Top-down and bottom-up modeling in system pharmacology to understand clinical efficacy: An example with NRTIs of HIV-1

Modeling of HIV-1 prophylactic efficacy and toxicity with islatravir shows non-superiority for oral dosing, but promise as a subcutaneous implant

HIV prevention with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) constitutes a major pillar in fighting the ongoing epidemic. While daily oral PrEP adherence may be challenging, long-acting (LA-)PrEP in oral or implant formulations could overcome frequent dosing with convenient administration. The novel drug islatravir (ISL) may be suitable for LA-PrEP, but dose-dependent reductions inCD 4 + T cell and lymphocyte counts were observed at high doses. We developed a mathematical model to predict ISL pro-drug levels in plasma and active intracellular ISL-triphosphate concentrations after oral vs. subcutaneous implant dosing. Using phase II trial data, we simulated antiviral effects and estimated HIV risk reduction for multiple dosages and dosing frequencies. We then established exposure thresholds where no adverse effects on immune cells were observed. Our findings suggest that implants with 56-62 mg ISL offer effective HIV risk reduction without reducing lymphocyte counts. Oral 0.1 mg daily, 3-5 mg weekly, and 10 mg biweekly ISL provide comparable efficacy, but weekly and biweekly doses may affect lymphocyte counts, while daily dosing regimen offered no advantage over existing oral PrEP. Oral 0.5-1 mg on demand provided> 90 % protection, while not being suitable for post-exposure prophylaxis. These findings suggest ISL could be considered for further development as a promising and safe agent for implantable PrEP.

Model-based predictions of protective HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis adherence levels in cisgender women

Most human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections occur in cisgender women in resource-limited settings. In women, self-protection with emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pre-exposure prophylaxis (FTC/TDF-PrEP) constitutes a major pillar of HIV prevention. However, clinical trials in women had inconsistent outcomes, sparking uncertainty about adherence requirements and reluctance in evaluating on-demand regimens. We analyzed data from published FTC/TDF-PrEP trials to establish efficacy ranges in cisgender women. In a 'bottom-up' approach, we modeled hypotheses in the context of risk-group-specific, adherence-efficacy profiles and challenged those hypotheses with clinical data. We found that different clinical outcomes were related to the proportion of women taking the product, allowing coherent interpretation of the data. Our analysis showed that 90% protection was achieved when women took some product. We found that hypotheses of putative male/female differences were either not impactful or statistically inconsistent with clinical data. We propose that differing clinical outcomes could arise from pill-taking behavior rather than biological factors driving specific adherence requirements in cisgender women.

Clinical trial simulation to evaluate tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis dosing during pregnancy

Objective

To evaluate upward-adjustment of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) dosing during pregnancy in order to maintain target plasma concentrations associated with HIV protection.

Design

Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling and clinical trial simulation (CTS).

Material and methods

We developed population pharmacokinetic models for TFV and FTC using data from the Partners Demonstration Project and a PK study of TDF/FTC among cisgender women by Coleman et al., and performed an in-silico simulation. Pregnancy-trimester was identified as a significant covariate on apparent clearance in the optimized final model. We simulated 1,000 pregnant individuals starting standard daily oral TDF/FTC (300 mg/200 mg) prior to pregnancy. Upon becoming pregnant, simulated patients were split into two study arms: one continuing standard-dose and the other receiving double standard-dose throughout pregnancy.

Results

Standard-dose trough TFV concentrations were significantly lower in pregnancy compared to pre-pregnancy, with 34.0%, 43.8%, and 65.1% of trough plasma concentrations below the lower bound of expected trough concentrations presumed to be the protective threshold in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd trimesters, respectively. By comparison, in the simulated double-dose group, 10.7%, 14.4%, and 27.8% of trough concentrations fell below the estimated protective thresholds in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd trimesters, respectively. The FTC trough plasma concentration during pregnancy was also lower than pre-pregnancy, with 45.2% of the steady-state trough concentrations below the estimated protective trough concentrations of FTC. In the pregnancy-adjusted double-dose group, 24.1% of trough plasma concentrations were lower than protective levels.

