Machine learning for predicting opioid use disorder from healthcare data: A systematic review

Are Treatment Services Ready for the Use of Big Data Analytics and AI in Managing Opioid Use Disorder?

In this viewpoint, we explore the use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) and discuss important challenges to their ethical, effective, and equitable use within opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment settings. Applying our collective experiences as OUD policy and treatment experts, we discuss 8 key challenges that OUD treatment services must contend with to make the most of these rapidly evolving technologies: data and algorithmic transparency, clinical validation, new practitioner-technology interfaces, capturing data relevant to improving patient care, understanding and responding to algorithmic outputs, obtaining informed patient consent, navigating mistrust, and addressing digital exclusion and bias. Through this paper, we hope to critically engage clinicians and policy makers on important ethical considerations, clinical implications, and implementation challenges involved in big data analytics and AI deployment in OUD treatment settings.

A Review of Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Persistent Postoperative Opioid Use and Opioid Use Disorder and its Ethical Considerations

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Artificial intelligence (AI) offers a new frontier for aiding in the management of both acute and chronic pain, which may potentially transform opioid prescribing practices and addiction prevention strategies. In this review paper, not only do we discuss some of the current literature around predicting various opioid-related outcomes, but we also briefly point out the next steps to improve trustworthiness of these AI models prior to real-time use in clinical workflow.

RECENT FINDINGS

Machine learning-based predictive models for identifying risk for persistent postoperative opioid use have been reported for spine surgery, knee arthroplasty, hip arthroplasty, arthroscopic joint surgery, outpatient surgery, and mixed surgical populations. Several machine learning-based models have been described to predict an individual's propensity for opioid use disorder and opioid overdose. Natural language processing and large language model approaches have been described to detect opioid use disorder and persistent postsurgical opioid use from clinical notes. AI holds significant promise in enhancing the management of acute and chronic opioids, which may offer tools to help optimize dosing, predict addiction risks, and personalize pain management strategies. By harnessing the power of AI, healthcare providers can potentially improve patient outcomes, reduce the burden of opioid addiction, and contribute to solving the opioid crisis.

A systematic review of machine learning applications in predicting opioid associated adverse events

Machine learning has increasingly been applied to predict opioid-related harms due to its ability to handle complex interactions and generating actionable predictions. This review evaluated the types and quality of ML methods in opioid safety research, identifying 44 studies using supervised ML through searches of Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed and SCOPUS databases. Commonly predicted outcomes included postoperative opioid use (n = 15, 34%) opioid overdose (n = 8, 18%), opioid use disorder (n = 8, 18%) and persistent opioid use (n = 5, 11%) with varying definitions. Most studies (96%) originated from North America, with only 7% reporting external validation. Model performance was moderate to strong, but calibration was often missing (41%). Transparent reporting of model development was often incomplete, with key aspects such as calibration, imbalance correction, and handling of missing data absent. Infrequent external validation limited the generalizability of current models. Addressing these aspects is critical for transparency, interpretability, and future implementation of the results.

Design and development of a machine-learning-driven opioid overdose risk prediction tool integrated in electronic health records in primary care settings

BACKGROUND

Integrating advanced machine-learning (ML) algorithms into clinical practice is challenging and requires interdisciplinary collaboration to develop transparent, interpretable, and ethically sound clinical decision support (CDS) tools. We aimed to design a ML-driven CDS tool to predict opioid overdose risk and gather feedback for its integration into the University of Florida Health (UFHealth) electronic health record (EHR) system.

METHODS

We used user-centered design methods to integrate the ML algorithm into the EHR system. The backend and UI design sub-teams collaborated closely, both informed by user feedback sessions. We conducted seven user feedback sessions with five UF Health primary care physicians (PCPs) to explore aspects of CDS tools, including workflow, risk display, and risk mitigation strategies. After customizing the tool based on PCPs' feedback, we held two rounds of one-on-one usability testing sessions with 8 additional PCPs to gather feedback on prototype alerts. These sessions informed iterative UI design and backend processes, including alert frequency and reappearance circumstances.

