Transmission on empirical dynamic contact networks is influenced by data processing decisions

Analysis of within-pen and between-pen fenceline temporal contact networks in confined feedlot cattle

Though contact networks are important for describing the dynamics for disease transmission and intervention applications, individual animal contact and barriers between animal populations, such as fences, are not often utilized in the construction of these models. The objective of this study was to use contact network analysis to quantify contacts within two confined pens of feedlot cattle and the shared "fenceline" area between the pens at varying temporal resolutions and contact duration to better inform the construction of network-based disease transmission models for cattle within confined-housing systems. Two neighboring pens of feedlot steers were tagged with Real-Time Location System (RTLS) tags. Within-pen contacts were defined with a spatial threshold (SpTh) of 0.71 m and a minimum contact duration (MCD) of either 10 seconds (10 s), 30 seconds (30 s), or 60 seconds (60 s). For the fenceline network location readings were included within an area extending from 1 m on either side of the shared fence. "Fenceline" contacts could only occur between a steer from each pen. Static, undirected, weighted contact networks for within-pen networks and the between-pen network were generated for the full study duration and for daily (24-h), 6-h period, and hourly networks to better assess network heterogeneity. For the full study duration network, the two within-pen networks were densely homogenous. The within-pen networks showed more heterogeneity when smaller timescales (6-h period and hourly) were applied. When contacts were defined with a MCD of 30 s or 60 s, the total number of contacts seen in each network decreased, indicating that most of the contacts observed in our networks may have been transient passing contacts. Cosine similarity was moderate and stable across days for within pen networks. Of the 90 total tagged steers between the two pens, 86 steers (46 steers from Pen 2 and 40 steers from Pen 3) produced at least one contact across the shared fenceline. The total network density for the network created across the shared fenceline between the two pens was 17%, with few contacts at shorter timescales and for MCD of 30 s or 60 s. Overall, the contact networks created here from high-resolution spatial and temporal contact observation data provide estimates for a contact network within commercial US feedlot pens and the contact network created between two neighboring pens of cattle. These networks can be used to better inform pathogen transmission models on social contact networks.

Social behaviour and transmission of lameness in a flock of ewes and lambs

INTRODUCTION

Sheep have heterogenous social connections that influence transmission of some infectious diseases. Footrot is one of the top five globally important diseases of sheep, it is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus and transmits between sheep when infectious feet contaminate surfaces, e.g., pasture. Surfaces remain infectious for a few minutes to a few days, depending on surface moisture levels. Susceptible sheep in close social contact with infectious sheep might be at risk of becoming infected because they are likely to step onto infectious footprints, particularly dams and lambs, as they cluster together.

METHODS

High resolution proximity sensors were deployed on 40 ewes and their 54 lambs aged 5-27 days, in a flock with endemic footrot in Devon, UK for 13 days. Sheep locomotion was scored daily by using a 0-6 integer scale. Sheep were defined lame when their locomotion score (LS) was ≥2, and a case of lameness was defined as LS ≥2 for ≥2 days.

RESULTS

Thirty-two sheep (19 ewes, 9 single, and 4 twin lambs) became lame during the study, while 14 (5 ewes, 5 single, and 4 twin lambs) were lame initially. These 46 sheep were from 29 family groups, 14 families had >1 lame sheep, and transmission from ewes to lambs was bidirectional. At least 15% of new cases of footrot were from within family transmission; the occurrence of lameness was higher in single than twin lambs. At least 4% of transmission was due to close contact across the flock. Most close contact occurred within families. Single and twin lambs spent 1.5 and 0.9 hours/day with their dams, respectively, and twin lambs spent 3.7 hours/day together. Non-family sheep spent only 0.03 hours/day in contact. Lame single lambs and ewes spent less time with non-family sheep, and lame twin lambs spent less time with family sheep.

