Clinical prediction of survival by surgeons for patients with incurable abdominal malignancy

Comprehensive surgical treatment strategy for spinal metastases

The management of patients with spinal metastases (SM) requires a multidisciplinary team of specialists involved in oncological care. Surgical management has evolved significantly over the recent years, which warrants reevaluation of its role in the oncological treatment concept. Any patient with a SM was screened for study inclusion. We report baseline characteristics, surgical procedures, complication rates, functional status and outcome of a large consecutive cohort undergoing surgical treatment according to an algorithm. 667 patients underwent 989 surgeries with a mean age of 65 years (min/max 20–94) between 2007 and 2018. The primary cancers mostly originated from the prostate (21.7%), breast (15.9%) and lung (10.0%). Surgical treatment consisted of dorsoventral stabilization in 69.5%, decompression without instrumentation in 12.5% and kyphoplasty in 18.0%. Overall survival reached 18.4 months (95% CI 9.8–26.9) and the median KPS increased by 10 within hospital stay. Surgical management of SMs should generally represent the first step of a conclusive treatment algorithm. The need to preserve long-term symptom control and biomechanical stability requires a surgical strategy currently not supported by level I evidence.

How palliative care professionals deal with predicting life expectancy at the end of life: predictors and accuracy

PURPOSE

To assess the accuracy of hospice staff in predicting survival of subjects admitted to hospice, exploring the factors considered most helpful by the hospice staff to accurately predict survival.

METHODS

Five physicians and 11 nurses were asked to predict survival at admission of 827 patients. Actual and predicted survival times were divided into ≤ 1 week, 2-3 weeks, 4-8 weeks, and ≥ 2 months and the accuracy of the estimates was calculated. The staff members were each asked to score 17 clinical variables that guided them in predicting survival and we analyzed how these variables impacted the accuracy.

RESULTS

Physicians' and nurses' accuracy of survival of the patients was 46% and 40% respectively. Survival was underestimated in 20% and 12% and overestimated in 34% and 48% of subjects. Both physicians and nurses considered metastases, comorbidities, dyspnea, disability, tumor site, neurological symptoms, and confusion very important in predicting patients' survival with nurses assigning more importance to intestinal symptoms and pain too. All these factors, with the addition of cough and/or bronchial secretions, were associated with physicians' greater accuracy. In the multivariable models, intestinal symptoms and confusion continued to be associated with greater predictive accuracy. No factors appreciably raised nurses' accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Some clinical symptoms rated as relevant by the hospice staff could be important for predicting survival. However, only intestinal symptoms and confusion significantly improved the accuracy of physicians' predictions, despite the high prevalence of overestimated survival.

Palliative surgical outcome score (PSOS) in patients treated palliatively with self-expanding metal stent (SEMS) for malignant incurable colorectal obstruction

AIM

The palliative surgical outcome score (PSOS) was proposed for evaluation of the effect of palliative surgical interventions. As a surrogate measure for successful symptom control, it is defined as the proportion of days outside the hospital of the remaining life time up to six months after a palliative intervention. In this study we evaluate the PSOS in patients treated palliatively with self-expanding metal stents (SEMSs) for incurable malignant colorectal obstruction.

METHODS

All eligible patients endoscopically treated with palliative intent with SEMSs were identified. Demographics and clinical characteristics, including complete follow-up, were recorded, and the PSOS was calculated. Non-parametric tests were used for comparisons, and survival was evaluated by univariable and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2013, 116 patients (median age 71.5 years; 53.4% women) were identified. Most obstructions were caused by primary colorectal cancers. Technical- and clinical success rates were 94.0% and 87.1%, respectively. Procedure-related complications occurred in 17 (14.7%) of the patients, and most were minor. A PSOS>70 (regarded as excellent palliation) was achieved in 79 (68.1%) patients. This goal was significantly more often achieved in patients who survived at least 6 months than in those with shorter survival (p < 0.001). No clinical variables at the time of the endoscopic palliative procedure could predict a PSOS>70. However, in patients who survived at least 6 months (n = 69), a PSOS>70 was independently associated with better survival in the multivariable Cox analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

PSOS could be used as a practical proxy or a pragmatic tool for the effectiveness of palliative interventions, when such interventions are compared. Clinical factors that could significantly add to the clinical decision-making and predict a PSOS>70 in an individual patient were not identified for this specific group of patients.

