Satellites quantify the spatial extent of cyanobacterial blooms across the United States at multiple scales

Wide ecological niches ensure frequent harmful dinoflagellate blooms

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) and their consequences cause multiple devastating effects in various freshwater, brackish and marine ecosystems. However, HAB species at moderate population densities have positive ecological roles as primary producers of organic matter and food for zooplankton and fish. They also enhance benthic-pelagic coupling and participate in the biogeochemical cycles. The consequences of HABs are transported across the conventional environmental boundaries by numerous cascade effects in the food webs and beyond. Meanwhile, forecasts of bloom events are still limited, largely because of scarcity of reliable information on ecological niches of the bloom-forming algae. To fill up this knowledge gap, this study focused on dinoflagellates, a diverse group of mostly photosynthesizing protists (unicellular eukaryotes) capable of mixotrophy, since they play a key role in primary production and formation of blooms in marine and brackish waters worldwide. In this study, ecological niches of 17 abundant bloom-forming dinoflagellate species from coastal regions of the southern Baltic Sea were identified for the first time. It was hypothesized that wider ecological niches ensure more frequent dinoflagellate blooms compared to the species with narrower niches. This hypothesis was verified using the long-term (44 years) database on phytoplankton abundance and physical-chemical characteristics of the environment. It were analyzed 4534 datasets collected from 1972 to 2016. Fourteen abiotic parameters (water temperature, salinity, Secchi depth, pH, Chl a, and concentration of basic nutrients) were considered as ecological niche dimensions. The Principal Component Analysis presented the dissolved inorganic nitrogen, total nitrogen, Chl a, and temperature as principal niche dimensions of dinoflagellates. The algal bloom criteria were refined. It was for the first time proved statistically that HAB frequency of dinoflagellate species robustly correlated with the width of their ecological niches.

Satellite Remote Sensing: A Tool to Support Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Recreational Health Advisories in a California Reservoir

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) can harm people, animals, and affect consumptive and recreational use of inland waters. Monitoring cyanoHABs is often limited. However, chlorophyll-a (chl-a) is a common water quality metric and has been shown to have a relationship with cyanobacteria. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently updated their previous 1999 cyanoHAB guidance values (GVs) to be more practical by basing the GVs on chl-a concentration rather than cyanobacterial counts. This creates an opportunity for widespread cyanoHAB monitoring based on chl-a proxies, with satellite remote sensing (SRS) being a potentially powerful tool. We used Sentinel-2 (S2) and Sentinel-3 (S3) to map chl-a and cyanobacteria, respectively, classified chl-a values according to WHO GVs, and then compared them to cyanotoxin advisories issued by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) at San Luis Reservoir, key infrastructure in California's water system. We found reasonably high rates of total agreement between advisories by DWR and SRS, however rates of agreement varied for S2 based on algorithm. Total agreement was 83% for S3, and 52%-79% for S2. False positive and false negative rates for S3 were 12% and 23%, respectively. S2 had 12%-80% false positive rate and 0%-38% false negative rate, depending on algorithm. Using SRS-based chl-a GVs as an early indicator for possible exposure advisories and as a trigger for in situ sampling may be effective to improve public health warnings. Implementing SRS for cyanoHAB monitoring could fill temporal data gaps and provide greater spatial information not available from in situ measurements alone.

Assessing the relationship between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory-related hospital visits: Green bay, Wisconsin 2017-2019

Potential acute and chronic human health effects associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, including respiratory symptoms, are an understudied public health concern. We examined the relationship between estimated cyanobacteria biomass and the frequency of respiratory-related hospital visits for residents living near Green Bay, Lake Michigan, Wisconsin during 2017-2019. Remote sensing data from the Cyanobacteria Assessment Network was used to approximate cyanobacteria exposure through creation of a metric for cyanobacteria chlorophyll-a (ChlBS). We obtained counts of hospital visits for asthma, wheezing, and allergic rhinitis from the Wisconsin Hospital Association for ZIP codes within a 3-mile radius of Green Bay. We analyzed weekly counts of hospital visits versus cyanobacteria, which was modelled as a continuous measure (ChlBS) or categorized according to World Health Organization's (WHO) alert levels using Poisson generalized linear models. Our data included 2743 individual hospital visits and 114 weeks of satellite derived cyanobacteria biomass indicator data. Peak values of ChlBS were observed between the months of June and October. Using the WHO alert levels, 60% of weeks were categorized as no risk, 19% as Vigilance Level, 15% as Alert Level 1, and 6% as Alert Level 2. In Poisson regression models adjusted for temperature, dewpoint, season, and year, there was no association between ChlBS and hospital visits (rate ratio [RR] [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.98 [0.77, 1.24]). There was also no consistent association between WHO alert level and hospital visits when adjusting for covariates (Vigilance Level: RR [95% CI] 0.88 [0.74, 1.05], Alert Level 1: 0.82 [0.67, 0.99], Alert Level 2: 0.98 [0.77, 1.24], compared to the reference no risk category). Our methodology and model provide a template for future studies that assess the association between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory health.

