Evaluation of a scoring system to predict treatment success with single-dose methotrexate in ectopic pregnancy

PURPOSE

This study sought to assess the efficacy of a newly developed scoring system in predicting treatment outcomes for ectopic pregnancy among patients undergoing single-dose methotrexate therapy. The primary research question centered on the reliability and predictive accuracy of objective parameters in determining methotrexate therapy success.

METHODS

Conducted as a retrospective single-center cohort study, data from 172 ectopic pregnancy patients treated with methotrexate between January 2021 and January 2023 were analyzed. Parameters including adnexal mass size, peritoneal fluid presence, yolk sac identification, endometrial thickness, ectopic pregnancy location, and initial B-hCG levels were meticulously evaluated for their association with treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Following the exclusion of 21 emergency surgery cases, the final analysis comprised 151 patients. Notable associations were observed between specific parameters (fetal cardiac activity, adnexal mass size  > 3.5 cm, peritoneal fluid presence, yolk sac identification, endometrial thickness  > 10 mm, and initial B-hCG levels) and treatment outcomes (p < 0.001). Additionally, the novel scoring system demonstrated promising predictive performance. At a cutoff of 2.50, it achieved a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 59.7%. Increasing the cutoff to 3.50 resulted in a sensitivity of 94.0%, with a specificity of 46.3%.

CONCLUSION

Objective parameters, particularly those integrated into the developed scoring system, exhibited substantial associations with methotrexate therapy outcomes in ectopic pregnancy. These findings underscore the potential of an objective scoring model to significantly influence clinical decision-making in therapy, offering avenues for enhanced prognostication and patient care in treatment outcomes.

two-stage revision

INTRODUCTION

There are no widely accepted algorithms for determining optimal treatment for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). Our study aimed to confirm the validity of a previously published scoring system in a larger number of patients to support a rational surgical treatment strategy for periprosthetic hip infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between February 2001 and December 2020, we performed 155 consecutive revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) for PJI, with mean follow-up of 6 years. One-stage revision THA was performed in 56 hips and two-stage revision THA in 99 hips. Prosthesis survival from recurrent infection was determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis, using implant removal as the endpoint. The pre-operative scoring system (full score of 12 points), including 6 essential elements, was retrospectively evaluated.

RESULTS

The 10-year survival rates were 98% for one-stage (95% confidence interval [CI], 94-100) and 87% (95% CI, 79-96) for two-stage revision THA. Multivariate Cox regression analysis provided a total preoperative score as an independent risk factor for implant removal (hazard ratio, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.49; p < 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity at the cut-off of 4 points on the scoring system were 80% and 91%, respectively. The average score for one-stage revision THA in successful and failed cases were 8.9 and 6.0, and for two-stage revision THA were 6.5 and 3.9, respectively. We found significant differences between successful cases in one- and two-stage revision THA (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The preoperative scoring system was useful for managing PJI. One-stage revision THA is recommended in patients scoring ≥ 9 points, and meticulously performed two-stage revision THA is encouraged for patients scoring ≥ 4 points.

A novel scoring system for early prediction of massive transfusion requirement in trauma patients

Early resuscitation using blood products is critical for patients with severe hemorrhagic shock. We aimed to develop and validate a new scoring system, hemorrhagic shock transfusion prediction (HSTP) score, to predict the need for massive transfusion (MT) in these patients, compared to the widely used Assessment of Blood Consumption (ABC) score. Trauma patients admitted to Emtiaz Hospital in Iran from 2017 to 2021 were retrospectively included. Patients assigned a code 1 or 2 according to the Emergency severity index (ESI) triage system have been divided into MT and non-MT groups. MT was defined as receiving ≥ 10 units of packed cells (PCs) in 24 h. Demographic information, admission vital signs, and lab results available within 15 min were compared between the groups. A new predictive score was developed using logistic regression of statistically significant parameters. Out of 1029 patients, 651 (63.3%) required MT. An arrival, diastolic blood pressure < 79.5 mm Hg, absolute lymphocyte count > 1850/μL, base excess < - 4.25, and blood glucose > 156 mg/dL were independent predictors included in the HSTP score. The sensitivity and specificity were 74.36% and 53.87% for the HSTP score, compared to 31.03% and 76.16% for the ABC score. Moreover, the positive and negative predictive values were 77.88% and 49.03% for the HSTP score, versus 74.15% and 33.66% for ABC. The new scoring system demonstrated higher sensitivity and improved positive and negative predictive values compared to the ABC score. This score can assist physicians in making accurate transfusion decisions quickly, but further prospective studies are warranted to validate its clinical utility.

A scoring system for grading corkscrew claws in dairy cattle

Corkscrew claw (CC) in dairy cattle is increasingly reported in dairy herds. CC is a progressive deformity of the claw capsule with uncertain aetiology and pathogenesis. Genetics and specific environmental factors are suspected of contributing to the development of this irreversible condition. CC has been found in lame cows; however, the cause and effect has not been established. To perform analysis of risk factors, treatment and pathogenesis, a definition of severity scores is called for. The aim of this study was to measure and analyse CC characteristics from photos of cows' feet to describe and evaluate a scoring system for CC. Width of the visible part of the axial wall, degree of contact between the toe and the floor and angle of the distal part of the abaxial wall as a proxy for the deviation of the abaxial wall was measured from 393 pictures of CC. Based on the measurements on the claws, the parameter "width of the axial wall" was chosen to define the scores. The parameter was divided into three intervals to define either mild CC 0.3-2.0 cm, moderate CC 2.1-3.5 cm or severe CC>3.5 cm and correlation between the parameters; level of contact between the toe and the floor and the angle of the distal abaxial wall was evaluated. There was a significant positive linear correlation between width of the axial wall and angle of the distal part of the abaxial wall (r=0.91), the wider the axial wall, the more the abaxial wall deviated in the distal part. As the width of the axial wall increased the toe increasingly lost contact with the floor, this association was significant for mild CC and moderate CC but not for severe CC. The Interobserver agreement of the CC Scoring system was tested by 30 claw trimmers each scoring 32 cadaver feet and by 2 trained observers on 28 photos of feet using Cohen´s weighted kappa and showed substantial to almost perfect agreement between untrained and trained observers, respectively.

Reliability assessment of the OMERACT whole-body magnetic resonance imaging scoring system for juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Inter-reader reliability of a new scoring system for evaluating joint inflammation and enthesitis in whole body MRI (WBMRI) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis was tested. The scoring system grades 732 item-region combinations of bone marrow and soft tissue changes for commonly involved joints and entheseal sites. Five radiologists rated 17 WBMRI scans through an online rating platform. Item-wise reliability was calculated for 117 items with non-zero scores in >10 % of readings. Interquartile ranges of the five-reader Kappa reliability coefficients were 0.58-0.73 (range: 0.36-0.88) for the joints, 0.65-0.81 (range: 0.39-0.95) for the entheses, and 0.62-0.75 (range: 0.60-0.76) for chronic nonbacterial osteomyelitis-like lesions.

Early prediction and prevention of infected pancreatic necrosis

Approximately 20%-30% of patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis develop infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN), a highly morbid and potentially lethal complication. Early identification of patients at high risk of IPN may facilitate appropriate preventive measures to improve clinical outcomes. In the past two decades, several markers and predictive tools have been proposed and evaluated for this purpose. Conventional biomarkers like C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lymphocyte count, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8, and newly developed biomarkers like angiopoietin-2 all showed significant association with IPN. On the other hand, scoring systems like the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System have also been tested, and the results showed that they may provide better accuracy. For early prevention of IPN, several new therapies were tested, including early enteral nutrition, antibiotics, probiotics, immune enhancement, etc., but the results varied. Taken together, several evidence-supported predictive markers and scoring systems are readily available for predicting IPN. However, effective treatments to reduce the incidence of IPN are still lacking apart from early enteral nutrition. In this editorial, we summarize evidence concerning early prediction and prevention of IPN, providing insights into future practice and study design. A more homogeneous patient population with reliable risk-stratification tools may help find effective treatments to reduce the risk of IPN, thereby achieving individualized treatment.

The predictors of long-term outcomes after targeted therapy for primary Aldosteronism

Unilateral primary aldosteronism is thought to be a surgically curable disease, and unilateral adrenalectomy is the mainstay treatment. The Primary Aldosteronism Surgical Outcome (PASO) consensus was developed to assess clinical and biochemical outcomes to standardize the classification of surgical outcomes. However, fewer than half of patients are cured of hypertension after adrenalectomy; therefore, preoperative patient counseling and evaluation might be necessary. Moreover, current studies show that genetic mutations and histopathology classification are associated with the treatment outcome. The Task Force of Taiwan PA recommends using a specific scoring system, including the PASO score and nomogram-based preoperative score, to predict the clinical outcome before adrenalectomy. Herein, we discuss the associations of current histopathological classification and specific somatic gene mutations with clinical outcomes after surgery.

