Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram to predict tumor recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Eur J Surg Oncol. 2019;45:776-781. [PMID: 30401507 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejso.2018.10.541]

P53 status combined with MRI findings for prognosis prediction of single hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECT

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrence in individuals suffering single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative hepatectomy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 189 patients with single HCC undergoing curative resection in our center were randomized into training and validation cohorts. P53 status was determined using immunohistochemistry. Clinical data, such as age, and gender were collected. MRI findings, such as tumor size, intratumoral arteries, the presence of peritumoral enhancement and intratumoral necrosis were also recorded. Nomograms were established based on the predictors selected in the training cohort, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to compare the predictive ability among single predictors and nomogram model. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the impact of each predictor and nomogram model on HCC recurrence. The results were validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that P53 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.009), and intratumoral artery (P = 0.026) were the independent risk factors for HCC recurrence. The nomogram model demonstrated favorable C-index of 0.740 (95 %CI:0.653-0.826) and 0.767 (95 %CI: 0.633-0.900) in the training and validation cohorts, and the areas under the curve was 0.740 and 0.752, which was better than the performance of P53 and MR factors alone. Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between observed actual outcomes and predicted values. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that nomogram model was powerful in discrimination and clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSIONS

The integrated nomogram combining P53 status and MRI findings can be a valuable prognostic tool for predicting postoperative recurrence of single HCC.

Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer as a novel predictor of early recurrence after resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) frequently recurs after radical resection, resulting in a poor prognosis. This study assessed the prognostic value of Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) for early recurrence (ER) in patients with HCC.

METHODS

Patients who underwent radical resection for HCC between 2015 and 2021. HCC recurrence within one year after curative resection was defined as ER.

RESULTS

The 150 patients were divided into two groups: non-ER (116, 77.3%) and ER (34, 22.7%). The ER group had a lower overall survival rate (p < 0.0001) and significantly higher levels of M2BPGi (1.06 vs. 2.74 COI, p < 0.0001) than the non-ER group. High M2BPGi levels (odds ratio [OR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-2.41, p < 0.0001) and a large tumor size (OR 1.31, 95% CI, 1.05-1.63; p = 0.0184) were identified as independent predictors of ER. M2BPGi was the best predictor of ER according to a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis (area under the ROC curve 0.82, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

M2BPGi can predict ER after surgery and is useful for risk stratification in patients with HCC.

Albumin-Bilirubin Grade as a Valuable Predictor of Recurrence and Prognosis in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Radiofrequency Ablation

Background/Objectives: Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is an important local treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of tumor recurrence after RFA and analyze predictors of tumor recurrence and survival in patients with HCC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed data from treatment-naïve patients with HCC who underwent RFA for HCC treatment between 2008 and 2017 at four tertiary hospitals in South Korea. Results: A total of 636 patients with HCC treated with RFA were enrolled in the study. The mean age was 66.3 ± 10.4 years, with 75.0% of patients being male. Most patients (96.7%) had underlying liver cirrhosis, and viral hepatitis (types B and C) accounted for most cases. The average maximum tumor size was 2.2 ± 0.9 cm, with 84.3% of tumors being single lesions. During the follow-up period, 331 patients experienced recurrence, with 95.5% of cases being intrahepatic and one-fifth occurring at the RFA site. Most patients underwent RFA or transarterial chemoembolization as subsequent therapy for recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and Child-Pugh class B status were independent factors associated with tumor recurrence. Only the ALBI grade was significantly associated with mortality. Additionally, the ALBI grade differentiated between recurrence-free survival and overall survival in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Conclusions: The ALBI grade was independently associated with tumor recurrence and prognosis in patients with HCC following RFA. This grading system can help clinicians identify high-risk patients, optimize treatment strategies, and enhance patient care.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence: Predictors and management

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the sixth most common cancer globally, is associated with high mortality rates and more than 830,000 annual deaths. Despite advances in the available management options including surgical resection and local ablative therapies, recurrence rates after the initial treatment exceed 50%, even among patients who have undergone curative-intent therapy. Moreover, postsurgical HCC recurrence occurs in about 70% of cases five years postoperatively. The management of recurrent HCC remains undefined. This review discusses different predictors for HCC recurrence after each treatment modality and different approaches available to stratify these patients. More specific guidelines for managing HCC recurrence and strict surveillance protocols for such recurrence after initial HCC management are needed.

Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Including Body Composition Parameters for Predicting Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Body composition, including adipose and muscle tissues, evaluated by computer tomography is correlated with the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, its relationship with early recurrence (ER) remains unclear. This study aimed at establishing and validating a nomogram based on body composition and clinicopathological indices to predict ER of HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred ninety-five patients from institution A formed the training cohort and internal validation cohort, and 50 patients from institution B formed the external validation cohort. Independent predictors of ER were identified using LASSO and Cox regression analyses. The performance of nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

After data screening, the nomogram was constructed using eight independent predictors of ER, including the tumor size, alpha fetoprotein, body mass index, Edmondson Steiner grade, visceral adipose tissue radiodensity, intermuscular adipose tissue index, intramuscular adipose tissue content, and skeletal muscle area. The calibration curve exhibited excellent concordances, with C-indices of 0.808 (95%CI: 0.771-0.860), 0.802 (95%CI: 0.747-0.942), and 0.804 (95%CI: 0.701-0.861) in training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. In addition, compared to conventional staging systems and pure clinical model, the nomogram exhibited a higher AUC and wider range of threshold probabilities in DCA, which indicated better discriminative ability and greater clinical benefit. Finally, patients with nomogram scores of <183.07, 183.07-243.09, and >243.09 were considered to have low, moderate, and high risks of ER, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram exhibits excellent ER predictive ability for patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy.

Consensus on the tertiary prevention of primary liver cancer

To effectively prevent recurrence, improve the prognosis and increase the survival rate of primary liver cancer (PLC) patients with radical cure, the Chinese Society of Hepatology, Chinese Medical Association, invited clinical experts and methodologists to develop the Consensus on the Tertiary Prevention of Primary Liver Cancer, which was based on the clinical and scientific advances on the risk factors, histopathology, imaging finding, clinical manifestation, and prevention of recurrence of PLC. The purpose is to provide a current basis for the prevention, surveillance, early detection and diagnosis, and the effective measures of PLC recurrence.