RESULTS

The backend process development identified needs and requirements from our team, information technology, UFHealth, and PCPs. Thirteen PCPs (male = 62%, White = 85%) participated across 7 user feedback sessions and 8 usability testing sessions. During the user feedback sessions, PCPs (n = 5) identified flaws such as the term "high risk" of overdose potentially leading to unintended consequences (e.g., immediate addiction services referrals), offered suggestions, and expressed trust in the tool. In the first usability testing session, PCPs (n = 4) emphasized the need for natural risk presentation (e.g., 1 in 200) and suggested displaying the alert multiple times yearly for at-risk patients. Another 4 PCPs in the second usability testing session valued the UFHealth-specific alert for managing new or unfamiliar patients, expressed concerns about PCPs' workload when prescribing to high-risk patients, and recommended incorporating the details page into training sessions to enhance usability.

CONCLUSIONS

The final backend process for our CDS alert aligns with PCP needs and UFHealth standards. Integrating feedback from PCPs in the early development phase of our ML-driven CDS tool helped identify barriers and facilitators in the CDS integration process. This collaborative approach yielded a refined prototype aimed at minimizing unintended consequences and enhancing usability.

Mitigating Sociodemographic Bias in Opioid Use Disorder Prediction: Fairness-Aware Machine Learning Framework

BACKGROUND

Opioid use disorder (OUD) is a critical public health crisis in the United States, affecting >5.5 million Americans in 2021. Machine learning has been used to predict patient risk of incident OUD. However, little is known about the fairness and bias of these predictive models.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study are two-fold: (1) to develop a machine learning bias mitigation algorithm for sociodemographic features and (2) to develop a fairness-aware weighted majority voting (WMV) classifier for OUD prediction.

METHODS

We used the 2020 National Survey on Drug and Health data to develop a neural network (NN) model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD; NN-SGD) and an NN model using Adam (NN-Adam) optimizers and evaluated sociodemographic bias by comparing the area under the curve values. A bias mitigation algorithm, based on equality of odds, was implemented to minimize disparities in specificity and recall. Finally, a WMV classifier was developed for fairness-aware prediction of OUD. To further analyze bias detection and mitigation, we did a 1-N matching of OUD to non-OUD cases, controlling for socioeconomic variables, and evaluated the performance of the proposed bias mitigation algorithm and WMV classifier.

RESULTS

Our bias mitigation algorithm substantially reduced bias with NN-SGD, by 21.66% for sex, 1.48% for race, and 21.04% for income, and with NN-Adam by 16.96% for sex, 8.87% for marital status, 8.45% for working condition, and 41.62% for race. The fairness-aware WMV classifier achieved a recall of 85.37% and 92.68% and an accuracy of 58.85% and 90.21% using NN-SGD and NN-Adam, respectively. The results after matching also indicated remarkable bias reduction with NN-SGD and NN-Adam, respectively, as follows: sex (0.14% vs 0.97%), marital status (12.95% vs 10.33%), working condition (14.79% vs 15.33%), race (60.13% vs 41.71%), and income (0.35% vs 2.21%). Moreover, the fairness-aware WMV classifier achieved high performance with a recall of 100% and 85.37% and an accuracy of 73.20% and 89.38% using NN-SGD and NN-Adam, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of the proposed bias mitigation algorithm shows promise in reducing sociodemographic bias, with the WMV classifier confirming bias reduction and high performance in OUD prediction.

