatory ability of mortality prediction when added to traditional risk factors and estimated glomerular filtration rate (area under the curve 0.7996; 95% CI, 0.789-0.810 vs 0.759; 95% CI, 0.748-0.770, respectively; P < .001). The addition of metabolic equivalents of task to traditional risk factors resulted in significant reclassification (6% for events, 5% for non-events: NRI = 0.13, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiorespiratory fitness improves mortality risk prediction among patients with chronic kidney disease. Cardiorespiratory fitness provides incremental prognostic information when added to traditional risk factors and may help guide treatment options among patients with renal dysfunction.

CAC for Risk Stratification Among Individuals With Hypertriglyceridemia Free of Clinical Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we sought to evaluate whether the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score can enhance current paradigms for risk stratification among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia in primary prevention. The eligibility criteria for icosapent ethyl (IPE) were used as case example.

BACKGROUND

Recent trials of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk-reduction therapies for individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD restricted enrollment to participants with diabetes or various other risk factors. These criteria were mirrored in the Food and Drug Administration product label for IPE.

METHODS

We pooled 2,345 participants with triglycerides 150 to <500 mg/dL (or >178-<500 mg/dL if not on a statin) and without clinical ASCVD from MESA, CARDIA, the Dallas Heart Study, and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. We evaluated the incidence of ASCVD events overall, by IPE eligibility (as defined in the product label), and further stratified by CAC scores (0, >0-100, >100). The number needed to treat for 5 years (NNT₅) to prevent 1 event was estimated among IPE-eligible participants, assuming a 21.8% relative risk reduction with IPE. In exploratory analyses, the NNT₅ was also estimated among noneligible participants.

RESULTS

There was marked heterogeneity in CAC burden overall (45% CAC 0; 24% CAC >100) and across IPE eligibility strata. Overall, 17% of participants were eligible for IPE and 11.9% had ASCVD events within 5 years. Among participants eligible for IPE, 38% had CAC >100, and their event rates were markedly higher (15.9% vs 7.2%) and the NNT₅ 2.2-fold lower (29 vs 64) than those of the 25% eligible participants with CAC 0. Among the 83% participants not eligible for IPE, 20% had CAC >100, and their 5-year incidence of ASCVD (13.9%) was higher than the overall incidence among IPE-eligible participants.

CONCLUSIONS

CAC can improve current risk stratification and therapy allocation paradigms among individuals with hypertriglyceridemia without clinical ASCVD. Future trials of risk-reduction therapies in hypertriglyceridemia could use CAC >100 to enroll a high-risk study sample, with implications for a larger target population.

A Checklist Approach for Enhanced Outpatient Guideline-Directed Management in the Secondary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Compelling results from clinical trials supporting intensive risk-reduction therapies to reduce associated morbidity and mortality in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) provided the impetus for medical societies to integrate these evidence-based results into clinical practice guidelines. Current evidence, however, points toward gaps in the management of patients with established ASCVD. Some of these gaps are related to barriers to guideline implementation, and strategies are needed to overcome these barriers. In this review, we propose a framework incorporating comprehensive tools for enhanced guideline-directed management in secondary prevention of ASCVD. This aid includes a 13-point checklist with supporting educational and system-based tools for effective evidence-based pharmacological and nonpharmacological care. This proposed tool targets primary care providers and cardiologists in the outpatient setting who provide direct medical care for patients with established ASCVD.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Risk of Heart Failure Among Medicare Beneficiaries

Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and heart failure (HF) are increasing in prevalence. The independent association between NAFLD and downstream risk of HF and HF subtypes (HF with preserved ejection fraction and HF with reduced ejection fraction) is not well established. Methods and Results This was a retrospective, cohort study among Medicare beneficiaries. We selected Medicare beneficiaries without known prior diagnosis of HF. NAFLD was defined using presence of 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient claims using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), claims codes. Incident HF was defined using at least 1 inpatient or at least 2 outpatient HF claims during the follow-up period (October 2015-December 2016). Among 870 535 Medicare patients, 3.2% (N=27 919) had a clinical diagnosis of NAFLD. Patients with NAFLD were more commonly women, were less commonly Black patients, and had a higher burden of comorbidities, such as diabetes, obesity, and kidney disease. Over a mean 14.3 months of follow-up, patients with (versus without) baseline NAFLD had a significantly higher risk of new-onset HF in unadjusted (6.4% versus 5.0%; P<0.001) and adjusted (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI], 1.23 [1.18-1.29]) analyses. Among HF subtypes, the association of NAFLD with downstream risk of HF was stronger for HF with preserved ejection fraction (adjusted HR [95% CI], 1.24 [1.14-1.34]) compared with HF with reduced ejection fraction (adjusted HR [95% CI], 1.09 [0.98-1.2]). Conclusions Patients with NAFLD are at an increased risk of incident HF, with a higher risk of developing HF with preserved ejection fraction versus HF with reduced ejection fraction. The persistence of an increased risk after adjustment for clinical and demographic factors suggests an epidemiological link between NAFLD and HF beyond the basis of shared risk factors that requires further investigation.