Machine Learning-Based Development of Nomogram for Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Predict Acute Liver Function Deterioration After Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Acute liver function deterioration (ALFD) following drug-eluting beads transarterial chemotherapy embolism (DEB-TACE) was considered a risk factor for prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of ALFD after DEB-TACE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 288 patients with HCC from a single center were randomly divided into a training dataset (n = 201) and a validation dataset (n = 87). The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine risk factors for ALFD. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was applied to identify the key risk factors and fit a model. The performance, calibration, and clinical utility of the predictive nomogram were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis determined six risk factors with fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4) as the independent factor for the occurrence of ALFD after DEB-TACE. Gamma-glutamyltransferase, FIB-4, tumor extent, and portal vein invasion were integrated into the nomogram. In both the training and validation cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated promising discrimination with AUC of 0.762 and 0.878, respectively. The calibration curves and DCA revealed good calibration and clinical utility of the predictive nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram-based risk of ALFD stratification may improve clinical decision-making and surveillance protocols for patients with a high risk of ALFD after DEB-TACE.

Predicting post-resection recurrence by integrating imaging-based surrogates of distinct vascular patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background & Aims

Distinct vascular patterns, including microvascular invasion (MVI) and vessels encapsulating tumour clusters (VETC), are associated with poor outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Imaging surrogates of these vascular patterns potentially help to predict post-resection recurrence. Herein, a prognostic model integrating imaging-based surrogates of these distinct vascular patterns was developed to predict postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with HCC.

Methods

Clinico-radiological data of 1,285 patients with HCC from China undergoing surgical resection were retrospectively enrolled from seven medical centres between 2014 and 2020. A prognostic model using clinical data and imaging-based surrogates of MVI and VETC patterns was developed (n = 297) and externally validated (n = 373) to predict RFS. The surrogates (i.e. MVI and VETC scores) were individually built from preoperative computed tomography using two independent cohorts (n = 360 and 255). Whether the model's stratification was associated with postoperative recurrence following anatomic resection was also evaluated.

Results

The MVI and VETC scores demonstrated effective performance in their respective training and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.851-0.883 for MVI and 0.834-0.844 for VETC). The prognostic model incorporating serum alpha-foetoprotein, tumour multiplicity, MVI score, and VETC score achieved a C-index of 0.748-0.764 for the developing and external validation cohorts and generated three prognostically distinct strata. For patients at model-predicted medium risk, anatomic resection was associated with improved RFS (p <0.05). By contrast, anatomic resection had no impact on RFS in patients at model-predicted low or high risk (both p >0.05).

Conclusions

The proposed model integrating imaging-based surrogates of distinct vascular patterns enabled accurate prediction for RFS. It can potentially be used to identify HCC surgical candidates who may benefit from anatomic resection.

Impact and implications

MVI and VETC are distinct vascular patterns of HCC associated with aggressive biological behaviour and poor outcomes. Our multicentre study provided a model incorporating imaging-based surrogates of these patterns for preoperatively predicting RFS. The proposed model, which uses imaging detection to estimate the risk of MVI and VETC, offers an opportunity to help shed light on the association between tumour aggressiveness and prognosis and to support the selection of the appropriate type of surgical resection.

Baseline albumin-bilirubin score: a predictor for HBeAg clearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B after nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment

BACKGROUND

Serum biomarkers for predicting HBeAg clearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) virus infection during antiviral therapy remain lacking. This study aimed to investigate baseline albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score for assessing HBeAg clearance in HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs).

METHODS

Six hundred and ninety-nine HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with first-line NAs were retrospectively included. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare the possibility of HBeAg clearance and HBeAg seroconversion in different ALBI groups. Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with HBeAg clearance and HBeAg seroconversion.

RESULTS

Of the patients, 69.8% were male, with a median age of 36.0 years. 174 (24.9%) patients achieved HBeAg clearance after a median of 92.0 (interquartile range 48.0-134.0) weeks of antiviral treatment and 108 (15.5%) patients achieved HBeAg seroconversion. 74.0% and 26.0% of patients were classified as ALBI grade 1 and ALBI grade 2-3, respectively. ALBI grade 2-3 was identified as an independent predictor of HBeAg clearance (hazard ratio 1.570, 95% confidence interval 1.071-2.301, P  = 0.021). The cumulative incidence of HBeAg clearance and HBeAg seroconversion was significantly higher in ALBI grade 2-3 group than group of ALBI grade 1 ( P  < 0.001). Similar results were observed in different subgroups with different antiviral drugs, cirrhosis status, and ALT levels.

CONCLUSION

Baseline ALBI score may be a valuable indicator for predicting antiviral response in HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with NAs.

Comparison of quantitative volumetric analysis and linear measurement for predicting the survival of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer 0- and A stage hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation

PURPOSE

The prognostic role of the tumor volume in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0 and A stages remains unclear. This study aims to compare the volumetric measurement with linear measurement in early HCC burden profile and clarify the optimal cut-off value of the tumor volume.

METHODS

The consecutive patients diagnosed with HCC who underwent initial and curative-intent radiofrequency ablation (RFA) were included retrospectively. The segmentation was performed semi-automatically, and enhanced tumor volume (ETV) as well as total tumor volume (TTV) were obtained. The patients were categorized into high- and low-tumor burden groups according to various cutoff values derived from commonly used diameter values, X-tile software, and decision-tree analysis. The inter- and intra-reviewer agreements were measured using the intra-class correlation coefficient. Univariate and multivariate time-to-event Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the prognostic factors of overall survival.

RESULTS

A total of 73 patients with 81 lesions were analyzed in the whole cohort with a median follow-up of 31.0 (interquartile range: 16.0–36.3). In tumor segmentation, excellent consistency was observed in intra- and inter-reviewer assessments. There was a strong correlation between diameter-derived spherical volume and ETV as well as ETV and TTV. As opposed to all linear candidates and 4,188 mm3 (sphere equivalent to 2 cm in diameter), ETV >14,137 mm3 (sphere equivalent to 3 cm in diameter) or 23,000 mm3 (sphere equivalent to 3.5 cm in diameter) was identified as an independent risk factor of survival. Considering the value of hazard ratio and convenience to use, when ETV was at 23,000 mm3, it was regarded as the optimal volumetric cut-off value in differentiating survival risk.

