Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States

Atmospheric reduced nitrogen: Sources, transformations, effects, and management

Human activities have increased atmospheric emissions and deposition of oxidized and reduced forms of nitrogen, but emission control programs have largely focused on oxidized nitrogen. As a result, in many regions of the world emissions of oxidized nitrogen are decreasing while emissions of reduced nitrogen are increasing. Emissions of reduced nitrogen largely originate from livestock waste and fertilizer application, with contributions from transportation sources in urban areas. Observations suggest a discrepancy between trends in emissions and deposition of reduced nitrogen in the U.S., likely due to an underestimate in emissions. In the atmosphere, ammonia reacts with oxides of sulfur and nitrogen to form fine particulate matter that impairs health and visibility and affects climate forcings. Recent reductions in emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides have limited partitioning with ammonia, decreasing long-range transport. Continuing research is needed to improve understanding of how shifting emissions alter formation of secondary particulates and patterns of transport and deposition of reactive nitrogen. Satellite remote sensing has potential for monitoring atmospheric concentrations and emissions of ammonia, but there remains a need to maintain and strengthen ground-based measurements and continue development of chemical transport models. Elevated nitrogen deposition has decreased plant and soil microbial biodiversity and altered the biogeochemical function of terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems. Further study is needed on differential effects of oxidized versus reduced nitrogen and pathways and timescales of ecosystem recovery from elevated nitrogen deposition. Decreases in deposition of reduced nitrogen could alleviate exceedances of critical loads for terrestrial and freshwater indicators in many U.S. areas. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should consider using critical loads as a basis for setting standards to protect public welfare and ecosystems. The U.S. and other countries might look to European experience for approaches to control emissions of reduced nitrogen from agricultural and transportation sectors.Implications: In this Critical Review we synthesize research on effects, air emissions, environmental transformations, and management of reduced forms of nitrogen. Emissions of reduced nitrogen affect human health, the structure and function of ecosystems, and climatic forcings. While emissions of oxidized forms of nitrogen are regulated in the U.S., controls on reduced forms are largely absent. Decreases in emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides coupled with increases in ammonia are shifting the gas-particle partitioning of ammonia and decreasing long-range atmospheric transport of reduced nitrogen. Effort is needed to understand, monitor, and manage emissions of reduced nitrogen in a changing environment.

Modeled Vegetation Community Trajectories: Effects from Climate Change, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition, and Soil Acidification Recovery

Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model - based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered "unattainable" in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.

The effects of Intensive Supervision Mechanism on air quality improvement in China

The Intensive Supervision Mechanism (hereafter referred to as ISM) is one of the most important institutional management innovations for air pollution control in China, but there is currently no consensus on the effects of the ISM on air quality improvement. In this study, a reliable quantitative model based on the Difference-in-Differences (DID) analysis was designed to evaluate the impacts of ISM on air quality (as indicated by good air quality days (hereafter referred to as GAD) and the concentrations of six major air pollutants (i.e. PM_2.5, PM₁₀, O₃_8H, NO₂, SO₂, and CO)), in China with focuses on the implementation cities of Henan Province. To optimize the model design, six meteorological factors, five socio-economic indicators, and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) data were also considered as alternative control variables for more comprehensive and effective results. In addition, the redundancy analysis (RDA) and Monte Carlo simulation were conducted to determine the optimal combination of those control variables which can best reflect the changes in explanatory variables. The main findings are as follows: (1) the statistical model applied in this study can well evaluate the impacts of ISM; (2) the implementation of ISM can significantly reduce the concentrations of SO_2, CO, and NO₂, but the improvements for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, GAD and O₃_8H were not significant. (3) the potential for air quality improvement due to ISM tends to be reduced over time, and thus the positive effects of ISM at its second stage were not increased significantly compared with those observed during its first stage. In general, those results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of ISM on air quality improvement, but also provide insights into how the ISM can be optimized to gain a sustained improvement of the ambient air quality in the future.Implications: As a policy measure implemented by the Chinese government, the Intensive Supervision Mechanism (ISM) has significantly contributed to the improvement of air quality since its execution. However, the potential for air quality improvement due to ISM tends to be reduced over time, and thus the positive effects of ISM at its second stage were not increased significantly compared with those observed during its first stage. In addition, the implementation of ISM requires a large amount of financial investment, and thus has limited sustainability. Considering the increased difficulty of this policy instrument, whether to insist on the ISM warrants further analyses on its cost and effectiveness. More importantly, more targeted measures of ISM should be applied to decrease the ozone concentration in the future.