Predicting life expectancy with a long short-term memory recurrent neural network using electronic medical records

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy is one of the most important factors in end-of-life decision making. Good prognostication for example helps to determine the course of treatment and helps to anticipate the procurement of health care services and facilities, or more broadly: facilitates Advance Care Planning. Advance Care Planning improves the quality of the final phase of life by stimulating doctors to explore the preferences for end-of-life care with their patients, and people close to the patients. Physicians, however, tend to overestimate life expectancy, and miss the window of opportunity to initiate Advance Care Planning. This research tests the potential of using machine learning and natural language processing techniques for predicting life expectancy from electronic medical records.

METHODS

We approached the task of predicting life expectancy as a supervised machine learning task. We trained and tested a long short-term memory recurrent neural network on the medical records of deceased patients. We developed the model with a ten-fold cross-validation procedure, and evaluated its performance on a held-out set of test data. We compared the performance of a model which does not use text features (baseline model) to the performance of a model which uses features extracted from the free texts of the medical records (keyword model), and to doctors' performance on a similar task as described in scientific literature.

RESULTS

Both doctors and the baseline model were correct in 20% of the cases, taking a margin of 33% around the actual life expectancy as the target. The keyword model, in comparison, attained an accuracy of 29% with its prognoses. While doctors overestimated life expectancy in 63% of the incorrect prognoses, which harms anticipation to appropriate end-of-life care, the keyword model overestimated life expectancy in only 31% of the incorrect prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostication of life expectancy is difficult for humans. Our research shows that machine learning and natural language processing techniques offer a feasible and promising approach to predicting life expectancy. The research has potential for real-life applications, such as supporting timely recognition of the right moment to start Advance Care Planning.

Assessment and Management of Patients With Metastatic Spinal Cord Compression: A Multidisciplinary Review

Purpose

Metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC) can be a catastrophic manifestation of advanced cancer that causes immobilizing pain and significant neurologic impairment. Oncologists can protect their patients by having a high index of suspicion for MSCC when patients present with new or worsening back pain before motor, sensory, bowel, or bladder deficits develop. We provide an updated, evidence-based narrative review of the presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of MSCC.

Methods

This narrative review was conducted by searching MEDLINE and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for relevant literature on the presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of patients with MSCC. The article addresses the key elements of MSCC management germane to the medical oncologist, with special attention given to pain and symptom management, decision making with regard to surgery and radiation therapy, the importance of rehabilitative care, and the value of a multidisciplinary approach.

Results

Magnetic resonance imaging of the entire spine is recommended for the diagnosis of MSCC. Treatment includes glucocorticoid therapy, pain management, radiation therapy with or without surgery, and specialized rehabilitation. When formulating a treatment plan, clinicians should consider the patient’s care goals and psychosocial needs.

Conclusion

Prompt diagnosis and treatment of MSCC can reduce pain and prevent irreversible functional loss. Regular collaboration among multidisciplinary providers may streamline care and enhance achievement of treatment goals.

Symptomatic spinal metastasis: A systematic literature review of the preoperative prognostic factors for survival, neurological, functional and quality of life in surgically treated patients and methodological recommendations for prognostic studies

Purpose

While several clinical prediction rules (CPRs) of survival exist for patients with symptomatic spinal metastasis (SSM), these have variable prognostic ability and there is no recognized CPR for health related quality of life (HRQoL). We undertook a critical appraisal of the literature to identify key preoperative prognostic factors of clinical outcomes in patients with SSM who were treated surgically. The results of this study could be used to modify existing or develop new CPRs.

Methods

Seven electronic databases were searched (1990–2015), without language restriction, to identify studies that performed multivariate analysis of preoperative predictors of survival, neurological, functional and HRQoL outcomes in surgical patients with SSM. Individual studies were assessed for class of evidence. The strength of the overall body of evidence was evaluated using GRADE for each predictor.

Results

Among 4,818 unique citations, 17 were included; all were in English, rated Class III and focused on survival, revealing a total of 46 predictors. The strength of the overall body of evidence was very low for 39 and low for 7 predictors. Due to considerable heterogeneity in patient samples and prognostic factors investigated as well as several methodological issues, our results had a moderately high risk of bias and were difficult to interpret.

Conclusions

The quality of evidence for predictors of survival was, at best, low. We failed to identify studies that evaluated preoperative prognostic factors for neurological, functional, or HRQoL outcomes in surgical patients with SSM. We formulated methodological recommendations for prognostic studies to promote acquiring high-quality evidence to better estimate predictor effect sizes to improve patient education, surgical decision-making and development of CPRs.