Analyzing Dropout in Alcohol Recovery Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Background: Retention in treatment is crucial for the success of interventions targeting alcohol use disorder (AUD), which affects over 100 million people globally. Most previous studies have used classical statistical techniques to predict treatment dropout, and their results remain inconclusive. This study aimed to use novel machine learning tools to identify models that predict dropout with greater precision, enabling the development of better retention strategies for those at higher risk. Methods: A retrospective observational study of 39,030 (17.3% female) participants enrolled in outpatient-based treatment for alcohol use disorder in a state-wide public treatment network has been used. Participants were recruited between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019. We applied different machine learning algorithms to create models that allow one to predict the premature cessation of treatment (dropout). With the objective of increasing the explainability of those models with the best precision, considered as black-box models, explainability technique analyses were also applied. Results: Considering as the best models those obtained with one of the so-called black-box models (support vector classifier (SVC)), the results from the best model, from the explainability perspective, showed that the variables that showed greater explanatory capacity for treatment dropout are previous drug use as well as psychiatric comorbidity. Among these variables, those of having undergone previous opioid substitution treatment and receiving coordinated psychiatric care in mental health services showed the greatest capacity for predicting dropout. Conclusions: By using novel machine learning techniques on a large representative sample of patients enrolled in alcohol use disorder treatment, we have identified several machine learning models that help in predicting a higher risk of treatment dropout. Previous treatment for other substance use disorders (SUDs) and concurrent psychiatric comorbidity were the best predictors of dropout, and patients showing these characteristics may need more intensive or complementary interventions to benefit from treatment.

Prediction of sustained opioid use in children and adolescents using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Opioid misuse in the paediatric population is understudied. This study aimed to develop a machine learning classifier to differentiate between occasional and sustained opioid users among children and adolescents in outpatient settings.

METHODS

Data for 29,335 patients under 19 yr with recorded opioid purchases were collected from medical records. Machine learning methods were applied to predict sustained opioid use within 1, 2, or 3 yr after first opioid use, using sociodemographic information, medical history, and healthcare usage variables collected near the time of first prescription fulfilment. The models' performance was evaluated with classification and calibration metrics, and a decision curve analysis. An online tool was deployed for model self-exploration and visualisation.

RESULTS

The models demonstrated good performance, with a 1-yr follow-up model achieving a sensitivity of 0.772, a specificity of 0.703, and an ROC-AUC of 0.792 on an independent test set, with calibration intercept and slope of 0.00 and 1.02, respectively. Decision curve analysis revealed the clinical benefit of using the model relative to other strategies. SHAP analysis (SHapley Additive exPlanations) identified influential variables, including the number of diagnoses, medical images, laboratory tests, and type of opioid used.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model showed promising performance in predicting sustained opioid use among paediatric patients. The online risk prediction tool can facilitate compliance to such tools by clinicians. This study presents the potential of machine learning in identifying at-risk paediatric populations for sustained opioid use, potentially contributing to secondary prevention of opioid abuse.

The development and internal validation of a multivariable model predicting 6-month mortality for people with opioid use disorder presenting to community drug services in England: a protocol

BACKGROUND

People with opioid use disorder have substantially higher standardised mortality rates compared to the general population; however, lack of clear individual prognostic information presents challenges to prioritise or target interventions within drug treatment services. Previous prognostic models have been developed to estimate the risk of developing opioid use disorder and opioid-related overdose in people routinely prescribed opioids but, to our knowledge, none have been developed to estimate mortality risk in people accessing drug services with opioid use disorder. Initial presentation to drug services is a pragmatic time to evaluate mortality risk given the contemporaneous routine collection of prognostic indicators and as a decision point for appropriate service prioritisation and targeted intervention delivery. This study aims to develop and internally validate a model to estimate 6-month mortality risk for people with opioid use disorder from prognostic indicators recorded at initial assessment in drug services in England.