DISCUSSION

We conclude that most transmission of lameness is not attributable to close contact. However, in ewes with young lambs, some transmission occurs within families and is likely due to time spent in close contact, since single lambs spent more time with their dam than twin lambs and were more likely to become lame.

Combining epidemiological and ecological methods to quantify social effects on Escherichia coli transmission

Enteric microparasites like Escherichia coli use multiple transmission pathways to propagate within and between host populations. Characterizing the relative transmission risk attributable to host social relationships and direct physical contact between individuals is paramount for understanding how microparasites like E. coli spread within affected communities and estimating colonization rates. To measure these effects, we carried out commensal E. coli transmission experiments in two cattle (Bos taurus) herds, wherein all individuals were equipped with real-time location tracking devices. Following transmission experiments in this model system, we derived temporally dynamic social and contact networks from location data. Estimated social affiliations and dyadic contact frequencies during transmission experiments informed pairwise accelerated failure time models that we used to quantify effects of these sociobehavioural variables on weekly E. coli colonization risk in these populations. We found that sociobehavioural variables alone were ultimately poor predictors of E. coli colonization in feedlot cattle, but can have significant effects on colonization hazard rates (p ≤ 0.05). We show, however, that observed effects were not consistent between similar populations. This work demonstrates that transmission experiments can be combined with real-time location data collection and processing procedures to create an effective framework for quantifying sociobehavioural effects on microparasite transmission.

Spatial and temporal variation in proximity networks of commercial dairy cattle in Great Britain

The nature of contacts between hosts can be important in facilitating or impeding the spread of pathogens within a population. Networks constructed from contacts between hosts allow examination of how individual variation might influence the spread of infections. Studying the contact networks of livestock species managed under different conditions can additionally provide insight into their influence on these contact structures. We collected high-resolution proximity and GPS location data from nine groups of domestic cattle (mean group size = 85) in seven dairy herds employing a range of grazing and housing regimes. Networks were constructed from cattle contacts (defined by proximity) aggregated by different temporal windows (2 h, 24 h, and approximately 1 week) and by location within the farm. Networks of contacts aggregated over the whole study were highly saturated but dividing contacts by space and time revealed substantial variation in cattle interactions. Cows showed statistically significant variation in the frequency of their contacts and in the number of cows with which they were in contact. When cows were in buildings, compared to being on pasture, contact durations were longer and cows contacted more other cows. A small number of cows showed evidence of consistent relationships but the majority of cattle did not. In one group where management allowed free access to all farm areas, cows showed asynchronous space use and, while at pasture, contacted fewer other cows and showed substantially greater between-individual variation in contacts than other groups. We highlight the degree to which variations in management (e.g. grazing access, milking routine) substantially alter cattle contact patterns, with potentially major implications for infection transmission and social interactions. In particular, where individual cows have free choice of their environment, the resulting contact networks may have a less-risky structure that could reduce the likelihood of direct transmission of infections.

Inferring environmental transmission using phylodynamics: a case-study using simulated evolution of an enteric pathogen

Indirect (environmental) and direct (host-host) transmission pathways cannot easily be distinguished when they co-occur in epidemics, particularly when they occur on similar time scales. Phylodynamic reconstruction is a potential approach to this problem that combines epidemiological information (temporal, spatial information) with pathogen whole-genome sequencing data to infer transmission trees of epidemics. However, factors such as differences in mutation and transmission rates between host and non-host environments may obscure phylogenetic inference from these methods. In this study, we used a network-based transmission model that explicitly models pathogen evolution to simulate epidemics with both direct and indirect transmission. Epidemics were simulated according to factorial combinations of direct/indirect transmission proportions, host mutation rates and conditions of environmental pathogen growth. Transmission trees were then reconstructed using the phylodynamic approach SCOTTI (structured coalescent transmission tree inference) and evaluated. We found that although insufficient diversity sets a lower bound on when accurate phylodynamic inferences can be made, transmission routes and assumed pathogen lifestyle affected pathogen population structure and subsequently influenced both reconstruction success and the likelihood of direct versus indirect pathways being reconstructed. We conclude that prior knowledge of the likely ecology and population structure of pathogens in host and non-host environments is critical to fully using phylodynamic techniques.

