Wood decomposition model for boreal forests

Enhancing multifunctionality in European boreal forests: The potential role of Triad landscape functional zoning

Land-use policies aim at enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources. The Triad approach has been suggested to balance the social, ecological, and economic demands of forested landscapes. The core idea is to enhance multifunctionality at the landscape level by allocating landscape zones with specific management priorities, i.e., production (intensive management), multiple use (extensive management), and conservation (forest reserves). We tested the efficiency of the Triad approach and identified the respective proportion of above-mentioned zones needed to enhance multifunctionality in Finnish forest landscapes. Through a simulation and optimization framework, we explored a range of scenarios of the three zones and evaluated how changing their relative proportion (each ranging from 0 to 100%) impacted landscape multifunctionality, measured by various biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. The results show that maximizing multifunctionality required around 20% forest area managed intensively, 50% extensively, and 30% allocated to forest reserves. In our case studies, such landscape zoning represented a good compromise between the studied multifunctionality components and maintained 61% of the maximum achievable net present value (i.e., total timber economic value). Allocating specific proportion of the landscape to a management zone had distinctive effects on the optimized economic or multifunctionality values. Net present value was only moderately impacted by shifting from intensive to extensive management, while multifunctionality benefited from less intensive and more diverse management regimes. This is the first study to apply Triad in a European boreal forest landscape, highlighting the usefulness of this approach. Our results show the potential of the Triad approach in promoting forest multifunctionality, as well as a strong trade-off between net present value and multifunctionality. We conclude that simply applying the Triad approach does not implicitly contribute to an overall increase in forest multifunctionality, as careful forest management planning still requires clear landscape objectives.

Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale

Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016-2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite-they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.

Elevation dependent response of soil organic carbon stocks to forest windthrow

Storms represent a major disturbance factor in forest ecosystems, but the effects of windthrows on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are poorly quantified. Here, we assessed the SOC stocks of windthrown forests at 19 sites across Switzerland spanning an elevation gradient from 420 to 1550 m, encompassing a strong climatic gradient. Results show that the effect size of disturbance on SOC stocks increases with the size of the initial SOC stocks. The largest windthrow-induced SOC losses of up to 29 t C ha^-1 occurred in high-elevation forests with a harsh climate developing thick organic layers. In contrast, SOC stocks of low-elevation forests with thin organic layers were hardly affected. A mineralization study further revealed high elevation forests to store higher amounts of easily mineralizable C in thick organic layers that got lost following windthrow. These findings are supported by a meta-analysis of available windthrow studies, showing an increase of storm-induced SOC losses with the size of the initial SOC stocks. Modelling simulations further indicate longer-lasting SOC losses and a slower recovery of SOC stocks after windthrow at high compared to low elevations, due to a slower regeneration of mountain forests and associated lower C inputs into soils in a harsh climate. Upscaling the experimental findings/observed patterns by linking them to a data base of Swiss forest soils shows a total SOC loss of ∼0.4 Mt. C for the whole forested area of Switzerland after two major storm events, counteracting the forest net carbon sink of decades. Our study provides strong evidence that the vulnerability of SOC stocks to windthrow is particularly high in forests featuring thick and slowly forming organic layers, such as mountain soils. Thus, the risk of losing SOC to more frequent windthrows in mountain forests strongly limits their potential to mitigate climate change.

Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool: Model validation and application