Forecasting freshwater cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms for Sentinel-3 satellite resolved U.S. lakes and reservoirs

This forecasting approach may be useful for water managers and associated public health managers to predict near-term future high-risk cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) occurrence. Freshwater cyanoHABs may grow to excessive concentrations and cause human, animal, and environmental health concerns in lakes and reservoirs. Knowledge of the timing and location of cyanoHAB events is important for water quality management of recreational and drinking water systems. No quantitative tool exists to forecast cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Publicly available satellite monitoring has proven effective in detecting cyanobacteria biomass near-real time within the United States. Weekly cyanobacteria abundance was quantified from the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard the Sentinel-3 satellite as the response variable. An Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model was applied to forecast World Health Organization (WHO) recreation Alert Level 1 exceedance >12 μg L-1 chlorophyll-a with cyanobacteria dominance for 2192 satellite resolved lakes in the United States across nine climate zones. The INLA model was compared against support vector classifier and random forest machine learning models; and Dense Neural Network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Gneural Network (GNU) neural network models. Predictors were limited to data sources relevant to cyanobacterial growth, readily available on a weekly basis, and at the national scale for operational forecasting. Relevant predictors included water surface temperature, precipitation, and lake geomorphology. Overall, the INLA model outperformed the machine learning and neural network models with prediction accuracy of 90% with 88% sensitivity, 91% specificity, and 49% precision as demonstrated by training the model with data from 2017 through 2020 and independently assessing predictions with data from the 2021 calendar year. The probability of true positive responses was greater than false positive responses and the probability of true negative responses was less than false negative responses. This indicated the model correctly assigned lower probabilities of events when they didn't exceed the WHO Alert Level 1 threshold and assigned higher probabilities when events did exceed the threshold. The INLA model was robust to missing data and unbalanced sampling between waterbodies.

MODIS Terra and Aqua images bring non-negligible effects to phytoplankton blooms derived from satellites in eutrophic lakes

Phytoplankton-induced lake eutrophication has drawn ongoing interest on a global scale. One of the most popular remote sensing satellite data for observing long-term dynamic changes in phytoplankton is Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). However, it is worth noting that MODIS provides two images with different transit times: Terra (local time, about 10:30 am) and Aqua (local time, about 1:30 pm), which may result in a considerable bias in monitoring phytoplankton bloom areas due to the rapid migration of phytoplankton under wind or hydrodynamic conditions. To analyze this quantitatively, we selected MODIS Terra and Aqua images to generate datasets of phytoplankton bloom areas in Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2022. The results showed that Terra more frequently detected larger ranges of phytoplankton blooms than Aqua, whether on daily, monthly, or annual scales. In addition, long-term trend changes, seasonal characteristics, and abrupt years also varied with different transit times. Terra detected mutation years earlier, while Aqua displayed more pronounced seasonal characteristics. There were also differences in sensitivity to climate factors, with Terra being more responsive to temperature and wind speed on monthly and annual scales, while Aqua was more sensitive to nutrient and meteorological factors. These conclusions have also been further confirmed in Lake Chaohu, Lake Dianchi, and Lake Hulun. In conclusion, our findings strongly advocate for a linear relationship to fit Terra to Aqua results to mitigate long-term monitoring errors of phytoplankton blooms in inland lakes (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 101.56). It is advised to utilize satellite data with transit times between 10 am and 1 pm to track phytoplankton bloom changes and to consider the diverse applications resulting from the transit times of Terra and Aqua.

Recent changes in cyanobacteria algal bloom magnitude in large lakes across the contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25 %) lakes in the 2016-2020 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4 %). Bloom magnitude either didn't change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n = 1335, 71 %). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

Temporal characteristics and trends of nitrogen loadings in lake Taihu, China and its influencing mechanism at multiple timescales

Climate warming impact on excessive nitrogen (N) load in sediment favours cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic waters. The nitrate (NO3--N) and ammonium (NH4+-N) are two forms of N loads that contribute to algae blooms. However, little attention is paid to the impact of environmental factors on N loads variations at different time scales. This paper used a well-calibrated and validated EFDC model to investigate the temporal patterns and trends of ammonium and nitrate from June 2016 to June 2017. This paper presented the relationship and effects between these variations and environmental factors using data from satellite and reanalysis-based observations obtained for six meteorological parameters. The relationship and effects between these variations and environmental factors were also examined at different timescales (i.e., daily, monthly and seasonal scales). Model calibration results indicated that measured values reasonably matched simulated values. The validation results revealed that relative error (RE) values were within an acceptable range. The REs of ammonium at East Taihu (S12) and Xu Lake (S23) sampling sites were 55.83% and 57.61%, while that of nitrate was 24.37% (S12) and 41.08%, respectively. The daily analysis of NH4+-N and NO3--N variations was 7.318 ± 3.876 (g/m2/day) and 0.0275 ± 0.222 (g/m2/day), respectively. The monthly analysis showed NH4+-N and NO3-N range from 2.04 to 12.04 (g/m2/day) and 0.0008 to 0.064 (g/m2/day), respectively. The magnitude NH4+-N and NO3--N varied and showed distinct inter-monthly variations. , The relationship between sediment fluxes and meteorological parameters showed the magnitude of correlation coefficient (r) and strength of correlation varied significantly. At daily scales, the relationship of NH4+-N and NO3--N had a significant positive correlation with all meteorological parameters. At monthly, the correlation coefficient (r) of NH4+-N and NO3-N were heterogenous. At daily and monthly scales, air temperature and wind speed are the main drivers affecting sediment N loads' dynamics; however, the influence of relative humidity, precipitation, and evaporation on N loads are smaller. The study demonstrates the contribution of meteorological conditions to the magnitude and timing of N loadings variability in water bodies. The findings provide more insight into lake ecosystem protection and environmental remediation.