Prevalence and Prognostic Implications of Diabetes With Cardiomyopathy in Community-Dwelling Adults

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is associated with abnormalities in cardiac remodeling and high risk of heart failure (HF).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic implications of diabetes with cardiomyopathy (DbCM) among community-dwelling individuals.

METHODS

Adults without prevalent cardiovascular disease or HF were pooled from 3 cohort studies (ARIC [Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities], CHS [Cardiovascular Health Study], CRIC [Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort]). Among participants with diabetes, DbCM was defined using different definitions: 1) least restrictive: ≥1 echocardiographic abnormality (left atrial enlargement, left ventricle hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction); 2) intermediate restrictive: ≥2 echocardiographic abnormalities; and 3) most restrictive: elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels (>125 in normal/overweight or >100 pg/mL in obese) plus ≥2 echocardiographic abnormalities. Adjusted Fine-Gray models were used to evaluate the risk of HF.

RESULTS

Among individuals with diabetes (2,900 of 10,208 included), the prevalence of DbCM ranged from 67.0% to 11.7% in the least and most restrictive criteria, respectively. Higher fasting glucose, body mass index, and age as well as worse kidney function were associated with higher risk of DbCM. The 5-year incidence of HF among participants with DbCM ranged from 8.4%-12.8% in the least and most restrictive definitions, respectively. Compared with euglycemia, DbCM was significantly associated with higher risk of incident HF with the highest risk observed for the most restrictive definition of DbCM (HR: 2.55 [95% CI: 1.69-3.86]; least restrictive criteria HR: 1.99 [95% CI: 1.50-2.65]). A similar pattern of results was observed across cohort studies, across sex and race subgroups, and among participants without hypertension or obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of the criteria used to define cardiomyopathy, DbCM identifies a high-risk subgroup for developing HF.

Physical Activity, Subclinical Myocardial Injury, and Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes in Black Adults

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the independent associations and interactions between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and physical activity (PA) with risk of heart failure (HF) subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

BACKGROUND

Black adults are at high risk for developing HF. Physical inactivity and subclinical myocardial injury, as assessed by hs-cTnI concentration, are independent risk factors for HF.

METHODS

Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study without prevalent HF who had hs-cTnI concentration and self-reported PA assessed at baseline were included. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the independent and joint associations and interaction between hs-cTnI concentrations and PA with risk of HFpEF and HFrEF.

RESULTS

Among 3,959 participants, 25.1% had subclinical myocardial injury (hs-cTnI ≥4 and ≥6 ng/l in women and men, respectively), and 48.2% were inactive (moderate-to-vigorous PA = 0 min/week). Over 12.0 years of follow-up, 163 and 150 participants had an incident HFpEF and HFrEF event, respectively. In adjusted analysis, higher hs-cTnI concentration (per 1-U log increase) was associated with higher risk of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.72]) and HFrEF (HR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.83]). In contrast, higher PA (per 1-U log increase) was associated with a lower risk of HFpEF (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.99]) but not HFrEF. There was a significant interaction between hs-cTnI and PA for risk of HFpEF (p interaction = 0.04) such that inactive participants with subclinical myocardial injury were at higher risk of HFpEF but active participants were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Black adults with subclinical myocardial injury, higher levels of PA were associated with attenuated risk of HFpEF.

Development and validation of optimal phenomapping methods to estimate long-term atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 2 diabetes is a heterogeneous disease process with variable trajectories of CVD risk. We aimed to evaluate four phenomapping strategies and their ability to stratify CVD risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes and to identify subgroups who may benefit from specific therapies.

METHODS

Participants with type 2 diabetes and free of baseline CVD in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial were included in this study (N = 6466). Clustering using Gaussian mixture models, latent class analysis, finite mixture models (FMMs) and principal component analysis was compared. Clustering variables included demographics, medical and social history, laboratory values and diabetes complications. The interaction between the phenogroup and intensive glycaemic, combination lipid and intensive BP therapy for the risk of the primary outcome (composite of fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal myocardial infarction or unstable angina) was evaluated using adjusted Cox models. The phenomapping strategies were independently assessed in an external validation cohort (Look Action for Health in Diabetes [Look AHEAD] trial: n = 4211; and Bypass Angioplasty Revascularisation Investigation 2 Diabetes [BARI 2D] trial: n = 1495).