METHODS

An English national dataset containing records from individuals presenting to drug services between 1 April 2013 and 1 April 2023 (n > 800,000) (the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System (NDTMS)) linked to their lifetime hospitalisation and death records (Hospital Episode Statistics-Office of National Statistics (HES-ONS)). Twelve candidate prognostic indicator variables were identified based on literature review of demographic and clinical features associated with increased mortality for people in treatment for opioid use disorder. Variables will be extracted at initial presentation to drug services with mortality measured at 6 months. Two multivariable Cox regression models will be developed one for 6-month all-cause mortality and one for 6-month drug-related mortality using backward elimination with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables. Internal validation will be undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination of both models will be reported using Harrel's c and d-statistics. Calibration curves and slopes will be presented comparing expected and observed event rates.

DISCUSSION

The models developed and internally validated in this study aim to improve clinical assessment of mortality risk for people with opioid use disorder presenting to drug services in England. External validation in different populations will be required to develop the model into a tool to assist future clinical decision-making.

Machine learning for healthcare that matters: Reorienting from technical novelty to equitable impact

Despite significant technical advances in machine learning (ML) over the past several years, the tangible impact of this technology in healthcare has been limited. This is due not only to the particular complexities of healthcare, but also due to structural issues in the machine learning for healthcare (MLHC) community which broadly reward technical novelty over tangible, equitable impact. We structure our work as a healthcare-focused echo of the 2012 paper "Machine Learning that Matters", which highlighted such structural issues in the ML community at large, and offered a series of clearly defined "Impact Challenges" to which the field should orient itself. Drawing on the expertise of a diverse and international group of authors, we engage in a narrative review and examine issues in the research background environment, training processes, evaluation metrics, and deployment protocols which act to limit the real-world applicability of MLHC. Broadly, we seek to distinguish between machine learning ON healthcare data and machine learning FOR healthcare-the former of which sees healthcare as merely a source of interesting technical challenges, and the latter of which regards ML as a tool in service of meeting tangible clinical needs. We offer specific recommendations for a series of stakeholders in the field, from ML researchers and clinicians, to the institutions in which they work, and the governments which regulate their data access.

Ethical issues in pain and palliation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Increased public awareness of ethical issues in pain and palliative care, along with patient advocacy groups, put pressure on healthcare systems and professionals to address these concerns.Our aim is to review the ethics dilemmas concerning palliative care in ICU, artificial intelligence applications in pain therapy and palliative care, and the opioids epidemics.

RECENT FINDINGS

In this focus review, we highlighted state of the art papers that were published in the last 18 months, on ethical issues in palliative care within the ICU, artificial intelligence trajectories, and how opioids epidemics has impacted pain management practices (see Visual Abstract).

SUMMARY

Palliative care in the ICU should involve a multidisciplinary team, to mitigate patients suffering and futility. Providing spiritual support in the ICU is an important aspect of holistic patient care too.Increasingly sophisticated tools for diagnosing and treating pain, as those involving artificial intelligence, might favour disparities in access, cause informed consent problems, and surely, they need prudence and reproducibility.Pain clinicians worldwide continue to face the ethical dilemma of prescribing opioids for patients with chronic noncancer pain. Balancing the need for effective pain relief with the risk of opioid misuse, addiction, and overdose is a very controversial task.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries: Current Concepts and Future Perspectives

The remarkable progress in data aggregation and deep learning algorithms has positioned artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to revolutionize the field of medicine. AI is becoming more and more prevalent in the healthcare sector, and its impact on orthopedic surgery is already evident in several fields. This review aims to examine the literature that explores the comprehensive clinical relevance of AI-based tools utilized before, during, and after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. The review focuses on current clinical applications and future prospects in preoperative management, encompassing risk prediction and diagnostics; intraoperative tools, specifically navigation, identifying complex anatomic landmarks during surgery; and postoperative applications in terms of postoperative care and rehabilitation. Additionally, AI tools in educational and training settings are presented. Orthopedic surgeons are showing a growing interest in AI, as evidenced by the applications discussed in this review, particularly those related to ACL injury. The exponential increase in studies on AI tools applicable to the management of ACL tears promises a significant future impact in its clinical application, with growing attention from orthopedic surgeons.