Blood urea nitrogen has additive value beyond estimated glomerular filtration rate for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Preoperative blood urea nitrogen-to-serum albumin ratio for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients who underwent emergency surgery for acute type A aortic dissection

The study aimed to assess the predictive value of blood urea nitrogen (BUN)-to-albumin ratio (BA-R) for in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing emergency surgery for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). Patients who were diagnosed with ATAAD and underwent emergency surgery within 48 hours of onset at our hospital between January 2015 and December 2021 were included in this study. The primary endpoint of this study was postoperative in-hospital mortality (POIM). The data of the survivors and non-survivors were retrospectively compared analyses. A total of 557 ATAAD patients were included, with 505 survivors and 52 non-survivors. The preoperative BA-R of the non-survivor group was significantly higher than that of the survivor group (P < 0.001). Univariate regression analysis showed that preoperative BA-R, serum creatinine level, SA level, D-dimer level, age, myocardial ischemia, cerebral ischemia, and aortic clamp time were risk factors for POIM. In addition, multivariable regression analysis showed that preoperative BA-R ≥ 0.155 mmol/g was a risk factor for POIM (odds ratio, 6.815 [3.582-12.964]; P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the cut-off point for preoperative BA-R was ≥0.155 mmol/g (area under the curve =0.874). The sensitivity and specificity of preoperative BA-R in predicting the POIM of patients who underwent emergency surgery for ATAAD were 84.6% and 71.3%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 0.829-0.919; P < 0.001). In conclusion, Preoperative BA-R is a simple, rapid, and potentially useful prognostic indicator of POIM in patients with ATAAD. BAR: Blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio, BUN: Blood urea nitrogen, SA: Serum albumin, REF: Reference. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of BA-R for the prediction of postoperative in-hospital mortality in patients who underwent emergency surgery for ATAAD. A total of 557 patients with ATAAD were enrolled, and 505 survived while 52 did not. The preoperative BA-R of the non-survivor group was significantly higher than that of the survivor group (0.27 [0.18, 0.46] vs. 0.12 [0.10, 0.16]mmol/g; P < 0.001). The study showed that preoperative BA-R ≥ 0.155 mmol/g was a risk factor for POIM (odds ratio, 6.815 [3.582-12.964]; P < 0.001). ROC curve indicated that the cut-off point for preoperative BA-R was ≥0.155 mmol/g (AUC = 0.874) and the sensitivity and specificity were 84.6% and 71.3%, respectively (95% CI, 0.829-0.919; P < 0.001). We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature because we found preoperative BA-R to be a simple, rapid, and potentially useful prognostic indicator of postoperative in-hospital mortality in patients with ATAAD.

Urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio predicts ventricular aneurysm formation in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

AIMS

Left ventricular aneurysm (LVA) is an important complication of acute myocardial infarction. The aim of this study was to investigate the possible predictive value of blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) for the LVA formation in acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1123 consecutive patients with STEMI were prospectively enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between LVA group and non-LVA group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the independent risk factors of LVA formation. Predictive power of BAR and composite variable for LVA formation were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve. LVA was detected in 162 patients (14.4%). The BAR was significantly higher in patients with LVA [0.16 (0.13-0.19) vs. 0.13 (0.10-0.17), P < 0.001]. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) [odds ratio (OR) = 0.865, P < 0.001], culprit vessel-left anterior descending artery (LAD) (OR = 4.705, P < 0.001), and BAR (OR = 2.208, P = 0.018) were all independent predictors for LVA formation. The predictive value of BAR remained significant even after cross-validation by splitting population into training set (OR = 1.957, P = 0.034) and validation set (OR = 1.982, P = 0.039). The maximal length and width of LVA were significantly increased in patients with BAR ≥ 0.15 when compared with BAR < 0.15 (3.37 ± 1.09 vs. 2.92 ± 0.93, P = 0.01, for maximal length, and 2.20 ± 0.55 vs. 1.85 ± 0.63, P = 0.001, for maximal width). The discriminant power of BAR for LVA is 0.723, which is superior to both blood urea nitrogen (C statistic = 0.586, P < 0.001) and albumin (C statistic = 0.64, P < 0.001). The combination of BAR, LVEF, and culprit vessel-LAD could significantly increase the predictive ability (C statistic = 0.874, P < 0.001, for vs. BAR). Subgroup analysis of age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, LVEF, serum albumin, multiple-vessel disease, and Gensini score had no effect on the association between BAR and risk of LVA formation (P < 0.05 for all subgroups).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher BAR was an independent predictor for LVA formation in STEMI patients with primary PCI.