A Systematic Review of Predictions of Survival in Palliative Care: How Accurate Are Clinicians and Who Are the Experts?

Background

Prognostic accuracy in palliative care is valued by patients, carers, and healthcare professionals. Previous reviews suggest clinicians are inaccurate at survival estimates, but have only reported the accuracy of estimates on patients with a cancer diagnosis.

Objectives

To examine the accuracy of clinicians’ estimates of survival and to determine if any clinical profession is better at doing so than another.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Trials. All databases were searched from the start of the database up to June 2015. Reference lists of eligible articles were also checked.

Eligibility Criteria

Inclusion criteria: patients over 18, palliative population and setting, quantifiable estimate based on real patients, full publication written in English. Exclusion criteria: if the estimate was following an intervention, such as surgery, or the patient was artificially ventilated or in intensive care.

Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods

A quality assessment was completed with the QUIPS tool. Data on the reported accuracy of estimates and information about the clinicians were extracted. Studies were grouped by type of estimate: categorical (the clinician had a predetermined list of outcomes to choose from), continuous (open-ended estimate), or probabilistic (likelihood of surviving a particular time frame).

Results

4,642 records were identified; 42 studies fully met the review criteria. Wide variation was shown with categorical estimates (range 23% to 78%) and continuous estimates ranged between an underestimate of 86 days to an overestimate of 93 days. The four papers which used probabilistic estimates tended to show greater accuracy (c-statistics of 0.74–0.78). Information available about the clinicians providing the estimates was limited. Overall, there was no clear “expert” subgroup of clinicians identified.

Limitations

High heterogeneity limited the analyses possible and prevented an overall accuracy being reported. Data were extracted using a standardised tool, by one reviewer, which could have introduced bias. Devising search terms for prognostic studies is challenging. Every attempt was made to devise search terms that were sufficiently sensitive to detect all prognostic studies; however, it remains possible that some studies were not identified.

Conclusion

Studies of prognostic accuracy in palliative care are heterogeneous, but the evidence suggests that clinicians’ predictions are frequently inaccurate. No sub-group of clinicians was consistently shown to be more accurate than any other.

Implications of Key Findings

Further research is needed to understand how clinical predictions are formulated and how their accuracy can be improved.

Palliative radiation therapy in patients with metastasized pancreatic cancer - description of a rare patient group

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PAC) patients experience a high rate of locoregional recurrences and distant metastasis finally leading to their demise even after curatively-intended multidisciplinary treatment approaches including surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. However, clinical reports on bone and brain metastases in PAC patients are extremely rare and thus timing and dose description are not well defined. Our work therefore summarizes a mono-institutional experience on the use of radiotherapy (RT) for PAC patients with metastatic disease with the aim of identifying overall survival and treatment response in this rarely reported patient group.

Method

Forty-four PAC patients with 66 metastatic lesions were treated with palliative radiotherapy (RT). Thirty-three patients (48 lesions), 7 patients (11 lesions) and 5 patients (7 lesions) with bone, liver and brain metastases analyzed respectively were analyzed; one patient had both bone and cerebral metastases and was treated for the lesions, thus including him in both subgroups. Indications for RT were pain, neurological impairment, risk of pathological fracture or imminent danger for development of any of these conditions in case of tumor progression. Median age was 64 years (range 38 to 78 years) and there were 27 male (61%) and 17 (39%) female patients. Analyses of overall survival (OS) and local control were performed. OS was calculated from the first day of RT.

Results

Median overall survival (mOS) of all patients after start of RT was 4.2 months. Survival rates after 1, 3 and 6 months were 79.3%, 55.3% and 30.3% respectively. Patients presenting with bone metastasis had a mOS of 3.1 months and after 1, 3 and 6 months, survival rates were 75.3%, 46.5% and 19.9% respectively. Symptomatic response to therapy was recorded in 85% of all evaluated patients with bone metastasis. Patients undergoing radiosurgery because of liver metastasis were locally controlled in all but one patient after a median follow-up of 8.3 months.

Conclusion

Overall survival of all patients with metastatic disease was considerably worse. A major goal for the future must be the selection of an appropriate RT treatment in terms of duration and technique for these PAC patients.

