Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The reorganization of predator-prey networks over 20 million years explains extinction patterns of mammalian carnivores

Linking the species interactions occurring at the scale of local communities to their potential impact at evolutionary timescales is challenging. Here, we used the high-resolution fossil record of mammals from the Iberian Peninsula to reconstruct a timeseries of trophic networks spanning more than 20 million years and asked whether predator-prey interactions affected regional extinction patterns. We found that, despite small changes in species richness, trophic networks showed long-term trends, gradually losing interactions and becoming sparser towards the present. This restructuring of the ecological networks was driven by the loss of medium-sized herbivores, which reduced prey availability for predators. The decrease in prey availability was associated with predator longevity, such that predators with less available prey had greater extinction risk. These results not only reveal long-term trends in network structure but suggest that prey species richness in ecological communities may shape large scale patterns of extinction and persistence among predators.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

The decline and fall of the mammalian stem

The mammalian crown originated during the Mesozoic and subsequently radiated into the substantial array of forms now extant. However, for about 100 million years before the crown's origin, a diverse array of stem mammalian lineages dominated terrestrial ecosystems. Several of these stem lineages overlapped temporally and geographically with the crown mammals during the Mesozoic, but by the end of the Cretaceous crown mammals make up the overwhelming majority of the fossil record. The progress of this transition between ecosystems dominated by stem mammals and those dominated by crown mammals is not entirely clear, in part due to a distinct separation of analyses and datasets. Analyses of macroevolutionary patterns tend to focus on either the Mammaliaformes or the non-mammalian cynodonts, with little overlap in the datasets, preventing direct comparison of the diversification trends. Here I analyse species richness and biogeography of Synapsida as a whole during the Mesozoic, allowing comparison of the patterns in the mammalian crown and stem within a single framework. The analysis reveals the decline of the stem mammals occurred in two discrete phases. The first phase occurred between the Triassic and Middle Jurassic, during which the stem mammals were more restricted in their geographic range than the crown mammals, although within localities their species richness remained at levels seen previously. The second phase was a decline in species richness, which occurred during the Lower Cretaceous. The results show the decline of stem mammals, including tritylodontids and several mammaliaform groups, was not tied to a specific event, nor a gradual decline, but was instead a multiphase transition.

Bayesian analyses indicate bivalves did not drive the downfall of brachiopods following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Certain times of major biotic replacement have often been interpreted as broadly competitive, mediated by innovation in the succeeding clades. A classic example was the switch from brachiopods to bivalves as major seabed organisms following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME), ~252 million years ago. This was attributed to competitive exclusion of brachiopods by the better adapted bivalves or simply to the fact that brachiopods had been hit especially hard by the PTME. The brachiopod-bivalve switch is emblematic of the global turnover of marine faunas from Palaeozoic-type to Modern-type triggered by the PTME. Here, using Bayesian analyses, we find that unexpectedly the two clades displayed similar large-scale trends of diversification before the Jurassic. Insight from a multivariate birth-death model shows that the extinction of major brachiopod clades during the PTME set the stage for the brachiopod-bivalve switch, with differential responses to high ocean temperatures post-extinction further facilitating their displacement by bivalves. Our study strengthens evidence that brachiopods and bivalves were not competitors over macroevolutionary time scales, with extinction events and environmental stresses shaping their divergent fates.

Integrating Fossil Flowers into the Angiosperm Phylogeny Using Molecular and Morphological Evidence

Fossils are essential to infer past evolutionary processes. The assignment of fossils to extant clades has traditionally relied on morphological similarity and on apomorphies shared with extant taxa. The use of explicit phylogenetic analyses to establish fossil affinities has so far remained limited. In this study, we built a comprehensive framework to investigate the phylogenetic placement of 24 exceptionally preserved fossil flowers. For this, we assembled a new species-level data set of 30 floral traits for 1201 extant species that were sampled to capture the stem and crown nodes of all angiosperm families. We explored multiple analytical approaches to integrate the fossils into the phylogeny, including different phylogenetic estimation methods, topological-constrained analyses, and combining molecular and morphological data of extant and fossil species. Our results were widely consistent across approaches and showed minor differences in the support of fossils at different phylogenetic positions. The placement of some fossils agrees with previously suggested relationships, but for others, a new placement is inferred. We also identified fossils that are well supported within particular extant families, whereas others showed high phylogenetic uncertainty. Finally, we present recommendations for future analyses combining molecular and morphological evidence, regarding the selection of fossils and appropriate methodologies, and provide some perspectives on how to integrate fossils into the investigation of divergence times and the temporal evolution of morphological traits. [Angiosperms; fossil flowers; phylogenetic uncertainty; RoguePlots.].

Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology

Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Dots on a screen: The past, present, and future of morphometrics in the study of nonavian dinosaurs

Using morphometrics to study nonavian dinosaur fossils is a practice that predates the origin of the word "dinosaur." By the 1970s, linear morphometrics had become established as a valuable tool for analyzing intra- and interspecific variation in nonavian dinosaurs. With the advent of more recent techniques such as geometric morphometrics and more advanced statistical approaches, morphometric analyses of nonavian dinosaurs have proliferated, granting unprecedented insight into many aspects of their biology and evolution. I outline the past, present, and future of morphometrics as applied to the study of nonavian dinosaurs zeroing in on five aspects of nonavian dinosaur paleobiology where morphometrics has been widely utilized to advance our knowledge: systematics, sexual dimorphism, locomotion, macroevolution, and trackways. Morphometric methods are especially susceptible to taphonomic distortion. As such, the impact of taphonomic distortion on original fossil shape is discussed as are current and future methods for quantifying and accounting for distortion with the goal of reducing the taphonomic noise to biological signal ratio. Finally, the future of morphometrics in nonavian dinosaur paleobiology is discussed as paleobiologists move into a "virtual paleobiology" framework, whereby digital renditions of fossils are captured via methods such as photogrammetry and computed tomography. These primary data form the basis for three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometric analyses along with a slew of other forms of analyses. These 3D specimen data form part of the extended specimen and help to democratize paleobiology, unlocking the specimen from the physical museum and making the specimen available to researchers across the world.

Divergent vertebral formulae shape the evolution of axial complexity in mammals

Complexity, defined as the number of parts and their degree of differentiation, is a poorly explored aspect of macroevolutionary dynamics. The maximum anatomical complexity of organisms has undoubtedly increased through evolutionary time. However, it is unclear whether this increase is a purely diffusive process or whether it is at least partly driven, occurring in parallel in most or many lineages and with increases in the minima as well as the means. Highly differentiated and serially repeated structures, such as vertebrae, are useful systems with which to investigate these patterns. We focus on the serial differentiation of the vertebral column in 1,136 extant mammal species, using two indices that quantify complexity as the numerical richness and proportional distribution of vertebrae across presacral regions and a third expressing the ratio between thoracic and lumbar vertebrae. We address three questions. First, we ask whether the distribution of complexity values in major mammal groups is similar or whether clades have specific signatures associated with their ecology. Second, we ask whether changes in complexity throughout the phylogeny are biased towards increases and whether there is evidence of driven trends. Third, we ask whether evolutionary shifts in complexity depart from a uniform Brownian motion model. Vertebral counts, but not complexity indices, differ significantly between major groups and exhibit greater within-group variation than recognized hitherto. We find strong evidence of a trend towards increasing complexity, where higher values propagate further increases in descendant lineages. Several increases are inferred to have coincided with major ecological or environmental shifts. We find support for multiple-rate models of evolution for all complexity metrics, suggesting that increases in complexity occurred in stepwise shifts, with evidence for widespread episodes of recent rapid divergence. Different subclades evolve more complex vertebral columns in different configurations and probably under different selective pressures and constraints, with widespread convergence on the same formulae. Further work should therefore focus on the ecological relevance of differences in complexity and a more detailed understanding of historical patterns.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Sampling biases obscure the early diversification of the largest living vertebrate group

Extant ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii) dominate marine and freshwater environments, yet spatio-temporal diversity dynamics following their origin in the Palaeozoic are poorly understood. Previous studies investigate face-value patterns of richness, with only qualitative assessment of biases acting on the Palaeozoic actinopterygian fossil record. Here, we investigate palaeogeographic trends, reconstruct local richness and apply richness estimation techniques to a recently assembled occurrence database for Palaeozoic ray-finned fishes. We identify substantial fossil record biases, such as geographical bias in sampling centred around Europe and North America. Similarly, estimates of diversity are skewed by extreme unevenness in the occurrence distributions, reflecting historical biases in sampling and taxonomic practices, to the extent that evenness has an overriding effect on diversity estimates. Other than a genuine rise in diversity in the Tournaisian following the end-Devonian mass extinction, diversity estimates for Palaeozoic actinopterygians appear to lack biological signal, are heavily biased and are highly dependent on sampling. Increased sampling of poorly represented regions and expanding sampling beyond the literature to include museum collection data will be critical in obtaining accurate estimates of Palaeozoic actinopterygian diversity. In conjunction, applying diversity estimation techniques to well-sampled regional subsets of the 'global' dataset may identify accurate local diversity trends.

The impact of paleoclimatic changes on body size evolution in marine fishes

General rules are useful tools for understanding how organisms evolve. Cope’s rule (tendency to increase in size over evolutionary time) and Bergmann’s rule (tendency to grow to larger sizes in cooler climates) both relate to body size, an important factor that affects the biology, ecology, and physiology of organisms. These rules are well studied in endotherms but remain poorly understood among ectotherms. Here, we show that paleoclimatic changes strongly shaped the trajectory of body size evolution in tetraodontiform fishes. Their body size evolution is explained by both Cope’s and Bergmann’s rules, highlighting the impact of paleoclimatic changes on aquatic organisms, which rely on their environment for temperature regulation and are likely more susceptible than terrestrial vertebrates to climatic changes.