CONCLUSION

The volumetric measurement outperforms linear measurement on tumor burden evaluation for survival stratification in patients at BCLC 0 and A stages HCC after RFA.

Comparison of Four Albumin-Based Liver Reserve Models (ALBI/EZ-ALBI/PALBI/PAL) against MELD for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

(1) Background: The severity of liver functional reserve plays an important role in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Noninvasive models such as the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade, platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) and platelet-albumin (PAL) are used to evaluate liver dysfunction. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of these four albumin-based models against MELD in HCC patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). (2) Methods: A total of 1038 treatment naïve HCC patients who received TACE as the primary treatment were enrolled. A multivariate Cox model was used to determine independent survival predictors. (3) Results: Multivariate analysis revealed that higher serum creatinine and α-fetoprotein level, vascular invasion, large tumor size, ALBI grades 2-3, EZ-ALBI grades 2-3, PALBI grades 2-3, PAL grades 2-3, but not the MELD score, were independent predictors associated with decreased survival in different Cox models. Among these models, the PALBI grade had the highest homogeneity and lowest corrected Akaike information criteria value, followed by EZ-ALBI, PAL, ALBI and, lastly, MELD. (4) Conclusions: All four albumin-based liver reserve models are better prognostic tools than MELD score in HCC patients undergoing TACE. Of these, the PALBI score is the best model to evaluate the liver reserve and should be considered a surrogate marker in these patients.

Prognostic Significance of Serum Albumin Level and Albumin-Based Mono- and Combination Biomarkers in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the predominant form of primary liver cancer. Although many surgical and nonsurgical therapeutic options have been established for treating HCC, the overall prognosis for HCC patients receiving different treatment modalities remains inadequate, which causes HCC to remain among the most life-threatening human cancers worldwide. Therefore, it is vitally important and urgently needed to develop valuable and independent prognostic biomarkers for the early prediction of poor prognosis in HCC patients, allowing more time for more timely and appropriate treatment to improve the survival of patients. As the most abundant protein in plasma, human serum albumin (ALB) is predominantly expressed by the liver and exhibits a wide variety of essential biological functions. It has been well recognized that serum ALB level is a significant independent biomarker for a broad spectrum of human diseases including cancer. Moreover, ALB has been commonly used as a potent biomaterial and therapeutic agent in clinical settings for the treatment of various human diseases. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence from the up-to-date published literature to underscore the prognostic significance of serum ALB level and various ALB-based mono- and combination biomarkers in the prediction of the prognosis of HCC patients after treatment with different surgical, locoregional, and systemic therapies.

Prognostic nomograms for HBV-related BCLC 0-a stage hepatocellular carcinoma incorporating aspartate aminotransferase to albumin ratio

BACKGROUND

Curative hepatectomy is currently the first-line treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the prognosis is still not optimistic. The prediction model for prognosis of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related BCLC 0-A stage HCC has not been well established. Therefore, we aimed to develop new nomograms to predict recurrence and survival in these patients.

METHODS

A total of 982 patients with HBV-related BCLC 0-A stage HCC who underwent curative hepatectomy at West China Hospital from February 2007 to February 2016 were retrospectively collected and randomly allocated to a training set and a validation set in a ratio of 4:1. Prognostic nomograms using data from the training set were developed using a Cox regression model and validated on the validation set.

RESULTS

We constructed nomograms based on independent factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) (tumor size, satellite, microvascular invasion, capsular invasion, differentiation and aspartate aminotransferase to albumin ratio (ASAR)) and overall survival (OS) (gender, tumor size, satellite, microvascular invasion, differentiation, lymphocyte count, and ASAR). Compared with conventional HCC staging systems and other nomograms reported by previous literature, our ASAR integrated nomograms predicted RFS and OS with the highest C-indexes (0.682 (95%CI: 0.646-0.709), 0.729 (95%CI: 0.691-0.766), respectively) and had well-fitted calibration curves in the training set. Concurrently, the nomograms also obtained consistent results in the validation set. DCA revealed that our nomograms provided the largest clinical net benefits.

CONCLUSION

We first constructed ASAR integrated nomograms to predict the prognosis of HBV-related BCLC 0-A stage HCC patients after curative hepatectomy with good performance.

A comprehensive preoperative predictive score for post-hepatectomy liver failure after hepatocellular carcinoma resection based on patient comorbidities, tumor burden, and liver function: the CTF score

BACKGROUND

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a dreaded complication following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a high mortality rate. We sought to develop a score based on preoperative factors to predict PHLF.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Factors associated with PHLF were identified and used to develop a preoperative comorbidity-tumor burden-liver function (CTF) predictive score.

RESULTS

Among 1785 patients, 106 (5.9%) experienced PHLF. On multivariate analysis, several factors were associated with PHLF including high Charlson comorbidity index (CCI ≥ 5) (OR 2.80, 95%CI, 1.08-7.26), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) (OR 1.99, 95%CI, 1.10-3.56), and tumor burden score (TBS) (OR 1.06, 95%CI, 1.02-1.11) (all p < 0.05). Using the beta-coefficients of these variables, a weighted predictive score was developed and made available online ( https://alaimolaura.shinyapps.io/PHLFriskCalculator/ ). The CTF score (c-index = 0.67) performed better than Child-Pugh score (CPS) (c-index = 0.53) or Barcelona clinic liver cancer system (BCLC) (c-index = 0.57) to predict PHLF. A high CTF score was also an independent adverse prognostic factor for survival (HR 1.61, 95%CI, 1.12-2.30) and recurrence (HR 1.36, 95%CI, 1.08-1.71) (both p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Roughly 1 in 20 patients experienced PHLF following resection of HCC. Patient (i.e., CCI), tumor (i.e., TBS), and liver function (i.e., ALBI) factors were associated with risk of PHLF. These preoperative factors were incorporated into a novel CTF tool that was made available online, which outperformed other previously proposed tools.

