A sparse Bayesian hierarchical vector autoregressive model for microbial dynamics in a wastewater treatment plant

MIMIC: a Python package for simulating, inferring, and predicting microbial community interactions and dynamics

SUMMARY

The study of microbial communities is vital for understanding their impact on environmental, health, and technological domains. The Modelling and Inference of MICrobiomes Project (MIMIC) introduces a Python package designed to advance the simulation, inference, and prediction of microbial community interactions and dynamics. Addressing the complex nature of microbial ecosystems, MIMIC integrates a suite of mathematical models, including previously used approaches such as Generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV), Gaussian Processes (GP), and Vector Autoregression (VAR) plus newly developed models for integrating multi-omic data, to offer a versatile framework for analyzing microbial dynamics. By leveraging Bayesian inference and machine learning techniques, MIMIC provides the ability to infer the dynamics of microbial communities from empirical data, facilitating a deeper understanding of their complex biological processes, unveiling possible unknown ecological interactions, and enabling the design of microbial communities. Such insights could help to advance microbial ecology research, optimizing biotechnological applications, and contribute to environmental sustainability and public health strategies. MIMIC is designed for flexibility and ease of use, aiming to support researchers and practitioners in microbial ecology and microbiome research.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

MIMIC is freely available under the MIT License at https://github.com/ucl-cssb/MIMIC. It is implemented in Python (version 3.7 or higher) and is compatible with Windows, macOS, and Linux operating systems. MIMIC depends on standard Python libraries including NumPy, SciPy, and PyMC. Comprehensive examples and tutorials (including the main text demonstrations) are provided as Jupyter notebooks in the examples/directory and at the MIMIC Docs website, along with detailed installation instructions and real-world data use cases. The software will remain freely available for at least two years following publication. A code snapshot for this publication is also available at Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15149003.

Beyond single-species models: leveraging multispecies forecasts to navigate the dynamics of ecological predictability

Background

Forecasting the responses of natural populations to environmental change is a key priority in the management of ecological systems. This is challenging because the dynamics of multi-species ecological communities are influenced by many factors. Populations can exhibit complex, nonlinear responses to environmental change, often over multiple temporal lags. In addition, biotic interactions, and other sources of multi-species dependence, are major contributors to patterns of population variation. Theory suggests that near-term ecological forecasts of population abundances can be improved by modelling these dependencies, but empirical support for this idea is lacking.

Methods

We test whether models that learn from multiple species, both to estimate nonlinear environmental effects and temporal interactions, improve ecological forecasts compared to simpler single species models for a semi-arid rodent community. Using dynamic generalized additive models, we analyze time series of monthly captures for nine rodent species over 25 years.

Results

Model comparisons provide strong evidence that multi-species dependencies improve both hindcast and forecast performance, as models that captured these effects gave superior predictions than models that ignored them. We show that changes in abundance for some species can have delayed, nonlinear effects on others, and that lagged, nonlinear effects of temperature and vegetation greenness are key drivers of changes in abundance for this system.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight that multivariate models are useful not only to improve near-term ecological forecasts but also to ask targeted questions about ecological interactions and drivers of change. This study emphasizes the importance of jointly modelling species' shared responses to the environment and their delayed temporal interactions when teasing apart community dynamics.