The value of musculoskeletal ultrasound in predicting gout flares in index joints: A prospective cohort study of people with gout starting urate-lowering therapy

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether ultrasound findings of monosodium urate (MSU) crystal deposition predict frequent gout flares in index joints over 12 months.

METHODS

This single-center study enrolled people with at least one gout flare involving the MTP1, ankle or knee joint. The most painful or most frequently joint was identified as index joint for analysis. All participants were started on urate-lowering therapy and had an ultrasound scan of the index joints at the baseline visit. OMERACT scores (for tophus, double contour sign and aggregates) were used to analyze whether ultrasound scores predicted frequent (≥2) gout flares in the index joint over 12 months.

RESULTS

Frequent flares were significantly higher in those with ultrasound findings in all index joints (MTP1: tophus: 85.0% vs 46.0%, P < 0.001, aggregates: 78.8% vs 59.0%, P < 0.01; ankle: tophus: 54.6% vs 20.8%, P < 0.001; aggregates: 60.0% vs 35.9%, P < 0.05; knee: tophus: 68.4% vs 28.6%, P < 0.05). For the MTP1, for each 1-point increase in tophus score, the odds of frequent gout flares increased by 5.19 [(95%CI: 1.26-21.41), 7.91 [(95%CI: 2.23-28.14), and 13.79 [(95%CI: 3.79-50.20)] fold respectively. For the ankle, a tophus score of 3 markedly improved the prediction of the frequent flares [OR= 9.24 (95%CI=2.85-29.91)]. Semi-quantitative sum scores were associated with frequent flares with an OR (95%CI) of 13.66 (3.44-54.18), P < 0.001 at the MTP1, 7.05 (1.98-25.12), P < 0.001 at the ankle.

CONCLUSION

Ultrasound features of MSU crystal deposition at the MTP1 and knee predict subsequent risk of frequent gout flares in the same joints following initiation of urate-lowering therapy, with the highest risk in those with high tophus scores.

Diagnostic tools for fecal incontinence: Scoring systems are the crucial first step

The main aim of this editorial is to comment on the recent article published by Garg et al in the World Journal of Gastroenterology 2023; 29: 4593-4603. This original research presents a new scoring system for fecal incontinence. Fecal incontinence is a chronic disease with a severe impact on the quality of life of the patients. Substantial social stigmatization often leads to significant underreporting of the condition even during visits to a specialist and could lead to further mismanagement or non-existent management of the disease. An important fact is that patients are often unable to describe their condition when not asked precisely defined questions. This problem is partially resolved by scoring questionnaires. Several scoring systems are commonly used; however, each of them has their shortcomings. For example, the absence of different kinds of leakage besides flatus and stool could further lead to underscoring the incontinence severity. Therefore, there has long been a call for a more precise scoring system. The correct identification of the presence and severity of fecal incontinence is paramount for further diagnostic approach and for choosing the appropriate therapy option. This editorial describes fecal incontinence, its effect on quality of life in general and further evaluates the diagnostic approach with a particular focus on symptom scoring systems and their implications for clinical practice.

Foreign body aspiration score (FOBAS)-a prospectively validated algorithm for the management and prediction of foreign body aspiration in children

Foreign body aspiration (FBA) is a common cause of pediatric morbidity, but a standardized protocol to guide decision-making about bronchoscopy is lacking. We aimed to validate a new Foreign body aspiration score (FOBAS) for the pediatric emergency department (ED). Patients aged 0-18 years referred to the ED for suspected FBA were prospectively enrolled. FOBAS was calculated according to clinical features of a choking episode, sudden cough, exposure to nuts, absence of fever and rhinitis, stridor, and unilateral auscultatory and radiological findings. FBA risk was evaluated based on the total score (low, 1-3; moderate, 4-6; high, 7-10). Low-risk children were discharged from the ED and followed clinically. Moderate-risk children were hospitalized and evaluated by a pediatric pulmonologist, and high-risk children were referred directly for therapeutic bronchoscopy. Among the 100 enrolled children (59% males; median age 20 [interquartile range 11-39] months), a foreign body was diagnosed in 1/49 (2%), 14/41 (34.1%), and 9/10 (90%) with low, moderate, and high FOBAS, respectively (P < .001). Logistic regression indicated a higher risk for FBA with higher scores. The odds ratio for each additional point was 2.75 (95% confidence interval 1.78-4.24), and FOBAS showed a high predictive value for FBA (area under the curve 0.89). FOBAS implementation significantly reduced the rate of negative bronchoscopies, from 67.4% annually during 2016-2019 to 50% in 2020 (P = .042).

CONCLUSION

FOBAS reliably predicts FBA in cases of suspected FBA and improves management and in-hospital decision-making.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Foreign body aspiration is a major cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality. • Currently, there is no unified protocol for children referred to the emergency department for suspected FBA, therefore, a well-defined algorithm is needed to improve the decision-making process.

WHAT IS NEW

• The pediatric Foreign body aspiration score (FOBAS) is a new, prospectively validated clinical score that shows high sensitivity and specificity for the presence of FBA in children. • FOBAS reduces unnecessary admissions and invasive procedures and leads to better clinical outcomes.

Foreign body ingestion in children: Definition of a nomogram to predict surgical or endoscopic intervention

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Foreign body ingestion (FBI) in children requires early identification to prevent adverse outcomes and may necessitate endoscopic or surgical intervention. This study aims to develop a nomogram that identifies children who require urgent surgical or endoscopic intervention by using the patient's medical history and clinical parameters collected at admission.

METHODS

This study is a retrospective review (01/2015-12/2020) of a multicenter case series of children admitted for FBI. Data from 5864 records from 24 hospitals in Italy were analyzed. Logistic regression models were used to establish the probability of requiring surgical or endoscopic intervention based on patient history and clinical characteristics. The nomogram representing the results from the multivariable model was reported to examine the propensity for surgery/endoscopy.

RESULTS

The study identified a significant association between intervention and various factors, including type of foreign body (blunt: reference category, disk battery (odds ratio OR:4.89), food bolus (OR:1.88), magnets (OR:2.61), sharp-pointed (OR:1.65), unknown (OR:1.02)), pre-existing diseases or conditions (OR 3.42), drooling (OR 10.91), dysphagia (OR 5.58), vomiting (OR 3.30), retrosternal pain (OR 5.59), abdominal pain (OR 1.58), hematemesis (OR 2.82), food refusal/poor feeding (OR 2.99), and unexplained crying (OR 2.01). The multivariable regression model showed good calibration and discrimination ability, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.77.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed the first nomogram to predict the probability of the need for surgical or endoscopic intervention in children with FBI, based on the information collected at admission. The nomogram will aid clinicians in identifying children who require early intervention to prevent adverse outcomes.

The correlation between the CT angiographic pulmonary artery obstructive index and clinical data in patients with acute pulmonary thromboembolism

PURPOSE

The potentially fatal consequences of pulmonary embolism emphasize the need for more effective diagnostic methods. The Qanadli obstruction index has been described as a convenient tool for risk stratification to determine and quantify the degree of obstruction. This study aimed to assess the correlations between the Qanadli index with clinical and paraclinical findings (D-dimer, troponin, and echocardiographic findings) in patients with pulmonary embolism.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 102 patients with pulmonary embolism underwent echocardiography and CT pulmonary angiography at a single tertiary referral center between 2019 and 2020. The clinical and paraclinical findings, pulmonary arterial obstruction index, atrial measurements, right and left ventricle size and function, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, pulmonary artery pressure, and pulmonary hypertension (PH) were analyzed. Vital signs were recorded and assessed. The Qanadli index score was measured, and graded risk stratification was measured based on the quantified index score.

RESULTS

The total mean Qanadli index was 28.75 ± 23.75, and there was no significant relationship between the Qanadli index and gender. Patients' most common clinical findings were exertional dyspnea (84.3%; n = 86) and chest pain (71.7%; n = 73). There were significant correlations between the Qanadli index and pulse rate (PR), troponin, D-dimer levels, and PH. Four patients died during the study, including one from a cardiac condition and three with non-cardiac conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to determine the severity, prognosis, and appropriate treatment by the Qanadli index based on strong correlations with PR, troponin, D-dimer levels, and PH.

Will it make a difference?

