Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England

Comparison of SES method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in the department of neurology

To establish and compare the prediction effect of SES and SARIMA model, and select the best prediction model to predict the number of patients in neurology department. The data came from HIS and medical record management system of a Grade-A hospital in Zhejiang Province. The number of inpatients from January 2019 to September 2023 was selected to establish SES and SARIMA model, respectively. Compare the fitting parameters, The larger the R2_adjusted, R2, the smaller the RMSE, MAPE, MAE and standardized BIC, The better model is selected. Finally, the established model was used to predict the number of hospital admissions from October to December 2023, and the prediction effect of the MRE judgment model was compared. The number of admissions to the department of neurology shows a cyclical change, and drops sharply in January-February each year and rises rapidly in March. The best fitting models of SES model and SARIMA model were Winters addition model and SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model, respectively. The two models were selected to predict the number of admissions in the Department of neurology from October to December 2023, and the average relative error was 0.04 and 0.03, respectively. The prediction effect of SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was better. Age and Spring Festival may be the factors that affect the periodic change of the number of admissions in neurology department. Both SES and SARIMA model can be used to predict the number of admissions in the department of neurology, and the SARIMA model may be better.

Climate change and neurology: A survey of neurologists in Australia and New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the perceptions of neurologists in Australia and New Zealand regarding climate change and its impact on neurological practice.

METHODS

Members of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Neurologists were surveyed gathering demographic information and views on climate change and its impact on clinical practice. A composite score was generated based on five key climate change-related questions. Linear regression was used to examine associations between demographic factors and the composite score.

RESULTS

A total of 190 neurologists among 994 ANZAN members (19.1 %) completed the survey. Of these 94.7 % agreed that climate change is happening, and 81.1 % believed it impacts their patients' health. However, only 32.1 % felt comfortable initiating conversations about climate change. The majority of respondents perceived a moderate impact of climate change on patients' mental health, ability to exercise and multiple sclerosis symptomatology, and a small to moderate impact on migraines, emerging neuroinfectious disease and ability to access transport. Female neurologists had a higher composite score, whilst age did not independently predict the composite score.

CONCLUSIONS

Neurologists are concerned about climate change and its impact on their patients, but the majority are uncomfortable raising this in routine clinical care. Our findings support the need for more education for neurologists on strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change for patients with neurological disease.

Extreme Heat and Hospitalization Among Older Persons With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias

Importance

As US society ages and the climate changes, extreme outdoor heat may exacerbate the health burden of Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD), but where, when, and among whom extreme heat may increase hospitalizations with ADRD remains understudied.

Objective

To investigate the association between extreme heat and the risk of hospitalization with ADRD, and to explore how associations differ across climates and population subgroups.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Population-based cohort study, using a time-stratified case-crossover design, of Medicare fee-for-service (Part A) claims from 2000 to 2018 among beneficiaries aged 65 years or older in the contiguous US; time-stratified case-crossover design implemented with distributed lag nonlinear models using conditional logistic regression. Data were analyzed from October to November 2024.

Exposures

Daily maximum heat index converted to percentiles of climate-specific warm season heat index distributions.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was each beneficiary's first hospitalization with an ADRD diagnosis code, and other measures were county-level climates (arid, continental, temperate, or tropical).

Results

The sample included 3 329 977 beneficiaries (2 126 290 [63.9%] female, 33 887 [1.0%] Asian, 354 771 [10.7%] Black, 61 515 [1.8%] Hispanic, 2 831 391 [85.0%] White, and 891 815 [26.8%] dual eligible for Medicaid). The odds ratio (OR) of hospitalization with ADRD comparing days in the 99th vs 50th percentile of the heat index distribution was 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01-1.02), corresponding to 0.8 (95% CI, 0.5-1.1) additional hospitalizations with ADRD per 1000 beneficiaries. Results suggest extreme heat associations persist for 3 days beyond the initial day. The cumulative OR of hospitalization with ADRD after 4 days of continuous exposure to heat indexes at the 99th vs 50th percentile was 1.04 (95% CI, 1.03-1.04), or 1.7 (95% CI, 1.3-2.0) additional hospitalizations with ADRD per 1000 beneficiaries. Extrapolating these estimates to the 6.7 million adults currently living with ADRD suggests that each day of extreme heat could contribute to at least 5360 added hospitalizations with ADRD nationwide. Effects estimates were similar in temperate and continental climates. Arid and tropical climate estimates were somewhat similar but more uncertain. OR point estimates for hospitalization from 4 days of continuous extreme heat exposure for beneficiaries identifying as Asian (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.17), Black (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.10), and Hispanic (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13), were 2.6 to 3.2 times larger than for White beneficiaries (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that extreme heat may pose a growing threat to older adults living with ADRD. This threat may be larger among Asian, Black, and Hispanic racial and ethnic groups. Clinicians should consider counseling patients living with ADRD on extreme heat risks, and policymakers should devise risk mitigation programs.

