Bayesian belief network models to analyse and predict ecological water quality in rivers

Determining Tipping Points and Responses of Macroinvertebrate Traits to Abiotic Factors in Support of River Management

Although the trait concept is increasingly used in research, quantitative relations that can support in determining ecological tipping points and serve as a basis for environmental standards are lacking. This study determines changes in trait abundance along a gradient of flow velocity, turbidity and elevation, and develops trait-response curves, which facilitate the identification of ecological tipping points. Aquatic macroinvertebrates and abiotic conditions were determined at 88 different locations in the streams of the Guayas basin. After trait information collection, a set of trait diversity metrics were calculated. Negative binomial regression and linear regression were applied to relate the abundance of each trait and trait diversity metrics, respectively, to flow velocity, turbidity and elevation. Tipping points for each environmental variable in relation to traits were identified using the segmented regression method. The abundance of most traits increased with increasing velocity, while they decreased with increasing turbidity. The negative binomial regression models revealed that from a flow velocity higher than 0.5 m/s, a substantial increase in abundance occurs for several traits, and this is even more substantially noticed at values higher than 1 m/s. Furthermore, significant tipping points were also identified for elevation, wherein an abrupt decline in trait richness was observed below 22 m a.s.l., implying the need to focus water management in these altitudinal regions. Turbidity is potentially caused by erosion; thus, measures that can reduce or limit erosion within the basin should be implemented. Our findings suggest that measures mitigating the issues related to turbidity and flow velocity may lead to better aquatic ecosystem functioning. This quantitative information related to flow velocity might serve as a good basis to determine ecological flow requirements and illustrates the major impacts that hydropower dams can have in fast-running river systems. These quantitative relations between invertebrate traits and environmental conditions, as well as related tipping points, provide a basis to determine critical targets for aquatic ecosystem management, achieve improved ecosystem functioning and warrant trait diversity.

A modeling approach to the efficient evaluation and analysis of water quality risks in cold zone lakes: a case study of Chagan Lake in Northeast China

Due to the influence of complex regional climate, water quality perturbation factors of lakes in cold regions are complicated, and the uncertainty of each factor needs further study. This study coupled two algorithms (clustering and EM) to establish a water quality uncertainty model of Chagan Lake, a typical cold region lake in China. A BN model containing nine influencing factors (including water temperature (WT), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), etc.) was established and optimized, and sensitivity analysis was also performed. The results indicate that the water quality status of the lake is class III and 27.47% risk of exceeding the standard. The water quality of the lake is more susceptible to disturbance during the freezing period (WT < 1 °C). TP is the most sensitive factor for water quality disturbance in the lake followed by chemical oxygen demand (COD), TN, and fluoride (F). Parameter control result displays, and the multifactor synergistic control scheme could reduce the water quality risk of the lake by 36.47%. This study demonstrates that our proposed method can be used to predict both sudden water quality events and the overall trend of water quality fluctuation, which is important for rapid water quality evaluation and management decisions.

Using weighted expert judgement and nonlinear data analysis to improve Bayesian belief network models for riverine ecosystem services

Rivers are a key part of the hydrological cycle and a vital conduit of water resources, but are under increasing threat from anthropogenic pressures. Linking pressures with ecosystem services is challenging because the processes interconnecting the physico-chemical, biological and socio-economic elements are usually captured using heterogenous methods. Our objectives were, firstly, to advance an existing proof-of-principle Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for integration of ecosystem services considerations into river management. We causally linked catchment stressors with ecosystem services using weighted evidence from an expert workshop (capturing confidence among expert groups), legislation and published literature. The BBN was calibrated with analyses of national monitoring data (including non-linear relationships and ecologically meaningful breakpoints) and expert judgement. We used a novel expected index of desirability to quantify the model outputs. Secondly, we applied the BBN to three case study catchments in Ireland to demonstrate the implications of changes in stressor levels for ecosystem services in different settings. Four out of the seven significant relationships in data analyses were non-linear, highlighting that non-linearity is common in ecosystems, but rarely considered in environmental modelling. Deficiency of riparian shading was identified as a prevalent and strong influence, which should be addressed to improve a broad range of societal benefits, particularly in the catchments where riparian shading is scarce. Sediment load had a lower influence on river biology in flashy rivers where it has less potential to settle out. Sediment interacted synergistically with organic matter and phosphate where these stressors were active; tackling these stressor pairs simultaneously can yield additional societal benefits compared to the sum of their individual influences, which highlights the value of integrated management. Our BBN model can be parametrised for other Irish catchments whereas elements of our approach, including the expected index of desirability, can be adapted globally.

