The role of tumour biological factors in technical anatomical resectability assessment of colorectal liver metastases following induction systemic treatment: An analysis of the Dutch CAIRO5 trial

Prognostic Effect of CEA Cut-Off in Patients with Resectable Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

BACKGROUND

Although preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a variable used in most prognostic scores assessing the outcome of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing resection, it is unclear what the optimal cut-off is or in which patient subgroups CEA is most relevant. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the prognostic effect of CEA in resected CRLM patients and to explore in which subgroups CEA is most closely associated with overall survival (OS).

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed, selecting studies that evaluated a relationship between preoperative CEA and OS in patients undergoing CRLM radical surgery. A meta-analysis assessed the overall effect size of the relationship on the selected study cohorts, based on CEA cut-off. An evaluation of 21 baseline variables was performed to explore their possible effect on the relationship between CEA and OS.

RESULTS

The study confirms a significant negative prognostic effect of increased CEA on OS (HR 1.46, CI 1.30-1.65), but heterogeneity among studies is significant. The effect is consistent for all CEA cut-offs, although the relationship tends to weaken in more recent studies for cut-offs < 10 ng/mL. Meta-regressions also suggest that the prognostic effect may be more pronounced in the elderly. In addition, the effect of CEA ≥ 20 ng/mL on OS appears significantly reduced in the subgroup with mutated RAS carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with resectable CRLM, the CEA cut-off should be increased to 20 ng/mL, and evaluation in prospective studies of the more pronounced negative prognostic effect of preoperative CEA in the elderly and wild-type RAS CRLM patients is recommended.

Resectability assessment of colorectal liver metastases by an expert panel: Potential impact on hospitals referring patients for local treatment

BACKGROUND

Patients with colorectal liver-only metastases (CRLM) eligible for local treatment (resection/ablation) do not always receive this potentially curative treatment due to the lack of clear resectability criteria and expertise in centres not performing liver surgery. We evaluated the potential value of a liver expert panel in daily practice.

METHODS

All patients with CRLM starting with systemic treatment in centres not performing liver surgery between 2016 and 2020 were identified in the Netherlands Cancer Registry. A panel of liver surgeons retrospectively re-evaluated patients' imaging for resectability before and two-monthly during systemic treatment.

RESULTS

Sixty-three patients were included from 24 hospitals requiring a total of 544 resectability assessments by individual panel surgeons. The panel considered 18 (29 %) patients to have resectable CRLM before starting systemic treatment, which increased to 43 (68 %) after up to three evaluations. Eighteen (29 %) patients considered resectable by the panel at any time received no local treatment of whom 9 (50 %) were not referred to a liver surgeon.

CONCLUSION

In non-liver-surgery centres, over a quarter of patients technically eligible for local treatment of initially unresectable CRLM, sometimes mistakenly categorised as such, did not receive this. This stresses the need for liver expert panels in daily practice to increase local treatment rates.

First-Line Systemic Treatment for Initially Unresectable Colorectal Liver Metastases: Post Hoc Analysis of the CAIRO5 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

In patients with colorectal cancer and unresectable liver-only metastases (CRLM), treatment with folinic acid, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) plus irinotecan (FOLFOXIRI) and bevacizumab vs FOLFOX/folinic acid, fluorouracil, and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) plus bevacizumab increased progression-free survival, response, and R0/R1 resection/ablation rates, as well as toxic effects in RAS/BRAFV600E-variant and/or right-sided tumors. FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-panitumumab vs FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-bevacizumab increased response at the cost of more toxic effects in RAS/BRAFV600E wild-type, left-sided tumors.

Objective

To present long-term outcomes of treatment with FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab vs FOLFOX/FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab and FOLFOX/FOLFIRI plus panitumumab vs FOLFOX/FOLFIRI + bevacizumab.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The randomized phase 3 CAIRO5 trial included patients with initially unresectable CRLM in 46 Dutch centers and 1 Belgian center between November 2014 and January 2022. A liver expert panel repeatedly evaluated resectability.

