Learning predictive structure without a teacher: decision strategies and brain routes

Statistical learning shapes pain perception and prediction independently of external cues

The placebo and nocebo effects highlight the importance of expectations in modulating pain perception, but in everyday life we don't need an external source of information to form expectations about pain. The brain can learn to predict pain in a more fundamental way, simply by experiencing fluctuating, non-random streams of noxious inputs, and extracting their temporal regularities. This process is called statistical learning. Here, we address a key open question: does statistical learning modulate pain perception? We asked 27 participants to both rate and predict pain intensity levels in sequences of fluctuating heat pain. Using a computational approach, we show that probabilistic expectations and confidence were used to weigh pain perception and prediction. As such, this study goes beyond well-established conditioning paradigms associating non-pain cues with pain outcomes, and shows that statistical learning itself shapes pain experience. This finding opens a new path of research into the brain mechanisms of pain regulation, with relevance to chronic pain where it may be dysfunctional.

Deterministic and probabilistic regularities underlying risky choices are acquired in a changing decision context

Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable in the task's first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons. The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical structure that controls how the environment changes.

Computational and neural mechanisms of statistical pain learning

Pain invariably changes over time. These fluctuations contain statistical regularities which, in theory, could be learned by the brain to generate expectations and control responses. We demonstrate that humans learn to extract these regularities and explicitly predict the likelihood of forthcoming pain intensities in a manner consistent with optimal Bayesian inference with dynamic update of beliefs. Healthy participants received probabilistic, volatile sequences of low and high-intensity electrical stimuli to the hand during brain fMRI. The inferred frequency of pain correlated with activity in sensorimotor cortical regions and dorsal striatum, whereas the uncertainty of these inferences was encoded in the right superior parietal cortex. Unexpected changes in stimulus frequencies drove the update of internal models by engaging premotor, prefrontal and posterior parietal regions. This study extends our understanding of sensory processing of pain to include the generation of Bayesian internal models of the temporal statistics of pain.

Statistical Learning in Vision

Vision and learning have long been considered to be two areas of research linked only distantly. However, recent developments in vision research have changed the conceptual definition of vision from a signal-evaluating process to a goal-oriented interpreting process, and this shift binds learning, together with the resulting internal representations, intimately to vision. In this review, we consider various types of learning (perceptual, statistical, and rule/abstract) associated with vision in the past decades and argue that they represent differently specialized versions of the fundamental learning process, which must be captured in its entirety when applied to complex visual processes. We show why the generalized version of statistical learning can provide the appropriate setup for such a unified treatment of learning in vision, what computational framework best accommodates this kind of statistical learning, and what plausible neural scheme could feasibly implement this framework. Finally, we list the challenges that the field of statistical learning faces in fulfilling the promise of being the right vehicle for advancing our understanding of vision in its entirety. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Vision Science, Volume 8 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The prevalence and importance of statistical learning in human cognition and behavior

Statistical learning, the ability to extract regularities from the environment over time, has become a topic of burgeoning interest. Its influence on behavior, spanning infancy to adulthood, has been demonstrated across a range of tasks, both those labeled as tests of statistical learning and those from other learning domains that predated statistical learning research or that are not typically considered in the context of that literature. Given this pervasive role in human cognition, statistical learning has the potential to reconcile seemingly distinct learning phenomena and may be an under-appreciated but important contributor to a wide range of human behaviors that are studied as unrelated processes, such as episodic memory and spatial navigation.