Defining and predicting early recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Development and validation of a prediction model for early recurrence in upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with radical nephroureterectomy

BACKGROUND

Most cases of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) exhibit recurrence within the first year following surgery. The time from surgery to recurrence significantly impacts cancer-specific survival. In this study, we analyzed patients with localized UTUC (pTis-3N0/xcM0) who experienced postoperative recurrence to identify an appropriate early recurrence time point and the associated risk factors.

METHODS

From July 1988 to October 2022, we retrospectively analyzed 3435 localized UTUC patients after undergoing radical nephroureterectomy using Taiwan's UTUC Collaboration Group Database. Early recurrence time point was defined according to oncologic outcome. Variables including clinical and pathological characteristics were assessed in relation to early recurrence. A prediction model was constructed by factors associated with early recurrence and externally validated.

RESULTS

Early recurrence time point in localized UTUC was determined at 9 months post-surgery, with patients experiencing early recurrence exhibiting worse overall and cancer specific survival. Diabetes mellitus, multifocality, lympho-vascular invasion, tumor necrosis and pathologic T stage were independent factors associated with early recurrence. The predictive model for early recurrence achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.82-0.86). External validation demonstrated that the model exhibited good discrimination (AUC: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.73-0.79), calibration (Brier score: 0.08) and clinical utility in a distinct cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified the optimal time point for early recurrence and its associated risk factors. A prediction model for early recurrence was developed based on these factors and validated externally, demonstrating good generalizability. This clinical tool can facilitate early identification of high-risk patients, enabling targeted surveillance and timely intervention. Future studies should explore effective treatment strategies for preventing early recurrence.

Definition and risk factors for early recurrence in patients with laryngeal cancer after initial surgery

To determine an optimal cut-off value for distinguishing early and late recurrence in patients with laryngeal cancer after initial surgery and to evaluate the risk factors for early recurrence. This retrospective study included 328 patients with laryngeal cancer who underwent initial resection in our hospital from January 2014 to April 2018. A minimum P-value approach was used to determine the optimal cut-off value to divide patients into early and late recurrence groups. The clinicopathological characteristics were compared between the two groups. The risk factors for early recurrence were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. The optimal cut-off value to identify between early recurrence (n = 51, 50.5%) and late recurrence (n = 50, 49.5%) was 17 months (p < 1e-17). The overall survival of the late recurrence group (48.36 ± 16.02 months) was longer than the early recurrence group (32.61 ± 19.65 months) significantly (p < 0.001). Lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.038), patients without adjuvant radiotherapy (p = 0.043), advanced tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) stage (p = 0.035), and positive surgical margins (p = 0.045) were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The best cut-off value to identify early recurrence after initial surgery for laryngeal cancer was 17 months. Intensive follow-up and adjuvant radiotherapy may be beneficial for patients with risk factors for early recurrence.

Definition and Predictors of Early Recurrence in Neoadjuvantly Treated Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma: a Dual-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

ABSTARCT

BACKGROUND: Early recurrence after esophagectomy is often used as a surrogate for aggressive tumor biology and treatment failure. However, there is no standardized definition of early recurrence, and predictors for early recurrence are unknown. Therefore, we aimed to define an evidence-based cutoff to discriminate early and late recurrence and assess the influence of neoadjuvant treatment modalities for patients with esophageal or gastroesophageal-junction adenocarcinoma (EAC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This dual-center retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent esophagectomy for stage II-III EAC after neoadjuvant treatment with chemotherapy using 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel (FLOT) or radiochemotherapy according to the Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer followed by Surgery Study (CROSS) protocol from 2012 to 2022. The optimal cutoff for early versus late recurrence was calculated by using the most significant difference in survival after recurrence (SAR). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with early recurrence.

