Risk Models for Mortality Following Elective Open and Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Single Institution Experience

Glasgow Aneurysm Score: a predictor of long-term mortality following endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm?

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the value of Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) in predicting long-term mortality and survival in patients who have undergone endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).

METHODS

A retrospective single-center study of 257 patients with non-ruptured AAA undergoing EVAR between January 2013 and 2021. GAS scores were compared between the survivors (group 1) and the long-term mortality (group 2) groups. Cox regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors of late mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the optimum cut-off values of GAS values to determine the effect on late-mortality. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier.

RESULTS

The study included 257 patients with a mean age of 69.75 ± 7.75 (46-92), who underwent EVAR due to AAA. Average follow up period was 18.98 ± 22.84 months (0-88). Fourty-five (17.8%) mortalities occured during long-term follow-up. A past medical history of cancer resulted in a 2.5 fold increase in risk of long-term mortality (OR: 2.52, 95% CI 1.10-5.76; p = 0.029). GAS values were higher in group 2 compared to group 1 (81.02 ± 10.33 vs. 73.73 ± 10.46; p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve for GAS was 0.682 and the GAS cut-off value was 77.5 (specificity 64%, p < 0.001). The mortality rates in patients with GAS < 77.5 and GAS > 77.5 were: 12.8% and 24.8% respectively (p = 0.014). Every 10 point increase in GAS resulted in approximately a 2 fold increase in risk of long-term mortality (OR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.5; p < 0.001). Five year survival rates in patients with GAS < 77.5 and > 77.5 were 75.7% and 61.7%, respectively (p = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our study suggests that an increase in GAS score may predict long-term mortality. In addition, the mortality rates in patients above the GAS cut-off value almost doubled compared to those below. Furthermore, the presence of a past history of cancer resulted in a 2.5 fold increase in long-term mortality risk. Addition of cancer to the GAS scoring system may be considered in future studies. Further studies are necessary to consolidate these findings.

Outcomes of abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs: Endovascular aneurysm vs open surgical repairs

BACKGROUND

Operative mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has been reported as lower than open surgical repair (OSR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in randomized controlled trials. However, many cohort studies have demonstrated similar mortality rates for both procedures. We compared operative mortality between EVAR and OSR, at our institution.

METHODS

All AAA operations from 2012 to 2017 were reviewed, and baseline characteristics were collected. Outcomes included 30-day mortality, operative data, complications, length of hospital stay (LOS), costs, re-intervention, and survival rates were compared. A multivariable analysis with unbalanced characteristics was performed.

RESULTS

We had a total of 162 patients, 100 having OSR and 62 for EVAR. The EVAR group was older, with higher ASA classification. Thirty-day mortality rate did not significantly differ (0/100 for OSR and 2/62 (3%) for EVAR; p = 0.145), while the EVAR group had less blood loss, shorter operative times, and LOS, but higher re-intervention rates (adjusted hazard ratio 6.4 (95%CI: 1.4, 26.8)). Survival rates did not significantly differ between the groups. EVAR cost approximately 1-million yen more.

CONCLUSIONS

OSR had low 30-day mortality rate in selected low-risk patients whereas EVAR had less blood loss, shorter operative times, LOS and could be done in high-risk patients with low 30-day mortality but with higher re-intervention rate.

Differences in Comorbidities Between Women and Men Treated with Elective Repair for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is performed to prevent rupture. For reasons as yet unknown, the 30-day mortality risk after elective AAA repair is higher in women than in men. We hypothesised that this higher risk might be related to differences in comorbidity.

METHODS

Systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019133314) according to PRISMA guidelines. A search in the EMBASE/MEDLINE/CENTRAL databases identified 1870 studies that included patients who underwent elective AAA repair (final search February 17^th, 2021). Ultimately, 28 studies were included and all reported comorbidities were categorised into 17 comorbidity groups. Additionally, 15 groups of clearly defined comorbidities were used for sensitivity analysis. For both groups, meta-analyses of each comorbidity were performed to estimate the difference in pooled prevalence between women and men with a random effects model.