Modeling Infectious Diseases in Healthcare Network (MInD-Healthcare) Framework for Describing and Reporting Multidrug-resistant Organism and Healthcare-Associated Infections Agent-based Modeling Methods

Mathematical modeling of healthcare-associated infections and multidrug-resistant organisms improves our understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics and provides a framework for evaluating prevention strategies. One way of improving the communication among modelers is by providing a standardized way of describing and reporting models, thereby instilling confidence in the reproducibility and generalizability of such models. We updated the Overview, Design concepts, and Details protocol developed by Grimm et al [11] for describing agent-based models (ABMs) to better align with elements commonly included in healthcare-related ABMs. The Modeling Infectious Diseases in Healthcare Network (MInD-Healthcare) framework includes the following 9 key elements: (1) Purpose and scope; (2) Entities, state variables, and scales; (3) Initialization; (4) Process overview and scheduling; (5) Input data; (6) Agent interactions and organism transmission; (7) Stochasticity; (8) Submodels; and (9) Model verification, calibration, and validation. Our objective is that this framework will improve the quality of evidence generated utilizing these models.

Social network analysis of COVID-19 transmission in Karnataka, India

We used social network analysis (SNA) to study the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Karnataka, India, and to assess the potential of SNA as a tool for outbreak monitoring and control. We analysed contact tracing data of 1147 COVID-19 positive cases (mean age 34.91 years, 61.99% aged 11-40, 742 males), anonymised and made public by the Karnataka government. Software tools, Cytoscape and Gephi, were used to create SNA graphics and determine network attributes of nodes (cases) and edges (directed links from source to target patients). Outdegree was 1-47 for 199 (17.35%) nodes, and betweenness, 0.5-87 for 89 (7.76%) nodes. Men had higher mean outdegree and women, higher mean betweenness. Delhi was the exogenous source of 17.44% cases. Bangalore city had the highest caseload in the state (229, 20%), but comparatively low cluster formation. Thirty-four (2.96%) 'super-spreaders' (outdegree ⩾ 5) caused 60% of the transmissions. Real-time social network visualisation can allow healthcare administrators to flag evolving hotspots and pinpoint key actors in transmission. Prioritising these areas and individuals for rigorous containment could help minimise resource outlay and potentially achieve a significant reduction in COVID-19 transmission.

Accounting for space and uncertainty in real-time location system-derived contact networks

Point data obtained from real-time location systems (RTLSs) can be processed into animal contact networks, describing instances of interaction between tracked individuals. Proximity-based definitions of interanimal "contact," however, may be inadequate for describing epidemiologically and sociologically relevant interactions involving body parts or other physical spaces relatively far from tracking devices. This weakness can be overcome by using polygons, rather than points, to represent tracked individuals and defining "contact" as polygon intersections.We present novel procedures for deriving polygons from RTLS point data while maintaining distances and orientations associated with individuals' relocation events. We demonstrate the versatility of this methodology for network modeling using two contact network creation examples, wherein we use this procedure to create (a) interanimal physical contact networks and (b) a visual contact network. Additionally, in creating our networks, we establish another procedure to adjust definitions of "contact" to account for RTLS positional accuracy, ensuring all true contacts are likely captured and represented in our networks.Using the methods described herein and the associated R package we have developed, called contact, researchers can derive polygons from RTLS points. Furthermore, we show that these polygons are highly versatile for contact network creation and can be used to answer a wide variety of epidemiological, ethological, and sociological research questions.By introducing these methodologies and providing the means to easily apply them through the contact R package, we hope to vastly improve network-model realism and researchers' ability to draw inferences from RTLS data.