Fuel cells for carbon capture applications

The harmful effect of carbon pollution leads to depletion of the ozone layer, which is one of the main challenges confronting the world. Although progress is made in developing different carbon dioxide (CO₂) capturing methods, these methods are still expensive and face several technical challenges. Fuel cells (FCs) are efficient energy converting devices that produce energy via an electrochemical process. Recently varying kinds of fuel cells are considered as an effective method for CO₂ capturing and/or conversion. Among the different types of fuel cells, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs), and microbial fuel cells (MFCs) demonstrated promising results in this regard. High-temperature fuel cells such as SOFCs and MCFCs are effectively used for CO₂ capturing through their electrolyte and have shown promising results in combination with power plants or industrial effluents. An algae-based microbial fuel cell is an electrochemical device used to capture and convert carbon dioxide through the photosynthesis process using algae strains to organic matters and simultaneously power generation. This review present a brief background about carbon capture and storage techniques and the technological advancement related to carbon dioxide captured by different fuel cells, including molten carbonate fuel cells, solid oxide fuel cells, and algae-based fuel cells.

Assessing critical load exceedances and ecosystem impacts of anthropogenic nitrogen and sulphur deposition at unmanaged forested catchments in Europe

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds and their long-range transport have caused widespread negative impacts on different ecosystems. Critical loads (CLs) are deposition thresholds used to describe the sensitivity of ecosystems to atmospheric deposition. The CL methodology has been a key science-based tool for assessing the environmental consequences of air pollution. We computed CLs for eutrophication and acidification using a European long-term dataset of intensively studied forested ecosystem sites (n = 17) in northern and central Europe. The sites belong to the ICP IM and eLTER networks. The link between the site-specific calculations and time-series of CL exceedances and measured site data was evaluated using long-term measurements (1990-2017) for bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff water chemistry. Novel techniques for presenting exceedances of CLs and their temporal development were also developed. Concentrations and fluxes of sulphate, total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and acidity in deposition substantially decreased at the sites. Decreases in S deposition resulted in statistically significant decreased concentrations and fluxes of sulphate in runoff and decreasing trends of TIN in runoff were more common than increasing trends. The temporal developments of the exceedance of the CLs indicated the more effective reductions of S deposition compared to N at the sites. There was a relation between calculated exceedance of the CLs and measured runoff water concentrations and fluxes, and most sites with higher CL exceedances showed larger decreases in both TIN and H⁺ concentrations and fluxes. Sites with higher cumulative exceedance of eutrophication CLs (averaged over 3 and 30 years) generally showed higher TIN concentrations in runoff. The results provided evidence on the link between CL exceedances and empirical impacts, increasing confidence in the methodology used for the European-scale CL calculations. The results also confirm that emission abatement actions are having their intended effects on CL exceedances and ecosystem impacts.

Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale

Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.

How will air quality effects on human health, crops and ecosystems change in the future?

Future air quality will be driven by changes in air pollutant emissions, but also changes in climate. Here, we review the recent literature on future air quality scenarios and projected changes in effects on human health, crops and ecosystems. While there is overlap in the scenarios and models used for future projections of air quality and climate effects on human health and crops, similar efforts have not been widely conducted for ecosystems. Few studies have conducted joint assessments across more than one sector. Improvements in future air quality effects on human health are seen in emission reduction scenarios that are more ambitious than current legislation. Larger impacts result from changing particulate matter (PM) abundances than ozone burdens. Future global health burdens are dominated by changes in the Asian region. Expected future reductions in ozone outside of Asia will allow for increased crop production. Reductions in PM, although associated with much higher uncertainty, could offset some of this benefit. The responses of ecosystems to air pollution and climate change are long-term, complex, and interactive, and vary widely across biomes and over space and time. Air quality and climate policy should be linked or at least considered holistically, and managed as a multi-media problem. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.