A simple clinical risk score (ABCDMP) for predicting mortality in patients with AECOPD and cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

The morbidity and mortality among hospital inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs remains unacceptably high. Currently, no risk score for predicting mortality has been specifically developed in patients with AECOPD and CVDs. We therefore aimed to derive and validate a simple clinical risk score to assess individuals' risk of poor prognosis.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We evaluated inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs in a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter cohort study. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the independent prognostic risk factors and created a risk score model according to patients' data from a derivation cohort. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was validated and compared with the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF and NIVO models in a validation cohort.

RESULTS

We derived a combined risk score, the ABCDMP score, that included the following variables: age > 75 years, BUN > 7 mmol/L, consolidation, diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mmHg, mental status altered, and pulse > 109 beats/min. Discrimination (AUC 0.847, 95% CI, 0.805-0.890) and calibration (Hosmer‒Lemeshow statistic, P = 0.142) were good in the derivation cohort and similar in the validation cohort (AUC 0.811, 95% CI, 0.755-0.868). The ABCDMP score had significantly better predictivity for in-hospital mortality than the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF, and NIVO scores (all P < 0.001). Additionally, the new score also had moderate predictive performance for 3-year mortality and can be used to stratify patients into different management groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABCDMP risk score could help predict mortality in AECOPD and CVDs patients and guide further clinical research on risk-based treatment.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.:ChiCTR2100044625; URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .

Machine learning in the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with first acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Persistent efforts are required to further reduce the in-hospital mortality of patients suffering from acute myocardial infarction (AMI), even in the face of a global trend of declining AMI-related fatalities. We investigated deep machine learning models for in-hospital death prediction in patients on their first AMI.

METHOD

In this 2-center retrospective analysis, first AMI patients from Hospital I and Hospital II were included; 4783 patients from Hospital 1 were split in a 7:3 ratio between the training and testing sets. Data from 1053 AMI patients in Hospital II was used for further validation. 70 clinical information and laboratory examination parameters as predictive indicators were included. Logistic Regression Classifier (LR), Random Forests Classifier (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVM), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Bootstrapped Aggregation (Bagging) models with AMI patients were developed. The importance of selected variables was obtained through the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The performance of each model was shown using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (Average Precision; AP).

RESULT

The in-hospital mortality for AMI in the training, testing, and validation sets were 5.7 %, 5.6 %, and 6.0 %, respectively. The top 8 predictors were D-dimer, brain natriuretic peptide, cardiogenic shock, neutrophil, prothrombin time, blood urea nitrogen, cardiac arrest, and phosphorus. In the testing cohort, the models of LR, RF, XGB, SVM, MLP, GBM, and Bagging yielded AUROC values of 0.929, 0.931, 0.907, 0.868, 0.907, 0.923, and 0.932, respectively. Bagging has good predictive value and certain clinical value in external validation with AUROC 0.893.

CONCLUSION

In order to improve the forecasting accuracy of the risk of AMI patients, guide clinical nursing practice, and lower AMI inpatient mortality, this study looked into significant indicators and the optimal models for predicting AMI inpatient mortality.

A High Preoperative Blood Urea Nitrogen to Serum Albumin Ratio Does Not Predict Worse Outcomes Following the Robotic-Assisted Pulmonary Lobectomy for Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

 The blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (BAR) is an emerging prognostic parameter of interest. The utility of BAR as a prognostic factor has not been analyzed in lung cancer patients undergoing pulmonary lobectomy. We evaluated the ability of High BAR to predict worse outcomes after robotic-assisted pulmonary lobectomy (RAPL) for lung cancer.