Geographic Variability, Seasonality, and Increase in ASPCA Animal Poison Control Center Harmful Blue-Green Algae Calls-United States and Canada, 2010-2022

Harmful cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) exposures can cause illness or death in humans and animals. We characterized American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA) Animal Poison Control Center (APCC) harmful blue-green algae (HBGA) call data, compared it to a measure of harmful algal bloom public awareness, and considered its suitability as a public health information source. ASPCA APCC dog and cat "HBGA exposure" calls made 1 January 2010-31 December 2022 were included. We calculated annual HBGA call percentages and described calls (species, month, origin, exposure route). We characterized public awareness by quantifying Nexis Uni® (LexisNexis Academic; New York, NY, USA)-indexed news publications (2010-2022) pertaining to "harmful algal bloom(s)". Call percentage increased annually, from 0.005% (2010) to 0.070% (2022). Of 999 HBGA calls, 99.4% (n = 993) were dog exposures. Over 65% (n = 655) of calls were made July-September, largely from the New England (n = 154 (15.4%)) and Pacific (n = 129 (12.9.%)) geographic divisions. Oral and dermal exposures predominated (n = 956 (95.7%)). Harmful algal bloom news publications increased overall, peaking in 2019 (n = 1834). Higher call volumes in summer and in the New England and Pacific geographic divisions drove HBGA call increases; public awareness might have contributed. Dogs and humans have similar exposure routes. ASPCA APCC HBGA call data could serve as a public health information source.

Harmful algal bloom aerosols and human health

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing across many locations globally. Toxins from HABs can be incorporated into aerosols and transported inland, where subsequent exposure and inhalation can induce adverse health effects. However, the relationship between HAB aerosols and health outcomes remains unclear despite the potential for population-level exposures. In this review, we synthesized the current state of knowledge and identified evidence gaps in the relationship between HAB aerosols and human health. Aerosols from Karenia brevis, Ostreopsis sp., and cyanobacteria were linked with respiratory outcomes. However, most works did not directly measure aerosol or toxin concentrations and instead relied on proxy metrics of exposure, such as cell concentrations in nearby waterbodies. Furthermore, the number of studies with epidemiological designs was limited. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the health effects of other HAB species; threshold dose and the dose-response relationship; effects of concurrent exposures to mixtures of toxins and other aerosol sources, such as microplastics and metals; the impact of long-term exposures; and disparities in exposures and associated health effects across potentially vulnerable subpopulations. Additional studies employing multifaceted exposure assessment methods and leveraging large health databases could address such gaps and improve our understanding of the public health burden of HABs.

Identifying lakes at risk of toxic cyanobacterial blooms using satellite imagery and field surveys across the United States

Harmful algal blooms caused by cyanobacteria are a threat to global water resources and human health. Satellite remote sensing has vastly expanded spatial and temporal data on lake cyanobacteria, yet there is still acute need for tools that identify which waterbodies are at-risk for toxic cyanobacterial blooms. Algal toxins cannot be directly detected through imagery but monitoring toxins associated with cyanobacterial blooms is critical for assessing risk to the environment, animals, and people. The objective of this study is to address this need by developing an approach relating satellite imagery on cyanobacteria with field surveys to model the risk of toxic blooms among lakes. The Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and United States (US) National Lakes Assessments are leveraged to model the probability among lakes of exceeding lower and higher demonstration thresholds for microcystin toxin, cyanobacteria, and chlorophyll a. By leveraging the large spatial variation among lakes using two national-scale data sources, rather than focusing on temporal variability, this approach avoids many of the previous challenges in relating satellite imagery to cyanotoxins. For every satellite-derived lake-level Cyanobacteria Index (CI_cyano) increase of 0.01 CI_cyano/km2, the odds of exceeding six bloom thresholds increased by 23-54 %. When the models were applied to the 2192 satellite monitored lakes in the US, the number of lakes identified with ≥75 % probability of exceeding the thresholds included as many as 335 lakes for the lower thresholds and 70 lakes for the higher thresholds, respectively. For microcystin, the models identified 162 and 70 lakes with ≥75 % probability of exceeding the lower (0.2 μg/L) and higher (1.0 μg/L) thresholds, respectively. This approach represents a critical advancement in using satellite imagery and field data to identify lakes at risk for developing toxic cyanobacteria blooms. Such models can help translate satellite data to aid water quality monitoring and management.