Development of the PREDS score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with Ebola virus disease under advanced supportive care: Results from the EVISTA cohort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Embedding treatment in stronger care systems

A key lesson from the west Africa (2014-16) Ebola disease epidemic was that outbreak responses fail when they respond to patients through a narrow clinical lens without considering the broader community and social context of care. Here, in the second of two Series papers on the modern landscape of Ebola disease, we review progress made in the last decade to improve patient-centred care. Although the biosafety imperatives of treating Ebola disease remain, recent advances show how to mitigate these so that patients are cared for in a safe and dignified manner that encourages early treatment-seeking behaviour and provides support after the return of patients to their communities. We review advances in diagnostics, including faster Ebola disease detection via real-time RT-PCR, and consider design improvements in Ebola disease treatment units that enhance patient safety and dignity. We also review advances in care provision, such as the integration of palliative care and mobile communication into routine care, and address how greater access to research is possible through harmonised clinical trials. Finally, we discuss how strengthened community engagement and psychosocial programmes are addressing stigma and providing holistic support for survivors.

Ebola disease: bridging scientific discoveries and clinical application

The west Africa Ebola disease epidemic (2014-16) marked a historic change of course for patient care during emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The epidemic response was a failure in many ways-a slow, cumbersome, and disjointed effort by a global architecture that was not fit for purpose for a rapidly spreading outbreak. In the most affected countries, health-care workers and other responders felt helpless-dealing with an overwhelming number of patients but with few, if any, tools at their disposal to provide high-quality care. These inadequacies, however, led to attention and innovation. The decade since then has seen remarkable achievements in clinical care for Ebola disease, including the approval of the first vaccines and treatments. In this paper, the first in a two-part Series, we reflect on this progress and provide expert summary of the modern landscape of Ebola disease, highlighting the priorities and ongoing activities aimed at further improving patient survival and wellbeing in the years ahead.

Improving Ebola virus disease outbreak control through targeted post-exposure prophylaxis

Ebola virus disease kills more than half of people infected. Since the disease is transmitted via close human contact, identifying individuals at the highest risk of developing the disease is possible on the basis of the type of contact (correlated with viral exposure). Different candidates for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP; ie, vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibodies) each have their specific benefits and limitations, which we discuss in this Viewpoint. Approved monoclonal antibodies have been found to reduce mortality in people with Ebola virus disease. As monoclonal antibodies act swiftly by directly targeting the virus, they are promising candidates for targeted PEP in contacts at high risk of developing disease. This intervention could save lives, halt viral transmission, and, ultimately, help curtail outbreak propagation. We explore how a strategic integration of monoclonal antibodies and vaccines as PEP could provide both immediate and long-term protection against Ebola virus disease, highlighting ongoing clinical research that aims to refine this approach, and discuss the transformative potential of a successful PEP strategy to help control viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

Urgent considerations for booster vaccination strategies against Ebola virus disease

With two endorsed and prophylactic vaccines against Zaire ebolavirus (referred to hereafter as EBOV), the number of individuals vaccinated against EBOV worldwide is estimated to range between 500 000 and 1 000 000 individuals, increasing with every renewed EBOV threat and vaccination campaign. Therefore, re-exposure of previously vaccinated health-care workers, and possibly community members, could become more frequent. In the absence of long-term data on vaccine efficacy and duration of protection, we urgently need to understand revaccination strategies that could maximise the level of protection. In this Personal View, we highlight the scarcity of available evidence to guide revaccination recommendations for the accumulating groups of previously vaccinated communities or front-line health-care workers that could be redeployed or re-exposed in the next EBOV outbreak(s). This evidence base is crucial to identify optimal target populations and the frequency of booster doses, and guide vaccine interchangeability (especially in settings with limited or unpredictable vaccine supplies), while preventing vaccine mistrust, equity concerns, and exclusion of vulnerable populations. We discuss five priority gaps (to whom, when, and how frequently, to provide booster doses; long-term correlates and thresholds of protection; the effect of vector-directed immunity and viral variant protection; comparative research in mix-and-match schedules; and implementation concerns) that should be urgently tackled to adapt the initial EBOV prophylactic vaccination strategies considering potential booster dose vaccinations.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prognostication Machine Learning Model in Ebola Virus Disease Based on Iterative Point-of-Care Biomarkers

Background

Although multiple prognostic models exist for Ebola virus disease mortality, few incorporate biomarkers, and none has used longitudinal point-of-care serum testing throughout Ebola treatment center care.

