Temporal PCB and mercury trends in Lake Erie fish communities: a dynamic linear modeling analysis

Evaluating the trophic transfer of PCBs from fish to humans: Insights from a synergism of environmental monitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling

Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) within fish tissues has prompted many states to issue consumption advisories. In Pennsylvania such advisories suggest one meal per month for most game species harvested from Lake Erie; however, these advisories do not account for the emergent properties of regional PCB mixtures, and the downstream accumulation of PCB congeners into human tissues is poorly documented. This study aimed to demonstrate the utility of pairing environmental monitoring with pharmacokinetic modeling for the purpose of estimating dietary PCB exposure in humans. We qualified and quantified the PCB congeners present in the filets of five Lake Erie fish species and used these data to estimate exposure under consumption scenarios that matched or exceeded the advisories. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling was then employed to predict PCB accumulation within seven tissue compartments of a hypothetical man and woman over 10 years. Twenty-one congeners were detected between the five fish species at concentrations ranging from 56.0 to 411.7 ng/g. Predicted accumulation in human tissues varied based on tissue type, the species consumed, biological sex, and fish-consumption rate. Notably, steady-state concentrations were higher in fatty tissue compartments ("Fat" and "Liver") and across all tissues in women compared to men. This study serves as a preliminary blueprint for generating predictions of site-specific and tissue-specific exposure through the integration of environmental monitoring and pharmacokinetic modeling. Although the details may vary across applications, this simple approach could complement traditional exposure assessments for vulnerable communities in the Great Lakes region that continue to suffer from legacy contamination.

Spatiotemporal changes in largemouth bass mercury concentrations from Connecticut waterbodies, 1995-2021

We evaluated spatiotemporal changes in the mean and variation in largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) mercury concentrations over three discrete time periods (1995, 2005-2006, and 2019-2021) across 56 Connecticut waterbodies. We detected largemouth bass raw mercury concentrations that exceeded the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Fish Tissue Residue Criterion (≥ 0.30 µg g^-1 ww) in 75.1%, 63.3%, and 47.7% of all fish sampled during 1995, 2005-2006, and 2019-2021, respectively. Total length (TL)-adjusted largemouth bass mercury concentrations declined across all ecoregions in Connecticut between subsequent sampling periods but increased between 2005-2006 and 2019-2021 in the Northwest Hills/Uplands ecoregion. The coefficient of variation (CV) of largemouth bass TL-adjusted mercury concentrations increased through time, increasing from 25.78% during 1995 to 36.47% during 2019-2021. The probability of a largemouth bass having a raw mercury concentration > 0.30 µg g^-1 ww increased with total length (TL), but the TL with a 50% probability varied across ecoregions and periods. The variation in largemouth bass mercury concentrations highlights the roles that changes to individual behaviors, food web structure, lake properties, and legacy mercury may play in shaping broad patterns and trends in mercury consumption risks.

Influence of Feeding Ecology on Legacy Organochlorine Contaminants in Freshwater Fishes of Lake Erie

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in biota are influenced by ecological, physiological, and physicochemical properties; however, there is a need for a better understanding about the interplay of these parameters on POP dynamics and fate. To address this, POPs in three Lake Erie freshwater fishes (freshwater drum, Aplodinotus grunniens; walleye, Sander vitreus; and white perch, Morone americana) with different feeding ecologies were assessed using life history characteristics and three stable isotopes (δ¹³ C, δ¹⁵ N, and δ³⁴ S). Lipid normalized POP concentrations were in the range of past studies and were generally similar among the three species when all ages were combined. Principal component analysis (PCA) found the two significant PCs (explaining 59% and 10% of the variation), with all POPs loading significantly onto PC1, which indicated a common source of contamination, likely legacy sediment loads. Loadings on both PCs were correlated with POP log K_OW . Age, habitat use (δ¹³ C and δ³⁴ S), trophic position (δ¹⁵ N) and interactions between age and δ¹⁵ N, age and species, and δ¹⁵ N and δ³⁴ S were significant predictors of POP concentration based on PC1 scores, whereas δ¹³ C and species were significant predictors of PC2 scores. The similar concentrations among the species, yet variation related to the ecology (age and trophic position) across individuals demonstrates the complexity of contaminant dynamics in freshwater fish in a large lake system and the need to consider variation across individuals within species. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:3421-3433. © 2021 SETAC.

