Early computational detection of potential high-risk SARS-CoV-2 variants

Prediction models for COVID-19 disease outcomes

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: MODEL SUMMARY AND MOTIVATION

Individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 experience a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations ranging from no symptoms to death. Using the Virus-Human Outcomes Prediction (ViHOP) algorithm, we aim to utilize the individual's clinical characteristics, the individual's location, and the infecting SARS-CoV-2 virus characteristics obtained by whole genome sequencing to determine their likelihood of admission to the hospital, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), or experiencing long COVID. This model allows clinicians to identify at-risk patients for further monitoring and/or early treatment.

Mechanistic study of the transmission pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant

The omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) characterized by 30 mutations in its spike protein, has rapidly spread worldwide since November 2021, significantly exacerbating the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In order to investigate the relationship between these mutations and the variant's high transmissibility, we conducted a systematic analysis of the mutational effect on spike-angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) interactions and explored the structural/energy correlation of key mutations, utilizing a reliable coarse-grained model. Our study extended beyond the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of spike trimer through comprehensive modeling of the full-length spike trimer rather than just the RBD. Our free-energy calculation revealed that the enhanced binding affinity between the spike protein and the ACE2 receptor is correlated with the increased structural stability of the isolated spike protein, thus explaining the omicron variant's heightened transmissibility. The conclusion was supported by our experimental analyses involving the expression and purification of the full-length spike trimer. Furthermore, the energy decomposition analysis established those electrostatic interactions make major contributions to this effect. We categorized the mutations into four groups and established an analytical framework that can be employed in studying future mutations. Additionally, our calculations rationalized the reduced affinity of the omicron variant towards most available therapeutic neutralizing antibodies, when compared with the wild type. By providing concrete experimental data and offering a solid explanation, this study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between theories and observations and lays the foundation for future investigations.

Frequency of SARS-CoV-2 variants identified by real-time PCR in the AUNA healthcare network, Peru

Introduction

In Peru, on 11 February 2023, the Ministry of Health registered 4 million patients infected with COVID-19 and around 219,260 deaths. In 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 virus was acquiring mutations that impacted the properties of transmissibility, infectivity, and immune evasion, leading to new lineages. In the present study, the frequency of COVID-19 variants was determined during 2021 and 2022 in patients treated in the AUNA healthcare network.

Methods

The methodology used to detect mutations and identify variants was the Allplex™ SARS-CoV-2 Variants Assay I, II, and VII kit RT-PCR. The frequency of variants was presented by epidemiological weeks.

Results

In total, 544 positive samples were evaluated, where the Delta, Omicron, and Gamma variants were identified. The Delta variant was found in 242 (44.5%) patients between epidemiological weeks 39 and 52 in 2021. In the case of Gamma, it was observed in 8 (1.5%) patients at weeks 39, 41, 43, 45, and 46 of 2021. The Omicron variant was the most frequent with 289 (53.1%) patients during weeks 49 to 52 of 2021 and 1 to 22 of 2022. During weeks 1 through 22 of 2022, it was possible to discriminate between BA. 1 (n = 32) and BA.2 (n = 82).

Conclusion

The rapid identification of COVID-19 variants through the RT-PCR methodology contributes to timely epidemiological surveillance, as well as appropriate patient management.

Forecasting dominance of SARS-CoV-2 lineages by anomaly detection using deep AutoEncoders

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is characterized by sequential emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and lineages outcompeting previously circulating ones because of, among other factors, increased transmissibility and immune escape1-3. We devised an unsupervised deep learning AutoEncoder for viral genomes anomaly detection to predict future dominant lineages (FDLs), i.e., lineages or sublineages comprising ≥10% of viral sequences added to the GISAID database on a given week4. The algorithm was trained and validated by assembling global and country-specific data sets from 16,187,950 Spike protein sequences sampled between December 24th, 2019, and November 8th, 2023. The AutoEncoder flags low frequency FDLs (0.01% - 3%), with median lead times of 4-16 weeks. Over time, positive predictive values oscillate, decreasing linearly with the number of unique sequences per data set, showing average performance up to 30 times better than baseline approaches. The B.1.617.2 vaccine reference strain was flagged as FDL when its frequency was only 0.01%, more than one year earlier of being considered for an updated COVID-19 vaccine. Our AutoEncoder, applicable in principle to any pathogen, also pinpoints specific mutations potentially linked to increased fitness, and may provide significant insights for the optimization of public health pre-emptive intervention strategies.