RESULTS

Over 9.1 years of follow-up, 789 (12.2%) participants had a primary outcome event. FMM phenomapping with three phenogroups was the best-performing clustering strategy in both the derivation and validation cohorts as determined by Bayesian information criterion, Dunn index and improvement in model discrimination. Phenogroup 1 (n = 663, 10.3%) had the highest burden of comorbidities and diabetes complications, phenogroup 2 (n = 2388, 36.9%) had an intermediate comorbidity burden and lowest diabetes complications, and phenogroup 3 (n = 3415, 52.8%) had the fewest comorbidities and intermediate burden of diabetes complications. Significant interactions were observed between phenogroups and treatment interventions including intensive glycaemic control (p-interaction = 0.042) and combination lipid therapy (p-interaction < 0.001) in the ACCORD, intensive lifestyle intervention (p-interaction = 0.002) in the Look AHEAD and early coronary revascularisation (p-interaction = 0.003) in the BARI 2D trial cohorts for the risk of the primary composite outcome. Favourable reduction in the risk of the primary composite outcome with these interventions was noted in low-risk participants of phenogroup 3 but not in other phenogroups. Compared with phenogroup 3, phenogroup 1 participants were more likely to have severe/symptomatic hypoglycaemic events and medication non-adherence on follow-up in the ACCORD and Look AHEAD trial cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Clustering using FMMs was the optimal phenomapping strategy to identify replicable subgroups of patients with type 2 diabetes with distinct clinical characteristics, CVD risk and response to therapies.

Financial Hardship Among Nonelderly Adults With CKD in the United States

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The burden of financial hardship among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been extensively studied. Therefore, we describe the scope and determinants of financial hardship among a nationally representative sample of adults with CKD.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Nonelderly adults with CKD from the 2014-2018 National Health Interview Survey.

EXPOSURE

Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

OUTCOME

Financial hardship based on medical bills and consequences of financial hardship (high financial distress, food insecurity, cost-related medication nonadherence, delayed/forgone care due to cost). Financial hardship was categorized into 3 levels: no financial hardship, financial hardship but able to pay bills, and unable to pay bills at all. Financial hardship was then modeled in 2 different ways: (1) any financial hardship (regardless of ability to pay) versus no financial hardship and (2) inability to pay bills versus no financial hardship and financial hardship but able to pay bills.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Nationally representative estimates of financial hardship from medical bills were computed. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the associations of sociodemographic and clinical factors with the outcomes of financial hardship based on medical bills.

RESULTS

A total 1,425 individuals, representing approximately 2.1 million Americans, reported a diagnosis of CKD within the past year, of whom 46.9% (95% CI, 43.7%-50.2%) reported experiencing financial hardship from medical bills; 20.9% (95% CI, 18.5%-23.6%) reported inability to pay medical bills at all. Lack of insurance was the strongest determinant of financial hardship in this population (odds ratio, 4.06 [95% CI, 2.18-7.56]).

LIMITATIONS

Self-reported nature of CKD diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately half the nonelderly US population with CKD experiences financial hardship from medical bills that is associated strongly with lack of insurance. Evidence-based clinical and policy interventions are needed to address these hardships.

Development and Validation of Machine Learning-Based Race-Specific Models to Predict 10-Year Risk of Heart Failure: A Multicohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) risk and the underlying risk factors vary by race. Traditional models for HF risk prediction treat race as a covariate in risk prediction and do not account for significant parameters such as cardiac biomarkers. Machine learning (ML) may offer advantages over traditional modeling techniques to develop race-specific HF risk prediction models and to elucidate important contributors of HF development across races.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 4 large, community cohort studies (ARIC [Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities], DHS [Dallas Heart Study], JHS [Jackson Heart Study], and MESA [Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis]) with adjudicated HF events. The study included participants who were >40 years of age and free of HF at baseline. Race-specific ML models for HF risk prediction were developed in the JHS cohort (for Black race-specific model) and White adults from ARIC (for White race-specific model). The models included 39 candidate variables across demographic, anthropometric, medical history, laboratory, and electrocardiographic domains. The ML models were externally validated and compared with prior established traditional and non-race-specific ML models in race-specific subgroups of the pooled MESA/DHS cohort and Black participants of ARIC. The Harrell C-index and Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino χ² tests were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively.