Dementia and Risks of Temperature-Related Mortality and Hospitalizations in Germany

BACKGROUND

Extreme temperatures are associated with negative health outcomes, in particular for older adults with pre-existing conditions. While climate change is expected to increase exposure to temperature levels that are detrimental to health, little is known about how dementia shapes vulnerability to extreme temperatures.

METHODS

We leveraged repeated quarterly individual-level health claims from 2004 to 2019 on 250 000 individuals in Germany aged 50 years and above with information on key neurodegenerative diseases such as dementia. We linked data on the location of residence of these individuals with high-resolution gridded meteorological data. In our empirical analysis, we applied an individual-level fixed effects model to estimate how temperature affects the single patient's probability of hospitalization and death, adjusted for seasonality and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Our findings reveal that heat and cold exposure increases the risk of death. Conversely, the association between extreme temperatures and hospital admissions is more nuanced showing an increase only with cold exposure. Stratifying the analysis by individuals affected by dementia, we observe heat to increase mortality only for individuals with dementia and cold to determine an 8 times larger impact on them and a larger increase in hospitalization. Also, we observe individuals aged above 80 and with dementia to be the most at risk of death with exposure to cold and in particular heat.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study contributes to the growing body of evidence on the health impacts of climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted strategies to protect vulnerable groups, particularly patients with dementia, from adverse temperature effects.

The Role of the Neural Exposome as a Novel Strategy to Identify and Mitigate Health Inequities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias

With the continuous increase of the elderly population, there is an urgency to understand and develop relevant treatments for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). In tandem with this, the prevalence of health inequities continues to rise as disadvantaged communities fail to be included in mainstream research. The neural exposome poses as a relevant mechanistic approach and tool for investigating ADRD onset, progression, and pathology as it accounts for several different factors: exogenous, endogenous, and behavioral. Consequently, through the neural exposome, health inequities can be addressed in ADRD research. In this paper, we address how the neural exposome relates to ADRD by contributing to the discourse through defining how the neural exposome can be developed as a tool in accordance with machine learning. Through this, machine learning can allow for developing a greater insight into the application of transferring and making sense of experimental mouse models exposed to health inequities and potentially relate it to humans. The overall goal moving beyond this paper is to define a multitude of potential factors that can increase the risk of ADRD onset and integrate them to create an interdisciplinary approach to the study of ADRD and subsequently translate the findings to clinical research.

Effects of ambient temperature on mental and neurological conditions in older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Emerging research has suggested a link between ambient temperature and mental and neurological conditions such as depression and dementia. This systematic review aims to summarize the epidemiological evidence on the effects of ambient temperature on mental and neurological conditions in older adults, who may be more vulnerable to temperature-related health effects compared to younger individuals.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Ovid/Embase, Web of Science, and Ovid/PsycINFO on July 17, 2023, and updated on July 31, 2024. We included epidemiological studies investigating the association between ambient temperature exposures and numerous mental and neurological conditions in populations aged 60 years and older. Exclusions were made for studies on indoor or controlled exposure, suicide, substance abuse, those not published as peer-reviewed journal articles, or those not written in English. The risk of bias of included studies was assessed using a tool developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Qualitative synthesis was performed on all eligible studies, and random-effects meta-analyses were conducted on groups of at least four studies sharing similar study design, exposure metric, and health outcome. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework modified by the WHO.