An assessment of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in fish

The importance of fish consumption as the primary pathway of human exposure to mercury and the establishment of fish consumption advisories to protect human health have led to large fish tissue monitoring programs worldwide. Data on fish tissue mercury concentrations collected by state, tribal, and provincial governments via contaminant monitoring programs have been compiled into large data bases by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Great Lakes National Monitoring Program Office (GLNPO), the Ontario Ministry of the Environment's Fish Contaminants Monitoring and Surveillance Program (FMSP), and many others. These data have been used by a wide range of governmental and academic investigators worldwide to examine long-term and recent trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations. The largest component of the trend literature is for North American freshwater species important in recreational fisheries. This review of temporal trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations focused on published results from freshwater fisheries of North America as well as marine fisheries worldwide. Trends in fish tissue mercury concentrations in North American lakes with marked overall decreases were reported over the period 1972-2016. These trends are consistent with reported mercury emission declines as well as trends in wet deposition across the U.S. and Canada. More recently, a leveling-off in the rate of decreases or increases in fish tissue mercury concentrations has been reported. Increased emissions of mercury from global sources beginning between 1990 and 1995, despite a decrease in North American emissions, have been advanced as an explanation for the observed changes in fish tissue trends. In addition to increased atmospheric deposition, the other factors identified to explain the observed mercury increases in the affected fish species include a systematic shift in the food-web structure with the introduction of non-native species, creating a new or expanding role for sediments as a net source for mercury. The influences of climate change have also been identified as contributing factors, including considerations such as increases in temperature (resulting in metabolic changes and higher uptake rates of methylmercury), increased rainfall intensity and runoff (hydrologic export of organic matter carrying Hg^II from watersheds to surface water), and water level fluctuations that alter either the methylation of mercury or the mobilization of monomethylmercury. The primary source of mercury exposure in the human diet in North America is from the commercial fish and seafood market which is dominated (>90%) by marine species. However, very little information is available on mercury trends in marine fisheries. Most of the data used in the published marine trend studies are assembled from earlier reports. The data collection efforts are generally intermittent, and the spatial and fish-size distribution of the target species vary widely. As a result, convincing evidence for the existence of fish tissue mercury trends in marine fish is generally lacking. However, there is some evidence from sampling of large, long-lived commercially-important fish showing both lower mercury concentrations in the North Atlantic in response to reduced anthropogenic mercury emission rates in North America and increases in fish tissue mercury concentrations over time in the North Pacific in response to increased mercury loading.

Tissue Distribution and Immunomodulation in Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) Following Dietary Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyl Aroclors and Food Deprivation

Although most countries banned manufacturing of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) over 40 years ago, PCBs remain a global concern for wildlife and human health due to high bioaccumulation and biopersistance. PCB uptake mechanisms have been well studied in many taxa; however, less is known about depuration rates and how post-exposure diet can influence PCB concentrations and immune response in fish and wildlife populations. In a controlled laboratory environment, we investigated the influence of subchronic dietary exposure to two PCB Aroclors and food deprivation on tissue-specific concentrations of total PCBs and PCB homologs and innate immune function in channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus). Overall, we found that the concentration of total PCBs and PCB homologs measured in whole body, fillet, and liver tissues declined more slowly in food-deprived fish, with slowest depuration observed in the liver. Additionally, fish that were exposed to PCBs had lower plasma cortisol concentrations, reduced phagocytic oxidative burst activity, and lower cytotoxic activity, suggesting that PCBs can influence stress and immune responses. However, for most measures of immune function, the effects of food deprivation had a larger effect on immune response than did PCB exposure. Taken together, these results suggest that short-term dietary exposure to PCBs can increase toxicity of consumable fish tissues for several weeks, and that PCB mixtures modulate immune and stress responses via multiple pathways. These results may inform development of human consumption advisories and can help predict and understand the influence of PCBs on fish health.