The ALBI score: From liver function in patients with HCC to a general measure of liver function

The (albumin-bilirubin) ‘ALBI’ score is an index of ‘liver function’ that was recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, irrespective of the degree of underlying liver fibrosis. Other measures of liver function, such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh score, which were introduced for specific clinical scenarios, have seen their use extended to other areas of hepatology. In the case of ALBI, its application has been increasingly extended to chronic liver disease in general and in some instances to non-liver diseases where it has proven remarkably accurate in terms of prognosis. With respect to chronic liver disease, numerous publications have shown that ALBI is highly prognostic in patients with all types and stages of chronic liver disease. Outside of liver disease, ALBI has been reported as being of prognostic value in conditions ranging from chronic heart failure to brain tumours. Whilst in several of these reports, explanations for the relationship of liver function to a clinical condition have been proposed, it has to be acknowledged that the specificity of ALBI for liver function has not been clearly demonstrated. Nonetheless, and similar to the MELD and Child-Pugh scores, the lack of any mechanistic basis for ALBI’s clinical utility does not preclude it from being clinically useful in certain situations. Why albumin and bilirubin levels, or a combination thereof, are prognostic in so many different diseases should be studied in the future.

Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) and Monocyte to Lymphocyte Ratio (MLR)-Based Nomogram Model to Predict Tumor Recurrence of AFP-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

In this study, we aimed to develop a novel liver function and inflammatory markers-based nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) for AFP-negative (<20 ng/mL) HCC patients after curative resection.

Patients and Methods

A total of 166 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were included at the Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital. A LASSO regression analysis was used for data dimensionality reduction and element selection. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors relevant to RFS. Finally, clinical nomogram prediction model for RFS of HCC was established. Nomogram performance was assessed via internal validation and calibration curve statistics. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve were used to validate the performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that ALBI grade (hazard ratio, [HR] = 2.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.391-4.949, P = 0.003), INR (HR = 2.605, 95% CI: 1.061-6.396, P = 0.037), MLR (HR = 1.769, 95% CI: 1.073-2.915, P = 0.025) and MVI (HR = 4.726, 95% CI: 2.365-9.444, P < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors of RFS. Nomogram with independent factors was established and achieved a better concordance index of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.672-0.834) for predicting RFS. The ROC found that the area under curve (AUC) was consistent with the C-index and the sensitivity was 85.4%. The risk score calculated by nomogram could divide AFP-negative HCC patients into high-, moderate- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram could augment net benefits and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities by the risk stratification than the AJCC T and BCLC stage in the prediction of AFP-negative HCC recurrence.

Conclusion

The ALBI grade- and MLR-based nomogram prognostic model for RFS showed high predictive accuracy in AFP-negative HCC patients after surgical resection.

Mac-2-Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer as a Novel Predictor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Eradication

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can recur even after achievement of a sustained virologic response (SVR). Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a newly identified biomarker correlated with liver fibrosis. This study aimed to clarify outcomes for patients with an SVR and to assess the prognostic value of M2BPGi.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study analyzed patients who underwent surgical resection for primary HCV-related HCC between 2008 and 2018. The study enrolled 81 patients whose M2BPGi could be evaluated after an SVR. The relationship between liver fibrosis-related factors and scores (including M2BPGi) and HCC recurrence, was evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 81 patients, 57 (70.4%) with HCV-related HCC obtained an SVR, whereas 24 patients (29.6%) did not. The patients with an SVR had a significantly more favorable recurrence-free survival (RFS) than the patients with no SVR (P < 0.0001, log-rank). Among the SVR groups, M2BPGi predicted a shorter RFS after hepatic resection with a higher degree of accuracy than other markers and scores in the SVR group. The high-M2BPGi group had worse liver function, RFS, and overall survival (OS) (P = 0.0014 and 0.0006, log-rank, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, high M2BPGi was significantly associated with worse RFS and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Even after achievement of an SVR, the risk of HCC recurrence cannot be eliminated. Measurement of M2BPGi after an SVR can be applied for risk stratification in the assessment of patients with HCV-related HCC.

Easy albumin-bilirubin score as a new prognostic predictor in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver functional reserve is a major prognostic determinant in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is an objective method to assess the severity of cirrhosis in this setting. However, calculation of the ALBI score is complex and difficult to access in clinical practice. Recently, the EZ (easy)-ALBI score was proposed as an alternative biomarker of liver injury. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of the EZ-ALBI score in HCC from early to advanced stages.

METHODS

A total of 3794 newly diagnosed HCC patients were prospectively enrolled and retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were determined by using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The EZ-ALBI score showed good correlation with the ALBI score (correlation coefficient, 0.965; p < 0.001). The correlation of the EZ-ALBI score was highly preserved in different Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classifications, treatment methods, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages (correlation coefficients, 0.90-0.97). In the Cox multivariate analysis, age >65 years, male sex, serum α-fetoprotein >20 ng/ml, large or multiple tumors, total tumor volume >100 cm³ , vascular invasion or distant metastasis, ascites, poor performance status, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and 3, and noncurative treatments were independently associated with increased mortality (all p < 0.05). Moreover, EZ-ALBI grade can stratify long-term survival in patients with different CTP class, treatment strategy, and BCLC stage.

CONCLUSIONS

The EZ-ALBI score is an easy and feasible method to evaluate liver functional reserve. As a new prognostic biomarker in HCC, the predictive power of the EZ-ALBI grade is independent across different cancer stages and treatments.

ALBI grade: Evidence for an improved model for liver functional estimation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually arises in the context of a chronically damaged liver. Liver functional estimation is of paramount importance in clinical decision making. The Child-Pugh score (CPS) can be used to categorise patients into 3 classes (A to C) based on the severity of liver functional impairment according to 5 parameters (albumin, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has emerged as an alternative, reproducible and objective measure of liver functional reserve in patients with HCC, defining worsening liver impairment across 3 grades (I to III). The ALBI score can identify different subgroups of patients with different prognoses across the diverse Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages and CP classes, making it an appealing clinical predictor. In patients treated with potentially curative approaches (resection, transplantation, radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation), ALBI grade has been shown to correlate with survival, tumour relapse, and post-hepatectomy liver failure. ALBI grade also predicts survival, toxicity and post-procedural liver failure in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolisation, radioembolisation, external beam radiotherapy as well as multi-kinase inhibitors (sorafenib, lenvatinib, cabozantinib, regorafenib) and immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. In this review, we summarise the body of evidence surrounding the role of ALBI grade as a biomarker capable of optimising patient selection and therapeutic sequencing in HCC.