Intervention

Patients with RAS/BRAFV600E-variant and/or right-sided tumors randomly received FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-bevacizumab (group 1) or FOLFOXIRI-bevacizumab (group 2), and those with RAS/BRAFV600E wild-type, left-sided tumors received FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-bevacizumab (group 3) or FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-panitumumab (group 4). Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after complete local treatment was recommended but not standard.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall survival (OS) was analyzed as a secondary outcome. Other outcomes were post hoc analyses.

Results

A total of 530 patients (327 male [62%] and 203 female individuals [38%]; median age, 62 [IQR, 54-69] years) were randomized: 148 in group 1, 146 in group 2, 118 in group 3, and 118 in group 4. The median OS in group 1 was 23.6 (95% CI, 20.1-27.5) vs 24.1 (95% CI, 21.0-30.9) months in group 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.70-1.17; P = .44), and 39.9 (95% CI, 30.7-44.6) in group 3 vs 38.3 (95% CI, 35.3-51.3) months in group 4 (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = .75). OS was longest after complete local treatment without early (≤6 months) recurrence (64.3 months; 95% CI, 57.6 to not reached) and salvage local treatment options after early recurrence (58.9; 95% CI, 47.3 to not reached), followed by patients without salvage local treatment after early recurrence (30.5; 95% CI, 24.4-33.4) and with incomplete local treatment (28.7; 95% CI, 25.9-38.3), and worst in patients with continued unresectability (18.3; 95% CI, 15.7-20.0). After confounder adjustment, ACT was associated with longer OS (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.98) and relapse-free survival (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.48-0.88) and less early recurrence without salvage local treatment (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.25-0.85).

Conclusions and Relevance

These results support using FOLFOX/FOLFIRI-bevacizumab for patients with initially unresectable CRLM irrespective of RAS/BRAFV600E status and tumor sidedness. Patients with complete local liver treatment with salvage local treatment in case of early recurrence had the longest OS. ACT might be considered for these patients.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02162563.

Resection of colorectal liver metastases with second-line aflibercept plus FOLFIRI: Results from the RESECTION prospective French cohort

AIM

To evaluate R0/R1 resection rate in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CLM) treated with aflibercept plus FOLFIRI after failure of a prior oxaliplatin-based regimen in daily clinical practice.

METHODS

This French, multicentre, prospective, observational cohort (NCT05178745) included patients with CLM (alone or predominant; up to 5 lung nodules <2 cm allowed) initiating aflibercept plus FOLFIRI every 2 weeks per physician choice. Primary endpoint was R0/R1 resection rate. Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), radiological and pathological responses, and safety.

RESULTS

A total of 137 patients (median age 65 years, RAS/BRAF mutant 57 %/9 %) were enrolled at 22 French sites. CLM (median 4) were synchronous in 82 %, bilobar in 71 % and located in liver only in 54 %. Overall, 17 % of patients had R0/R1 resection (21 % for patients with liver-only disease). A major pathological response per Blazer score was observed in 55 % of resected patients, along with significantly longer OS (median 34.8 vs 9.1 months, p < 0.0001) and PFS (median 11.4 vs 4.9 months, p < 0.0001) compared to non-resected patients. Post-operative complications occurred in 17 % of patients (all Dindo-Clavien grade I-II) and there was no post-operative deaths. Overall, 34 % had grade ≥ 3 adverse events, mainly general health deterioration and diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that aflibercept plus FOLFIRI, after failure of a prior oxaliplatin-based regimen, allows R0/R1 resection of CLM in almost 20 % of patients with a major pathological response in most cases and a median OS prolonged by more than 3-fold versus non-resected patients.

Prognostic value of radiologic and pathological response in colorectal cancer liver metastases upon systemic induction treatment: subgroup analysis of the CAIRO5 trial

BACKGROUND

RECIST may not be optimal for assessing treatment response with current systemic regimens. We evaluated RECIST, morphologic, and pathologically documented response (pathological response) in patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver-only metastases (CRLM).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Four hundred and eighty-nine patients from the phase III CAIRO5 trial were included who were treated with FOLFOX/FOLFIRI/FOLFOXIRI and bevacizumab or panitumumab. The association of the different response tools with overall survival (OS) was evaluated for all patients, and with early recurrence (<6 months) for patients after complete local treatment.