Conclusions

Our simulation shows >50% of research participants on standard dosing would have 3rd trimester trough plasma TFV concentrations below levels associated with protection. This simulation provides the quantitative basis for the design of prospective TDF/FTC studies during pregnancy to evaluate the safety and appropriateness of pregnancy-adjusted dosing.

Pharmacokinetic Model of Tenofovir and Emtricitabine and Their Intracellular Metabolites in Patients in the ANRS 134-COPHAR 3 Trial Using Dose Records

Tenofovir (TFV) and emtricitabine (FTC) are part of the recommended highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART). Both molecules show a large interindividual pharmacokinetic (PK) variability. Here, we modeled the concentrations of plasma TFV and FTC and their intracellular metabolites (TFV diphosphate [TFV-DP] and FTC triphosphate [FTC-TP]) collected after 4 and 24 weeks of treatment in 34 patients from the ANRS 134-COPHAR 3 trial. These patients received daily (QD) atazanavir (300 mg), ritonavir (100 mg), and a fixed-dose combination of coformulated TFV disoproxil fumarate (300 mg) and FTC (200 mg). Dosing history was collected using a medication event monitoring system. A three-compartment model with absorption delay (Tlag) was selected to describe the PK of, respectively, TFV/TFV-DP and FTC/FTC-TP. TFV and FTC apparent clearances, 114 L/h (relative standard error [RSE] = 8%) and 18.1 L/h (RSE = 5%), respectively, were found to decrease with age. However, no significant association was found with the polymorphisms ABCC2 rs717620, ABCC4 rs1751034, and ABCB1 rs1045642. The model allows prediction of TFV-DP and FTC-TP concentrations at steady state with alternative regimens.

REverSe TRanscrIptase chain termination (RESTRICT) for selective measurement of nucleotide analogs used in HIV care and prevention

Sufficient drug concentrations are required for efficacy of antiretroviral drugs used in HIV care and prevention. Measurement of nucleotide analogs, included in most HIV medication regimens, enables monitoring of short- and long-term adherence and the risk of treatment failure. The REverSe TRanscrIptase Chain Termination (RESTRICT) assay rapidly infers the concentration of intracellular nucleotide analogs based on the inhibition of DNA synthesis by HIV reverse transcriptase enzyme. Here, we introduce a probabilistic model for RESTRICT and demonstrate selective measurement of multiple nucleotide analogs using DNA templates designed according to the chemical structure of each drug. We measure clinically relevant concentrations of tenofovir diphosphate, emtricitabine triphosphate, lamivudine triphosphate, and azidothymidine triphosphate with agreement between experiment and theory. RESTRICT represents a new class of activity-based assays for therapeutic drug monitoring in HIV care and could be extended to other diseases treated with nucleotide analogs.

Mathematical Modelling of the Molecular Mechanisms of Interaction of Tenofovir with Emtricitabine against HIV

The combination of the two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) is used in most highly active antiretroviral therapies for treatment of HIV-1 infection, as well as in pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV acquisition. Administered as prodrugs, these drugs are taken up by HIV-infected target cells, undergo intracellular phosphorylation and compete with natural deoxynucleoside triphosphates (dNTP) for incorporation into nascent viral DNA during reverse transcription. Once incorporated, they halt reverse transcription. In vitro studies have proposed that TDF and FTC act synergistically within an HIV-infected cell. However, it is unclear whether, and which, direct drug–drug interactions mediate the apparent synergy. The goal of this work was to refine a mechanistic model for the molecular mechanism of action (MMOA) of nucleoside analogues in order to analyse whether putative direct interactions may account for the in vitro observed synergistic effects. Our analysis suggests that depletion of dNTP pools can explain apparent synergy between TDF and FTC in HIV-infected cells at clinically relevant concentrations. Dead-end complex (DEC) formation does not seem to significantly contribute to the synergistic effect. However, in the presence of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), its role might be more relevant, as previously reported in experimental in vitro studies.