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a significant component of the forest biomass pool; hence a model is warranted to predict CWD decomposition and its role in forest carbon (C) and nutrient cycling under varying management and climatic conditions. A process-based model, CWDDAT (Coarse Woody Debris Decomposition Assessment Tool) was calibrated and validated using data from the FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) Wood Decomposition Experiment utilizing pine (Pinus taeda), aspen (Populous tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera) on nine Experimental Forests (EF) covering a range of climate, hydrology, and soil conditions across the continental USA. The model predictions were evaluated against measured FACE log mass loss over 6 years. Four widely applied metrics of model performance demonstrated that the CWDDAT model can accurately predict CWD decomposition. The R2 (squared Pearson's correlation coefficient) between the simulation and measurement was 0.80 for the model calibration and 0.82 for the model validation (P<0.01). The predicted mean mass loss from all logs was 5.4% lower than the measured mass loss and 1.4% lower than the calculated loss. The model was also used to assess the decomposition of mixed pine-hardwood CWD produced by Hurricane Hugo in 1989 on the Santee Experimental Forest in South Carolina, USA. The simulation reflected rapid CWD decomposition of the forest in this subtropical setting. The predicted dissolved organic carbon (DOC) derived from the CWD decomposition and incorporated into the mineral soil averaged 1.01 g C m-2 y-1 over the 30 years. The main agents for CWD mass loss were fungi (72.0%) and termites (24.5%), the remainder was attributed to a mix of other wood decomposers. These findings demonstrate the applicability of CWDDAT for large-scale assessments of CWD dynamics, and fine-scale considerations regarding the fate of CWD carbon.

Silvicultural Interventions Drive the Changes in Soil Organic Carbon in Romanian Forests According to Two Model Simulations

We investigated the effects of forest management on the carbon (C) dynamics in Romanian forest soils, using two model simulations: CBM-CFS3 and Yasso15. Default parametrization of the models and harmonized litterfall simulated by CBM provided satisfactory results when compared to observed data from National Forest Inventory (NFI). We explored a stratification approach to investigate the improvement of soil C prediction. For stratification on forest types only, the NRMSE (i.e., normalized RMSE of simulated vs. NFI) was approximately 26%, for both models; the NRMSE values reduced to 13% when stratification was done based on climate only. Assuming the continuation of the current forest management practices for a period of 50 years, both models simulated a very small C sink during simulation period (0.05 MgC ha−1 yr−1). Yet, a change towards extensive forest management practices would yield a constant, minor accumulation of soil C, while more intensive practices would yield a constant, minor loss of soil C. For the maximum wood supply scenario (entire volume increment is removed by silvicultural interventions during the simulated period) Yasso15 resulted in larger emissions (−0.3 MgC ha−1 yr−1) than CBM (−0.1 MgC ha−1 yr−1). Under ‘no interventions’ scenario, both models simulated a stable accumulation of C which was, nevertheless, larger in Yasso15 (0.35 MgC ha−1 yr−1) compared to CBM-CSF (0.18 MgC ha−1 yr−1). The simulation of C stock change showed a strong “start-up” effect during the first decade of the simulation, for both models, explained by the difference in litterfall applied to each scenario compared to the spinoff scenario. Stratification at regional scale based on climate and forest types, represented a reasonable spatial stratification, that improved the prediction of soil C stock and stock change.

Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential of improved forest management and accelerated forest conversion in Norway

As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (Picea abies (L) H. Karst) on lands in various states of natural transition to a forest dominated by deciduous broadleaved tree species. Given the aspiration to bring emissions on balance with removals in the latter half of the 21st century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to "well below" 2°C, the effectiveness of such a policy is unclear given relatively low spruce growth rates in the region. Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counteract the benefits of an enhanced forest CO₂ sink in high-latitude regions. Here, we carry out a rigorous empirically based assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale spruce planting in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21st century and beyond. We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting tCDR, yet given low forest growth rates in the region, notable tCDR benefits from such projects would not be realized until the second half of the 21st century, with maximum benefits occurring even later around 2150. We estimate Norway's total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (±240) and 852 (±295) Mt CO₂ -eq. at mean net present values of US$ 12 (±3) and US$ 13 (±2) per ton CDR, respectively. For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway's total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO₂ -eq. emissions.