RESULTS

The ML models had excellent discrimination in the derivation cohorts for Black (n=4141 in JHS, C-index=0.88) and White (n=7858 in ARIC, C-index=0.89) participants. In the external validation cohorts, the race-specific ML model demonstrated adequate calibration and superior discrimination (Black individuals, C-index=0.80-0.83; White individuals, C-index=0.82) compared with established HF risk models or with non-race-specific ML models derived with race included as a covariate. Among the risk factors, natriuretic peptide levels were the most important predictor of HF risk across both races, followed by troponin levels in Black and ECG-based Cornell voltage in White individuals. Other key predictors of HF risk among Black individuals were glycemic parameters and socioeconomic factors. In contrast, prevalent cardiovascular disease and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were stronger predictors of HF risk in White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Race-specific and ML-based HF risk models that integrate clinical, laboratory, and biomarker data demonstrated superior performance compared with traditional HF risk and non-race-specific ML models. This approach identifies distinct race-specific contributors of HF.

Regional adiposity, cardiorespiratory fitness, and left ventricular strain: an analysis from the Dallas Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), high body mass index, and excess visceral adiposity are each associated with impairment in left ventricular (LV) peak circumferential strain (Ecc), an intermediate phenotype that precedes the development of clinical heart failure (HF). However, the association of regional fat distribution and CRF with Ecc independent of each other and other potential confounders is not known.

METHODS

Participants from the Dallas Heart Study Phase 2 who underwent dual energy X-ray absorptiometry assessment of regional fat distribution, CRF assessment by submaximal treadmill test, and Ecc quantification by tissue-tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance were included in the analysis. The cross-sectional associations of measures of regional adiposity, namely visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and lower-body fat (LBF) with Ecc after adjustment for CRF and other potential confounders (independent variables) were assessed using multivariable linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 1089 participants (55% female, 39% black). In the unadjusted analysis, higher VAT was associated with greater impairment in Ecc. After adjustment for baseline risk factors, CRF, parameters of LV structure and function, and other fat depots such as SAT and LBF, higher VAT remained associated with greater impairment in Ecc (β: 0.19, P = 0.002). SAT and LBF were not significantly associated with Ecc, however, CRF remained associated with Ecc in the fully adjusted model including all fat depots (β: - 0.15, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

VAT and CRF are each independently associated with impairment in Ecc, suggesting that higher VAT burden and low CRF mediate pathological cardiac remodeling through distinct mechanisms.

Longitudinal Associations of Fitness and Obesity in Young Adulthood With Right Ventricular Function and Pulmonary Artery Systolic Pressure in Middle Age: The CARDIA Study

Background Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and obesity are risk factors for heart failure but their associations with right ventricular (RV) systolic function and pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) are not well understood. Methods and Results Participants in the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study who underwent maximal treadmill testing at baseline and had a follow-up echocardiographic examination at year 25 were included. A subset of participants had repeat CRF and body mass index (BMI) assessment at year 20. The associations of baseline and changes in CRF and BMI on follow-up (baseline to year 20) with RV systolic function parameters (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, RV Doppler systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus), and PASP were assessed using multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. The study included 3433 participants. In adjusted analysis, higher baseline BMI but not CRF was significantly associated with higher PASP. Among RV systolic function parameters, higher baseline CRF and BMI were significantly associated with higher tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion and RV systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus. In the subgroup of participants with follow-up assessment of CRF or BMI at year 20, less decline in CRF was associated with higher RV systolic velocity of the lateral tricuspid annulus and lower PASP, while greater increase in BMI was significantly associated with higher PASP in middle age. Conclusions Higher CRF in young adulthood and less decline in CRF over time are each significantly associated with better RV systolic function. Higher baseline BMI and greater age-related increases in BMI are each significantly associated with higher PASP in middle age. These findings provide insights into possible mechanisms through which low fitness and obesity may contribute toward risk of heart failure.

Cross-Sectional Associations of Objectively Measured Sedentary Time, Physical Activity, and Fitness With Cardiac Structure and Function: Findings From the Dallas Heart Study

Background

Physical inactivity and low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) are associated with higher risk of heart failure. However, the independent contributions of objectively measured sedentary time, physical activity, and CRF toward left ventricular (LV) structure and function are not well established.