Dioxins in Great Lakes fish: Past, present and implications for future monitoring

Dioxins/furans are considered among the most toxic anthropogenic chemicals, and are ubiquitous in the environment including in the North American Great Lakes, which contain one fifth of the world's surface freshwater. Our exposure to dioxins/furans is mainly through contaminated diet. Elevated levels of dioxins/furans in Great Lakes fish have resulted in issuance of fish consumption advisories. Here we examine spatial/temporal trends of dioxins/furans in the edible portion (fillet) of fish from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes using the data collected by the Province of Ontario, Canada. Our analyses show that the Toxic Equivalent (TEQ) dioxin/furan concentrations declined between 1989 and 2013 in Lake Trout from Lakes Ontario, Huron and Superior by 91%, 78% and 73%, respectively, but increased in Lake Whitefish from Lake Erie by 138%. An expanded dataset created by combining our data with historical Lake Ontario Lake Trout measurements from the literature showed a greater decline of >96% (from 64 to 2.3 pg/g) between 1977 and 2013. Measurements collected for 30 types of fish show overall low levels but local/regional concerns at some locations in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. Dioxins/furans are globally present in foodstuff and "zero concentration" target is considered impractical. Based on the observations for the Great Lakes in the context of risk to human health from eating fish, it is concluded that comprehensive monitoring of dioxins/furans can be replaced with targeted locations and/or indicator species, and the saved resources can be more efficiently utilized for monitoring of other priority or emerging contaminants.

Mercury Concentrations in Sentinel Fish Exposed to Contaminated Sediments Under a Natural Recovery Strategy Within the St. Lawrence River Area of Concern at Cornwall, Ontario, Canada

Legacy mercury (Hg) sediment deposits are a long-term issue within the St. Lawrence River (Cornwall) area of concern with three depositional areas along the Cornwall, ON waterfront containing sediments that exceed the Ontario Sediment Quality Guidelines for Hg. Assessing the bioavailability of these Hg-contaminated sediments plays a crucial role in evaluating the effectiveness of the Cornwall Sediment Strategy based on a natural recovery approach. We collected specimens of fallfish (Semotilus corporalis), round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) to assess spatial and temporal trends of Hg concentrations in various areas along the Cornwall waterfront, including zones of contaminated sediments and non-contaminated reference sites. This study revealed that (1) Hg concentrations in fish collected from the contaminated zones remain greater than those of fish from non-impacted locations, indicating that natural recovery is not yet achieved, (2) total Hg concentrations in yellow perch collected in 2016 were greater than those obtained during a previous assessment, indicating a reversal of the previously observed long-term declines, and (3) total Hg concentrations in yellow perch collected at the outlet of Gray's Creek compared with yellow perch from contaminated zones, suggesting other important inputs of Hg to the ecosystem than the legacy contaminated sediments.

Assessing mercury contamination patterns of fish communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes: A Bayesian perspective

We examine the spatio-temporal trends of mercury, a well-known global legacy contaminant, in eleven fish species across all of the Canadian Great Lakes. These particular fish species are selected based on their ecological, commercial, and recreational importance to the biodiversity and fishing industry of the Great Lakes. We present a two-pronged Bayesian methodological framework to rigorously assess mercury temporal trends across multiple fish species and locations. In the first part of our analysis, we develop dynamic linear models to delineate the total mercury levels and rates of change, while explicitly accounting for the covariance between fish length and mercury levels in fish tissues. We then use hierarchical modelling to evaluate the spatial variability of mercury contamination between nearshore and offshore locations, as well as to examine the hypothesis that invasive species have induced distinct shifts on fish mercury contamination trends. Our analysis suggests that the general pattern across the Great Lakes was that the elevated mercury concentrations during the 1970s had been subjected to a declining trend throughout the late 1980s/early 1990s, followed by a gradual stabilization after the late 1990s/early 2000s. The declining trend was more pronounced with top fish predators, whereas benthivorous fish species mainly underwent wax-and-wane cycles with a weaker evidence of a long-term declining trend. Historically contaminated regions, designated as Areas of Concern, and bays receiving riverine inputs are still characterized by mercury concentrations that can lead to consumption restrictions. Lake Erie displayed the lowest mercury levels across all the fish species examined. However, several species of commercial importance showed a reversing (increasing) trend in the 2000s, although their current levels do not pose any major concerns for consumption advisories. These recent trend reversals can be linked with systematic shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, and the potentially significant fluxes from the atmosphere.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Mercury Bioaccumulation at Fine and Broad Scales for Two Freshwater Sport Fishes

