BETR-World: a geographically explicit model of chemical fate: application to transport of alpha-HCH to the Arctic

Occurrence, spatial patterns, air-seawater exchange, and atmospheric deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from the Northwest Pacific to Arctic Ocean

Numerous studies have elucidated the characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Arctic; however, their behavior in different environments has not been studied at a large scale. To investigate the occurrence, spatial trends, air-seawater exchange and atmospheric deposition of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), this study takes sample from the Northwest Pacific Ocean. to the Arctic Ocean.The concentrations of 16 PAHs in air and seawater ranged from 27 to 5658 pg/m³ and 34-338 ng/L, respectively. The air-seawater exchange flux of the region was calculated with a Whitman two-film model to be -82681-24613 ng/m²/day. Meanwhile, low-ring PAHs were transported from seawater to the air, while high-ring PAHs were transported from air to seawater. A correlation analysis between multiple environmental factors and particle phase ratio suggested that temperature might be the major driving factor for PAHs in the long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) process. Moreover, the dry atmospheric deposition fluxes in the region were analyzed by considering environmental factors and the physicochemical properties of each PAHs monomer, these fluxes ranged from 0.001 to 696 ng/m²/day and were greater inshore than offshore and at higher latitudes. This study highlights that PAHs are affected by LRAT during their transport from Asia to Northwest Pacific and further to the Arctic Ocean, while emphasizing that air-seawater exchange plays an important role in air-sea interactions in the open ocean.

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Related Chemicals in the Global Environment: Some Personal Reflections

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and related chemicals are fascinating because of their combination of physical-chemical properties and complex effects. Most are man-made, but some also have natural origins. They are persistent in the environment, but they can be broken down variously by biodegradation, atmospheric reactions, and abiotic transformations. They can exist in the gas or particle phases, or both, in the atmosphere and in the dissolved or particulate phases, or both, in water. These combinations mean that they may undergo long-range transport in the atmosphere or oceans, or they may stay close to sources. Hence, emissions from one country are frequently a source of contamination to another country. They are also usually lipophilic, so-combined with persistence-this means they can accumulate in organisms and biomagnify through food chains. We all have a baseline of POPs residues in our tissues, even the unborn fetus via placental transfer and the newly born baby via mother's milk. POPs in biological systems occur in mixtures, so confirming effects caused by POPs on humans and other top predators is never straightforward. Depending on which papers you read, POPs may be relatively benign, or they could be responsible for key subchronic and chronic effects on reproductive potential, on immune response, as carcinogens, and on a range of behavioral and cognitive end points. They could be a factor behind diseases and conditions which have been increasingly reported and studied in modern societies. In short, they are endlessly fascinating to scientists and a nightmare to regulators and policy makers.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in the Canadian environment: Links to global change

In this review, global change processes have been linked to polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in Canada and a first national budget of sources and sinks has been derived. Sources are dominated by wildfire emissions that affect western and northern regions of Canada disproportionately due to the location of Pacific and boreal forests and the direction of prevailing winds. Wildfire emissions are projected to increase under climate warming along with releases from the thawing of glaciers and permafrost. Residential wood combustion, domestic transportation and industry contribute the bulk of anthropogenic emissions, though they are substantially smaller than wildfire emissions and are not expected to change considerably in coming years. Other sources such as accidental spills, deforestation, and re-emission of previous industrial deposition are expected to contribute anthropogenic and biogenic PACs to nearby ecosystems. PAC sinks are less well-understood. Atmospheric deposition is similar in magnitude to anthropogenic sources. Considerable knowledge gaps preclude the estimation of environmental transformations and transboundary flows, and assessing the importance of climate change relative to shifts in population distribution and energy production is not yet possible. The outlook for PACs in the Arctic is uncertain due to conflicting assessments of competing factors and limited measurements, some of which provide a baseline but have not been followed up in recent years. Climate change has led to an increase in primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean, but PAC-related impacts on marine biota appear to be modest. The net effect of changes in ecological exposure from changing emissions and environmental conditions throughout Canada remains to be seen. Evidence suggests that the PAC budget at the national scale does not represent impacts at the local or regional level. The ability to assess future trends depends on improvements to Canada's environmental measurement strategy and biogeochemical modelling capability.