A Bayesian Modelling Framework for Integration of Ecosystem Services into Freshwater Resources Management

Models of ecological response to multiple stressors and of the consequences for ecosystem services (ES) delivery are scarce. This paper describes a methodology for constructing a BBN combining catchment and water quality model output, data, and expert knowledge that can support the integration of ES into water resources management. It proposes "small group" workshop methods for elucidating expert knowledge and analyses the areas of agreement and disagreement between experts. The model was developed for four selected ES and for assessing the consequences of management options relating to no-change, riparian management, and decreasing or increasing livestock numbers. Compared with no-change, riparian management and a decrease in livestock numbers improved the ES investigated to varying degrees. Sensitivity analysis of the expert information in the BBN showed the greatest disagreements between experts were mainly for low probability situations and thus had little impact on the results. Conversely, in our applications, the best agreement between experts tended to occur for the higher probability, more likely, situations. This has implications for the practical use of this type of model to support catchment management decisions. The complexity of the relationship between management measures, the water quality and ecological responses and resulting changes in ES must not be a barrier to making decisions in the present time. The interactions of multiple stressors further complicate the situation. However, management decisions typically relate to the overall character of solutions and not their detailed design, which can follow once the nature of the solution has been chosen, for example livestock management or riparian measures or both.

Early warning of water quality degradation: A copula-based Bayesian network model for highly efficient water quality risk assessment

In the context of global climate change and increasingly severe environmental pollution, drinking water quality risk assessments to provide crucial early warnings have become essential routine work. At present, traditional water quality assessment methods are commonly used without considering the correlation among different indicators and the substantial uncertainty from multiple sources, which limit their applications. To address this issue, a copula-based Bayesian network (CBN) method was proposed in this study to concretely evaluate the water quality risk with multiple environmental risk indicators in a large drinking water reservoir in Tianjin city, China. Taking rainfall and water temperature (WT) as external environmental risk indicators and pH, ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and permanganate index (COD_Mn) as internal environmental risk indicators, the CBN model was constructed to investigate the interaction between the indicators and water quality state and assess the contingent risk. Our results showed that TN and NH₃-N should be considered key risk indicators. Additionally, we performed forward and backward risk analyses to assess water quality risk during different seasons and determined the distributions of key indicators under different water quality risk grades. From a time perspective, the reservoir's water quality risk is much higher in winter and spring than in other seasons affected by winter snowfall. From a spatial perspective, the water quality risk is much higher at the reservoir's entrance than at other locations affected by water diversion. Furthermore, we found that the probability of water quality risk events may be relatively high when the TN concentration is 3.6 mg/L to 6.4 mg/L at the reservoir's entrance. The results reveal that the CBN method could be an invaluable decision-support tool for reservoir managers and scientists, which could provide an early warning of water quality degradation by only inputting monitoring data.

Dynamic Bayesian Networks to Assess Anthropogenic and Climatic Drivers of Saltwater Intrusion: A Decision Support Tool Toward Improved Management

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) is a global coastal problem caused by aquifer overpumping, land-use change, and climate change impacts. Given the complex pathways that lead to SWI, coastal urban areas with poorly monitored aquifers are in need of probabilistic-based decision support tools that can assist in better understanding and predicting SWI, while exploring effective means for sustainable aquifer management. In this study, we develop a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to account for the complex interactions of climatic and anthropogenic processes leading to SWI, while relating the severity of SWI to associated socioeconomic impacts and possible adaptation strategies. The BBN is further expanded into a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess the temporal progression of SWI and account for the compounding uncertainties over time. The proposed DBN is then tested at a pilot coastal aquifer underlying a highly urbanized water-stressed metropolitan area along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Beirut, Lebanon). The results show that the future impacts of climate change are largely secondary when compared to the persistent water deficits. While both supply and demand management could halt the progression of salinity, the potential for reducing or reversing SWI is not evident. The indirect socioeconomic burden associated with aquifer salinity was observed to improve, albeit heterogeneously, with the application of various adaptation strategies; however, this was at a cost associated with the implementation and operation of these strategies. The proposed DBN acts as an effective decision support tool that can promote sustainable aquifer management in coastal regions through its robust representation of the main drivers of SWI and linking them to expected socioeconomic burdens and management options. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:202-220. © 2020 SETAC.

