Reductions in crop yields across China from elevated ozone

Long-term trajectory of ozone impact on maize and soybean yields in the United States: A 40-year spatial-temporal analysis

Understanding the long-term change trends of ozone-induced yield losses is crucial for formulating strategies to alleviate ozone damaging effects, aiming towards achieving the Zero Hunger Sustainable Development Goal. Despite a wealth of experimental research indicating that ozone's influence on agricultural production exhibits marked fluctuations and differs significantly across various geographical locations, previous studies using global statistical models often failed to capture this spatial-temporal variability, leading to uncertainties in ozone impact estimation. To address this issue, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the spatial-temporal variability of ozone impacts on maize and soybean yields in the United States (1981-2021) using a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. Our results revealed that over the past four decades, ozone pollution has led to average yield losses of -3.5% for maize and -6.1% for soybean, translating into an annual economic loss of approximately $2.6 billion. Interestingly, despite an overall downward trend in ozone impacts on crop yields following the implementation of stringent ozone emission control measures in 1997, our study identified distinct peaks of abnormally high yield reduction rates in drought years. Significant spatial heterogeneity was detected in ozone impacts across the study area, with ozone damage hotspots located in the Southeast Region and the Mississippi River Basin for maize and soybean, respectively. Furthermore, we discovered that hydrothermal factors modulate crop responses to ozone, with maize showing an inverted U-shaped yield loss trend with temperature increases, while soybean demonstrated an upward trend. Both crops experienced amplified ozone-induced yield losses with rising precipitation. Overall, our study highlights the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal variability into assessments of crop yield losses attributable to ozone pollution. The insights garnered from our findings can contribute to the formulation of region-specific pollutant emission policies, based on the distinct profiles of ozone-induced agricultural damage across different regions.

Rebuilding high-quality near-surface ozone data based on the combination of WRF-Chem model with a machine learning method to better estimate its impact on crop yields in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2014 to 2019

In recent years, the problem of surface ozone pollution in China has been of great concern. According to observation data from monitoring stations, the concentration of near-surface ozone (O3) in China has gradually increased in recent years, and ozone concentration often exceeds the contaminant limit standard, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. High O3 concentration pollution will adversely affect crop growth, which can cause crop yield losses. Therefore, it is urgent to recognize the situation of ozone pollution in the BTH region and quantitatively evaluate the crop yield losses caused by ozone pollution to develop more effective pollution prevention and control policies. However, the monitoring of ozone concentration in China started relatively late compared with some developed countries, and currently, long-time series data covering the BTH region cannot be obtained, which makes it difficult to evaluate the impact of ozone on crop yield. Therefore, a new method (WRFC-XGB) was proposed in this study to establish a high-precision near-surface O3 concentration dataset covering the whole BTH region from 2014 to 2019 by integrating the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model with the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm. Through verification with ground observation station data, the results of WRFC-XGB are satisfactory, and R2 can reach 0.78-0.91. Compared with other algorithms, the accuracy of the near-surface ozone concentration dataset is greatly improved, which can be used to estimate the impact of surface ozone on crop yield. Based on this dataset, the yield loss of winter wheat, rice, and maize caused by O3 pollution was estimated by using the response equation of the relative yield and ozone dose index. The results showed that the total yield losses of winter wheat, rice and maize from 2014 to 2019 were 2659.21 million tons, 49.23 million tons and 1721.56 million tons due to ozone pollution in the BTH region, respectively, and the highest relative yield loss of crops caused by O3 pollution could be 29.37% during 2014-2019, which indicated that the impact of ozone pollution on crop yield cannot be ignored, and effective measures need to be developed to control ozone pollution, prevent crop production loss, and ensure people's food security.