ChemFate: A fate and transport modeling framework for evaluating radically different chemicals under comparable conditions

With the ever-increasing development on novel chemicals and materials, with radically different properties and environmental behavior, it is challenging to compare their environmental behavior under similar conditions. For example, pesticides may be non-ionizable organics, ionizable organics, metal ion-based, or nanomaterials. These very different chemicals behave very differently. To date, no single modeling platform can handle all adequately, in a dynamic framework that accounts for actual variability in meteorology, rates of release to the environment, and the actual characteristics of the region of interest. Here we present ChemFate, a framework to address this challenge, by incorporating four different fate and transport models, each to address these four classes of chemicals (non-ionizable organics, ionizable organics, metal ion-based, or nanomaterials). We build upon established models, but have incorporated a number of additional processes. After demonstrating that the individual models comparable favorably with observed data and the previous models, under similar conditions, we conducted a case study with four radically different fungicides, used in the Central Valley, California. We found that although the concentrations of the non-ionizable and ionizable organic fungicide spike after application and temporarily may exceed toxicity thresholds for Daphnia Magna, they do not accumulate over time, while the metal ion and metallic nanoparticle result in increasing accumulation of Cu²⁺, eventually exceeding the toxicity threshold during runoff events. This case study demonstrates the value of a framework that allows the comparison of different classes of chemicals under the same conditions.

Chemical fate of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: Evaluation of simplebox

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are of great concern for decades due to their persistence, bioaccumulation and long-range transport potential. Multimedia fate models are useful scientific and decision-support tools for predicting the chemical fate in the environment. The SimpleBox multimedia fate model (v4.0) was used in this study to estimate the impact of POP emissions from the European and North American mainland on POP contamination in the Arctic. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of SimpleBox by comparing estimations to measurements. Model performance for the air compartment was reasonable as estimated concentrations were generally within a factor of five of measured concentrations. SimpleBox suggested higher POP concentrations in Arctic oceans than in temperate oceans, contrary to the few measured data. Discrepancies between estimations and measurements may be attributed to the variability in emission estimates and degradation rates of POPs, representativeness of monitoring data, and a missing snow and ice environmental compartment in SimpleBox. Emission rates and degradation rate constants were the most influential input parameters in SimpleBox based on sensitivity analysis. Suggestions for improvements of SimpleBox refining POP risk assessment are provided.

Carbaryl residue concentrations, degradation, and major sinks in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

The fate of carbaryl in the Seto Inland Sea (west Japan) was predicted using a mass distribution model using carbaryl concentrations in river and sea water samples, degradation data, and published data. The predicted carbaryl concentrations in water in Kurose River and the Seto Inland Sea were 4.320 and 0.2134 μg/L, respectively, and the predicted concentrations in plankton, fish, and sediment were 0.4140, 2.436, and 1.851 μg/g dry weight, respectively. The carbaryl photodegradation and biodegradation rates were higher for river water (0.330 and 0.029 day^-1, respectively) than sea water (0.23 and 0.001 day^-1, respectively). The carbaryl photodegradation rates for river and sea water (0.33 and 0.23 day^-1, respectively) were higher than the biodegradation rates (0.029 and 0.001 day^-1, respectively). The hydrolysis degradation rate for carbaryl in sea water was 0.003 day^-1, and the half-life was 231 days. Land (via rivers) was the main source of carbaryl to the Seto Inland Sea. The model confirmed carbaryl is distributed between sediment, plankton, and fish in the Seto Inland Sea. Degradation, loss to the Open Ocean, and sedimentation are the main carbaryl sinks in the Seto Inland Sea, accounting for 43.81, 27.90, and 17.68%, respectively, of total carbaryl inputs. Carbaryl source and sink data produced by the model could help in the management of the negative impacts of carbaryl on aquatic systems and human health.

Spatiotemporal distribution and dynamic modeling of atmospheric gaseous polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a rapidly urbanizing city: Nanjing, China

Multiple studies have evaluated the concentration and lung cancer risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). However, the monitoring and dynamic modeling of PAHs with a high resolution were relatively insufficient. We investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of gaseous PAH concentrations using passive air samplers with high sampling density in an industrial city of Nanjing, China (January and October 2015) and found that the gaseous PAH concentrations in western Nanjing were higher than those in eastern Nanjing, mainly because of emission source distribution and wind action. There were notable seasonal changes in PAH concentrations: winter > autumn > spring > summer. We developed an atmospheric PAH dynamic model with a high resolution of 1 km² based on the advection-diffusion equation and coupled with an emissions inventory and atmospheric transportation processes. Acenaphthene was selected as a proxy for gaseous PAHs. The modeled acenaphthene concentrations were similar to the concentrations measured. Moreover, we used the model to identify the impact of meteorological factors on gaseous PAHs via scenario analysis and found that a narrow-range temperature change and even heavy rainfall may not significantly affect atmospheric gaseous PAH concentrations, whereas the wind played an important part in transferring PAHs and changing their geographic distribution.