RESULTS

When analysing data of all reported comorbidities (17 groups), smoking [risk difference (RD) 11%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4-18], diabetes (RD 3%, 95% CI 2-4), ischaemic heart disease (RD 12%, 95% CI 8-16), arrhythmia (RD 3%, 95% CI 0.4-5), liver disease (RD 0.1%, 95% CI 0.01-0.2), and cancer (RD 3%, 95% CI 2-4)) were less prevalent in women, whereas, hypertension (RD 4%, 95% CI 3-6) and pulmonary disease (RD 4%, 95% CI 3-5) were more prevalent in women. At the time of surgery women were significantly older than men (74.9 years versus 72.4; mean difference 2.4 years (95% CI 2.1-2.7)). In the sensitivity analysis of 15 comorbidity groups, the same comorbidities remained significantly different between women and men, except smoking and arrhythmia. Women had a higher mortality risk than men (RD 1%, 95% CI 1-2).

CONCLUSIONS

Although women undergoing elective AAA repair have fewer baseline comorbidities than men, their 30-day mortality risk is higher. In-depth studies on the cause of death in women after elective AAA repair are needed to explain this discrepancy in mortality.

Predictors of Operative Mortality of 928 Intact Aortoiliac Aneurysms

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to identify preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with in-hospital mortality of intact abdominal aortoiliac aneurysm repair.

METHODS

In this observational study, prospectively collected information included demographics, risk factors, comorbidities, aneurysm characteristics (including special aneurysm presentation, i.e., inflammatory, mycotic/infected, aortocaval fistula), investigations, and operative variables. Receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) score was performed in the subgroup of bland aneurysms undergoing isolated elective repair.

RESULTS

A total of 928 cases with intact aortoiliac aneurysms had an elective (n = 882) or urgent (n = 46) repair, associated with an in-hospital mortality of 1.7% and 8.7%, respectively (P = 0.01). Open repair (n = 514) was a predictor of higher mortality (3.3% vs. 0.5% for endovascular aneurysm repair [EVAR], n = 414, odds ratio [OR] 7.1, P = 0.003), and so was the pre-EVAR era (4.8% vs. 1.3% in the EVAR era, OR 4.0, P = 0.004). Other significant predictors included the presence of abdominal/back pain (7.5% vs. 1.3%, OR = 6.0, P = 0.001), preoperative angiography (7% vs. 1.6%, OR = 4.5, P = 0.01), special aneurysm presentation (10.9% vs. 1.5%, OR = 8.1, P < 0.001), concomitant major procedures (19% vs. 1.7%, OR = 14.0, P < 0.001), serious intraoperative complications (9.1% vs. 1.5%, OR = 6.6, P = 0.001), median number of transfused units of blood intraoperatively (2 and 0 for cases with and without mortality, respectively, P < 0.001), and procedure duration (270 and 150 min for cases with and without mortality, respectively, P < 0.001). Open repair (OR = 4.5, P = 0.05), special aneurysm presentation (OR = 6.58, P = 0.001), and concomitant major procedures (OR = 14.3, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of higher mortality. ROC curve analysis for the GAS (P = 0.87) and VSGNE score (P = 0.10) failed to demonstrate statistical significance in the subgroup of bland aneurysms undergoing isolated elective repair.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has demonstrated independent risk factors for mortality, which should be considered when contemplating aortoiliac aneurysm repair. We failed to externally validate the GAS and VSGNE score.

Development of novel patient selection criteria for a short stay endovascular aneurysm repair pathway: Improving patient selection for short stay endovascular aneurysm repair

Objectives

A short-stay endovascular aneurysm repair (SS-EVAR) pathway for infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms offers the potential to improve service efficiency and patient satisfaction by reducing the hospital length of stay. This study aimed to determine whether the implementation of a novel set of patient selection criteria for a theoretical SS-EVAR pathway could facilitate an expansion of the proportion of suitable patients, whilst maintaining patient safety and limiting unplanned emergency readmissions.