RESULTS

In the overall population, suboptimal [hazard ratio (HR) 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-1.47] and optimal (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.74-1.22) morphologic response were not associated with OS compared with no response. RECIST partial response (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.76) and progressive disease (HR 5.77, 95% CI 3.97-8.39) were associated with OS compared with stable disease. In 242 patients who underwent local treatment, suboptimal (HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.76-1.96) and optimal (HR 1.28, 95% CI 0.89-1.86) morphologic response were not associated with OS compared with no response. RECIST partial response was not significantly associated with OS (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.52-1.01), whereas progressive disease was (HR 19.74, 95% CI 5.75-67.78), compared with stable disease. While major pathological response (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44-0.99) was associated with OS, partial pathological response (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.57-1.19) was not, compared with no pathological response. Pathological response, but not morphologic response and RECIST, was significantly associated with early recurrence (P < 0.001) which occurred in 13/58 (22%) patients with major response, 29/61 (48%) patients with partial response, and 51/88 (58%) patients with no response.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that RECIST but not morphologic response was prognostic for OS. In patients eligible for local treatment, neither RECIST nor morphologic response were associated with early recurrence. Pathological response was associated with early recurrence but is only available post-operatively. Hence, novel preoperative parameters are warranted to predict early recurrence and prevent potentially futile liver surgery.

Preoperative and postoperative predictive models of early recurrence for colorectal liver metastases following chemotherapy and curative-intent one-stage hepatectomy

INTRODUCTION

Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early recurrence (ER) among patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) following preoperative chemotherapy and hepatectomy remains limited.

METHODS

Patients with CRLM who received chemotherapy prior to undergoing curative-intent resection between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to assess clinicopathological factors associated with ER, and an online calculator was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 768 patients undergoing preoperative chemotherapy and curative-intent resection, 128 (16.7 %) patients had ER. Multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance status ≥1 (HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.46-2.98), rectal cancer (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.35-2.83), lymph node metastases (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.60-3.56), mutated Kirsten rat sarcoma oncogene status (HR 1.95, 95%CI 1.25-3.02), increase in tumor burden score during chemotherapy (HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.03-2.24), and bilateral metastases (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.35-2.79) were independent predictors of ER in the preoperative setting. In the postoperative model, in addition to the aforementioned factors, tumor regression grade was associated with higher hazards of ER (HR 1.91, 95%CI 1.32-2.75), while receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with lower likelihood of ER (HR 0.44, 95%CI 0.30-0.63). The discriminative accuracy of the preoperative (training: c-index: 0.77, 95%CI 0.72-0.81; internal validation: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.82) and postoperative (training: c-index: 0.79, 95%CI 0.75-0.83; internal validation: c-index: 0.81, 95%CI 0.77-0.84) models was favorable (https://junkawashima.shinyapps.io/CRLMfollwingchemotherapy/).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-, tumor- and treatment-related characteristics in the preoperative and postoperative setting were utilized to develop an online, easy-to-use risk calculator for ER following resection of CRLM.

Prognostic value of total tumor volume in patients with colorectal liver metastases: A secondary analysis of the randomized CAIRO5 trial with external cohort validation

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of total tumor volume (TTV) for early recurrence (within 6 months) and overall survival (OS) in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM), treated with induction systemic therapy followed by complete local treatment.

METHODS

Patients with initially unresectable CRLM from the multicenter randomized phase 3 CAIRO5 trial (NCT02162563) who received induction systemic therapy followed by local treatment were included. Baseline TTV and change in TTV as response to systemic therapy were calculated using the CT scan before and the first after systemic treatment, and were assessed for their added prognostic value. The findings were validated in an external cohort of patients treated at a tertiary center.