Liver Transplantation in Malignancies: A Comprehensive and Systematic Review on Oncological Outcome

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (LT) is today's standard treatment for both end-stage liver disease and tumors; however, suitable grafts for LT are a scarce resource and outcome after LT is highly dependent on its underlying indication. Thus, patients must be carefully selected to optimize the number of life years gained per graft. This comprehensive and systematic review critically reflects the most recently published oncological outcome data after LT in malignancies based on the preoperative radiological findings.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted to detect preferentially most recent high-volume series or large database analysis on oncological outcomes after LT for both primary liver cancer and liver metastases between January 1, 2019, and November 14, 2020. A comprehensive review on the radiological assessment of the reviewed liver malignancies is included and its preoperative value for an outcome-driven indication reflected.

RESULTS

Twenty most recent high-volume or relevant studies including a total number of 2,521 patients were identified including 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, and 1 publications on oncological outcome after LT for hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocellular carcinoma, hepatic epitheloid hemangioendothelioma, hepatoblastoma, and both metastatic neuroendocrine tumors and colorectal cancer, respectively. The overall survival is comparable to patients without tumors if patients with malignancies are well selected for LT; however, this is highly dependent on tumor entity, tumor stage, and both neoadjuvant and concomitant treatment.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

LT is a promising option for better survival in patients with malignant liver tumors in selected patients; however, the indication must be critically discussed prior to LT in every single case in the context of organ shortage.

Prognosis after Curative Resection of Single Hepatocellular Carcinoma with A Focus on LI-RADS Targetoid Appearance on Preoperative Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic implications of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a focus on those with targetoid appearance based on the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS), as well as known microvascular invasion (MVI) features.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective study included 242 patients (190 male; mean age, 57.1 years) who underwent surgical resection of a single HCC (≤ 5 cm) as well as preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI between January 2012 and March 2015. LI-RADS category was assigned, and the LR-M category was further classified into two groups according to rim arterial-phase hyperenhancement (APHE). The imaging features associated with MVI were also assessed. The overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and their associated factors were evaluated.

Results

Among the 242 HCCs, 190 (78.5%), 25 (10.3%), and 27 (11.2%) were classified as LR-4/5, LR-M with rim APHE, and LR-M without rim APHE, respectively. LR-M with rim APHE (vs. LR-4/5; hazard ratio [HR] for OS, 5.48 [p = 0.002]; HR for RFS, 2.09 [p = 0.042]) and tumor size (per cm increase; HR for OS, 6.04 [p = 0.009]; HR for RFS, 1.77 [p = 0.014]) but not MVI imaging features (p > 0.05) were independent factors associated with OS and RFS. Compared to the 5-year OS and RFS rates in the LR-4/5 group (93.9% and 66.8%, respectively), the LR-M with rim APHE group had significantly lower rates (68.0% and 45.8%, respectively, both p < 0.05), while the LR-M without rim APHE group did not significantly differ in the survival rates (91.3% and 80.2%, respectively, both p > 0.05).

Conclusion

Further classification of LR-M according to the presence of rim APHE may help predict the postoperative prognosis of patients with a single HCC.

A prognostic nomogram based on LASSO Cox regression in patients with alpha-fetoprotein-negative hepatocellular carcinoma following non-surgical therapy

Background

Alpha-fetoprotein-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (AFP-NHCC) (< 8.78 ng/mL) have special clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis. The aim of this study was to apply a new method to establish and validate a new model for predicting the prognosis of patients with AFP-NHCC.

Methods

A total of 410 AFP-negative patients with clinical diagnosed with HCC following non-surgical therapy as a primary cohort; 148 patients with AFP-NHCC following non-surgical therapy as an independent validation cohort. In primary cohort, independent factors for overall survival (OS) by LASSO Cox regression were all contained into the nomogram1; by Forward Stepwise Cox regression were all contained into the nomogram2. Nomograms performance and discriminative power were assessed with concordance index (C-index) values, area under curve (AUC), Calibration curve and decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated in the validation cohort.

Results

The C-index of nomogram1was 0.708 (95%CI: 0.673–0.743), which was superior to nomogram2 (0.706) and traditional modes (0.606–0.629). The AUC of nomogram1 was 0.736 (95%CI: 0.690–0.778). In the validation cohort, the nomogram1 still gave good discrimination (C-index: 0.752, 95%CI: 0.691–0.813; AUC: 0.784, 95%CI: 0.709–0.847). The calibration curve for probability of OS showed good homogeneity between prediction by nomogram1 and actual observation. DCA demonstrated that nomogram1 was clinically useful. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram1: low-risk group, middle-risk group and high-risk group, respectively.

Conclusions

Novel nomogram based on LASSO Cox regression presents more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with AFP-NHCC following non-surgical therapy. This model could help patients with AFP-NHCC following non-surgical therapy facilitate a personalized prognostic evaluation.

Combination of albumin-bilirubin grade and clinically significant portal hypertension predicts the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection

There is little information concerning whether incorporating clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) into albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grading could improve its predictive capacity. In this study, we investigated the predictive ability of ALBI grade plus CSPH (ALBI-P score) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection. Data from 1,679 patients were retrospectively reviewed. The ALBI-P score was calculated from the ALBI grade and a point for CSPH (0 for absence of CSPH and 1 for presence of CSPH). Independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. Multivariate analysis suggested that the ALBI-P score was an independent risk factor for both postoperative recurrence (HR = 1.441, 95% CI = 1.328-1.563, P < 0.001) and mortality (HR = 1.332, 95% CI = 1.156-1.535, P < 0.001). Both the RFS and OS of patients with an ALBI-P score of 1 were significantly better than those of patients with ALBI-P scores of 2 and 3 (5-year RFS of 38.9%, 26.1%, and 14.7%, respectively, P < 0.001; 5-year OS of 52.7%, 42.6%, and 29.3%, P < 0.001). When the ALBI-P score and BCLC stage were combined, the ALBI-P-BCLC score showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict both postoperative recurrence and mortality compared with BCLC stage alone, BCLC stage combined with ALBI grade, or platelet-albumin-bilirubin grade. These results suggested incorporating CSPH into the ALBI grade could strengthen its prognostic power. The ALBI-P score may serve as a surrogate marker to predict HCC patient outcomes after liver resection.