RESULTS

From 16,786 screened articles, 76 studies were deemed eligible, primarily from mainland China and North America. There was notable heterogeneity in study variables and methodologies. The most commonly used exposure metrics were daily absolute temperature and heat waves, and time-series and case-crossover analyses were the most frequently employed study designs. Meta-analysis of four studies on the effect of a 1 °C increase in temperature on hospital admissions/visits for mental disorders showed a pooled risk ratio (RR) of 1.014 (95 % Confidence Interval, CI: 1.001, 1.026). Comparing heat wave days to non-heat wave days, pooled effect estimates showed increased risk in hospital admissions/visits (RR: 1.269; 95 % CI: 1.030, 1.564; six studies) and mortality related to mental disorders (RR: 1.266; 95 % CI: 0.956, 1.678; four studies). Despite the limited number of studies on cold exposures, they consistently reported that lower temperatures were associated with an increased risk of various mental and neurological conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This review presents epidemiological evidence of the adverse impacts of ambient temperature exposures, such as high temperatures and heat waves, on mental and neurological conditions among the older adult population, with overall moderate certainty. The findings highlight the need for greater attention to the mental and neurological health of older adults in the context of climate change and population aging. Registration number (PROSPERO ID): CRD42023428137.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality and the effect of prevention measures: a time-stratified case-crossover study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Swiss climate scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat episodes in the future. For the effective prevention of heat-related mortality, several aspects of the population's vulnerability to heat must be understood on a local level.

METHODS

A nationwide analysis of individual death records was conducted, enabling a more comprehensive understanding than typical heat studies based on aggregated data. A total of 320,306 individual death records from the Swiss National Cohort with precise address information during the warm season (May to September) from 2003-2016 were linked to indoor and outdoor high-resolution daily temperature estimates. A time-stratified case-crossover study combined with distributed lag non-linear models was then performed to assess the temperature-mortality associations for various causes of death and to estimate the potential effect modification of individual characteristics. Additionally, it was explored whether the effect of extreme heat changed over time in regions with and without cantonal heat-health action plans (HHAPs).

RESULTS

Using the temperature with the lowest cause-specific mortality risk (minimum mortality temperature) as the reference temperature, extreme heat (defined as ambient daily maximum temperature reaching 33 °C) was associated with a strong increase in all-cause mortality (odds ratio (OR): 1.21, 95% CI: 1.17-1.25) and disease-specific mortality from Alzheimer's disease and dementia (OR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.48-1.88), COPD (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.12-1.67), diabetes (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.06-1.70), and myocardial infarction (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44). Indoor temperatures above 24 °C were found to be critical for mortality. The population most vulnerable to heat included older adults (≥75 years), unmarried individuals, people with a low education level, older women with low neighbourhood socioeconomic position, and men under 75 years old with low socioeconomic position. Overall, the risk of heat-related all-cause mortality in 2009-2016 was lower than that in 2003-2008. The decrease was significantly stronger in the region where cantonal HHAPs were implemented.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important information for planning targeted and effective measures to reduce heat-related health risks in Switzerland. It demonstrates that HHAPs contribute to reducing heat-related mortality, although they may not reach the high-risk population of individuals with low socioeconomic position. Future prevention efforts should also target the less privileged population, including people younger than 75 years.

Climate Change and Aging: Implications for Psychiatric Care

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We reviewed recent evidence regarding the impact of climate change (specifically, high ambient temperatures, heatwaves, weather-related disasters, and air pollution) on older adults' mental health. We also summarized evidence regarding other medical problems that can occur in aging adults in connection with climate change, resulting in psychiatric manifestations or influencing psychopharmacological management.

RECENT FINDINGS

Older adults can experience anxiety, depressive, and/or posttraumatic stress symptoms, as well as sleep disturbances in the aftermath of climate disasters. Cognitive deficits may occur with exposure to air pollutants, heatwaves, or post-disaster. Individuals with major neurocognitive disorders and/or preexisting psychiatric illness have a higher risk of psychiatric hospitalizations after exposure to high temperatures and air pollution. There is a growing body of research regarding psychiatric clinical presentations associated with climate change in older adults. However, there is a paucity of evidence on management strategies. Future research should investigate culturally appropriate, cost-effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions.