RESULTS

Of 334 included patients, 160 (47.9%) were diagnosed with recurrence. Most patients had systemic (60.5%) or multiple sites of recurrence (21.1%), whereas local-only recurrence (9.2%) and carcinomatosis (9.2%) were rare. The optimal interval between surgery and recurrence for distinguishing early and late recurrence was 18 months (median SAR: 9.1 versus 17.8 months, p = 0.039) with only 24% of recurrences diagnosed after the calculated cutoff. Advanced pathologic tumor infiltration (ypT3-4, p = 0.006), nodal positivity (p = 0.013), poor treatment response (>10% residual tumor, p = 0.015), and no adjuvant treatment (p = 0.048) predicted early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Early recurrence can be defined as recurrent disease within 18 months. Hallmarks for early recurrence are poor response to neoadjuvant therapy with persisting advanced disease. In those patients, adjuvant therapy and closer follow-up should be considered.

Identifying timing and risk factors for early recurrence of resectable rectal cancer: A single center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is a common malignancy and various methods have been introduced to decrease the possibility of recurrence. Early recurrence (ER) is related to worse prognosis. To date, few observational studies have reported on the analysis of rectal cancer. Hence, we reported on the timing and risk factors for the ER of resectable rectal cancer at our institute.

AIM

To analyze a cohort of patients with local and/or distant recurrence following the radical resection of the primary tumor.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected from the institutional database from March 2011 to January 2021. Clinicopathological data at diagnosis, perioperative and postoperative data, and first recurrence were collected and analyzed. ER was defined via receiver operating characteristic curve. Prognostic factors were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling.

RESULTS

We included 131 patients. The optimal cut off value of recurrence-free survival (RFS) to differentiate between ER (n = 55, 41.9%) and late recurrence (LR) (n = 76, 58.1%) was 8 mo. The median post-recurrence survival (PRS) of ER and LR was 1.4 mo and 2.9 mo, respectively (P = 0.008) but PRS was not strongly associated with RFS (R² = 0.04). Risk factors included age ≥ 70 years [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.752, P = 0.047], preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (HR = 3.683, P < 0.001), colostomy creation (HR = 2.221, P = 0.036), and length of stay > 9 d (HR = 0.441, P = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

RFS of 8 mo was the optimal cut-off value. Although ER was not associated with PRS, it was still related to prognosis; thus, intense surveillance is recommended.

Textbook anastomotic success in patients with low rectal cancer treated by intersphincteric resection: reappraising surgical, oncological, and functional outcomes

Previous studies on successful anastomosis after intersphincteric resection (ISR) for low rectal cancer (LRC) primarily focused on anastomotic complications rather than functional outcomes. Here, we improved the anastomotic success criteria by considering surgical, oncological, and functional outcomes and proposed a new composite outcome, "textbook anastomotic success" (TASS). This retrospective single-center study included patients with LRC treated with ISR from January 2014 to April 2020. TASS was defined as (1) no anastomotic complications occurring after ISR; (2) ileostomy was closed and there was no severe intestinal dysfunction 2 years after ISR; and (3) no local recurrence within 2 years of surgery. TASS was achieved upon meeting all indicators. We analyzed 259 patients with LRC, with 125 (48.3%) achieving TASS. Multivariate analysis showed that male sex (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.27-0.81; p = 0.007), hypertension (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.24-0.97; p = 0.041), ASA score ≥ 3 (OR 0.28; 95% CI 0.10-0.81; p = 0.018), pre-treatment major low anterior resection syndrome (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.15-0.94; p = 0.037), and preoperative neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (OR 0.41; 95% CI 0.22-0.77; p = 0.006) were independent risk factors for not achieving TASS. Conversely, transverse coloplasty pouch (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.07-4.25; p = 0.032) and higher anastomosis level (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.05-2.30; p = 0.026) were independent protective factors for achieving TASS. The nomogram constructed to evaluate the probability of achieving TASS demonstrated good accuracy in the dataset (area under curve, 0.737). TASS provides a comprehensive quality assessment for ISR in patients with LRC. The nomogram predicting TASS may assist surgeons in decision-making for managing LRC.