Methods

Two SS-EVAR selection criteria (low and high risk) were generated based upon patient pre-operative comorbidities. The low risk criteria essentially selected fit and healthy individuals, whereas the high risk criteria included patients with a range of comorbidities that could still theoretically enable enrolment onto a SS-EVAR pathway. A retrospective analysis, whereby both criteria were applied to all elective EVARs recorded in the National Vascular Registry between 2013 and 2016 at a single tertiary vascular unit was performed. Rates and timings of postoperative complications, reinterventions and unplanned readmissions for patients meeting each criteria were assessed.

Results

In total, 188 patients were included (92% male, mean age 75.4 ± 7.2 years). Twenty-nine patients (15%) met the low risk criteria. Two (7%) of these experienced an inpatient complication which were both detected within 24 h of operation (including one who required reintervention), and no patients in this group had an unplanned readmission within 30 days. One-hundred and ten patients (59%) met our high risk criteria and 19 (17%) experienced an inpatient complication, with 4 (4%) of these occurring beyond 24 h post-EVAR (three urinary problems and one acute on chronic kidney injury). Six (6%) of these patients required a reintervention; however, all of these complications were detected within 24 h. Two (2%) high risk cohort patients required unplanned readmission within 30 days for a femoral pseudoaneurysm and musculoskeletal back pain.

Conclusions

With high risk patient selection criteria and appropriate post-operative safeguards, up to 60% of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms patients could be safely enrolled onto a next-day discharge SS-EVAR pathway with minimal readmissions, thus allowing more effective resource utilisation.

National trends in open surgical, endovascular, and branched-fenestrated endovascular aortic aneurysm repair in Medicare patients

BACKGROUND

Open repair effectively prevents rupture for patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and is commonly studied as a metric reflecting hospital and surgeon expertise in cardiovascular care. However, given recent advances in endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), such as branched-fenestrated EVAR, it is unknown how commonly open surgical repair is still used in everyday practice.

METHODS

We analyzed trends in open AAA repair, EVAR, and branched-fenestrated EVAR for AAA in Medicare beneficiaries from 2003 to 2013. We used Medicare Part B claims to ascertain counts of these repair types annually during the study period. We assessed regional and national trends in characteristics of the patients and procedure volume.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2013, the total number of AAA repairs performed in fee-for-service Medicare patients declined by 26% from 31,582 to 23,421 (P < .001), after a peak number of 32,540 was performed in 2005 (28% decline since 2005). The number of open AAA repairs steadily declined by a total of 76%, from 20,533 in 2003 to 4916 in 2013 (P < .001). Whereas the number of EVARs increased from 11,049 in 2003 to 19,247 in 2011 (P < .001), it has since declined a total of 15% to only 16,362 repairs in 2013 (P < .001). After its introduction in 2011, the number of branched-fenestrated EVAR cases continuously rose from 335 procedures in 2011 to 2143 procedures in 2013 (P < .001). By 2013, virtually all hospital referral regions in the United States had rates of open AAA repair that would have been in the lowest quintile of volume in 2003.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of open AAA repairs fell by nearly 80% during the last decade, whereas traditional EVAR declined slightly and branched-fenestrated EVAR rapidly disseminated into national practice. These results suggest that open AAA repair is now performed too infrequently to be used as a metric in the assessment of hospital and surgeon quality in cardiovascular care. Furthermore, surgical training paradigms will need to reflect the changing dynamics necessary to ensure that surgeons and interventionists can safely perform these high-risk surgical procedures.

A Simple Blood Test, Such as Complete Blood Count, Can Predict Calcification Grade of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Objective

The pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is complex and different factors, including calcification, are linked to increased complications. This study was conducted in order to verify if classical risk factors for AAA and cell blood count parameter could help in the identification of calcification progression of the aneurysm.

Design

Risk factors were collected and cell blood count was performed in patients with AAA and patients were analyzed for the presence of aorta calcification using CT angiography.

Results

We found no association of calcification grade with risk factors for AAA but we found a strong association between MCV, MCH, and calcification grade. Instead, no association was found with the other parameter that we analyzed.