Multimedia fate and transport simulation of perfluorooctanoic acid/ perfluorooctanoate in an urbanizing area

Strong global demand leads to significant production of fluoropolymers (FP) in China which potentially release large quantities of perfluorooctanoic acid/perfluorooctanoate (collectively called PFOA/PFO) to the environment. Modelling the fate and transport of PFOA/PFO provides an important input for human health risk assessment. Considering the effects of urbanization and existing forms of PFOA/PFO, this study used the modified multispecies Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural model to simulate the transfer behavior of PFOA/PFO in the Bohai Rim, China. Spatial distributions of PFOA/PFO emissions during the year 2012 for the study area were illustrated. About two thirds of the total amount of PFOA/PFO was estimated to be released into fresh water, and the total releases to rural areas were 160-fold higher than those to urban areas due to the location of fluorochemical industrial parks. The simulations predicted that hydrosphere was the fate of PFOA/PFO, followed by soil and vegetation, which was consistent with field data. The highest PFOA/PFO concentration was modeled in the Xiaoqing River basin with a value of 32.57 μg/L. The PFOA/PFO concentrations in urban soils were generally higher than those in rural soils except for grids 1, 3 and 46. In addition, it was estimated that the total flux of PFOA/PFO entering into the Bohai Sea was 24.57 ton/year, 100-fold higher than that of perfluorooctane sulfonates (PFOS).

Dynamic multimedia fate simulation of Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) from 1981 to 2050 in the urbanizing Bohai Rim of China

Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and related substances are widely used in various industrial and commercial applications in China that ultimately discharge sufficient quantities of PFOS to the environment. It remains unclear how emissions of PFOS ultimately affect its concentrations as well as its fate in the environment. In this study, an improved Berkeley-Trent (BETR) multimedia model is developed to predict the PFOS levels with spatial and temporal distributions on unsteady state mode from 1981 to 2050, by taking the Bohai Rim of China as a case. The results showed that the modeled concentrations agreed well with the measured data. According to the model, PFOS concentrations in fresh water peaked in some months after the peak emission (2008 or 2009), whereas in urban soil the concentrations increased to peak slightly later (around 2014). Among the selected regions, Beijing and Tianjin were simulated with higher PFOS levels in the past and present because of their higher urbanization and industrialization since the 1980s, while in the future, Shandong and Liaoning are expected to have higher concentrations of PFOS than those in Beijing. The water system including coastal water, fresh water and sediment was the biggest sink for PFOS for coastal regions. Among the chemical inputs, direct primary emissions played a more important role, whereas for chemical removal processes, inter-regional advection and background outflow were the predominant pathways. The results would be useful to control the PFOS releases in China and will help the management agencies to implement the "Stockholm Convention" effectively.

Concentration and degradation of alternative biocides and an insecticide in surface waters and their major sinks in a semi-enclosed sea, Japan

A mass distribution model was used to predict the fate of Diuron, Irgarol 1051 and Fenitrothion in Seto Inland Sea which is located in western Japan. This was done by using concentration, degradation, and literature data. Diuron and Irgarol 1051 in Seto Inland Sea are mainly derived from antifouling paints used for ships and boats. On the other hand Fenitrothion exclusively comes from land via rivers and atmospheric deposition. The total inputs/yr to Seto Inland Sea were found to be 104 tons, 7.65 tons and 5.14 tons for Diuron, Irgarol 1051 and Fenitrothion, respectively. The pesticide residence times were 0.26 yr, 0.36 yr and 0.17 yr for Diuron, Irgarol 1051 and Fenitrothion, respectively. Photodegradation was faster than biodegradation. In seawater, the half-life ranges were 37.9-57.3 d for photodegradation. In the same seawater the half-life ranges were 1650-2394 d for biodegradation. Photodegradation is effective in surface water (0-5 m depth) while biodegradation occurs throughout the entire water column. Plankton and fishes accumulate these pesticides significantly. The pesticides are deposited (sorbed and buried with) sediments (between 74 and 87% of total input amounts). The open ocean is an important sink accounting for between 8 and 17% of the total pesticide input amounts while photo- and biodegradation accounts for a small percentage.

Urban and rural transport of semivolatile organic compounds at regional scale: A multimedia model approach

Urban areas are generally regarded as major sources of some semivolatile organic compounds and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the surrounding regions. Huge differences in contaminant emissions between urban and rural areas directly affect their fate in environmental media. Little is known about POPs behavior between urban and rural areas at a regional scale. A spatially resolved Berkeley-Trent-Urban-Rural Fate Model (BETR-UR) was designed by coupling land cover information to simulate the transport of POPs between urban and rural areas, and the Bohai Rim was used as a case study to estimate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) fate. The processes of contaminant fate including emission, inter-compartmental transfer, advection and degradation in urban and rural areas were simulated in the model. Simulated PAH concentrations in environmental media of urban and rural areas were very close to measured values. The model accuracy was highly improved, with the average absolute relative error for PAH concentrations reduced from 37% to 3% compared with unimproved model results. PAH concentrations in urban soil and air were considerably higher than those in rural areas. Sensitivity analysis showed temperature was the most influential parameter for Phen rather than for Bap, whose fate was more influenced by emission rate, compartment dimension, transport velocity and chemical persistence. Uncertainty analysis indicated modeled results in urban media had higher uncertainty than those in rural areas due to larger variations of emissions in urban areas. The differences in urban and rural areas provided us with valuable guidance on policy setting for urban-rural POP control.