Methods and Results

We included 1368 participants from the DHS (Dallas Heart Study) (age, 49 years; 40% men) free of cardiovascular disease who had physical activity and sedentary time measured by accelerometer, CRF estimated from submaximal treadmill test, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging performed using 3‐T magnetic resonance imaging. A series of linear regression models were constructed to evaluate the associations of sedentary time, moderate physical activity, vigorous physical activity, and CRF with LV parameters after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. We observed a modest correlation between CRF levels and objectively measured moderate (correlation coefficient, 0.17; P<0.001) and vigorous physical activity (correlation coefficient, 0.25; P<0.001) levels. In contrast, sedentary time was not associated with CRF. In adjusted analysis, both vigorous physical activity and higher CRF were significantly associated with greater stroke volume, LV mass, LV end‐diastolic volume, and lower arterial elastance, independent of other confounders. Sedentary time and moderate physical activity levels were not associated with LV parameters.

Conclusions

Vigorous physical activity and CRF are significantly associated with cardiac structure and function parameters. Future studies are needed to determine if interventions aimed at improving CRF levels may favorably modify cardiac structure and function.

Effect of Anacetrapib on Cholesterol Efflux Capacity: A Substudy of the DEFINE Trial

Background

Anacetrapib is the only cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor proven to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effects on reverse cholesterol transport have not been fully elucidated. Macrophage cholesterol efflux (CEC), the initial step of reverse cholesterol transport, is inversely associated with CHD and may be affected by sex as well as haptoglobin copy number variants among patients with diabetes mellitus. We investigated the effect of anacetrapib on CEC and whether this effect is modified by sex, diabetes mellitus, and haptoglobin polymorphism.

Methods and Results

A total of 574 participants with CHD were included from the DEFINE (Determining the Efficacy and Tolerability of CETP Inhibition With Anacetrapib) trial. CEC was measured at baseline and 24‐week follow‐up using J774 macrophages, boron dipyrromethene difluoride–labeled cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B–depleted plasma. Haptoglobin copy number variant was determined using an ELISA assay. Anacetrapib increased CEC, adjusted for baseline CEC, risk factors, and changes in lipids/apolipoproteins (standard β, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.05–0.41). This CEC‐raising effect was seen only in men (P interaction=0.002); no effect modification was seen by diabetes mellitus status. Among patients with diabetes mellitus, anacetrapib increased CEC in those with the normal 1‐1 haptoglobin genotype (standard β, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.16–0.69) but not the dysfunctional 2‐1/2‐2 genotypes (P interaction=0.02).

Conclusions

Among patients with CHD, anacetrapib at a dose linked to improved CHD outcomes significantly increased CEC independent of changes in high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol or other lipids, with effect modification by sex and a novel pharmacogenomic interaction by haptoglobin genotype, suggesting a putative mechanism for reduced risk requiring validation.

Association of Visit-to-Visit Variability in Kidney Function and Serum Electrolyte Indexes With Risk of Adverse Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Importance

Although kidney dysfunction and abnormalities in serum electrolyte levels are associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), the association of visit-to-visit variability in such laboratory measures with long-term outcomes is unclear.

Objective

To evaluate the associations of visit-to-visit variability in indexes of kidney function (creatinine and blood urea nitrogen [BUN] levels) and serum electrolyte (sodium, chloride, and potassium) with the risk of adverse clinical outcomes among patients with chronic, stable HFpEF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort analysis used data from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial. All participants with 3 or more serial laboratory measurements who were event free within the first 4 months of enrollment were included. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2019, to January 31, 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Adjusted associations between indexes of variability in serum laboratory measurements during the first 4 months of follow-up and risk of the primary composite outcome (a composite of aborted cardiac arrest, hospitalization for heart failure, or cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results

Of the 3445 patients enrolled in the TOPCAT trial (mean [SD] age, 68-69 [10] years; 49.7%-51.5% female), 2479 (BUN) to 3195 (potassium) were analyzed, depending on availability of serial measurements. Participants with higher laboratory variability in kidney function parameters were older, had more comorbidities, and had more severe symptoms of HFpEF. Higher visit-to-visit variability in BUN (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD higher average successive variability [ASV], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33) and creatinine (HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.22) were independently associated with a higher risk of the primary composite outcome as well as mortality independent of other baseline confounders, changes in kidney function, changes in medication dosages, and variability in other cardiometabolic parameters (systolic blood pressure and body mass index). The higher risk associated with greater variability in kidney function was consistent across subgroups of patients stratified by the presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) at baseline (CKD: HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.16-1.67 and no CKD: HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27), among placebo and spironolactone treatment arms separately (spironolactone arm: 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.65 and placebo arm: HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-1.56). Among serum electrolytes, variability in sodium and potassium measures were also significantly associated with a higher risk of primary composite events (sodium: HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.30 and potassium: HR per 1-SD higher ASV, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.02-1.44).

