Predicting biotic responses to future climate warming with classic ecogeographic rules

Global latitudinal gradients and the evolution of body size in dinosaurs and mammals

Global climate patterns fundamentally shape the distribution of species and ecosystems. For example, Bergmann's rule predicts that homeothermic animals, including birds and mammals, inhabiting cooler climates are generally larger than close relatives from warmer climates. The modern world, however, lacks the comparative data needed to evaluate such macroecological rules rigorously. Here, we test for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs and mammaliaforms that radiated within relatively temperate global climate regimes. We develop a phylogenetic model that accounts for biases in the fossil record and allows for variable evolutionary dispersal rates. Our analysis also includes new fossil data from the extreme high-latitude Late Cretaceous Arctic Prince Creek Formation. We find no evidence for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs or mammaliaforms, the ancestors of extant homeothermic birds and mammals. When our model is applied to thousands of extant dinosaur (bird) and mammal species, we find that body size evolution remains independent of latitude. A modest temperature effect is found in extant, but not in Mesozoic, birds, suggesting that body size evolution in modern birds was influenced by Bergmann's rule during Cenozoic climatic change. Our study provides a general approach for studying macroecological rules, highlighting the fossil record's power to address longstanding ecological principles.

The incredible shrinking puffin: Decreasing size and increasing proportional bill size of Atlantic puffins nesting at Machias Seal Island

Climate change imposes physiological constraints on organisms particularly through changing thermoregulatory requirements. Bergmann's and Allen's rules suggest that body size and the size of thermoregulatory structures differ between warm and cold locations, where body size decreases with temperature and thermoregulatory structures increase. However, phenotypic plastic responses to malnutrition during development can result in the same patterns while lacking fitness benefits. The Gulf of Maine (GOM), located at the southern end of the Labrador current, is warming faster than most of the world's oceans, and many of the marine species that occupy these waters exist at the southern edge of their distributions including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica; hereafter "puffin"). Monitoring of puffins in the GOM, at Machias Seal Island (MSI), has continued annually since 1995. We asked whether changes in adult puffin body size and the proportional size of bill to body have changed with observed rapid ocean warming. We found that the size of fledgling puffins is negatively related to sea surface temperature anomalies (warm conditions = small fledgers), adult puffin size is related to fledgling size (small fledgers = small adults), and adult puffins have decreased in size in recent years in response to malnutrition during development. We found an increase in the proportional size of bill to wing chord, likely in response to some mix of malnutrition during development and increasing air temperatures. Although studies have assessed clinal variation in seabird morphology with temperature, this is the first study addressing changes in seabird morphology in relation to ocean warming. Our results suggest that puffins nesting in the GOM have morphological plasticity that may help them acclimate to ocean warming.

What's going to be on the menu with global environmental changes?

Ongoing anthropogenic change is altering the planet at an unprecedented rate, threatening biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. Species are responding to abiotic pressures at both individual and population levels, with changes affecting trophic interactions through consumptive pathways. Collectively, these impacts alter the goods and services that natural ecosystems will provide to society, as well as the persistence of all species. Here, we describe the physiological and behavioral responses of species to global changes on individual and population levels that result in detectable changes in diet across terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We illustrate shifts in the dynamics of food webs with implications for animal communities. Additionally, we highlight the myriad of tools available for researchers to investigate the dynamics of consumption patterns and trophic interactions, arguing that diet data are a crucial component of ecological studies on global change. We suggest that a holistic approach integrating the complexities of diet choice and trophic interactions with environmental drivers may be more robust at resolving trends in biodiversity, predicting food web responses, and potentially identifying early warning signs of diversity loss. Ultimately, despite the growing body of long-term ecological datasets, there remains a dearth of diet ecology studies across temporal scales, a shortcoming that must be resolved to elucidate vulnerabilities to changing biophysical conditions.

A global assessment of Bergmann's rule in mammals and birds

Bergmann's rule states that endotherms have a large body size in high latitudes and cold climates. However, previous empirical studies have reported mixed evidence on the relationships between body size and latitude, raising the question of why some clades of endotherms follow Bergmann's rule, whereas others do not. Here, we synthesized the interspecific relationships between body size and latitude among 16,187 endothermic species (5422 mammals and 10,765 birds) using Bayesian phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to examine the strength and magnitude of Bergmann's rule. We further assessed the effect of biological and ecological factors (i.e., body mass categories, dietary guild, winter activity, habitat openness, and climate zone) on the variations in the body mass-latitude relationships by adding an interaction term in the models. Our results revealed a generally weak but significant adherence to Bergmann's rule among all endotherms at the global scale. Despite taxonomic variation in the strength of Bergmann's rule, the body mass of species within most animal orders showed an increasing trend toward high latitudes. Generally, large-bodied, temperate species, non-hibernating mammals, and migratory and open-habitat birds tend to conform to Bergmann's rule more than their relatives do. Our results suggest that whether Bergmann's rule applies to a particular taxon is mediated by not only geographic and biological features, but also potential alternate strategies that species might have for thermoregulation. Future studies could explore the potential of integrating comprehensive trait data into phylogenetic comparative analysis to re-assess the classic ecogeographic rules on a global scale.