Exploring the fate, transport and risk of Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) in a coastal region of China using a multimedia model

Perfluorooctane Sulfonate (PFOS) and related substances have been widely applied in both industrial processes and domestic products in China. Exploring the environmental fate and transport of PFOS using modeling methods provides an important link between emission and multimedia diffusion which forms a vital part in the human health risk assessment and chemical management for these substances. In this study, the gridded fugacity based BETR model was modified to make it more suitable to model transfer processes of PFOS in a coastal region, including changes to PFOS partition coefficients to reflect the influence of water salinity on its sorption behavior. The fate and transport of PFOS in the Bohai coastal region of China were simulated under steady state with the modified version of the model. Spatially distributed emissions of PFOS and related substances in 2010 were estimated and used in these simulations. Four different emission scenarios were investigated, in which a range of half-lives for PFOS related substances were considered. Concentrations of PFOS in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water were derived from the model under the steady-state assumption. The median modeled PFOS concentrations in fresh water, fresh water sediment and soil were 7.20ng/L, 0.39ng/g and 0.21ng/g, respectively, under Emission Scenario 2 (which assumed all PFOS related substances immediately degrade to PFOS) for the whole region, while the maximum concentrations were 47.10ng/L, 4.98ng/g and 2.49ng/g, respectively. Measured concentration data for PFOS in the Bohai coastal region around the year of 2010 were collected from the literature. The reliability of the model results was evaluated by comparing the range of modeled concentrations with the measured data, which generally matched well for the main compartments. Fate and transfer fluxes were derived from the model based on the calculated inventory within the compartments, transfer fluxes between compartments and advection fluxes between sub-regions. It showed that soil and costal water were likely to be the most important sinks of PFOS in the Bohai costal region, in which more than 90% of PFOS was stored. Flows of fresh water were the driving force for spatial transport of PFOS in this region. Influences of the seasonal change of fresh water fluxes on the model results were also analyzed. When only seasonal changes of the fresh water flow rates were considered, concentrations of PFOS in winter and spring were predicted to be higher than that under annual average conditions, while the concentrations in summer and autumn were lower. For PFOS fluxes entering the sea, opposite conclusions were drawn compared to the concentrations. Environmental risks from the presence of PFOS in fresh water were assessed for this region through comparison with available water quality criteria values. The predicted concentrations of PFOS in the Bohai coastal region provided by the model were lower than the water quality criteria published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Chinese researchers, while the concentrations in more than 80% of the sampling locations exceeded the European Union Water Framework Directive Environmental Quality Standards values. Seasonal variations of flow rate might cause a significant increase in environmental risks.

A preliminary compilation and evaluation of a comprehensive emission inventory for polychlorinated biphenyls in China

Emission inventories for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are crucial input data for atmospheric transport modeling and for the study of source-receptor relationships and the environmental behavior of these chemicals. Three types of primary PCB sources are considered in this study: intentionally produced PCBs (IP-PCBs), unintentionally produced PCBs (UP-PCBs), and PCB emissions from two e-waste sites (EW-PCBs). This study presents the historical emissions of all IP-, UP- and EW-PCBs into the air in China and the gridded Chinese emission inventories at a resolution of 1/6° latitude×1/4° longitude from 1950 to 2010. The UP-TPCB emissions from 1950 to 2010 were re-estimated to be 8.56t from eight emission sources comprising 96.3% of the Chinese UP-TPCB emissions. The EW-TPCB emissions from 1990 to 2010 were estimated to be 103.5 t, of which 7.1t and 12.3t were EW-PCB28 and EW-7PCB congeners (i.e., indicator-PCB28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153, 180), respectively. The IP-PCB28 and IP-7PCB congener emissions from 1965 to 2010 were estimated to be 57.4 t and 130.1t, respectively. A significant correlation was found between congener PCB28 and 7PCBs (R(2)=0.988 and P=0.000), which suggests that PCB28 is a good marker congener for describing the emission trends of all 7PCB emission sources. The gridded emission data were compared with published measured atmospheric concentrations for 2004 and 2008, and a significant correlation was found between the modeled emissions and monitoring data. To our knowledge, this study presents the first comprehensive gridded emission inventories that include all IP-, UP-, and EW-PCBs on a national scale.