METHODS

 We retrospectively analyzed 400 patients who underwent RAPL from September 2010 to March 2022 by one surgeon. Patients were stratified by Low BAR (<6.25 mg/g) and High BAR (≥6.25 mg/g). Patients' demographics, tumor characteristics, comorbidities, surgical complications, outcomes, and survival were collected and compared by High and Low BAR groups. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

 Receiver operator curves (ROC) confirmed that 6.25 was an optimal threshold for estimating mortality based on Low and High BAR. There were no differences in surgical complications or outcomes between the Low and High BAR groups. The ability of BAR to predict 30-day mortality was evaluated with the area under the curve (AUC) analysis, which showed that higher BAR could not predict mortality (AUC=0.655; 95% CI, 0.435-0.875; p=0.166). Similarly, survival analysis revealed no difference in five-year overall survival between the Low and High BAR groups (p=0.079).

CONCLUSION

 High BAR did not predict worse outcomes after RAPL for lung cancer in our study. Further studies are needed to better determine the prognostic ability of BAR in lower-risk populations.

Risk factors, prediction model, and prognosis analysis of myocardial injury after acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background

Cardiovascular complications in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) have been associated with a high-risk of subsequent adverse consequences. This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for myocardial injury in AUGIB patients, predict the risk of myocardial injury, and explore the clinical prognosis and influencing factors in AUGIB patients with myocardial injury.

Materials and methods

A retrospective case-control study based on AUGIB patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from 2016 to 2020 was performed. We divided the enrolled patients into a myocardial injury group and a control group according to whether they developed myocardial injury. The variables significant in the univariate analysis were subjected to binary logistic regression for risk factor analysis and were used to establish a nomogram for predicting myocardial injury. In addition, logistic regression analysis was performed to better understand the risk factors for in-hospital mortality after myocardial injury.

Result

Of the 989 AUGIB patients enrolled, 10.2% (101/989) developed myocardial injury. Logistic regression analysis showed that the strong predictors of myocardial injury were a history of hypertension (OR: 4.252, 95% CI: 1.149-15.730, P = 0.030), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR: 1.159, 95% CI: 1.026-1.309, P = 0.018) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <68% (OR: 3.667, 95% CI: 1.085-12.398, P = 0.037). The patients with a tumor history (digestive system tumors and non-digestive system tumors) had no significant difference between the myocardial injury group and the control group (P = 0.246). A prognostic nomogram model was established based on these factors with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.823 (95% CI: 0.730-0.916). The patients with myocardial injury had a much higher in-hospital mortality rate (10.9% vs. 2.0%, P < 0.001), and an elevated D-dimer level was related to in-hospital mortality among the AUGIB patients with myocardial injury (OR: 1.273, 95% CI: 1.085-1.494, P = 0.003).

Conclusion

A history of hypertension, renal dysfunction, and cardiac function with LVEF <68% were strong predictors of myocardial injury. Coagulopathy was found to be associated with poor prognosis in AUGIB patients with myocardial injury.

Comparison of Prognostic Value of 10 Biochemical Indices at Admission for Prediction Postoperative Myocardial Injury and Hospital Mortality in Patients with Osteoporotic Hip Fracture