Senior Health in a Changing Climate: Unique Needs of a Complex Population

Health effects of climate change present different challenges to people as they age, and the risks are expected to be higher in lower-income countries. Protective actions can help.

Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

Global climate change: Effects of future temperatures on emergency department visits for mental disorders in Beijing, China

Rising temperatures can increase the risk of mental disorders. As climate change intensifies, the future disease burden due to mental disorders may be underestimated. Using data on the number of daily emergency department visits for mental disorders at 30 hospitals in Beijing, China during 2016-2018, the relationship between daily mean temperature and such visits was assessed using a quasi-Poisson model integrated with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Emergency department visits for mental disorders attributed to temperature changes were projected using 26 general circulation models under four climate change scenarios. Stratification analyses were then conducted by disease subtype, sex, and age. The results indicate that the temperature-related health burden from mental disorders was projected to increase consistently throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by high temperatures. The future temperature-related health burden was higher for patients with mental disorders due to the use of psychoactive substances and schizophrenia as well as for women and those aged <65 years. These findings enhance our knowledge of how climate change could affect mental well-being and can be used to advance and refine targeted approaches to mitigating and adapting to climate change with a view on addressing mental disorders.

Exploring the influence of weather variability and climate change on health outcomes in people living with dementia: A scoping review protocol

Environmental factors resulting from climate change and air pollution are risk factors for many chronic conditions including dementia. Although research has shown the impacts of air pollution in terms of cognitive status, less is known about the association between climate change and specific health-related outcomes of older people living with dementia. In response, we outline a scoping review protocol to systematically review the published literature regarding the evidence of climate change, including temperature and weather variability, on health-related quality of life, morbidity, mobility, falls, the utilization of health resources, and mortality among older adults living with dementia. This scoping review will be guided by the framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley. Electronic search (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science) using relevant subject headings and synonyms for two concepts (older people with dementia, weather/ climate change). No publication date or other restrictions will be applied to the search strategy. No language restriction will be applied in order to understand the impact of non-English studies in the literature. Eligible studies must include older adults (65+years) with dementia living in the community and investigate the impacts of climate change and/or weather on their health-related quality of life, morbidity, mobility, falls, use of health resources and mortality. Two independent reviewers will screen abstracts and select those for a full-text review, perform these reviews, select articles for retention, and extract data from them in a standardized manner. This data will then be synthesized and interpreted. OSF registration: DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/YRFM8.

Heat Exposure and Dementia-Related Mortality in China

Importance

Although existing research has found daily heat to be associated with dementia-related outcomes, there is still a gap in understanding the differing associations of nighttime and daytime heat with dementia-related deaths.

Objectives

To quantitatively assess the risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with short-term nighttime and daytime heat exposure and identify potential effect modifications.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-crossover study analyzed individual death records for dementia across all mainland China counties from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019, using a time-stratified case-crossover approach. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019.

Exposures

Two novel heat metrics: hot night excess (HNE) and hot day excess (HDE), representing nighttime and daytime heat intensity, respectively.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Main outcomes were the relative risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with HNE and HDE under different definitions. Analysis was conducted with conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model.

Results

The study involved 132 573 dementia-related deaths (mean [SD] age, 82.5 [22.5] years; 73 086 women [55.1%]). For a 95% threshold, the median hot night threshold was 24.5 °C (IQR, 20.1 °C-26.2 °C) with an HNE of 3.7 °C (IQR, 3.1 °C-4.3 °C), and the median hot day threshold was 33.3 °C (IQR, 29.9 °C-34.7 °C) with an HDE of 0.6 °C (IQR, 0.5 °C-0.8 °C). Both nighttime and daytime heat were associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths. Hot nights' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths persisted for 6 days, while hot days' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths extended over 10 days. Extreme HDE had a higher relative risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with extreme HNE at more stringent thresholds. At a 97.5% threshold, the odds ratio for dementia-related deaths was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.22-1.55) for extreme HNE and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.68) for extreme HDE, with an attributable fraction of 1.45% (95% empirical confidence interval [95% eCI], 1.43%-1.47%) for extreme HNE and 1.10% (95% eCI, 1.08%-1.11%) for extreme HDE. Subgroup analyses suggested heightened susceptibility among females, individuals older than 75 years of age, and those with lower educational levels. Regional disparities were observed, with individuals in the south exhibiting greater sensitivity to nighttime heat and those in the north to daytime heat.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this nationwide case-crossover study suggest that both nighttime and daytime heat are associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with nighttime heat. These findings underscore the necessity of time-specific interventions to mitigate extreme heat risk.