Pharmacokinetics and population pharmacokinetics in pediatric oncology

Pharmacokinetic research has become increasingly important in pediatric oncology as it can have direct clinical implications and is a crucial component in individualized medicine. Population pharmacokinetics has become a popular method especially in children, due to the potential for sparse sampling, flexible sampling times, computing of heterogeneous data, and identification of variability sources. However, population pharmacokinetic reports can be complex and difficult to interpret. The aim of this article is to provide a basic explanation of population pharmacokinetics, using clinical examples from the field of pediatric oncology, to facilitate the translation of pharmacokinetic research into the daily clinic.

Topical Microbicides in HIV Prevention: State of the Promise

HIV topical microbicides are products with anti-HIV activity, generally incorporating a direct-acting antiretroviral agent, that when applied to the vagina or rectum have the potential to prevent the sexual acquisition of HIV in women and men. Topical microbicides may meet the prevention needs of individuals and groups for whom oral daily forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have not been acceptable. Microbicides can provide personal control over HIV prevention and offer the possibility of discreet use, qualities that may be particularly important for receptive partners in sexual relationships such as women and transgender women and men, who together account for the clear majority of new HIV infections worldwide. Although the promise of such a product emerged nearly three decades ago, proof of concept has been demonstrated only within the last decade. A robust pipeline of microbicidal gels, films, inserts, and rings has been evaluated in multiple studies among at-risk women and men, and refinement of products for ease of use, reversibility, and high safety is the priority for the field.

The Utility of Efavirenz-based Prophylaxis Against HIV Infection. A Systems Pharmacological Analysis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is considered one of the five “pillars” by UNAIDS to reduce HIV transmission. Moreover, it is a tool for female self-protection against HIV, making it highly relevant to sub-Saharan regions, where women have the highest infection burden. To date, Truvada is the only medication for PrEP. However, the cost of Truvada limits its uptake in resource-constrained countries. Similarly, several currently investigated, patent-protected compounds may be unaffordable in these regions. We set out to explore the potential of the patent-expired antiviral efavirenz (EFV) as a cost-efficient PrEP alternative. A population pharmacokinetic model utilizing data from the ENCORE1 study was developed. The model was refined for metabolic autoinduction. We then explored EFV cellular uptake mechanisms, finding that it is largely determined by plasma protein binding. Next, we predicted the prophylactic efficacy of various EFV dosing schemes after exposure to HIV using a stochastic simulation framework. We predicted that plasma concentrations of 11, 36, 1287 and 1486ng/mL prevent 90% sexual transmissions with wild type and Y181C, K103N and G190S mutants, respectively. Trough concentrations achieved after 600 mg once daily dosing (median: 2017 ng/mL, 95% CI:445–9830) and after reduced dose (400 mg) efavirenz (median: 1349ng/mL, 95% CI: 297–6553) provided complete protection against wild-type virus and the Y181C mutant, and median trough concentrations provided about 90% protection against the K103N and G190S mutants. As reduced dose EFV has a lower toxicity profile, we predicted the reduction in HIV infection when 400 mg EFV-PrEP was poorly adhered to, when it was taken “on demand” and as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Once daily EFV-PrEP provided 99% protection against wild-type virus, if ≥50% of doses were taken. PrEP “on demand” provided complete protection against wild-type virus and prevented ≥81% infections in the mutants. PEP could prevent >98% infection with susceptible virus when initiated within 24 h after virus exposure and continued for at least 9 days. We predict that 400 mg oral EFV may provide superior protection against wild-type HIV. However, further studies are warranted to evaluate EFV as a cost-efficient alternative to Truvada. Predicted prophylactic concentrations may guide release kinetics of EFV long-acting formulations for clinical trial design.