Learning from prepandemic data to forecast viral escape

Effective pandemic preparedness relies on anticipating viral mutations that are able to evade host immune responses to facilitate vaccine and therapeutic design. However, current strategies for viral evolution prediction are not available early in a pandemic-experimental approaches require host polyclonal antibodies to test against1-16, and existing computational methods draw heavily from current strain prevalence to make reliable predictions of variants of concern17-19. To address this, we developed EVEscape, a generalizable modular framework that combines fitness predictions from a deep learning model of historical sequences with biophysical and structural information. EVEscape quantifies the viral escape potential of mutations at scale and has the advantage of being applicable before surveillance sequencing, experimental scans or three-dimensional structures of antibody complexes are available. We demonstrate that EVEscape, trained on sequences available before 2020, is as accurate as high-throughput experimental scans at anticipating pandemic variation for SARS-CoV-2 and is generalizable to other viruses including influenza, HIV and understudied viruses with pandemic potential such as Lassa and Nipah. We provide continually revised escape scores for all current strains of SARS-CoV-2 and predict probable further mutations to forecast emerging strains as a tool for continuing vaccine development ( evescape.org ).

Fitness, growth and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants

The massive scale of the global SARS-CoV-2 sequencing effort created new opportunities and challenges for understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Rapid detection and assessment of new variants has become one of the principal objectives of genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. Because of the pace and scale of sequencing, new strategies have been developed for characterizing fitness and transmissibility of emerging variants. In this Review, I discuss a wide range of approaches that have been rapidly developed in response to the public health threat posed by emerging variants, ranging from new applications of classic population genetics models to contemporary synthesis of epidemiological models and phylodynamic analysis. Many of these approaches can be adapted to other pathogens and will have increasing relevance as large-scale pathogen sequencing becomes a regular feature of many public health systems.

Progressive loss of conserved spike protein neutralizing antibody sites in Omicron sublineages is balanced by preserved T cell immunity

Evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has led to the emergence of sublineages with different patterns of neutralizing antibody evasion. We report that Omicron BA.4/BA.5 breakthrough infection of individuals immunized with SARS-CoV-2 wild-type-strain-based mRNA vaccines results in a boost of Omicron BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1.1, and BA.2.75 neutralization but does not efficiently boost BA.2.75.2, XBB, or XBB.1.5 neutralization. In silico analyses showed that the Omicron spike glycoprotein lost most neutralizing B cell epitopes, especially in sublineages BA.2.75.2, XBB, and XBB.1.5. In contrast, T cell epitopes are conserved across variants including XBB.1.5. T cell responses of mRNA-vaccinated, SARS-CoV-2-naive individuals against the wild-type strain, Omicron BA.1, and BA.4/BA.5 were comparable, suggesting that T cell immunity against recent sublineages including XBB.1.5 may remain largely unaffected. While some Omicron sublineages effectively evade B cell immunity, spike-protein-specific T cell immunity, due to the nature of polymorphic cell-mediated immune responses, may continue to contribute to prevention/limitation of severe COVID-19 manifestation.

Deep-learning-enabled protein-protein interaction analysis for prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and variant evolution

Host-pathogen interactions and pathogen evolution are underpinned by protein-protein interactions between viral and host proteins. An understanding of how viral variants affect protein-protein binding is important for predicting viral-host interactions, such as the emergence of new pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants. Here we propose an artificial intelligence-based framework called UniBind, in which proteins are represented as a graph at the residue and atom levels. UniBind integrates protein three-dimensional structure and binding affinity and is capable of multi-task learning for heterogeneous biological data integration. In systematic tests on benchmark datasets and further experimental validation, UniBind effectively and scalably predicted the effects of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variants on their binding affinities to the human ACE2 receptor, as well as to SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore, in a cross-species analysis, UniBind could be applied to predict host susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 variants and to predict future viral variant evolutionary trends. This in silico approach has the potential to serve as an early warning system for problematic emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as to facilitate research on protein-protein interactions in general.

Evaluation of Mutual Information and Feature Selection for SARS-CoV-2 Respiratory Infection

This study aims to develop a predictive model for SARS-CoV-2 using machine-learning techniques and to explore various feature selection methods to enhance the accuracy of predictions. A precise forecast of the SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections spread can help with efficient planning and resource allocation. The proposed model utilizes stochastic regression to capture the virus transmission's stochastic nature, considering data uncertainties. Feature selection techniques are employed to identify the most relevant and informative features contributing to prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the study explores the use of neighbor embedding and Sammon mapping algorithms to visualize high-dimensional SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection data in a lower-dimensional space, enabling better interpretation and understanding of the underlying patterns. The application of machine-learning techniques for predicting SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections, the use of statistical measures in healthcare, including confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an analysis of country-wise dynamics of the pandemic using machine-learning models are used. Our analysis involves the performance of various algorithms, including neural networks (NN), decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), the Adam optimizer (AD), hyperparameters (HP), stochastic regression (SR), neighbor embedding (NE), and Sammon mapping (SM). A pre-processed and feature-extracted SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection dataset is combined with ADHPSRNESM to form a new orchestration in the proposed model for a perfect prediction to increase the precision of accuracy. The findings of this research can contribute to public health efforts by enabling policymakers and healthcare professionals to make informed decisions based on accurate predictions, ultimately aiding in managing and controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.