Using gridded multimedia model to simulate spatial fate of Benzo[α]pyrene on regional scale

Predicting the environmental multimedia fate is an essential step in the process of assessing the human exposure and health impacts of chemicals released into the environment. Multimedia fate models have been widely applied to calculate the fate and distribution of chemicals in the environment, which can serve as input to a human exposure model. In this study, a grid based multimedia fugacity model at regional scale was developed together with a case study modeling the fate and transfer of Benzo[α]pyrene (BaP) in Bohai coastal region, China. Based on the estimated emission and in-site survey in 2008, the BaP concentrations in air, vegetation, soil, fresh water, fresh water sediment and coastal water as well as the transfer fluxes were derived under the steady-state assumption. The model results were validated through comparison between the measured and modeled concentrations of BaP. The model results indicated that the predicted concentrations of BaP in air, fresh water, soil and sediment generally agreed with field observations. Model predictions suggest that soil was the dominant sink of BaP in terrestrial systems. Flow from air to soil, vegetation and costal water were three major pathways of BaP inter-media transport processes. Most of the BaP entering the sea was transferred by air flow, which was also the crucial driving force in the spatial distribution processes of BaP. The Yellow River, Liaohe River and Daliao River played an important role in the spatial transformation processes of BaP. Compared with advection outflow, degradation was more important in removal processes of BaP. Sensitivities of the model estimates to input parameters were tested. The result showed that emission rates, compartment dimensions, transport velocity and degradation rates of BaP were the most influential parameters for the model output. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to determine parameter uncertainty, from which the coefficients of variation for the estimated BaP concentrations in air and soil were computed, which were 0.46 and 1.53, respectively. The model output-concentrations of BaP in multimedia environment can be used in human exposure and risk assessment in the Bohai coastal region. The results also provide significant indicators on the likely dominant fate, influence range of emission and transport processes determining behavior of BaP in the Bohai coastal region, which is instrumental in human exposure and risk assessment in the region.

Climate-based archetypes for the environmental fate assessment of chemicals

Emissions of chemicals have been on the rise for years, and their impacts are greatly influenced by spatial differentiation. Chemicals are usually emitted locally but their impact can be felt both locally and globally, due to their chemical properties and persistence. The variability of environmental parameters in the emission compartment may affect the chemicals' fate and the exposure at different orders of magnitude. The assessment of the environmental fate of chemicals and the inherent spatial differentiation requires the use of multimedia models at various levels of complexity (from a simple box model to complex computational and high-spatial-resolution models). The objective of these models is to support ecological and human health risk assessment, by reducing the uncertainty of chemical impact assessments. The parameterisation of spatially resolved multimedia models is usually based on scenarios of evaluative environments, or on geographical resolutions related to administrative boundaries (e.g. countries/continents) or landscape areas (e.g. watersheds, eco-regions). The choice of the most appropriate scale and scenario is important from a management perspective, as a balance should be reached between a simplified approach and computationally intensive multimedia models. In this paper, which aims to go beyond the more traditional approach based on scale/resolution (cell, country, and basin), we propose and assess climate-based archetypes for the impact assessment of chemicals released in air. We define the archetypes based on the main drivers of spatial variability, which we systematically identify by adopting global sensitivity analysis techniques. A case study that uses the high resolution multimedia model MAPPE (Multimedia Assessment of Pollutant Pathways in the Environment) is presented. Results of the analysis showed that suitable archetypes should be both climate- and chemical-specific, as different chemicals (or groups of them) have different traits that influence their spatial variability. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the variability of the output of MAPPE for four different climatic zones on four different continents for four different chemicals (which represent different combinations of physical and chemical properties). Results showed the high suitability of climate-based archetypes in assessing the impacts of chemicals released in air. However, further research work is still necessary to test these findings.

Emissions, fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants to the Arctic in a changing global climate

Climate change is expected to alter patterns of human economic activity and the associated emissions of chemicals, and also to affect the transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Here, we use a global-scale multimedia chemical fate model to analyze and quantify the impact of climate change on emissions and fate of POPs, and their transport to the Arctic. First, climate change effects under the SRES-A2 scenario are illustrated using case-studies for two well-characterized POPs, PCB153, and α-HCH. Then, we model the combined impact of altered emission patterns and climatic conditions on environmental concentrations of potential future-use substances with a broad range of chemical properties. Starting from base-case generic emission scenarios, we postulate changes in emission patterns that may occur in response to climate change: enhanced usage of industrial chemicals in an ice-free Arctic, and intensified application of agrochemicals due to higher crop production and poleward expansion of potential arable land. We find both increases and decreases in concentrations of POP-like chemicals in the Arctic in the climate change scenario compared to the base-case climate. During the phase of ongoing primary emissions, modeled increases in Arctic contamination are up to a factor of 2 in air and water, and are driven mostly by changes in emission patterns. After phase-out, increases are up to a factor of 2 in air and 4 in water, and are mostly attributable to changes in transport and fate of chemicals under the climate change scenario.