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Simulate the Pesticide Dynamics in the Data Scarce Guayas River Basin, Ecuador

Agricultural intensification has stimulated the economy in the Guayas River basin in Ecuador, but also affected several ecosystems. The increased use of pesticides poses a serious threat to the freshwater ecosystem, which urgently calls for an improved knowledge about the impact of pesticide practices in this study area. Several studies have shown that models can be appropriate tools to simulate pesticide dynamics in order to obtain this knowledge. This study tested the suitability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the dynamics of two different pesticides in the data scarce Guayas River basin. First, we set up, calibrated and validated the model using the streamflow data. Subsequently, we set up the model for the simulation of the selected pesticides (i.e., pendimethalin and fenpropimorph). While the hydrology was represented soundly by the model considering the data scare conditions, the simulation of the pesticides should be taken with care due to uncertainties behind essential drivers, e.g., application rates. Among the insights obtained from the pesticide simulations are the identification of critical zones for prioritisation, the dominant areas of pesticide sources and the impact of the different land uses. SWAT has been evaluated to be a suitable tool to investigate the impact of pesticide use under data scarcity in the Guayas River basin. The strengths of SWAT are its semi-distributed structure, availability of extensive online documentation, internal pesticide databases and user support while the limitations are high data requirements, time-intensive model development and challenging streamflow calibration. The results can also be helpful to design future water quality monitoring strategies. However, for future studies, we highly recommend extended monitoring of pesticide concentrations and sediment loads. Moreover, to substantially improve the model performance, the availability of better input data is needed such as higher resolution soil maps, more accurate pesticide application rate and actual land management programs. Provided that key suggestions for further improvement are considered, the model is valuable for applications in river ecosystem management of the Guayas River basin.

Applications of Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Stressors: A Critical Appraisal

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely implemented as graphical decision support tools which use probability inferences to generate “what if?” and “which is best?” analyses of potential management options for water resource management, under climate change and socio-economic stressors. This paper presents a systematic quantitative literature review of applications of BNs for decision support in water resource management. The review quantifies to what extent different types of data (quantitative and/or qualitative) are used, to what extent optimization-based and/or scenario-based approaches are adopted for decision support, and to what extent different categories of adaptation measures are evaluated. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (68%) to evaluate the performance of management measures, whilst relatively few studies (18%) applied optimization-based approaches to optimize management measures. Institutional and social measures (62%) were mostly applied to the management of water-related concerns, followed by technological and engineered measures (47%), and ecosystem-based measures (37%). There was no significant difference in the use of quantitative and/or qualitative data across different decision support approaches (p = 0.54), or in the evaluation of different categories of management measures (p = 0.25). However, there was significant dependence (p = 0.076) between the types of management measure(s) evaluated, and the decision support approaches used for that evaluation. The potential and limitations of BN applications as decision support systems are discussed along with solutions and recommendations, thereby further facilitating the application of this promising decision support tool for future research priorities and challenges surrounding uncertain and complex water resource systems driven by multiple interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic changes.

Role of adsorption behavior on metal build-up in urban road dust

Metal pollution of stormwater runoff can cause potential toxic impacts on the receiving water environment and human health. Effective pollution mitigation requires accurate stormwater quality modeling. Even though a significant knowledge base exists on the factors influencing metal build-up on urban roads, very limited studies have investigated how metal-particulate interaction influences metal build-up. This study quantitatively assessed the influence of particulate characteristics, together with vehicular traffic and land use, on the build-up of Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd on urban roads. The study outcomes revealed that the variability in metal build-up is highly influenced by the variability associated with metal adsorption to particulates. The percentage contribution from particulate properties influencing metal adsorption in the case of <150 μm size road dust particles was found to be higher (Zn 44%, Cu 52%, Cr 16%, Ni 27% and Cd 45%) when compared to traffic and land use characteristics (Zn 21%, Cu 13%, Cr and Ni <10% and Cd 34%). Similar adsorption behavior was noted for metals associated with >150 μm size road dust particles. Among different particulate properties influencing metal adsorption, effective cation exchange capacity showed a strong positive relationship with the build-up of Cd compared to other metals, highlighting the potential role of Cd in stormwater quality as a readily available metal. The build-up of metals such as Cr and Ni are highly influenced by metal oxides of Al, Fe and Mn and clay forming minerals, indicating that Cr and Ni are relatively stable in nature.