Post recurrence survival in early versus late period and its prognostic factors in rectal cancer patients

To identify factors associated with post-recurrence survival (PRS), we examined our institutional recurrence patterns following definitive resection for rectal cancer. We reviewed all patients with rectal cancer diagnosed at three hospitals in the east of Iran from 2011 to 2020. The optimal cut-off value was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine early recurrence. The effect of recurrence time was evaluated on PRS. 326 eligible patients with a mean ± SD age of 56 ± 12.8 years were included in this study. In a median (IQR: Inter-quartile range) follow-up time of 76 (62.2) months, 106 (32.5%) patients experienced at least any recurrence (locoregional or distant metastasis) following primary resection. The median (IQR) time from initial surgery to recurrence was 29.5 (31.2) months. Based on ROC analysis, early recurrence was specified at ≤ 29 months. However, for the patients who experienced only locoregional recurrence, 33 months was the cut-off to define early recurrence. Recurrence time and recurrence management were both significant variables on PRS. Moreover, TNM staging was significantly associated with early recurrence (P = 0.003). In this research, recurrence time, recurrence management and TNM staging were found to be correlated with PRS.

Early recurrence after complete mesocolic excision for right-sided colon cancer with D3 lymphadenectomy: pattern, risk factors, prognostic impact, and individualized follow-up

The definition of early recurrence (ER) for right-sided colon cancer patients after complete mesocolic excision (CME) with D3 lymphadenectomy remains unclear. This study aimed to define the optimal time for ER and clarify risk factors for ER and post-recurrence survival (PRS). A total of 578 right-sided colon cancer patients who underwent CME with D3 lymphadenectomy were included. The minimum p value method was used to evaluate theme optimal time of recurrence-free survival to discriminate between ER and late recurrence (LR). Risk factors for ER were determined by a logistics regression model. The PRS was compared between ER and LR. The optimal time to define ER was 15 months (P = 1.8697E-7). 93 patients developed tumor recurrence, 46 patients had ER (≤15 months) and 47 patients had LR (>15 months). Preoperative serum CA19-9 > 37 U/mL (OR = 3.185, P = 0.001), pathological N+ stage (OR = 3.042, P = 0.027), and lymphovascular invasion (OR = 2.182, P = 0.027) were identified as independent risk factors associated with ER. Age > 75 years (HR = 1.828, P = 0.040), pathological N2 stage (HR = 1.850, P = 0.009), multiple sites of recurrence (HR = 1.680, P = 0.024), and time to recurrence ≤15 months (HR = 2.018, P = 0.043) were significantly associated with worse PRS in patients with recurrence. 15 months was the optimal time to distinguish ER and LR. ER was associated with a poor PRS. Elevated preoperative serum CA19-9 level, pathological N+ stage, and lymphovascular invasion were significantly predictive of ER.

Development and validation of a novel radiomics nomogram for prediction of early recurrence in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Early recurrence (ER) is a significant concern following curative resection of advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) and is linked to poor long-term survival. Reliable prediction of ER is challenging, necessitating the development of a novel radiomics-based nomogram for CRC patients.

METHODS

We enrolled 405 patients, with 298 in the training set and 107 in the external test set. Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative venous-phase computed tomography (CT) images. A radiomics signature was created using univariate logistic regression analyses and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm. Clinical factors were integrated into the analyses to develop a comprehensive predictive tool in a multivariate logistic regression model, resulting in a radiomics nomogram. Subsequently, the calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were evaluated.

RESULTS

The radiomics signature, consisting of four selected CT features, was significantly associated with ER in both the training and test datasets (P < 0.05). Independent predictors of ER included TNM stage, carcinoembryonic antigen level and differentiation grade were identified. The radiomics nomogram, incorporating all these predictors, exhibited good predictive ability in both the training set with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.90) and the test set with an AUC of 0.85 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.99), surpassing the performance of any single candidate factor alone. Furthermore, additional analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a radiomics-based nomogram that effectively predicts early recurrence in CRC patients, enhancing the potential for timely intervention and improved outcomes.