Modeling of Dead Wood Potential Based on Tree Stand Data

Here we present a framework for identifying areas with high dead wood potential (DWP) for conservation planning needs. The amount and quality of dead wood and dying trees are some of the most important factors for biodiversity in forests. As they are easy to recognize on site, it is widely used as a surrogate marker for ecological quality of forests. However, wall-to-wall information on dead wood is rarely available on a large scale as field data collection is expensive and local dead wood conditions change rapidly. Our method is based on the forest growth models in the Motti forest simulator, taking into account 168 combinations of tree species, site types, and vegetation zones as well as recommendations on forest management. Simulated estimates of stand-level dead wood volume and mean diameter at breast height were converted into DWP functions. The accuracy of the method was validated on two sites in southern and northeastern Finland, both consisting of managed and conserved boreal forests. Altogether, 203 field plots were measured for living and dead trees. Data on living trees were inserted into corresponding DWP functions and the resulting DWPs were compared to the measured dead wood volumes. Our results show that DWP modeling is an operable tool, yet the accuracy differs between areas. The DWP performs best in near-pristine southern forests known for their exceptionally good quality areas. In northeastern areas with a history of softer management, the differences between near-pristine and managed forests is not as clear. While accurate wall-to-wall dead wood inventory is not available, we recommend using DWP method together with other spatial datasets when assessing biodiversity values of forests.

Effect of increased wood harvesting and utilization on required greenhouse gas displacement factors of wood-based products and fuels

A displacement factor (DF) may be used to describe the efficiency of using wood-based products or fuels instead of fossil-based ones to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the DFs of individual products and their production volumes could not be used alone to evaluate the climate impacts of forest utilization. For this reason, in this study we have developed a methodology to assess a required displacement factor (RDF) for all wood products and bioenergy manufactured and harvested in a certain country in order to achieve zero CO₂ equivalent emissions from increased forest utilization over time in comparison with a selected baseline harvesting scenario. Input data for calculations were produced with the simulation model, Monsu, capable of predicting the carbon stocks of forests and wood-based products. We tested the calculations in Finnish conditions in a 100-year time horizon and estimated the current average DF of manufactured wood-based products and fuels in Finland for the interpretation of RDF results. The results showed that if domestic wood harvesting will be increased by 17-33% compared to the basic scenario, the RDF will be 2.0 to 2.4 tC tC^-1 for increased wood use in 2017-2116. However, the estimated average DF of manufactured wood-based products and fuels currently in Finland was less than 1.1 tC tC^-1. The results indicate strongly that the increased harvesting intensity from the current situation would represent a challenge for the Finnish forest-based bioeconomy from the viewpoint of climate change mitigation. For this reason, there is an immediate need to improve reliability and applicability of the RDF approach by repeating corresponding calculations in different circumstances and by improving estimations of DFs on country levels.

Different twig litter (Salix caprea) diameter does affect microbial community activity and composition but not decay rate

Small twigs represent a substantial input of organic carbon into forest soils, but potential influencing factors on their decomposition have rarely been investigated. Here, we studied potential effects of twig size on decomposition and associated composition and activity of microbial communities during decomposition. Because the surface area for microbial colonization and the volume of accessible substrate increases with decreasing twig size, we hypothesized that twig size affects both microbial community and decomposition rate. Litterbags with twigs (Salix caprea) of two different diameters were placed within the litter layer and consecutively collected over a seven-year period. We determined the mass loss and microbial measures after each sampling event. The observed microbial parameters suggested a faster microbial colonization of thin twigs, where the proportion of bacteria was higher than in thick twigs. The development of the microbial community in thick twigs was more gradual and the proportion of fungi was higher. Despite this differential and successional development of microbial communities (and against our hypothesis), the mass loss among different twig diameters did not differ after our seven-year experiment, indicating that surface-to-volume ratios, though a primary control on microbial succession, may have limited predictive power for twig decomposition rates.

Carbon flux from decomposing wood and its dependency on temperature, wood N2 fixation rate, moisture and fungal composition in a Norway spruce forest