How to Optimize Ecosystem Services Based on a Bayesian Model: A Case Study of Jinghe River Basin

Based on a Bayesian Network Model (BBN), we established an ecological service network system of the Jinghe River Basin in 2015. Our method consisted of using the distributed eco-hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model) to simulate water yield, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model to estimate Net Primary Productivity (NPP), the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model to calculate soil erosion and the Crop Productivity (CP) model to simulate agricultural productivity to quantify the four ecosystem services. Based on the network established, the key variable subset and the visual optimal state subset, which we visualized, were analyzed and used to provide spatial optimization suggestions for the four kinds of ecosystem services studied. Our results indicate that water yield, concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the mountain and river areas, is increasing in the Jinghe River Basin. NPP is continuously increasing and is distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the mountain areas on both sides of the river. Agricultural productivity also shows an upward trend, with areas of high productivity concentrated in the southern downstream mountain areas. On the contrary, the amount of soil erosion is declining, and the high erosion value is also declining, mainly in the upper reaches of the basin (in the Loess Hilly Area). Additionally, we found that a synergistic relationship exists between water yield, NPP and agricultural productivity, which can increase vegetation cover, leading to enhanced agricultural productivity. However, water yield can be reduced as required in order to balance the tradeoff between water yield and soil erosion. Clear regional differences exist in ecosystem services in the river basin. In the future, the two wings of the middle and lower reaches of the river basin will be the main areas of optimization, and it is likely that an optimal ecosystem services pattern can be reached.

Advances in Ecological Water System Modeling: Integration and Leanification as a Basis for Application in Environmental Management

The art of applied modeling is determining an appropriate balance between integration of more processes and variables for the sake of increasing representativeness and reliability of the models, while also avoiding too long development and simulation times. The latter can be achieved via leanification, which can be based on reducing the number of variables and processes by focusing on key processes in the system and its management, but can be as well induced by using simplified methods for the description of relations among variables (such as regression and probabilistic methods) to, for instance, reduce the simulation time. In this way, integration and leanification can be combined and together contribute to models that are more relevant and convenient for use by water managers. In particular, it is crucial to find a good balance between the integration level of ecological processes answering environmental challenges in a relevant manner and costs for data collection and model development (and application).

Threshold Responses of Macroinvertebrate Communities to Stream Velocity in Relation to Hydropower Dam: A Case Study from The Guayas River Basin (Ecuador)

The Guayas River basin is one of the most important water resources in Ecuador, but the expansion of human activities has led to a degraded water quality. The purpose of this study was (1) to explore the importance of physical-chemical variables in structuring the macroinvertebrate communities and (2) to determine if the thresholds in stream velocity related to macroinvertebrate community composition could be identified in the Guayas River basin. Thus, macroinvertebrates and physical–chemical water quality variables were sampled at 120 locations during the dry season of 2013 in the Guayas River basin. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was performed to identify relevant physical–chemical characteristics of the river influencing the distribution of the macroinvertebrate communities. Threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) was used to discriminate between the macroinvertebrate community related to stagnant waters (Daule–Peripa reservoir) and to running waters. CCA indicates that the most important environmental factors influencing the distribution of macroinvertebrate communities were stream velocity, chlorophyll concentration, conductivity, temperature and elevation. Tipping points for the macroinvertebrate community were defined by stream velocity at 0.03 m/s and 0.4 m/s, i.e., stagnant-water (including dam-related reservoirs) taxa start to quickly decrease in abundance and frequency at 0.03 m/s while running-water taxa start to quickly increase in abundance and frequency at 0.03 m/s until a stream velocity of 0.4 m/s. The results provide essential information to define environmental flows to further support water management plans of the Guayas River basin. Information obtained will be useful for management of similar rivers in South America, as well as the rest of the world.

Water quality assessment with hierarchical cluster analysis based on Mahalanobis distance

Water quality assessment is crucial for assessment of marine eutrophication, prediction of harmful algal blooms, and environment protection. Previous studies have developed many numeric modeling methods and data driven approaches for water quality assessment. The cluster analysis, an approach widely used for grouping data, has also been employed. However, there are complex correlations between water quality variables, which play important roles in water quality assessment but have always been overlooked. In this paper, we analyze correlations between water quality variables and propose an alternative method for water quality assessment with hierarchical cluster analysis based on Mahalanobis distance. Further, we cluster water quality data collected form coastal water of Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea of China, and apply clustering results to evaluate its water quality. To evaluate the validity, we also cluster the water quality data with cluster analysis based on Euclidean distance, which are widely adopted by previous studies. The results show that our method is more suitable for water quality assessment with many correlated water quality variables. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt to apply Mahalanobis distance for coastal water quality assessment.