The main aim of this opinion review is to comment on the recent article published by Garg et al in the World Journal of Gastroenterology 2023; 29: 4593-4603. The authors in the published article developed a new scoring system, Garg incontinence scores (GIS), for fecal incontinence (FI). FI is a chronic debilitating disease that has a severe negative impact on the quality of life of the patients. Rome IV criteria define FI as multiple episodes of solid or liquid stool passed into the clothes at least twice a month. The associated social stigmatization often leads to significant under-reporting of the condition, which further impairs management. An important point is that the complexity and vagueness of the disease make it difficult for the patients to properly define and report the magnitude of the problem to their physicians. Due to this, the management becomes even more difficult. This issue is resolved up to a considerable extent by a scoring questionnaire. There were several scoring systems in use for the last three decades. The prominent of them were the Cleveland Clinic scoring system or the Wexner scoring system, St. Marks Hospital or Vaizey's scores, and the FI severity index. However, there were several shortcomings in these scoring systems. In the opinion review, we tried to analyze the strength of GIS and compare it to the existing scoring systems. The main pitfalls in the existing scoring systems were that most of them gave equal weightage to different types of FI (solid, liquid, flatus, etc.), were not comprehensive, and took only the surgeon's perception of FI into view. In GIS, almost all shortcomings of previous scoring systems had been addressed: different weights were assigned to different types of FI by a robust statistical methodology; the scoring system was made comprehensive by including all types of FI that were previously omitted (urge, stress and mucus FI) and gave priority to patients' rather than the physicians' perceptions while developing the scoring system. Due to this, GIS indeed looked like a paradigm shift in the evaluation of FI. However, it is too early to conclude this, as GIS needs to be validated for accuracy and simplicity in future studies.

Clinical prediction models for cervical lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid carcinoma

PURPOSE

Accurate preoperative diagnosis of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remains an unsolved problem. This study aimed to construct a nomogram and scoring system for predicting LNM based on the clinical characteristics of patients with PTC.

METHODS

1400 patients with PTC who underwent thyroidectomy and lymph node dissection at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into training and internal testing sets. Furthermore, 692 patients with PTC from three other medical centers were collected as external testing sets. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to screen the predictors, and a nomogram was constructed. In addition, a scoring system was constructed using 10-fold cross-validation. The performances of the two models were verified among datasets and compared with preoperative ultrasound (US).

RESULTS

Six independent predictors were included in the multivariate logistic model: age, sex, US diagnosis of LNM, tumor diameter, location, and thyroid peroxidase antibody level. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (95% confidence interval) of this nomogram in the training, internal testing, and three external testing sets were 0.816 (0.791-0.840), 0.782 (0.727-0.837), 0.759 (0.699-0.819), 0.749 (0.667-0.831), and 0.777 (0.726-0.828), respectively. The AUROC of the scoring system were 0.810 (0.785-0.835), 0.772 (0.718-0.826), 0.736 (0.675-0.798), 0.717 (0.635-0.799) and 0.756 (0.704-0.808), respectively. The prediction performances were both significantly superior to those of preoperative US (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram and scoring system performed well in different datasets and significantly improved the preoperative prediction of LNM than US alone.

Atypical ductal hyperplasia on vacuum-assisted breast biopsy: a scoring system to predict the risk of upgrade to malignancy

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Our multicentric study analysed clinical, radiologic and pathologic features in patients with atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) diagnosed with vacuum-assisted biopsy (VAB), to identify factors associated with the risk of upgrade, to develop a scoring system to support decision making.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with ADH on VAB under stereotactic/tomosynthesis guidance (2012-2022) were eligible. Inclusion criteria were availability of surgical histopathological examination of the entire lesion or radiologic follow-up (FUP) ≥ 24 months. VAB results were compared with surgical pathological results or with imaging FUP evolution to assess upgrade. A backward stepwise linear regression was used to identify predictors of upgrade. The discriminatory power of the model was calculated through the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC-AUC); the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess model calibration. The points system was developed based on the selected risk factors, and the probability of upgrade associated with each point total was determined.

RESULTS

112 ADH lesions were included: 91 (91/112, 81.3%) underwent surgical excision with 20 diagnosis of malignancy, while 21 (21/112, 18.7%) underwent imaging FUP with one interval change (mean FUP time 48 months). Overall upgrade rate was 18.7% (21/112). Age, menopausal status, concurrent breast cancer, BIRADS classification and number of foci of ADH were identified as risk factors for upgrade. Our model showed an AUC = 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.94). The points system showed that the risk of upgrade is < 2% when the total score is ≤ 1.

CONCLUSION

Our scoring system seemed a promising easy-to-use decision support tool for management of ADH, decreasing unnecessary surgeries, reducing patients' overtreatment and healthcare costs.

[Predictive value of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets for children with intravenous immunoglobulin-resistant Kawasaki disease]

OBJECTIVES

Based on peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and common laboratory test indexes, this study aimed to construct a predictive scoring system for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease (KD).

METHODS

Children hospitalized in Tianjin Children's Hospital from January 2021 to March 2023 were included in the study (185 cases of IVIG-sensitive KD and 41 cases of IVIG -resistant KD). Forty-six healthy children matched for age and gender were selected as controls. The relative percentage and absolute counts of peripheral lymphocyte subsets were measured by flow cytometry. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the predictive factors for IVIG-resistant KD and to construct a predictive scoring system for predicting IVIG-resistant KD.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that CD4+ T cell absolute count, natural killer cell absolute count, serum sodium level, globulin level, and total bilirubin level were identified as predictive factors for IVIG-resistant KD (P<0.05). The predictive scoring system based on these factors achieved a sensitivity of 70.7% and a specificity of 83.8% in predicting IVIG-resistant KD.

CONCLUSIONS

Peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets can serve as predictive indicators for IVIG-resistant KD in children. The introduction of this indicator and the establishment of a scoring system based on it can provide a higher accuracy in predicting IVIG-resistant KD in children.

Establishment and Validation of the LI-RADS Morphologic Type II Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Recurrence Risk Scoring System

BACKGROUND

Tumor morphology links to early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Controversy exists regarding the recurrence risk of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System morphologic Type II hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to explore risk factors for early recurrence of Type II hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients who underwent curative resection and preoperative contrast-enhanced MRI from June 2016 to June 2020. Our patients formed the development set, and hepatocellular carcinoma patients from the TCIA database served as validation. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression identified independent risk factors for early recurrence. A risk scoring system was established for risk stratification, and an early recurrence prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

95 Type II hepatocellular carcinoma patients were in the development set, and 29 cases were in the validation set. Early recurrence rates were 33.7% and 37.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed age, histological grade, AFP, and intratumoral hemorrhage as independent risk factors for early recurrence. The model's diagnostic performance for early recurrence was AUC = 0.817 in the development set. A scoring system classified patients into low-risk (scores ≤ 3) and high-risk (scores > 3) groups. The high-risk group had significantly lower recurrence-free survival (40.0% vs 73.2%, P = 0.001), consistent with the validation set (25.0% vs 73.3%, P = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk scoring system demonstrated excellent discrimination and predictive ability, aiding clinicians in assessing early recurrence risk and identifying high-risk individuals effectively.

OOPHORECTOMY: When and Why? A Novel Risk Stratification Tool as an Aid to Decision Making at Gynecological Surgeries

The decision regarding oophorectomy during gynecological surgeries, especially in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women, has historically posed a significant dilemma. Traditionally, it was widely believed that conserving the ovaries held no benefits, leading to a common practice of recommending bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy alongside hysterectomy for benign conditions in women aged 40-45 and above. Given our evolving comprehension of postmenopausal ovarian function and the genetic susceptibility to ovarian epithelial cancers, the decision regarding oophorectomy poses a dilemma. Oophorectomy is recommended for women with a higher risk of ovarian cancer and ovarian conservation is necessary with women with higher risk of co-morbidities. This paper reviews the available literature on these aspects of oophorectomy. Despite a wealth of literature narrating the advantages and disadvantages of oophorectomy, covering various aspects such as ovarian cancer risk, myocardial infarction incidence, and post-oophorectomy peritoneal cancer, there is a notable absence of a comprehensive evaluation system for risk stratification. The objective of the present paper is to address this gap by consolidating existing literature into a risk stratification system. This system will provide treating physicians a tool that facilitates more informed, case-specific decisions in collaboration with patients and their families. While recognizing that the ultimate decision must be tailored to the individual case and agreed upon mutually by the surgeon, patient, and family, the proposed system seeks to streamline risk stratification. This, in turn, should aid in determining the most suitable course of treatment that maximizes benefits for the patient.

A new risk predictive scoring system of vasovagal reactions in patients with preoperative autologous blood donation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Vasovagal response (VVR) is the most common adverse reaction during blood donation and it is the main element for the safety of the patients with preoperative autologous blood donation (PABD). Accurate identification high-risk group is of great significance for PABD. Our study aimed to establish a scoring system based on the nomogram to screen the high-risk population and provide evidence for preventing the occurrence of VVRs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A number of 4829 patients underwent PABD between July 2017 and June 2020 in the first medical center of Chinese PLA Hospital were recruited, 3387 of whom were included in the training group (70 %; 108 VVRs patients vs 3279 Non-VVRs patients), 1442 were included in the validation group (30 %; 46 VVRs patients vs 1396 Non-VVRs patients). The data were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The nomogram of the scoring system was created by using the RMS tool in R software.