Patterns, timing, and predictors of recurrence after laparoscopic liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: results from a high-volume HPB center

Background

Although long-term outcomes may be comparable between laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) and open liver resection (OLR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there has been little discussion regarding the patterns of recurrence after LLR.

Methods

Patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy between April 2015 and November 2018 were included in this study. The recurrence patterns were analyzed in detail. The recurrence outcomes following laparoscopic versus OLR for HCC were compared after 1:2 propensity score matching. Potential risk factors for recurrence were also assessed with Cox proportional risk models.

Results

Among 425 patients after LLR, 144 (33.8%) experienced recurrence at the last follow-up, with a median recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 10.0 months (range 1–58 months). The most frequent recurrence site was the liver (n = 99, 68.8%), followed by the surgical margin (n = 15, 10.4%) and distant metastases (n = 12, 8.3%). Liver recurrence with distant metastasis (n = 10, 6.9%) tended to occur early (median 8.0 months), while peritoneal recurrence (n = 8, 5.6%) occurred later (median 14.0 months). A total of 120 (83.3%) patients had recurrence within 2 years after LLR. No trocar site recurrence was observed in this study. The recurrence patterns, timing, and treatment did not show significant differences between the LLR and OLR. The independent risk factors for recurrence included ALBI grade, postoperative α-fetoprotein > 8 ng/ml, tumor size > 5 cm, surgical margin ≤ 1 cm, and multiple tumors. Patients with recurrence had 1- and 5-year overall survival rates of 81.1% and 60.7%, respectively, compared with rates of 95.8% and 92.9% for patients without recurrence (P < 0.000).

Conclusion

This study suggested that intrahepatic recurrence was still the most common recurrence pattern for HCC after LLR and that LLR did not increase the risk of trocar hole recurrence or implantation. Most cases of recurrence occurred within 2 years after LLR, suggesting that surveillance should be targeted to early recurrence.

Supplementary Information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00464-021-08390-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

High preoperative albumin-bilirubin score predicts poor survival in patients with newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prognostic value of the preoperative Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score in high-grade glioma (HGG) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study of 194 HGG patients was conducted. ROC analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of ALBI score. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors associated with progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The resulting prognostic models were externally validated by a demographic-matched cohort of 130 HGG patients.

RESULTS

Optimal cutoff value of ALBI score was -2.941. In training set, ALBI was correlated with age (P = 0.001), tumor location (P = 0.012) and adjuvant therapy (P = 0.016). Both PFS (8.27 vs. 18.40 months, P<0.001) and OS (13.93 vs. 27.57 months, P<0.001) were significantly worse in the ALBI-high group. Strikingly, patients in ALBI-low group had 56% decrease in the risk of tumor progression and 57% decrease in the risk of death relative to high ALBI. Multivariate analysis further identified ALBI score as an independent predictor for both PFS (HR=0.47, 95% CI 0.34, 0.66) and OS (HR=0.45, 95% CI 0.32, 0.63). The ALBI score remained independent prognostic value in the validation set for both PFS (P = 0.01) and OS (P = 0.007). Patients with low ALBI score had better PFS and OS in all subgroups by tumor grade and treatment modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

The preoperative ALBI score is a noninvasive and valuable prognostic marker for HGG patients.

Nomogram Based on Systemic Immune Inflammation Index and Prognostic Nutrition Index Predicts Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgery

Background

Surgery is a potential cure for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its postoperative recurrence rate is high, its prognosis is poor, and reliable predictive indicators are lacking. This study was conducted to develop a simple, practical, and effective predictive model.

Materials and Methods

Preoperative clinical and postoperative pathological data on patients with HCC undergoing partial hepatectomies at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2010 to December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed, and a nomogram was constructed. The model performance was evaluated using C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic curves, and calibration curves. The results were verified from validation cohort data collected at the same center from January 2016 to January 2017 and compared with the traditional staging systems.

Results

Three hundred three patients were enrolled in this study: 238 in the training cohort and 65 in the validation cohort. From the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses in the training cohort, six independent risk factors, i.e., age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), tumor size, satellite nodules, systemic immune inflammation index (SII), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), were filtered and included in the nomogram. The C-index was 0.701 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.654–0.748] in the training cohort and 0.705 (95% CI: 0.619–0.791) in the validation cohort. The areas under the curve for the 1- and 3-year recurrence-free survival were 0.706 and 0.716 in the training cohort and 0.686 and 0.743 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement. Compared with traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition (AJCC8th) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging systems, our nomogram showed better predictive ability.

Conclusion

Our nomogram is simple, practical, and reliable. According to our nomogram, predicting the risk of recurrence and stratifying HCC patient management will yield the greatest survival benefit for patients.

A clinical trial with valproic acid and hydralazine in combination with gemcitabine and cisplatin followed by doxorubicin and dacarbazine for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Survival benefit from chemotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was limited till now. New chemoregimens with cytotoxicity modulators were explored to improve efficacy. Chemotherapy modulated with valproic acid (VA) as a deacetylation inhibitor of histone and DNA damage response proteins, and hydralazine (HZ) as a DNA hypomethylating agent, hypothetically suppressing DNA repair, were used in phase II trial here for advanced HCC.

METHODS

Between July 2008 and March 2016, patients with chemo-naive advanced HCC, regardless of previous sorafenib treatment, not amenable to local therapy and with Child Pugh score ≤7, were treated with VA (200 mg thrice per day) and HZ (12.5 mg twice per day) in conjunction with gemcitabine and cisplatin (GCGG): gemcitabine (1000 mg/m² , D1; 800 mg/m² D8, 15) and cisplatin (70 mg/m² , D1) every 28 days till disease progression and then with Dox-DTIC: doxorubicin (45 mg/m² ) and dacarbazine (450 mg/m² ) every 28 days. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS); the secondary endpoints were safety, progression-free survival (PFS) and response rate (RR).