Mechanistic framework predicts drug-class specific utility of antiretrovirals for HIV prophylaxis

Currently, there is no effective vaccine to halt HIV transmission. However, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with the drug combination Truvada can substantially decrease HIV transmission in individuals at risk. Despite its benefits, Truvada-based PrEP is expensive and needs to be taken once-daily, which often leads to inadequate adherence and incomplete protection. These deficits may be overcome by next-generation PrEP regimen, including currently investigated long-acting formulations, or patent-expired drugs. However, poor translatability of animal- and ex vivo/in vitro experiments, and the necessity to conduct long-term (several years) human trials involving considerable sample sizes (N>1000 individuals) are major obstacles to rationalize drug-candidate selection. We developed a prophylaxis modelling tool that mechanistically considers the mode-of-action of all available drugs. We used the tool to screen antivirals for their prophylactic utility and identify lower bound effective concentrations that can guide dose selection in PrEP trials. While in vitro measurable drug potency usually guides PrEP trial design, we found that it may over-predict PrEP potency for all drug classes except reverse transcriptase inhibitors. While most drugs displayed graded concentration-prophylaxis profiles, protease inhibitors tended to switch between none- and complete protection. While several treatment-approved drugs could be ruled out as PrEP candidates based on lack-of-prophylactic efficacy, darunavir, efavirenz, nevirapine, etravirine and rilpivirine could more potently prevent infection than existing PrEP regimen (Truvada). Notably, some drugs from this candidate set are patent-expired and currently neglected for PrEP repurposing. A next step is to further trim this candidate set by ruling out compounds with ominous safety profiles, to assess different administration schemes in silico and to test the remaining candidates in human trials.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a novel, promising strategy to halt HIV transmission. PrEP with Truvada can substantially decrease the risk of infection. However, individuals often inadequately adhere to the once-daily regimen and the drug is expensive. These shortcomings may be overcome by next-generation PrEP compounds, including long-acting formulations. However, poor translatability of animal- and ex vivo/in vitro experiments, and difficulties in conducting long-term trials involving considerable sample sizes (N > 1000 individuals) make drug-candidate selection and optimization of administration schemes costly and often infeasible. We developed a simulation tool that mechanistically considers the mode-of-action of all antivirals. We used the tool to screen all available antivirals for their prophylactic utility and identified lower bound effective concentrations for designing PrEP dosing regimen in clinical trials. We found that in vitro measured drug potency may over-predict PrEP potency, for all antiviral classes except reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We could rule out a number of antivirals for PrEP repurposing and predicted that darunavir, efavirenz, nevirapine, etravirine and rilpivirine provide complete protection at clinically relevant concentrations. Further trimming of this candidate set by compound-safety and by assessing different implementation schemes is envisaged.

HIV Antiretroviral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: Development Challenges and Pipeline Promise

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved oral daily tenofovir/emtricitabine (Truvada) for pre-exposure prophylaxis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in 2012 on the basis of two randomized controlled trials (RCTs), one in men who have sex with men (MSM) and another in HIV serodiscordant heterosexual couples. Subsequently, even greater efficacy has been demonstrated in MSM with rapid population-level incidence reductions in some locations. In contrast, studies of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in heterosexual women showed only modest or no efficacy, largely attributed to low adherence. The mixed results of antiretroviral-based PrEP bear witness to unique drug development challenges at this complicated intersection of sexual behavior, public health, and drug development. Multiple innovative methods and formulation strategies followed to address unmet medical needs of persons struggling with daily oral PrEP adherence or preference for nonsystemic PrEP options. Clinical pharmacology plays essential roles throughout this PrEP development process, especially in early product development and through pharmacologically informed enhancement and interpretation of clinical trials.

Insight into treatment of HIV infection from viral dynamics models

The odds of living a long and healthy life with HIV infection have dramatically improved with the advent of combination antiretroviral therapy. Along with the early development and clinical trials of these drugs, and new field of research emerged called viral dynamics, which uses mathematical models to interpret and predict the time-course of viral levels during infection and how they are altered by treatment. In this review, we summarize the contributions that virus dynamics models have made to understanding the pathophysiology of infection and to designing effective therapies. This includes studies of the multiphasic decay of viral load when antiretroviral therapy is given, the evolution of drug resistance, the long-term persistence latently infected cells, and the rebound of viremia when drugs are stopped. We additionally discuss new work applying viral dynamics models to new classes of investigational treatment for HIV, including latency-reversing agents and immunotherapy.

