A generalizable electrocardiogram-based artificial intelligence model for 10-year heart failure risk prediction

Heart failure risk stratification using artificial intelligence applied to electrocardiogram images: a multinational study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Current heart failure (HF) risk stratification strategies require comprehensive clinical evaluation. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) applied to electrocardiogram (ECG) images was examined as a strategy to predict HF risk.

METHODS

Across multinational cohorts in the Yale New Haven Health System (YNHHS), UK Biobank (UKB), and Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), individuals without baseline HF were followed for the first HF hospitalization. An AI-ECG model that defines cross-sectional left ventricular systolic dysfunction from 12-lead ECG images was used, and its association with incident HF was evaluated. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) were used as a comparator.

RESULTS

Among 231 285 YNHHS patients, 4472 had primary HF hospitalizations over 4.5 years (inter-quartile range 2.5-6.6). In UKB and ELSA-Brasil, among 42 141 and 13 454 people, 46 and 31 developed HF over 3.1 (2.1-4.5) and 4.2 (3.7-4.5) years. A positive AI-ECG screen portended a 4- to 24-fold higher risk of new-onset HF [age-, sex-adjusted hazard ratio: YNHHS, 3.88 (95% confidence interval 3.63-4.14); UKB, 12.85 (6.87-24.02); ELSA-Brasil, 23.50 (11.09-49.81)]. The association was consistent after accounting for comorbidities and the competing risk of death. Higher probabilities were associated with progressively higher HF risk. Model discrimination was 0.718 in YNHHS, 0.769 in UKB, and 0.810 in ELSA-Brasil. In YNHHS and ELSA-Brasil, incorporating AI-ECG with PCP-HF yielded a significant improvement in discrimination over PCP-HF alone.

CONCLUSIONS

An AI model applied to a single ECG image defined the risk of future HF, representing a digital biomarker for stratifying HF risk.

Future Horizons: The Potential Role of Artificial Intelligence in Cardiology

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of premature death and disability globally, leading to significant increases in healthcare costs and economic strains. Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a crucial technology in this context, promising to have a significant impact on the management of CVDs. A wide range of methods can be used to develop effective models for medical applications, encompassing everything from predicting and diagnosing diseases to determining the most suitable treatment for individual patients. This literature review synthesizes findings from multiple studies that apply AI technologies such as machine learning algorithms and neural networks to electrocardiograms, echocardiography, coronary angiography, computed tomography, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. A narrative review of 127 articles identified 31 papers that were directly relevant to the research, encompassing a broad spectrum of AI applications in cardiology. These applications included AI models for ECG, echocardiography, coronary angiography, computed tomography, and cardiac MRI aimed at diagnosing various cardiovascular diseases such as coronary artery disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmias, pulmonary embolism, and valvulopathies. The papers also explored new methods for cardiovascular risk assessment, automated measurements, and optimizing treatment strategies, demonstrating the benefits of AI technologies in cardiology. In conclusion, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in cardiology promises substantial advancements in diagnosing and treating cardiovascular diseases.

Recent advancements and applications of deep learning in heart failure: Α systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF), a global health challenge, requires innovative diagnostic and management approaches. The rapid evolution of deep learning (DL) in healthcare necessitates a comprehensive review to evaluate these developments and their potential to enhance HF evaluation, aligning clinical practices with technological advancements.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to systematically explore the contributions of DL technologies in the assessment of HF, focusing on their potential to improve diagnostic accuracy, personalize treatment strategies, and address the impact of comorbidities.

METHODS

A thorough literature search was conducted across four major electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and IEEE Xplore, yielding 137 articles that were subsequently categorized into five primary application areas: cardiovascular disease (CVD) classification, HF detection, image analysis, risk assessment, and other clinical analyses. The selection criteria focused on studies utilizing DL algorithms for HF assessment, not limited to HF detection but extending to any attempt in analyzing and interpreting HF-related data.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed a notable emphasis on CVD classification and HF detection, with DL algorithms showing significant promise in distinguishing between affected individuals and healthy subjects. Furthermore, the review highlights DL's capacity to identify underlying cardiomyopathies and other comorbidities, underscoring its utility in refining diagnostic processes and tailoring treatment plans to individual patient needs.

CONCLUSIONS

This review establishes DL as a key innovation in HF management, highlighting its role in advancing diagnostic accuracy and personalized care. The insights provided advocate for the integration of DL in clinical settings and suggest directions for future research to enhance patient outcomes in HF care.