RESULTS

Seven variables including BMI, hematocrit, pre-phlebotomy heart rate and systolic blood pressure, history of blood donation, age group and primary disease were selected to build the nomogram, which was shown as prediction model. And the score was 0-1 for BMI, 0-2 for hematocrit, systolic blood pressure, heart rate and no blood donation history, 0-10 for age, 0-3 for primary disease. When the total cutoff score was 11, the predictive system for identifying VVRs displayed higher diagnostic accuracy. The area under the curve, specificity, and sensitivity of the training group were 0.942, 82.41 % and 97.17 %, respectively, whereas those of the validation group were 0.836, 78.26 % and 78.15 %, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A risk predictive scoring system was successfully developed to identify high-risk VVRs group form PABD patients that performed well.

When to use which molecular prognostic scoring system in the management of patients with MDS?

Myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDS) are a heterogeneous group of hematopoietic cancers characterized by recurrent molecular alterations driving the disease pathogenesis with a variable propensity for progression to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Clinical decision making for MDS relies on appropriate risk stratification at diagnosis, with higher-risk patients requiring more intensive therapy. The conventional clinical prognostic systems including the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) and its revised version (IPSS-R) have dominated the risk stratification of MDS from 1997 until 2022. Concurrently, the use of next-generation sequencing has revolutionized the field by revealing multiple recurrent genetic mutations, which correlate with phenotype and prognosis. Significant efforts have been made to formally incorporate molecular data into prognostic tools to improve proper risk identification and personalize treatment strategies. In this review, we will critically compare the available molecular scoring systems for MDS focusing on areas of progress and potential limitations that can be improved in subsequent revisions of these tools.

Comparison of prognosis of five scoring systems in emphysematous pyelonephritis patients requiring intensive care

INTRODUCTION

Our study aimed to evaluate the performance of Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and Global Research in the Emphysematous Pyelonephritis group (GREMP) in predicting the need of admission in intensive care units (ICU) for emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN) patient.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, we reviewed 70 patients admitted to our department from January 2008 to October 2022. Data on clinical presentation and EPN management were noted. The five scoring systems were calculated by one investigator. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess predictive factors of severe sepsis and mortality. Statistical analysis was made using SPSS version 22.

RESULTS

Mean age was 61.83 years with 65.7% diabetes. As per Huang and Tseng classification, 41 patients had class I EPN, 7 had class II EPN, 8 had class IIIa, 6 class IIIB EPN, and 8 had class IV EPN. Seventeen patients (24.28%) were admitted to ICU with an 18.57 mortality rate. Univariate analysis showed that ICU admission was significantly associated with higher respiration rate and heart rate, lower systolic blood pressure, confusion, CRP, lactate and creatinine serum (p = 0.0001, p = 0.0001, p = 0.001, p = 0.007, p = 0.004, p = 0.001, p = 0.001, respectively). All five scores and Huang and Tseng classification were significantly predictive of admission to ICU. All five scores showed good results under the area curves to predict ICU entry with 0.915, 0.895, 0.968, 0.887, and 0.846 for qSOFA, MEWS score, NEWS score, SIRS, and GREMP score, respectively.

CONCLUSION

NEWS score seemed to be the best performing physiologic score among the five scoring systems studied and may help with biological and radiological findings to quickly identify EPN patients that need intensive care unit.

Impact of an Educational Mobile App on Inflammatory Bowel Disease Colonoscopy Report Quality

BACKGROUND

Inadequate endoscopic assessment of disease activity might lead to suboptimal treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

AIMS

We aimed to determine if the implementation of an educational mobile app could help improving the quality of colonoscopy reports in patients with IBD.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed a consecutive series of colonoscopy reports in patients with IBD during the period 2016-2023. The sample was divided into two groups: before and after the implementation of an educational mobile app (JEDII app ™). The main outcome was the inclusion of validated activity assessment scoring systems and previously stablished reporting required elements.

RESULTS

A total of 883 IBD colonoscopy reports were included for analysis; 621 (70.3%) procedures were performed before the implementation of the app and 262 (29.7%) after. An IBD scoring system was included in 201 (32.4%) and 148 (56.5%) colonoscopy reports before and after the adoption of the mobile app, respectively (p < 0.001). The mean number of recommended elements for quality IBD colonoscopy reporting was significantly increased after the app implementation (4.3 vs. 1.9, p < 0.001). Diagnosis of ulcerative colitis, gastroenterologist as endoscopist, endoscopist with IBD clinical interest, and the implementation of the educational mobile app were independently associated with the inclusion of an IBD score in the colonoscopy report.

CONCLUSION

The inclusion of scoring systems and recommended elements for quality IBD colonoscopy report significantly increased after the implementation of an educational mobile app. E-health technologies should be further explored to improve quality of care in patients with IBD.

Validation of scoring systems for the prediction of complicated appendicitis in adults using clinical and computed tomographic findings

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to evaluate scoring systems for predicting complicated appendicitis in adults diagnosed with acute appendicitis on computed tomography.

METHODS

Three hundred twenty-five consecutive adult patients (mean age 51.9 ± 19.6 years, 212 women) diagnosed with acute appendicitis on computed tomography were retrospectively included. Clinical and imaging findings were compared between patients with and without complicated appendicitis, and independent associations were identified. As C-reactive protein was not available for most patients, 5 out of 8 scoring systems were modified. They, and a newly proposed system, were compared via area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC), Additionally, the latter was internally validated. Pairwise comparison was performed, and diagnostic performance of these scoring systems was obtained.

RESULTS

One hundred twenty-seven patients (36.8%) had complicated appendicitis. Significant independent associations were found between complicated appendicitis and duration of symptoms > 12 h, appendicolith, periappendiceal fat stranding, periappendiceal fluid, and extraluminal air (p values < 0.001 to 0.037; AUCs of 0.824-0.829). AUCs of 9 scoring systems ranged from 0.692 to 0.831. Of these, modified Atema, Kim HY, and proposed scores had similarly high and non-significantly different AUCs (0.793-0.831) on pairwise comparison. Their sensitivities, specificities, and accuracies were 73.0-90.6%, 48.5-70.6%, and 64.3-72.3%, respectively. Internal validity test demonstrated high AUCs (0.826-0.844) with one of the proposed scores using odds ratio having 100% sensitivity and 100% negative predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

Few scoring systems, including proposed ones, had high AUCs, sensitivity, and reasonable specificities, which could potentially aid in safely selecting adult patients with acute appendicitis for nonoperative management.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The study suggests few scoring systems for predicting complicated appendicitis with high AUCs and reasonable sensitivities, potentially aiding in selecting patients for nonoperative management.

KEY POINTS

• The study evaluated existing and proposed new scoring systems to predict complicated appendicitis in adults with acute appendicitis on computed tomography. • Several factors were found to be significantly associated with complicated appendicitis, including duration of symptoms, appendicolith, periappendiceal fat stranding, periappendiceal fluid, and extraluminal air. • The modified Atema, Kim HY, and newly proposed scoring systems performed well, potentially aiding in nonoperative management selection.

Diagnostic value of serum CA125 combined with PET/CT in ovarian cancer and tuberculous peritonitis in female patients

PURPOSE

To evaluate the diagnostic value of serum CA125 combined with 18F-FDG PET/CT in ovarian cancer (OC) and tuberculous peritonitis (TBP) in female patients and to establish a diagnostic scoring system.

METHOD

A total of 86 female patients (64 OC and 22 TBP) were included in this study. Serum CA125, PET/CT maximal intensity projection (MIP), maximal standardized uptake value, ovarian mass, ascites volume, and other indicators were analyzed and a diagnostic scoring system was established according to the weights of statistically significant indicators.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that serum CA125 in OC and TBP patients were 2079.9 ± 1651.3 U/mL and 448.3 ± 349.5 U/mL (P < 0.001). In MIP images, abdominal lesions were focal distribution in 92.2% (59/64) of OC patients and diffuse distribution in 95.5% (21/22) of TBP patients (P < 0.001). Ovarian masses could be observed in 82.8% (53/64) OC patients and 31.8% (7/22) TBP patients (P <0.001). The other indicators were not statistically significant. Logistic regression analysis showed that serum CA125 and MIP were independent risk factors for diagnosis. A diagnostic scoring system could be established based on serum CA125, MIP and ovarian mass, and the diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 98.4% (63/64), 95.5% (21/22), 97.7% (84/86), 98.4% (63/64), and 95.5% (21/22), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Serum CA125 combined with PET/CT is of great value in the diagnosis of OC and TBP. A simple and efficient diagnostic scoring system can be established using serum CA125, MIP image feature, and ovarian mass.

Predictive value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio combined with CA199 levels in postoperative survival of patients with gastric cancer: A retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new scoring system based on platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and CA199 to predict the prognosis of gastric cancer.