Hybrid stochastic framework predicts efficacy of prophylaxis against HIV: An example with different dolutegravir prophylaxis schemes

To achieve the 90-90-90 goals set by UNAIDS, the number of new HIV infections needs to decrease to approximately 500,000 by 2020. One of the 'five pillars' to achieve this goal is pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Truvada (emtricitabine-tenofovir) is currently the only medication approved for PrEP. Despite its advantages, Truvada is costly and requires individuals to adhere to the once-daily regimen. To improve PrEP, many next-generation regimen, including long-acting formulations, are currently investigated. However, pre-clinical testing may not guide candidate selection, since it often fails to translate into clinical efficacy. On the other hand, quantifying prophylactic efficacy in the clinic is ethically problematic and requires to conduct long (years) and large (N>1000 individuals) trials, precluding systematic evaluation of candidates and deployment strategies. To prioritize- and help design PrEP regimen, tools are urgently needed that integrate pharmacological-, viral- and host factors determining prophylactic efficacy. Integrating the aforementioned factors, we developed an efficient and exact stochastic simulation approach to predict prophylactic efficacy, as an example for dolutegravir (DTG). Combining the population pharmacokinetics of DTG with the stochastic framework, we predicted that plasma concentrations of 145.18 and 722.23nM prevent 50- and 90% sexual transmissions respectively. We then predicted the reduction in HIV infection when DTG was used in PrEP, PrEP 'on demand' and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) before/after virus exposure. Once daily PrEP with 50mg oral DTG prevented 99-100% infections, and 85% of infections when 50% of dosing events were missed. PrEP 'on demand' prevented 79-84% infections and PEP >80% when initiated within 6 hours after virus exposure and continued for as long as possible. While the simulation framework can easily be adapted to other PrEP candidates, our simulations indicated that oral 50mg DTG is non-inferior to Truvada. Moreover, the predicted 90% preventive concentrations can guide release kinetics of currently developed DTG nano-formulations.

Population variability in animal health: Influence on dose-exposure-response relationships: Part II: Modelling and simulation

During the 2017 Biennial meeting, the American Academy of Veterinary Pharmacology and Therapeutics hosted a 1-day session on the influence of population variability on dose-exposure-response relationships. In Part I, we highlighted some of the sources of population variability. Part II provides a summary of discussions on modelling and simulation tools that utilize existing pharmacokinetic data, can integrate drug physicochemical characteristics with species physiological characteristics and dosing information or that combine observed with predicted and in vitro information to explore and describe sources of variability that may influence the safe and effective use of veterinary pharmaceuticals.

Establishment of intracellular tenofovir-diphosphate as the key determinant for in vitro-in vivo translation of antiviral efficacy

In vitro evaluation of tenofovir disproxil fumarate (TDF) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) revealed comparable antiviral effects with respect to the tenofovir-diphosphate (TFV-DP) level in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), despite the EC₅₀ values determined based on prodrug concentrations were nearly two orders of magnitude apart. In vivo EC₅₀ obtained from meta-analyses were in good agreement with the in vitro results, indicating intracellular TFV-DP can be employed for in vitro-in vivo translation of viral inhibition for tenofovir prodrugs. Current analysis indicated that the intracellular concentrations of TFV-DP achieving maximal antiviral effect in vitro can be directly translatable in the clinic to accomplish maximal viral load suppression attainable by tenofovir-prodrugs.

Multiscale Systems-Pharmacology Pipeline to Assess the Prophylactic Efficacy of NRTIs Against HIV-1

While HIV-1 continues to spread, the use of antivirals in preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has recently been suggested. Here we present a modular systems pharmacology modeling pipeline, predicting PrEP efficacy of nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) at the scale of reverse transcription, target-cell, and systemic infection and after repeated viral exposures, akin to clinical trials. We use this pipeline to benchmark the prophylactic efficacy of all currently approved NRTIs in wildtype and mutant viruses. By integrating pharmacokinetic models, we find that intracellular tenofovir-diphosphate builds up too slowly to halt infection when taken "on demand" and that lamivudine may substitute emtricitabine in PrEP combinations. Lastly, we delineate factors confounding clinical PrEP efficacy estimates and provide a method to overcome these. The presented framework is useful to screen and optimize PrEP candidates and strategies and to understand their clinical efficacy by integrating the diverse scales which determine PrEP efficacy.