Aim: To evaluate the prognostic impact at admission of 10 biochemical indices for prediction postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) and/or hospital death in hip fracture (HF) patients. Methods: In 1273 consecutive patients with HF (mean age 82.9 ± 8.7 years, 73.5% women), clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively, and outcomes were recorded. Multiple logistic regression and receiver-operating characteristic analyses (the area under the curve, AUC) were preformed, the number needed to predict (NNP) outcome was calculated. Results: Age ≥ 80 years and IHD were the most prominent clinical factors associated with both PMI (with cardiac troponin I rise) and in-hospital death. PMI occurred in 555 (43.6%) patients and contributed to 80.3% (49/61) of all deaths (mortality rate 8.8% vs. 1.9% in non-PMI patients). The most accurate biochemical predictive markers were parathyroid hormone > 6.8 pmol/L, urea > 7.5 mmol/L, 25(OH)vitamin D < 25 nmol/L, albumin < 33 g/L, and ratios gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) to alanine aminotransferase > 2.5, urea/albumin ≥ 2.0 and GGT/albumin ≥ 7.0; the AUC for developing PMI ranged between 0.782 and 0.742 (NNP: 1.84−2.13), the AUC for fatal outcome ranged from 0.803 to 0.722, (NNP: 3.77−9.52). Conclusions: In HF patients, easily accessible biochemical indices at admission substantially improve prediction of hospital outcomes, especially in the aged >80 years with IHD.

Blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratio on admission predicts mortality in patients with non ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

The aim of this study is to reveal the predictive power of biomarkers and SYNTAX (SX) score for short-term mortality in patients diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in the emergency department. This is prospective observational cohort study. Demographic characteristics of the patients, laboratory parameters on admission, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) percentages, affected vessels in angiography (CAG) and the treatment strategy [medical therapy, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), coronary angio by-pass graft] and SX scores were recorded on the data collection form. ROC curve was used to investigate the predictivity of blood urea nitrogen/albumin ratio (BAR), procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), high sensitivity cardiac troponin I (Hs-cTnI), CRP to serum albumin ratio (CAR), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and SX scores in mortality. Multivariate analysis of biomarkers and SX score was performed to estimate the patients' 30-day mortality. Of the 415 patients were included in the study. ROC analysis of BAR, CAR, CRP, Procalcitonin, Hs-cTnI, NLR and SX score to predict mortality was statistically significant. BAR (OR: 1.280, 95% CI: 1.113-1.472, p = .001) and SX score (OR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.018-1.126, p = .007) were found to be independent predictors of 30 days mortality. LVEF reduction, SX score, the number of affected vessels and the frequency of LMCA lesions increase were found to be statistically significant in patients with BAR ≥4.8. BAR, which can be calculated easily and quickly on admission to the emergency department and in clinical practice, may be used to predict mortality in patients with NSTEMI.

Association Between Pre-operative BUN and Post-operative 30-Day Mortality in Patients Undergoing Craniotomy for Tumors: Data From the ACS NSQIP Database

Objective

There is limited evidence to clarify the specific relationship between pre-operative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and post-operative 30-day mortality in patients undergoing craniotomy for tumors. Therefore, we aimed to investigate this relationship in detail.

Methods

Electronic medical records of 18,642 patients undergoing craniotomy for tumors in the ACS NSQIP from 2012 to 2015 were subjected to secondary retrospective analysis. The principal exposure was pre-operative BUN. Outcome measures were post-operative 30-day mortality. We used binary logistic regression modeling to evaluate the association between them and conducted a generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting (penalized spline method) to explore the potential relationship and its explicit curve shape. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure the robustness of the results and performed subgroup analyses.

Results

A total of 16,876 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 47.48% of patients were men. The post-operative 30-day mortality of the included cases was 2.49% (420/16,876), and the mean BUN was 16.874 ± 6.648 mg/dl. After adjusting covariates, the results showed that pre-operative BUN was positively associated with post-operative 30-day mortality (OR = 1.020, 95% CI: 1.004, 1.036). There was also a non-linear relationship between BUN and post-operative 30-day mortality, and the inflection point of the BUN was 9.804. For patients with BUN < 9.804 mg/dl, a 1 unit decrease in BUN was related to a 16.8% increase in the risk of post-operative 30-day mortality (OR = 0.832, 95% CI: 0.737, 0.941); for patients with BUN > 9.804 mg/dl, a 1 unit increase in BUN was related to a 2.8% increase in the risk of post-operative 30-day mortality (OR = 1.028, 95% CI: 1.011, 1.045). The sensitivity analysis proved that the results were robust. The subgroup analysis revealed that all listed subgroups did not affect the relationship between pre-operative BUN and post-operative 30-day mortality (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrated that pre-operative BUN (mg/dl) has specific linear and non-linear relationships with post-operative 30-day mortality in patients over 18 years of age who underwent craniotomy for tumors. Proper pre-operative management of BUN and maintenance of BUN near the inflection point (9.804 mg/dl) could reduce the risk of post-operative 30-day mortality in these cases.