Conclusions

In this study, we demonstrate that biomarkers such as MCV and MCH could have potential important information about AAA calcification progression and could be useful to discriminate between those patients that should undergo a rapid imaging, thus allowing prompt initiation of treatment of suspicious patients that do not need imaging repetition.

Systematic review of mortality risk prediction models in the era of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery

BACKGROUND

The introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has reduced perioperative mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The objective of this systematic review was to assess existing mortality risk prediction models, and identify which are most useful for patients undergoing AAA repair by either EVAR or open surgical repair.

METHODS

A systematic search of the literature was conducted for perioperative mortality risk prediction models for patients with AAA published since 2006. PRISMA guidelines were used; quality was appraised, and data were extracted and interpreted following the CHARMS guidelines.

RESULTS

Some 3903 studies were identified, of which 27 were selected. A total of 13 risk prediction models have been developed and directly validated. Most models were based on a UK or US population. The best performing models regarding both applicability and discrimination were the perioperative British Aneurysm Repair score (C-statistic 0·83) and the preoperative Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (C-statistic 0·85), but both lacked substantial external validation.

CONCLUSION

Mortality risk prediction in AAA surgery has been modelled extensively, but many of these models are weak methodologically and have highly variable performance across different populations. New models are unlikely to be helpful; instead case-mix correction should be modelled and adapted to the population of interest using the relevant mortality predictors.

Prediction of abdominal aortic aneurysm calcification by means of variation of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein

Objective

Abdominal aortic aneurysms are a major cause of death in developed countries, and thrombus and calcification of the aneurysm have been linked to increased complications. This study was conducted in order to identify the biochemical marker associated to the presence of intraluminal thrombus or calcification progression of the aneurysm.

Design

Several clinical laboratory parameters were measured in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms, in particular those already demonstrated to be related to the pathology, such as lipoprotein (a), white blood cell count, fibrinogen and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Most of the patients were analysed for the presence of thrombus or aorta calcification using CT angiography.

Results

Unlike previous findings, we found no association between intraluminal thrombus formation and lipoprotein (a), but we evidenced that patients with lower grade of calcification tend to have higher plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein values compared with patients with a higher degree of calcification. Instead, no association was found with either white blood cell count or fibrinogen level.

Conclusions

This study suggests that high-sensitivity C-reactive protein is a useful biomarker to assess the evolution of calcification and could be used in triaging patients to identify those who should undergo a rapid imaging, thus allowing prompt initiation of treatment or rule-out suspicious patients from non-essential imaging repetition.

The Concept of Risk Assessment and Being Unfit for Surgery

The concept of risk assessment and the identification of surgical unfitness for vascular intervention is a particularly controversial issue today as the minimally invasive surgical population has increased not only in volume but also in complexity (comorbidity profile) and age, requiring an improved pre-operative selection and definition of high risk. A practical step by step (three steps, two points for each) approach for surgical risk assessment is suggested in this review. As a general rule, the identification of a "high risk" patient for vascular surgery follows a step by step process where the risk is clearly defined, quantified (when too "high"?), and thereby stratified based on the procedure, the patient, and the hospital, with the aid of predictive risk scores. However, there is no standardized, updated, and objective definition for surgical unfitness today. The major gap in the current literature on the definition of high risk in vascular patients explains the lack of sound validated predictive systems and limited generalizability of risk scores in vascular surgery. In addition, the concept of fitness is an evolving tool and many traditional high risk criteria and definitions are no longer valid. Given the preventive purpose of most vascular procedures performed in elderly asymptomatic patients, the decision to pursue or withhold surgery requires realistic estimates not only regarding individual peri-operative mortality, but also life expectancy, healthcare priorities, and the patient's primary goals, such as prolongation of life versus maintenance of independence or symptom relief. The overall "frailty" and geriatric risk burden, such as cognitive, functional, social, and nutritional status, are variables that should be also included in the analyses for stratification of surgical risk in elderly vascular patients.