Globally 40-70 Pg of carbon (C) are stored in coarse woody debris on the forest floor. Climate change may reduce the function of this stock as a C sink in the future due to increasing temperature. However, current knowledge on the drivers of wood decomposition is inadequate for detailed predictions. To define the factors that control wood respiration rate of Norway spruce and to produce a model that adequately describes the decomposition process of this species as a function of time, we used an unprecedentedly diverse analytical approach, which included measurements of respiration, fungal community sequencing, N₂ fixation rate, nifH copy number, ¹⁴ C-dating as well as N%, δ¹³ C and C% values of wood. Our results suggest that climate change will accelerate C flux from deadwood in boreal conditions, due to the observed strong temperature dependency of deadwood respiration. At the research site, the annual C flux from deadwood would increase by 27% from the current 117 g C/kg wood with the projected climate warming (RCP4.5). The second most important control on respiration rate was the stage of wood decomposition; at early stages of decomposition low nitrogen content and low wood moisture limited fungal activity while reduced wood resource quality decreased the respiration rate at the final stages of decomposition. Wood decomposition process was best described by a Sigmoidal model, where after 116 years of wood decomposition mass loss of 95% was reached. Our results on deadwood decomposition are important for C budget calculations in ecosystem and climate change models. We observed for the first time that the temperature dependency of N₂ fixation, which has a major role at providing N for wood-inhabiting fungi, was not constant but varied between wood density classes due to source supply and wood quality. This has significant consequences on projecting N₂ fixation rates for deadwood in changing climate.

Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2

A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.

Comparing soil inventory with modelling: Carbon balance in central European forest soils varies among forest types

Forest soils represent a large carbon pool and already small changes in this pool may have an important effect on the global carbon cycle. To predict the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, well-validated models are needed. We applied the litter and soil carbon model Yasso15 to 1838 plots of the German national forest soil inventory (NFSI) for the period between 1985 and 2014 to enables a direct comparison to the NFSI measurements. In addition, to provide data for the German Greenhouse Gas Inventory, we simulated the development of SOC with Yasso15 applying a climate projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. The initial model-calculated SOC stocks were adjusted to the measured ones in the NFSI. On average, there were no significant differences between the simulated SOC changes (0.25 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) and the NFSI data (0.39 ± 0.11 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). Comparing regional soil-unit-specific aggregates of the SOC changes, the correlation between both methods was significant (r² = 0.49) although the NFSI values had a wider range and more negative values. In the majority of forest types, representing 75% of plots, both methods produced similar estimates of the SOC balance. Opposite trends were found in mountainous coniferous forests on acidic soils. These soils had lost carbon according to the NFSI (-0.89 ± 0.30 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) whereas they had gained it according to Yasso15 (0.21 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). In oligotrophic pine forests, the NFSI indicated high SOC gains (1.36 ± 0.17 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) and Yasso15 much smaller (0.29 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). According to our results, German forest soils are a large carbon sink. The application of the Yasso15 model supports the results of the NFSI. The sink strength differs between forest types possibly because of differences in organic matter stabilisation.

Integrate carbon dynamic models in analyzing carbon sequestration impact of forest biomass harvest

Biomass is an attractive natural energy resource for mitigating climate change. However, the loss of carbon sequestration as an ecosystem service due to biomass harvest has not been considered in previous studies. To assess the impact of biomass harvest on carbon sequestration, carbon dynamics in the forests and the atmosphere were integrated. The impact of forest biomass harvests on carbon sequestration was assessed based on the difference between carbon sequestration after harvest and carbon sequestration without harvest. A Chapman-Richards function and the forest vegetation simulator (FVS) were used to simulate the growth of a forest stand. The carbon dynamics in the atmosphere were simulated by the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle model. Characterization factors of the impact were calculated in three time horizons: 20-, 100- and 500-year. According to the simulations, postponement of harvest and low harvest intensity could prolong the compensation period. The annual impact on carbon sequestration was mostly negative over a short time and became positive in the end of compensation period. The highest characteristic factors of the impact on carbon sequestration were found in rotation length of 100years with the time horizon of 500-year in the Chapman-Richards simulation and in the lowest harvest intensity with the time horizon of 500-year in the FVS simulation. Based on the results, increasing growth rate, postponing harvest, reducing harvest intensity and increasing length of time horizon could reduce the impact of forest harvest on carbon sequestration. The method proposed in this study is more proper to assess the impact on carbon sequestration, and it has much wider applications in forest management practice.

