Bayesian semi-individual based model with approximate Bayesian computation for parameters calibration: Modelling Crown-of-Thorns populations on the Great Barrier Reef

Conceptualisation of multiple impacts interacting in the marine environment using marine infrastructure as an example

The human population is increasingly reliant on the marine environment for food, trade, tourism, transport, communication and other vital ecosystem services. These services require extensive marine infrastructure, all of which have direct or indirect ecological impacts on marine environments. The rise in global marine infrastructure has led to light, noise and chemical pollution, as well as facilitation of biological invasions. As a result, marine systems and associated species are under increased pressure from habitat loss and degradation, formation of ecological traps and increased mortality, all of which can lead to reduced resilience and consequently increased invasive species establishment. Whereas the cumulative bearings of collective human impacts on marine populations have previously been demonstrated, the multiple impacts associated with marine infrastructure have not been well explored. Here, building on ecological literature, we explore the impacts that are associated with marine infrastructure, conceptualising the notion of correlative, interactive and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities on the marine environment. By reviewing the range of mitigation approaches that are currently available, we consider the role that eco-engineering, marine spatial planning and agent-based modelling plays in complementing the design and placement of marine structures to incorporate the existing connectivity pathways, ecological principles and complexity of the environment. Because the effect of human-induced, rapid environmental change is predicted to increase in response to the growth of the human population, this study demonstrates that the development and implementation of legislative framework, innovative technologies and nature-informed solutions are vital, preventative measures to mitigate the multiple impacts associated with marine infrastructure.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.

Contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to fluctuating abundance of crown-of-thorns starfishes (Acanthaster spp.)

Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to account for population outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfishes (CoTS, Acanthaster spp.), which place specific importance on either pre- or post-settlement mechanisms. The purpose of this review is to specifically assess the contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes in the population dynamics of CoTS. Given the immense reproductive potential of CoTS (>100 million eggs per female), persistent high densities would appear inevitable unless there were significant constraints on larval development, settlement success, and/or early post-settlement growth and survival. In terms of population constraints, pre- and post-settlement processes are both important and have additive effects to suppress densities of juvenile and adult CoTS within reef ecosystems. It is difficult, however, to assess the relative contributions of pre- versus post-settlement processes to population outbreaks, especially given limited data on settlement rates, as well as early post-settlement growth and mortality. Prioritising this research is important to resolve potential effects of anthropogenic activities (e.g., fishing) and habitat degradation on changing population dynamics of CoTS, and will also improve management effectiveness.