Analysis of marine heatwaves over the Bay of Bengal during 1982-2021

Anomalous increase in sea surface temperature and its impact on natural ecosystems greatly interests the research community. Here we investigate the causes, impacts, and trends of marine heat wave (MHW) events in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) from 1982 to 2021. A total of 107 MHW events have been isolated (> 90th percentile threshold) in this Indian Ocean region, and their variation in intensity, duration, and frequency has been investigated. Our research unveils that an average of three MHW events/year accompanied by a linearly increasing trend of 1.11 MHW events/decade has been observed over the study region. It was also found that the most intense event was observed in 2016, which continued for 69 days, and had a maximum intensity of 5.29 °C and a mean intensity of 2.03 °C (above climatology mean). Moreover, it was observed that the net heat flux, along with anticyclonic eddies, was the primary cause of MHW events. Anticyclonic eddies associated with positive sea surface height anomaly were observed (> 0.20 m) in the vicinity of the most intense MHW event. Additionally, climate change and climate modes like El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole show a high positive influence on the MHW events. Furthermore, we have examined the MHW event recurrence patterns in various regions of the BoB. From the monthly analysis, it was found that August and November had the most occurrences of MHWs, while April and May had the most extreme MHW events.

Regional variation in climate change alters the range-wide distribution of colour polymorphism in a wild bird

According to Gloger's rule, animal colouration is expected to be darker in wetter and warmer climates. Such environmental clines are predicted to occur in colour polymorphic species and to be shaped by selection if colour morphs represent adaptations to different environments. We studied if the distribution of the colour polymorphic tawny owl (Strix aluco) morphs (a pheomelanic brown and a pale grey) across Europe follow the predictions of Gloger's rule and if there is a temporal change in the geographical patterns corresponding to regional variations in climate change. We used data on tawny owl museum skin specimen collections. First, we investigated long-term spatiotemporal variation in the probability of observing the colour morphs in different climate zones. Second, we studied if the probability of observing the colour morphs was associated with general climatic conditions. Third, we studied if weather fluctuations prior to the finding year of an owl explain colour morph in each climate zone. The brown tawny owl morph was historically more common than the grey morph in every studied climate zone. Over time, the brown morph has become rarer in the temperate and Mediterranean zone, whereas it has first become rarer but then again more common in the boreal zone. Based on general climatic conditions, winter and summer temperatures were positively and negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph, respectively. Winter precipitation was negatively associated with the proportion of brown morph. The effects of 5-year means of weather on the probability to observe a brown morph differed between climate zones, indicating region-dependent effect of climate change and weather on tawny owl colouration. To conclude, tawny owl colouration does not explicitly follow Gloger's rule, implying a time and space-dependent complex system shaped by many factors. We provide novel insights into how the geographic distribution of pheomelanin-based colour polymorphism is changing.

A practical guide to collections-based research on ecogeographic rules

Ecogeographic research into how species' forms vary across space, time, and climate has taken on new urgency due to contemporary global climate change. Research using museum specimens and other records to study biological rules like Bergmann's, Allen's, and Gloger's Rules has a long history and continues to generate publications and robust scientific debates. Despite the prevalence and history of the field, however, no simple guide on how to carry out such work has ever been published. To lower the barriers of entry for new researchers, this review was created as a practical guide on how to perform ecogeographic research. The guide consolidates disparately published methodologies into a single, convenient document that reviews the history and present of the field of ecogeographic rule research, and describes how to generate appropriate hypotheses, design experiments, gather, and analyze biotic and geographic data, and interpret the results in an ecologically meaningful manner. The result is a semi-standardized guide that enables scientists at all levels from any institution to carry out an investigation from start to finish on any biological rule, taxon, and location of their choice.

Temperature-associated morphological changes in an African arid-zone ground squirrel

The ecology, life histories, and physiology of many animals are changing in response to human-induced climate change. As the Earth warms, the ability of an animal to thermoregulate becomes ecologically and physiologically significant. Morphological adaptations to warmer temperatures include larger appendages and smaller bodies. We examined morphological features in a ground squirrel, Xerus inauris, living in the arid zones of South Africa, to examine whether squirrels have responded to increases in temperature and changes in seasonal rainfall with morphological modifications over the last 18 years. We found that over time, absolute hindfoot length and proportional hindfoot length increased, while spine length decreased. These changes are consistent with ecogeographical rules (Allen’s rule and Bergmann’s rule) and provide evidence in support of “shape-shifting” in response to climatic warming. Body mass also increased with time; however, these changes were not consistent with Bergmann’s rule, indicating that mass is influenced by other ecological factors (e.g., resource availability). Our study adds to the growing evidence that animal morphologies are changing in response to changing climatic conditions, although it remains to be seen whether these changes are adaptive.