RESULTS

Thirty-seven patients with 16 sorafenib-experienced, underwent GCGG treatment, and 30 of them underwent the following Dox-DTIC treatment. The median OS was 14.6 months (95% confidence interval: 6.0-23.1). The median PFSs for patients treated with VA- and HZ-combined GCGG and Dox-DTIC were 3.7 and 4.2 months, respectively; the RRs were 10/37 (27.0%) and 7/30 (23.3%); and grade 3/4 neutropenia were 54% and 51%. However, there were no chemotherapy-related deaths.

CONCLUSION

VA- and HZ-combined sequential chemotherapy was effective in advanced HCC with manageable toxicities.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and albumin bilirubin grade in hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cause of cancer related death globally. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin bilirubin (ALBI) grade are emerging prognostic indicators in HCC.

AIM

To study published literature of NLR and ALBI over the last five years, and to validate NLR and ALBI locally in our centre as indicators of HCC survival.

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature on PubMed of NLR and ALBI in HCC over the last five years. The search followed the guidelines of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Additionally, we also investigated HCC cases between December 2013 and December 2018 in our centre.

RESULTS

There were 54 studies describing the relation between HCC and NLR and 95 studies describing the relation between HCC and ALBI grade over the last five years. Our local cohort of patients showed NLR to have a significant negative relationship to survival (P = 0.011). There was also significant inverse relationship between the size of the largest HCC nodule and survival (P = 0.009). Median survival with alpha fetoprotein (AFP) < 10 KU/L was 20 mo and with AFP > 10 KU/L was 5 mo. We found that AFP was inversely related to survival, this relationship was not statically significant (P = 0.132). Mean survival for ALBI grade 1 was 37.7 mo, ALBI grade 2 was 13.4 months and ALBI grade 3 was 4.5 mo. ALBI grades performed better than Child Turcotte Pugh score in detecting death from HCC.

CONCLUSION

NLR and ALBI grade in HCC predict survival better than the conventional alpha fetoprotein. ALBI grade performs better than Child Turcotte Pugh score. These markers are done as part of routine clinical care and in cases of normal alpha fetoprotein, these markers could give a better understanding of the patient disease progression. NLR and ALBI grade could have a role in modified easier to learn staging and prognostic systems for HCC.

Prediction Model of HBsAg Seroclearance in Patients with Chronic HBV Infection

Background

Prediction of HBsAg seroclearance, defined as the loss of circulating HBsAg with or without development of antibodies for HBsAg in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), is highly difficult and challenging due to its low incidence. This study is aimed at developing and validating a nomogram for prediction of HBsAg loss in CHB patients.

Methods

We analyzed a total of 1398 patients with CHB. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 918), and one-third were assigned to the validation set (n = 480). Univariate and multivariate analysis by Cox regression analysis was performed using the training set, and the nomogram was constructed. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the training set and validation set.

Results

On multivariate analysis of the training set, independent factors for HBsAg loss including BMI, HBeAg status, HBsAg titer (quantitative HBsAg), and baseline hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level were incorporated into the nomogram. The HBsAg seroclearance calibration curve showed an optimal agreement between predictions by the nomogram and actual observation. The concordance index (C-index) of nomogram was 0.913, with confirmation in the validation set where the C-index was 0.886.

Conclusions

We established and validated a novel nomogram that can individually predict HBsAg seroclearance and non-seroclearance for CHB patients, which is clinically unprecedented. This practical prognostic model may help clinicians in decision-making and design of clinical studies.

Prognostic role of preoperative albumin-bilirubin grade on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Recent studies have reported albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade affected the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To more precisely evaluate the relationship among the ALBI grade and the prognosis of patients with HCC after liver resection. We systematically retrieved articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and CNKI. The prognostic value of ALBI grade on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients with HCC after liver resection was evaluated by pooled hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI).Through multiple databases search, we enrolled 20 high-quality studies with 11365 patients, regarding the association between the ALBI grade and the prognosis of patients with HCC after liver resection. Our results showed that higher ALBI grade is associated with poored OS (HR, 1.64; 95% CI: 1.51-1.78; P < 0.001; I = 24.9%) and RFS (HR, 1.42; 95% CI: 1.26-1.59; P < 0.001; I = 0). Moreover, subgroup analysis showed the significant correlation between ALBI grade and poor long-term survival was not altered in different geographical areas, sample sizes, follow-up duration, and quality scores. The ALBI grade may be as effective predictive biomarkers for prognosis in patients with HCC after liver resection.

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting mortality after resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC) has a poor prognosis and high short-term mortality rate, even after resection. Thus, early diagnosis in PHCC cases can help improve quality of life via personalized management strategies.

Results: The risk score system (RSS) were classified as low risk (<5 points), medium risk (5–10 points), or high risk (>10 points). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.80 in the training cohort and 0.69 in the validation cohort, which indicated satisfactory prognostic performance. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P>0.05) revealed consistent performance in both groups. The concordance index (C-index: 0.663, 95% CI: 0.618–0.708) revealed excellent discrimination and good calibration in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: This simple RSS, which is based on clinical and laboratory data from patients undergoing resection of PHCC, might allow clinicians and medical staff to better manage PHCC.

Materials and Methods: A total of 672 PHCC cases were retrospectively obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2007 and February 2015. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify independent predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test were used to examine the relationships between the prognostic factors and overall mortality.

Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Early and Late Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy

Aim

Hepatectomy is the main curative method for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. Unfortunately, high recurrence rate after hepatectomy poses negative impact on the prognosis of patients. This study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms to predict early recurrence (ER) and late recurrence (LR) of HCC after curative hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Total of 318 HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy from January 2012 to January 2018 were retrospectively recruited. Potential risk factors that were significant for predicting ER and LR in univariate analysis were selected for multivariate survival model analysis using the backward stepwise method. Risk factors identified in multivariate analysis were used to develop nomograms to predict ER and LR. The nomogram was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap samples from 75% of the original data.

Results

Among 318 patients, 164 showed postoperative recurrence, of which 140 and 24 had ER (≤2 years) and LR (>2 years), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, Hong Kong Liver Cancer Stage, albumin-bilirubin, METAVIR fibrosis grade, and microvascular invasion were risk factors of ER for HCC after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for ER in the development set (D-set) was 0.888 while that in the validation set (V-set) was 0.812. Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and glypican-3 (+) were risk factors for LR in HCC patients after curative hepatectomy. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR predictive nomogram that integrated all independent predictors was 0.831. The AUC of the ROC curve for LR in the D-set was 0.833, while that for LR in the V-set was 0.733. The C-index and AUC of ROC for the proposed nomograms were more satisfactory than three conventional HCC staging systems used in this study.