Exploring the role of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean in determining the Arctic contamination potential of neutral organic contaminants

The main objective of this study was to model the contribution of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean to the total mass of neutral organic contaminants accumulated in the Arctic environment using a standardized emission scenario for sets of hypothetical chemicals and realistic emission estimates (1930-2100) for polychlorinated biphenyl congener 153 (PCB-153). Shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean are shown to be important reservoirs for neutral organic chemicals across a wide range of partitioning properties, increasing the total mass in the surface compartments of the Arctic environment by up to 3.5-fold compared to simulations excluding this compartment. The relative change in total mass for hydrophobic organic chemicals with log air-water partition coefficients ≥0 was greater than for chemicals with properties similar to typical POPs. The long-term simulation of PCB-153 generated modeled concentrations in shelf sediments in reasonable agreement with available monitoring data and illustrate that the relative importance of shelf sediments in the Arctic Ocean for influencing surface ocean concentrations (and therefore exposure via the pelagic food web) is most pronounced once primary emissions are exhausted and secondary sources dominate. Additional monitoring and modeling work to better characterize the role of shelf sediments for contaminant fate is recommended.

Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models

Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability.

Comparative assessment of the global fate of α- and β-hexachlorocyclohexane before and after phase-out

Technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) was one of the most widely used pesticides during the 20th century. Although production and use were phased-out during the 1990s, two of its major components, α- and β-HCH, are still ubiquitous in the environment. Here, we have collected and analyzed data on concentrations of α- and β-HCH in the atmosphere and oceans, including spatial and temporal trends and seasonalities. We apply a global fate and transport model to both isomers over the period 1950 to 2050 to rationalize current levels and trends at remote locations with estimated emissions and to forecast into the near future. Our model results indicate that secondary emissions from soils and oceans are currently controlling the observed rates of decline in the atmosphere. β-HCH is declining more slowly than α-HCH due to its higher persistence, and we hypothesize that it will eventually become the predominant isomer of HCH in the environment. The model reproduces over 70% of measured concentrations of α-HCH in air and ocean water within factors of 3 and 5, respectively, and over 70% of measured concentrations of β-HCH within factors of 8 and 20, respectively. The model results are only weakly sensitive to climate change-induced trends in Arctic sea-ice cover and temperature.

GLOBOX: A spatially differentiated global fate, intake and effect model for toxicity assessment in LCA

GLOBOX is a model for the calculation of spatially differentiated LCA toxicity characterisation factors on a global scale. It can also be used for human and environmental risk assessment. The GLOBOX model contains equations for the calculation of fate, intake and effect factors, and equations for the calculation of LCA characterisation factors for human toxicity and ecotoxicity. The model is differentiated on the level of 239 countries/territories and 50 seas/oceans. Each region has its own set of homogeneous compartments, and the regions are interconnected by atmospheric and aquatic flows. Multimedia transport and degradation calculations are largely based on the EUSES 2.0 multimedia model, and are supplemented by specific equations to account for the advective air and water transport between different countries and/or seas. Metal-specific equations are added to account for speciation in fresh and marine surface water. Distribution parameters for multimedia transport equations are differentiated per country or sea with respect to geographic features, hydrology, and climate. The model has been tested with nitrobenzene as a test chemical, for emissions to all countries in the world. Spatially differentiated characterisation factors turn out to show wide ranges of variation between countries, especially for releases to inland water and soil compartments. Geographic position, distribution of lakes and rivers and variations in environmental temperature and rain rate are decisive parameters for a number of different characterisation factors. Population density and dietary intake play central roles in the variation of characterisation factors for human toxicity. Among the countries that show substantial deviations from average values of the characterisation factors are not only small and remote islands, but also countries with a significant economic production rate, as indicated by their GDPs. It is concluded that spatial differentiation between countries is an important step forward with respect to the improvement of LCA toxicity characterisation factors.