Elevated Blood Urea Nitrogen to Serum Albumin Ratio Is an Adverse Prognostic Predictor for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery

Background

Elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and reduced albumin have been prominently correlated with unfavorable outcomes in patients with cardiovascular diseases. However, whether combination BUN and albumin levels could predict the adverse outcomes of cardiac surgery patients remains to be confirmed. Here, we investigated the prognostic effect of the preoperative BUN to serum albumin ratio (BAR) in cardiac surgery patients.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III and eICU databases and classified into a training cohort and validation cohort. The BAR (mg/g) was calculated by initial BUN (mg/dl)/serum albumin (g/dl). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were 1-year mortality, prolonged length at intensive care unit, and duration of hospital stay. The associations of BAR with outcomes were explored by multivariate regression analysis and subgroup analyses. Then, C statistics were performed to assess the added prognostic impact of BAR beyond a baseline risk model.

Results

Patients with in-hospital death had significantly higher levels of BAR. Multivariate regression analysis identified BAR, as a categorical or continuous variable, as an independent factor for adverse outcomes of cardiac surgery (all p < 0.05). Subgroup analyses demonstrated a significant relationship between elevated BAR and in-hospital mortality in different subclasses. The addition of BAR to a baseline model provided additional prognostic information benefits for assessing primary outcome. Results were concordant in the external validation cohort.

Conclusions

Increased preoperative BAR is a potent predictor of unfavorable outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Blood Urea Nitrogen-to-Albumin Ratio in Predicting Long-Term Mortality in Patients Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Database

Background

This study examined the role of blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (BAR) in predicting long-term mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, patients undergoing CABG were enrolled from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) database. Patients were divided into the three groups according to the optimal cutoff values of BAR determined by X-tile software. The survival curve was constructed by the Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to explore the independent prognostic factors of 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated to estimate the accuracy of BAR in predicting the outcomes. Subgroup analyses were also carried out.

Results

A total of 1,462 patients at 4-year follow-up were included, of which 933, 293, and 236 patients were categorized into the group 1 (≤ 6.45 mg/g), group 2 (>6.45 and ≤ 10.23 mg/g), and group 3 (>10.23 mg/g), respectively. Non-survivors showed an increased level of BAR at both 1- (p < 0.001) and 4-year (p < 0.001) follow-up compared with the survivors. The patients with a higher BAR had a higher risk of 1- and 4-year mortality following CABG (33.05 vs. 14.33 vs. 5.14%, p < 0.001 and 52.97 vs. 30.72 vs. 13.08%, p < 0.001, respectively). Cox proportional hazards regression model suggested a higher BAR as an independent risk factor of 1-year mortality (HR 3.904; 95% CI 2.559–5.956; P < 0.001) and 4-year mortality (HR 2.895; 95% CI 2.138–3.921; P < 0.001) after adjusting for confounders. Besides, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed the better predictive ability of BAR compared to other grading scores at both 1- (0.7383, 95% CI: 0.6966–0.7800) and 4-year mortality (0.7189, 95% CI: 0.6872–0.7506). Subgroup analysis demonstrated no heterogeneous results of BAR in 4-year mortality in particular groups of patient.

Conclusion

This report provided evidence of an independent association between 1- and 4-year mortality after CABG and BAR. A higher BAR was associated with a higher risk of long-term mortality and could serve as a prognostic predictor in patients following CABG.

