Adolescent body mass index and changes in pre-pregnancy body mass index in relation to risk of gestational diabetes

Pharmaceutical Agents as Potential Drivers in the Development of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) rose abruptly in the mid 1990s, is continuing to increase, and has now been noted in many countries. By 2030, 25% of American patients diagnosed with rectal cancer will be 49 years or younger. The large majority of EOCRC cases are not found in patients with germline cancer susceptibility mutations (eg, Lynch syndrome) or inflammatory bowel disease. Thus, environmental or lifestyle factors are suspected drivers. Obesity, sedentary lifestyle, diabetes mellitus, smoking, alcohol, or antibiotics affecting the gut microbiome have been proposed. However, these factors, which have been present since the 1950s, have not yet been conclusively linked to the abrupt increase in EOCRC. The sharp increase suggests the introduction of a new risk factor for young people. We hypothesized that the driver may be an off-target effect of a pharmaceutical agent (ie, one requiring regulatory approval before its use in the general population or an off-label use of a previously approved agent) in a genetically susceptible subgroup of young adults. If a pharmaceutical agent is an EOCRC driving factor, regulatory risk mitigation strategies could be used.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the possibility that pharmaceutical agents serve as risk factors for EOCRC.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study. Data including demographics, comorbidities, and complete medication dispensing history were obtained from the electronic medical records database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, a state-mandated health provider covering 26% of the Israeli population. The participants included 941 patients with EOCRC (≤50 years of age) diagnosed during 2001-2019 who were density matched at a ratio of 1:10 with 9410 control patients. Patients with inflammatory bowel disease and those with a known inherited cancer susceptibility syndrome were excluded. An advanced machine learning algorithm based on gradient boosted decision trees coupled with Bayesian model optimization and repeated data sampling was used to sort through the very high-dimensional drug dispensing data to identify specific medication groups that were consistently linked with EOCRC while allowing for synergistic or antagonistic interactions between medications. Odds ratios for the identified medication classes were obtained from a conditional logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Out of more than 800 medication classes, we identified several classes that were consistently associated with EOCRC risk across independently trained models. Interactions between medication groups did not seem to substantially affect the risk. In our analysis, drug groups that were consistently positively associated with EOCRC included beta blockers and valerian (Valeriana officinalis). Antibiotics were not consistently associated with EOCRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that the development of EOCRC may be correlated with prior use of specific medications. Additional analyses should be used to validate the results. The mechanism of action inducing EOCRC by candidate pharmaceutical agents will then need to be determined.

Glucose intolerance in pregnancy and risk of early-onset type 2 diabetes: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of type 2 diabetes among women with glucose intolerance during pregnancy that does not meet gestational diabetes criteria requires further investigation. We aimed to explore the associations between various degrees of gestational glucose intolerance and the risk of type 2 diabetes in young adulthood.

METHODS

For this population-based cohort study, the national Israeli conscription database was linked to Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), the second-largest state-mandated health provider in Israel. We included 177 241 women who underwent a pre-recruitment evaluation at adolescence (age 16-20 years), 1 year before mandatory military service, and later underwent, from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2019, two-step gestational diabetes screening with a 50 g glucose challenge test (GCT) based on a threshold of 140 mg/dL (7·8 mmol/L), followed as needed by a 100 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Abnormal OGTT values were defined according to the Carpenter-Coustan thresholds: 95 mg/dL (5·3 mmol/L) or higher in the fasting state; 180 mg/dL (10·0 mmol/L) or higher at 1 h; 155 mg/dL (8·6 mmol/L) or higher at 2 h; and 140 mg/dL (7·8 mmol/L) or higher at 3 h. The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes in the MHS diabetes registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for incident type 2 diabetes.

FINDINGS

During a cumulative follow-up of 1 882 647 person-years, and with a median follow-up of 10·8 (IQR 5·2-16·4) years, 1262 women were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Crude incidence rates of type 2 diabetes were 2·6 (95% CI 2·4-2·9) per 10 000 person-years in women with gestational normoglycaemia, 8·9 (7·4-10·6) per 10 000 person-years in women with an abnormal GCT and normal OGTT, 26·1 (22·4-30·1) per 10 000 person-years in women with one abnormal OGTT value (in the fasting state or 1 h, 2 h, or 3 h post-challenge), and 71·9 (66·0-78·3) per 10 000 person-years in women with gestational diabetes. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, adolescent BMI, and age at gestational screening, the risk of type 2 diabetes was higher, compared to the gestational normoglycaemia group, in women with an abnormal GCT and normal OGTT (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3·39 [95% CI 2·77-4·16]; p<0·0001), in women with one abnormal OGTT value (9·11 [7·64-10·86]; p<0·0001), and in women with gestational diabetes (24·84 [21·78-28·34]; p<0·0001). The risk of type 2 diabetes was modestly increased in women with isolated elevated fasting glucose (adjusted HR 11·81 [95% CI 8·58-16·25]; p<0·0001), and in women with gestational diabetes and an abnormal fasting glucose (38·02 [32·41-44·61]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Gestational glucose intolerance, including conditions not meeting gestational diabetes criteria of the two-step strategy, confers a high risk of type 2 diabetes in young adulthood. These conditions should be recognised as risk factors for type 2 diabetes, especially among women with abnormal fasting glucose concentrations during pregnancy.

FUNDING

None.

Exploring COVID-19 transmission patterns and key factors during epidemics caused by three major strains in Asia

The COVID-19 epidemic has lasted for more than two years since the outbreak in late 2019. An urgent and challenging question is how to systematically evaluate epidemic developments in different countries, during different periods, and to determine which measures that could be implemented are key for successful epidemic prevention. In this study, SBD distance-based K-shape clustering and hierarchical clustering methods were used to analyse epidemics in Asian countries. For the hierarchical clustering, epidemic time series were divided into three periods (epidemics induced by the Original/Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants separately). Standard deviations, the Hurst index, mortality rates, peak value of confirmed cases per capita, average growth rates, and the control efficiency of each period were used to characterize the epidemics. In addition, the total numbers of cases in the different countries were analysed by correlation and regression in relation to 15 variables that could have impacts on COVID-19. Finally, some suggestions on prevention and control measures for each category of country are given. We found that the total numbers of cases per million of a population, total deaths per million and mortality rates were highly correlated with the proportion of people aged over 65 years, the prevalence of multiple diseases, and the national GDP. We also found significant associations between case numbers and vaccination rates, health expenditures, and stringency of control measures. Vaccinations have played a positive role in COVID-19, with a gradual decline in mortality rates in later periods, and are still playing protective roles against the Delta and Omicron strains. The stringency of control measures taken by a government is not an indicator of the appropriateness of a country's response to the outbreak, and a higher index does not necessarily mean more effective measures; a combination of factors such as national vaccination rates, the country's economic foundation and the availability of medical equipment is also needed. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".