A retrospective study analyzing if lymph node ratio carbon nanoparticles predict stage III rectal cancer recurrence

Background

Lymph node ratio has garnered increasing attention as a prognostic marker for rectal cancer; however, few studies have investigated the relationship between lymph node ratio and rectal cancer recurrence. Additionally, Carbon Nanoparticle tracking is a safe and effective strategy for locating tumors and tracking lymph nodes. However, no studies have reported the relationship between Carbon Nanoparticles and rectal cancer recurrence.

Methods

Patients with stage III rectal cancer who underwent radical resection between January 2016 and 2020 were analyzed. The primary outcome was tumor recurrence. 269 patients with stage III rectal cancer were included in this study. The effects of lymph node ratio, Carbon Nanoparticles, and other clinicopathological factors on rectal cancer recurrence were assessed using univariate, multivariate analyses and the t-test.

Results

Univariate analysis determined tumor recurrence using cytokeratin 19 fragment, CA-199, CEA, N-stage, positive lymph nodes, total lymph nodes, and lymph node ratio(positive/total); with the lymph node ratio being the most relevant. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis determined lymph node ratio =0.38 as the optimal cutoff value. The analysis of lymph node ratio ≥0.38 and <0.38 showed statistical differences in three indicators: tumor recurrence, CEA, and use of Carbon Nanoparticles.

Conclusion

Lymph node ratio is a strong predictor of stage III rectal cancer recurrence and may be considered for inclusion in future tumor-node-metastasis staging and stage III rectal cancer stratification. In addition, we found that Carbon Nanoparticles use significantly increased total lymph nodes and decreased lymph node ratio.

Defining a Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in Gastric Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Gastrectomy

PURPOSE

To define and predict early recurrence (ER) in patients with gastric cancer (GC) who underwent radical gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).

METHODS

The present study included 573 patients who underwent NAC followed by curative resection for GC between January 2014 and December 2019. The patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 382) and validation (n = 191) cohorts in a 2:1 ratio. The optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival for defining ER was determined based on post-recurrence survival (PRS). Risk factors for ER were identified by logistic regression. A nomogram was further constructed and evaluated.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off value for defining ER was 12 months. Overall, 136 patients (23.7%) experienced ER and had significantly shorter median PRS (4 vs. 13 months, P < 0.001). In the training cohort, factors independently associated with ER included age (P = 0.026), Lauren classification (P < 0.001), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (P = 0.029), ypN staging (P < 0.001), major pathological regression (P = 0.004), and postoperative complications (P < 0.001). A nomogram integrating these factors exhibited higher predictive accuracy than the ypTNM stage alone in both the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, the nomogram enabled significant risk stratification in both cohorts; only the high-risk patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ER rate: 53.9% vs. 85.7%, P = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

A nomogram involving preoperative factors can accurately predict the risk of ER and guide individualized treatment strategies for GC patients following NAC, which may assist in clinical decision-making.

A refined prediction of early recurrence combining tumor deposits in patients with resected rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

Early recurrence (ER) of rectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) has yet to be defined. We therefore explored risk factors for ER and constructed a predictive nomogram.

METHOD

A total of 145 rectal MAC patients undergoing radical surgery were included. The minimum P value method was used to determine the optimal cut-off point to discriminate between ER and late recurrence (LR). Risk factors for ER were determined by a logistic regression analysis, and a predictive nomogram was constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 62 (42.8%) patients developed tumor recurrence. The optimal time to define ER was 12 months. A pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7 cm, pathological N stage, lymphovascular invasion, tumor deposits, and time to recurrence ≤ 12 months were significantly associated with a poor post-recurrence survival in patients with recurrence. A pre-treatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level > 10 ng/ml, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge ≤ 7 cm, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were identified as independent risk factors associated with ER. A nomogram predicting ER was constructed (C-index 0.870).