Conclusions and Relevance

In HFpEF, visit-to-visit variability in laboratory indexes of kidney function and serum electrolytes is common and independently associated with worse long-term clinical outcomes.

Association of Baseline and Longitudinal Changes in Body Composition Measures With Risk of Heart Failure and Myocardial Infarction in Type 2 Diabetes: Findings From the Look AHEAD Trial

BACKGROUND

Intentional weight loss is associated with lower risk of heart failure (HF) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among patients with type 2 diabetes. However, the contribution of baseline measures and longitudinal changes in fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM), and waist circumference (WC) to the risk of HF and myocardial infarction (MI) in type 2 diabetes is not well established.

METHODS

Adults from the Look AHEAD trial (Action for Health in Diabetes) without prevalent HF were included. FM and LM were predicted using validated equations and compared with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements in a subgroup. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the associations of baseline and longitudinal changes in FM, LM, and WC over 1- and 4-year follow-up with risk of overall HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction (EF; EF ≥50%), HF with reduced EF (EF <50%), and MI.

RESULTS

Among 5103 participants, there were 257 incident HF events over 12.4 years of follow-up. Predicted and measured FM/LM were highly correlated (R²=0.87-0.90; n=1369). FM and LM decreased over 4-year follow-up with greater declines in the intensive lifestyle intervention arm. In adjusted analysis, baseline body composition measures were not significantly associated with HF risk. Decline in FM and WC, but not LM, over 1 year were each significantly associated with lower risk of overall HF (adjusted hazard ratio per 10% decrease in FM, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.68-0.95]; adjusted hazard ratio per 10% decrease in WC, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.62-0.95]). Decline in FM was significantly associated with lower risk of both HF subtypes. In contrast, decline in WC was significantly associated with lower risk of HF with preserved EF but not HF with reduced EF. Similar patterns of association were observed for 4-year changes in body composition and HF risk. Longitudinal changes in body composition were not significantly associated with risk of MI.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with type 2 diabetes, a lifestyle intervention is associated with significant loss of FM and LM. Declines in FM and WC, but not LM, were each significantly associated with lower risk of HF but not MI. Furthermore, decline in WC was significantly associated with lower risk of HF with preserved EF but not HF with reduced EF. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00017953.

Association of Long-term Change and Variability in Glycemia With Risk of Incident Heart Failure Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Secondary Analysis of the ACCORD Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the associations between long-term change and variability in glycemia with risk of heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Among participants with T2DM enrolled in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, variability in HbA_1c was assessed from stabilization of HbA_1c following enrollment (8 months) to 3 years of follow-up as follows: average successive variability (ASV) (average absolute difference between successive values), coefficient of variation (SD/mean), and SD. Participants with HF at baseline or within 3 years of enrollment were excluded. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the association of percent change (from baseline to 3 years of follow-up) and variability in HbA_1c over the first 3 years of enrollment and subsequent risk of HF.

RESULTS

The study included 8,576 patients. Over a median follow-up of 6.4 years from the end of variability measurements at year 3, 388 patients had an incident HF hospitalization. Substantial changes in HbA_1c were significantly associated with higher risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR] for ≥10% decrease 1.32 [95% CI 1.08-1.75] and for ≥10% increase 1.55 [1.19-2.04]; reference <10% change in HbA_1c). Greater long-term variability in HbA_1c was significantly associated with higher risk of HF (HR per 1 SD of ASV 1.34 [95% CI 1.17-1.54]) independent of baseline risk factors and interval changes in cardiometabolic parameters. Consistent patterns of association were observed with use of alternative measures of glycemic variability.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial long-term changes and variability in HbA_1c were independently associated with risk of HF among patients with T2DM.

Association of Intensive Lifestyle Intervention, Fitness, and Body Mass Index With Risk of Heart Failure in Overweight or Obese Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: An Analysis From the Look AHEAD Trial

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a higher risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of a lifestyle intervention and changes in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and body mass index on risk for HF is not well established.

METHODS

Participants from the Look AHEAD trial (Action for Health in Diabetes) without prevalent HF were included. Time-to-event analyses were used to compare the risk of incident HF between the intensive lifestyle intervention and diabetes support and education groups. The associations of baseline measures of CRF estimated from a maximal treadmill test, body mass index, and longitudinal changes in these parameters with risk of HF were evaluated with multivariable adjusted Cox models.