Fragmented QRS predicted major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease and percutaneous coronary intervention, 10-years of follow-up

Aim    Identifying high-risk groups in patient with coronary artery disease (CAD) is critical for predicting future adverse events. fQRS has been shown to be related to major cardiovascular adverse events (MACE) in patients with CAD. However, predictive value of fQRS for more than 5 yrs has not been evaluated. This study examined the predictive value of fQRS in patients with CAD and percutaneous coronary intervention during a 10‑yrs period.Material and methods    Patients with CAD and percutaneous coronary intervention between March 2007 and May 2009 were included the study. An electrocardiogram was recorded following percutaneous coronary intervention and analyzed for the presence of fQRS. The fQRS pattern was defined as an additional spike inside the QRS complexes of at least two consecutive leads. Patients were followed for 10 yrs. A MACE was all-cause mortality or new-onset decompensated heart failure. Patients were divided into two groups according to presence or absence of MACE, and their clinical variables were compared.Results    Of 1261 patients included in the study, MACE developed in 374 (29.6 %). MACE (+) patients were older (p&lt;0.001), more likely to have diabetes mellitus (p=0.003), fQRS (p&lt;0.001), and ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) (p&lt;0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that age (p&lt;0.001), STEMI (p=0.001), fQRS (p=0.017), and elevated serum creatinine (p=0.001) were independent predictors of MACE.Conclusion    The presence of fQRS predicted MACE during 10 yrs of follow-up of patients with CAD and percutaneous coronary intervention.

Do biomarkers have predictive value in the treatment modality of the patients diagnosed with bowel obstruction?

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the ability of the biomarkers to predict the surgery treatment and mortality in patients above 18 years of age who were hospitalized with the diagnosis of bowel obstruction from the emergency department.

METHODS

This is a 2-year retrospective study. The patients' demographic data, laboratory parameters on admission to emergency department, treatment modalities, and the length of hospital stay were recorded. Patients were divided into two groups: conservative and surgical treatment. Statistical analysis was performed to investigate the value of biomarkers in predicting mortality and the need for surgery. Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS version 22.

RESULTS

A total of 179 patients were included in this study. Of these, 105 (58.7%) patients were treated conservative and 74 (41.3%) were treated operatively. The elevated procalcitonin (PCT) level, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio, and lactate-to-albumin ratio were significantly correlated with surgical treatment, length of hospital stay, and mortality. procalcitonin threshold value of 0.13 ng/mL was able to predict the need for surgical treatment, with a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 70.3%. Procalcitonin threshold value of 0.65 ng/mL was able to predict the mortality rate of the patients, with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 78.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers, especially procalcitonin, may be useful in bowel obstruction treatment management and may predict mortality.

Development and Validation of Nomogram to Predict Long-Term Prognosis of Critically Ill Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

Purpose

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a common cardiovascular disease with a poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for predicting the long-term survival of critically ill patients with AMI. This nomogram will help in assessing disease severity, guiding treatment, and improving prognosis.

Patients and Methods

The clinical data of patients with AMI were extracted from the MIMIC-III v1.4 database. Cox proportional hazards models were adopted to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram for predicting the long-term survival of these patients was developed on the basis of the results of multifactor analysis. The discriminative ability and accuracy of the multifactor analysis were evaluated according to concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.

Results

A total of 1202 patients were included in the analysis. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 841) and a validation set (n = 361). Multivariate analysis revealed that age, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, hemoglobin, pneumonia, cardiogenic shock, dialysis, and mechanical ventilation, all of which were incorporated into the nomogram, were independent predictive factors of AMI. Moreover, the nomogram exhibited favorable performance in predicting the 4-year survival of patients with AMI. The training set and the validation set had a C-index of 0.789 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.765–0.813) and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.725–0.799), respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram constructed herein can accurately predict the long-term survival of critically ill patients with AMI.