Climate change and disorders of the nervous system

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting people's health, including those with neurological and psychiatric diseases. Currently, making inferences about the effect of climate change on neurological and psychiatric diseases is challenging because of an overall sparsity of data, differing study methods, paucity of detail regarding disease subtypes, little consideration of the effect of individual and population genetics, and widely differing geographical locations with the potential for regional influences. However, evidence suggests that the incidence, prevalence, and severity of many nervous system conditions (eg, stroke, neurological infections, and some mental health disorders) can be affected by climate change. The data show broad and complex adverse effects, especially of temperature extremes to which people are unaccustomed and wide diurnal temperature fluctuations. Protective measures might be possible through local forecasting. Few studies project the future effects of climate change on brain health, hindering policy developments. Robust studies on the threats from changing climate for people who have, or are at risk of developing, disorders of the nervous system are urgently needed.

Neurological patients confronting climate change: A potential role for the glymphatic system and sleep

Interest in the health consequences of climate change (global warming, heatwaves) has increased in the neurological community. This review addresses the impact of elevated ambient temperatures and heatwaves on patients with neurological and mental health disorders, including multiple sclerosis, synucleinopathies, dementia, epilepsies, mental health, and stroke. Patients with such conditions are highly vulnerable during heatwaves because of functional disorders affecting sleep, thermoregulation, autonomic system reactivity, mood, and cognitive ability. Several medications may also increase the risk of heatstroke. Special attention is devoted to the involvement of common underlying mechanisms, such as sleep and the glymphatic system. Disease prevention and patient care during heatwaves are major issues for caregivers. Beyond the usual recommendations for individuals, we favor artificially induced acclimation to heat, which provides preventive benefits with proven efficacy for healthy adults.

Experimental research in environmentally induced hyperthermic older persons: A systematic quantitative literature review mapping the available evidence

The heat-related health burden is expected to persist and worsen in the coming years due to an aging global population and climate change. Defining the breadth and depth of our understanding of age-related changes in thermoregulation can identify underlying causes and strategies to protect vulnerable individuals from heat. We conducted the first systematic quantitative literature review to provide context to the historical experimental research of healthy older adults - compared to younger adults or unhealthy age matched cases - during exogenous heat strain, focusing on factors that influence thermoregulatory function (e.g. co-morbidities). We identified 4,455 articles, with 147 meeting eligibility criteria. Most studies were conducted in the US (39%), Canada (29%), or Japan (12%), with 71% of the 3,411 participants being male. About 71% of the studies compared younger and older adults, while 34% compared two groups of older adults with and without factors influencing thermoregulation. Key factors included age combined with another factor (23%), underlying biological mechanisms (18%), age independently (15%), influencing health conditions (15%), adaptation potential (12%), environmental conditions (9%), and therapeutic/pharmacological interventions (7%). Our results suggest that controlled experimental research should focus on the age-related changes in thermoregulation in the very old, females, those with overlooked chronic heat-sensitive health conditions (e.g. pulmonary, renal, mental disorders), the impact of multimorbidity, prolonged and cumulative effects of extreme heat, evidence-based policy of control measures (e.g. personal cooling strategies), pharmaceutical interactions, and interventions stimulating protective physiological adaptation. These controlled studies will inform the directions and use of limited resources in ecologically valid fieldwork studies.

