Identifying the habitat suitability and built-in corridors for Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) movement in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Predicting the potential habitat of bears under a changing climate in Nepal

In Nepal, the distributions of three bear species vary: sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in the lowlands, Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in the mid-hills, and brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the high Himalayas. We utilized 179 occurrence points for sloth bears, 199 for Asiatic black bears, and 41 points for brown bears to construct a habitat model incorporating climate and topographic variables. Employing various species distribution modeling algorithms in BIOMOD2, the model predicts suitable habitats spanning 10,971.75 km2 for sloth bears; 29,470.75 km2 for Asiatic black bears; and 6152.97 km2 for brown bears. Within protected areas, the habitat for sloth bears is 4120.56 km2, that for Asiatic black bears is 9688.67 km2, and that for brown bears is 4538.67 km2. Chitwan National Park emerged as the prime sloth bear habitat with a core area of 918.55 km2 and a buffer zone of 726.485 km2. The Annapurna Conservation Area was deemed suitable for Asiatic black bears and brown bears, covering 2802.23 km2 and 2795.91 km2, respectively. The models projected a significant reduction in the habitat of these bear species both inside and outside protected areas. As predicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 scenario, sloth bears may experience 54.9% (2050) and 44.7% (2070) losses, respectively, of habitat; Asiatic black bears, 11.2% (2050) and 16.8% (2070); and brown bears, 68.41% (2050) and 82.20% (2070) losses. The overlap between sloth bears and black bears spans 38.7 km2, and that between brown bears and black bears is 26.6 km2. Notably, all three bear species exhibited suitability correlations with the intermediate temperature of the driest quarter. Examining current and projected habitats provides essential information for guiding conservation strategies and ensuring the conservation of these bear species in the face of climate change.

Modeling spatio-temporal assessment of land use land cover of Lahore and its impact on land surface temperature using multi-spectral remote sensing data

Urban sprawl, also widely known as urbanization, is one of the significant problems in the world. This research aims to assess and predict the urban growth and impact on land surface temperature (LST) of Lahore as well as land use and land cover (LULC) with a cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov chain). LULC and LST distributions were mapped using Landsat (5, 7, and 8) data from 1990, 2004, and 2018. Long-term changes to the landscape were simulated using a CA-Markov model at 14-year intervals from 2018 to 2046. Results indicate that the built-up area was increased from 342.54 (18.41%) to 720.31 (38.71%) km². Meanwhile, barren land, water, and vegetation area was decreased from 728.63 (39.16%) to 544.83 (29.28%) km², from 64.85 (3.49%) to 34.78 (1.87%) km², and from 724.53 (38.94%) to 560.63 (30.13%) km², respectively. In addition, urban index, a non-vegetation index, accurately predicted LST, showing the maximum correlation R² = 0.87 with respect to retrieved LST. According to CA-Markov chain analysis, we can predict the growth of built-up area from 830.22 to 955.53 km² between 2032 and 2046, based on the development from 1990 to 2018. As urban index as the predictor anticipated that the LST 20-23 °C and 24-27 °C, regions would all decline in coverage from 5.30 to 4.79% and 15.79 to 13.77% in 2032 and 2046, while the temperature 36-39 °C regions would all grow in coverage from 15.60 to 17.21% of the city. Our results indicate severe conditions, and the authorities should consider some strategies to mitigate this problem. These findings are significant for the planning and development division to ensure the long-term usage of land resources for urbanization expansion projects in the future.

Activity patterns of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in the moist temperate forests of Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is an environmental indicator species whose activity patterns may be highly impacted by habitat changes. We monitored the monthly and daily activity patterns of black bears in the moist temperate forests of Machiara National Park. We used infrared camera traps and local ecological knowledge for data collection from April 2019 to April 2021. Camera traps recorded 109 [inside forest = 107, outside forest (near crop fields and human settlements) = 2] independent registrations (IR) in 5541 (692.63 ± 36.72, mean ± SD) camera days. We found (i) spring and autumn to be the lowest activity seasons for black bears inside the forest. (ii) The highest activity was recorded in summer, with a peak in August followed closely by July. (iii) The activity level sharply declined after August and halted from December to March, indicative of the bears' hibernation period. Local knowledge revealed that (i) bears remained active from May to November and hibernated the rest of the period. (ii) Bear activity was at its peak inside the forest in summer and outside the forest in autumn when bears sought to raid the widely cultivated maize crop (Zea mays) planted along forest edges. This increased activity outside of the forest is likely driven by decreased food availability inside the forest area and maize crop being a preferred anthropogenic food type for bears. Based on the daily activity pattern, bears exhibited cathemeral behavior (i.e., active throughout the day) with maximum overlap between camera trap and local ecological knowledge data. Human activity may be impacting the daily activity patterns of bears via disturbance and interference. The data collected in this study can help mitigate conflicts between humans and black bears and consequently assist in future conservation of black bears in the area.

The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960-1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily > 3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.