Going beyond the mean in examining relationships of adolescent non-cognitive skills with health-related quality of life and biomarkers in later-life

Predicting depression in old age: Combining life course data with machine learning

With ageing populations, understanding life course factors that raise the risk of depression in old age may help anticipate needs and reduce healthcare costs in the long run. We estimate the risk of depression in old age by combining adult life course trajectories and childhood conditions in supervised machine learning algorithms. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we implement and compare the performance of six alternative machine learning algorithms. We analyse the performance of the algorithms using different life-course data configurations. While we obtain similar predictive abilities between algorithms, we achieve the highest predictive performance when employing semi-structured representations of life courses using sequence data. We use the Shapley Additive Explanations method to extract the most decisive predictive patterns. Age, health, childhood conditions, and low education predict most depression risk later in life, but we identify new predictive patterns in indicators of life course instability and low utilization of dental care services.

How do childhood ADHD symptoms affect labour market outcomes?

Inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity are the main symptoms of ADHD, which affects up to one in ten European and North American children. Existing research shows these symptoms are associated with school exclusion and poor academic performance during childhood and adolescence. Using the British Cohort Study (n = 17,196 people born in April 1970), this is the first study of relationships between ADHD symptoms measured during childhood (age 10) and labour market outcomes measured beyond early adulthood (ages 26-46); and the first to explore the role of childhood circumstances (at birth) and academic performance (ages 10 and 26) in explaining those relationships. A one standard deviation increase in childhood symptoms reduced employment by up to two percentage points and pay by up to four percentage points. Differences in academic performance at age 10 accounted for almost half the observed variation in employment outcomes, indicating a possible role for educational interventions in schools.

Personality Development Across Adolescence and Young Adulthood: The Role of Life Transitions and Self-Concept Clarity

Personality develops across the lifespan, but most development occurs in adolescence and young adulthood. Life transitions to new social roles may be important drivers of mean-level personality development. The present study examined mean-level personality development in adolescence and young adulthood, and the role of the transition to tertiary education and working life therein in a sample of Dutch young people that were followed across 14 years ( N = 497, AgeW1 = 13.03 years). We explored whether young people’s self-concept clarity moderated these associations. Our hypotheses and analytical plan were pre-registered. Findings from Latent Growth Models showed support for maturation in personality across adolescence and young adulthood, but not a maturity dip. Having the role of employee was associated with higher conscientiousness, but no associations were found of the transition to tertiary education and the transition to work with mean-level development of any of the personality traits. Self-concept clarity did not moderate the role of transitions in mean-level personality development. Our findings suggest that socialization effects may not explain associations between life transitions and personality development in adolescence and young adulthood.

How Responsive is Mortality to Locally Administered Healthcare Expenditure? Estimates for England for 2014/15

BACKGROUND

Research using local English data from 2003 to 2012 suggests that a 1% increase in healthcare expenditure causes a 0.78% reduction in mortality, and that it costs the NHS £10,000 to generate an additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In 2013, the existing 151 local health authorities (Primary Care Trusts) were abolished and replaced with 212 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). CCGs retained responsibility for secondary care and pharmaceuticals, but responsibility for primary care and specialised commissioning returned to central administrators.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to extend and apply existing methods to more recent data using a new geography and expenditure base, while improving covariate selection and examining the responsiveness of mortality to expenditure across the mortality distribution.

METHODS

Instrumental variable regression is used to quantify the relationship between mortality and local expenditure. Backward selection and regularised regression are used to identify parsimonious specifications. These results are combined with information about survival and morbidity disease burden to calculate the marginal cost per QALY. Unconditional quantile regression (UQR) is used to examine the response of mortality to expenditure across the mortality distribution.

RESULTS

Backward selection and regularised regression both suggest that the marginal cost per QALY in 2014/15 was about £7000 for locally commissioned services. The UQR results suggest that additional expenditure generates larger health benefits in high-mortality areas and that, if anything, the average size of this heterogeneous response is larger than the response at the mean.

CONCLUSIONS

The new healthcare geography and expenditure base can be used to update estimates of the health opportunity costs associated with additional expenditure. The variation in the mortality response across the mortality distribution suggests that the use of the response at the mean will, if anything, underestimate the health opportunity costs associated with a national policy or nationally mandated guidance on the use of new technologies. The health opportunity costs of such policies are likely to be greater (lower) in areas of higher (lower) mortality, increasing health inequalities.