A regional scale flux-based O3 risk assessment for winter wheat in northern Italy, and effects of different spatio-temporal resolutions

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a secondary atmospheric pollutant known to cause negative effects on vegetation in terms of physiological oxidative stress, growth rate reductions and yield losses. In recent years, dose-response relationships based on the O3 stomatal flux and effects on the biomass growth have been defined for several crop species. This study was aimed at developing a dual-sink big-leaf model for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to map the seasonal Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold of 6nmolm-2s-1 (POD6) in a domain centered on the Lombardy region (Italy). The model runs on local measured data of air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, global radiation and background O3 concentration provided by regional monitoring networks, and includes parameterizations for the crop's geometry and phenology, the light penetration within the canopy, the stomatal conductance, the atmospheric turbulence, and the soil water availability for the plants. For the 2017 an average POD6 of 2.03mmolm-2PLA (Projected Leaf Area) was found for the Lombardy regional domain, corresponding to an average relative yield loss of 7.5%, using the finest spatio-temporal resolution (1×1km2 and 1-h). An analysis of the model's response to different spatio-temporal resolutions (from 2×2 to 50×50km2 and from 1 to 6 h) suggests that coarser resolution maps underestimated the average POD6 regional value from 8to16%, and were unable to detect O3 hotspots. Nevertheless, resolutions of 5×5km2 1-h, and 1×1km2 3-h, can still be considered reliable for the estimation of the O3 risk at the regional level since they presented relatively low root mean squared error. Furthermore, although temperature was the main limiting factor for the wheat stomatal conductance in most of the domain, soil water availability emerged as the key factor for determining the spatial patterns of the POD6.

Chemical drivers of ozone change in extreme temperatures in eastern China

Surface ozone pollution has become the biggest issue in China's air pollution since particulate matters have been improved in the atmosphere. Compared with normal winter/summer, extremely cold/hot weather sustained several days and nights by unfavorable meteorology is more impactful in this regard. However, ozone changes in extreme temperatures and their driving processes remain rarely understood. Here, we combine comprehensive observational data analysis and 0-D box models to quantify the contributions of different chemical processes and precursors to ozone change in these unique environments. Analyses of radical cycling indicate that temperature accelerates OH-HO₂-RO₂, optimizing ozone production efficiency in higher temperatures. The HO₂ + NO → OH + NO₂ reaction was the most influenced by temperature change, followed by OH + VOCs → HO₂/RO₂. Although most reactions in ozone formation increased with temperature, the increase in ozone production rates was greater than the rate of ozone loss, leading to a fast net ozone accumulation in heat waves. Our results also show that the ozone sensitivity regime is VOC-limited in extreme temperatures, highlighting the significance of volatile organic compound (VOC) control (particularly the control of alkenes and aromatics). In the context of global warming and climate change, this study helps us deeply understand ozone formation in extreme environments and design abatement policies for ozone pollution in such conditions.

Changes in tropospheric air quality related to the protection of stratospheric ozone in a changing climate

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation drives the net production of tropospheric ozone (O3) and a large fraction of particulate matter (PM) including sulfate, nitrate, and secondary organic aerosols. Ground-level O3 and PM are detrimental to human health, leading to several million premature deaths per year globally, and have adverse effects on plants and the yields of crops. The Montreal Protocol has prevented large increases in UV radiation that would have had major impacts on air quality. Future scenarios in which stratospheric O3 returns to 1980 values or even exceeds them (the so-called super-recovery) will tend to ameliorate urban ground-level O3 slightly but worsen it in rural areas. Furthermore, recovery of stratospheric O3 is expected to increase the amount of O3 transported into the troposphere by meteorological processes that are sensitive to climate change. UV radiation also generates hydroxyl radicals (OH) that control the amounts of many environmentally important chemicals in the atmosphere including some greenhouse gases, e.g., methane (CH4), and some short-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Recent modeling studies have shown that the increases in UV radiation associated with the depletion of stratospheric ozone over 1980-2020 have contributed a small increase (~ 3%) to the globally averaged concentrations of OH. Replacements for ODSs include chemicals that react with OH radicals, hence preventing the transport of these chemicals to the stratosphere. Some of these chemicals, e.g., hydrofluorocarbons that are currently being phased out, and hydrofluoroolefins now used increasingly, decompose into products whose fate in the environment warrants further investigation. One such product, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), has no obvious pathway of degradation and might accumulate in some water bodies, but is unlikely to cause adverse effects out to 2100.