CONCLUSION

The pre-treatment serum CEA level, pre-treatment tumor distance from the anal verge, pathological N + stage, perineural invasion, and tumor deposits were significantly predictive of ER for rectal MAC patients.

Risk and location of distant metastases in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer after total neoadjuvant treatment or chemoradiotherapy in the RAPIDO trial

INTRODUCTION

Although optimising rectal cancer treatment has reduced local recurrence rates, many patients develop distant metastases (DM). The current study investigated whether a total neoadjuvant treatment strategy influences the development, location, and timing of metastases in patients diagnosed with high-risk locally advanced rectal cancer included in the Rectal cancer And Pre-operative Induction therapy followed by Dedicated Operation (RAPIDO) trial.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients were randomly assigned to short-course radiotherapy followed by 18 weeks of CAPOX or FOLFOX4 before surgery (EXP), or long-course chemoradiotherapy with optional postoperative chemotherapy (SC-G). Assessments for metastatic disease were performed pre- and post-treatment, during surgery, and 6, 12, 24, 36, and 60 months postoperatively. From randomisation, differences in the occurrence of DM and first site of metastasis were evaluated.

RESULTS

In total, 462 patients were evaluated in the EXP and 450 patients in the SC-G groups. The cumulative probability of DM at 5 years after randomisation was 23% [95% CI 19-27] and 30% [95% CI 26-35] (HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.56-0.93]; P = 0.011) in the EXP and SC-G, respectively. The median time to DM was 1.4 (EXP) and 1.3 years (SC-G). After diagnosis of DM, median survival was 2.6 years [95% CI 2.0-3.1] in the EXP and 3.2 years [95% CI 2.3-4.1] in the SC-G groups (HR 1.39 [95% CI 1.01-1.92]; P = 0.04). First occurrence of DM was most often in the lungs (60/462 [13%] EXP and 55/450 [12%] SC-G) or the liver (40/462 [9%] EXP and 69/450 [15%] SC-G). A hospital policy of postoperative chemotherapy did not influence the development of DM.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to long-course chemoradiotherapy, total neoadjuvant treatment with short-course radiotherapy and chemotherapy significantly decreased the occurrence of metastases, particularly liver metastases.

Clinical feasibility of the therapeutic strategies total neoadjuvant therapy and "watch and wait" in the treatment of rectal cancer patients with recurrence after clinical complete response

Purpose

In recent years, total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) has emerged as a new therapeutic strategy against advanced rectal cancer (RC). After administration of TNT, some patients show complete clinical response (cCR) to treatment however, disputes about the effects of TNT and the alternative treatment plans in case of recurrence after cCR still exist.

Methods

A total of 100 patients were included in this paper. CR and non-CR was observed when these patients were administered with TNT at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, China from May 2015 to June 2021. These patients received different chemotherapeutic regimens, with close monitoring and watch and wait (W&W) strategy being applied by a multidisciplinary team (MDT). According to treatment results, patients were divided into a cCR group and a non-cCR group; according to the recurrence during W&W, they were divided into a recurrence group and a no-local-recurrence group. This study analyzed the factors that may affect the prognosis, and summarized the surgery and treatment after recurrence.

Results

The TNT strategy was effective, and 85% of patients achieved local remission. However, W&W did not affect the survival time of CR patients, nor did it cause new distant metastasis due to local recurrence during the observation period (P > 0.05). However, for patients with positive CRM, we do not recommend W&W as the first choice of treatment (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

(1) Whole-course neoadjuvant therapy was an effective treatment scheme for advanced mid-term rectal cancer. The total local reduction rate of this group of cases was 85.00%, meaning that 25 patients achieved CR. (2) W&W was safe and reliable, and CR patients could receive it as the preferred treatment. (3) CRM was an independent risk factor for local recurrence in CR patients. We do not recommend W&W as the preferred treatment for CR patients with positive CRM.