Thirty Risk Factors for Alzheimer's Disease Unified by a Common Neuroimmune-Neuroinflammation Mechanism

One of the major obstacles confronting the formulation of a mechanistic understanding for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is its immense complexity-a complexity that traverses the full structural and phenomenological spectrum, including molecular, macromolecular, cellular, neurological and behavioural processes. This complexity is reflected by the equally complex diversity of risk factors associated with AD. However, more than merely mirroring disease complexity, risk factors also provide fundamental insights into the aetiology and pathogenesis of AD as a neurodegenerative disorder since they are central to disease initiation and subsequent propagation. Based on a systematic literature assessment, this review identified 30 risk factors for AD and then extended the analysis to further identify neuroinflammation as a unifying mechanism present in all 30 risk factors. Although other mechanisms (e.g., vasculopathy, proteopathy) were present in multiple risk factors, dysfunction of the neuroimmune-neuroinflammation axis was uniquely central to all 30 identified risk factors. Though the nature of the neuroinflammatory involvement varied, the activation of microglia and the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines were a common pathway shared by all risk factors. This observation provides further evidence for the importance of immunopathic mechanisms in the aetiopathogenesis of AD.

Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study

Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.

Neighbourhood residential density, urbanicity and incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease: A 12-year prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank

INTRODUCTION

An increasing proportion of global population is exposed to urban densification in an aging society. However, little is known of the role of residential density and urbanicity on the risk of developing dementia including Alzheimer's disease. We examined long-term associations between residential density and urbanicity and risks of incident dementia and Alzheimer's disease.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included participants from the UK Biobank who lived at the same residential address, had no self-reported neurological conditions and without dementia at baseline. Residential density was measured as the number of dwelling units within 1-km street neighbourhood of participant's home address. A composite index of urbanicity was developed from neighbourhood-level z-standardized densities of housing, retail, public transport and street centrality. Hazard ratios were derived from Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for known risk factors.

RESULTS

The analytic sample included 239,629 participants aged 38-72 years. During a median follow-up of 12.3 years (interquartile range 11.5-13.0 years), 2,176 participants developed dementia and 1,004 Alzheimer's disease. After adjustments for potential risk factors, each 1,000 units/Km2 increment in residential density was associated with higher risks of dementia (hazard ratio [HR]=1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.15) and Alzheimer's disease (HR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.04-1.16). Consistently, categorical models showed that living in neighbourhoods of higher residential density and urbanicity were associated with higher risks of dementia (HR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.12-1.51 for the highest density quintile compared to the lowest and HR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.05-1.39 for the highest urbanicity quintile relative to the lowest). The associations were more pronounced in female, age >65 years, and among participants of the low income and those being frail and having shorter leucocyte telomere length (LTL).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher residential density and urbanicity was found to be positively associated with elevated risks of dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Optimizing neighbourhood residential density maybe one of the upstream considerations for mitigating against neurodegenerative diseases.

Heat-related first cardiovascular event incidence in the city of Madrid (Spain): Vulnerability assessment by demographic, socioeconomic, and health indicators

While climate change and population ageing are expected to increase the exposure and vulnerability to extreme heat events, there is emerging evidence suggesting that social inequalities would additionally magnify the projected health impacts. However, limited evidence exists on how social determinants modify heat-related cardiovascular morbidity. This study aims to explore the association between heat and the incidence of first acute cardiovascular event (CVE) in adults in Madrid between 2015 and 2018, and to assess how social context and other individual characteristics modify the estimated association. We performed a case-crossover study using the individual information collected from electronic medical records of 6514 adults aged 40-75 living in Madrid city that suffered a first CVE during summer (June-September) between 2015 and 2018. We applied conditional logistic regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to analyse the heat-CVE association. Estimates were expressed as Odds Ratio (OR) for extreme heat (at 97.5th percentile of daily maximum temperature distribution), compared to the minimum risk temperature. We performed stratified analyses by specific diagnosis, sex, age (40-64, 65-75), country of origin, area-level deprivation, and presence of comorbidities. Overall, the risk of suffering CVE increased by 15.3% (OR: 1.153 [95%CI 1.010-1.317]) during extreme heat. Males were particularly more affected (1.248, [1.059-1.471]), vs 1.039 [0.810-1.331] in females), and non-Spanish population (1.869 [1.28-2.728]), vs 1.084 [0.940-1.250] in Spanish). Similar estimates were found by age groups. We observed a dose-response pattern across deprivation levels, with larger risks in populations with higher deprivation (1.228 [1.031-1.462]) and almost null association in the lowest deprivation group (1.062 [0.836-1.349]). No clear patterns of larger vulnerability were found by presence of comorbidity. We found that heat unequally increased the risk of suffering CVE in adults in Madrid, affecting mainly males and deprived populations. Local measures should pay special attention to vulnerable populations.