Calculating when elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair improves survival for individual patients: development of the Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair aims to prevent premature death from AAA rupture. Elective repair is currently recommended when AAA diameter reaches 5.5 cm (men) and 5.0 cm (women). Applying population-based indications may not be appropriate for individual patient decisions, as the optimal indication is likely to differ between patients based on age and comorbidities.

OBJECTIVE

To develop an Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid (ARDA) to indicate when elective AAA repair optimises survival for individual patients and to assess the cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty of elective repair at the aneurysm diameter recommended by the ARDA compared with current practice.

DATA SOURCES

The UK Vascular Governance North West and National Vascular Database provided individual patient data to develop predictive models for perioperative mortality and survival. Data from published literature were used to model AAA growth and risk of rupture. The cost-effectiveness analysis used data from published literature and from local and national databases.

METHODS

A combination of systematic review methods and clinical registries were used to provide data to populate models and inform the structure of the ARDA. Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the patient journey from diagnosis to death and synthesised data were used to estimate patient outcomes and costs for elective repair at alternative aneurysm diameters. Eight patient clinical scenarios (vignettes) were used as exemplars. The DES structure was validated by clinical and statistical experts. The economic evaluation estimated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the NHS, social care provider and patient perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness acceptability analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty in the data and the value for money of ARDA-based decisions. The ARDA outcome measures include perioperative mortality risk, annual risk of rupture, 1-, 5- and 10-year survival, postoperative long-term survival, median life expectancy and predicted time to current threshold for aneurysm repair. The primary economic measure was the ICER using the QALY as the measure of health benefit.

RESULTS

The analysis demonstrated it is feasible to build and run a complex clinical decision aid using DES. The model results support current guidelines for most vignettes but suggest that earlier repair may be effective in younger, fitter patients and ongoing surveillance may be effective in elderly patients with comorbidities. The model adds information to support decisions for patients with aneurysms outside current indications. The economic evaluation suggests that using the ARDA compared with current guidelines could be cost-effective but there is a high level of uncertainty.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of high-quality long-term data to populate all sections of the model meant that there is high uncertainty about the long-term clinical and economic consequences of repair. Modelling assumptions were necessary and the developed survival models require external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

The ARDA provides detailed information on the potential consequences of AAA repair or a decision not to repair that may be helpful to vascular surgeons and their patients in reaching informed decisions. Further research is required to reduce uncertainty about key data, including reintervention following AAA repair, and assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ARDA for use in routine clinical practice.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Objective/background

A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies.

Methods

The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups.

Results

The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76–0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups.

Conclusion

All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential.

Hospitalization rates and post-operative mortality for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Italy over the period 2000-2011

Background

Recent studies have reported declines in incidence, prevalence and mortality for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in various countries, but evidence from Mediterranean countries is lacking. The aim of this study is to examine the trend of hospitalization and post-operative mortality rates for AAAs in Italy during the period 2000–2011, taking into account the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in 1990s.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was carried out in Emilia-Romagna, an Italian region with 4.5 million inhabitants. A total of 19,673 patients hospitalized for AAAs between 2000 and 2011, were identified from the hospital discharge records (HDR) database. Hospitalization rates, percentage of OSR and EVAR and 30-day mortality rates were calculated for unruptured (uAAAs) and ruptured AAAs (rAAAs).

Results

Adjusted hospitalization rates decreased on average by 2.9% per year for uAAAs and 3.2% for rAAAs (p<0.001). The temporal trend of 30-day mortality rates remained stable for both groups. The percentage of EVAR for uAAAs increased significantly from 2006 to 2011 (42.7 versus 60.9% respectively, mean change of 3.9% per year, p<0.001). No significant difference in mortality was found between OSR and EVAR for uAAAs and rAAAs.

Conclusions

The incidence and trend of hospitalization rates for rAAAs and uAAAs decreased significantly in the last decade, while 30-day mortality rates in operated patients remained stable. OSR continued to be the most common surgery in rAAAs, although the gap between OSR and EVAR recently declined. The EVAR technique became the preferred surgery for uAAAs since 2008.