Methods

This retrospective study evaluated adult patients with Ebola virus disease during the 10th outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ebola virus cycle threshold (Ct; based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) and point-of-care serum biomarker values were collected throughout Ebola treatment center care. Four iterative machine learning models were created for prognosis of mortality. The base model used age and admission Ct as predictors. Ct and biomarkers from treatment days 1 and 2, days 3 and 4, and days 5 and 6 associated with mortality were iteratively added to the model to yield mortality risk estimates. Receiver operating characteristic curves for each iteration provided period-specific areas under curve with 95% CIs.

Results

Of 310 cases positive for Ebola virus disease, mortality occurred in 46.5%. Biomarkers predictive of mortality were elevated creatinine kinase, aspartate aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), alanine aminotransferase, and potassium; low albumin during days 1 and 2; elevated C-reactive protein, BUN, and potassium during days 3 and 4; and elevated C-reactive protein and BUN during days 5 and 6. The area under curve substantially improved with each iteration: base model, 0.74 (95% CI, .69-.80); days 1 and 2, 0.84 (95% CI, .73-.94); days 3 and 4, 0.94 (95% CI, .88-1.0); and days 5 and 6, 0.96 (95% CI, .90-1.0).

Conclusions

This is the first study to utilize iterative point-of-care biomarkers to derive dynamic prognostic mortality models. This novel approach demonstrates that utilizing biomarkers drastically improved prognostication up to 6 days into patient care.

Ebola outbreak in Guinea, 2021: Clinical care of patients with Ebola virus disease

Background

Experience from the Zaire Ebolavirus epidemic in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (2018-2020) demonstrates that early initiation of essential critical care and administration of Zaire Ebolavirus specific monoclonal antibodies may be associated with improved outcomes among patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD).

Objectives

This series describes 13 EVD patients and 276 patients with suspected EVD treated during a Zaire Ebolavirus outbreak in Guinea in 2021.

Method

Patients with confirmed or suspected EVD were treated in two Ebola treatment centres (ETC) in the region of N'zérékoré. Data were reviewed from all patients with suspected or confirmed EVD hospitalised in these two ETCs during the outbreak (14 February 2021 - 19 June 2021). Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies, were available 2 weeks after onset of the outbreak.

Results

Nine of the 13 EVD patients (age range: 22-70 years) survived. The four EVD patients who died, including one pregnant woman, presented with multi-organ dysfunction and died within 48 h of admission. All eight patients who received Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies survived. Four of the 13 EVD patients were health workers. Improvement of ETC design facilitated implementation of WHO-recommended 'optimized supportive care for EVD'. In this context, pragmatic clinical training was integrated in routine ETC activities. Initial clinical manifestations of 13 confirmed EVD patients were similar to those of 276 patients with suspected, but subsequently non confirmed EVD. These patients suffered from other acute infections (e.g. malaria in 183 of 276 patients; 66%). Five of the 276 patients with suspected EVD died. One of these five patients had Lassa virus disease and a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) co-infection.

Conclusion

Multidisciplinary outbreak response teams can rapidly optimise ETC design. Trained clinical teams can provide WHO-recommended optimised supportive care, including safe administration of Ebola-specific monoclonal antibodies. Pragmatic training in essential critical care can be integrated in routine ETC activities.

Contribution

This article describes clinical realities associated with implementation of WHO-recommended standards of 'optimized supportive care' and administration of Ebola virus specific treatments. In this context, the importance of essential design principles of ETCs is underlined, which allow continuous visual contact and verbal interaction of health workers and families with their patients. Elements that may contribute to further quality of care improvements for patients with confirmed or suspected EVD are discussed.

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in 2022: A spotlight on a re-emerging global health menace

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a rare but highly contagious and lethal disease that occurs predominantly in African countries, with a case-fatality rate of 30-90%. The causative viral pathogens of EVD are within the genus Ebolavirus in the family Filoviridae. The primary route of human-to-human transmission is through direct contact with blood, bodily fluids and secretions from infected individuals. Direct contact with virally contaminated objects and sexual transmission have also been reported. Management of EVD is aggressive supportive care with possibly new therapeutic options. On 20 September 2022, an EVD outbreak was declared in Uganda, caused by Sudan ebolavirus. As of 7 November 2022, a total of 136 confirmed cases, 53 confirmed deaths have been reported, including 18 cases with seven deaths among healthcare workers. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), an EVD outbreak was also declared on 22 August 2022 (which ended on 27 September 2022); with only one case, a middle-aged woman. At the time when most countries in the world have been occupied with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the recent human monkeypox outbreak, these two outbreaks of EVD have the potential to significantly add to the burden on global health. Authorities need to augment their multi-faceted response, including stringent contact tracing and border control, to avoid the catastrophe of the 2014-2016 EVD epidemic.