Conclusion

We developed novel nomograms to predict ER and LR of HCC patients after curative hepatectomy for clinical use to individualize follow-up and therapeutic strategies.

Albumin-bilirubin score is associated with response to pegylated interferon and nucleos(t)ide analogues in chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Recently, the role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has not been well-understood. We aimed to investigate the association of ALBI score with natural history of chronic HBV infection and treatment response of CHB patients.

METHODS

The ALBI score in a cohort of 849 individuals including 721 chronic HBV-infected patients naïve to anti-HBV treatment in different phases and 128 healthy controls were estimated. Additionally, the dynamic changes of ALBI score of 243 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive CHB patients treated with pegylated interferon-alpha (PEG-IFN-α) or nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) were tested for 72 weeks.

RESULTS

ALBI score differed among phases, with the highest score in HBeAg-positive CHB patients, followed by HBeAg-negative CHB patients, HBeAg-positive chronic HBV infection, and HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection. Besides, CHB patients harbouring high baseline ALBI score exhibited a relatively stronger therapeutic response to PEG-IFN-α or NAs. Moreover, the rate of HBeAg and HBsAg loss in patients with ALBI grade 2 was persistently higher than that in patients with ALBI grade 1 throughout the course of treatment. Furthermore, ALBI score was an independent predictor of sustained response achievement. The combined use of ALBI score, HBeAg and ALT could enhance the predictive value of treatment response.

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI score differed significantly across the natural course of chronic HBV infection and was correlated with PEG-IFN-α and NAs treatment response in HBeAg-positive CHB patients, which suggested that ALBI score could be useful as an auxiliary clinical factor to determine the initiation of therapy and predict stronger antiviral treatment response.

The role of preoperative albumin-bilirubin grade for oncological risk stratification in liver transplant patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was shown to correlate with liver function and tumor recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of ALBI grade in liver transplantation (LT) patients with HCC.

METHODS

Pre-LT available independent predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and microvascular tumor invasion (MVI) were determined in 123 patients with HCC.

RESULTS

Posttransplant HCC recurrence rates were 10.5%, 15.9%, and 68.2% in ALBI grade 1, 2, and 3, respectively (P < .001). Along with serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, ALBI grades 1 or 2 was identified as an independent predictor of RFS (hazard ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.577-7.842; P = .002). Furthermore, ALBI grade 3 proved to be the strongest indicator of MVI (odds ratio, 11.59; 95% CI, 3.412-39.381; P < .001). A novel oncological risk score-based on AFP, CRP, and ALBI grade provided the best discriminative capacity (c-statistic 0.806) in selecting liver recipients with low oncological risk profile.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative ALBI grade seems to be valuable for refinement of oncological risk stratification at LT for HCC.

Prognostic value of the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio on urologic outcomes in patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma following curative nephrectomy

Background: Few studies focused on the relationship between the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) and the urologic outcomes in patients with non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) following curative surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of preoperative AAPR in non-metastatic RCC patients. Methods: The prognostic value of AAPR was evaluated in a primary cohort with 419 non-metastatic RCC patients following curative radical or partial nephrectomy and then further validated in an independent cohort consisting of 204 patients. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors, and its predictive value was assessed. Results: Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with low AAPR levels were significantly associated with worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) compared with patients with high AAPR levels both in two cohorts. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that low AAPR was an independent risk factor for OS (HR = 2.745; 95%CI, 1.266-5.953; P = 0.011) and CSS (HR = 3.042; 95%CI, 1.278-7.243; P = 0.012). Moreover, subgroup analysis (Fuhrman grade G1+G2 and Fuhrman grade G3+G4; T1+T2 stage and T3+T4 stage) revealed that low AAPR was also related to worse urological outcomes. Although no significant differences between patients with low AAPR and patients with high AAPR can be observed with regard to CSS under Fuhrman grade G1+G2 (P=0.058) and T1+T2 stage (P=0.318), there was a worse CSS trend in low AAPR patients. The established nomograms for OS and CSS were well calibrated and had moderate discriminative ability (concordance index: 0.821 and 0.839, respectively) Conclusions: Preoperative AAPR might be an independent prognostic factor in patients with non-metastatic RCC. The ratio should be applied in RCC patients for risk stratification and clinical decision-making.

Preoperative albumin-bilirubin grade combined with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet count ratio index predict outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria after liver resection

There is little information concerning the prognostic significance of combined albumin- bilirubin (ALBI) grade and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet count ratio index (APRI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, we performed this study to assess the prognostic utility of combining ALBI and APRI (ALBI-APRI score) for predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC within Milan criteria after liver resection. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were involved in this study. Patients with a high APRI score were allocated a score of 1, whereas patients with a low APRI score were allocated a score of 0. The ALBI-APRI score is the summation of APRI score and ALBI grade. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the predictive accuracy of different models. During the study period, 132 patients experienced recurrence, and 52 patients died. Multivariate analysis revealed the ALBI-APRI score (HR = 1.753, 95% CI = 1.293-2.377, p < 0.001), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI, HR = 2.693, 95%CI = 1.832-3.960, p < 0.001) and multiple tumors (HR = 1.973, 95% CI = 1.300-2.995, p = 0.001) were all associated with recurrence. In addition, blood transfusion (HR = 3.113, 95% CI = 1.677-5.778, p < 0.001), high preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP, HR = 2.272, 95% CI = 1.298-3.976, p = 0.004), ALBI-APRI score (HR = 2.046, 95% CI = 1.237-3.382, p = 0.005) and presence of MVI (HR = 4.524, 95% CI = 2.514-8.140, p < 0.001) were correlated with postoperative mortality. The AUCs of ALBI-APRI score were significantly higher than either ALBI or APRI alone for predicting both postoperative recurrence and mortality. ALBI-APRI score may be a predictor for the prognosis of patients with HCC within Milan criteria following liver resection. A more well-designed and large-scale study are warranted to prove our findings.