Large genetic divergence underpins cryptic local adaptation across ecological and evolutionary gradients

Environmentally covarying local adaptation is a form of cryptic local adaptation in which the covariance of the genetic and environmental effects on a phenotype obscures the divergence between locally adapted genotypes. Here, we systematically document the magnitude and drivers of the genetic effect (V_G) for two forms of environmentally covarying local adaptation: counter- and cogradient variation. Using a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis, we calculated the overall effect size of V_G as 1.05 and 2.13 for populations exhibiting countergradient or cogradient variation, respectively. These results indicate that the genetic contribution to phenotypic variation represents a 1.05 to 2.13 s.d. change in trait value between the most disparate populations depending on if populations are expressing counter- or cogradient variation. We also found that while there was substantial variance among abiotic and biotic covariates, the covariates with the largest mean effects were temperature (2.41) and gamete size (2.81). Our results demonstrate the pervasiveness and large genetic effects underlying environmentally covarying local adaptation in wild populations and highlight the importance of accounting for these effects in future studies.

Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards

Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, 'living fossil' reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.

Thermal adaptation best explains Bergmann's and Allen's Rules across ecologically diverse shorebirds

Bergmann's and Allen's rules state that endotherms should be larger and have shorter appendages in cooler climates. However, the drivers of these rules are not clear. Both rules could be explained by adaptation for improved thermoregulation, including plastic responses to temperature in early life. Non-thermal explanations are also plausible as climate impacts other factors that influence size and shape, including starvation risk, predation risk, and foraging ecology. We assess the potential drivers of Bergmann's and Allen's rules in 30 shorebird species using extensive field data (>200,000 observations). We show birds in hot, tropical northern Australia have longer bills and smaller bodies than conspecifics in temperate, southern Australia, conforming with both ecogeographical rules. This pattern is consistent across ecologically diverse species, including migratory birds that spend early life in the Arctic. Our findings best support the hypothesis that thermoregulatory adaptation to warm climates drives latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape.

Divergent Tree Growth and the Response to Climate Warming and Humidification in the Tianshan Mountains, China

In recent decades, the global climate has changed significantly. The climate in Northwest China became warm-wet, especially in the Tianshan Mountains. In order to explore the response of tree growth to recent climate change, the two dominant trees species, Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. and Larix sibirica Ledeb., were studied with the dendrochronological method in the western Tianshan Mountains (WT) and the eastern Tianshan Mountains (ET). Our results showed that: (1) The tree growth of four sample sites in the WT significantly increased in recent decades, while the trees in the three sample sites in the ET significantly decreased. (2) In the WT, except for the Manas site, the tree-ring chronologies of the other three sites were significantly positively correlated with the mean annual minimum temperature. Tree-ring chronologies in the WT, except for Bangfanggou site, were significantly positively correlated with annual precipitation. In the ET, only the tree chronology of L. sibirica in the Balikun site was significantly negatively correlated with the annual temperatures, including the mean minimum, mean and mean maximum temperature. (3) The proportion of trees with a significant upward growth trend at each site decreased from west to east, and the proportion of trees with a significant downward growth trend at each site increased from west to east along the whole Tianshan Mountains. (4) The correlation of tree-ring chronologies with the annual temperature and annual precipitation was not stable during the study period. Warm-humidification promoted the growth of trees in the WT but inhibited tree growth in the ET, which may be exacerbated drought stress in the ET where the increase in precipitation was not enough to offset the increased evapotranspiration potential caused by warming.

Genetics and Plasticity Are Responsible for Ecogeographical Patterns in a Recent Invasion

Patterns of covariation between phenotype and environment are presumed to be reflective of local adaptation, and therefore translate to a meaningful influence on an individual's overall fitness within that specific environment. However, these environmentally driven patterns may be the result of numerous and interacting processes, such as genetic variation, epigenetic variation, or plastic non-heritable variation. Understanding the relative importance of different environmental variables on underlying genetic patterns and resulting phenotypes is fundamental to understanding adaptation. Invasive systems are excellent models for such investigations, given their propensity for rapid evolution. This study uses reduced representation sequencing data paired with phenotypic data to examine whether important phenotypic traits in invasive starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) within Australia appear to be highly heritable (presumably genetic) or appear to vary with environmental gradients despite underlying genetics (presumably non-heritable plasticity). We also sought to determine which environmental variables, if any, play the strongest role shaping genetic and phenotypic patterns. We determined that environmental variables-particularly elevation-play an important role in shaping allelic trends in Australian starlings and may also reinforce neutral genetic patterns resulting from historic introduction regime. We examined a range of phenotypic traits that appear to be heritable (body mass and spleen mass) or negligibly heritable (e.g. beak surface area and wing length) across the starlings' Australian range. Using SNP variants associated with each of these phenotypes, we identify key environmental variables that correlate with genetic patterns, specifically that temperature and precipitation putatively play important roles shaping phenotype in this species. Finally, we determine that overall phenotypic variation is correlated with underlying genetic variation, and that these interact positively with the level of vegetation variation within a region, suggesting that ground cover plays an important role in shaping selection and plasticity of phenotypic traits within the starlings of Australia.

Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), severely affect marine ecosystems. Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown, because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a "future threshold" that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of SSTs, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming poses a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

Migratory birds are lighter coloured

Migratory birds undertake long and challenging journeys that have selected for a suite of adaptations from sensory mechanisms that facilitate orientation to extreme feats of endurance that push physiological limits. Recent work on two distantly related species revealed that migrating individuals increase their flight altitude dramatically during the day compared to at night^1,2. These studies suggested that the phenomenon is driven by thermoregulation: the ascent to cooler heights during the day may offset heat generated by absorption of solar radiation. If thermoregulation is an important selective force on migratory species, migrants should have evolved lighter, more reflective plumage to avoid overheating. Here we show, across the entire avian radiation, that migratory species are indeed lighter coloured.

Morphological variations in a widely distributed Eastern Asian passerine cannot be consistently explained by ecogeographic rules

Ecogeographic rules that describe quantitative relationships between morphologies and climate might help us predict how morphometrics of animals was shaped by local temperature or humidity. Although the ecogeographic rules had been widely tested in animals of Europe and North America, they had not been fully validated for species in regions that are less studied. Here, we investigate the morphometric variation of a widely distributed East Asian passerine, the vinous-throated parrotbill (Sinosuthora webbiana), to test whether its morphological variation conforms to the prediction of Bergmann's rule, Allen's rules, and Gloger's rule. We at first described the climatic niche of S. webbiana from occurrence records (n = 7838) and specimen records (n = 290). The results of analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) suggested that the plumage coloration of these parrotbills was darker in wetter/warmer environments following Gloger's rule. However, their appendage size (culmen length, beak volume, tarsi length) was larger in colder environments, the opposite of the predictions of Allen's rule. Similarly, their body size (wing length) was larger in warmer environments, the opposite of the predictions of Bergmann's rule. Such disconformity to both Bergmann's rule and Allen's rule suggests that the evolution of morphological variations is likely governed by multiple selection forces rather than dominated by thermoregulation. Our results suggest that these ecogeographic rules should be validated prior to forecasting biological responses to climate change especially for species in less-studied regions.

Shape-shifting: changing animal morphologies as a response to climatic warming

Many animal appendages, such as avian beaks and mammalian ears, can be used to dissipate excess body heat. Allen's rule, wherein animals in warmer climates have larger appendages to facilitate more efficient heat exchange, reflects this. We find that there is widespread evidence of 'shape-shifting' (changes in appendage size) in endotherms in response to climate change and its associated climatic warming. We re-examine studies of morphological change over time within a thermoregulatory context, finding evidence that temperature can be a strong predictor of morphological change independently of, or combined with, other environmental changes. Last, we discuss how Allen's rule, the degree of temperature change, and other ecological factors facilitate morphological change and make predictions about what animals will show shape-shifting.

Why climate change should generally lead to lighter coloured animals

How species will adapt to future climate change is a key question in modern biology. One way to predict such adaptation is to draw from our knowledge of current spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. These are often summarised by different ecogeographical rules that describe how environmental gradients predict geographic variation in form and function. A recent review in Current Biology [1] synthesises how ecogeographical rules can lead to predictions about future responses to climate change in terms of appendage size, physiology, life-history traits, distribution and colour. Based on Gloger's rule, which predicts darker coloured animals in warm and wet environments, Tian and Benton [1] suggest that animals will become darker with global warming. Although the authors mention that uncertainties in the way this ecogeographical rule is interpreted make predictions difficult [1], here we argue that the opposite scenario is more likely - that selection will favour animals with lighter colours.

Response to Delhey et al

Predicting how organisms will respond to future climate change is a challenging task for biologists. In general, there are three ways to make such biotic predictions. First, by manipulating climatic conditions, such as temperature, humidity, etc. in laboratory experiments, it is possible to observe how adaptation or extinction occurs. Second, historical data can be synthesised using a meta-analysis to test for any relationship between biotic changes and climatic warming since the industrial revolution. Lastly, theoretical trends in biotic change can be associated with observed spatial variation (where, for example, climatic gradients result in spatial variations equivalent to climate changes).