Estimating future PM2.5-attributed acute myocardial infarction incident cases under climate mitigation and population change scenarios in Shandong Province, China

BACKGROUND

The effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been widely recognized. However, no studies have comprehensively evaluated future PM2.5-attributed AMI burdens under different climate mitigation and population change scenarios. We aimed to quantify the PM2.5-AMI association and estimate the future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases under six integrated scenarios in 2030 and 2060 in Shandong Province, China.

METHODS

Daily AMI incident cases and air pollutant data were collected from 136 districts/counties in Shandong Province from 2017 - 2019. A two-stage analysis with a distributed lag nonlinear model was conducted to quantify the baseline PM2.5-AMI association. The future change in PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases was estimated by combining the fitted PM2.5-AMI association with the projected daily PM2.5 concentrations under six integrated scenarios. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in PM2.5-related AMI incidence using a decomposition method.

RESULTS

Each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure at lag05 was related to an excess risk of 1.3 % (95 % confidence intervals: 0.9 %, 1.7 %) for AMI incidence from 2017 - 2019 in Shandong Province. The estimated total PM2.5-attributed AMI incident cases would increase by 10.9-125.9 % and 6.4-244.6 % under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, whereas they would decrease by 0.9-5.2 % and 33.0-46.2 % under Scenarios 5 - 6 in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Furthermore, the percentage increases in PM2.5-attributed female cases (2030: -0.3 % to 135.1 %; 2060: -33.2 % to 321.5 %) and aging cases (2030: 15.2-171.8 %; 2060: -21.5 % to 394.2 %) would wholly exceed those in male cases (2030: -1.8 % to 133.2 %; 2060: -41.1 % to 264.3 %) and non-aging cases (2030: -41.0 % to 45.7 %; 2060: -89.5 % to -17.0 %) under six scenarios in 2030 and 2060. Population aging is the main driver of increased PM2.5-related AMI incidence under Scenarios 1 - 3 in 2030 and 2060, while improved air quality can offset these negative effects of population aging under the implementation of the carbon neutrality and 1.5 °C targets.

CONCLUSION

The combination of ambitious climate policies (i.e., 1.5 °C warming limits and carbon neutrality targets) with stringent clean air policies is necessary to reduce the health impacts of air pollution in Shandong Province, China, regardless of population aging.

A Systematic Literature Review of the Impact of Climate Change on the Global Demand for Psychiatric Services

Climate Change (CC) imposes important global health risks, including on mental health (MH). They are related mostly to psychological suffering caused by climate-related events and to the heat-vulnerability caused by psychiatric disorders. This growing burden may press MH services worldwide, increasing demand on public and private systems in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. According to PRISMA, two independent reviewers searched four databases for papers published before May 2022 that associated climate-related events with healthcare demand for psychiatric conditions. Of the 7432 papers retrieved, we included 105. Only 29 were carried out in low- and middle-income countries. Twelve related the admission numbers to (i) extreme events, while 93 to (ii) meteorological factors-mostly heat. Emergency visits and hospitalizations were significantly higher during hot periods for MH disorders, especially until lag 5-7. Extreme events also caused more consultations. Suicide (completed or attempted), substance misuse, schizophrenia, mood, organic and neurotic disorders, and mortality were strongly affected by CC. This high healthcare demand is evidence of the burden patients may undergo. In addition, public and private services may face a shortage of financial and human resources. Finally, the increased use of healthcare facilities, in turn, intensifies greenhouse gas emissions, representing a self-enforcing cycle for CC. Further research is needed to better clarify how extreme events affect MH services and, in addition, if services in low- and middle-income countries are more intensely demanded by CC, as compared to richer countries.