METHODS

PLR-CA199 was identified in a retrospective study that was conducted in a training cohort of 990 gastric cancer patients who underwent curable resection from 2012 to 2014 and validated in a validation cohort of 625 patients between 2015 and 2016.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, PLR-CA199 was related to gender (P = 0.041), age (P = 0.014), tumor location (P = 0.015), tumor size (P < 0.001), Bormann type (P < 0.001), vascular invasion (P < 0.001), perineural invasion (P < 0.001), and TNM staging (P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, PLR-CA199 was related to tumor size (P < 0.001), Bormann type (P = 0.007), vascular invasion (P < 0.001), perineural invasion (P < 0.001), and TNM staging (P < 0.001). Survival analysis showed that in the training cohort the mean disease-free survival (DFS) was 70.699 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 0, 51.223 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 1, and 32.152 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 2 (P < 0.001). The correlation between PLR-CA199 and DFS was further confirmed in the validation cohort (50.640 vs. 41.842 vs. 22.382, P < 0.001). Survival analysis showed that the mean disease special survival (DSS) was 76.668 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 0, 61.218 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 1, and 44.665 months for patients PLR-CA199 = 2 in the training cohort (P < 0.001). The correlation between PLR-CA199 and DSS was further confirmed in the validation cohort (53.858 vs. 46.385 vs. 44.665, P < 0.001). Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses showed that PLR-CA199 was an independent prognostic factor for DFS and DSS.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative PLR-CA199 may be a useful prognostic indicator, and is a promising tool for predicting the prognosis for gastric cancer.

The ICU-CARB score: a novel clinical scoring system to predict carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria carriage in critically ill patients upon ICU admission

BACKGROUND

With the widespread spread of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) in medical facilities, the carriage of CR-GNB among critically ill patients has become a significant concern in intensive care units (ICU). This study aimed to develop a scoring system to identify CR-GNB carriers upon ICU admission.

METHODS

Consecutive critically ill patients admitted to the ICU of Shanghai Ruijin Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020 were included. The patients were then divided into training and testing datasets at a 7:3 ratio. Parameters associated with CR-GNB carriage were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Each parameter was assigned a numerical score ranging from 0 to 100 using logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, a four-tier risk-level system was developed based on the cumulative scores, and assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Of the 1736 patients included in this study, the prevalence of CR-GNB carriage was 10.60%. The clinical scoring system including seven variables (neurological disease, high-risk department history, length of stay ≥ 14 days, ICU history, invasive mechanical ventilation, gastrointestinal tube placement, and carbapenem usage) exhibited promising predictive capabilities. Patients were then stratified using the scoring system, resulting in CR-GNB carriage rates of 2.4%, 12.0%, 36.1%, and 57.9% at the respective risk levels (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the AUC of the developed model in the training set was calculated to be 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86), while internal validation yielded an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

The ICU-CARB Score serves as a straightforward and precise tool that enables prompt evaluation of the risk of CR-GNB carriage at the time of ICU admission, thereby facilitating the timely implementation of targeted pre-emptive isolation.

Clinical feasibility of endovascular recanalization with intravascular ultrasound-guided wiring for chronic total occlusion of below-the-knee arteries

BACKGROUND

Revascularization with endovascular therapy (EVT) for complex below-the-knee (BTK) chronic total occlusion (CTO) remains a challenging problem. The Japanese-BTK (J-BTK) CTO score is reported as an indicator of the difficulty of BTK CTO, with the guidewire (GW) passage success rate decreasing as the grade increases. We previously reported an effective GW crossing method for the intravascular ultrasound (IVUS)-guided parallel wiring of complex BTK CTO. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of EVT using IVUS-guided wiring for BTK CTO.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single center, retrospective study analyzed 65 consecutive BTK CTO vessels in which IVUS-guided wiring was attempted after the failure of a conventional antegrade wiring approach from November 2020 to November 2022. The primary endpoint was the clinical success of the target CTO vessel. The secondary endpoints were the GW success rate per grade based on the J-BTK CTO score, number of GW used for CTO crossing, fluoroscopy time, and complications.

RESULTS

Target vessels were the anterior tibial artery (66.2% of cases), peroneal artery (9.2%), and posterior tibial artery (24.6%). Blunt type CTO entry was performed in 55.4% of cases, calcification of entry was observed in 24.6% of cases, the mean occlusion length was 228.2 ± 93.7 mm, mean reference vessel diameter was 2.1 ± 0.71 mm, and outflow was absent in 38.5% of cases. J-BTK CTO scores of 0/1 (grade A), 2/3 (grade B), 4/5 (grade C), and 6 (grade D) were seen in 18.5%, 43.1%, 36.3%, and 1.5% of cases, respectively. The clinical success rate was 95.4%. The GW success rate by J-BTK CTO grade was as follows: grade A (100%), B (100%), C (91.7%), and D (0%). The mean number of GW used was 3.4 ± 1.4, the mean fluoroscopy time was 72.3 ± 32.5 min, and complications occurred in 7.7% of cases.

CONCLUSION

This study showed a very high clinical success rate despite the difficulty of BTK CTO. IVUS-guided EVT might be a feasible strategy for complex BTK CTO.

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Surgical quality and prospective quality control of the D2-gastrectomy for gastric cancer in the multicenter randomized LOGICA-trial

BACKGROUND

Quality of gastric cancer surgery is crucial for favorable prognosis. Generally, prospective trials lack quality control measures. This study assessed surgical quality and a novel D2-lymphadenectomy photo-scoring in the LOGICA-trial.

METHODS

The multicenter LOGICA-trial randomized laparoscopic versus open total/distal D2-gastrectomy for resectable gastric cancer (cT1-4aN0-3M0) in 10 Dutch hospitals. During the trial, two reviewers prospectively analyzed intraoperative photographs of dissected nodal stations for quality control, and provided centers weekly feedback on their D2-lymphadenectomy, as continuous quality-enhancing incentive. After the trial, these photographs were reanalyzed to develop a photo-scoring for future trials, rating the D2-lymphadenectomy dissection quality (optimal-good-suboptimal-unevaluable). Interobserver variability was calculated (weighted kappa). Regression analyses related the photo-scoring to nodal yield, recurrence and 5-years survival.

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2018, 212 patients underwent total/distal D2-gastrectomy (n = 122/n = 90), and 158 (75%) received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. R0-resection rate was 95%. Rate of ≥15 retrieved lymph nodes was 95%. Moderate agreement was obtained in stations 8 + 9 (κ = 0.522), 11p/11d (κ = 0.446) and 12a (κ = 0.441). Consensus was reached for discordant cases (30%). Stations 8 + 9, 11p/11d and 12a were rated 'optimal' in 76%, 63% and 68%. Laparoscopic photographs could be rated better than open (2% versus 12% 'unevaluable'; 73% versus 50% 'optimal'; p = 0.042). The photo-scoring did not show associations with nodal yield (p = 0.214), recurrence (p = 0.406) and survival (p = 0.988).

CONCLUSIONS

High radicality and nodal yield demonstrated good quality of D2-gastrectomy. The prospective quality control probably contributed to this. The photo-scoring did not show good performance, but can be refined. Laparoscopic D2-gastrectomy was better suited for standardized surgical photo-evaluation than open surgery.

ASARA, a prediction model based on Child-Pugh class in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Due to the high heterogeneity among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), the prognosis of patients varies significantly. The decision-making on the initiation and/or repetition of TACE under different liver functions is a matter of concern in clinical practice. Thus, we aimed to develop a prediction model for TACE candidates using risk stratification based on varied liver function.

METHODS

A total of 222 unresectable HCC patients who underwent TACE as their only treatment were included in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to select the independent risk factors and establish a predictive model for the overall survival (OS). The model was validated in patients with different Child-Pugh class and compared to previous TACE scoring systems.

RESULTS

The five independent risk factors, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, maximal tumor size, the increase of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade score, tumor response, and the increase of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), were used to build a prognostic model (ASARA). In the training and validation cohorts, the OS of patients with ASARA score ≤ 2 was significantly higher than that of patients with ASARA score > 2 (P < 0.001, P = 0.006, respectively). The ASARA model and its modified version "AS(ARA)" can effectively distinguish the OS (P < 0.001, P = 0.004) between patients with Child-Pugh class A and B, and the C-index was 0.687 and 0.706, respectively. For repeated TACE, the ASARA model was superior to Assessment for Retreatment with TACE (ART) and ALBI grade, maximal tumor size, AFP, and tumor response (ASAR) among Child-Pugh class A patients. For the first TACE, the performance of AS(ARA) was better than that of modified hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (mHAP), mHAP3, and ASA(R) models among Child-Pugh class B patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASARA scoring system is valuable in the decision-making of TACE repetition for HCC patients, especially Child-Pugh class A patients. The modified AS(ARA) can be used to screen the ideal candidate for TACE initiation in Child-Pugh class B patients with poor liver function.