Fibrosis, the Bad Actor in Cardiorenal Syndromes: Mechanisms Involved

Cardiorenal syndrome is a term that defines the complex bidirectional nature of the interaction between cardiac and renal disease. It is well established that patients with kidney disease have higher incidence of cardiovascular comorbidities and that renal dysfunction is a significant threat to the prognosis of patients with cardiac disease. Fibrosis is a common characteristic of organ injury progression that has been proposed not only as a marker but also as an important driver of the pathophysiology of cardiorenal syndromes. Due to the relevance of fibrosis, its study might give insight into the mechanisms and targets that could potentially be modulated to prevent fibrosis development. The aim of this review was to summarize some of the pathophysiological pathways involved in the fibrotic damage seen in cardiorenal syndromes, such as inflammation, oxidative stress and endoplasmic reticulum stress, which are known to be triggers and mediators of fibrosis.

Blood urea nitrogen is associated with long-term all-cause mortality in stable angina pectoris patients: 8-year follow-up results

Background    Elevation of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) indicates renal dysfunction and is associated with increased mortality in cardiovascular diseases. We investigated the relationship between the BUN concentration measured at hospital admission and the long-term all-cause mortality in patients with stable angina pectoris (SAP).Methods    The mortality rate of 344 patients who underwent coronary angiography (CAG) in our clinic due to SAP was analyzed during a mean follow-up period of 8 yrs.Results    Age (p&lt;0.001), male gender (p=0.020), waist circumference (p=0.007), body-mass index (p=0.002), fasting glucose (p=0.004), BUN (p&lt;0.001), serum creatinine (Cr) (p&lt;0.001), hemoglobin (p=0.015), triglyceride concentrations (p=0.033), and the Gensini score (p&lt;0.001) were related to all-cause mortality as shown by univariate Cox regression analysis. Age (OR 1.056, 95 % CI 1.015-1.100, p=0.008), fasting glucose (OR 1.006, 95 % CI 1.001-1.011, p=0.018), BUN, (OR 1.077, 95 % CI 1.026-1.130, p=0.003), and the Gensini score (OR 2.269, 95 % CI 1.233-4.174, p=0.008) were significantly related with mortality as shown by multivariate Cox regression analysis. According to receiver operating characteristic analysis ofthe sensitivity and specificity of BUN and Cr for predicting mortality, the area under the curve values of BUN and Cr were 0.789 (p&lt;0.001) and 0.652 (p=0.001), respectively. BUN had a stronger relationship with mortality than Cr. A concentration of BUN above 16.1 mg / dl had 90.1 % sensitivity and 60 % specificity for predicting mortality (OR=2.23).Conclusion    In patients who underwent CAG due to SAP, the BUN concentration was associated with all-cause mortality during a mean follow-up period of 8 yrs.

Impact of worsening renal function on peak oxygen uptake in patients with acute myocardial infarction

AIM

Worsening renal function (WRF) induced by acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. Peak oxygen uptake may contribute to prognosis in AMI patients with WRF, however, the impact of WRF on peak oxygen uptake is unclear.

METHODS

Among 154 patients with AMI who underwent emergency percutaneous coronary intervention and participated in phase II cardiac rehabilitation, those who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing were consecutively enrolled. WRF was defined as a ≥20% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [ml/min/1.73 m² ]) from admission to that at cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The association of WRF with peak oxygen uptake was evaluated by multivariate regression analysis. The non-WRF group was divided into two subgroups according to eGFR <60/≥60 at cardiopulmonary exercise testing, and eGFR at cardiopulmonary exercise testing and peak oxygen uptake of all three groups were compared.

RESULTS

Ninety-four patients were enrolled in the final analysis. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that WRF was associated with peak oxygen uptake (p = .003). Comparing the non-WRF group with eGFR at cardiopulmonary exercise testing <60 and the WRF group, although eGFR at cardiopulmonary exercise testing was similar (p = 1.000), peak oxygen uptake in the WRF group was significantly lower (p = .026).

CONCLUSION

WRF, not eGFR at cardiopulmonary exercise testing was significantly associated with peak oxygen uptake in patients with AMI. This result suggests that when considering the relationship between renal function and peak oxygen uptake, WRF must be taken into account.

