Responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing: Insights from comparative modelling

Insights into planktonic food-web dynamics through the lens of size and season

Knowledge of the trophic structure and variability of planktonic communities is a key factor in understanding food-web dynamics and energy transfer from zooplankton to higher trophic levels. In this study, we investigated how stable isotopes of mesozooplankton species varied seasonally (winter, spring, autumn) in relation to environmental factors and plankton size classes in a temperate coastal ecosystem. Our results showed that spring is characterized by the strongest vertical and size-structured plankton food-web, mainly fueled by the phytoplankton bloom. As a result, spring displayed the largest isotopic niche space and trophic divergence among species. On the contrary, both pelagic and benthic-derived carbon influenced low productive seasons (winter and autumn), resulting in more generalist strategies (trophic redundancy). Stable isotope mixing models were used to explore how different seasonal structures influenced the overall food web up to predatory plankton (i.e., mysids, chaetognaths, and fish larvae). Different feeding strategies were found in spring, with predators having either a clear preference for larger prey items (> 1 mm, for herring and dab larvae) or a more generalist diet (sprat and dragonets larvae). During low productive seasons, predators seemed to be more opportunistic, feeding on a wide range of size classes but focusing on smaller prey. Overall, the food-web architecture of plankton displayed different seasonal patterns linked to components at the base of the food web that shaped the main energy fluxes, either from phytoplankton or recycled material. Additionally, these patterns extended to carnivorous plankton, such as fish larvae, emphasizing the importance of bottom-up processes.

A simple DEB-based ecosystem model

A minimum stoichiometric carbon and nitrogen model of an entire ecosystem based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is presented. The ecosystem contains nutrients, producers, consumers, decomposers and detritus. All three living groups consist of somatic structure and either one (consumers and decomposers) or two (producers) reserve compartments, hence the living matter is described by seven state variables. Four types of detritus are distinguished. As the system is closed for matter, the dynamics of the nutrients carbon dioxide and ammonium follow automatically from the dynamics of the other 11 state variables. All DEB organisms in the model are V1-morphs, which means that surface area of each organism is proportional to volume. The resulting ontogenetic symmetry implies that complicated modelling of size structure is not required. The DEB V1-morph model is explained in detail, and the same holds for the idea of synthesizing units, which plays a key role in DEB modelling. First results of system dynamics are presented.

Building bridges between natural and social science disciplines: a standardized methodology to combine data on ecosystem quality trends

Despite a growing interest in interdisciplinary research, systematic ways of how to integrate data from different disciplines are still scarce. We argue that successful resource management relies on two key data sources: natural science data, which represents ecosystem structure and processes, and social science data, which describes people's perceptions and understanding. Both are vital, mutually complementing information sources that can underpin the development of feasible and effective policies and management interventions. To harvest the added value of combined knowledge, a uniform scaling system is needed. In this paper, we propose a standardized methodology to connect and explore different types of quantitative data from the natural and social sciences reflecting temporal trends in ecosystem quality. We demonstrate this methodology with different types of data such as fisheries stocks and mangrove cover on the one hand and community's perceptions on the other. The example data are collected from three United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Biosphere reserves and one marine park in Southeast Asia. To easily identify patterns of convergence or divergence among the datasets, we propose heat maps using colour codes and icons for language- and education-independent understandability. Finally, we discuss the limitations as well as potential implications for resource management and the accompanying communication strategies.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’.

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

Stratification, nitrogen fixation, and cyanobacterial bloom stage regulate the planktonic food web structure

Changes in the complexity of planktonic food webs may be expected in future aquatic systems due to increases in sea surface temperature and an enhanced stratification of the water column. Under these conditions, the growth of unpalatable, filamentous, N₂ -fixing cyanobacterial blooms, and their effect on planktonic food webs will become increasingly important. The planktonic food web structure in aquatic ecosystems at times of filamentous cyanobacterial blooms is currently unresolved, with discordant lines of evidence suggesting that herbivores dominate the mesozooplankton or that mesozooplankton organisms are mainly carnivorous. Here, we use a set of proxies derived from amino acid nitrogen stable isotopes from two mesozooplankton size fractions to identify changes in the nitrogen source and the planktonic food web structure across different microplankton communities. A transition from herbivory to carnivory in mesozooplankton between more eutrophic, near-coastal sites and more oligotrophic, offshore sites was accompanied by an increasing diversity of microplankton communities with aging filamentous cyanobacterial blooms. Our analyses of 124 biotic and abiotic variables using multivariate statistics confirmed salinity as a major driver for the biomass distribution of non-N₂ -fixing microplankton species such as dinoflagellates. However, we provide strong evidence that stratification, N₂ fixation, and the stage of the cyanobacterial blooms regulated much of the microplankton diversity and the mean trophic position and size of the metabolic nitrogen pool in mesozooplankton. Our empirical, macroscale data set consistently unifies contrasting results of the dominant feeding mode in mesozooplankton during blooms of unpalatable, filamentous, N₂ -fixing cyanobacteria by identifying the at times important role of heterotrophic microbial food webs. Thus, carnivory, rather than herbivory, dominates in mesozooplankton during aging and decaying cyanobacterial blooms with hitherto uncharacterized consequences for the biogeochemical functions of mesozooplankton.

Do microplastics affect marine ecosystem productivity?

Marine and coastal ecosystems are among the largest contributors to the Earth's productivity. Experimental studies have shown negative impacts of microplastics on individual algae or zooplankton organisms. Consequently, primary and secondary productivity may be negatively affected as well. In this study we attempted to estimate the impacts on productivity at ecosystem level based on reported laboratory findings with a modelling approach, using our biogeochemical model for the North Sea (Delft3D-GEM). Although the model predicted that microplastics do not affect the total primary or secondary production of the North Sea as a whole, the spatial patterns of secondary production were altered, showing local changes of ±10%. However, relevant field data on microplastics are scarce, and strong assumptions were required to include the plastic concentrations and their impacts under field conditions into the model. These assumptions reveal the main knowledge gaps that have to be resolved to improve the first estimate above.