RESULTS

Among the 5109 trial participants, there was no significant difference in the risk of incident HF (n=257) between the intensive lifestyle intervention and the diabetes support and education groups (hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.75-1.23]) over a median follow-up of 12.4 years. In the most adjusted Cox models, the risk of HF was 39% and 62% lower among moderate fit (tertile 2: hazard ratio, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.44-0.83]) and high fit (tertile 3: hazard ratio, 0.38 [95% CI, 0.24-0.59]) groups, respectively (referent group: low fit, tertile 1). Among HF subtypes, after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and interval incidence of myocardial infarction, baseline CRF was not significantly associated with risk of incident HF with reduced ejection fraction. In contrast, the risk of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction was 40% lower in the moderate fit group and 77% lower in the high fit group. Baseline body mass index also was not associated with risk of incident HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction, or HF with reduced ejection fraction after adjustment for CRF and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Among participants with repeat CRF assessments (n=3902), improvements in CRF and weight loss over a 4-year follow-up were significantly associated with lower risk of HF (hazard ratio per 10% increase in CRF, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.99]; per 10% decrease in body mass index, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.69-0.94]).

CONCLUSIONS

Among participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Look AHEAD trial, the intensive lifestyle intervention did not appear to modify the risk of HF. Higher baseline CRF and sustained improvements in CRF and weight loss were associated with lower risk of HF. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00017953.

Machine Learning to Predict the Risk of Incident Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients With Diabetes: The WATCH-DM Risk Score

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel, machine learning-derived model to predict the risk of heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using data from 8,756 patients free at baseline of HF, with <10% missing data, and enrolled in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, we used random survival forest (RSF) methods, a nonparametric decision tree machine learning approach, to identify predictors of incident HF. The RSF model was externally validated in a cohort of individuals with T2DM using the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 4.9 years, 319 patients (3.6%) developed incident HF. The RSF models demonstrated better discrimination than the best performing Cox-based method (C-index 0.77 [95% CI 0.75-0.80] vs. 0.73 [0.70-0.76] respectively) and had acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic χ² = 9.63, P = 0.29) in the internal validation data set. From the identified predictors, an integer-based risk score for 5-year HF incidence was created: the WATCH-DM (Weight [BMI], Age, hyperTension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes control [fasting plasma glucose], QRS Duration, MI, and CABG) risk score. Each 1-unit increment in the risk score was associated with a 24% higher relative risk of HF within 5 years. The cumulative 5-year incidence of HF increased in a graded fashion from 1.1% in quintile 1 (WATCH-DM score ≤7) to 17.4% in quintile 5 (WATCH-DM score ≥14). In the external validation cohort, the RSF-based risk prediction model and the WATCH-DM risk score performed well with good discrimination (C-index = 0.74 and 0.70, respectively), acceptable calibration (P ≥0.20 for both), and broad risk stratification (5-year HF risk range from 2.5 to 18.7% across quintiles 1-5).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a novel, machine learning-derived risk score that integrates readily available clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiographic variables to predict the risk of HF among outpatients with T2DM.

Incorporation of Biomarkers Into Risk Assessment for Allocation of Antihypertensive Medication According to the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guideline: A Pooled Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was a novel consideration for antihypertensive medication initiation in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure (BP) guideline. Whether biomarkers of chronic myocardial injury (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥6 ng/L] and stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] ≥100 pg/mL) can inform cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification and treatment decisions among adults with elevated BP and hypertension is unclear.

METHODS

Participant-level data from 3 cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Dallas Heart Study, and Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were pooled, excluding individuals with prevalent CV disease and those taking antihypertensive medication at baseline. Participants were analyzed according to BP treatment group from the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP guideline and those with high BP (120 to 159/<100 mm Hg) were further stratified by biomarker status. Cumulative incidence rates for CV event (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or heart failure), and the corresponding 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event with intensive BP lowering (to target systolic BP <120 mm Hg), were estimated for BP and biomarker-based subgroups.

RESULTS

The study included 12 987 participants (mean age, 55 years; 55% women; 21.5% with elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 17.7% with elevated NT-proBNP) with 825 incident CV events over 10-year follow-up. Participants with elevated BP or hypertension not recommended for antihypertensive medication with versus without either elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T or NT-proBNP had a 10-year CV incidence rate of 11.0% and 4.6%, with a 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event for intensive BP lowering of 36 and 85, respectively. Among participants with stage 1 or stage 2 hypertension recommended for antihypertensive medication with BP <160/100 mm Hg, those with versus without an elevated biomarker had a 10-year CV incidence rate of 15.1% and 7.9%, with a 10-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 event of 26 and 49, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevations in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T or NT-proBNP identify individuals with elevated BP or hypertension not currently recommended for antihypertensive medication who are at high risk for CV events. The presence of nonelevated biomarkers, even in the setting of stage 1 or stage 2 hypertension, was associated with lower risk. Incorporation of biomarkers into risk assessment algorithms may lead to more appropriate matching of intensive BP control with patient risk.