The Sheen Paajanen grOin Recommended Treatment 'SPoRT' score for groin pain

INTRODUCTION

Evaluating groin pain still evades many clinicians at times as they have difficulty determining the cause of pain when no true hernia exists. This study's aim was to evaluate a simple and novel scoring system which is reproducible, to help determine whether conservative measures or surgery is recommended for the management of groin pain attributable to inguinal disruption.

MATERIAL & METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all patients from 2018 to 2020 that underwent surgery or conservative management for inguinal disruption with at least a 1-year follow-up were evaluated. The scoring system is based on MRI and ultrasound imaging as well as clinical findings, with scores given from - 2 to + 2 based on the defined findings listed. A maximum total of four points scored for each assessment was used. Sensitivity and specificity analysis was conducted for each potential score cut off point.

RESULTS

A total of 172 patients were evaluated with 33 patients (19%) undergoing conservative management and 139 patients (81%) undergoing surgery. The median SPoRT score for the surgery group was 2.0 (1.0, 3.0), and - 1.0 (- 3.0, 0.0) in the physiotherapy group which was a significant difference (p < 0.001). An optimal cut off of ≤ 0 for physio and ≥ 1 for surgery was established, yielding a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI 75.7%-98.1%), a specificity of 89.2% (95% CI 82.8%-93.8%) and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.936 (95% CI 0.874-0.997).

DISCUSSION

SPoRT score of ≤ 0 can recommend a patient should undergo conservative measures or physiotherapy as a mainstay of treatment with a score of ≥ 1 recommending surgery. Further validation of the score is necessary.

The effect of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma after liver resection based on risk stratification

BACKGROUND

There is currently no standard adjuvant treatment proven to prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. Recent studies suggest that postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) is beneficial for patients at high risk of tumor recurrence. However, it is difficult to select the patients. The present study aimed to develop an easy-to-use score to identify these patients.

METHODS

A total of 4530 patients undergoing liver resection were recruited. Independent risk factors were identified by Cox regression model in the training cohort and the Primary liver cancer big data transarterial chemoembolization (PDTE) scoring system was established.

RESULTS

The scoring system was composed of ten risk factors including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, operative bleeding loss, resection margin, tumor capsular, satellite nodules, tumor size and number, and microvascular and macrovascular invasion. Using 5 points as risk stratification, the patients with PA-TACE had higher recurrence-free survival (RFS) compared with non-TACE in > 5 points group (P < 0.001), whereas PA-TACE patients had lower RFS compared with non-TACE in ≤ 5 points group (P = 0.013). In the training and validation cohorts, the C-indexes of PDTE scoring system were 0.714 [standard errors (SE) = 0.010] and 0.716 (SE = 0.018), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The model is a simple tool to identify PA-TACE for HCC patients after liver resection with a favorable performance. Patients with > 5 points may benefit from PA-TACE.

FedScore: A privacy-preserving framework for federated scoring system development

OBJECTIVE

We propose FedScore, a privacy-preserving federated learning framework for scoring system generation across multiple sites to facilitate cross-institutional collaborations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The FedScore framework includes five modules: federated variable ranking, federated variable transformation, federated score derivation, federated model selection and federated model evaluation. To illustrate usage and assess FedScore's performance, we built a hypothetical global scoring system for mortality prediction within 30 days after a visit to an emergency department using 10 simulated sites divided from a tertiary hospital in Singapore. We employed a pre-existing score generator to construct 10 local scoring systems independently at each site and we also developed a scoring system using centralized data for comparison.

RESULTS

We compared the acquired FedScore model's performance with that of other scoring models using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The FedScore model achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.763 across all sites, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.020. We also calculated the average AUC values and SDs for each local model, and the FedScore model showed promising accuracy and stability with a high average AUC value which was closest to the one of the pooled model and SD which was lower than that of most local models.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that FedScore is a privacy-preserving scoring system generator with potentially good generalizability.

Development and Validation of a Novel Score to Predict Mortality in Stevens-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis: CRISTEN

BACKGROUND

Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are life-threatening, severe mucocutaneous adverse reactions. Severity prediction at early onset is urgently required for treatment. However, previous prediction scores have been based on data of blood tests.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to present a novel score that predicts mortality in patients with SJS/TEN in the early stages based on only clinical information.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 382 patients with SJS/TEN in a development study. A clinical risk score for TEN (CRISTEN) was created according to the association of potential risk factors with death. We calculated the sum of these risk factors using CRISTEN, and this was validated in a multinational survey of 416 patients and was compared with previous scoring systems.

RESULTS

The significant risk factors for death in SJS/TEN comprised 10 items, including patients' age of ≥65 years, ≥10% body surface area involvement, the use of antibiotics as culprit drugs, the use of systemic corticosteroid therapy before the onset, and mucosal damage affecting the ocular, buccal, and genital mucosa. Renal impairment, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasm, and bacterial infection were included as underlying diseases. The CRISTEN model showed good discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.884) and calibration. In the validation study, the AUC was 0.827, which was statistically comparable to those of previous systems.

CONCLUSION

A scoring system based on only clinical information was developed to predict mortality in SJS/TEN and was validated in an independent multinational study. CRISTEN may predict individual survival probabilities and direct the management and therapy of patients with SJS/TEN.

Preoperative Scoring System for Prediction of Early Adjacent Vertebral Body Fracture After Balloon Kyphoplasty Using X-Rays Taken in a Non-Weight-Bearing Position

BACKGROUND

Prevention of adjacent vertebral body fracture (AVF) following balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) is a key challenge. The objective of this study was to develop a scoring system that could be more extensively and effectively used to determine the surgical indications for BKP.

METHODS

The study involved 101 patients aged 60 years or older who had undergone BKP. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for early AVF within 2 months following BKP. Scoring was based on the odds ratio for risk factors, and cut-off values were determined from the receiver operating characteristics curve. The correlation between the total scores and the incidence of early AVF, and the area under the curve for the logistic regression model predicting early AVF using the scoring system were investigated.

RESULTS

29 cases (28.7%) experienced early AVF after BKP. The scoring system was created as follows: 1) age (<75 years: 0 points (P), ≥75 years: 1P), 2) number of previous vertebral fractures (0: 0P, 1 or more: 2P), and 3) local kyphosis (<7°: 0P, ≥7°: 1P). The total scores were found to be positively correlated with the incidence of early AVF (r = 0.976, P = 0.004). The area under the curve of the scoring system for predicting early AVF was 0.796. The incidence of early AVF was 4.2% at ≤1P and 44.3% at ≥2P (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A scoring system which can be applied to a broader patient population was developed. In cases where the total score is 2P or more, alternatives to BKP should be considered.

Systemic immune-inflammation index combined with quick sequential organ failure assessment score for predicting mortality in sepsis patients

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic ability of systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) combine with quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) criteria in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom sepsis was confirmed. Clinical and laboratory data recorded were analyzed. The score of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), SII, qSOFA were calculated. Multivariable regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and Kaplan-Meier method were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among SOFA, qSOFA, and the combination of SII with qSOFA.

Results

A total of 349 patients admitted from December 2020 and December 2022 were included in the cohort. 95 (27.2%) of whom had died by day 28. The SII, SOFA, and qSOFA scores were significant higher in the non-survivors than that of survivors (P < 0.05), and identified as independent predictors of sepsis mortality. The addition of SII to qSOFA shown an area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.840 (95% CI: 0.787-0.884), manifested an effective ability in predicting poor outcome than other scoring systems. The optimum cutoff for SII (>1.7668) and qSOFA (>1) represented a high risk level in 28-day mortality of sepsis, were performed and identified in Kaplan-Meier survival curves (log-rank test, HR: 6.942, 95% CI: 3.976-12.121; P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

The SII in addition to qSOFA provided an effective prognostic tool for predicting mortality in sepsis.

A novel scoring system incorporating sarcopenia to predict postoperative survival in spinal metastasis

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

As the prevalence of spinal metastasis rises, methods to predict survival will become increasingly important for clinical decision-making. Sarcopenia may be used to predict survival in these patients.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study to develop a prediction model incorporating sarcopenia for postoperative survival in patients with spinal metastasis.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

PATIENT SAMPLE

This study included 200 patients who underwent operative intervention for spinal metastasis in our institution, a tertiary, academic spine center.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was 1-year postoperative survival. The secondary outcome measures were 3-month and 6-month postoperative survival.