Blood Urea Nitrogen and In-Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Cardiogenic Shock: Analysis of the MIMIC-III Database

The association between blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and prognosis has been the focus of recent research. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the association between BUN and hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cardiogenic shock (CS). This was a retrospective cohort study, in which data were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III V1.4 database. Data from 697 patients with CS were analyzed. Logistic regression and subgroup analyses were used to assess the association between BUN and hospital mortality in patients with CS. The average age of the 697 participants was 71.14 years, and approximately 42.18% were men. In the multivariate logistic regression model, after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, cardiac arrhythmias, urine output, simplified acute physiology score II, sequential organ failure assessment, creatinine, anion gap, and heart rate, high BUN demonstrated strong associations with increased in-hospital mortality (per standard deviation increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13–1.92). A similar result was observed in BUN tertile groups (BUN 23–37 mg/dL versus 6–22 mg/dL: OR [95% CI], 1.42 [0.86–2.34]; BUN 38–165 mg/dL versus 6–22 mg/dL: OR [95% CI], 1.99 [1.10–3.62]; P trend 0.0272). Subgroup analysis did not reveal any significant interactions among various subgroups, and higher BUN was associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CS.

Preoperative blood urea nitrogen-to-left ventricular ejection fraction ratio is an independent predictor of long-term major adverse cardiac events in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery

Background

Long-term mortality rate following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedure is still considered to be high despite advances in surgical techniques and perioperative management. Identifying high-risk patients by using cost-effective and clinically useful parameters is needed.

Methods

Patients who were admitted to our cardiology clinic with the diagnosis of coronary artery disease and underwent CABG between January 2008 and August 2010 were included. Study patients were followed-up for 112.6 ± 17.8 months for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) which were defined as all-cause mortality and new-onset decompensated heart failure (HF).

Results

Patients in MACE (+) group were older (p < 0.001), had higher additive Euroscore (p < 0.001), and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that additive Euroscore [odds ratio (OR) = 1.601; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.374–1.864; p < 0.001)] and blood urea nitrogen-to-left ventricular ejection fraction ratio (BUNEFr; OR = 1.028; 95% CI = 1.006–1.050; p = 0.011) independently predicted MACE. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that BUNEFr had an area under curve of 0.794 and BUNEFr >33 had a sensitivity and specificity of 74% and 64%, respectively.

Conclusion

BUNEFr is a clinically useful and cost-effective parameter for the prediction of long-term mortality and new-onset decompensated HF in patients undergoing CABG.

Blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio is a predictor of in-hospital mortality in older emergency department patients

INTRODUCTION

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the first measured blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/albumin ratio in the emergency department (ED) as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in older ED patients.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study was conducted at a university hospital ED. Consecutive patients aged 65 and over who visited the ED in a three-month period were included in the study. The BUN, albumin, creatinine, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of patients were recorded. The primary end point of the study was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1253 patients were included in the statistical analyses of the study. Non-survivors had increased BUN levels (32.9 (23.3-55.4) vs. 20.2 (15.4-28.3) mg/dL, p < 0.001), decreased albumin levels (3.27 (2.74-3.75) vs. 3.96 (3.52-4.25) g/dL, p < 0.001), and increased BUN/albumin ratios (10.19 (6.56-18.94) vs. 5.21 (3.88-7.72) mg/g, p < 0.001) compared to survivors. An increased BUN/albumin ratio was a powerful predictor of in-hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.793 (95% CI: 0.753-0.833). Malignancy (OR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.59-3.74, p < 0.001), albumin level < 3.5 g/dL (OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.74-4.36, p < 0.001), and BUN/albumin ratio > 6.25 (OR: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.22-6.50, p < 0.015) were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in older ED patients.

CONCLUSION

According to our findings, older patients with a BUN level > 23 mg/dL, an albumin level < 3.5 g/dL, and a BUN/albumin ratio > 6.25 mg/g in the ED have a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Additionally, the BUN/albumin ratio is a more powerful independent predictor of in-hospital mortality than the BUN level, albumin level, creatinine level, and eGFR in older ED patients.