Bioaccumulation of mercury in sport fish is a complex process that varies in space and time. Both large-scale climatic as well as fine-scale environmental factors are drivers of these space-time variations. In this study, we avail a long-running monitoring program from Ontario, Canada to better understand spatiotemporal variations in fish mercury bioaccumulation at two distinct scales. Focusing on two common large-bodied sport fishes (Walleye and Northern Pike), the data were analyzed at fine- and broad-scales, where fine-scale implies variations in bioaccumulation at waterbody- and year-level and broad-scale captures variations across 3 latitudinal zones (~5° each) and eight time periods (~5-year each). A series of linear mixed-effects models (LMEMs) were employed to capture the spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal variations in mercury bioaccumulation. Fine-scale models were overall better fit than broad-scale models suggesting environmental factors operating at the waterbody-level and annual climatic conditions matter most. Moreover, for both scales, the space time interaction explained most of the variation. The random slopes from the best-fitting broad-scale model were used to define a bioaccumulation index that captures trends within a climate change context. The broad-scale trends suggests of multiple and potentially conflicting climate-driven mechanisms. Interestingly, broad-scale temporal trends showed contrasting bioaccumulation patterns—increasing in Northern Pike and decreasing in Walleye, thus suggesting species-specific ecological differences also matter. Overall, by taking a scale-specific approach, the study highlights the overwhelming influence of fine-scale variations and their interactions on mercury bioaccumulation; while at broad-scale the mercury bioaccumulation trends are summarized within a climate change context.

A Bayesian assessment of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination of fish communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination has historically posed constraints on the recreational and commercial fishing industry in the Great Lakes. Empirical evidence suggests that PCB contamination represents a greater health risk from fish consumption than other legacy contaminants. The present study attempts a rigorous assessment of the spatio-temporal PCB trends in multiple species across the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes. We applied a Bayesian modelling framework, whereby we initially used dynamic linear models to delineate PCB levels and rates of change, while accounting for the role of fish length and lipid content as covariates. We then implemented Bayesian hierarchical modelling to evaluate the temporal PCB trends during the dreissenid pre- and post-invasion periods, as well as the variability among and within the water bodies of the Great Lakes system. Our analysis indicates that Lake Ontario is characterized by the highest PCB levels among nearly all of the fish species examined. Historically contaminated local areas, designated as Areas of Concern, and embayments receiving riverine inputs displayed higher concentrations within each of the water bodies examined. The general temporal trend across the Great Lakes was that the high PCB concentrations during the early 1970s followed a declining trajectory throughout the late 1980s/early 1990s, likely as a result of the reductions in industrial emissions and other management actions. Nonetheless, after the late 1990s/early 2000s, our analysis provided evidence of a decline in the rate at which PCB concentrations in fish were dropping, accompanied by a gradual establishment of species-specific, steady-state concentrations, around which there is considerable year-to-year variability. The overall trends indicate that reduced contaminant emissions have brought about distinct beneficial changes in fish PCB concentrations, but past historical contamination along with other external or internal stressors (e.g., invasive species, climate change) continue to modulate the current levels, thereby posing potential risks to humans through fish consumption.

Mercury, Polychlorinated Biphenyls, Selenium, and Fatty Acids in Tribal Fish Harvests of the Upper Great Lakes

The Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority monitors fish contaminants in Anishinaabe (Great Lake Native American) tribal fisheries. This article updates previously reported trends in two persistent bioaccumulative toxic (PBT) substances that are the primary contributors to consumption advisory limits for these fish: methylmercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Also, we report, for the first time, an analysis of nutritional benefit bioindicators and metrics in these same Upper Great Lakes fish harvests: selenium (Se) and omega-3 fatty acids (PUFA-3s). A novel risk/benefit quantification originally presented by Ginsberg et al. is reported here to characterize the tradeoffs between fatty acid benefits and toxic MeHg health outcomes. We also report a Se benefit metric to characterize the possible protective value against MeHg neurotoxicity based on Ralston et al. Congruent with Anishinaabe cultural motivations to consume fish from their ancestral fisheries, nutritional content was high in locally caught fish and, in some respects, superior to farmed/store-bought fish. These Great Lakes fish still contained levels of PBTs that require careful education and guidance for consumers. However, the contaminant trends suggest that these fish need not be abandoned as important (both culturally and nutritionally) food sources for the Anishinaabe who harvested them.

Polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides concentration patterns and trends in top predator fish of Laurentian Great Lakes from 1999 to 2014

Concentration patterns and temporal trends of legacy persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) contaminants were determined using the Great Lake Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP) top predator fish data from 1999 to 2014 and applying Kendall-Theil robust regression after cluster-based age normalization. For most Great Lakes sites, significant decreasing concentration trends ranging from -4.1% to -21.6% per year (with the only exception being mirex in Lake Erie walleye) were found for PBTs including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichlorethane (DDTs), dieldrin, endrin, chlordane, oxychlordane, nonachlor, mirex, and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) reflecting the successful historical and ongoing reduction of fugitive releases and remediation efforts in the U.S. and Canada including physical removal (dredging) coupled with sediment sequestration. Generally, lower concentrations and faster decreasing trends are observed in western/northern sampling sites compared to eastern/southern sites as the former sites are generally more remote from population centers and industrial activities. PCBs, which can be released from ongoing sources, have the highest concentration, the second slowest decreasing trend, and increasing mass fractions of the contaminants studied suggesting that they will continue to be the legacy contaminant of greatest concern into the future.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Polychlorinated Dioxins-Furans in Lake Trout and Whitefish Composite Samples from Commercial Fisheries in Lakes Erie, Huron, and Superior

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs; sum of 36 congeners) and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs; sum of 17 2,3,7,8-substituted congeners) were measured in 93 composite samples prepared from individual lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) samples collected from Lake Erie, Lake Huron, and Lake Superior. All samples had detectable concentrations of PCBs and PCDD/Fs; maximum PCB concentrations in both trout (750 ng g^-1 whole weight [ww]) and whitefish (210 ng g^-1 ww) were found in composites from fish collected from Lake Huron. The maximum toxic equivalent concentration was found in a lake trout composite sample from Lake Huron (53 pg g^-1 ww). PCB and PCDD/F congener profiles were comparable to patterns observed in fishes collected from other regions of Canada, although concentrations were above those found in other regions. A positive correlation was found between PCB concentrations determined using the historical Aroclor equivalency method and those determined using the sum of the congeners measured (r² = 0.871; Spearman correlation r = 0.917) or using the six indicator PCB congeners (28, 52, 101, 138, 153, and 180; r² = 0.850; Spearman correlation r = 0.935). PCBs were the dominant contributor to the overall toxic equivalent concentrations in the fish composite samples tested. These findings provide insight into PCB and PCDD/F concentrations in two commercially important fish species over a discrete time period.

Mercury Temporal Trends in Top Predator Fish of the Laurentian Great Lakes from 2004 to 2015: Are Concentrations Still Decreasing?

Mercury (Hg) concentration trends in top predator fish (lake trout and walleye) of the Great Lakes (GL) from 2004 to 2015 were determined by Kendall-Theil robust regression with a cluster-based age normalization method to control for the effect of changes in lake trophic status. When data from the GLs (except Lake Erie) are combined, a significant decreasing trend in the lake trout Hg concentrations was found between 2004 and 2015 with an annual decrease of 4.1% per year, consistent with the decline in regional atmospheric Hg emissions and water Hg concentrations. However, a breakpoint was detected with a significant decreasing slope (-8.1% per year) before the breakpoint (2010), and no trend after the breakpoint. When the lakes are examined individually, Lakes Superior and Huron, which are dominated by atmospheric Hg inputs and are more likely than the lower lakes to respond to declining emissions from areas surrounding the GL, have significant decreasing trends with rates between 5.2 and 7.8% per year from 2004 to 2015. These declining trends appear to be driven by decreasing regional atmospheric Hg emissions although they may be partly counterbalanced by other factors, including increasing local emissions, food web changes, eutrophication, and responses to global climate change. Lakes Michigan, Erie and Ontario may have been more impacted by these other factors and their trends changed from decreasing to non-decreasing or increasing in recent years.

Health risk assessment for the consumption of fresh and preserved fish (Alosa agone) from Lago di Como (Northern Italy)

BACKGROUND

Although banned in many countries for decades, DDTs and PCBs still represent a global threat to food safety. As these contaminants are still present in aquatic ecosystems, fish can be an important contributor to their total dietary intake.