Scalable Risk Stratification for Heart Failure Using Artificial Intelligence applied to 12-lead Electrocardiographic Images: A Multinational Study

Background

Current risk stratification strategies for heart failure (HF) risk require either specific blood-based biomarkers or comprehensive clinical evaluation. In this study, we evaluated the use of artificial intelligence (AI) applied to images of electrocardiograms (ECGs) to predict HF risk.

Methods

Across multinational longitudinal cohorts in the integrated Yale New Haven Health System (YNHHS) and in population-based UK Biobank (UKB) and Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), we identified individuals without HF at baseline. Incident HF was defined based on the first occurrence of an HF hospitalization. We evaluated an AI-ECG model that defines the cross-sectional probability of left ventricular dysfunction from a single image of a 12-lead ECG and its association with incident HF. We accounted for the competing risk of death using the Fine-Gray subdistribution model and evaluated the discrimination using Harrel's c-statistic. The pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) were used as a comparator for estimating incident HF risk.

Results

Among 231,285 individuals at YNHHS, 4472 had a primary HF hospitalization over 4.5 years (IQR 2.5-6.6) of follow-up. In UKB and ELSA-Brasil, among 42,741 and 13,454 people, 46 and 31 developed HF over a follow-up of 3.1 (2.1-4.5) and 4.2 (3.7-4.5) years, respectively. A positive AI-ECG screen portended a 4-fold higher risk of incident HF among YNHHS patients (age-, sex-adjusted HR [aHR] 3.88 [95% CI, 3.63-4.14]). In UKB and ELSA-Brasil, a positive-screen ECG portended 13- and 24-fold higher hazard of incident HF, respectively (aHR: UKBB, 12.85 [6.87-24.02]; ELSA-Brasil, 23.50 [11.09-49.81]). The association was consistent after accounting for comorbidities and the competing risk of death. Higher model output probabilities were progressively associated with a higher risk for HF. The model's discrimination for incident HF was 0.718 in YNHHS, 0.769 in UKB, and 0.810 in ELSA-Brasil. Across cohorts, incorporating model probability with PCP-HF yielded a significant improvement in discrimination over PCP-HF alone.

Conclusions

An AI model applied to images of 12-lead ECGs can identify those at elevated risk of HF across multinational cohorts. As a digital biomarker of HF risk that requires just an ECG image, this AI-ECG approach can enable scalable and efficient screening for HF risk.

AI-based preeclampsia detection and prediction with electrocardiogram data

Introduction

More than 76,000 women die yearly from preeclampsia and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Early diagnosis and management of preeclampsia can improve outcomes for both mother and baby. In this study, we developed artificial intelligence models to detect and predict preeclampsia from electrocardiograms (ECGs) in point-of-care settings.

Methods

Ten-second 12-lead ECG data was obtained from two large health care settings: University of Tennessee Health Science Center (UTHSC) and Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist (AHWFB). UTHSC data was split into 80% training and 20% holdout data. The model used a modified ResNet convolutional neural network, taking one-dimensional raw ECG signals comprising 12 channels as an input, to predict risk of preeclampsia. Sub-analyses were performed to assess the predictive accuracy for preeclampsia prediction within 30, 60, or 90 days before diagnosis.

Results

The UTHSC cohort included 904 ECGs from 759 females (78.8% African American) with a mean ± sd age of 27.3 ± 5.0 years. The AHWFB cohort included 817 ECGs from 141 females (45.4 African American) with a mean ± sd age of 27.4 ± 5.9 years. The cross-validated ECG-AI model yielded an AUC (95% CI) of 0.85 (0.77-0.93) on UTHSC holdout data, and an AUC (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.77-0.84) on AHWFB data. The sub-analysis of different time windows before preeclampsia prediction resulted in AUCs (95% CI) of 0.92 (0.84-1.00), 0.89 (0.81-0.98) and 0.90 (0.81-0.98) when tested on ECGs 30 days, 60 days and 90 days, respectively, before diagnosis. When assessed on early onset preeclampsia (preeclampsia diagnosed at <34 weeks of pregnancy), the model's AUC (95% CI) was 0.98 (0.89-1.00).

Discussion

We conclude that preeclampsia can be identified with high accuracy via application of AI models to ECG data.