Spatial variability of intake fractions for Canadian emission scenarios: a comparison between three resolution scales

Spatially differentiated intake fractions (iFs) linked to Canadian emissions of toxic organic chemicals were developed using the multimedia and multipathways fate and exposure model IMPACT 2002. The fate and exposure of chemicals released to the Canadian environment were modeled with a single regional mass-balance model and three models that provided multiple mass-balance regions within Canada. These three models were based on the Canadian subwatersheds (172 zones), ecozones (15 zones), and provinces (13 zones). Releases of 32 organic chemicals into water and air were considered. This was done in order to (i) assess and compare the spatial variability of iFs within and across the three levels of regionalization and (ii) compare the spatial iFs to nonspatial ones. Results showed that iFs calculated using the subwatershed resolution presented a higher spatial variability (up to 10 orders of magnitude for emissions into water) than the ones based on the ecozones and provinces, implying that higher spatial resolution could potentially reduce uncertainty in iFs and, therefore, increase the discriminating power when assessing and comparing toxic releases for known emission locations. Results also indicated that, for an unknown emission location, a model with high spatial resolution such as the subwatershed model could significantly improve the accuracy of a generic iF. Population weighted iFs span up to 3 orders of magnitude compared to nonspatial iFs calculated by the one-box model. Less significant differences were observed when comparing spatial versus nonspatial iFs from the ecozones and provinces, respectively.

Assessing regional intake fractions in North America

This paper develops the IMPACT North America model, a spatially resolved multimedia, multi-pathway, fate, exposure and effect model that includes indoor and urban compartments. IMPACT North America allows geographic differentiation of population exposure of toxic emissions for comparative risk assessment and life cycle impact assessment within U.S. and Canada. It looks at air, water, soil, sediment and vegetation media, and divides North America into several hundred zones. It is nested within a single world box to account for emissions leaving North America. It is a multi-scale model, covering three different spatial scales--indoor, urban and regional--in all zones in North America. Model results are evaluated against monitored emissions and concentrations of benzo(a)pyrene, 2,3,7,8-TCDD and mercury. Most of the chemical concentrations predicted by the model fall within two orders of magnitude of the monitored data. The model shows that urban intake fractions are one order of magnitude higher than rural intake fractions. The model application and importance is demonstrated by a case study on spatially-distributed emissions over the life cycle of diesel fuel. Depending on population densities and agricultural intensities, intake fractions can vary by eight orders of magnitudes, and even limited indoor emissions can lead to intakes comparable to those from outdoor emissions. To accurately assess these variations in intake fraction, we require the essential three original features described in the present paper: i) inclusion of the continental model within a world box for persistent pollutants, ii) addition of an urban box for short- and medium-lived substances (for grid size larger than 100 km), and iii) assess indoor emissions. This model can therefore be used to screen chemicals and assess regionalized intake fractions within North America for population-based human exposure assessment, life cycle impact assessment, and comparative risk assessment. The model can be downloaded at http://www.impactmodeling.org.

Local and distant residence times of contaminants in multi-compartment models. Part II: application to assessing environmental mobility and long-range atmospheric transport

In Part I, the concepts of inherent, local and distant residence times (DRTs) were reviewed as metrics of the extent to which chemical discharges or emissions in one region or box are transported to distant regions. In this second part, the concepts are applied to geographically relevant systems to illustrate their applicability to the assessment of chemicals for long-range transport potential (LRTP). It is shown that the relative ranking of chemicals as characterized by the DRT method is similar to that of the characteristic travel distance concept. A DRT source-receptor matrix is developed that can express the chemical-specific potential of source regions to contaminate a specific receptor region of concern such as the Arctic. The matrix can be modified to identify for a specific source region the likely destinations of emissions as well as to assess the relative vulnerability of regions in the global environment to contaminants of concern.

Local and distant residence times of contaminants in multi-compartment models. Part I: a review of the theoretical basis

In this, Part I of a two-part series, a review is presented of some generally appreciated residence time properties of multimedia models. The novel concept of "distant residence time" (DRT) is developed to provide additional insights into the characterization of environmental transport. DRT is the proportionality constant between the rate of emission of a contaminant into one compartment or region and the mass that results at steady-state in a distant compartment. The concept, which can be viewed as an expression of environmental mobility, is illustrated for various configurations of compartments and is shown to be consistent with the concepts of global fractionation and cold condensation. The dynamic responses of chemical quantities at distant locations to changing emission rates are also discussed. It is shown that approximate solutions for DRTs and their time dependence are useful for characterizing the long-range transport of chemicals and for interpreting monitoring data.

A GIS-based approach for modeling the fate and transport of pollutants in Europe

This paper presents an approach to estimate chemical concentration in multiple environmental media (soil, water, and the atmosphere) with the sole use of basic geographical information system (GIS) operations and, particularly, map algebra. This allows solving mass balance equations in a different way from the traditional methods involving numerical or analytical solution of systems of equations, producing maps of chemical fluxes and concentrations only through combinations of maps of emissions and environmental removal or transfer rates. Benchmarking with the well-established EMEP MSCE-POP model shows that the method provides consistent results with this more detailed description. When available, experimental evidence equally supports the proposed method in relation to the more complex approaches.