OBJECTIVES

Alosa agone specimens were sampled over a period of 10 years (from 2006 to 2015) to provide a representative overview of the DDT and PCB levels of Lago di Como, a deep Italian lake where a DDT input due to secondary sources was observed in recent years. The potential health risk from the consumption of both fresh and preserved fish was evaluated.

RESULTS

While DDT levels have generally decreased during the monitored period, reaching quite stable levels, PCB concentrations were variable, with values exceeding, in some cases, the European Union limit for human consumption and enabling potential carcinogenic effects. However, typical local processing of this fish species markedly appeared to decrease these contaminant levels, thus making the fish product (called missoltino) a safer food.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this work highlighted the need of continuous biomonitoring of those contaminants considered a past issue along with the emergent ones.

Mercury levels in herring gulls and fish: 42 years of spatio-temporal trends in the Great Lakes

Total mercury levels in aquatic birds and fish communities have been monitored across the Canadian Great Lakes by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for the past 42 years (1974-2015). These data (22 sites) were used to examine spatio-temporal variability of mercury levels in herring gull (Larus argentatus) eggs, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), walleye (Sander vitreus), and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). Trends were quantified with dynamic linear models, which provided time-variant rates of change of mercury concentrations. Lipid content (in both fish and eggs) and length in fish were used as covariates in all models. For the first three decades, mercury levels in gull eggs and fish declined at all stations. In the 2000s, trends for herring gull eggs reversed at two sites in Lake Erie and two sites in Lake Ontario. Similar trend reversals in the 2000s were observed for lake trout in Lake Superior and at a single station in Lake Ontario. Mercury levels in lake trout continued to slowly decline at all of the remaining stations, except for Lake Huron, where the levels remained stable. A post-hoc Bayesian regression analysis suggests strong trophic interactions between herring gulls and rainbow smelt in Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, but also pinpoints the likelihood of a trophic decoupling in Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Continued monitoring of mercury levels in herring gulls and fish is required to consolidate these trophic shifts and further evaluate their broader implications.

Are Fish Consumption Advisories for the Great Lakes Adequately Protective against Chemical Mixtures?

BACKGROUND

The North American Great Lakes are home to > 140 types of fish and are famous for recreational and commercial fishing. However, the presence of toxic substances has resulted in the issuance of fish consumption advisories that are typically based on the most restrictive contaminant.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether these advisories, which typically neglect the existence of a mixture of chemicals and their possible additive adverse effects, are adequately protective of the health of humans consuming fish from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes.

METHODS

Using recent fish contaminant monitoring data collected by the government of Ontario, Canada, we simulated advisories using most-restrictive-contaminant (one-chem) and multi-contaminant additive effect (multi-chem) approaches. The advisories from the two simulations were compared to determine if there is any deficiency in the currently issued advisories.

RESULTS

Approximately half of the advisories currently issued are potentially not adequately protective. Of the four Great Lakes studied, the highest percentage of advisories affected are in Lake Ontario if an additive effect is considered. Many fish that are popular for consumption, such as walleye, salmon, bass and trout, would have noticeably more stringent advisories.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvements in the advisories may be needed to ensure that the health of humans consuming fish from the Great Lakes is protected. In this region, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and mercury are the major contaminants causing restrictions on consuming fish, whereas dioxins/furans, toxaphene, and mirex/photomirex are of minor concern. Regular monitoring of most organochlorine pesticides and metals in fish can be discontinued.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Great Lakes fish: Levels, patterns, trends and implications for human exposure