Body size is an important species trait, correlating with life span, fecundity, and other ecological factors. Over Earth’s geological history, climate shifts have occurred, potentially shaping body size evolution in many clades. General rules attempting to summarize body size evolution include Bergmann’s rule, which states that species reach larger sizes in cooler environments and smaller sizes in warmer environments, and Cope’s rule, which poses that lineages tend to increase in size over evolutionary time. Tetraodontiform fishes (including pufferfishes, boxfishes, and ocean sunfishes) provide an extraordinary clade to test these rules in ectotherms owing to their exemplary fossil record and the great disparity in body size observed among extant and fossil species. We examined Bergmann’s and Cope’s rules in this group by combining phylogenomic data (1,103 exon loci from 185 extant species) with 210 anatomical characters coded from both fossil and extant species. We aggregated data layers on paleoclimate and body size from the species examined, and inferred a set of time-calibrated phylogenies using tip-dating approaches for downstream comparative analyses of body size evolution by implementing models that incorporate paleoclimatic information. We found strong support for a temperature-driven model in which increasing body size over time is correlated with decreasing oceanic temperatures. On average, extant tetraodontiforms are two to three times larger than their fossil counterparts, which otherwise evolved during periods of warmer ocean temperatures. These results provide strong support for both Bergmann’s and Cope’s rules, trends that are less studied in marine fishes compared to terrestrial vertebrates and marine invertebrates.

Inner ear biomechanics reveals a Late Triassic origin for mammalian endothermy

Endothermy underpins the ecological dominance of mammals and birds in diverse environmental settings^1,2. However, it is unclear when this crucial feature emerged during mammalian evolutionary history, as most of the fossil evidence is ambiguous^3-17. Here we show that this key evolutionary transition can be investigated using the morphology of the endolymph-filled semicircular ducts of the inner ear, which monitor head rotations and are essential for motor coordination, navigation and spatial awareness^18-22. Increased body temperatures during the ectotherm-endotherm transition of mammal ancestors would decrease endolymph viscosity, negatively affecting semicircular duct biomechanics^23,24, while simultaneously increasing behavioural activity^25,26 probably required improved performance²⁷. Morphological changes to the membranous ducts and enclosing bony canals would have been necessary to maintain optimal functionality during this transition. To track these morphofunctional changes in 56 extinct synapsid species, we developed the thermo-motility index, a proxy based on bony canal morphology. The results suggest that endothermy evolved abruptly during the Late Triassic period in Mammaliamorpha, correlated with a sharp increase in body temperature (5-9 °C) and an expansion of aerobic and anaerobic capacities. Contrary to previous suggestions^3-14, all stem mammaliamorphs were most probably ectotherms. Endothermy, as a crucial physiological characteristic, joins other distinctive mammalian features that arose during this period of climatic instability²⁸.

Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.

Global diversity trends in the fossil record vary regionally through time and space, affecting our ability to interpret macroevolutionary history. Here, the authors propose a method to eliminate spatial sampling bias, estimate origination and extinction rates, and generate diversity estimates, applying this method to the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record.

Bottom-up controls, ecological revolutions and diversification in the oceans through time

Animals originated in the oceans and evolved there for hundreds of millions of years before adapting to terrestrial environments. Today, oceans cover more than two-thirds of Earth and generate as much primary production as land. The path from the first macrobiota to modern marine biodiversity involved parallel increases in terrestrial nutrient input, marine primary production, species' abundance, metabolic rates, ecotypic diversity and taxonomic diversity. Bottom-up theories of ecosystem cascades arrange these changes in a causal sequence. At the base of marine food webs, nutrient fluxes and atmosphere-ocean chemistry interact with phytoplankton to regulate production. First-order consumers (e.g., zooplankton) might propagate changes in quantity and quality of phytoplankton to changes in abundance and diversity of larger predators (e.g., nekton). However, many uncertainties remain about the mechanisms and effect size of bottom-up control, particularly in oceans across the entire history of animal life. Here, we review modern and fossil evidence for hypothesized bottom-up pathways, and we assess the ramifications of these processes for four key intervals in marine ecosystems: the Ediacaran-Cambrian (635-485 million years ago), the Ordovician (485-444 million years ago), the Devonian (419-359 million years ago) and the Mesozoic (252-66 million years ago). We advocate for a clear articulation of bottom-up hypotheses to better understand causal relationships and proposed effects, combined with additional ecological experiments, paleontological documentation, isotope geochemistry and geophysical reconstructions. How small-scale ecological change transitions into large-scale evolutionary change remains an outstanding question for empirical and theoretical research.