Modelling the response of tree growth to temperature and CO2 elevation as related to the fertility and current temperature sum of a site

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations

A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources.

The agony of choice: different empirical mortality models lead to sharply different future forest dynamics

Dynamic models are pivotal for projecting forest dynamics in a changing climate, from the local to the global scale. They encapsulate the processes of tree population dynamics with varying resolution. Yet, almost invariably, tree mortality is modeled based on simple, theoretical assumptions that lack a physiological and/or empirical basis. Although this has been widely criticized and a growing number of empirically derived alternatives are available, they have not been tested systematically in models of forest dynamics. We implemented an inventory-based and a tree-ring-based mortality routine in the forest gap model ForClim v3.0. We combined these routines with a stochastic and a deterministic approach for the determination of tree status (alive vs. dead). We tested the four new model versions for two Norway spruce forests in the Swiss Alps, one of which was managed (inventory time series spanning 72 years) and the other was unmanaged (41 years). Furthermore, we ran long-term simulations (-400 years) into the future under three climate scenarios to test model behavior under changing environmental conditions. The tests against inventory data showed an excellent match of simulated basal area and stem numbers at the managed site and a fair agreement at the unmanaged site for three of the four empirical mortality models, thus rendering the choice of one particular model difficult. However, long-term simulations under current climate revealed very different behavior of the mortality models in terms of simulated changes of basal area and stem numbers, both in timing and magnitude, thus indicating high sensitivity of simulated forest dynamics to assumptions on tree mortality. Our results underpin the potential of using empirical mortality routines in forest gap models. However, further tests are needed that span other climatic conditions and mixed forests. Short-term simulations to benchmark model behavior against empirical data are insufficient; long-term tests are needed that include both nonequilibrium and equilibrium conditions. Thus, there is the potential to greatly improve the robustness of future projections of forest dynamics via more reliable tree mortality submodels.

Impacts of changing climate on the productivity of Norway spruce dominant stands with a mixture of Scots pine and birch in relation to water availability in southern and northern Finland

A process-based ecosystem model was used to assess the impacts of changing climate on net photosynthesis and total stem wood growth in relation to water availability in two unmanaged Norway spruce (Picea abies) dominant stands with a mixture of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and birch (Betula sp.). The mixed stands were grown over a 100-year rotation (2000-99) in southern and northern Finland with initial species shares of 50, 25 and 25% for Norway spruce, Scots pine and birch, respectively. In addition, pure Norway spruce, Scots pine and birch stands were used as a comparison to identify whether species' response is different in mixed and pure stands. Soil type and moisture conditions (moderate drought) were expected to be the same at the beginning of the simulations irrespective of site location. Regardless of tree species, both annual net canopy photosynthesis (P(nc)) and total stem wood growth (V(s)) were, on average, lower on the southern site under the changing climate compared with the current climate (difference increasing toward the end of the rotation); the opposite was the case for the northern site. Regarding the stand water budget, evapotranspiration (E(T)) was higher under the changing climate regardless of site location. Transpiration and evaporation from the canopy affected water depletion the most. Norway spruce and birch accounted for most of the water depletion in mixed stands on both sites regardless of climatic condition. The annual soil water deficit (W(d)) was higher on the southern site under the changing climate. On the northern site, the situation was the opposite. According to our results, the growth of pure Norway spruce stands in southern Finland could be even lower than the growth of Norway spruce in mixed stands under the changing climate. The opposite was found for pure Scots pine and birch stands due to lower water depletion. This indicates that in the future the management should be properly adapted to climate change in order to sustain the productivity of mixed stands dominated by Norway spruce.

Inter- and intra-specific responses to elevated ozone and chamber climate in northern birches

We studied the responses of micropropagated, northern provenances of downy, mountain and silver birches to elevated ozone (O(3)) and changing climate using open-top chambers (OTCs). Contrary to our hypothesis, northern birches were sensitive to O(3), i.e. O(3) levels of 31-36 ppb reduced the leaf and root biomasses by -10%, whereas wood biomass was affected to a lesser extent. The warmer and drier OTC climate enhanced growth in general, though there were differences among the species and clones, e.g. in bud burst and biomass production. Inter- and intra-specific responses to O(3) and changing climate relate to traits such as allocation patterns between the above- and belowground parts (i.e. root/shoot ratio), which further relate to nutrient and water economy. Our experiments may have mimicked future conditions quite well, but only long-term field studies can yield the information needed to forecast responses at both tree and ecosystem levels.