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in edible portions of Great Lakes fish, with the goal of examining patterns/trends and evaluating implications for human exposure. A total of 470 fillets of 18 fish species collected from various parts of the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed for 17 (expanded to 33 in 2009) PBDEs. For a limited number of species, fillet to whole body and fillet to eggs PBDEs were compared to examine pattern and concentration among tissue types. Levels and patterns of PBDEs varied dramatically within and among the 18 fish species. Bottom dwelling Common Carp (and White Sucker) exhibited the highest ∑PBDE levels (27-71ng/g). Lake Trout and Lake Whitefish from Lake Superior had higher levels than those from the other Great Lakes; otherwise the spatial trend was Lake Ontario≫Erie~Huron~Superior. The measured levels would result in restriction on consumption of only Common Carp from the Toronto waterfront area, which is in proximity to the most urbanised region on the Canadian side of the basin. Deca-BDE was the major congener in panfish, while BDE-47 was the major congener in top predators and its contribution to ∑PBDE increased with the contamination. Although ∑PBDE was related to fish length and lipid content when all measurements were pooled, the relationships were variable for individual sampling events (species/location/year). Whole body ∑PBDE for bottom dweller Brown Bullhead and Common Carp were 2.6-4.9 times greater and egg ∑PBDE for four fatty Salmon/Trout species were same to 6.5 times greater than the corresponding fillet concentrations. Levels of major lower brominated PBDEs appear to have declined in fish fillets by 46-74% between 2006/07 and 2012. Although PBDE in existing consumer items will remain in-use for a while, it will likely not result in appreciable accumulation of PBDEs in fish. Based on an overall assessment, regular monitoring of PBDEs in Great Lake fish can be replaced with targeted surveillance and focus can be shifted to other in-use flame retardants.

Using Bayesian hierarchical models to better understand nitrate sources and sinks in agricultural watersheds

Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R² = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope, while instream nitrate retention was positively correlated with nitrate concentration. By quantifying spatial and temporal variability in sources and sinks, the DPM provides new information to better target management actions to the most effective times and places. Given the wide use of ECMs as research and management tools, our approach can be broadly applied in other watersheds and to other materials.

Re-visiting projections of PCBs in Lower Hudson River fish using model emulation

Remedial decision making at large contaminated sediment sites with bioaccumulative contaminants often relies on complex mechanistic models to forecast future concentrations and compare remedial alternatives. Remedial decision-making for the Hudson River PCBs Superfund site involved predictions of future levels of PCBs in Upper Hudson River (UHR) and Lower Hudson River (LHR) fish. This study applied model emulation to evaluate the impact of updated sediment concentrations on the original mechanistic model projections of time to reach risk-based target thresholds in fish in the LHR under Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) and the selected dredging remedy. The model emulation approach used a combination of nonlinear and linear regression models to estimate UHR water PCBs as a function of UHR sediment PCBs and to estimate fish concentrations in the LHR as a function of UHR water PCBs, respectively. Model emulation captured temporal changes in sediment, water, and fish PCBs predicted by the mechanistic model over the emulation period. The emulated model, using updated sediment concentrations and a revised estimate of recovery rate, matched the trend in annual monitoring data for white perch and largemouth bass in the LHR between 1997 and 2014. Our best predictions based on the emulated model indicate that the projected time to reach fish tissue risk-based thresholds in the LHR will take decades longer than the original mechanistic model projections.

A Bayesian assessment of the mercury and PCB temporal trends in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Sander vitreus) from lake Ontario, Ontario, Canada

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and total mercury (THg) are two of the most prevalent contaminants, resulting in restrictive advisories on consuming fish from the Laurentian Great Lakes. The goal of this study is to examine the temporal trends of the two contaminants in walleye (Sander vitreus) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) for Lake Ontario. We employed Bayesian inference techniques to parameterize three different strategies of time series analysis: dynamic linear, exponential decay, and mixed-order modeling. Our analysis sheds light on the role of different covariates (length, lipid content) that can potentially hamper the detection of the actual temporal patterns of fish contaminants. Both PCBs and mercury demonstrate decreasing temporal trends in lake trout males and females. Decreasing PCB trends are evident in walleye, but the mean annual mercury levels are characterized by a "wax and wane" pattern, suggesting that specific fish species may not act as bio-indicators for all contaminants. This finding may be attributed to the shifts in energy trophodynamics along with the food web alterations induced from the introduction of non-native species, the intricate nature of the prey-predator interactions, the periodicities of climate factors, and the year-to-year variability of the potentially significant fluxes from atmosphere or sediments. Finally, a meaningful risk assessment exercise will be to elucidate the role of within-lake fish contaminant variability and evaluate the potential bias introduced when drawing inference from pooled datasets.