METHODS

Clinicopathological and survivorship data was collated. Sarcopenia was defined using the L3 Psoas/Vertebral Body Ratio on cross-sectional CT. Independent predictors of postoperative survival were assessed by multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall 1-year postoperative survival was 50%. L3/Psoas ratio ≥1.5 (OR 6.2), albumin ≥35g/l (OR 3.0) and primary tumor type were found to be independent predictors of 3 month, 6 month and 1 year postoperative survival on multivariable analysis. Age at surgery, ambulatory status and mode of presentation were not independent predictors of survival. Variables were used to generate a new scoring system, ProgMets, to predict postoperative survival. The ProgMets system had greater correlation and higher area under the curve (AUC, 0.80) for 1-year survival than other scoring systems.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first model to incorporate sarcopenia to predict survival in spinal metastasis patients and has good prediction of survival compared to previous models. This tool may be increasingly useful for informed decision making for patients and surgeons.

Application of a preoperative scoring system for small liver lesions in predicting small hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The treatment of small hepatocellular carcinoma (SHCC) is mainly based on surgical procedures, and early treatment can significantly improve the prognosis. How to improve the diagnostic rate of SHCC in patients with small liver lesions is a challenge faced by clinical doctors. Therefore, assessing the risk of SHCC in patients with small liver lesions and taking corresponding intervention measures are crucial for prolonging patient survival.

AIM

To evaluate the application value of a preoperative scoring system for small liver lesions established based on common clinical indicators in the clinical diagnosis of SHCC.

METHODS

The clinical data of 243 patients with small liver lesions who underwent surgery at our hospital from November 2014 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the variables with significant differences between the two groups of patients, and the weights of the main risk factors were assigned according to the screened values. A preoperative scoring system for small liver lesions was established. Finally, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate its efficacy in the diagnosis of SHCC.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that four variables, including viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, preoperative AFP level elevation, and imaging diagnosis of malignant tumor, were significantly associated with the occurrence of SHCC (P < 0.05). ROC analysis showed that the accuracy of the preoperative scoring system for small liver lesions in the diagnosis of malignant tumors was 0.864, and the cut-off value was 3.5. Based on the distribution of scores and ROC analysis results of the two groups of patients, the risk of developing SHCC in patients can be graded and analyzed.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative scoring system of small liver lesions has good efficacy for early diagnosis of benign and malignant small liver lesions.

New objective scoring system to clinically assess fecal incontinence

BACKGROUND

Several scoring systems are used to assess fecal incontinence (FI), among which, the most commonly used are Wexner and Vaizey's scoring systems. However, there are significant lacunae in these scoring systems, due to which they are neither accurate nor comprehensive.

AIM

To develop a new scoring system for FI that is accurate, comprehensive, and easy to use.

METHODS

A pro forma was made in which six types of FI were included: solid, liquid, flatus, mucous, stress, and urge. The weight for each FI was determined by asking a group of patients and laypersons to give a disability score to each type of FI from 0 to 100 (0- least, 100- maximum disability). The disability was assessed on a modified EQ-5D+ (EuroQol) description system, 4D3L (4 dimensions and 3 levels) for each FI. The average score of each FI was calculated, divided by 10, and rounded off to determine the weight of each FI type. The scores for the three levels of frequency of each FI were assigned as never = 0 (No episode of FI ever), occasional = 1 (≤ 1 episode of FI/ wk), and common = 2 (> 1 episode of FI/ wk), and was termed as frequency score. The score for each FI would be derived by multiplying the frequency score and the weight for that FI type. In the second phase of the study, a group of colorectal surgeons was asked to rank the six FI types in order of severity, and their ranking was compared with the patient and laypersons' rankings.

RESULTS

Fifty patients and 50 laypersons participated in the study. The weight was assigned to each FI (solid-8, liquid-8, urge-7, flatus-6, mucus-6, and stress-5), and an new scoring system was formulated. The maximum possible score was 80 (total incontinence), and the least 0 (no incontinence). The surgeons' ranking of FI severity did not correlate well with patients' and laypersons' rankings of FI, highlighting that surgeons and patients may perceive the severity of FI differently.

CONCLUSION

A new scoring system for FI was formulated, which was simple, logical, comprehensive, and easy to use, and eliminated previous shortcomings. Patients' and surgeons' perceptions of FI severity of FI did not correlate well.

Prognostic Models in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by severe hepatic dysfunction leading to multiorgan failure in patients with end-stage liver disease. ACLF is a challenging clinical syndrome with a rapid clinical course and high short-term mortality. There is no single uniform definition of ACLF or consensus in predicting ACLF-related outcomes, which makes comparing studies difficult and standardizing management protocols challenging. This review aims to provide insights into the common prognostic models that define and grade ACLF.

Factors influencing early obliteration during flow diverter treatment of cerebral aneurysms: Establishment of an early obliteration inhibition score

OBJECTIVE

This retrospective study aimed to investigate factors associated with inhibition of early aneurysm obliteration after flow diverter (FD) treatment. We also created the early obliteration inhibition (EOI) score for pre-operative evaluation.

METHODS

We examined 110 cerebral aneurysms in 104 patients who underwent FD treatment. The following parameters were investigated: age, sex, symptoms, aneurysm location and type, maximum aneurysm diameter, parent vessel diameter, neck diameter, and dome-neck ratio. We also noted aneurysm location relative to the curvature of the parent artery and any branches arising from the aneurysm dome. Procedural factors such as FD diameter and length, number of FDs placed, type of FD, and use of adjunctive coiling were also investigated. Aneurysm obliteration was evaluated using digital subtraction angiography 3 months after the procedure. Adequate obliteration was defined as grade C or D on the O'Kelly-Marotta scale.

RESULTS

The following factors inhibited early obliteration: 1) extradural location, 2) saccular aneurysm, 3) aneurysm neck located at the outer convexity of the parent artery, and 4) arterial branch arising from the aneurysm dome. Odds ratios were used to create an EOI score. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off EOI score for adequate obliteration was 1.5 (area under the curve, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.9; sensitivity, 0.9; specificity, 0.57).

CONCLUSION

The EOI score, which is based on factors that inhibit early obliteration, may predict early treatment outcomes of FD placement.

Differential diagnosis of lymphoma with 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with fever of unknown origin accompanied by lymphadenopathy

PURPOSE

To investigate the value of 18F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) in the differential diagnosis of lymphoma in patients with fever of unknown origin (FUO) accompanied by lymphadenopathy and to develop a simple scoring system to distinguish lymphoma from other etiologies.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted on patients with classic FUO accompanied by lymphadenopathy. After standard diagnostic procedures, including PET/CT scan and lymph-node biopsy, 163 patients were enrolled and divided into lymphoma and benign groups according to the etiology. The diagnostic utility of PET/CT imaging was evaluated, and beneficial parameters that could improve diagnostic effectiveness were identified.

RESULTS

The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of PET/CT in diagnosing lymphoma in patients with FUO accompanied by lymphadenopathy were 81.0, 47.6, 59.3, and 72.7%, respectively. The lymphoma prediction model combining high SUVmax of the "hottest" lesion, high SUVmax of the retroperitoneal lymph nodes, old age, low platelet count, and low ESR had an area under the curve of 0.93 (0.89-0.97), a sensitivity of 84.8%, a specificity of 92.9%, a PPV of 91.8%, and an NPV of 86.7%. There was a lower probability of lymphoma for patients with a score < 4 points.

CONCLUSIONS

PET/CT scans show moderate sensitivity and low specificity in diagnosing lymphoma in patients with FUO accompanied by lymphadenopathy. The scoring system based on PET/CT and clinical parameters performs well in differentiating lymphoma and benign causes and can be used as a reliable noninvasive tool.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

This study on FUO was registered on http://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov on January 14, 2014, with registration number NCT02035670.

A Review of the Scoring and Assessment of Keratosis Pilaris

Disease severity assessment tools play a large part in evaluating skin conditions in dermatology. Currently, there is no existing validated assessment tool for keratosis pilaris (KP), a benign yet highly prevalent follicular disorder. A range of proposed scoring tools have been used in different clinical trials for the assessment of potential treatments for KP. A literature review of the current scoring systems used for KP shows that there is a lack of consistency with most studies using varying versions of unvalidated investigator global assessment (IGA) scores and quartile grading systems. A review of these studies shows that current methods of evaluating KP in clinical trials are subjective, unreliable, and inconsistent. A standardised and validated scoring system would be significant as it could be used in clinical trials to advance the current knowledge of KP.

A Chinese scoring system for predicting successful retrograde collateral traverse in patients with chronic total coronary occlusion

BACKGROUND

Retrograde approach technique has been challenging in percutaneous coronary interventional treatment of chronic total occlusion (CTO) coronary disease. The present study endeavors to determine a novel Chinese scoring system for predicting successful collateral channels traverse via retrograde approach.

METHODS

The demographic characteristics and angiographic characteristics of 309 CTO patient were analyzed by univariable and multivariable analysis for selecting potential predictors. And the nomogram was used to establish the scoring system. Then it was evaluated by the internal and external validation.