Impacts of meteorological factors and ozone variation on crop yields in China concerning carbon neutrality objectives in 2060

Carbon neutrality objectives affect meteorology and ozone (O₃) concentration in China, both of which would influence crop yields, thus food security. However, the joint impact of these two factors on crop yields in China is not clear. In this study, we investigated future trends in China's maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields under a carbon-neutral scenario considering both regional emission reduction and global climate change in 2060. By combining a process-based crop model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) with O₃ exposure equations, the impacts of regional emission reduction and global climate change were studied. The results suggest that regional emission reduction dominated the increase in yield by reducing the O₃ concentration, whereas global climate change led to yield loss mainly through meteorological factors. The national yield decreases for the four crops ranged from 1.0% to 38.0% owing to meteorological factors, while O₃ reduction resulted in additional yield increases ranging from 2.8% to 7.0%. The combined effect of carbon neutrality, which included both meteorological factors and O₃ concentration, resulted in changes to the yields of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat of +4.3%, -7.3%, -24.0%, and -31.7%, respectively. It seems that crop production loss caused by meteorological factors in 2060 would be mitigated by the O₃ reduction. Given the advantages of declining O₃ concentration, regional emission reduction would likely benefit crop growth. However, global climate change may offset the benefits and threaten food production in China. Therefore, more strict emission reduction policies and global climate change mitigation actions are necessary to ensure food security in China.

Maize yield reduction and economic losses caused by ground-level ozone pollution with exposure- and flux-response relationships in the North China Plain

Ground-level ozone (O₃) has negative effects on agricultural crops. Maize is an important grain crop in China. The North China Plain (NCP) serves as the major crops' production area of China and experiences severe ozone pollution. Using the ground-level ozone simulated by an atmospheric chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem), we quantified the yield reduction and economic losses of maize during 2015-2018 over NCP based on exposure-response AOT40 (accumulation of hourly O₃ concentration exceed 40 ppb) and flux-response POD₆ (phytotoxic dose of ozone over 6 nmol m^-2 s^-1). Results showed that the ozone concentration, AOT40, and POD₆ clearly increased from 2015 to 2018 in growing season of maize over NCP. The four-year annual mean ozone concentration, AOT40, and POD₆ were 0.055 ppm, 18.02 ppm h, and 5.02 mmol m^-2, respectively. At county level, the relative loss of maize yield (MRYL) based on AOT40 and POD₆ had clearly spatio-temporal differences in NCP. The average MRYLs of AOT40 and of POD₆ from 2015 to 2018 were 10.4% and 21.4%, respectively, and these reductions were associated with 2399 million and 5637 million US dollars, respectively. This study suggests that surface ozone increased the yield losses of maize, and indicates that further reductions in ozone concentrations can enhance the food security in China.

Projecting ozone impact on crop yield in Taiwan under climate warming

Ozone is a primary air pollutant that impairs photosynthesis and reduces crop yields, an effect that received little attention in Taiwan, especially under the context of climate warming. This study predicted the impact of surface O₃ on cash crop yields, specifically in wheat, potatoes, and tomatoes, under 2 °C and 4 °C climate warming scenarios in Taiwan via high-resolution simulations. The simulated O₃ concentration (daytime mean) over Taiwan's croplands during the growing seasons was around 35-52 ppb, and it increased by 0.9 and 2.1 ppb under 2 °C and 4 °C warming for wheat and potatoes. In contrast, more minor changes of around 0.4 ppb were found for tomatoes. The O₃ concentrations were converted to AOT₄₀ (Accumulated Ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) and POD₃ (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold of 3 nmol O₃ m^-2) metrics to estimate changes in relative yield (RY). The mean RY_POD3 (RY_AOT40) reductions over irrigated cropland for wheat, tomatoes, and potatoes under current climate and O₃-stress conditions are 27.5 % (19.1 %), 14.7 % (3.8 %), and 8.2 % (1.6 %), respectively. Under 2 °C warming, the additional reductions would be 2.7 % (1.8 %) for wheat, 4.1 % (0.3 %) for tomatoes, and 2.4 % (0.4 %) for potatoes; the values under 4 °C warming become 4.7 % (4.1 %) for wheat, 8.1 % (0.6 %) for tomatoes, and 5.2 % (0.8 %) for potatoes. The contribution of RY_POD3 reduction was separated into O₃-induced and climate-induced effects. The former dominated the additional yield reduction under a 2 °C warming climate, yet, the latter prevailed under 4 °C warming. Further analysis indicated that the temperature rise enhances ozone uptake flux; still, the amplified water vapor deficit and more incoming solar radiation can offset it and weakens the overall meteorological effect, especially from 2 °C to 4 °C warming conditions. Such effects demonstrated a nonlinear effect related to the co-dependence of the ozone uptake flux, which requires attention in agriculture policymaking.