Emergent copepod communities in an adaptive trait-structured model

Thermal traits govern the response of microbial community dynamics and ecosystem functioning to warming

Understanding the ecological processes that underpin the dynamics of community turnover in response to environmental change is critical to predicting how warming will influence ecosystem functioning. Here, we quantify the effect of changing temperature on community composition and ecosystem functioning via the action of ecological selection on population-level thermal traits. To achieve this, we use microbes isolated from a network of geothermal streams in Iceland where in situ temperatures span 8–38°C within a single catchment. We first quantified variability in thermal tolerance between taxa, and then assembled synthetic communities along a broad thermal gradient to explore how temperature-driven selection on thermal tolerance traits shaped the emergent community structures and functions. We found marked changes in community structure and composition with temperature, such that communities exposed to extreme temperatures (10, 35°C) had highly asymmetric biomass distributions and low taxonomic richness. Thermal optima were a good predictor of the presence and relative abundance of taxa in the high-temperature treatments. We also found that the evenness of the abundance distribution was related to ecosystem production, such that communities with more equitable abundance distribution were also the most productive. Our results highlight the utility of using a multi-level approach that links population-level traits with community structure and ecosystem functioning to better understand how ecological communities will respond to global warming.

Understanding the structure and functioning of polar pelagic ecosystems to predict the impacts of change

The determinants of the structure, functioning and resilience of pelagic ecosystems across most of the polar regions are not well known. Improved understanding is essential for assessing the value of biodiversity and predicting the effects of change (including in biodiversity) on these ecosystems and the services they maintain. Here we focus on the trophic interactions that underpin ecosystem structure, developing comparative analyses of how polar pelagic food webs vary in relation to the environment. We highlight that there is not a singular, generic Arctic or Antarctic pelagic food web, and, although there are characteristic pathways of energy flow dominated by a small number of species, alternative routes are important for maintaining energy transfer and resilience. These more complex routes cannot, however, provide the same rate of energy flow to highest trophic-level species. Food-web structure may be similar in different regions, but the individual species that dominate mid-trophic levels vary across polar regions. The characteristics (traits) of these species are also different and these differences influence a range of food-web processes. Low functional redundancy at key trophic levels makes these ecosystems particularly sensitive to change. To develop models for projecting responses of polar ecosystems to future environmental change, we propose a conceptual framework that links the life histories of pelagic species and the structure of polar food webs.

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that "Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects", we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean.

A day in the life of fish larvae: modeling foraging and growth using quirks

This article introduces “Quirks,” a generic, individual-based model synthesizing over 40 years of empirical and theoretical insights into the foraging behavior and growth physiology of marine fish larvae. In Quirks, different types of larvae are defined by a short list of their biological traits, and all foraging and growth processes (including the effects of key environmental factors) are modeled following one unified set of mechanistic rules. This approach facilitates ecologically meaningful comparisons between different species and environments. We applied Quirks to model young exogenously feeding larvae of four species: 5.5-mm European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), 7-mm Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), 13-mm Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), and 7-mm European sprat (Sprattus sprattus). Modeled growth estimates explained the majority of variability among 53 published empirical growth estimates, and displayed very little bias: 0.65%±1.2% d⁻¹ (mean ± standard error). Prey organisms of ∼67% the maximum ingestible prey length were optimal for all larval types, in terms of the expected ingestion per encounter. Nevertheless, the foraging rate integrated over all favorable prey sizes was highest when smaller organisms made up >95% of the prey biomass under the assumption of constant normalized size spectrum slopes. The overall effect of turbulence was consistently negative, because its detrimental influence on prey pursuit success exceeded its beneficial influence on prey encounter rate. Model sensitivity to endogenous traits and exogenous environmental factors was measured and is discussed in depth. Quirks is free software and open source code is provided.

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.