Predictive value of a serum tumor biomarkers scoring system for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Multiple classes of molecular biomarkers have been studied as potential predictors for rectal cancer (RC) response. Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is the most widely used blood-based marker of RC and has proven to be an effective predictive marker. Cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is another tumor biomarker used for RC diagnosis and postoperative monitoring, as well as monitoring of the therapeutic effect. Using a panel of tumor markers for RC outcome prediction is a practical approach.

AIM

To assess the predictive effect of pre-neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) CEA and CA19-9 levels on the prognosis of stage II/III RC patients.

METHODS

CEA and CA19-9 levels were evaluated 1 wk before NCRT. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off point of CEA and CA19-9 levels for the prognosis were 3.55 and 19.01, respectively. The novel serum tumor biomarker (NSTB) scores were as follows: score 0: Pre-NCRT CEA < 3.55 and CA19-9 < 19.01; score 2: Pre-NCRT CEA > 3.55 and CA19-9 > 19.01; score 1: Other situations. Pathological information was recorded according to histopathological reports after the operation.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, pre-NCRT CEA < 3.55 [P = 0.025 for overall survival (OS), P = 0.019 for disease-free survival (DFS)], pre-NCRT CA19-9 < 19.01 (P = 0.014 for OS, P = 0.009 for DFS), a lower NSTB score (0-1 vs 2, P = 0.009 for OS, P = 0.005 for DFS) could predict a better prognosis. However, in the multivariate analysis, only a lower NSTB score (0-1 vs 2; for OS, HR = 0.485, 95%CI: 0.251-0.940, P = 0.032; for DFS, HR = 0.453, 95%CI: 0.234-0.877, P = 0.019) and higher pathological grade, node and metastasis stage (0-I vs II-III; for OS, HR = 0.363, 95%CI: 0.158-0.837, P = 0.017; for DFS, HR = 0.342, 95%CI: 0.149-0.786, P = 0.012) were independent predictive factors.

CONCLUSION

The combination of post-NCRT CEA and CA19-9 was a predictive factor for clinical stage II/III RC patients receiving NCRT, and the combined index had a stronger predictive effect.

Clinical Safety and Effectiveness of Robotic-Assisted Surgery in Patients with Rectal Cancer: Real-World Experience over 8 Years of Multiple Institutions with High-Volume Robotic-Assisted Surgery

The perioperative and short-term oncological outcomes of robotic-assisted rectal surgery (RRS) are unclear. This retrospective observational study enrolled patients with rectal adenocarcinoma undergoing RRS from three high-volume institutions in Taiwan. Of the 605 enrolled patients, 301 (49.75%), 176 (29.09%), and 116 (19.17%) had lower, middle, and upper rectal cancers, respectively. Low anterior resection (377, 62.31%) was the most frequent surgical procedure. Intraoperative blood transfusion was performed in 10 patients (2%). The surgery was converted to an open one for one patient (0.2%), and ten (1.7%) patients underwent reoperation. The overall complication rate was 14.5%, including 3% from anastomosis leakage. No deaths occurred during surgery and within 30 days postoperatively. The positive rates of distal resection margin and circumferential resection margin were observed in 21 (3.5%) and 30 (5.0%) patients, respectively. The 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates for patients with stage I-III rectal cancer were 91.1% and 86.3%, respectively. This is the first multi-institutional study in Taiwan with 605 patients from three high-volume hospitals. The overall surgical and oncological outcomes were equivalent or superior to those estimated in other studies. Hence, RRS is an effective and safe technique for rectal resection in high-volume hospitals.

Early Versus Late Recurrence in Rectal Cancer: Does Timing Matter?

BACKGROUND

The definition of early recurrence (ER) in rectal cancer is unclear, and the association of ER with post-recurrence survival (PRS) is poorly described. We therefore sought to identify if time to recurrence (TTR) is associated with PRS.

