Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation

An evaluation of the impact of mitigation policies on health and the economy by managing social distancing during outbreaks

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated various unavoidable social restrictions, leading to questions about the effectiveness of public emergency interventions and their impact economic growth. Block et al. (2020) conducted a notably study using an agent-based model to evaluate policies for reducing contact and demonstrated how choices in contact behavior can influence the rate and spread of the virus. However, their approach did not consider the economic consequences of these social restrictions. In response, we propose a set of strategies for governments to plan and evaluate policies during emergencies, aiming to contain infections while minimizing negative economic consequences. Our results indicate that there is no trade-off between containment strategies and economic output loss, making containment measures necessary policy instruments. However, potential trade-offs do emerge when selecting the most effective strategy. In this context, we propose and evaluate various policy alternatives to extreme "social distancing" measures, which can partially restore essential social interactions while preventing economic disasters induced by productivity losses.

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to disruptive events is significant as this highly prevalent category of business forms the economic backbone in developed countries. This article provides an overview of the application of a computational modelling and simulation approach to evaluate SMEs' operational resilience to flooding based on combinations of structural and procedural mitigation measures that may be implemented to improve their premises' resistance to flooding and safeguard their business continuity. The approach integrates flood modelling and simulation with agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) within a modelled geographical environment. SMEs are modelled as agents based on findings of semi-structured interviews with SMEs that have experienced flooding or are at risk of flooding. In this paper, the ABMS has been applied to a new case study of the major flood event of 2007 in Tewkesbury. Furthermore, to enable an evaluation of the operational resilience of manufacturing SMEs in terms of the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures, a new coefficient based on production loss is introduced. Results indicate structural mitigation measures are more effective than procedural measures. While this result is intuitive, the approach provides a means of evaluating the relative effectiveness of combinations of mitigation measures that SMEs may implement to enhance their operational resilience to flooding. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.