Phenomapping of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction using machine learning-based unsupervised cluster analysis

AIM

To identify distinct phenotypic subgroups in a highly-dimensional, mixed-data cohort of individuals with heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) using unsupervised clustering analysis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study included all Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) participants from the Americas (n = 1767). In the subset of participants with available echocardiographic data (derivation cohort, n = 654), we characterized three mutually exclusive phenogroups of HFpEF participants using penalized finite mixture model-based clustering analysis on 61 mixed-data phenotypic variables. Phenogroup 1 had higher burden of co-morbidities, natriuretic peptides, and abnormalities in left ventricular structure and function; phenogroup 2 had lower prevalence of cardiovascular and non-cardiac co-morbidities but higher burden of diastolic dysfunction; and phenogroup 3 had lower natriuretic peptide levels, intermediate co-morbidity burden, and the most favourable diastolic function profile. In adjusted Cox models, participants in phenogroup 1 (vs. phenogroup 3) had significantly higher risk for all adverse clinical events including the primary composite endpoint, all-cause mortality, and HF hospitalization. Phenogroup 2 (vs. phenogroup 3) was significantly associated with higher risk of HF hospitalization but a lower risk of atherosclerotic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death), and comparable risk of mortality. Similar patterns of association were also observed in the non-echocardiographic TOPCAT cohort (internal validation cohort, n = 1113) and an external cohort of patients with HFpEF [Phosphodiesterase-5 Inhibition to Improve Clinical Status and Exercise Capacity in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction (RELAX) trial cohort, n = 198], with the highest risk of adverse outcome noted in phenogroup 1 participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning-based cluster analysis can identify phenogroups of patients with HFpEF with distinct clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes.

Association of Hospital Performance Based on 30-Day Risk-Standardized Mortality Rate With Long-term Survival After Heart Failure Hospitalization: An Analysis of the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure Registry

Importance

Among patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF), the long-term clinical implications of hospitalization at hospitals based on 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) is not known.

Objective

To evaluate the association of hospital-specific 30-day RSMR with long-term survival among patients hospitalized with HF in the American Heart Association Get With The Guidelines-HF registry.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The longitudinal observational study included 106 304 patients with HF who were admitted to 317 centers participating in the Get With The Guidelines-HF registry from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2013, and had Medicare-linked follow-up data. Hospital-specific 30-day RSMR was calculated using a hierarchical logistic regression model. In the model, 30-day mortality rate was a binary outcome, patient baseline characteristics were included as covariates, and the hospitals were treated as random effects. The association of 30-day RSMR-based hospital groups (low to high 30-day RSMR: quartile 1 [Q1] to Q4) with long-term (1-year, 3-year, and 5-year) mortality was assessed using adjusted Cox models. Data analysis took place from June 29, 2017, to February 19, 2018.

Exposures

Thirty-day RSMR for participating hospitals.

Main Outcomes and Measures

One-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality rates.

Results

Of the 106 304 patients included in the analysis, 57 552 (54.1%) were women and 84 595 (79.6%) were white, and the median (interquartile range) age was 81 (74-87) years. The 30-day RSMR ranged from 8.6% (Q1) to 10.7% (Q4). Hospitals in the low 30-day RSMR group had greater availability of advanced HF therapies, cardiac surgery, and percutaneous coronary interventions. In the primary landmarked analyses among 30-day survivors, there was a graded inverse association between 30-day RSMR and long-term mortality (Q1 vs Q4: 5-year mortality, 73.7% vs 76.8%). In adjusted analysis, patients admitted to hospitals in the high 30-day RSMR group had 14% (95% CI, 10-18) higher relative hazards of 5-year mortality compared with those admitted to hospitals in the low 30-day RSMR group. Similar findings were observed in analyses of survival from admission, with 22% (95% CI, 18-26) higher relative hazards of 5-year mortality for patients admitted to Q4 vs Q1 hospitals.

Conclusions and Relevance

Lower hospital-level 30-day RSMR is associated with greater 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival for patients with HF. These differences in 30-day survival continued to accrue beyond 30 days and persisted long term, suggesting that 30-day RSMR may be a useful HF performance metric to incentivize quality care and improve long-term outcomes.