Towards complete and harmonized assessment of soil carbon stocks and balance in forests: The ability of the Yasso07 model across a wide gradient of climatic and forest conditions in Europe

Accurate carbon-balance accounting in forest soils is necessary for the development of climate change policy. However, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) occur slowly and these changes may not be captured through repeated soil inventories. Simulation models may be used as alternatives to SOC measurement. The Yasso07 model presents a suitable alternative because most of the data required for the application are readily available in countries with common forest surveys. In this study, we test the suitability of Yasso07 for simulating SOC stocks and stock changes in a variety of European forests affected by different climatic, land use and forest management conditions and we address country-specific cases with differing resources and data availability. The simulated SOC stocks differed only slightly from measured data, providing realistic, reasonable mean SOC estimations per region or forest type. The change in the soil carbon pool over time, which is the target parameter for SOC reporting, was generally found to be plausible although not in the case of Mediterranean forest soils. As expected under stable forest management conditions, both land cover and climate play major roles in determining the SOC stock in forest soils. Greater mean SOC stocks were observed in northern latitudes (or at higher altitude) than in southern latitudes (or plains) and conifer forests were found to store a notably higher amount of SOC than broadleaf forests. Furthermore, as regards change in SOC, an inter-annual sink effect was identified for most of the European forest types studied. Our findings corroborate the suitability of Yasso07 to assess the impact of forest management and land use change on the SOC balance of forests soils, as well as to accurately simulate SOC in dead organic matter (DOM) and mineral soil pools separately. The obstacles encountered when applying the Yasso07 model reflect a lack of available input data. Future research should focus on improving our knowledge of C inputs from compartments such as shrubs, herbs, coarse woody debris and fine roots. This should include turnover rates and quality of the litter in all forest compartments from a wider variety of tree species and sites. Despite the limitations identified, the SOC balance estimations provided by the Yasso07 model are sufficiently complete, accurate and transparent to make it suitable for reporting purposes such as those required under the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and KP (Kyoto Protocol) for a wide range of forest conditions in Europe.

Branch Wood Decomposition of Tree Species in a Deciduous Temperate Forest in Korea

Woody debris, which is supplied by branch litter, is an important component of forest ecosystems as it contains large quantities of organic matter and nutrients. We evaluated changes in branch wood dry weight and nutrient content of six common species (Fraxinus rhynchophylla, Pinus densiflora, Prunus sargentii, Quercus mongolica, Acer pseudosieboldianum, and Symplocos chinensis for. pilosa) in a deciduous temperate forest in Korea for 40 months. Branch wood disk samples 1.4–1.6 cm thick were cut, and mass loss was measured over time using the litterbag method. No significant differences in mass loss were recorded among the six tree species. Further, mass loss was negatively correlated with initial lignin concentration and positively correlated with both initial cellulose concentration and wood density for each species. Species with high wood cellulose content had high wood density while the lignin content in wood was relatively low. Accordingly, cellulose contributed to wood density, creating a relatively lower lignin content, and the decreased lignin concentration increased the wood decomposition rate.

Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO₂ (GWP_bio). In this study we calculated the GWP_bio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWP_bio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWP_bio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO₂ emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWP_bio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWP_bio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWP_bio.

Ecosystem services of boreal forests - Carbon budget mapping at high resolution

The carbon (C) cycle of forests produces ecosystem services (ES) such as climate regulation and timber production. Mapping these ES using simple land cover -based proxies might add remarkable inaccuracy to the estimates. A framework to map the current status of the C budget of boreal forested landscapes was developed. The C stocks of biomass and soil and the annual change in these stocks were quantified in a 20 × 20 m resolution at the regional level on mineral soils in southern Finland. The fine-scale variation of the estimates was analyzed geo-statistically. The reliability of the estimates was evaluated by comparing them to measurements from the national multi-source forest inventory. The C stocks of forests increased slightly from the south coast to inland whereas the changes in these stocks were more uniform. The spatial patches of C stocks were larger than those of C stock changes. The patch size of the C stocks reflected the spatial variation in the environmental conditions, and that of the C stock changes the typical area of forest management compartments. The simulated estimates agreed well with the measurements indicating a good mapping framework performance. The mapping framework is the basis for evaluating the effects of forest management alternatives on C budget at high resolution across large spatial scales. It will be coupled with the assessment of other ES and biodiversity to study their relationships. The framework integrated a wide suite of simulation models and extensive inventory data. It provided reliable estimates of the human influence on C cycle in forested landscapes.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.