RESULTS

In total, 215 CAIRO5 patients were included. Baseline TTV and absolute change in TTV were significantly associated with early recurrence (P = 0.005 and P = 0.040, respectively) and OS in multivariable analyses (P = 0.024 and P = 0.006, respectively), whereas RECIST1.1 was not prognostic for early recurrence (P = 0.88) and OS (P = 0.35). In the validation cohort (n = 85), baseline TTV and absolute change in TTV remained prognostic for early recurrence (P = 0.041 and P = 0.021, respectively) and OS in multivariable analyses (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.012, respectively), and showed added prognostic value over conventional clinicopathological variables (increase C-statistic, 0.06; 95 % CI, 0.02 to 0.14; P = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Total tumor volume is strongly prognostic for early recurrence and OS in patients who underwent complete local treatment of initially unresectable CRLM, both in the CAIRO5 trial and the validation cohort. In contrast, RECIST1.1 did not show prognostic value for neither early recurrence nor OS.

BRAF mutations and survival with surgery for colorectal liver metastases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Mutations in the BRAF gene (BRAFmut) are associated with an unfavorable prognosis in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with liver metastases and the potential benefits of liver resection in patients with BRAFmut CRC.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Cochrane Central Controlled Trials, and Embase databases was conducted on May 31, 2023. The inclusion criteria were as follows:1) reporting of outcomes in patients with BRAFmut CRC who underwent surgery for liver metastases and/or comparison of outcomes between those who underwent and those who did not undergo resection; 2) reporting of survival information as hazard ratios (HR); and 3) publication in English.

RESULTS

34 studies were included. Median follow up was 48 months for prognostic BRAF status meta-analysis. BRAFmut status showed a significantly increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.04-3.22; P < 0.01) and relapse (HR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.44-2.71; P < 0.01). Resection of liver metastases was associated with a survival benefit (median follow up 46 months). The HR for survival was 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.33-0.59; P < 0.01) in favor of surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

and Relevance: Our analysis indeed confirms that BRAF mutation is associated with poor survival outcomes after liver resection of CRC metastases. However, upon quantitatively assessing the survival benefit of surgical intervention in patients with BRAF-mutated CRC liver metastases, we identified a significant 56% reduction in the risk of death.

Predicting early recurrence after resection of initially unresectable colorectal liver metastases: the role of baseline and pre-surgery clinical, radiological and molecular factors in a real-life multicentre experience

BACKGROUND

Advances in surgical techniques and systemic treatments have increased the likelihood of achieving radical surgery and long-term survival in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients with initially unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). Nonetheless, roughly half of the patients resected after an upfront systemic therapy experience disease relapse within 6 months from surgery, thus leading to the question whether surgery is actually beneficial for these patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A real-world dataset of mCRC patients with initially unresectable liver-limited disease treated with conversion chemotherapy followed by radical resection of CRLMs at three high-volume Italian institutions was retrospectively assessed with the aim of investigating the association of baseline and pre-surgical clinical, radiological and molecular factors with the risk of relapse within 6 or 12 months from surgery.

RESULTS

Overall, 268 patients were included in the analysis and 207 (77%) experienced recurrence. Ninety-six (46%) of them had disease relapse within 6 months after CRLM resection and in spite of several variables associated with early recurrence at univariate analyses, only primary tumour resection at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.89, P = 0.02] remained significant in the multivariable model. Among patients with resected primary tumours, pN+ stage was associated with higher risk of disease relapse within 6 months (OR 3.02, 95% CI 1.23-7.41, P = 0.02). One hundred and forty-nine patients (72%) had disease relapse within 12 months after CRLMs resection but none of the analysed variables was independently associated with outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical, radiological and molecular factors assessed before and after conversion chemotherapy do not reliably predict early recurrence after secondary resection of initially unresectable CRLMs. While novel markers are needed to optimize the cost/efficacy balance of surgical procedures, CRLM resection should be offered as soon as metastases become resectable during first-line chemotherapy to all patients eligible for surgery.