Spousal bereavement and the cognitive health of older adults in the US: New insights on channels, single items, and subjective evidence

This study provides novel insights into older adults' cognitive functioning before and after widowhood onset and possible effect channels. It further examines gender heterogeneity in the adaptation to (anticipated or actual) spousal bereavement, comparing objective evidence with subjective evidence of cognitive abilities. We used longitudinal data of up to 26,584 participants of the Health and Retirement Study, aged over 50 at recruitment, assessed biennially between 1998 and 2016. Two-way fixed effects with dynamic treatment effects were estimated for various cognitive measures, including six aggregated indices and six single item scales. After adjusting for effect channels including depression, social vulnerability, and stress, there remained significant widowhood effects on older adults' cognitive health. Using single item scales, we established the adverse contemporaneous and adaptation effects on bereaved older females' short-term memory, semantic memory, and numeracy. For bereaved older males, working memory and focus-of-attention deteriorated after widowhood onset. Meanwhile, subjective memory rating remained intact, contrary to objective evidence. We conclude that cognitive transitions to and from widowhood can exhibit distinctive patterns across objective and subjective cognitive domains. With the effect channels in mind, cognitive intervention for widowed older adults should be tailored to the temporal distance to spousal loss, gender, and task.

Estimating the late-life effects of social and emotional skills in childhood using midlife mediators

Social and emotional skills are known to affect health and non-health outcomes, but there is limited evidence on whether these skills in childhood affect late life outcomes because of a shortage of long-running datasets containing this information. We develop a three-stage procedure and use it to estimate the effect of childhood social and emotional skills on health and labour market outcomes in late-life. This procedure makes use of mediators in midlife which are shown to be predicted by childhood skills in one dataset and to predict late-life outcomes in another dataset. We use this method to combine estimates from the National Child Development Survey and the British Household Panel Survey. We find that childhood skills predict marital status, education, home ownership, income and health at age 46 years and these midlife variables predict levels of quality-adjusted life years and labour income accumulated by age 63 years. The combined estimates suggest a standard deviation increase in average Bristol Social Adjustment Guide total score at ages 7 and 11 is associated with 4.2% (standard error = 0.6%) additional quality-adjusted life years and more than 9.9% (£14,539, standard error = £2072) additional accumulated pre-tax earnings by age 63 years. Therefore, childhood interventions to increase social and emotional skills would be expected to reduce future healthcare costs and increase wealth. Our three-stage methodology can be used to predict the life-course effects of investments in childhood skills by combining results from datasets across population cohorts.

Stress-related health depreciation: Using allostatic load to predict self-rated health

Approximately one quarter of UK adults are currently diagnosed with two or more chronic conditions, often referred to as multimorbidity. Chronic stress has been implicated in the development of many diseases common to multimorbidity. Policymakers and clinicians have acknowledged the need for more preventative approaches to deal with the rise of multimorbidity and "early ageing". However divergence may occur between an individual's self-rated health and objectively measured health that may preclude preventative action. The use of biomarkers which look 'under the skin' provide crucial information on an individual's underlying health to facilitate lifestyle change or healthcare utilisation. The UK's Understanding Society dataset, was used to examine whether baseline variation in biomarkers measuring stress-related "wear and tear" - Allostatic Load (AL) - predict changes in future self-rated health (SRH) while adjusting for baseline SRH, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, and healthcare inputs. An interaction between baseline AL and baseline SRH was included to test for differential rates of SRH change. We examined SRH using the SF6D instrument, measuring health-related-quality of life (HRQoL), as well as its physical and mental health components separately. We found that HRQoL and physical health decline faster for those with higher baseline AL (indicating greater "wear and tear") however the same pattern was not observed for mental health. These findings provide novel insights for clinicians and policymakers on the usefulness of AL in capturing health trajectories of which individual's may not be aware and its importance in targeting resilience enhancing measures earlier in the lifecourse to delay physical health decline.

The effect of parental smoking on children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills

Economic research emphasises the importance of cognitive and non-cognitive skills in children for long-term labour market, health and social outcomes. In contrast to previous studies that focus on the effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy, we contribute to the literature by examining whether parental current smoking impacts on children's cognitive and non-cognitive development. We exploit data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children and address potential endogeneity and self-selectivity bias using robust estimation methods. Overall, we find evidence that parental smoking results in worse development outcomes in children. Specifically, our fixed-effects estimates indicate that children living with parents who are smokers exhibit lower cognitive outcomes ranging between 0.09 and 0.17 standard deviation, while the impacts on non-cognitive outcomes range between 0.06 and 0.80 standard deviation. We also provide insights on some of the mechanisms of transmission. Our findings suggest that campaigns, programs and policies that reduce tobacco consumption may have positive externalities in terms of improving children's cognitive and non-cognitive development, and long-term labour market outcomes.