Ecotoxicology of polychlorinated biphenyls in fish--a critical review

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are widespread persistent anthropogenic contaminants that can accumulate in tissues of fish. The toxicity of PCBs and their transformation products has been investigated for nearly 50 years, but there is a lack of consensus regarding the effects of these environmental contaminants on wild fish populations. The objective of this review is to critically examine these investigations and evaluate publicly available databases for evidence of effects of PCBs in wild fish. Biological activity of PCBs is limited to a small proportion of PCB congeners [e.g., dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs)] and occurs at concentrations that are typically orders of magnitude higher than PCB levels detected in wild fish. Induction of biomarkers consistent with PCB exposure (e.g., induction of cytochrome P450 monooxygenase system) has been evaluated frequently and shown to be induced in fish from some environments, but there does not appear to be consistent reports of damage (i.e., biomarkers of effect) to biomolecules (i.e., oxidative injury) in these fish. Numerous investigations of endocrine system dysfunction or effects on other organ systems have been conducted in wild fish, but collectively there is no consistent evidence of PCB effects on these systems in wild fish. Early life stage toxicity of DL-PCBs does not appear to occur at concentrations reported in wild fish embryos, and results do not support an association between PCBs and decreased survival of early life stages of wild fish. Overall, there appears to be little evidence that PCBs have had any widespread effect on the health or survival of wild fish.

Temporal and spatial trends in freshwater fish tissue mercury concentrations associated with mercury emissions reductions

Mercury (Hg) concentrations were monitored from 1999 to 2011 in largemouth bass (LMB) and yellow perch (YP) in 23 lakes in Massachusetts USA during a period of significant local and regional Hg emissions reductions. Average LMB tissue Hg concentration decreases of 44% were seen in 13 of 16 lakes in a regional Hg "hotspot" area. YP in all lakes sampled in this area decreased 43% after the major emissions reductions. Comparative decreases throughout the remainder of the state were 13% and 19% for LMB and YP respectively. Annual tissue mercury concentration rate decreases were 0.029 (LMB) and 0.016 mg Hg/kg/yr (YP) in the hotspot. In lakes around the rest of the state, LMB showed no trend and YP Hg decreased 0.0068 mg Hg/kg/yr. Mercury emissions from major point sources in the hotspot area decreased 98%, and 93% in the rest of the state from the early 1990s to 2008. The significant declines in fish Hg concentrations in many lakes occurred over the second half of a two decade decrease in Hg emissions primarily from municipal solid waste combustors and, secondarily, from other combustion point sources. In addition to the substantial Hg emissions reductions achieved in Massachusetts, further regional, national and global emissions reductions are needed for fish Hg levels to decrease below fish consumption advisory levels.

Occurrence of halogenated contaminants in inland and coastal fish from Ghana: levels, dietary exposure assessment and human health implications

Fish consumption is known to have several health benefits for humans. However, the accumulation of toxic contaminants, such as PCBs, PBDEs and HBCDs in fish could pose health hazards. These contaminants were measured in tilapia fish species collected from Ghana. Mean levels were PCBs (62 ng/g lw), PBDEs (7.3 ng/g lw) and HBCDs (1.2 ng/g lw) and the predominance of CB-153, CB-138, CB-180, BDE-47 and α-HBCD is in concordance with scientific literature. The congener profiles of PBDEs and PCBs in the fish suggest that sources of Penta- and Deca-BDE technical mixtures as well as technical PCB mixture (Clophen A60) exist in Ghana, while textile operations and associated release of untreated wastewater are likely to be significant sources of HBCDs. Comparison of the results with some reported studies showed moderate contamination in Ghana although Ghana is a developing country in Africa. Concentrations of PCBs measured in all the specimens in this study were below the food safety guidelines issued by the Food and Drug Administration, USA and the European Commission. The calculated hazard index levels of the target contaminants were below the threshold value of one, indicating that the levels of the target contaminants do not seem to constitute a health risk via fish consumption, with regard to PCBs, PBDEs and HBCDs, based on the limited number of samples that was accounted for in this study. However, due to the continuous discharge of untreated effluents, follow up studies are warranted as the consumption of fish is the primary route of human exposure to PCBs. This maiden report on the status of PBDEs and HBCDs in fish from Ghana will contribute to the knowledge about environmental contamination by POPs in a less industrialized region of the world so far sparsely covered in the literature.

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada)

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.