METHODS

We reviewed all curative-intent resections of nonmetastatic rectal cancer from 2003 to 2018 in our institutional registry within an NCI-Designated Comprehensive Cancer Center. Clinicopathologic data at diagnosis and first recurrence were collected and analyzed. ER was pre-specified at < 24 months and late recurrence (LR) at ≥ 24 months. PRS was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards modeling.

RESULTS

At a median follow-up of 53 months, 61 out of 548 (11.1%) patients undergoing resection experienced recurrence. Median TTR was 14 months (IQR 10-18) with 45 of 61 patients (74%) classified as ER. There were no significant baseline differences between patients with ER and LR. Most recurrences were isolated to the liver (26%) or lung (31%), and 16% were locoregional. ER was not associated with worse PRS compared to LR (P > 0.99). On multivariable analysis, detection of recurrence via workup for symptoms, CEA > 10 ng/mL at recurrence, and site of recurrence were independently associated with PRS.

CONCLUSION

ER is not associated with PRS in patients with resected rectal cancer. Symptomatic recurrences and those accompanied by CEA elevations are associated with worse PRS, while metastatic disease confined to the liver or lung is associated with improved PRS. Attention should be directed away from TTR and instead toward determining therapy for patients with treatable oligometastatic disease.

The survival after recurrence of colorectal cancer: a retrospective study focused on time to recurrence after curative resection

PURPOSE

The significance of the duration of the recurrence-free survival after curative resection for colorectal cancer remains unclear. The purpose was to reveal the association between time to recurrence after surgery and the survival after recurrence.

METHODS

Patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer who underwent curative resection between 2007 and 2015 were retrospectively reviewed (n = 645). Patients with recurrence after surgery (n = 133) were divided into 2 groups: early recurrence (within 13 months after surgery, n = 63) and late recurrence (more than 13 months after surgery, n = 70). The overall survival after recurrence and clinicopathological features were compared between early recurrence, late recurrence, and without recurrence groups.

RESULTS

The overall survival after recurrence was significantly shorter in patients with early recurrence occurring at less than 13 months (hazard ratio: 1.70, p = 0.03). A high preoperative CA19-9 level (odds ratio [OR]: 2.38, p = 0.03), venous invasion (OR: 2.26, p = 0.03), and the absence of adjuvant chemotherapy (OR: 2.08, p = 0.04) were independently correlated with early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Early recurrence was associated with a poor prognosis after recurrence. Venous invasion correlated with early recurrence. Adjuvant chemotherapy may reduce the risk of early recurrence. These results indicate the importance of prudent surveillance and the aggressive application of adjuvant chemotherapy.

Individualized conditional survival nomograms for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Conditional survival (CS) considers the time already survived after surgery when estimating the survival probability, which may provide further useful prognostic information.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate CS in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and to create CS nomograms predicting the conditional probability of survival after proctectomy.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with LARC who received nCRT followed by radical resection between 2011 and 2016 were identified. CS was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for CS was CS(x|y) = S(x + y)/S(x), where S(x) represents the survival at x years. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 5-year conditional overall survival (cOS) and conditional recurrence-free survival (cRFS).

RESULTS

A total of 785 patients were included. The median follow-up time was 65.5 months. The probability of achieving 5-year survival after surgery for cancer increases with additional survival time. Maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, preoperative CA19-9 level, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent predictors of OS, while maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent risk factors for RFS. The nomograms predicted 5-year cOS and cRFS using these predictors and the time already survived. The online calculator can be accessed at http://www.rectalcancer.top/webcalculator.

CONCLUSION

The proposed nomograms predict survival in patients after surgery, taking the time already survived into account.

Data on patterns of initial recurrence after curative surgery for rectal cancer with neoadjuvant therapy

This paper accompanies the paper titled "Defining and predicting early recurrence in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy" presented by the same authors to the European Journal of Surgical Oncology [1]. The present article describes the relevant clinical data of patterns of initial recurrence after curative surgery for rectal cancer with neoadjuvant therapy. This data was collected from the hospital records, Chinese Population Registration and Health Insurance System.