Global fate of POPs: current and future research directions

For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately.

Assessing the influence of climate variability on atmospheric concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls using a global-scale mass balance model (BETR-global)

We introduce a new global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model (the Berkeley-Trent Global Model; BETR-Global) that integrates global climate data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). BETR-Global represents the global environment as a connected set of 288 multimedia regions on a 15 degrees grid. We evaluate the model by simulating the global fate and transport of seven PCB congeners over a 70 year period and find satisfactory agreement between model output and observations of atmospheric PCB concentrations at 11 long-term monitoring stations in the Northern Hemisphere. We demonstrate the use of the model as a tool for understanding global pollutant dynamics by examining the hypothesis that variability in global-scale climate conditions, as reflected bythe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), influences atmospheric PCB concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. We estimate that the maximum variability in atmospheric PCB concentrations attributable to NAO variability is approximately a factor of 2. The influence of variability in the NAO on PCB concentrations in air is most likely to be observed in the winter and spring at monitoring sites in Northern Europe and the Arctic. Analysis of long-term monitoring data from 11 sites shows some statistically significant relationships between NAO indices and atmospheric PCB concentrations during the winter and spring. Giving consideration to competing factors that influence atmospheric PCB concentrations, longer time series of monitoring data are required to fully evaluate the modeling results and to improve our understanding of the role of climate variability on the long-term fate of persistent semivolatile pollutants.

Modern and historical fluxes of halogenated organic contaminants to a lake in the Canadian arctic, as determined from annually laminated sediment cores

Two annually laminated cores collected from Lake DV09 on Devon Island in May 1999 were dated using 210Pb and 137Cs, and analyzed for a variety of halogenated organic contaminants (HOCs), including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides, short-chain polychlorinated n-alkanes (sPCAs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Dry weight HOC concentrations in Lake DV09 sediments were generally similar to other remote Arctic lakes. Maximum HOC fluxes often agreed well with production maxima, although many compound groups exhibited maxima at or near the sediment surface, much later than peak production. The lower than expected HOC concentrations in older sediment slices may be due to anaerobic degradation and possibly to dilution resulting from a temporary increase in sedimentation rate observed between the mid-1960s and 1970s. Indeed, temporal trends were more readily apparent for those compound classes when anaerobic metabolites were also analyzed, such as for DDT and toxaphene. However, it is postulated here for the first time that the maximum or increasing HOC surface fluxes observed for many of the major compound classes in DV09 sediments may be influenced by climate variation and the resulting increase in algal primary productivity which could drive an increasing rate of HOC scavenging from the water column. Both the fraction (F(TC)) and enantiomer fraction (EF) of trans-chlordane (TC) decreased significantly between 1957 and 1997, suggesting that recent inputs to the lake are from weathered chlordane sources. PCDD/Fs showed a change in sources from pentachlorophenol (PeCP) in the 1950s and 1960s to combustion sources into the 1990s. Improvements in combustion technology may be responsible for the reducing the proportion of TCDF relative to OCDD in the most recent slice.

Quantifying the fate of mercury in the Great Lakes Basin: toward an ecosystem approach

We argue that the need to reduce human exposure to mercury in the Great Lakes Basin and thus reduce the risk of adverse effects can be accomplished only by reducing the quantity of all mercury species cycling in the ecosystem. It is pointed out that much can be learned from experiences with PCBs. PCB concentrations and exposures have been reduced, in part, because a clear picture has been established of relative sources and PCB' s environmental fate in the form of mass balance models, which document the "big picture" of PCB behavior at a range of scales. It is suggested that a similar strategy is needed for mercury as part of the effort to protect human health throughout the entire Great Lakes ecosystem.

Evidence for the "grasshopper" effect and fractionation during long-range atmospheric transport of organic contaminants

Although there is indisputable evidence that long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) of organic contaminants occurs on a global scale, uncertainties remain about the detailed mechanism and extent of this phenomenon as well as the physical-chemical properties which facilitate LRAT. In this study, we discuss how mass balance models and monitoring data can contribute to a fuller understanding of the mechanism and extent of LRAT. Specifically we address the issues of "grasshopping" or "hopping" (the extent to which molecules are subject to multiple hops as distinct from a single emission-deposition event) and "global fractionation" (the differing behavior of chemicals as they are transported). It is shown that simple mass balance models can be used to assist the interpretation of monitoring data while also providing an instrument that can be used to assess the LRAT potential and the extent of hopping that organic substances may experience. The available evidence supports the notion that many persistent organic pollutants experience varying degrees of "hopping" during their environmental journey and as a consequence become fractionated with distance from source.