RESULTS

The predictors of Age, Connections between collateral channels and recipient vessels, and Channel Tortuosity (ACT) were identified with univariable and multivariable analysis and employed to the ACT score system. With acceptable calibrations, the area under curve of the scoring system and the external validation were 0.826 and 0.816 respectively. Based on score, the predictors were divided into three risk categories and it showed a consistent prediction power in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel Chinese ACT score is a reliable tool for predicting successful retrograde collateral traverse.

[Research progress on the histological scoring system for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease]

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has replaced chronic hepatitis B as the most common chronic liver disease in China and has now been renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). The Brunt, the American NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH-CRN), the European Steatosis, Activity, and Fibrosis/Fatty Liver Inhibition of Progression (SAF/FLIP), and the Pediatric NAFLD are currently the four semi-quantitative grading systems for histological evaluation. This paper reviews these four scoring systems for the clinical selection of appropriate systems for diagnosis and prognosis assessment. This article is a review, and in order to coordinate the evaluation criteria of various scoring systems, the old name "NAFLD" is used.

A simple scoring system for the prediction of early pregnancy loss developed by following 13,977 infertile patients after in vitro fertilization

A retrospective study was conducted to investigate a convenient simple scoring system for the prediction of early pregnancy loss (EPL) based on simple demographics. A total of 13,977 women undergoing transvaginal ultrasound scans on Days 27-29 after in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET) from June 2016 and December 2017 were included. The first trimester pregnancy outcome was recorded at 12 weeks of gestation. The areas under the curve of this scoring system were 0.884 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.870-0.899) and 0.890 (95% CI 0.878-0.903) in the training set and test set, respectively. The score totals ranged from -8 to 14 points. A score of 5 points, which offered the highest predictive accuracy (94.01%) and corresponded to a 30% miscarriage risk, was chosen as the cutoff value, with a sensitivity of 62.84%, specificity of 98.79%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 88.87% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.54% for the prediction of EPL in the training set. In the test set, a score of 5 points had a sensitivity of 64.69%, specificity of 98.78%, PPV of 89.87% and NPV of 93.62%, and 93.91% of the cases were correctly predicted. Therefore, the simple scoring system using conventionally collected data can be conveniently used to predict EPL after ET. However, considering the limitations, its predictive value needs to be further verified in future clinical practice.

An adjusted Asia-Pacific colorectal screening score system to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Chinese patients

PURPOSE

The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score and its derivatives have been used to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN). However, it remains unknown whether they apply to the current Chinese population in general clinical practice. Therefore, we aimed to update the APCS score system by applying data from two independent asymptomatic populations to predict the risk of ACN in China.

METHODS

We developed an adjusted APCS (A-APCS) score by using the data of asymptomatic Chinese patients undergoing colonoscopies from January 2014 to December 2018. Furthermore, we validated this system in another cohort of 812 patients who underwent screening colonoscopy between January and December 2021. The discriminative calibration ability of the A-APCS and APCS scores was comparatively evaluated.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to assess the risk factors for ACN, and an adjusted scoring system of 0 to 6.5 points was schemed according to the results. Utilizing the developed score, 20.2%, 41.2%, and 38.6% of patients in the validation cohort were classified as average, moderate, and high risk, respectively. The corresponding ACN incidence rates were 1.2%, 6.0%, and 11.1%, respectively. In addition, the A-APCS score (c-statistics: 0.68 for the derivation and 0.80 for the validation cohort) showed better discriminative power than using predictors of APCS alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The A-APCS score may be simple and useful in clinical applications for predicting ACN risk in China.

Predictive value of the Trauma Rating Index in Age, Glasgow Coma Scale, Respiratory rate and Systolic blood pressure score (TRIAGES) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) for the short-term mortality of patients with isolated traumatic brain injury: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Ensuring rapid and precise mortality prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) at the emergency department (ED) is paramount in patient triage and enhancing their outcomes. We aimed to estimate and compare the predictive power of the Trauma Rating Index in Age, Glasgow Coma Scale, Respiratory rate, and Systolic blood pressure score (TRIAGES) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) for 24-h in-hospital mortality in patients with isolated TBI.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective single-center study analyzing clinical data from 1156 patients with isolated acute TBI treated in the ED of the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020. We calculated each patient's TRIAGES and RTS scores and estimated their predictive value for short-term mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

87 patients (7.53%) died within 24 h of admission. The non-survival group had higher TRIAGES and lower RTS than the survival group. Compared to non-survivors, survivors exhibited higher Glasgow Coma Scale scores (GCS) with a median score of 15 (12, 15) compared to a median score of 4.0 (3.0, 6.0). The crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for TRIAGES were 1.79, 95% CI (1.62 to 1.98) and 1.79, 95% CI (1.60 to 2.00), respectively. The crude and adjusted ORs for RTS were 0.39, 95% CI (0.33 to 0.45) and 0.40, 95% CI (0.34 to 0.47), respectively. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curve of TRIAGES, RTS, and GCS was 0.865 (0.844 to 0.884), 0.863 (0.842 to 0.882), and 0.869 (0.830 to 0.909), respectively. The optimal cut-off values for predicting 24-h in-hospital mortality were 3 for TRIAGES, 6.08 for RTS, and 8 for GCS. The subgroup analysis showed a higher AUROC in TRIAGES (0.845) compared to GCS (0.836) and RTS (0.829) among patients aged 65 and above, although the difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

TRIAGES and RTS have shown promising efficacy in predicting 24-h in-hospital mortality in patients with isolated TBI, with comparable performance to GCS. However, improving the comprehensiveness of assessment does not necessarily translate into an overall increase in predictive ability.

A predictive scoring system for postoperative delirium in the elderly patients with intertrochanteric fracture

OBJECTIVE

To establish a scoring system to predict the postoperative delirium in elderly patients with intertrochanteric fracture.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 159 elderly patients with a diagnosis of intertrochanteric fracture and underwent closed reduction and intramedullary nail fixation, and then divided them into two groups including the delirium group (23 cases) or non-delirium group (136 cases) in our hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. The following clinical characteristics were recorded and analyzed: age, gender, fracture classification, body mass index (BMI), history of diabetes mellitus, history of stroke, preoperative albumin, preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), preoperative arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO₂), time between admission and surgery, lower limb thrombosis, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, operative time, operative blood loss, and intraoperative blood transfusion. The prevalence of these clinical characteristics in delirium group was evaluated, and the scoring system was established using logistic regression analysis. The performance of the scoring system was also prospectively validated.

RESULTS

The predictive scoring system was based on five clinical characteristics confirmed as significant predictors of postoperative delirium, namely, age > 75 years, history of stroke, preoperative Hb ≤ 100 g/L, preoperative PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg, and time between admission to surgery > 3 days. Delirium group showed a significant higher score than non-delirium (6.26 vs. 2.29, P < 0.001), and the optimal cut-off value for the scoring system was 4 points. The sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for predicting postoperative delirium were 82.61% and 81.62% in derivation set, respectively, and 72.71% and 75.00% in validation set.

CONCLUSION

The predictive scoring system confirmed with achieve satisfactory sensitivity and specificity in predicting postoperative delirium in the elderly with intertrochanteric fracture. The risk of postoperative delirium in patients with the score of 5 to 11 is high, while the score of 0 to 4 is low.

Scoring system for predicting 90-day mortality of in-hospital liver cirrhosis patients at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease. Complications due to progression of liver disease may deteriorate the liver function and worsen prognosis. Previous studies have shown that patients with liver cirrhosis are at increased risk of death within 90-day after hospitalization. It is necessary to identify patients who are at higher risk of early mortality. This study aims to develop a scoring system to predict the 90-day mortality among hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis that could be used for modification of treatment plan according to the scores that have been obtained. By using this scoring system, crucial care of plans can be taken to reduce the risk of mortality.

METHOD

This prospective cohort study was conducted on hospitalized cirrhotic patients at Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded. Patients were monitored for up to 90-day after hospitalization to determine their condition. Cox regression analysis was performed to obtain predictor factors contributing to mortality in liver cirrhosis patients. The scoring system that resulted from this study categorized patients into low, moderate, and high-risk categories based on their predicted mortality rates. The sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system were evaluated using the AUC (area under the curve) metric.

RESULT

The study revealed that liver cirrhosis patients who were hospitalized had a 90-day mortality rate of 42.2%, with contributing factors including Child-Pugh, MELD, and leukocyte levels. The combination of these variables had a good discriminative value with an AUC of 0.921 (95% CI: 0.876-0.967). The scoring system resulted in three risk categories: low risk (score of 0-3) with a 4.1-18.4% probability of death, moderate risk (score of 5-6) with a 40.5-54.2% probability of death, and high risk (score of 8-11) with a 78.1-94.9% probability of death.

CONCLUSION

The scoring system has shown great accuracy in predicting 90-day mortality in hospitalized cirrhosis patients, making it a valuable tool for identifying the necessary care and interventions needed for these patients upon admission.