Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy transition

Markov chain-based impact analysis of the pandemic Covid-19 outbreak on global primary energy consumption mix

The historic evolution of global primary energy consumption (GPEC) mix, comprising of fossil (liquid petroleum, gaseous and coal fuels) and non-fossil (nuclear, hydro and other renewables) energy sources while highlighting the impact of the novel corona virus 2019 pandemic outbreak, has been examined through this study. GPEC data of 2005-2021 has been taken from the annually published reports by British Petroleum. The equilibrium state, a property of the classical predictive modeling based on Markov chain, is employed as an investigative tool. The pandemic outbreak has proved to be a blessing in disguise for global energy sector through, at least temporarily, reducing the burden on environment in terms of reducing demand for fossil energy sources. Some significant long term impacts of the pandemic occurred in second and third years (2021 and 2022) after its outbreak in 2019 rather than in first year (2020) like the penetration of other energy sources along with hydro and renewable ones in GPEC. Novelty of this research lies within the application of the equilibrium state feature of compositional Markov chain based prediction upon GPEC mix. The analysis into the past trends suggests the advancement towards a better global energy future comprising of cleaner fossil resources (mainly natural gas), along with nuclear, hydro and renewable ones in the long run.

The COVID-19 pandemic and energy transitions: Evidence from low-carbon power generation in China

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to a decline in carbon emissions or an improvement in air quality. Yet little is known about how the pandemic has affected the "low-carbon" energy transition. Here, using difference-in-differences (DID) models with historical controls, this study analyzed the overall impact of COVID-19 on China's low-carbon power generation and examined the COVID-19 effect on the direction of the energy transition with a monthly province-specific, source-specific dataset. It was found that the COVID-19 pandemic increased the low-carbon power generation by 4.59% (0.0648 billion kWh), mainly driven by solar and wind power generation, especially solar power generation. Heterogeneous effects indicate that the pandemic has accelerated the transition of the power generation mix and the primary energy mix from carbon-intensive energy to modern renewables (such as solar and wind power). Finally, this study put forward several policy implications, including the need to promote the long-term development of renewables, green recovery, and so on.

The effects of COVID-19 transmission on environmental sustainability and human health: Paving the way to ensure its sustainable management

The transmission dynamics and health risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are inextricably linked to ineract with environment, climate, air pollution, and meteorological conditions. The spread of COVID-19 infection can thus perturb the 'planetary health' and livelihood by exerting impacts on the temporal and spatial variabilities of environmental pollution. Prioritization of COVID-19 by the health-care sector has been posing a serious threat to economic progress while undermining the efforts to meet the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for environmental sustainability. Here, we review the multifaceted effects of COVID-19 with respect to environmental quality, climatic variables, SDGs, energy resilience, and sustainability programs. It is well perceived that COVID-19 may have long-lasting and profound effects on socio-economic systems, food security, livelihoods, and the 'nexus' indicators. To seek for the solution of these problems, consensus can be drawn to establish and ensure a sound health-care system, a sustainable environment, and a circular bioeconomy. A holistic analysis of COVID-19's effects on multiple sectors should help develop nature-based solutions, cleaner technologies, and green economic recovery plans to help maintain environmental sustainability, ecosystem resilience, and planetary health.

The uneven distribution of futurity: Slow emergencies and the event of COVID‐19

The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic strains conventional temporal imaginaries through which emergencies are typically understood and governed. Rather than a transparent and linear temporality, a smooth transition across the series event/disruption–response–post‐event recovery, the pandemic moves in fits and starts, blurring the boundary between normalcy and emergency. This distended temporality brings into sharp relief other slow emergencies such as racism, poverty, biodiversity loss, and climate change, which inflect how the pandemic is known and governed as an emergency. In this article, we reflect on COVID‐19 responses in two settler colonial societies—Australia and the United States—to consider how distinct styles of pandemic responses in each context resonate and dissonate across the racially uneven distribution of futurity that structures liberal order. In each case, the event of COVID‐19 has indeed opened a window that reveals multiple slow emergencies; yet in these and other responses this revelation is not leading to meaningful changes to address underlying forms of structural violence. In Australia and the United States, we see how specific slow emergencies—human‐induced climate change and anti‐Black violence in White supremacist societies, respectively—become intensified as liberal order recalibrates itself in response to the event of COVID‐19.

The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic is revealing the limits of conventional temporal imaginaries through which emergencies are known and governed. Examples from Australia and the United States demonstrate how pandemic responses in settler colonial societies are reinforcing racially uneven claims on futurity. Rather than leading to meaningful change to address underlying structural violence, these distinct styles of emergency response are instead reinforcing racism, poverty, biodiversity loss, and climate change that conditioned the pandemic’s emergence and its uneven socio‐spatial impacts.

Smart energy systems beyond the age of COVID-19: Towards a new order of monitoring, disciplining and sanctioning energy behavior?

The Corona pandemic has led to the increased use of online tools throughout society, whether in business, education, or daily life. This shift to an online society has led social scientists to question the extent to which increased forms of control, surveillance and enforced conformity to ways of thinking, attitudes and behaviors can be promoted through online activities. This question arises overtly amidst a pandemic, but it also lurks behind the widespread diffusion of smart energy systems throughout the world and the increased use of smart meters in those systems. The extent to which forms of monitoring, disciplining and sanctioning of energy behavior and practices could come to reality is thus an important question to consider. This article does so using the ideas of Michel Foucault, together with research on smart energy systems and current trends in energy policy. The article closes with a discussion of energy democracy and democratic legitimacy in the context of possible effects of smart technologies on community energy systems.

Energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling for the EU energy and post-COVID-19 transitions

Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions' reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability.

Travel Bubbles in Air Transportation: Myth or Reality?

Aviation has been hit hard by COVID-19, with passengers stranded in remote destinations, airlines filing for bankruptcy, and uncertain demand scenarios for the future. Travel bubbles are discussed as one possible solution, meaning countries which have successfully constrained the spread of COVID-19 gradually increase their mutual international flights, returning to a degree of normality. This study aims to answer the question of whether travel bubbles are indeed observable in flight data for the year 2020. We take the year 2019 as reference and then search for anomalies in countries’ flight bans and recoveries, which could possibly be explained by having successfully implemented a travel bubble. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to try to address the identification of COVID-19 travel bubbles in real data. Our methodology and findings lead to several important insights regarding policy making, problems associated with the concept of travel bubbles, and raise interesting avenues for future research.