The accuracy of predicting survival in individual patients with cancer

OBJECT

Estimating survival time in cancer patients is crucial for clinicians, patients, families, and payers. To provide appropriate and cost-effective care, various data sources are used to provide rational, reliable, and reproducible estimates. The accuracy of such estimates is unknown.

METHODS

The authors prospectively estimated survival in 150 consecutive cancer patients (median age 62 years) with brain metastases undergoing radiosurgery. They recorded cancer type, number of brain metastases, neurological presentation, extracranial disease status, Karnofsky Performance Scale score, Recursive Partitioning Analysis class, prior whole-brain radiotherapy, and synchronous or metachronous presentation. Finally, the authors asked 18 medical, radiation, or surgical oncologists to predict survival from the time of treatment.

RESULTS

The actual median patient survival was 10.3 months (95% CI 6.4-14). The median physician-predicted survival was 9.7 months (neurosurgeons = 11.8 months, radiation oncologists = 11.0 months, and medical oncologist = 7.2 months). For patients who died before 10 months, both neurosurgeons and radiation oncologists generally predicted survivals that were more optimistic and medical oncologists that were less so, although no group could accurately predict survivors alive at 14 months. All physicians had individual patient survival predictions that were incorrect by as much as 12-18 months, and 14 of 18 physicians had individual predictions that were in error by more than 18 months. Of the 2700 predictions, 1226 (45%) were off by more than 6 months and 488 (18%) were off by more than 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Although crucial, predicting the survival of cancer patients is difficult. In this study all physicians were unable to accurately predict longer-term survivors. Despite valuable clinical data and predictive scoring techniques, brain and systemic management often led to patient survivals well beyond estimated survivals.

Preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate predicts overall mortality in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Assessment of overall health is a critical component in the evaluation of patients presenting with clinically localized prostate cancer. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and overall mortality. Therefore, the objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of baseline renal function on oncologic outcomes and overall survival following radical prostatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified 10,099 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at our institution from 1990 to 2004 with a preoperative serum creatinine available for analysis. eGFR was calculated by the chronic kidney disease-epidemiology formula (CKD-EPI) and reported as ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Patients were then classified according to their eGFR: <30, 30-59, 60-89, 90-119, and 120-150 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the impact of eGFR on postoperative outcomes.

RESULTS

At the time of surgery, 25 patients (0.1%) had an eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2), 2,398 (23.7%) between 30 and 60, 7,097 (70.3%) between 60 and 90, and 605 (6.0%) patients had an eGFR >90. eGFR was not associated with oncologic outcomes, including biochemical recurrence, systemic progression or cancer-specific survival (P > 0.05 for all). However, eGFR was strongly associated with all-cause mortality and non-prostate cancer death. On multivariate analysis, after controlling for age, BMI, prostate-specific antigen doubling time (PSA), Gleason score, and clinical stage, eGFR remains a statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of eGFR is an important metric in the overall evaluation of patient health and should be considered in combination with patient age and other medical comorbidities when selecting the initial treatment of prostate cancer. While prostate cancer-specific outcomes do not appear to be impacted by renal function, overall survival is decreased in those with lower and higher than normal eGFR.

Stent treatment of malignant gastric outlet obstruction: the effect on rate of gastric emptying, symptoms, and survival

BACKGROUND

Advanced pancreatic cancer and other malignancies located proximal to the small bowel might cause gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) resulting in nausea, vomiting, dehydration, and malnutrition. Self-expandable metal stents (SEMS) to a large extent have replaced surgical treatment, with gastro-entero-anastomosis as palliative treatment for GOO. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of duodenal stenting on the rate of gastric emptying, symptoms, and survival.

METHODS

Patients with endoscopically verified malignant obstruction of the proximal duodenum were included. Gastric emptying rate was measured prior to and within 1 week after stent placement using a meal containing (13)C-octanoic acid as a marker. Symptoms related to GOO were assessed by the patients before and 2 weeks after stent treatment and during the gastric emptying tests. All patients were followed up until death.

RESULTS

In the patients included (n = 17), all studied variables of gastric emptying improved significantly following treatment, and a reduction in self-reported obstructive symptoms was observed. There was no correlation between survival and the rate of gastric emptying before or after, or the change in the rate of emptying.

CONCLUSION

The present study demonstrated that treatment with SEMS results in improved gastric emptying in most patients with GOO and a corresponding reduction in self-reported obstruction symptoms. However, survival and emptying were not related. The present findings provide further evidence that treatment with stents is an effective palliative treatment in patients with GOO.